PokerWolf1
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Posts posted by PokerWolf1
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Tonight's picks. Each single has £1.31 on and each acca has £2.62 on. Have split them into trebles instead of fourfolds tonight due to the high variance nature of cup matches.
Group A
Sheff Utd -1 (H Walsall) 6/5
Queens Park -1 (H Montrose) 17/10
Empoli -1 (H Cesena) 5/2
Acca - £54.47
Group B
Draw - Gateshead v Tranmere 9/4
Draw - Southport v Solihull 13/5
Draw - Woking v Bromley 13/5
Acca - £110.35
Group C
Dover (A Sutton) 9/5
Brechin (H Ayr) 2/1
Barrow (A Macclesfield) 13/8
Acca - £57.77
Group D
Espanyol (A Alcorcon) 11/8
Eibar (A Gigon) 6/4
Real Betis (H Deportivo) 6/5
Acca - £34.22
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Roll: £130.55
Total Singles: 56
Singles won: 16
Acca's won: 0
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Again unfortunately didn't come close but we will keep going! A real shame about group B and top of the league blowing that for me.
Group A
Preston (H Burton) 21/20
Reading (H Bristol) 13/10 £3.75
Luton (A Exeter) 7/5
Boreham Wood (A Guiseley) 13/10
Acca - £84.85
Group B
Villa -1 (H Cardiff) 9/4 £5.30
Draw - Wimbledon v Fleetwood 12/5 £5.54
Scunthorpe - 1 (H Oxford) 9/4
Doncaster - 1 (H Orient) 15/8 £4.69
Acca - £336.59
Group C
Brentford (H Birmingham) 23/20
Draw - Bury v Millwall 5/2
Yeovil (A Accrington) 14/5
Draw - Eastleigh v Chester 13/5
Acca - £335.59
Group D
Draw - Brighton v Fulham 12/5
Draw - Chesterfield v Bristol 13/5
Draw - Cambridge v Cheltenham 9/4
Draw - Southport v Braintree 23/10
Acca - £427.95
Group E
Bolton (A Northampton) 7/5 £3.91
Peterboro (A Oldham) 13/8 - VOID
Southend (A Walsall) 9/5
Grimsby (A Crawley 6/5)
Acca - £126.51
Group F
Shrewsbury (H Port Vale) 13/10
Barnet (H Notts County) 11/10 £3.42
Lincoln -1 (H Maidstone) 11/10 £3.42
Gateshead (A Woking) 13/10
Acca - £76.05
Group G
Newcastle -2 (H Blackburn) 9/4
Gillingham (H Rochdale) 9/5 £4.56
Crewe (A Colchester) 5/2
Forest Green (A Wrexham) Evens
Acca - £207.66
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39 minutes ago, kevsul said:
Nice attempt, but a look at cash out, i know it's glory or bust... but a cash out for a 3rd of the win, is not bad..... how about looking when cash out is available, to recover the stake, and a small profit, and let the rest run, for a lettle less than the original return... Just a thought
I think in hindsight I should of done this. This might be a very short challenge if I don't take advantage of that kind of thing. It would of course allow me to increase stakes too. Thanks for the feedback I think if one is coming in for a profit tomorrow I will take it and let the others run. There is 7 groups tomorrow after all!
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I didn't fancy ANY bet in the prem tomorrow. Probably hardest set of fixtures to predict I've seen all season. My latest groups have £1.63 on each single and £3.26 on the acca. I'm hoping that seeing as the English leagues are my bread and butter that a profit can be made tomorrow... so without further waffle here are the groups.
Group A
Preston (H Burton) 21/20
Reading (H Bristol) 13/10
Luton (A Exeter) 7/5
Boreham Wood (A Guiseley) 13/10
Acca - £84.85
Group B
Villa -1 (H Cardiff) 9/4
Draw - Wimbledon v Fleetwood 12/5
Scunthorpe - 1 (H Oxford) 9/4
Doncaster - 1 (H Orient) 15/8
Acca - £336.59
Group C
Brentford (H Birmingham) 23/20
Draw - Bury v Millwall 5/2
Yeovil (A Accrington) 14/5
Draw - Eastleigh v Chester 13/5
Acca - £335.59
Group D
Draw - Brighton v Fulham 12/5
Draw - Chesterfield v Bristol 13/5
Draw - Cambridge v Cheltenham 9/4
Draw - Southport v Braintree 23/10
Acca - £427.95
Group E
Bolton (A Northampton) 7/5
Peterboro (A Oldham) 13/8
Southend (A Walsall) 9/5
Grimsby (A Crawley 6/5)
Acca - £126.51
Group F
Shrewsbury (H Port Vale) 13/10
Barnet (H Notts County) 11/10
Lincoln -1 (H Maidstone) 11/10
Gateshead (A Woking) 13/10
Acca - £76.05
Group G
Newcastle -2 (H Blackburn) 9/4
Gillingham (H Rochdale) 9/5
Crewe (A Colchester) 5/2
Forest Green (A Wrexham) Evens
Acca - £207.66
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Roll: £162.79
Total Singles: 28
Singles won: 8
Acca's won: 0
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Day 38 - £938 profit
Another losing day although I am not quite sure how. Took a break yesterday. I haven't got time at the moment to update all the results but I was 1st of 40 in a £1.5k GTD and somehow managed to go out about 30th. KK to J10 (My own bad play) JJ to A8 and then AK to KJ. Also qualified for the main event again and AGAIN didn't knock anyone out. I think this may be the 6th time in a row I haven't even managed to take a head. Ridiculous of me really. A 5th and 7th place in minors helped keep afloat but still very disappointing overall.
I am about to hit £200 rakeback from Sky since I started this so that has certainly helped with bankroll and i seem to be doing ok in cash and DYM tournies which is also providing extra padding. Just wish I could get these tournaments back on track.
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NEAR MISS! A loss on the night but came close to my first one! I was actually offered £105 to cash out Group C but that's not the purpose of the challenge.Considering I posted this in the Glory hunters section it's win big or go bust and that's exactly what I intend to do. Big day tomorrow and I shall put all the group up in a bit.
Group A
Krasnodar (H Salzburg) Evens
Genk (H Rapid Vienna) 23/20 £3.72
Olympiakos -1 (H Young Boys) 13/8
St. Etienne (H Mainz) 13/10
Acca - £89.83
Group B
Nicosia (A Astana) 12/5 They were winning but an early red card saw this one dead...
Qarabag (A Slovan Liberic) 13/10
Draw - Sparta Prague v Southampton 23/10
Draw - Athletico Bilbao v Sassuolo 18/5
Acca - £410.73
Group C
Draw - Celta Vigo v Standard Liege 3/1 £6.92
Draw - Zurich v Villareal 5/2 £6.06
Steaua Bucharest (H Osmanlispor) 6/4 £4.33
Dundalk (H AZ) 21/10 Really thought the price was good enough for Dundalk to continue making history. They gave it a good go but it just wasn't enough.
Acca - £375.41
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Roll - £172.90
Felt there was enough football on tonight to be able to put together a few more groups. A profit looks a big ask on the face of it but lets see how it goes! There is £1.73 on each single and £3.46 on each acca.
Group A
Krasnodar (H Salzburg) Evens
Genk (H Rapid Vienna) 23/20
Olympiakos -1 (H Young Boys) 13/8
St. Etienne (H Mainz) 13/10
Acca - £89.83
Group B
Nicosia (A Astana) 12/5
Qarabag (A Slovan Liberic) 13/10
Draw - Sparta Prague v Southampton 23/10
Draw - Athletico Bilbao v Sassuolo 18/5
Acca - £410.73
Group C
Draw - Celta Vigo v Standard Liege 3/1
Draw - Zurich v Villareal 5/2
Steaua Bucharest (H Osmanlispor) 6/4
Dundalk (H AZ) 21/10
Acca - £375.41
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Bad start. At 80 mins I was looking at a small loss of a couple quid with an acca still possible but then things went terribly! A lot of teams going to be going home disappointed tonight there were some very poor performances out there. So only 4/16 correct..... awful when you think of it that way. Shame I didn't put all 4 in the same group....
Roll down to £172.90
Group A
Portvale (H Oldham) 8/5 LAST MIN GOAL!
Southend (H Swindon) 1/1
Sheff Utd -1 (H Bury) 10/11 Really? The amount of goals scored recently and yet couldn't score until late at home to a team that was down to 10 and then 9 men???
Barrow - 1 (H Guiseley) 11/8 - £4.75
Acca - £94.31 return
Group B
Gillingham (A Oxford) 5/2
Cheltenham (H Colchester) 5/4
CSKA (H Leverkusen) 16/5
Exeter (A Orient) 15/8 - £5.75
Acca - 380.36 return
Group C
Draw - Copenhagen v Porto 11/5 - £6.40
Bolton - 1 (H Coventry) 2/1
Luton (H Portsmouth) 19/10
Bromley (A Braintree) 21/10
Acca - 345.22
Group D
Draw - Sevilla vs Juventus 2/1
Lincoln (A York) 1/1 - £4
Draw - Notts County v Cambridge 12/5
Draw - Hartlepool vs Accrington 12/5
Acca - 277.44 return
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Cheers Skittle. Hoping that's the case and I don't plan to break any more of my own. Just that I did research at 9am and didnt place it til after 12 and lost out on some value. Lesson learnt. Think I duplicated this thread somehow as I posted it. Not sure how to delete it but if you can feel free.
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So here's the first 4. Group A I singled out as what I thought was my most likely chance of a successful 4 fold. There is no thought process behind the other groups, though. I randomly put them together. Hopefully I will win enough back to continue and learn more about what I'm doing - and hopefully come up with some more successful thought processes. There is £2 on all singles and £4 on each acca.
Group A
Portvale (H Oldham) 8/5
Southend (H Swindon) 1/1
Sheff Utd -1 (H Bury) 10/11 ( Yes broke a rule already. As I was researching this price changed from Evens to 10/11. Bit annoying but took it anyway)
Barrow - 1 (H Guiseley) 11/8
Acca - £94.31 return
Group B
Gillingham (A Oxford) 5/2
Cheltenham (H Colchester) 5/4
CSKA (H Leverkusen) 16/5
Exeter (A Orient) 15/8
Acca - 380.36 return
Group C
Draw - Copenhagen v Porto 11/5
Bolton - 1 (H Coventry) 2/1
Luton (H Portsmouth) 19/10
Bromley (A Braintree) 21/10
Acca - 345.22
Group D
Draw - Sevilla vs Juventus 2/1
Lincoln (A York) 1/1
Draw - Notts County v Cambridge 12/5
Draw - Hartlepool vs Accrington 12/5
Acca - 277.44 return
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First one will be tonight!
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I've been thinking about doing a football challenge as I've never done one on here and wanted to get creative. My aim is to win 20 acca's of 4 'outsider' selections... and obviously make a profit!
Rules -
All selections will be Evens or above.
I will start with £200 and bet 1% of roll on each single within the acca, and 2% of the roll on the acca.
Example:
Wolves Home - 5/4 - £2
Leyton Orient Home - 5/4 - £2
Arsenal Away - Evens - £2
Plymouth Away - 6/4 -£2
Acca - £4
I will be doing this every Saturday and any other day there are masses of matches on (Sunday / Tuesday)
I am hoping that the profit from getting a couple singles in will almost cover the loss of an acca losing. I will spend a couple hours before each session weighing it all up and trying to prove I can beat the bookie.
Any advice, criticism or feedback is welcome. I am well aware this will probably be a bust and I take no responsibility for anyone following my selections.
Thanks for reading.
EDIT - The thread title says 100 acca. That's what I want to win... but let's start with 20 first and see how it goes!
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I've been thinking about doing a football challenge as I've never done one on here and wanted to get creative. My aim is to win 20 acca's of 4 'outsider' selections... and obviously make a profit!
Rules -
All selections will be Evens or above.
I will start with £200 and bet 1% of roll on each single within the acca, and 2% of the roll on the acca.
Example:
Wolves Home - 5/4 - £2
Leyton Orient Home - 5/4 - £2
Arsenal Away - Evens - £2
Plymouth Away - 6/4 -£2
Acca - £4
I will be doing this every Saturday and any other day there are masses of matches on (Sunday / Tuesday)
I am hoping that the profit from getting a couple singles in will almost cover the loss of an acca losing. I will spend a couple hours before each session weighing it all up and trying to prove I can beat the bookie.
Any advice, criticism or feedback is all welcome. I am well aware this could be a total bust, though
First one starts tonight!
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Day 37 - £956 profit
Again, Apologies for the update. Had another losing day and took a break for the weekend. Seem to have been down with a Norovirus type illness since!
Hoping to do some more regular updates from next week. 'm also thinking of running a football challenge along side this so look out for that... What I've got in mind there could be disastrous
lol
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Day 36 - £982 Profit
Finally a winning day! Still had some really bad luck throughout the day the one coming with 3 left in one of them which was a shame but I felt overall I played really well.
Not going to play today. I have a free day tomorrow as don't want to risk having a losing day today and not being able to play tomorrow as per my rules
£79.60 worth of tournaments with no cash.
1.6 - sat - won 7.20 seat
2.2 - 3rd - 16.56
3.3 - 5th - 8.70
3.3 - Hilo - 5th - 10.53
5.5 - bounties - 1.88
5.5 - PLO - 2nd - 30
5.5 - 4th - 33.60
7.20 - sat - won 33 seat (busted main)
Hand of the day
Hoping to get some feedback on this one. This happened in a sat with 8 people left. 5 people got the £33 seat and 6th got £14.
Blinds 200/400
Hero - 4800 chips after posting BB. Sitting in 6th place and holding Kh 10h.
Villain - 6500 chips after posting SB. Sharkscope reveals a solid player with a strong profit margin.
History - Villain has raised over 80% of hands from both button and SB. There is a guy on my left who has been sitting out for about half hour and villain has been taking full advantage. Guy sitting out still had 7k.
As usual the action has folded to villain who doubles the blind to 800. Fearing that I need to win a couple hands to secure my place i opt to flat call the extra 400. I don't want to move in here because I don't feel I am at that critical push stage and I really don't want to be called by a shabby ace or a small pair if he is indeed willing to gamble.
The flop is A K 4
Villain bets 800. I decide to flat. I think I'm ahead a lot here and the question will be asked of me as to why I wouldn't just move all in but I was hoping he would just shut down. Of course I should of took his skill level into consideration and known he would not.
The turn is a 3
He moves allin.
I think for a while but know I'm ahead. I'm hesitating on the basis of my recent badbeats and that I might be outdrawn but gut feeling here is I am 100% ahead. I make the call and villain turns over 66. I win the hand and villain blasts me.
Says thats I obv don't care about the money or qualifying with a call like that. I claim it wasn't difficult to work out I was ahead. He said even so it is always a fold in my position on the bubble as he would do that with Ax and even having Ax 10% of the time means it's a fold for me everytime. I argued why would I ever fold if I KNEW I was miles ahead. I'm not talking marginal here. I'm talking I know he has practically NO hand. (I actually thought he had J10 / Q10.)
Now.... I'm confused. I get that I played it in a hesitant way. But why would I fold? I had weighed up the history, added in what felt like desperation on his part for me to fold, and thrown in my gut instinct for good measure. He tried to blind me with the statistical side of it but when did poker players stop playing with their hearts? I could be talking rubbish here but I think there is only so far you can get as a poker player playing like a robot using stats. I've always been a believer in needing to wear your heart on your sleeve sometimes and go with your gut.
Would love to get peoples thoughts.
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Day 34 & 35 - £957 profit
Sorry guys for the lack of updates. I played the first 2 days of MiniUKOPS and couldn't handle the beats any more. Coolers, set ups and 4.5% suck out's became all too much. I decided rather than chase the leaderboard and priority status on tilt it would be better just to give it a rest. So aside from enjoying myself I have spent the last week reviewing my hands, reading some poker literature and turned the 4.5% suckouts into 4.5% beers instead. I'm devastated with the way the last month has gone after doing so well but I can't keep blaming bad luck and bad beats. My own tilt is the cause of a lot of it, something I have always struggled with. So, I have come back with a set of rules to get this back on track and HOPEFULLY not keep going in the downward direction I have been.
1. £50 stop loss. Once I hit £50 loss I will stop for the day.
2. No tournaments over £5.50. Getting a big win from a cheap satellite is my best bet to get back towards target.
3. Any losing day will be followed by a days break. I don't want to feel as though I need to chase yesterday's losses.
I am going to start playing in a bit so hopefully it all goes well!
- andybell666 and avongirl
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Days 32 and 33 - £1114 Profit
Wanted to do an update before MiniUKOPS and determined to get this graph looking a little like my share prices and a little more like where I want them to be!
£248.30 worth of tournaments with no cashes. (includes £110 comp i won entry into)
1.2 - sat - bubbled seat for 2,2
4.8 - sat - won £22 seat
5.2 - sat - won £24 seat which I busted
5.5 - 12th - 13.95
5.5 - bounties - 13.7
7.7 - 8th - 29.49
7.7 - bounties - 6.56
11 - 6th - 26.91
11 - 18th - 25.92
22 - 35th - 37.71
22 - bounties - 16.88
22 - bounties - 16.88
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Thanks guys. I played the first couple of UKOPS and and had a nasty outdraw from a reg with about 20 left in one of them. Since then I have been enjoying other parts of life and taking a few days break. I think the amount I was playing during a time I was just getting frustrated was rather stupid and I needed to refresh and give it a rest.
So this week has been all about work, football, beer and fireworks! Took the little one to a firework show down my local and ended up seeing my Grandad who I haven't seen for 25 years due to a family fallout! Pretty mental. We shared a few bitters together which was nice.
A woman got hit across the face by a kid with a metal bar ouside the pub. Walked back in with a bleeding brow and said 'Carlsberg please'. Such is life in the area I now live in lol
Yesterday slumped down to watch the circus that is Wolves. Needless to say I needed a few carlsbergs myself after it. (Yes, I'm cheap...) I feel good today, though. I may go for a few sats for the main event tonight. If not I plan to play EVERY MiniUKOPS event which starts Monday and runs through Sunday. I plan to take a shot at the leaderboard but I know how hard that will be. Some very good regs on Sky. And I also plan to take a crack at becoming a priority member as Sky is running a promotion on triple points for the next few months. See how that goes.
Needless to say my graph is looking pretty sorry for itself and needs an injection of win. Hopefully this break will have helped. Woodie, nice to see a fellow PL member at the tables. Feel free to say hi if we meet.
LETS DO THIS!
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Day 30 and 31 - £1287 profit
This has been the hardest spell I've ever had to deal with on Sky. My graph looks destroyed taking a swing of £500 from peak to bottom over the latest games but fingers crossed I'm getting back on track. Felt I played well yesterday. Had two bubbles which would of made the graph look a lot better but a combination of coolers and invincibility granted to the short stacks meant it wasn't to be.The one bubble I'm happy I didn't get though was for UKOPS 11. I qualified last night by the skin of my teeth for a £110 event with a £25k GTD on Sunday which will hopefully contribute to a massive bulk of this challenge being completed. Of cours that extra £100 on the graph is making it look better than it actually is at the moment... UKOPS starts today with 4 events. I intend to play both £22 events but will be trying to sat into the others. Luckily for my bankroll I have been up a decent bit playing cash over the last week which has softened the blow personally of this downswing.
£154.40 worth of tournaments with no cashes.
1.1 - rebuy x2 - 4th - 11.34
3.3 - bounties - 1.13
3.3 - 7th - 6.68
4.4 - sat - won £22 seat
5.2 - sat - won £24 seat
6 x 5.5 - bounties - 15.14
5.5 - 5th - 25.74
22 - bounties - 9.38
22 - 8th - 76.71
24 - sat - won £110 seat
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Days 27, 28 and 29 - £1268 profit
Mentally this is getting really difficult now. I am constantly making it to places just a couple before the money and then getting bad beated to hell. Had a really sick time in the last week with outdraws and downswings and it's getting harder by the day to cope. But I really want to just grin and bare it, and play through it like any professional would find themselves having to. Yesterday I was in the final 8 of both a 5.50 and 11 with 6 paid in both and I was 2nd in both. I ended up going out 8th in both, to chip leader who decided to tangle with me in both rooms at the same time. First one calling a 3 bet pre, and then a 3 bet allin on the 9 high flop with K9 rivering my AA with the K. (He ended up going out 7th!!!!!) And in the other room similar thing except this time I had KK and the villain had 22 and this time I called his 4 bet allin pre and the 2 hit. This seems constant at the moment and I am going into each allin with dread, expecting that the 1 outer is going to hit each time. UKOPS starts this Friday and though I won't be able to afford / commit / sat into a lot of the events I intend to play as many as I can for the leaderboard promotion they have on. After UKOPS is the MiniUkOPS in which I intend to play ALL events (barring possibly Saturdays) and really try and win the leaderboard. I'm just hoping the luck evens out before then. Shame that SharkScope has taken off the £66 that Sky gave me free as a loss but I am still convinced I will smash this challenge anyway.
£145.10 worth of tournaments with no cashes.
1.6 - sat - bubbled seat - 1.44
1.6 - sat - won 7.20 seat which I busted
5.5 - bounties - 4.22
5.5 - bounties - 1.88
5.5 - bounties - 3.76
5.5 - 8th - 19.35
5.5 - 6th - 34.32
5.5 - bounties - 3.76
7.7 - bounties - 2.63
7.7 - bounties - 4.58
11 - bounties - 3.75
11 - 4th - 38.20
12 - sat - bubbled seat for 11
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Day 26 - £1363 profit
From bad to worse. Can't hit as thing let alone cash something decent. Won a forum comp for a £33 entry too which has been taken off my profit even though it was a free entry for me. Oh well... just have to make it back. It'll come.... I'm sure of it. I have another free £33 entry for either tonight or tomorrow too. So I best cash this time!
£150.80 worth of tournaments with no cashes
4.8 - sat - won £22 seat which I busted
4.8 - sat - bubbled the seat for £13.20
5.5 - bounties - 3.27
5.5 - bounties - 6.57
7.7 - 10th - 26.36 (FINALLY CASHED THIS AT THE 14th ATTEMPT!!)
Beat the bookie - 100 Acca or bust
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Another loss for about £7. Espanyol denied us our first acca win as they couldn't find a winner against 'lesser' opposition.
Group A
Sheff Utd -1 (H Walsall) 6/5 (Think I have single handed caused Sheff to have a bad run)
Queens Park -1 (H Montrose) 17/10 £3.54
Empoli -1 (H Cesena) 5/2
Acca - £54.47
Group B
Draw - Gateshead v Tranmere 9/4
Draw - Southport v Solihull 13/5 £4.72
Draw - Woking v Bromley 13/5
Acca - £110.35
Group C
Dover (A Sutton) 9/5 3.67
Brechin (H Ayr) 2/1
Barrow (A Macclesfield) 13/8 VOID
Acca - £57.77
Group D
Espanyol (A Alcorcon) 11/8
Eibar (A Gigon) 6/4 £3.28
Real Betis (H Deportivo) 6/5 £2.88
Acca - £34.22