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four-leaf

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  1. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28   
    Rabat - Bronzetti to beat Stephens - 2.9 with Betfair
    Sloane isn't reliable enough on clay still to be this price. She's the better player but almost lost today and played the #237 ranked Babos and unranked Zvonareva in previous rounds. 
    Bronzetti isn't as experienced but has reached the SF here last year and has reached a clay final at Palermo before so hopefully nerves don't hit her too much. Worth a shot at 2.9 with Sloane being in the form she's in. 
  2. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28   
    WTA Rabat - Rakhimova to beat Parks - 1.67 with Betfair
    Parks is only half decent indoors and it was a close second set for her to beat Tikhonova ranked #236. Parks has lost 10 of her last 13 on clay when an underdog. Rakhimova on the other hand has won her last five matches as favourite on clay and all in straight sets. She's had a positive clay record for five of the last six years and should get past Parks today. 
     
     
  3. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28   
    WTA Strasbourg - Davis to beat Tomova - 1.94 with Betfair
    Davis beat Tomova a few weeks ago on clay. Tomova did win an 80K on clay last month but since then results have been mixed with losses to Burel and Grabher. Davis lost her first match on clay this year to Sebov but after that has lost to Cirstea twice and Cocciaretto. 
    I think this is a case of higher level player Davis against the one with the clay court experience. Davis is in slightly better form in the last few weeks including already beating Tomova where she was 1.71 at the start of the match. 
     
  4. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28   
    Navarro has been great recently
  5. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28   
    WTA Strasbourg - Navarro to beat Teichmann - 2.12 with Betfair.
    No time to write up sorry. 
  6. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Swami in Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28   
    Friedsam vs. Blinkova @1.67 
    Blinkova latest results on clay are not very good imo, she won a match in Rome vs. Sherif that was in complete control of the match and then choked, in the 1R here gave away a set to Hesse… ALF played a great match in Rome against Badosa, then lost badly to Yuan in Paris and yesterday gave a double bagel to Zhan (who is losing to anyone, so that doesn’t mean a lot). It’s a bet more against Blinkova, counting on ALF grit to stay focused on the important points of the match
  7. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28   
    Heather Watson (+5.5) to beat Olga Danilovic at 1.87 with Pinnacle
    John Jeffrey Wolf to beat Hugo Dellien at 1.77 with Unibet
    Danilovic won the ITF tournament in Madrid, and the odds for her against Watson are an over-reaction to that. The conditions will be different in Paris, she hasn't had much rest, and Watson is a decent enough opponent, so the handicap line looks a touch high to me here. Meanwhile, Wolf looked surprisingly good in Rome, and Dellien is a bit of a tourist nowadays.
  8. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - May 22 - May 28   
    Emiliana Arango (-3.5) to beat Himeno Sakatsume at 2.02 with Pinnacle
    Arango has played herself into a very solid form, having faced some good opposition, while Sakatsume hasn't really played outside ITFs so far this season, and she hasn't played in Europe yet, either. I'd be quite surprised to see a different outcome than Arango win here, hopefully it's by a decent margin as well!
  9. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    Yes I meant a long time ago by the matches she's played this week before today. To bad you came on to late with Parry, she's had quite good prices on her this week.
  10. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    WTA Paris - Volynets to beat Cornet - 1.94 with Betfair
    Cornet who will surely retire soon has been in crap form this year. This is the first time she's reached a third round or further this year and lost 6-0 6-2 to the #156 a couple of weeks ago. 
    Volynets is at the other end of her career and on the way up mostly. She reached the SF in Saint Malo at the start of this month and took a set off Cirstea in Rome. Volynets averages over 70% first serves and Cornet has lost 5/6 against players hitting an average of 70% first serves in, also, in four of those five defeats she was the favourite. 
     
     
  11. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    Got lucky with this one 😂
  12. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    WTA Florence - Paolini to beat Yastremska - 2.24 with Betfair
    Both players don't favour clay but Paolini leads the h2h 4-1 (none on clay) and playing at home. Paolini pushed Rybakina for a close first set before losing so that would have given her confidence. 
    Yastremska won 6-3 7-5 against the number 296 wild card entry and still gave up 8 break points and with her opponent winning 59% first serve points and just 36% second serve points, Yastremska could only win 4/9 break points herself. 
    I think Paolini is worth a shot at these odds. 
  13. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    WTA Rome Rybakina to beat Swiatek 5.1 with Betfair 
     
    Swiatek should win on her fave surface but 5.1 is too big for Rybakina even though its on clay. 
  14. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    WTA Rome - Ostapenko to beat Badosa - 2.6 with Spreadex
    This one is on Ostapenko's racket. She can fire everything and beat everyone or throw it all away. Badosa has improved recently but Penko has been firing more than not this week and 2.6 looks a good price for a player who is 6-7 as underdog since the start of last year (2-2 on clay).
  15. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    Yue Yuan to beat Diane Parry at 2.20 with William Hill
    I think there's some value in backing Yuan to get another upset in Paris. She beat the very dangerous Friedsam quite comfortably in the previous round, while Parry struggled against Janicijevic, and she hasn't been in any sort of form pretty much since the start of the year. The Paris conditions are pretty specific, and it seemed to me yesterday that Parry isn't a big fan.
  16. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    Veronika Kudermetova to beat Marie Bouzkova at 1.57 with William Hill
    Good win for Bouzkova in the previous round, but Kudermetova is in a very good nick at the moment, having lost only against Swiatek, which is no shame. Despite her high ranking, I think that she's still a bit underrated honestly, she's like top 5 for me when in a form like this. Bouzkova was struggling massively not that long ago, and I don't see her getting two big wins back-to-back here.
  17. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 15 - May 21   
    Posted last night in last week's thread so copied it here. 
    WTA Rome - Haddad Maia to beat Osorio - 1.81 with Betfair
     
    Haddad Maia is levels above Osorio who is having a storming week. Maia is 55-18 on clay since the start of 2021 so she's no slouch on the dirt. Osortio got through mainly because Garcia had a mental breakdown during the match. She's now been on court for almost 8 and three quarter hours in Rome and Haddad Maia will be the toughest test she's faced yet. 
     
    WTA Rome - Kasatkina to beat Ostapenko - 2.44 with Betfair
     
    Kasatkina had a tough time against Grabher who was hitting everything well today. Ostapenko routed Krejcikova who fell apart when winning 5-1 in the first set and too much credit is being given to Ostapenko for this I think. She should be a slight favourite but Penko needs to be firing to win and that doesn't always happen. Kasatkina grinded her way through that match and served well from the bits I saw. She will need to serve well to not drop the ball in Penkos striking area but 2.44 is good for me to back her to win. 
  18. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 8 - May 14   
    WTA Rome - Martic to beat Osorio - 1.8 with Betfair
    Martic is the better player here, Osorio has dropped back down the rankings a bit since her HC points from 2022 came off (Finals in Tenerife and Monterrey). Osorio lost to Lauren Davis last time out on clay, in straight sets. She has come through qualifying here but has now spent more than five and a half hours on court in the last three days. 
    Martic won't be blasting her away and leaving Osorio to look for errors. She'll be mixing it up and moving her around the court with her all court game. Martic leads the way in clay only rankings #20 to Osorio's #117 and I think she will have too much for her today (or tomorrow with rain :))
    Martic's last two defeats on clay were against Swiatek and Potapova, both higher level players than Osorio. 1.8 looks like value to me. I think she'll start the match under 1.7. 
  19. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Swami in Tennis Tips - May 8 - May 14   
    Tomorrow (Wednesday) is gonna rain for many hours in Rome and there will be rain also in the next days, the courts (when and if they will be able to play) will be slower than today.
  20. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 8 - May 14   
    WTA Rome - Parrizas Diaz to beat Niemeier - 2.34 with Betfair
    Niemeier horribly out of form. She lost 7/8 before Madrid where she beat Wang and an injured Kvitova before losing to Mertens. I can't see that being the start of a run of form. Her last tour win before that was back in February when she beat Kenin indoors. 
    Parrizas Diaz had a shocker last time out losing to Mandlik but before that defeat she was 10-2 only losing to Kudermetova in Madrid and SST on the clay. 
    I feel this is another one that should be more 50/50. Maybe Niemeier has the slight advantage but 2.34 seems like a bit of value for me on Parrizas Diaz. 
  21. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 8 - May 14   
    WTA Rome Qualies - A. Konjuh to beat O. Danilovic - 2.2 with Betfair
    Another close match up that I put more at 50/50. Recent form is mixed, Konjuh lost her last four outings all on clay but the lowest ranked player she faced was #101 and had close matches in the last three, with two tie breaks against Navarro and Grabher and a three setter against Parks. 
    Danilovic has gone 2-2 with her last four matches, also all on clay. A three set loss against Frech is no shame but she lost 2 & 1 to the #412 before that. 
    Konjuh had the slightly better recent form against the better players even though she lost those matches. Konjuh is also 26-9 vs lefties (of which Danilovic is one) and this record is 6-0 on clay, so 2.2 is a bit of value for me. Could go either way so lets take the odds against. 
    Credit in the bank today already after Bejlek won quite easily this morning. 
     
  22. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 8 - May 14   
    WTA Rome Qual. Bejlek to beat Birrell @2.12 with Betfair
    I make this a 50/50 shot so a bit of value with Bejlek. Birrell is the slightly higher quality player but she's 25 and has only played 40 matches on clay in her career, she's won over 70% of her points on hard court. 
    Bejlek is only 17 years old and has already played almost double the amount of clay court matches (55-23). They both have a couple of 60K titles in the last couple of years but Birrell's on HC and Bejlek's were on clay. 
     
  23. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 1 - May 7   
    ITF Bonita Springs - Day to beat Li - @2.5 on Betfair
    Both playing well this week but Day leads the head to head including winning last month in straight sets against Li on clay. Day has climbed the rankings slightly this year, Li has dropped about 60 places. 
    I would make Day a bit shorter, she was 2.6 ish when she beat her last month.
  24. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Smiles Tennis in Tennis Tips - May 1 - May 7   
    WTA St Malo Final - Minnen to beat Stephens @2.46 on Betfair. 
    Sloane got past Svitolina yesterday but all she had to do was just put the ball back in play and Svitolina would hit the net or hit long most of the time. Minnen is levels below a fit and sharp Svitolina but she's in form at the moment. 30-7 for the year and 7-1 on clay. She's beaten Liu and Navarro here as underdog and I am hoping won't be making the amount of errors Svitolina made. 
    I think she will be forcing Sloane to go for more winners and that didn't come off too well yesterday, she made a few winners but plenty of errors. I would have put Stephens with a similar chance today, a lower standard opponent but more in form. 
    I think Minnen is worth a shot at this price. 
  25. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - May 1 - May 7   
    Elina Svitolina (-1.5 sets) to beat Leolia Jeanjean at 1.94 with Unibet
    This time around, I'll actually be backing Svitolina, as Jeanjean doesn't seem to have the weapons that are required to trouble her. She's far too erratic from the back of the baseline, she doesn't have a great serve, and she typically lacks confidence as well. She's just a completely different match-up than Bonaventure was, and one that should suit Svitolina.
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