four-leaf

The thread has been here since the start of the week . Now for the bets - I had a look at Montanes over Karlovic myself, but I decided against it after some thinking, Montanes has gone cold again and Karlovic has produced some very good results in the French Open already surprisingly. As for Brown, I'd never back him as the favourite and certainly not on clay, Sela is much more consistent than him, which counts for a lot over 5 sets. I agree with you about Kasatkina and Vesnina, at least one of those will come in imo. Safarova also I reckon, unless she gets nervous from all the pressure given that she's the defending finalist. Diatchenko is really poor right now, however, so it shouldn't matter so much, might actually have a small bet myself now that you've turned my attention to it. The bet on Anderson would be a big no-no to me, however, can see Robert winning it actually given their respective forms. He always plays his heart out at home and Anderson isn't back yet imo.

BASILASVILI VS EDMUND
It is nice to see all our regular tipsters back on board at the start of what should be an interesting marathon. I on my part will try and start strong and try and maintain a strong winning tempo. Without any long rap Basilashvili is playing well as has been rightfully mentioned. The two players seem to be on a similar level, but I really think Edmund stands out in terms of being the better player by pedegree. He is also the fresher and more resolute. Basilasvili may try to hang on somehow, but I see Edmund finally pulling away. I really think if Edmund gels well here early, he could really build a command some decent respect for himself. Britain all the way here!!!

Albert Montanes to beat Ivo Karlovic @ 2.02 Marathonbet (1 pt)
Two veterans slug it out for a place in round two at Roland Garros, and whilst Montanes can certainly be described as a clay court specialist the same can't be said for Karlovic. His game relies heavily on serve and his serve will be blunted here, and on top of that he really has no form to speak of so far this season. Montanes isn't in great form by any stretch, but he's been playing consistently these past few months in contrast to Karlovic and over five sets I think I would just about have him as the favourite so at a shade over evens I'll back the Spaniard in this one.
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Kyle Edmund @ 2.50 bet365 (1 pt)
Basilashvili is on something of a roll on clay right now, having won his last eight matches on the surface. That run has seen him pick up a Challenger title and negotiate qualifying here, and he's beaten some good clay court players along the way. Edmund was also going along nicely until he was forced to retire from his last match with an ankle injury, and as much as he's probably had enough time to recover there are question marks in my mind. If he was hoping for a match that would allow him to ease his way into the tournament then I think he's struck out, as Basilashvili has momentum behind him and must be full of confidence right now.
Cagla Buyukakcay to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich @ 1.57 1xBet (1 pt)
I think this is an acceptable price for a player who's bang in form right now. Buyukakcay has only lost once in her last ten matches, winning a tournament on clay in her home country of Turkey and making it through the Roland Garros qualifying rounds. She'll have a good chance of getting another win under her belt against a player in Sasnovich who can't seem to get anything going right now. The Belarusian hasn't put two wins together since the switch to clay and confidence must be low, and whilst she might be able to take a set I think Buyukakcay will have enough to make the next round.

Hello my friends... Big day today as the second grand salm of the year gets underway with a lot of history on the line and in the making.... 
Anyway I was checking out some first round betting action on bet365 and these two matches caught my eye... 
Donald Young @ 2.10 v Teymuraz Gabashvil
This makes not much sense as the odds should have been 1.9 v 1.9 or something like that or maybe Young should have been a slight favourite. The reason being the poor form of Gabashvili (1-9 last 10) and also the fact that Young has already beaten Gabashvili on clay, albeit at a challanger event, in 2013. This may not be a strong bet but seems value. 
 
Dudi Sela @ 2.62 v Dustin Brown
Here neither is a decent clay courter but pricing Brown as such a huge favourite in a grand slam against a decent opponent in Sela makes not much sense. Brown is so inconsistent he's lost challenger matches to absolute nobodies. There is a reason why he is still a qualifier at any tournament above 500. 
Well before placing either of these bets I would like to know the opinion of my fellow bettors especially CzechPunter... What do you think everyone? 

Back Andy Murray to win the 2016 French Open for a 4/10 stake at 5.00 with Paddy Power
Back Laslo Djere to beat Jordan Thompson for a 7/10 stake at 1.67 with Unibet
Call me crazy, but I'd much rather be on Murray at 5.00 than on Djokovic at 1.90 - not only does the Serb have a fairly hard draw, but he wasn't all that great in Rome either (apart from a few very bright moments against Nadal). In the match betting, it's just Djere for me for Sunday. He's a better clay court player than Thompson and he has three qualifying wins under the belt as well, so I wouldn't have him above 1.44 in all honesty.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/zMjeGO

Back Amandine Hesse to beat Taylor Townsend for a 7/10 stake at 3.25 with Paddy Power
Back Kurumi Nara to beat Denisa Allertova for a 7/10 stake at 2.28 with Unibet
Back Kristyna Pliskova to beat Teliana Pereira for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power
Wanted to take some outrights, but nothing caught my eye unfortunately, so that's that. In the match betting, however, I have three underdogs that I like. Townsend is still unproven on European clay and Hesse isn't poor by any means, so the 3.25 that's on offer for her looks to big to me. Allertova hasn't played since Miami and she was also ill recently, so I have no idea how she's the favourite against Nara, while Pereira is in such a mess at the moment that I like the 2.50 for Pliskova.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/8oJVu7

Great the new thread... Well my early thoughts are Vitalia Diatchenko/Lucie Safarova under 18.00 games or under 17.5 at Pinnaclesports respectively bet365 and I've got my eyes on Albert Montanes to beat Ivo Karlovic on either bookie and I pick between bet365 and Pinnaclesports now since that's where I have my money. Another thought of mine is Daria Kasatkina to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam in straight sets and I'm also thinking about taking the risk of Elena Vesnina to beat Madison Brengle in straight sets. Brengle is not at her best on clay but Vesnina can really play on clay although I think it's not her favourite surface. I saw Anna-Lena Friedsam against Annika Beck and she really can blame only herself for losing that match. She was quite awful. I struggle to see how Friedsam can be able to win a set against Daria Kasatkina. Daria beat her in Indian Wells this season in straight sets and can do so again. 
I've also taken Dustin Brown to beat Dudi Sela and last but not least Kevin Anderson to beat Stephane Robert in straight sets. Kevin Anderson have beaten Robert before in straight sets in RG first round and it was 2 years ago and can very well happen again. Kevin has played decent tennis lately and Stephane does'nt get any younger although he did a quite ok job in Rome, qualifying and taking out Aljaz Bedene and pushing Djokovic.
The following bets are all placed already except Vesnina -1.5 sets.
Vitalia Diatchenko/Lucie Safarova under 18.00 games at 1.90 with Pinnaclesports or under 17.5 at 2.00 with bet365
Dustin Brown to beat Dudi Sela at 1.55 with Pinnaclesports
Quite simple - Qualifier against not so good clay player. I think Sela can win a set since he's taken at least a set in his last matches on clay so no bet on the set handicap but Brown should take this although he is also not a clay courter.
Elena Vesnina to beat (-1.5 sets) Madison Brengle at 2.21 with Pinnaclesports
Daria Kasatkina to beat (-1.5 sets) Anna-Lena Friedsam at 2.09 with Pinnaclesports
Albert Montañes to beat Ivo Karlovic at 2.00 with bet365
Kevin Anderson to beat (-2.5 sets) Stephane Robert at 3.54 with Pinnaclesports

A couple of outright bets to get me started at Roland Garros.
Rafael Nadal to win The French Open @ 6.5 Coral (1 pt)
If memory serves, Nadal was about this price last year when he wasn't playing as well as he is now so that immediately arouses my interest. Coming into this tournament the Spaniard has won in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, and has only lost to Djokovic and Murray since the tour returned to European clay. Those two are obviously his biggest rivals and are ahead of him in the betting, but Djokovic was strangely subdued in Rome and I continue to have reservations about Murray's mentality when it comes to this slam, which is arguably the most difficult to win as it is so demanding. Nadal's level certainly dropped last season, but he appears to be in the ascendency once again and you can always count on him when it comes to effort and attitude. Can Nadal complete his own version of 'La Decima'? I wouldn't put it past him, particularly if Djokovic buckles under the pressure of trying to win here for the first time.
Serena Williams to win The French Open @ 5.0 Unibet (1 pt)
Not an original choice it's fair to say, but as Unibet have boosted this price I think it's worth taking. For the most part, Williams continues to dominate the rest of the WTA and she warmed up for this tournament with a fairly straightforward win at the Rome Masters. That should mean she is in good shape and ready to hit the ground running here, and in all honesty I don't see anyone that is playing well enough right now to beat the American. It's possible that she could slump in a match as we've seen before, and it's possible that an Azarenka or a Halep could step up and deliver a knock-out performance but based on recent tournaments I wouldn't want to bet on it. Like Nadal, Williams is going for her own slice of history and I think this could be the tournament where she finally draws level with Graf on 22 Grand Slam Singles titles.
I'm also going to have a 1pt punt on Nadal/S Williams in the Winning Double market on Betfair at odds of 25.

Back Dominic Thiem (-3.5) to beat Alexander Zverev for a 7/10 stake at 1.95 with Unibet
Can't see past Thiem here, I really can't - and chances are that it's going to be a fairly easy win as well. Zverev was tiring towards the end of his match with Sousa and Thiem is just crushing everyone here, so it's the games handicap line that I'm going to go for on Saturday. Also, it will be Zverev's first ATP final - and better players failed to deliver under such circumstances.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/mCe46I

Mariana Duque-Marino to beat Kiki Bertens @ 2.83 Marathonbet (1 pt)
I'm not sure Bertens should be such a big favourite in this match. Duque-Marino has been upsetting the odds all week at this tournament and is very much at home on clay, and whilst you could argue Bertens has beaten better players to get to this final, Duque-Marino has beaten some in-form players during her run. The Colombian also beat Bertens in their only previous meeting last year, and although fatigue could play a part as Duque-Marino had to play two matches today, Bertens also might not be fresh having played the qualifying rounds here.

ZVEREV VS SOUSA
On the face of things Zverev looks the most likely to progress based on current form and also the way he dug deep to get out of jail against Simon. However I have come to realize that it takes more than superficiality and impressionisms to arrive at the winner in an indulgence that gets more complex by the minute. I will go with my own little theory to prevail over every other theory that has been put forward - Zverev has more to gain from the French Open than Sousa. Winning one or two more games at the cost of an early exit, can not really be an appropriate plan going into next week and with barely two days to go. This has Sousa's name written all over it who is a total different proposition from the very passive Simon. I even still think Sousa wins without the already made excuses for Zverev. I will take Sousa to win comfortably . Good luck!!

Yeas, and it was time in 2:0 2nd set to back Razzano with 12.0

Razzano - Vesnina 4.0 (now 3.8)
Vesnina has very good year but Razzano is in-form just now. And last year show won in Strasburg over Vesnina. H2H is 2:2. Puig and Vesnina are slightly similar players in quality and style. And Razzano was able to play with Puig and be better. Injury of Puig was sudden after Razzano's break in 3rd set

Mirjana Lucic-Baroni to beat Pauline Parmentier for a 7/10 stake at 1.70 with Pinnaclesports
Like I've said I will go for Mirjana against Pauline. Mirjana is 2-0 lifetime against Pauline and does'nt choke like Sloane Stephens. This should be a good bet.

Now thinking about backing Mirjana Lucic-Baroni against Pauline Parmentier who just did'nt win the match against Sloane Stephens because of her great defense. She did'nt win the match against Sloane because she was outplaying her, she was only defending and letting Sloane miss the court or just strike a winner when Sloane was off balance. Mirjana has enough motivation to do well a week before a grand slam. No danger to see her suddenly lose 5-6 points in a row like Sloane in the decider. I mean it was 4-3 and Sloane was serving for 5-3 and was 40-0 up and manage to get broken. So typically awful display from a player like Sloane who does'nt care one bit about winning a clay tournament.

Just can't belive the crap coming from Sloane. She was 3-0 up in decider with double break and 4-3 up with break and still manage to lose the match. Wow she's just incredible unbackable in Roland Garros as mutch as she misses the court. My cat would hit the court with more accuracy. She really should have won that match with a break in the decider and I think I really should have won that bet but that's how tennis goes. Hard to know that Sloane would be the way she was tonight. 

You did'nt ask me but since I also had a bet on Kristina since yesterday I think she was a great pick. She also had a 3-0 head2head advantage over Alison and they met twice last season where Kristina won both in straight sets and one of the matches where played in Strasbourg and now she's beaten Alison in Strasbourg twice. She struck two convincing winners in the tie-break today and that proved to be the difference.
Anyway I like...
Sloane Stephens (-3.5) to beat Pauline Parmentier for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with bet365
Sloane has an advantage in the head2head winning their only meeting in Miami 2012. Also in 2012 Sloane reached the semi of Strasbourg. I think she's got enough game for clay and will edge Parmentier in either 3 sets or easy straight sets. If 3 sets are to be played it should be one loapsided one where Parmentier is being blown off the court. I just don't dare to take Sloane in straight sets but she should cover the handicap. The one and only meeting in Miami was when Sloane where just 19 years old and she's way better player now.

Andrey Rublev to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 2.62 with bet365
What an excellent price on Rublev. Ofcourse there are surely better prices to be found but I'll settle with this one and hope for a nice cashout. Andrey is the man to beat in these qualies. I don't know mutch about how Andrey or Jan-Lennard has been playing so far in the qualies but they both overcame some hurdles to get this far winning in deciders. Andrey beating Jan Satral ranked 205 and Jan-Lennard beating Benjamin Mitchell 238. Value is clearly with the younger russian in this one. It's more of a 50/50 match so the odds should be equal. I like the standard level of Andreys game and he will probably be a bigger star then Jan-Lennard in the future although he is not anywhere near starquality yet but his game is at the moment good enough to qualify for French open. The odds seems to be influated by the rankings in this one where Jan-Lennard is 102 and Andrey 182 but there is an 8 year age difference too so I would'nt read into their rankings at all since Andrey will most likely improve on that already this year I can imagine. Andreys career high is 154 reached 21st of mars this season and he is bound to improve on that. Anyway I'm taking Andrey here since that's where the value is.

New this forum after reading for quite some time. My first selection is Mladenovic 8/11 to beat Riske. I think Mladenovic is far stronger on the clay and the price represents excellent opportunity to make some £££.

Back Leonardo Mayer (+1.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power
Like these odds (most other bookies have the bet at 1.80), as Thiem might not be fully focused on this event, while Mayer means business by the looks of things, as he fought well in the first round. Moreover, he's yet to walk away empty-handed as far as his matches against Thiem are concerned - and the two have already met on four occasions.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/xTaj1B

Back Victor Estrella to beat Joao Sousa for a 7/10 stake at 2.75 with Unibet
Can't see how Estrella is a 2.75 shot here, Sousa is on such a bumpy ride at the moment that he's just not a worthy favourite here. Estrella crushed Kudla in the first round, he's on more or less the same level as Sousa playing wise, and he's also one of those players that you rarely doubt in terms of motivation.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/6EzaFA

Misaki Doi to beat Johanna Konta @ 4.05 Pinnacle (1 pt)
I think there's some value in this price. Both players were on losing streaks ahead of this tournament, and both players have strung a couple of wins together here and beaten good players in the last round. Doi has never beaten Konta in three previous meetings so that speaks against the Japanese, but none of those matches were on clay and her confidence must be high after her win against French Open finalist Safarova. It's fair to say that Konta will also be on a high after her demolition job against Vinci, but even taking that into account I think she's too short and should be taken on in this one.

Back Stanislas Wawrinka (-3.5) to beat Juan Monaco for a 7/10 stake at 1.80 with Paddy Power
Back Thomaz Bellucci (+1.5 sets) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 5/10 stake at 4.35 with 10Bet
Wawrinka has an excellent record against Monaco and he's looking good at the moment, so I fancy him to get the 3.5 games line covered tomorrow. Given how Djokovic played today, I can also see Bellucci taking a set off him - after all, he's already managed to do that on two separate occasions.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/ZBWmTr

I agree with Czech's picks for tomorrow, but instead of playing the handicaps I'm going to back Wawrinka to win @ 1.32 with Tempobet and Bellucci to win @ 18 on the exchanges for a point each.
Roger Federer to beat Dominic Thiem @ 1.59 1xBet (1 pt)
I quite like Federer here. I get that he isn't in great form and has had injury problems which might put some people off backing him, but for me those are some of the reasons I want to back him. With the French Open looming on the horizon, the Swiss is sure to want to go deep this week. He's already seen off one talented youngster in Zverev, and I think he can get the better of Thiem for the second time this season. The Austrian hasn't beaten anyone of Federer's calibre for some time now, and losing to Del Potro last week when the Argentinian still isn't at his best makes me think that Federer might win this even if he isn't in top gear.
Nick Kyrgios to beat Rafael Nadal @ 4.05 Marathonbet (1 pt)
What I like about Kyrgios is that he is fearless. He'll go after anyone and so Nadal won't faze him, despite the Spaniard's recent upturn in form. That's enough for me to throw a point at him in this match, but what also persuades me is the good results the Australian has had this clay swing. Wins over Wawrinka and Cuevas show that he knows what he's doing on the dirt, and it doesn't hurt when you know you've beaten Nadal before which Kyrgios has.

Czech Zverev is not Russian he is German and I know that you know he is but just pointing out your miss in the typing.