four-leaf

Flipkens - Konjuh 2.90
Great odd as for me.
* They have played once, this year in Auckland. Konjuh won in tight match with 1.9 odd for Flipkens. And now is 2.9? As for me, Flipkens is not in so bad form like odds show.
* Konjuh is horrible in Miami 1:2 (Urzsula Radw. and Bertens defeated her)
* Flipkens can play in Miami very well. She won with Kvitova. Defeated by Sharapova and A.Radwanska in three sets and has positive history there.
* Flipkens won with Brady from Brady's MP. That' great for positive attitude.
Fair odd is 2.0 for Kirsten imo.

My main pick for today is Dzumhur @1,751 (Pin)
Chung is struggling with defeats against Coppejans and Kozlov, while Dzumhur reached the QF in Miami and Dubai (with a win against Wawrinka).

Ahead of the qualies in about 60min
Marius Copil to beat Reilly Opelka at 1.74 with Pinnaclesports
Two big servers where one is in form and one out of form. Marius is the one in quite a good form and it's hard to go against him with out of form Reilly on the other side. Doesn't matter that Reilly has home advantage, I have to go for Marius anyway.
Ernesto Escobedo to beat (-1.5) Denis Kudla at 2.05 with Pinnaclesports
Head to head reads Ernesto has one win against Denis in straight sets 6-4 6-4 as he won in a challenger final in Monterrey on hardcourt last season. Ernesto can defenitely cover this handicap again.

Ahead of the qualies in about 60min
Marius Copil to beat Reilly Opelka at 1.74 with Pinnaclesports
Two big servers where one is in form and one out of form. Marius is the one in quite a good form and it's hard to go against him with out of form Reilly on the other side. Doesn't matter that Reilly has home advantage, I have to go for Marius anyway.
Ernesto Escobedo to beat (-1.5) Denis Kudla at 2.05 with Pinnaclesports
Head to head reads Ernesto has one win against Denis in straight sets 6-4 6-4 as he won in a challenger final in Monterrey on hardcourt last season. Ernesto can defenitely cover this handicap again.

Things certainly will be interesting with Murray and Djokovic out!
 

I think Buyukakcay is overpriced @4,58 (Pinn.)
Yes, she didn't win a single match this season, but she is playing better and better, giving Ozaki and Golubic a fight.
Kontaveit is doing well, but still I think Buyukakcay can make it hard for her.

Yuichi Sugita to beat (-1.5 sets) Yuki Bhambri at 3.16 with Pinnaclesports
Having looked at the head to head between these two I see that Yuichi has a 9-0 lead in sets. In their last match 2015 Yuki retired after having lost first set 6-0. Got to try this bet as Yuichi won his last match against Thomas Fabbiano 6-2 6-4 so it seems he's got a good chance to continue on the same path.

Kei Nishikori to beat (-1.5 sets) Jack Sock at 2.26 with Pinnaclesports
Nobody is reliable in 2017 some says but for this tournament Kei has been absolutely destroying everything in his path. And he will continue to do so here I strongly suspect. He beat Jack in Washington 2013 7-5 6-2 and when he's in that form as he was in Washington 2013 he does destroy most of his opponents until he reaches a stage where someone like Roger Federer stands in his way. Jack has been having a fair share of problems along the way to this quarterfinal being knocked out by Jaziri almost in his last match and he's played 3 sets every match. Kei didn't allow Donald Young to keep holding his serve in the second set when he was a break up and he even broke him at 4-4 to turn the set totally around and serve it out. He's a beast right now Kei and should continue to be so I have to back him to win this in straight sets.

Despite she has an excellent year, she is too many times overrated. In the bigger tournaments she has too many bad days. Mladenovic is hot or cold. When she has the form I love to see her play,but far too inconsistent. But 3,49 in this form? That`s  a bet I always take.

Elena Vesnina to beat Venus Williams at 2.37 with Paddypower
Elena has a 3-2 lead in the head to head and has beaten Venus by a 2-1 score twice on hardcourts in the US. Hard to say how it's gonna end this time if Elena wins since it might just be 2-0 for Elena since she beat Angelique Kerber by 2-0. Venus isn't getting any younger but age has nothing to do with it as we've seen so far this season from Venus. However, Elena can start targeting top 10 with the game she's displayed in IW so she'll be very motivated to reach the semis and possibly the final. Venus probably doesn't care as mutch about the ranking as Elena does so that's where I think most of Elenas motivation comes up. Vesnina is also in the semis of the doubles tournament so as good as she is doing I think it's a good idea to back her here.

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 2.25 with Paddypower
Nice form on Karolina this year but sometimes she's got to lose and I think this might be a time to go against her. I can easily see a final between Sveta and Caro Woz. Karolina isn't untouchable as we saw when she faced Monica Puig. Svetas game spells trouble for Karolina on this slow hardcourt. To many balls for Karolinas liking will come back into play. Sveta can take this, no doubt!

Elena Vesnina to beat Venus Williams at 2.37 with Paddypower
Elena has a 3-2 lead in the head to head and has beaten Venus by a 2-1 score twice on hardcourts in the US. Hard to say how it's gonna end this time if Elena wins since it might just be 2-0 for Elena since she beat Angelique Kerber by 2-0. Venus isn't getting any younger but age has nothing to do with it as we've seen so far this season from Venus. However, Elena can start targeting top 10 with the game she's displayed in IW so she'll be very motivated to reach the semis and possibly the final. Venus probably doesn't care as mutch about the ranking as Elena does so that's where I think most of Elenas motivation comes up. Vesnina is also in the semis of the doubles tournament so as good as she is doing I think it's a good idea to back her here.

Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Karolina Pliskova at 2.25 with Paddypower
Nice form on Karolina this year but sometimes she's got to lose and I think this might be a time to go against her. I can easily see a final between Sveta and Caro Woz. Karolina isn't untouchable as we saw when she faced Monica Puig. Svetas game spells trouble for Karolina on this slow hardcourt. To many balls for Karolinas liking will come back into play. Sveta can take this, no doubt!

Caroline Wozniacki to beat (-4 games) Kristina Mladenovic at 1.87 with Pinnaclesports
It's 3-0 head to head to Caroline and she's covered -4 games every time so I doubt Kristina will be able to tag along in this match. Caroline had a good game against Madison Keys and will have a similar game here I would suggest.

Pablo Carreno Busta to beat (-1.5 sets) Dusan Lajovic 2.18 with Pinnaclesports
I don't see how Dusan is gonna be able to stop PCB from winning this in straights. Dusan is not in any world beater form and probably never will be and he only beat Vasek Pospisil because of the slow IW conditions that makes big servers like Vasek unable to capitalize on their big serve. PCB has his game plan and will stick to it as he always does and it mostly works when facing a player like Dusan. Good price for a probable outcome.

I am thinking that WTA is more worth to bet on sometimes but not easier. It's quite even in terms of consistent players. Tennis is still fun to bet on even if the big guns start falling away. I say that Reilly Opelka will become the new Isner but right now he's unstable and in bad form.

Pablo Carreno Busta to beat (-1.5 sets) Dusan Lajovic 2.18 with Pinnaclesports
I don't see how Dusan is gonna be able to stop PCB from winning this in straights. Dusan is not in any world beater form and probably never will be and he only beat Vasek Pospisil because of the slow IW conditions that makes big servers like Vasek unable to capitalize on their big serve. PCB has his game plan and will stick to it as he always does and it mostly works when facing a player like Dusan. Good price for a probable outcome.

I am thinking that WTA is more worth to bet on sometimes but not easier. It's quite even in terms of consistent players. Tennis is still fun to bet on even if the big guns start falling away. I say that Reilly Opelka will become the new Isner but right now he's unstable and in bad form.

Wanted to write a longer post at some point, so here we go, feel free to skip if you care about tips only .
We're somewhere at the end of the first quarter of the season/start of the second one and I think it's been a fairly tough going for most punters really. Certainly not all, as we're seeing on this forum, and I myself am sitting somewhere in a very tiny plus at the moment, which is probably good given the big pre-AO slump, but also bad given that I had a tremendous run a few weeks a go.
Anyway, what I think is that we're now really going through some sort of a transition period, with many of the big names slowly falling away. Djokovic isn't a beast anymore, Nadal is beatable even by the likes of Querrey, Berdych and Isner have dipped big time, etc. Meanwhile, the new big names like Thiem, Zverev, etc. are yet to become very consistent. This is exciting on one hand, but it also muddies the waters big time in terms of betting, so one has to adapt somewhat. I'm certainly going to hunt for more value in the long shots department from now one if the opportunities arise, perhaps more Challengers as well. I wish there was some sort of a silver bullet, but there isn't - more research and more tough work awaits everyone who wants to bet on tennis now I'm afraid.
The one thing, for example, that I have strong feelings about now is that short-odds accumulators aren't viable in the current climate. When you have guys like Cilic and Berdych losing from massive leads nearly every single day, it's not "investing" (as some are calling short-odds betting), but walking through a minefield. In fact, perhaps the opposite could be a much better approach, throwing two underdogs together for nice returns, although that's obviously nothing for the faint of heart.
Am I just rambling or does anyone else have similar thoughts about the current tennis "climate"? Who do you think the next strong-but-not-best layer could be - I'm talking the next Berdychs/Isners/Tsongas? Personally, I'm thinking Pouille, Kyrgios, Nishioka, Goffin, Sock, with Zverev and Thiem perhaps rising above them.

Well Marcel Granollers wasn't very good. He got mostly outplayed by Malek Jaziri and didn't have any chance at all. Bad bet but that's how it is when you take a chance.
Federico Delbonis to beat Juan Martin del Potro at 4.50 with bet365
Odds have dropped down from 5.50 to 4.50 on Delbonis so I'm kind of late for this one. He beat Murray here last season and JMDP hasn't played as mutch as he should need to this season to get into the real winning mood in these big tournaments. I think we'll see another upset from Delbonis here to deny JMDP a meeting with Nole.

Marcel Granollers to beat Malek Jaziri at 2.10 with Bet365
It's 2-0 for Marcel in the head-to-head and it's been a straight set triumph for Marcel last time they met in Memphis 2016. I think Marcel likes this matchup and the Indian wells surface enough to be far more comfortable than Malek and take this. Two things are enough things speaking in favour of Marcel here and I don't understand why he's not the favourite.
Edit: The form of both players are looking different but I dare to say that it won't matter. Marcels history in Indian wells is looking bad to but he's only had difficult draws every time he's played IW. Been in third round only once 2012, having a bye first then beating Tommy Haas in 3 and losing to Rafa in 2. But I'm not worried since this is the first time since beating Tommy Haas for Marcel to have a decent chance of going to the third round again. He's a better player than Malek.

To bad Alexandr Dolgopolov had to retire because he was owning Kohlschreiber and he would have won if not forced to retire.

Marcel Granollers to beat Malek Jaziri at 2.10 with Bet365
It's 2-0 for Marcel in the head-to-head and it's been a straight set triumph for Marcel last time they met in Memphis 2016. I think Marcel likes this matchup and the Indian wells surface enough to be far more comfortable than Malek and take this. Two things are enough things speaking in favour of Marcel here and I don't understand why he's not the favourite.
Edit: The form of both players are looking different but I dare to say that it won't matter. Marcels history in Indian wells is looking bad to but he's only had difficult draws every time he's played IW. Been in third round only once 2012, having a bye first then beating Tommy Haas in 3 and losing to Rafa in 2. But I'm not worried since this is the first time since beating Tommy Haas for Marcel to have a decent chance of going to the third round again. He's a better player than Malek.

Alexander Dolgopolov to beat Philip Kohlschreiber at 2.00 with bet365
So nice price on the dog. Got to take it. He's lost twice to Philip on grass in Germany and won once on the indoor hardcourts of Paris. Now it's hardcourt again, and a hardcourt that suits Alexander way better then Philip and the form of Alexander is looking terrific. No brainer for me, got to take this bet. High stake!