Bamford
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Posts posted by Bamford
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TPC Southwind is a tough track, which plenty of pros say is in the top 5 courses on Tour. The tournament's spot in the schedule, never helps when it comes to field strength and this week is a particularly weak field. The likes of Andres Romero getting in as alternates says everything. However there is still a full PGA Tour title to earn and Fowler, Koepka, Scott, Mickelson and Molinari headline the betting.
The winners list here is varied with rank outsiders and short prices all winning. Elite players though that have won here, have all had a period of time with no victories, so I wouldn't fancy Fowler for the victory. I think players need a great mid-iron game, the ability to birdie par-4s and a strong putting game outside of 15 feet on grainy Champion Bermudagrass greens.
I like Koepka (14/1), Henley (33/1), Horschel (33/1), Stricker (50/1 if he plays) and Brown (150/1). -
Yes plenty of wind around at Colonial again this week, so with faster conditions under foot than we have seen here for a while, I'd expect higher scoring. I spent far too long deciding whether to include Kevin Kisner - and didn't - so expect the man from Georgia to collect his second PGA Tour victory. Expect a tactical battle at the outset, with plenty of players falling by the wayside is nasty conditions. Those who survive within the top 20 come Saturday will be in with a great shot of victory as wind conditions lessen a little.
I have backed Dufner (25/1), Perez (40/1), Horschel (45/1), Kyle Stanley (50/1) and Kirk (66/1). -
Always a tough assignment to find the winner of the Byron Nelson. Maiden Tour triumphs and freak winners abound and with his course form DJ could win this at a canter at around 4/1. Despite being a par 70 TPC Four Seasons is one of those courses which can actually be bullied by longer hitters, so length off the tee can actually be a real advantage. Saying that short hitters can also piece their way around the course nicely, with Brendon Todd winning here 3 years ago. Take last year where Koepka gave the title to Garcia, with a top-5 also containing Kuchar, Knost and Levin, side-by-side with Robert Garrigus. All appear welcome!
Wind is always a factor in Texas and it's worth remembering that we are now dealing with pure Bentgrass greens.
I'm, going for Reed (35/1), Hoffman (40/1), Finau (40/1), Kang (70/1) and Hurley III (150/1). -
Some significant changes to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. TifEagle Bermudagrass greens now with a drivable par-4 at the 12th hole. Scores should be slightly lower as a result, but with fast and windy conditions forecast, it's going to be a tough enough golf course as ever.
Plenty of bigger prices will have a shot as this - we always get some big-priced contenders - but I'm going down the route of a value top-liner in-tandem with 3 players who haven't won in the United States for a period of time. A mix of Major champions and major contenders, who can take on Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia.
So for me Spieth 14/1, Rose 30/1, Koepka 40/1 and Casey 50/1.
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The Wells Fargo Championship moves to Eagle Point Golf Club for a one off visit. A private golf club, 1 mile from the Atlantic coast, it's a Carolina-type golf course with tree-lined fairways. Most holes are straight, and the course features Bentgrass greens. I'm going for McGirt 40/1, Simpson 40/1, Cauley 50/1 and Pettersson 250/1.
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Tough track this week and with a continual Texan wind across at least the final 54 holes, there will be plenty of players who won't fancy the job this week. The Valero Texas Open is one of the weakest events of the season and plenty in this field won't be a factor. The course is a long Par 72, where 3 of the 4 par-5s are difficult to reach in 2 shots. A feature though of the course, are the fast and pretty undulating green complexes. Poor putters need not apply.
So we need a real mix this week. A player who thrives on a technical course, has the power or wedge ability to score well on long par-5s and who can putt well on tough green complexes, which favour those who are comfortable on Bentgrass. Naturally we also want those who are more than comfortable in the wind.
I've gone for Branden Grace 28/1, Ryan Moore 28/1 and Kevin Chappell 33/1.
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We are looking at a calm week at Harbour Town Golf Links for the 2017 RBC Heritage. As ever a reasonably strong field, without the big hitters who dominate the top of the OWGR, gather at Hilton Head, South Carolina, for a tournament where 'chalk' tends to get the job done. Short-hitters don't get many opportunities to win on the PGA Tour, so this is always a golden opportunity for a named player to win a 2-year exemption. Grace (first US win), Furyk, Kuchar, McDowell, Pettersson (coming of a 2nd at Houston) and Snedeker have won this since 2011. That's a high-quality set of players who have won a plaid jacket at the end of tournament week.
i'm anti big, high hitters at Harbour Town, instead I'm looking for players who can plot, and manage their way around this claustrophic set-up. Experience also seems to payout in spades here, with all the above players and Brian Gay before them, being seasoned professionals. Players who like Bermudagrass greens thrive, as do those who can keep bogeys to a minimum, and also hit it close with a wedge in-hand.
Kisner 28/1, Dufner 40/1 and Molinari 50/1 are my selections.
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Augusta is actually a pretty precise exercise. No defending champion, no defending World Number, no course debutants and players with plenty of height with their approach shots and the balls to Go for the Green on par-5s. I'm talking about actual winners here rather than each way places for all those interested in Rahm, Hatton, Hadwin, Pieters, Noren etc. I would have said drawers of the golf ball as well before recent developments and Danny Willett who has a pre-sominate fade won here 12 months ago. When the wind is up, faders can and straight drivers can be competitive.
2017 looks a particularly messy tournament weather-wise. It's set to rain lots in the build-up to the event making the course softer than organisers would want. Think -18 with Jordan Spieth in 2015. But strong wind is set to save them and make scoring difficult over Thursday and Friday.
I like Spieth (8/1), Rose (25/1 8ew 1/4 odds), Leishman (60/1 8ew 1/4 odds) and Berger (80/1 8ew 1/4 odds)
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Each way as standard
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Always difficult to call with many honing their games for Augusta rather than caring about winning here. That's why we are looking at an average winners' price well into 3-digits if you take all renewals since 2010. So I'm spreading the risk a little this week with an elite player at the top of their game, a Texas specialist whose already qualified for The Masters and 3 non-qualifiers at bigger prices.
Jon Rahm 11/1, Charley Hoffman 50/1, Bryson DeChambeau 80/1, Ryan Palmer 150/1 and Bud Cauley 200/1. -
I worked it out that the average winner price for this over the past 7 years is 82/1. Out lying prices being Lamely 110/1 and Michael Bradley 135/1. Since then Cejka won here 2 years ago at 125/1 and we have had a raft of 50/1 winners. The past 4 winners have all posted their maiden victory here as well. Golfers in the main don't travel to smaller events when they don't have to, so the fact that the field includes some pretty big names is a credit and highlights the opportunity these alternate events present. Players such as Finau, Baddeley, Piercy and Ogilvy have used this level of tournament to grab a 2 year exemption and qualify for the Tournament of Champions, PGA Championship and Players Championship.
I like aggressive players this week and up until this point non-members have never won it. It's the only reason I haven't included Thorbjorn Olesen at a value 60/1 - the kind of price he wins at and we know he loves coastal golf.
My players this week are List 28/1, Danny Lee 35/1, J.J. Spaun 40/1, Harold Varner III 66/1 and Jonas Blixt 100/1. -
A booming Par 72 format, which really suits those rare-types, aggressive ball-strikers who can putt really well on Bermudagrass greens. We are looking at pure TifEagle in this particular case at Bay Hill so think Albany, Kapalua, Dubai and PGA National across recent months. Aggressive scoring on par-5s is a pre-requisite for success and a set of long par-3s also places a premium on accuracy from distance. But for me the winner here will need to sit in the top 10 for Strokes Gained Putting as Bay Hill traditionally ranks as a hard course to get the ball close to the hole.
A mix for me of a course warrior - Rickie Fowler at 18/1 + some young talent who should love the Bay Hill test. Hatton 40/1, Pieters 40/1 and Finau 50/1.
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Copperhead is a brute of a course, and it may well play firm and fast after a very dry build-up. Key skills for me look like it will come down to minimising mistakes, scrambling, par-5 scoring (remember Copperhead has 4 par-5s despite being a par 71) and a very hot putter. All kinds can win here, but the winner here has putted at sub 1.7 putts per GIR 6 of the past 7 renewals. That is likely to be quite stretching for many of the pure ball-strikers in the field.
So I'm backing for the following players, all of whom have been putting well of late - Justin Thomas (11/1) on his last stroke play outing pre-Augusta; Ryan Moore (28/1), Jason Dufner (50/1), Wesley Bryan (55/1) and Martin Laird (80/1). -
We move to the Florida Swing this week on the PGA Tour. Different grasses and design of course, with plenty of water in-play. The Champions Course is a Jack Nicklaus design at PGA National. It's a technical, brute of a course, especially when the wind blows. The forecast is for tough conditions Thursday & Sunday, with easier conditions on Friday and Saturday.
The Honda Classic tends to be a grind, where a respect for par is no bad thing - note the lack of top US entries this week! I'm going for players with a positive US Open background who have a motivation to play well this week. Fowler (18), Oosthuizen (33), Kisner (50), Donald (66) and Lingmerth (125). -
The Riviera Country Club is always a highlight on the PGA Tour. Hogan's Alley is a beautiful, old classical course, which many can't get on with. Los Angeles has had plenty of rain in the New Year, so expect cut in the turf, which will only be enhanced by a day of rain on Friday, which will see a gnarly front pass through. So soft course specialists will likely gravitate to the top of the leaderboard. Spieth, Day, Matsuyama, Mickelson and Moore top my rankings when it comes to receptive courses per se.
3 on my shopping list this week. I missed the scarce 10/1 on Dustin Johnson, but like his chances enough at 9/1. As much a course specialist as Bubba Watson, his liking for classical courses is obvious enough. Love his high, fade shot shape as well for the Riviera test and his win at Crooked Stick last year was on a sodden golf course. That takes me onto Sergio Garcia who at 25/1 is unlikely to go back-to-back on his PGA Tour 2017 debut. However he tends to perform well the outing after a win and his liking for Riviera is clear to see. High, long and again like his fade shape. A must each-way punt.
Finally the 66s lasted a few minutes, yesterday but J.B. Holmes is another I like at 50/1. Another power ball-striker, he's been all over the place at Torrey Pines and Scottsdale, but Pebble Beach saw him sneak into the top 13 for ball-striking and 7th for GIR. Classical course positive, Holmes has an excellent record at Riviera and on the West Coast in-general. -
Stodgy viewing until Sunday, but a decent betting event. Plenty of weather intrigue set for the opening 36 holes and the course will be nice and soft. I'm with Justin Rose (16), Patrick Reed (33), Chris Kirk (66), Adam Hadwin (66) and Cameron Smith (125).
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TPC Scottsdale used to be your typical resort style visit to the desert, Easy scoring and a real drag strip. But Tom Weiskopf has certainly toughened the course and -15/279 will get any player right in the hunt. The problem at the Stadium course tends to be hitting the pre-requisite amount of greens and getting the ball close to the hall with approaches. Power undoubtedly helps, to unlock the par-5s with short iron 2nd shot approaches. Greens are classified as TifEagle Bermudagrass, but they are actually overseeded to protect them at this time of year, with a mixture of grasses including Velvet Bentgrass. Ball striking is king here, as are high approach shots, but naturally the winner will always need to make +20 birdies which requires a decent putting performance.
I've gone for Spieth (10/1), Rahm (22), Perez (66), Bradley (66) and O'Hair (125). Best of luck to all. -
Love Walker and Woodland this week. Both have genuine chances, so I am on at 30/1 and 40/1 respectively. The 45s on Woodland went 5 minutes before pressing the button and PP/Betfair had him priced at 66s when they opened Monday morning. That lasted all of 10 minutes!
I also like the stat that 12 of the last 13 winners here had finished in the top 20 in one of their previous 2 appearances. So I'm also including Dustin Johnson win only at 9/1, plus Martin Laird at 66s - both more than capable on Poa Annua and on this stretch of coastline.
To finish, 250/1 for 2-time PGA Tour winner in the past 23 months, James Hahn, seems ludicrous especially as his wins have come at classical icons - Riviera Country Club and Quail Hollow. When the going get's tough Hahn gravitates and he isn't scared of beating the very best in the business. 3rd at PebbleBeach in 2013 also adds credence. -
The CareerBuilder Challenge is up there with the John Deere Classic when it comes to low scoring. Saying that PGA West - which is America's No 1 golf resort - will see some fairly significant breeze and even rain throughout it's 4 days this year. Trouble in paradise! A Pro-Am, it's horrible to watch until the Sunday, when the amateurs get dropped. Last year's change of course-rota was also quite significant - with Pete Dye's Stadium Course not overly suiting the power merchants - although Lovemark & List contended. Soft conditions in 2016 are sure to help the bombers course this year, but I'm keeping it simple, with neat and tidy golfers, who in recent outings have fired plenty of those precious par breakers.
Zach Johnson - 28/1 - a little rain won't put the 2015 Open Champion off. After 19 months with no-title, the sort who wins this.
Kevin Kisner - 40/1 - a short/soft course specialist who loves a Dye design.
Charley Hoffman - 50/1 - a tournament specialist who seems to be on the up-trend.
Chez Reavie - 66/1 (7 places) - unlikely to win, but has the perfect game for here.
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The first full-field event of 2017 on the PGA Tour - the Sony Open in Hawaii often throws-up surprises. Ryan Palmer, Johnson Wagner, Russell Henley and last year's winner Johnson Wagner have all won at triple-digits, but most had an inkling of form going-in apart from Palmer who won at 250/1. It happens as we know!
Waialae Country Club is way removed from Kapalua. An easy 7,044 yard, Par 70, which has had some green renovations during 2016. Green complexes are relatively small, flat and fast, featuring a different variety of Bermudagrass to Kapalua; namely TifDwarf. The name of the game here is quite simple - hit copious amounts of greens and make as many chances as possible with a co-operative putter.
Spieth goes off as the 13/2 favourite - that's a point bigger than last week, despite the field increasing from 32 to 156 players. He has the game to win clearly and is hitting greens for fun at the moment. The worthy favourite, although the price is tight.
For me I'm dipping a little deeper. 12 of 18 winners here since 1999 have played Kapalua the week before, so I like the look of Jimmy Walker at 22/1. Tidy last week, but simply couldn't make enough putts, despite creating tonnes of chances. Loves Waialae so hopefully the putter warms. Russell Knox at 45/1 (I missed the Monday 50/1) also makes sense this week - a short course specialist who seemingly has improved his putting of late.
Non-Kapalua players also make sense. Wilson (2011) and Henley (2013) never played the ToC, but arrived with form - so I like the chances of Horschel and Kirk, both at 50/1. Billy made the Playoff at SeaIsland in November and finished 3rd at the Franklin Templeton Shootout in December partnering Charley Hoffman. He's on the up-trend for a win (his schedule looks light with no WGCs or Majors) as does Chris Kirk who again will want a fast start to 2017 after slipping out of the OWGR Top 50.
Best of luck.
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Happy New Year to all.
The SBS Tournament of Champions as always kicks-off the new year action. The annual trip to Maui in the Pacific Ocean for winners from the previous year, naturally derides a strong field. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the easiest on the Tour, but it's location overhanging the Pacific make it tricky for newcomers. Putting is a challenge on TifEagle Bermudagrass green surfaces which throw-up undulations and plenty of visual challenges. Blind tee shots don't fit all tastes and the wind here is always a feature. First time players here can contend, but rarely triumph.
Low scoring is the key, so excellent approach play linked to a razor-sharp short game. No wonder Spieth, Reed and Zach Johnson have triumphed here the last 3 renewals. Avoid those who struggle on Bermudagrass putting-wise.
I've plumped for Matsuyama at 5/1 - if he makes the transition to 2017 as well as he did in 2015 he will undoubtedly be a feature.
Brandt Snedeker at 20/1 has been on Maui since Boxing Day and we all know he loves playing the west coast swing. 3rd here in 2013 and 2016. Loves coastal golf and finished 2016 well enough.
Justin Thomas at 22/1 completes the team. Got to know the course 12 months ago and is definitely Bermuda positive putting-wise. Loves resort scoring as his 2 wins in Malaysia indicate perfectly.
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The last of a long season. Seaside golf on the eastern seaboard of Georgia. Gnarly Bermudagrass greens which are difficult to make putts on from outside 10 feet. The course is scorable, but wind on Saturday/Sunday will make this interesting. Keeping it simple with Kirk (18), Chappell (28) and Castro (66).
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An extended $7m purse has led to a decent enough field at El Camaleon this renewal. 4 of the top 50 in the World are in attendance with Knox and Grillo heading the market. Both undoubtedly have there merits and the Scotsman should have won here 12 months ago. The course is a short Par 71 which is coastal - although only 2 par-3s front-up to the actual coastline. It's a Norman design, which as you'd expect, requires excellent ball-striking. The course traditionally plays soft, and this year sees graduated rough for the first time. punishment for those who are wild off the tee is penal, but for those who are straight or conservative, the course can be picked apart. Very little wind this week could see record levels of scoring.
I've gone for Bradley (28), Horschel (40), McDowell (45), Leishman (50) and the seaside loving Argentine Gomez (125). Best of Luck.
2017 U.S. Open
in Golf Betting Tips
Posted
Long, tough (goes without saying) and with an undoubtedly links feel. Erin Hills will be a stern-test this week. Thunderstorms may soften the course a little more than the USGA would like, but with constant win in-play and a forecast which will see temperatures up into the 28-30 degree Celsius bracket. this is unlikely to become Congressional 2011. However with the purest of A4 Bentgrass putting surfaces and with Mike Davis saying that more putts will be made here than we have seen for a long while at the US Open, we could potentially see a number of players strategising their way around to a mid single-digit under par closing total. As with any US Open I have gone for players who are clearly confident with their driver and approach play, and who have ranked well in the All-Round category in their last appearance. So muy selections are:
Jason Day 14/1, Justin Thomas 33/1, Branden Grace 50/1, Kevin Kisner 55/1, Kevin Chappell 66/1 and Shane Lowry 70/1