Bamford
-
Posts
233 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Bamford
-
-
Our yearly visit to Las Vegas. A players paradise and this year's field gathering at TPC Summerlin looks excellent. Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson and Gary Woodland all play on this free scoring par-71. A typical desert track, where high Greens in Regulation is required to get the job done, Summerlin is one of those rarities on the PGA Tour where relatively tight fairways are important to find. To shoot -20 or lower around here, it helps to be on the short grass. Bentgrass greens which are sizable are inviting, but those missing the greens have a job on their hands to save par.
I'm with Beau Hossler (40/1), Scott Piercy (66/1), Andrew Putnam (66/1), J.J. Spaun (125/1) and Stephan Jaeger (200/1).
-
One of these alternate events for PGA Tour journeymen, web.com graduates and veterans who can get into these based upon Past Champions status. Often a bit of a dartboard approach, but with winners averaging 225/1 over the past 4 renewals of this title, I'm not really going anywhere near the head of the market. Played at a stock par-72 in Jackson, Mississippi, weather will play it's part this week with rain, wind and northern European-type conditions for the most part. A streaky putter who goes well on Bermudagrass seems a pre-requisite - players with a web.com Tour Playoff campaign under them have a distinct advantage - as many of the PGA Tour journeymen have hardly played since start of August.
Cameron Davis 45/1, Curtis Luck 80/1, Richy Werenski 80/1, Ben Silverman 100/1, Wyndham Clark 150/1.
-
The PGA Tour visits South Korea for the second time with the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges GC on Jeju Island. Justin Thomas won here from Marc Leishman last year, where the wind caused all kinds of torments. The wind this year, looks a little easier, so we could well see lower scoring on a course which offers little in terms of defence, if tranquil. Ultimately putting made the difference 12 months ago - usually the case in windy conditions, but power ball-strikers may well have more of a say this time around. I'm going for Hideki Matsuyama (14/1), Gary Woodland (35/1), Brandt Snedeker (50/1), Kyle Stanley (50/1) and JB Holmes (66/1).
-
The PGA Tour visits Malaysia for the CIMB Classic at TPC Kuala Lumpur. A short par-72 which yields birdies and eagles makes for a resort scoring test in relentless humidity and heat. The West Course this year will feature new TifEagle Bermudagrass greens for the first time - but all-in-all, expect low scoring again this week. All sorts of players can compete this week, but ultimately a top-level ball striker or an aggressive sort who can putt the lights out tends to get the job done. All winners of this since 2010 have also ranked between 22 and 64 in the OWGR.
I have gone for Xander Schauffele (20/1), Gary Woodland (22/1) and Cameron Smith (40/1).
-
The start of the new 2018/19 PGA Tour season sees the now well-established trip to Silverado Country Club in Napa, California. A mix of PGA Tour mid-range pros, low-end journeymen and a fresh group of web.com Tour grads - some with plenty of PGA Tour experience and others who are total rookies. A number of the PGA Tour events left in 2018 will look like this from a field perspective, including the Shriners, Sandersons Farms and the OHL Classic in Mexico. Silverado is a pretty stock par 72, which is tree-lined and features tight fairways and undulating greens. In standard weather it's no real challenge, but one of the nuances we need to get a grip of from a tipping perspective are the greens which feature Bentgrass Poa Annua. As we know Poa Annua doesn't suit plenty of players. The course is a ball-strikers paradise, with a set of par-5s which are all reachable, for those who can keep their drives in-play.
From a field perspective, Patrick Cantlay has the natural talent to stand-out at the top of the market. He plays this tournament for the first time at Siverado, and the fact he has chosen a "home-state" tournament, says to me, he fancies the job at hand. I'll take the 14/1 on the best ball-striker in the field.
I'm also covering previous Silverado champions in the form of Emiliano Grillo (33/1) and Sang-moon Bae (50/1), the latter, who arrives fresh from a win at the Boise Open in the web.com Tour Playoffs. A triple-digits I'm also in on Bronson Burgoon at 100/1, who played well here 12 months ago and seems to be acclimatising well to the PGA Tour after 6th The National, 2nd at the John Deere Classic and 11th in the stacked Northern Trust.
-
A 30-man field for the PGA Tour closing Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Plenty on the line this week around the classical, Par 70 which features MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens. It's a stretching course at circa 7,400 yards with a couple of par-5s and players have to play approaches with longer irons rather than a plethora of wedges. No precipitation in this part of Georgia for well over a week, so expect roll on the fairways and firmer greens than we have been accustomed to recently. The course rewards a little accuracy off the tee, but of late, power is becoming more important. In-reality this is a ball-striking exercise, where patience and a game-plan is critical. Hot-heads will struggle and undoubtedly winners here have U.S. Open associations. Of course the FedEx Cup rankings complicate matters further, and I have been selective going for 3 players across the 30-man field.
I'm going for Bryson DeChambeau (20/1), Webb Simpson (28/1) and Bubba Watson (50/1).
-
A familiar tournament on a course we all know. That's till 2019 when this tournament disappears on a Playoffs rota-basis but we digress. TPC Boston is one of those courses where power and top-level ball-striking certainly helps. This course can be bullied, but the make-up of the scoring is interesting. Take Justin Thomas last year where his -17 total was made up at -14 on par-4s and -4 across the 12 looks at the par-5s. Or 2016 when Rory McIlroy shot Level on the par-4s and -12 on the par-5s! In-essence the 3 par-5s as a group are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour each-year, whereas the par-4s open up opportunities. Powerful sorts then are at an advantage as they have the armoury to unlock the par-5s with aggressive - Going for the Green operators tending to eventually triumph here. Greens are Bentgrass, with the inland-links course also likely to benefit from some cut in the fairways and relatively light winds for a course where the wind can seriously affect scoring.
I'm on Koepka 14/1, Woods 22/1, Rahm 25/1 and Horschel 45/1.
-
The PGA Tour regular season ends at the Wyndham Championship. Top 125 in the FedEx Cup is all-important for those wanting to keep their playing privileges for next year and of course to progress into next week's Playoffs. Sedgefield Country Club is a stock, Carolina type par 70, which is very scorable. Tree-lined and featuring Champion Bermuda grass, it offers-up 2 reachable par-5s and a number of very short par-4s. Hit fairways - it becomes a wedge-fest. Webb Simpson is rightly the tournament favourite, and headlines a field which is not the strongest, with the big guns taking a week off between a pressure-packed period of golf and the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Driving Acc, Greens in Regulation and Proximity to Hole tend to be key here - avoid Bogeys and convert 1 in 3 holes is the target, which isn't all together that easy!
I'm with Snedeker 28/1, Si Woo 50/1, Chris Kirk 80/1, Nick Watney 100/1 and Whee Kim 125/1.
-
This will be the last time the RBC Canadian Open visits Glen Abbey, as the course becomes a rather plush private condo-estate. It's a classical, tree-lined course outside of Toronto, which plays as tough as the turf conditions. Rain pre and during tournament week, again should see this being receptive and that means birdies around here. -21 and -17 has won this in receptive years and where the likes of Snedeker, Poulter and Hearn have won and contended here - power off the tee is a large advantage - look at the leaderboard last year!
I'm on Bubba Watson (25/1), Charley Hoffman (33/1), Sergio Garcia (40/1) and the bomb Harold Varner III (125/1).
-
Carnoustie is going to be an absolutely classic Open Championship - dry, firm and fast. Look for longer sorts, with immediate form and a top-level scrambling game. Fade shot-shape undoubtedly positive around here.
Dustin Johnson 12/1
Sergio Garcia 33/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Matthew Southgate 150/1
Stewart Cink 250/1
-
The John Deere Classic is one of the leading birdie-fests on the PGA Tour. A weak field the week before the Open Championship is always assured, and sure enough weird and whacky names contend year-in, year-out at this tournament. However in DeChambeau, Moore, Spieth (x2), Harman, Zach Johnson, Stricker (x3) and Perry, quality has won this tournament going all the way back to 2008. It seems one of the shorter prices, who has recent Top 10 finishes will always eventually win-out here at a tournament where -19 will be the minimum required. So I'm keeping it simple with 4 players who arrive in Silvis, Illinois in half decent nick. The can hit the ball close with wedge in-hand, are useful on par-3s and par-4s and sit within the top 55 for Birdie Average - that's good for this depth of field. All are streaky scorers, who have a history in -up-state North America locations. They also have course experience, which rules out Molinari and Niemann for me of the very short prices.
Kyle Stanley (28/1), Chesson Hadley (33/1), Chris Kirk (50/1) and Chez Reavie (80/1)
-
A par-70 course in White Sulphur Springs, Old White TPC has now hosted a PGA Tour tournament since 2010. As a tournament, it's never really 'caught fire' and despite attracting some names every year, they rarely feature. That could be due to the party hosted by Nick Faldo in his mansion here, or it could be due to a lack of motivation at a tournament, which many players describe in interview as having a small-scale feel to it. Maybe that's why web.com graduates tend to fly here, on a course which is trickier than people give it credit for. Bentgrass green complexes are tricky and eventually a good putter wins this over a pure ball-striker. Don't get me wrong high-class ball-strikers or high-class short game players can all win this, but if you expect Keegan Bradley to win this week - you might be disappointed. Essentially you still have to get the ball in the hole, and those with a hotter putter eventually win.
I'm on Joaquin Niemann (28/1), Danny Lee (60/1), Anirban Lahiri (70/1), Stephan Jaeger (200/1) and Denny McCarthy (250/1).
-
A very weak tournament when compared to the Open de France at Le Golf National this week. Where Paris has the likes of Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren topping a high-class field, Washington DC and the Quicken Loans National has Rickie Fowler, tournament-host Tiger Woods and Marc Leishman backed up by the likes of Francesco Molinari, Kyle Stanley and J.B. Holmes in the betting. It's not great! TPC Potomac is a tough course, where a single-digit winning score is likely to win. We may see two tournaments this week in one as a soft course yields birdies across Thursday/Friday before roasting temperatures turn the course into something a lot more fiery. TPC Potomac has the definite look of Wentworth about it, so you can see Francesco Molinari flourishing, but I can't take him at the price available. With Kyle Stanley a winner last year, look for a ball-striker who can keep bogeys off the card with pateince and a decent-level scrambling game.
I'm in on Byeong-Hun An (40/1), Joaquin Niemann (50/1), Si Woo Kim (50/1), Andrew Putnam (66/1) and James Hahn (125/1).
-
The Travelers Championship is always a well attended and well respected event on the PGA Tour. Again the field is strong, with plenty of the top names in their last United States outing before the Open Championship. TPC River Highlands is in Hartford, Connecticut, and it's a short Par 70 featuring only 2 par-5s. Greens are reasonably sized and again feature Bentgrass Poa Annua greens. The course is parkland, featuring tree-lined holes and little water. All sorts can win here with a winning score of between -12 to -15 the norm.
I'm with Bubba Watson (33/1), Patrick Cantlay (40/1), Brian Harman (50/1), Kyle Stanley (60/1), Emiliano Grillo (66/1) and Patrick Rodgers (80/1).
-
Shinnecock Hills hosts the 118th United States Open Championship. A 7,440 yard par 70, the USGA will ensure that the course will be no pushover. An inland links-type test, the course features only 2 par-5s, 7 par-4s at +450 yards and naturally plenty of thigh high fescue grass. In-reality though this Coore & Crenshaw renovation is wide off the tee and as with all US Opens of late those with a huge game off the tee are most likely to succeed. Make no bones though, this is going to play firm and fast, so those with a nuance for links-type golf on fescue fairways are going to love the test this week.
I'm going for Rickie Fowler (20/1), Jon Rahm (20/1), Jimmy Walker (100/1), Brandt Snedeker (110/1), Keegan Bradley (150/1) and Gary Woodland (150/1) - enjoy the 2nd Major of 2018
-
The St Jude Classic is the traditional curtain-raiser for the U.S. Open, which from 2019 will receive WGC-status. The week before a Major is never the best spot to be for a 'regular' tournament on the PGA Tour and as ever the field is weak. Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson grace the top of the betting, but lower down we are seeing the tradional swathe of WDs from players who got through USO Sectional Qualifying yesterday, or quite simply need a rest (Beau Hossler). TPC Southwind is a tough par 70 with lots of water in-play. 8 par-4s play at +450 yards and as a set they are difficult. The 2 par-5s present eagle opportunities and the 8 looks at them need to be maximised. Fairways are zoysiagrass, with Champion Bermudagrass greens. Temperatures get up to 35 degrees Celsius so the tournament tends to be slog and tightly contested. Little wind this week and invitating playing conditions across Thurs/Fri, so scoring likely to be around the -12/-14 winning mark. Elite players with a win agenda can take this, as can Tour maidens. sometimes at rather tasty prices.
I'm going with Luke List (50/1), Kiradech Aphibarnrat (50/1), Matt Jones (150/1), Wesley Bryan (200/1) and Ryan Blaum (300/1).
-
The strongest domestic tournament on the PGA Tour this week with the Memorial at Muirfield Village. Jack Nicklaus' tournament always attracts the very best and this 120-man field is always the strongest non FedEx Cup event of the year. 11 of the world's top 16 are present this week with only Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood and Sergio Garcia absent. The course is a classical, tree-lined affair which is located in Ohio. There are definite links with Ohio's other world-class course Firestone South and you can find other correlating form links with other Nicklaus course designs played at Career BuilderChallenge, Honda Classic and RBC Canadian Open's played at Glen Abbey. The Champions List is varied. 2010 - 2013 saw Kuchar 22/1; Woods 16/1; Stricker 28/1; and Rose 80/1 win here with Justin capturing his first PGA Tour title. But since then Matsuyama 66/1, Lingmerth 500/1, McGirt 200/1 and Dufner 66/1 have triumphed here. The wins for the first 3 of those were maiden victories with Dufner delivering his 5 PGA Tour victory.
With the top 6 in the betting priced between 12/1 to 16/1 and with Tiger Woods now at sub-20/1 this is a loaded contest. But as we can see above, longer prices do tend to be victorious. I'm going with Leishman 33/1, Grillo 50/1, DeChambeau 50/1, Moore 80/1 and Hoffman 150/1. I'm also backing Charley in the FRL market at 125/1.
-
We sat in the Dallas / Forth Worth area this week for the final leg of the Texas Swing. The Forth Worth invitational is always a strong event on the PGA Tour, with Colonial Country Club, rightly attracting a strong field. With the PGA Tour legislating to get players to visit new events, the like of Justin Rose, Brooks Kopeka and Rickie Fowler add flavour to the tournament this week, and mix in-well with the likes of Kisner, Zach Johnson, Dufner, Kuchar, Simpson, Scott and Walker. Throw-in the young talents of Cantlay, DeChambeau, Grillo, Smith, Hadley and last week's winner Aaron Wise and this tournament is pretty stacked. I'm looking for players with a classical course record and who like Bentgrass greens. A previous top 10/12 finish at Colonial seems a must for the winner - although World Number 1 (at the time) Adam Scott won here in 2014 with nothing better than a 64th here. And I have also gone for players who have shown flashes of form since Augusta.
I'm tipping up Jon Rahm (14/1), Jason Dufner (33/1), Zach Johnson (50/1) and Danny Lee (90/1).
-
A new course to get our heads around this week. Trinity Forest GC in south-east Dallas. Not your stock PGA Tour course, it's set on an old landfill site. It's effectively a faux-links, so looks extremely links-like, but think Chambers Bay or Erin Hills. Wide fairways, no rough, but plenty of hazards including native areas, severe green run-offs, severely contoured greens with a majority that repel approaches. It looks a little like classic courses we see in the Melbourne sand-belt area and Open Champion + Trinity-member Jordan Spieth describes it as similar in the skill-sets needed to when he won at Birkdale last July. Strategic course management, accurate approaches and a super short game, especially with scrambling from distance will be required.
It maybe a U.S. faux links-test, but plenty in the field won't like this whatsoever. Wind could be a factor on Fri/Sat but in-general I think the course will be scorable.
I'm on Adam Scott (25/1), Branden Grace (25/1), Beau Hossler (40/1), Brandt Snedeker (60/1) and Peter Uihlein (66/1).
-
We visit the Pete Dye designed Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship. The PGA Tour's biggest tournament of the year, The Players victor earns some huge rewards. The winner receives a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, a three-year invitation to the Masters, U.S. Open, The Open Championship and the PGA Championship. If European or American, they will also pretty much guarantee selection in their respective Ryder Cup teams. With such huge rewards on the table, you would expect the tournament champions list to be dominated by the very biggest names in the game and you would be partly correct. World Number 1s Tiger Woods and Jason Day have both one this in-recent times, but the likes of Si Woo Kim, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer, Matt Kuchar and K.J. Choi, all came into the tournament at some serious odds. Top players, who needed to win a big tournament at the time they did. With DJ, Thomas, Spieth, Rahm and Rose all having cracks at leaving Ponte Vedra Beach with the World Number 1 mantle, it's almost as if we need to look deeper in this stacked field for the winner.
So I'm looking for strategists this week, who have shown enough underlying form in the last 4/5 weeks to give this a real crack, The course will play firm and fast and the 2017-new greens are likely to be as non-compliant this time around in terms of accepting approach shots. Wind though, which pretty-much is always a feature of The Players won't be in 2018. Solid (not spectacular) tee-to-green is needed this week, as is the ability to actually play for the middle of greens on a number of key holes. Scrambling (or strokes gained around the green) is the critical stat this week, over and above everything including putting.
So I'm going for Henrik Stenson 33/1, Bryson DeChambeau 55/1, Kevin Kisner 66/1, Zach Johnson 80/1 and Adam Hadwin 100/1
-
This tournament returns to Quail Hollow where they hosted the PGA Championship last year. Quail Hollow is a classical course, which is extremely long to boot. Now a Par 71 measuring 7,500 yards, this week is unlikely to be a birdie-fest, rather a proper tournament where a mix of both birdies and bogeys will hit every player. I don't expect the course to play quite as difficult as it did for the PGA Championship, but with fast greens and little wind we should still see a typical mid-score winning score. Power and a high ball-flight is definitely an advantage here, but course management and a razor-sharp short game will be essential, when players inevitably miss greens. It's also a tournament where quality players in the past have made big-breakthroughs with potentially a number of the elite names casting an eye to The Players next week rather than winning this.
I'm going with Tommy Fleetwood (28/1), Webb Simpson (40/1), Tony Finau (45/1) and Bennie An (70/1).
-
Valero Texas Open is this week's action on the PGA Tour. Played at the tough TPC San Antonio track, it's never gong to be a highlight of any Tour season, but from a betting event it's fairly interesting. Yes the likes of Steve Bowditch have won this at 350/1, but across the past 3 years Jimmy Walker, Charley Hoffman and Kevin Chappell have all won at 25/1, 30/1 and 33/1 respectively. A track where power in my view is 100% critical, it sets up well for ball-strikers who can access some of the longer par-5 green complexes in 2 mighty blows and also attack the short par-4s at the 5th (342 yards) and the 17th (347 yards). Wind is always a factor in Texas and it looks set to blow again here this week on an exposed course, which has similarities in set-up with the likes of Augusta and Firestone, where power pays.
After a 40/1 Webb Simpson each-way return last week I'm in on Billy Horschel and Xander Schauffele at 33/1 + Chesson Hadley at 40/1 this week.
-
Played at Harbour Town Golf Links the test this week is the complete opposite of Augusta. Short, claustrophobic, with tiny greens featuring TifEagle Bermudagrass. Set by the coast in South Carolina, the RBC Heritage is an invitational-status PGA Tour tournament with a 3 year (rather than 2) exemption up for grabs. Therefore the field is half-decent considering it's a week after The Masters and Team RBC players are all in-attendance. You don't have to be too straight off the tee, but playing for position and knowing where to miss is critical. With 70% GIR likely to top the Greens in Regulation numbers, look for those who have a great scrambling / Strokes Gained Around the Green game, as upwards of 20 missed greens are inevitable. I'm going with:
Brian Harman 33/1, Webb Simpson 40/1, Adam Hadwin 40/1 and Ryan Moore 60/1
-
The Masters curtain-raiser, the Houston Open takes place this week. The starter-course before we dine at Augusta National, this tournament at the GC of Houston is played on a long par 72 which features hybrid Bermudagrass with Bentgrass greens. It's a track where straight, long driving is a huge advantage and with a driveable par-4 and a tough set of par-5s which always ranks as some of the toughest on the PGA Tour, including Major courses; having an aggressive streak with 2nd shots is 100% critical here. We also need to take note of the market-leaders as no elite player - apart from J.B. Holmes (who had just finished 2nd at the WGC-Cadillac) - has one this since 2011. I can see Fowler and Spieth desperately trying to gain form here and Stenson ploughing on nicely on the basis that he isn't a factor at Augusta. I'd be majorly surprised if Rose or Mickelson threaten on Sunday.
So I'm looking for aggressive sorts who will be solely focused on delivering a strong result at a tournament where the actual field strength is pretty low. So I'm with Daniel Berger (28/1), Luke List (33/1), Russell Henley (33/1) and Luke List (66/1).
Mayakoba Golf Classic
in Golf Betting Tips
Posted
A shoot-out in Cancun, down Mexico way to look forward to this week. El Camaleon golf course is by the coast, although much of it is inland. Key characteristics are that is short, attackable and features Paspalam greens. Naturally this part of the world is warm and tropical, so conditions are standard soft to receptive. The courses main defence is wind, which looks light this week, so a sun -20 winning score is likely to be the magic number again. It is the PGA Tour after all! In-recent winners Patton Kizzire, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell and Charley Hoffman, we have streaky sorts, who can be neat and tidy, to establish numerous scoring opportunities. Keeping bogeys off the card is also vital as Eagle-Birdie-Double Bogey won't win this tournament.
I'm going for Aaron Wise (28/1), Scott Piercy (45/1), Sam Ryder (50/1), Sung-jae Im (60/1) and Robert Streb (125/1).