Bamford
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Posts posted by Bamford
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A true birdie-fest in Las Vegas this week at TPC Summerlin. Expect -20/264 or a score of close proximity to be required for the win this week. I like driving accuracy a little over power this week and naturally a red-hot putter will be required. We see golf at altitude this week and pure Bentgrass greens. Weather will play no part this week, so expect perfect scoring conditions around a course where it's difficult to get the ball close, especially from off the fairway. Winners are varied with prices wide-open so I'm covering course specialists Laird (40) and Martin (75). Murray (50) ticks plenty of boxes from a web.com graduate perspective as does Mackenzie Hughes (150). Finally resort scoring specialist Johnson Wagner (80) is playing some lovely stuff right now as is Ryo Ishikawa (80) who needs a result to fulfil his Major Medical Extension and could well take some motivation from Matsuyama's performance in China.
- ledge81 and Sir Puntalot
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Sheshan International looks set to be wet and windswept this week for the WGC-HSBC Champions. A quality field with McIlroy and Dustin Johnson heading the betting market as you would expect a World Golf Championship event, but no Day, Spieth or Mickelson. A pretty stock par 72 which can suit bombers or plotters. We are going for Paul Casey (25), Martin Kaymer (40), Alex Noren (55), Kevin Kisner (90) and Fitzpatrick (125).
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The CIMB Classic is a $7 million no cut tournament which takes place at the West Course, Kuala Lumpur G&CC. This is the 4th time that the tournament is an official PGA Tour event, with a field that contains Scott, Matsuyama, Garcia and form guy + 2-time course winner Ryan Moore. Tends to be a low-scoring affair and it all comes down to wedge play, putting and the ability to minimise bogeys on a relatively easy golf course. I'm going for Na (22), Piercy (40), An (40), Hahn (125) and Cabrera-Bello FRL (40).
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Have to say I feel a little cheated, with no Tiger Woods and I'm sure both Lefty and the Golf Channel do to. The one upside is that we won't have to endure every shot from TW across the coverage. The Safeway Open is the old Frys.com tournament, which has been a mainstay of the autumn PGA Tour schedule for a long period of time now. This will be the 3rd renewal at Silverado, where course owner, Johnny Miller, hopes to get a Major before too long. So as you would expect, it's classical and provides some challenge, but naturally plotters or those blessed with power can take it apart. The course has 5 risk and reward holes, and the tournament tends to be won across those, so strong G4G stats are useful. I'm going for the following 5 - Jon Rahm (33), Kokrak (60), Cauley (66), Kirk (80) and Hahn (100). Best of Luck.
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Not everybody's cup of tea, but I like a bet in the player markets. Top combined points scorer market is the most popular, with Poulter, 4-way tie, Poulter and Rose winning over the past 4 renewals. I think Team USA win by a squeak, but I'm happy to back Justin Rose at 14/1. Loves this format and is nicely rested for this. From a USA perspective Dusstin Johnson is 7/1 favourite, but I'm backing Patrick Reed again at 14/1. Simply thrives in this arena. Willett (25s), Walker (33s) also appeal. Top European Rookie is another market that interests me and I've snapped up Danny Willett at 100/30. Pieters and Fitzpatrick are his challengers IMO.
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The top 30 players on the PGA Tour make the traditional pilgrimage to East Lake Golf Club for the Tour Championship. Plenty of prestige on the line, and plenty of elite players trying to find form prior to next week's Ryder Cup. East Lake has been lengthened (7385 yard par-70) and toughened so don't expect a Crooked Stick drag-strip. We return to Bermudagrass greens as well, so plenty of changes. East Lake always features fast greens and will present a challenge for those who stray from the short-stuff. For me I'm looking at Jordan Spieth (9s missed the 10s), with a support team of Russell Knox (50) and Daniel Berger (50).
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Crooked Stick is a very long par 72 featuring Bent Poa greens. McIlroy won here in 2012 from Lee Westwood, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott. High-class.
Rory Rory Rory (11/2) - supported by Rickie Fowler (40/1) who would love to get some momentum going prior to the Ryder Cup. Another I have added is Branden Grace. After his win at HarbourTown and his performances at Oakmont and Baltusrol, you would never guess he might not make the Tour Championship - but he needs a big week to make the FEC top 30.
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Tough golf course, Bethpage State Park, Black Course. Home of the 2002 and 2009 U.S. Opens. The course won't play USGA tough this week, but with fast conditions assured, anything approaching -15 seems a very tough ask. Nick Watney won here at -10/274 in 2012 from Snedeker, Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia.
I always look for those a little deeper in the FEC standings at the Barclays - Jason Day was Number 2 LY, coming off a win at the PGA Championship 2 weeks earlier. He's the only player from the top-8 to win the opening PlayOff event. Its also worth mentioning that the PGA was 4 weeks ago - so will the favourites suffer a little with inactivity?
I'm going for Rose (25), Matsuyama (30), Watson (45), Grace (50) and Walker (80). Horschel must be worth an investment too.
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The Wyndham Championship marks the end of the regular PGA Tour season. Plenty up for grabs including Ryder Cup spots and FedEx Cup top 125 positions - anybody outside of these come Sunday night if not already exempt, will not be able to choose their schedule next season.
The easiest par 70 on the Tour, we see a return to Bermudagrass greens for briefest of periods at Sedgefield CC. Small detail, but often brings different players into the mix.
I've gone for Haas (28), Henley (45), English (66), Garrigus (80) and Cauley (100).
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If we are looking at longer prices Steve Stricker, Keegan Bradley and Scott Piercy have to be covered. Stricker has been backed into 100/1, with the other 2 available at 125s. Proven Major Championship players. Kevin Chappell (110/1) and Kevin Streelman (250/1) worth covering as well plus naturally BEEF!
At shorter prices Henrik Stenson could go either way, but I'm on-board at 16s. Fortunate to get Garcia at 30s (he was 33s in limited spots Monday morning), Snedeker at 66/1 and Dufner 100/1.
Best of luck to all.
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I'm digging deep into the FedEx Cup standings this week, looking for players who really need to take advantage of this alternate event. Plenty fit the brief, long off the tee, high GIR% and experience in the desert, but previous editions of this feature winners who were in triple-digits when it came to the FEC. Makes a level of sense, when the amount of tournaments left in the regular Tour season are ticking-down, especially when the Greenbrier has now been cancelled, and most journeymen will miss the Open Championship and PGA Championship.
So I'm going with Martin Laird (35), Seung-yul Noh (45), Scott Stallings (80), Geoff Ogilvy (125), Martin Piller (125), Kyle Stanley (125) and Brett Stegmaier (200).
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Beautiful golf course, which will play long after a good dousing yesterday (43mm) and with more rain set for Thursday. It's likely to interrupt play as a weather front passes over Congressional, so FRL punters pay close attention. From Friday there the course will bake, but will be receptive through till end of play Saturday at least.
A soft course shouts Charley Hoffman to me (33/1). I'm also determined to eventually snare Marc Leishman (30). Roberto Castro came to the fore on the long-classical format at Quail Hollow recently (50/1) and Kevin Streelman (66/1) is playing some sweet stuff - let's hope the putter stays warm this week.
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Oakmont is a 'bear' of a golf course according to Brandt Snedeker. I take it from that he means it has real-teeth. It's a pure poa annua greened course which are rarities (most have a level of bentgrass in them) and plenty of golfers simply hate these putting surfaces. There will be rain on Thursday which will soften this course, but this won't be a 2011 Rory birdie-fest.
I thought closely about Kuchar, Garcia and young Matthew Fitzpatrick. Chris Wood might be an option as might Martin Kaymer. However players who can hit plenty of greens, save par from the fairway rough and minimise 3-putts will get the job done.
So Day (7), Fowler (33), Snedeker (70) and Leishman (90).
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Brooks Koepka (14), Kyle Reifers (55), Freddie Jacobson (125), Tim Wilkinson (125), David Toms (125) Troy Merritt (150). Always a tricky conundrum at TPC Southwind. Those with a firing flat-stick, who like it sticky for me.
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Always a difficult tournament to call this. Dustin Johnson at 9/1 is a popular pick, but goes against the grain when we look at previous winners since 2009. Sabbatini (45), Day (100), Bradley (200) Dufner (22), Bae (150), Todd (100) and Bowditch (500) - now there is a hardy bunch.
I can see the logic with DJ who can destroy this +7,100 par 70 with brute power in soft conditions and he's putting well at the moment. Keegan Bradley (80) came very close for me put eventually I plumped for Leishman (33) Palmer (45), Blixt (80) and 3 triple digits in the form of Barnes (300), Piller (200) and Curran (150). Chesson Hadley is a good shout IMO as well.
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Always a cracking tournament this, which in recent times has suited players of real quality, who haven't won on either main Tour for a period of time. Rickie Fowler is the perfect example, as prior to his win here 12 months ago, he hadn't won since 2012 and many of you may recall media coverage of the fact that he and Poulter were the most overrated players prior to Rickie's win here!
Course experience is a key for me if you are searching for the ultimate winner - course debutants Martin/Kisner/Spieth/Lingmerth have all contended in-recent years but not won - so if you are looking for a debutant bet Cabrera-Bello, An, Grillo and Fitzpatrick all hold water.
I'm going for the following - Garcia 28s, Stenson 33s, Horschel 66s, Kirk 90s and Lingmerth 125s.
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A modest par 72 featuring Miniverde Bermudagrass greens. Short or long players can be competitive here, where the real key is to keep bogeys off the card, whilst taking your opportunities on the short par 4s and the par 5s. It's a course where consistency rather than brute force ultimately prevails.With wind in-play and conditions faster than last year expect -16/272 to -18/270 to be the winning totals. Players sub -15/273 will be right in the mix.
New winners are a feature here, but elite players who are hungry for a win like Justin Rose last year have also taken the title.
I'm going for a mix of winners and non-winners, and players who I think will hopefully be able to hit the +72% of greens required to get into the mix. So Horschel (22s), Berger (28s), Kirk (40s) and Castro (175s).
Best of luck.
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A modest par 72 featuring Miniverde Bermudagrass greens. Short or long players can be competitive here, where the real key is to keep bogeys off the card, whilst taking your opportunities on the short par 4s and the par 5s. It's a course where consistency rather than brute force ultimately prevails.With wind in-play and conditions faster than last year expect -16/272 to -18/270 to be the winning totals. Players sub -15/273 will be right in the mix.
New winners are a feature here, but elite players who are hungry for a win like Justin Rose last year have also taken the title.
I'm going for a mix of winners and non-winners, and players who I think will hopefully be able to hit the +72% of greens required to get into the mix. So Horschel (22s), Berger (28s), Kirk (40s) and Castro (175s).
Best of luck.
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Big bombers required on a long course. Lefty is very tempting, but I've gone for Holmes (25), Koepka (25), Kokrak (45) and Loupe (150).
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Class tends to win around HarbourTown. A technical test, where slashing the ball from the tee actually get's punished. Jason Day take note. Tight fairways with overhanging trees block approach angles and the greens are tiny - especially when compared to Augusta. The main defence that the course has is wind - which in 2016 will play a substantial part - unlike 2015, when the course was soft and yielded birdies for the accurate.
With wind a serious factor and with the winning prices seemingly 80/1 or below I'm keeping it simple this week with 3 players who have either won here or finished runner-up.
Brandt Snedeker (20/1), Zach Johnson (25/1) and Graeme McDowell (50/1).
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Pointless going into detail about Augusta National, but 2016 might see a different spin. Gusting wind up to 25 mph from the west initially and then from the north-west through till end of play Saturday will see scoring at much higher levels. What the means to the critical par-5s at 13 and 15 remains to be seen, but it could potentially restrict them to a 3-shot hole for a vast majority of players. Whether this materially changes the test is a big question, but for me controlled aggression will still win out, especially on a calm Sunday, when it's game-on.
I'm backing Scott (13/1), Fowler (18/1), Matsuyama (40/1) and Leishman (66/1).
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These alternate PGA Tour events are always interesting, especially the Puerto Rico Open where there is plenty of history to wade through. The ability to attack the par-5s with aggressive play is a real advantage at Coco Beach, but naturally the gusting easterly winds can make this a real challenge on plenty of holes where maturity to make par and keep the card clean is equally as important. A liking for Florida + Central American golf, also seems to be a pre-requisite. Up until this point 50/1 is the shortest price of any winner - understandable as those at the top of the betting charts are rarely in that position of being a feature player.
I'm going for Rodgers (28/1 was available as big as 50/1 if you were quick on Monday), Coetzee (40/1), Byrd (60/1) and Fathauer (66/1).
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'Arnie's Tournament' looks a little sparse in 2016, with the lack of real field depth being hidden by McIlroy, Scott, Day, Stenson, Rose and Matsuyama. No Bubba (a very very late WD last week), Fowler, Mickelson who have been regulars of late and naturally we won't talk about TW. Despite being an Invitation-status event, the new schedule which sees the World Match Play being played next week, pre Augusta has not helped at all. Even so, we should see some fine golf with 4 of aforementioned 'big guns' winless in 2016. The course is a classical, Florida set-up which these days is the easiest on the Florida swing. You can thank Donald Trump for that!
Featuring new TifEagle Bermudagrass putting surfaces and Celebration Bermudagrass fairways, the familiarities with Copperhead last week are obvious. However fairways which were widened for 2015 and larger green complexes make this a far easier test. Getting approach shots close to the hole from distance though still proves to be very difficult, so look for those with strong Bermudagrass Strokes Gained Putting stats.
I've gone win only on McIlroy (6) with Casey (50), Kaufman (110) and Brown (125) supporting each-way.
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The Valspar Championship at Copperhead offers up something a little different to the other venues on the Florida swing. A tough, technical course, Copperhead plays more like a classical Carolina course as opposed to a flat Florida track with water everywhere. Plenty of dog leg holes, tree-lined fairways and plenty of elevation changes challenge the best, especially when wind and rain come into play like this week. Look for grinders, who like TifEagle Bermudagrass greens, can play in the wind and have a half-decent record on Carolina courses.
I'm in for Kuchar (33s), G-Mac(40s), Choi(50s) and Kokrak(60).
Nedbank Challenge
in Golf Betting Tips
Posted
The English triumvirate of Fisher, Sullivan and Fitzpatrick for me.