richard-westwood

that's more like it !
well done Richard..........

2 more winners here if anyone noticed?

350 fos las
Pearl swan  98.86
Little Jon  98.81
Bob Ford   98.81 
Pearl swan was hugely impressive last time and looked like a horse on the upgrade ....should be able to handle the step up in trip especially as the opposition look a bit exposed or out of form ...3/1 looks fairly good 
Pearl swan 5 pts win 3/1 stanj

Pearl swan wins easily 

Pearl swan wins easily 

Pearl swan wins easily 

Lol....don't get me wrong I find the whole thing fascinating but its very time consuming and its something you have to plunge whole heartedly into.....I've never seen such a crap run of losers .....I really can't explain why so many horses canbe  so really well backed and then.....nothing....doesn't make sense really so it really could just be a bad run of luck but im gearing up for Cheltenham and I'm beginning my calculations for the big handicaps there .....I really am going to bear all my computing power down on them with no stone left unturned and then sticktop two selections in doubles 5 big races 40 doubles ...all you need is two winners and your off to tenerife ....so that's what I'm working on at them moment and this was just a pleasant distraction .....I still think the raw rating is the way to go without adjusting for weight because that is a purer sense of what speed is rather than water it down ...I mean if two athletics meets were qualifying for Olympics and man a ran 10.1 and man b ran 10.1 but was 9lbs lighter than man a .....you wouldn't say he was any less especially if another race they all ran 10.3 ...yes you have to take it into consideration if man b is carrying carrying a 5lb weight next time but you wouldn't downgrade him to 4th !!! And worse still not let him qualify ? So I haven't forgotten it I'm just going to look for examples that are really far in front and see how they get on ..,by far i mean atnleast 10 pts clear on the raw rating 

Fab run ....and looks perfect type and weight for national now ...54 pts returned 

I've noticed that a lot of the "raw " runners seem to be running better ...mordin wrote about the effect of weight and whether or not to adjust etc ......the dilemma I have is this .....I was doing a thought experiment...imagine two races 
Race a  horse 1 carrying 10st runs -0.2 standard 
   Horse 2 carrying 9st runs also -0.2 standard 
Race b 
Horse a  Carrys 10st runs -0.4 
Horse b 10st runs -0.4 
Let's say -0.2 for arguments sake equates to 95 ...Horse a in race 1 would be allocated a rating of 95+14 =109
Horse b race 1 would be 95 +0 =95
In race b 
Lets say 90 equates to 0.4 so horse a=90+14=104 
Horse b 90 +14 =104 
So even though horse 2 in race 1 ran an outstanding -0.2 ...on the table he is 14 pts behind the same horse he dead heated with and 9 pts behind horses he beat on the clock ??....how the he'll can that be right ? I'm wondering if it would be better to use an unadjusted rating based purely on converting the time achieved ....fir example 
In the first instance final table looks like this 
Horse a race 1 109
Horse 1 race 2 104 
Horse 2 race 2 104 
Horsec2 race 1 95 
 
Whereas purely on time it would look 
Horse a race 1 95
Horse b race 1 95 
Horsec1 racec2 90
Horse 2 race 2 90 
Is this not a more true representation of each horses ability from a pure speed perspective ??.....you cant ignore weight but if they met again and lets say.. horse a racec1 was carrying 6lbs less real weight say 9-8 as opposed to 10st you could add a note as potential to run maybe a couple of points better ..possibly 97 ? Can you see what I mean ? 

All the standards were based on an average runner at each track...approx class 4-5 but it was throwing up some anomalys ...big ratings when classier races were on so I've gone back to the drawing board and only used the classy class 2 races at each course....gives me a more accurate time of what the good horses have been achieving at each course then you can just compare the lower class from that .....I've even blind tested myself in that I can now predict what a  truly run class 2 will be run  in to about 0.2 secs -0.4 secs and ive proven it time and time again so I know the new standards are spot on .....just adjusts them to class 2 that's all
South 5f 57.80
6f    74.50
7f 87.00
 
Ling 5f 57.10
6f  70.03
7f 82.50
8f 95.30
12f 147.53
 
Kemp 5f  58.78
6f  70.60  not much data so may need tightening
7f 85.00
8f 97.80
 
Chelm 5f 58.44
6f 71.00
7f 83.60
8f 97.00
 
Wolv 5f 60.00
6f 72.40
7f 86.47
8f 106.46
 
Newc 5f  58.20
6f 71.40 not much data 
7f 84.50 
98.00
 

I appreciate it .....I love the challenge of getting something right ....and if but was easy then everyone would do it and the only way you can hurt bookies is have an advantage over them....that's the aim...plus im like you I like a good read and follow interesting topics ..ivd learnt so much since i joined this board ...some goid some bad ...ivevhad some fantastic wins my biggest so far being the 1050 pts at cheltenham whichnim determined to beat lol ...but I've seen the improvement and had a lot of fun along the way son in determined to do better !!!

True. Big wins which you are capable of, of course as you have shown before in other posts. Personally, I'm not as brave as you and I go each way to be safe. I hope that this thread works out. It surely seems to be going the right way and all your effort will be worth it. Thank you too, whether it is a win or loss, it is always interesting to read and follow your posts. 

At the moment I knew I would have to sacrifice to get results ....I could go ew or even place bet but returns are small and it increases stakes  and I think if i can string a couple of winners together it will pay a decent amount hopefully ...up to now I've been fine tuning the maths and the standards and I'm rechecking as I go so I'm confident now the sheet is bang on ...that's the aim now ...I'll double up any winner onnthe next race and see where it goes ....I know its capable of winning big now it's settling down I've just got to prove it now ...that's the fun bit...non point winning small if I'm gonna prove speed ratings work its gotta be a big win ....at least 200 pts I reckon to prove it can be done ....and preferably a lot more ...everything up to now has just been fine tuning ....now it's rock n roll time 

This is very interesting and great to see that it's nearly getting there. I want to ask would you not want to go for each way? Although, it's not a lot but for example Compton Prince and Seprani today were in third places and you would have gained a little back at least. I am just interested in your thoughts on this. Thank you. Good luck for your other bets tonight. 

I'm starting to enjoy this now ....I can see the standards are almost spot on now and that's taken a while to fine tune but its very important as the maths doesn't work without them....worth the wait though as now I can concentrate on the racing and hopefully I can run a decent double up soon and justify all the hard work and prove you can win big from speed ratings ....I know it can be done its just the pieces have to fall right for it to happen but its coming I can feel it ....I'm certain of it now ..,.anyway I'll rate another race and get some more practice in 

Josie Gordon on fire!!

Good winner, was clear best on my ratings

Wins easily 

145 ling thurs
Seprani    90
Sea tea dea   90
Auric goldfinger  84
Uric goldfinger is a potential improver but he's somewhat behind the top two who are rated highly for this grade so they should make a bold bid ...
Seprani 5pts win 7/1 bet365
Sea tea dea  5pts 6/1 bet365 

Wins easily 

Won

Newc 410 
Russian soul  98.99
Realize  98.97
Steel train  98.93
Holiday magic  98.93
Top two are a little in front here ...it's a tough race but they have strong form coming in and should run big races ..worth a punt 
Russian soul 4pts winn9/2 pp
Realize 4pts win 7/1 pp
 

Backed into 11/2!!!...pactolus does the business...what a price ..76pts returned that's filled the coffers back up

Newc 410 
Russian soul  98.99
Realize  98.97
Steel train  98.93
Holiday magic  98.93
Top two are a little in front here ...it's a tough race but they have strong form coming in and should run big races ..worth a punt 
Russian soul 4pts winn9/2 pp
Realize 4pts win 7/1 pp
 

Think you mean 'Lightentertainment' the other one runs on the flat at sprint trips.