richard-westwood

Try this just change to 8
https://www.punterslounge.com/bet-calculator
If they are decent prices looks like your look in at a huge payout 

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Finian's Oscar appear to be the hype horse here
The 'insiders' think he's a monster even though this is a big step up in class
Being a bit of a sucker for potential over proven ability I'll stick my pin on Finian's Oscar to outstay the Capitaine up the hill

Good call 
 

Good call 
 

440 Newc
Inaam  98.88
Dutch art dealer  98,87
These two are also a little clear but this race is wide open so can't be overly confident although both have shown good recent form so the 7/1 and 10/1 look decent odds ...worth a play 
Inaam 3 pts win 7/1 pp
Dutch art dealer 3 pts win 10/1 betvic 

115 newb
Yanmare  98.91
Bob Tucker  98.89
Blameitonmyroots 98.86
Tough race this ...blameitonmyroots looks like conditions are coming good and could run a big race but top two are better value overall ...Bob Tucker has run some decent races over big distances and looked to be coming into peak form against Rocky creek so should run well 14/1 is vastly overpriced ....yanmare is the one beat overall ....on a serious upgrade the average of the four horses behing him last time was 113 and he gets in here off 104 so warrants serious respect at 9/2 ....
Yanmare 5 pts win 9/2 bet365
Bob Tucker 2pts win 14/1 betvic 

2.00 chelt
As de mee  99.12
Quite by chance  99.11
Village Vic   99.07
Vaniteux   99.07
Big race of the day village Vic and vaniteux are game sorts and very classy but may struggle to give weight to the top two here who are improving types especially the top rated Nicholls horse who won in a canter last time and could be on the upgrade ...quite by chance has close collateral form with village Vic and it could come down tonluck on the day .between those two  ..,classy race
Quite by chance 5pts win 7/1 pp
As de mee 5 pts win 6/1 pp

Cortncatcher wins nicely 

Nice drift to 14/1 well done and cheers Richard. 

Cortncatcher wins nicely 

1220 leop
Courtncatcher   98.83
The conker club   98.82
I knew well   98.80
I knew well sets a good standard here and could run a big race but 7/2 is no value at all against the 12/1 on the top two ...both ran a good race against each other last time and that looks decent form with the former still open to improvement ....decent value bets against the short priced horses 
Courtncatvher  1 pt ew 12/1 betvic 
The conker club 1 pt ew  12/1 betvic 

Oliver's hill wins ..Foundation man 2nd ...nice run 

2.00 leic 
Domtaline  98.88
Oliver's hill 98,86
Foundation man 98.84
Foundation man beat domtaline last time but the latter made all sorts of mistakes and is better than that so the 8/1 today looks a value price in a rematch ....Oliver's hill has shown a good level of form recently over fences and should run a good race also 8/1 he looks a nice value bet also in an open race ...
Oliver's hill 2 pts win 8/1 bet365
Domtaline 2 pts win 8/1 bet365 

Oliver's hill wins ..Foundation man 2nd ...nice run 

So close....2nd

Let's have a go at a big post xmas win to refill the coffers 
Rated 
Firebird flyer   99.13
Caroles destrier 99.11
Native river   99.08
Typically open race but top two have shown some good form over distances recently and are comingbto peak form ...native river has claims too but top weight and 6/1 isxa no no so id rather be on the 10/1 and 16/1 about the top two ...Let's roll the dice 
Carole destruer 10pts win 10/1 bet365
Furebird flyer 10 pts win 16/1 bet365

A good long lasting recommended burns cream 

3/1 ....wins nicely ....60 pts returned ,,that'll do 

One of the things that vastly underrated is how the horse looks on the day ....after my last few visits to the track I've realised how much this has an effect the race ...my recent visit to Wolverhampton there was a short priced favourite and I was watching them walk around in the ring and I saw the favourite ...coat dull ...head down half asleep ...my friend said who's that and I said the favourite ?....next horse that walked past was probably one hand taller ....lovely shiny coat ...flicking his head up and down and occasionally side stepping looking all fired up ......horse hadn't run for 300 days so we looked at the betting ..9/1 ....straight inside tenner ew on the nose and it won by 4 lengths !!!!....and the favourite finished 7th......it's difficult to see on telly but if you can get to the track then I'd say do it ...it's well worth the effort 

Final Decs

 
Odds

 

My Hennessy Winner via the trends
So we have 20 runners to start with!
9 of the last 10 winners were placed in the first 3 last completed start;
This loses Smad Place, Holywell, Blaklion, Houblon Des Obeaux, Triolo D'Alene
Aubusson, Double Ross, Caroles Destrier, Local Show, Hadrians Approach and Upswing
9 runners left
8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7
This kicks out Regal Encore, Henri Parry Morgan and Theatre Guide
6 runners left
8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st or more
We lose Vyta Du Roc, Coologue, Vicente and Saphir Du Rheu
Just 2 left
8 out of the last 10 Winners were 10/1 or under
Both qualify: Native River 5/1, Un Temps Pour Tout 9/1
7 out of the last 10 Winners were rated over 150
Both qualify: Un Temps Pour Tout 158, Native River 155
7 out of the last 10 winners had previously won at Newbury
We lose Un Temps Pour Tout who incredibly finished second to Native River here last season.
 
Winner: Native River with a very close second for Un Temps Pour Tout

Couldnt find anything else worth putting with him oh well the single will do this week ..nicerun