richard-westwood

I’ve had a go . Bit different to how I rate handicaps but let’s see how it does . 
 
Sunway 29 14/1
Bluestocking 26 9/2
Auguste Rodin 24 6/4
Dubai Honour 24 22/1
Middle Earth 21 9/1
2 points win Sunway 

I am looking but i wont do any ratings until the 48hr im old and i dont want to waste any oxygen 😂

Won, BSP 8.40
72 from 293, LSP 65.87

Can pop any ratings for weekend in here ......I'd already the king George 
Continuous  497 1.11 10/1 
Luxembourg. 493 1.08 10/1 
August Rodin. 483 0.35 5/4 
Sunway. 478. 1.06  10/1 
Currently ....August Rodin looks terrible value back up to 12f ....I think he's better at 10f ....  So continuous and 2nd string Luxembourg look the value bets with a run ....but will he run all 3 ??

820 Leicester
Seargant mayer 267 0.86 13/2 4p
High violet. 264 0.79 13/2
Kirumu. 254 0.34 
Mullins beach 248 1.04 
Seargant mayer looks to be the value bet with combo of form and value 1pt Ew 13/2 4 places 

Can pop any ratings for weekend in here ......I'd already the king George 
Continuous  497 1.11 10/1 
Luxembourg. 493 1.08 10/1 
August Rodin. 483 0.35 5/4 
Sunway. 478. 1.06  10/1 
Currently ....August Rodin looks terrible value back up to 12f ....I think he's better at 10f ....  So continuous and 2nd string Luxembourg look the value bets with a run ....but will he run all 3 ??

Catt 410 
My Honey b. 294   4/1 0.53 
Obee jo 289 8/1 0.91 
Without delay. 279 9/1 1.01 
Obee jo looks the Ew value with 4 places ....1 PT Ew 
 

Well I seem to be developing a specialism in finding the horse that will occupy the final extra place. Is betting on exact finishing position in horse races a thing? 
I'm not one to get carried away generally in the early days of any new betting approach but I'll be staying firmly in my box with this one at least until I manage to find an effing winner! 
It's all good fun though.

Whatever your doing it's working so keep it up 👍

820 Leicester
Seargant mayer 267 0.86 13/2 4p
High violet. 264 0.79 13/2
Kirumu. 254 0.34 
Mullins beach 248 1.04 
Seargant mayer looks to be the value bet with combo of form and value 1pt Ew 13/2 4 places 

Ran a very good race as i thought 

3 out the 4 placed including the two value bets .....finally getting somewhere 

Well if people go back to the experiment for the 1000g 2000g derby and oaks it was quite successful  in identifying value and at least giving an idea of a path to profitability as opposed to just guessing or following the noise. As for Saturday it depends on the races we choose I suppose my personal opinion is that it must be a pattern race or a very top tier handicap if the pattern races cut up to nothing as as happened recently. There are 4 pattern races.
315 york   G2
150 ascot  G3
225 ascot  G3
415 ascot listed
Shall we do all 4? maybe give the small stakes players an option of a lucky 15.?

820 Leicester
Seargant mayer 267 0.86 13/2 4p
High violet. 264 0.79 13/2
Kirumu. 254 0.34 
Mullins beach 248 1.04 
Seargant mayer looks to be the value bet with combo of form and value 1pt Ew 13/2 4 places 

# Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Ghathanfar 6 103.40 62.62 2 Vadamiah 17 101.98 103.37 3 Rock Melody 6 101.44 26.50 4 Albegone 13 101.41 56.31 5 Profitable Edge 11 100.45 15.21 6 Classy Al 9 99.67   7 Ziggy's Queen 10 99.46   8 Le Beau Garcon 4.5 98.83   9 Khabib 9.5 97.49   10 Pockley 41 95.87   If ever the ratings were screaming "no bet" then it would be this race with nothing looking that strong on the rating or the value. Given RW's more knowledgeable take I've played Ghathanfar at 7.25 for a small interest. Vadamiah looks like a potential e/w bet at the price though also look like one of those horses that Zil would caution me off. Small e/w bet again running the risk of favouring price over the extra place.

Whatever your doing it's working so keep it up 👍

3 out the 4 placed including the two value bets .....finally getting somewhere 

N1

3 out the 4 placed including the two value bets .....finally getting somewhere 

3 out the 4 placed including the two value bets .....finally getting somewhere 

# Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Giorgio M 4 105.80 50.11 2 Petra Celera 13 103.74 104.86 3 Rapido Girl 9 102.29 44.41 4 B Associates 17 101.74 63.91 5 Rory 9 101.69 32.75 6 Monhammer 12 100.29 7.54 7 Judgment Call 6.5 99.83   8 Angel Of England 5 98.98   9 Ahamoment 26 84.36   10 Fletchers Dream 26 67.95   Another so-so race in terms of top rating and best value. Played Petra C as best value given RW's take. B Associates looks like one of those muggy e/w bets I sometimes get drawn to. Maybe if it drifts. 17/1 about a pretty much average runner in a 10 horse race where the top rated isn't that far clear? (Of course the value of my ratings is still hugely open to question. The spreadsheet's not bad but I may be running it on cooking oil at the moment rather than 5 start unleaded!)

820 Leicester
Seargant mayer 267 0.86 13/2 4p
High violet. 264 0.79 13/2
Kirumu. 254 0.34 
Mullins beach 248 1.04 
Seargant mayer looks to be the value bet with combo of form and value 1pt Ew 13/2 4 places 

2nd
 
450 m Trojan Sun 5/2

Classy al messed the start,  should have won. 
 
430 l Harry The Haggler 9/2

2 out the 3 placed ...not bad for a 5f race ...we are getting there