richard-westwood

What a day of racing we have, can't wait to watch the Oaks 💥
Today's selections for me...
1630 Epsom Oaks Ylang Ylang 15/8 (with a price boost) 2pt win 
&
Ezeliya 11/2 1pt e/w 4 places
Happy to take both at the prices. My Ylang Ylang bet is a free £20 bet with Unibet so I'm happy to back that to win with an e/w saver on Ezeliya who I just can't see being out of the top 4. Whatever happens it should be a fantastic race but if Ylang Ylang turns up, it should simply be too good. 
My only other bet of the day comes at Donny...
2015 Doncaster Sir Galahad 4/1 2pt win
Really liked how SG shaped LTO and feel there is much more to come. Surprised at the 4/1 available, would have SG much shorter so happy to have a 2pt win. 
6pts staked in total (4pts from the betting bank + 2pt free bet).
That'll be it for me today unless I get any info which of course is possible. 
Good luck everyone 🐎💥

Fantastic Fox                                                      2 35 Eps/               1/40th of a pt ew   18/1        -  5th
Holder                                                                 5 40 Eps/               1/40th of a pt ew   16/1
Dance Sequence                                               4 30 Eps/               1/40th of a pt ew   22/1          -2nd
Earls                                                                    5 40 Eps/               1/40th of a pt ew   20/1
Blue For You                                                      2 35 Eps/               1/40th of a pt ew   22/1
Mysterious Love                                               3 45 Eps/               1/40th of a pt ew    38/1

235 epsom 
Koy koy  8.7 11/2
Bopedro. 8.5 16/1
Blue for you.  8.3 12/1
Notre belle bete 8.0
Conditions have come right for koy koy and with w Buick up he should improve in what he's shown lately .....bopedro beat blue for you last time and I can't see any reason for a reverse so bopedro looks excellent value with 5 places on offer 
Let's have a shot at a big win 
10pt wins top two 
Forecasts top 3 .....

235 epsom 
Koy koy  8.7 11/2
Bopedro. 8.5 16/1
Blue for you.  8.3 12/1
Notre belle bete 8.0
Conditions have come right for koy koy and with w Buick up he should improve in what he's shown lately .....bopedro beat blue for you last time and I can't see any reason for a reverse so bopedro looks excellent value with 5 places on offer 
Let's have a shot at a big win 
10pt wins top two 
Forecasts top 3 .....

Trends for the Oaks
Forecast odds 9/4 to 7/1, 7 wins from 23 runs, LSP 32 points
Bred in Ireland, 7 from 58, LSP 90
FPLR > 1, 5 FROM 60, LSP 82
This leaves RUBIES ARE RED at 7/1

235 epsom 
Koy koy  8.7 11/2
Bopedro. 8.5 16/1
Blue for you.  8.3 12/1
Notre belle bete 8.0
Conditions have come right for koy koy and with w Buick up he should improve in what he's shown lately .....bopedro beat blue for you last time and I can't see any reason for a reverse so bopedro looks excellent value with 5 places on offer 
Let's have a shot at a big win 
10pt wins top two 
Forecasts top 3 .....

Okay now all the Talk is out the way time to declare where i am putting my wonga. Already had a few bets, the following are what i am going to do now all the calculations are in.
The Derby-
£20 win        Ambiente Friendly     6/1
£2.50 EW     Mr Hampstead          150/1
£1.50  R/FC. &  £1R/EX
The Oaks-
£20 win     You Got To Me         10/1
£5   win     Dance sequence      14/1
£1.50  R/FC &  £1R/EX
Total=£60.00

Trends for the Derby
Draw 7 to 14, 9 winners from 73 runners, LSP 75 points. Remainder 1 from 72, LSP -54.
Last ran more than 22 days ago, 8 from 89, LSP 35
This leaves 5, all at big odds
TABLETALK 100/1
MACDUFF 14/1
BELLUM JUSTUM 22/1
DEIRA MILE 25/1
DALLAS STAR 33/1
 

Emily Upjohn and Ezeliya double  . Dermot Weld is a master at preparing good horses having just a few runs and on breeding looks the part .

Whatever hAppens .....will the o brien horses stay and show their true form .....is something going to blitz out the pack ...plenty of runners ....2 very exciting races wherever you stand .....just what racing and the doctor ordered 😁😁

235 epsom 
Koy koy  8.7 11/2
Bopedro. 8.5 16/1
Blue for you.  8.3 12/1
Notre belle bete 8.0
Conditions have come right for koy koy and with w Buick up he should improve in what he's shown lately .....bopedro beat blue for you last time and I can't see any reason for a reverse so bopedro looks excellent value with 5 places on offer 
Let's have a shot at a big win 
10pt wins top two 
Forecasts top 3 .....

235 epsom 
Koy koy  8.7 11/2
Bopedro. 8.5 16/1
Blue for you.  8.3 12/1
Notre belle bete 8.0
Conditions have come right for koy koy and with w Buick up he should improve in what he's shown lately .....bopedro beat blue for you last time and I can't see any reason for a reverse so bopedro looks excellent value with 5 places on offer 
Let's have a shot at a big win 
10pt wins top two 
Forecasts top 3 .....

Whatever hAppens .....will the o brien horses stay and show their true form .....is something going to blitz out the pack ...plenty of runners ....2 very exciting races wherever you stand .....just what racing and the doctor ordered 😁😁

235 epsom 
Koy koy  8.7 11/2
Bopedro. 8.5 16/1
Blue for you.  8.3 12/1
Notre belle bete 8.0
Conditions have come right for koy koy and with w Buick up he should improve in what he's shown lately .....bopedro beat blue for you last time and I can't see any reason for a reverse so bopedro looks excellent value with 5 places on offer 
Let's have a shot at a big win 
10pt wins top two 
Forecasts top 3 .....

Oh dear ...coffin box for city ....that's a big negative lol 😆 looking at that I'd say bonus points for ancient wisdom for certain 

235 epsom 
Koy koy  8.7 11/2
Bopedro. 8.5 16/1
Blue for you.  8.3 12/1
Notre belle bete 8.0
Conditions have come right for koy koy and with w Buick up he should improve in what he's shown lately .....bopedro beat blue for you last time and I can't see any reason for a reverse so bopedro looks excellent value with 5 places on offer 
Let's have a shot at a big win 
10pt wins top two 
Forecasts top 3 .....

Epsom 2.00 The first race of seven races on day one of the Derby meeting is the 6F Woodcote Stakes for two year olds. There will definitely be some ease in the ground, it’s just a case of how much. The two that catch my eye are Ralph Beckett’s Megalithic who was very well backed on his racecourse debut at Salisbury a fortnight ago when finishing third in a race that looked strong for the course. His trainer spoke positively about him the following day when discussing his best juveniles and he should run well with the only negative being his draw of nine of 10. Richard Hannon’s New Charter is related to the super mare Time Charter from some way back and ran a race full of promise on her debut when chasing home the smart Godolphin filly Mountain Breeze under Hollie Doyle. Sean Levey takes over now and from a better draw than Megalithic in stall 3 is the selection.   NEW CHARTER 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365   Epsom 2.35 A decent sized field of sixteen have declared for this class 2 1m 113 yard handicap. The race has an open look about it with the likes of Koy Koy, who was a tad unlucky last time when getting into a bumping match inside the final furlong, last year’s runner up Dutch Decoy who was very disappointing at York last time and Fantastic Fox who was 8th last time in the 7F Victoria Cup and will appreciate stepping up in trip here, all holding claims. David O’Meara saddles a trio of horses all with chances with Jason Watson’s mount Bopedro the one that takes my eye. He goes on any ground and has fallen to what appears to be a winning mark. A further one pound drop for an excellent third at York to Port Lynas last time out is welcome and he looks good each way value in a competitive handicap.   BOPEDRO 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 12345   Epsom 3.10 The 1M 4F Group 1 Coronation Cup has only attracted a disappointing field of five for this £445,000 guaranteed contest. Officially the best in here is last year’s winner trained by John & Thady Gosden in the shape of Emily Upjohn. She can take a keen hold though and will wear a hood. She may well win but she has disappointing in the past so to my eyes is worth opposing. Aidan O’Brien’s Luxembourg is next in the betting but is unproven at this trip and it may be worth looking for an upset. French trainer Pascal Bary brings over his four year old colt Feed The Flame and he looks the best value bet in the contest. Sixth in last year’s Arc De Triomphe he stepped up from his re-appearance run to finish third (beaten 1/2L) in the Prix Ganay at Longchamp in April. Christian Demuro, his regular rider is over to ride and should give us a good run for our money. William Haggas’s mud lover Hamish is also not out of it especially if the rain continues to fall and is worth a small stakes saver.   FEED THE FLAME 1 point win @ 9/2 bet365 HAMISH 1/2 point win @ 11/1 888Sport   Epsom 3.45 Fourteen go to post for this class 2 1M 2F handicap. As long as theres plenty of cut in the ground the one to beat is the Karl Burke trained Bolster who looked a horse going places when winning at Pontefract on his re-appearance on soft ground under Pierre-Louis Jamin back in April. He’s missed two gigs since due to the drying ground so the more rain the better for this Sheikh Obaid owned four year old who’s won three of his 5 races in total. In the same ownership, it will be no shock to see Bolster’s stable mate Liberty Lane run a big race despite a 5lb rise for his Newmarket win 27 days ago. He too will love any more rain.   BOLSTER 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Epsom 4.30 A dozen three year old fillies have declared for this year’s renewal of the Betfred Oaks. The warm favourite and the clear form horse is the Aidan O’Brien trained Ylang Ylang, a group one winner on soft ground as a juvenile who ran an eye catching seasonal start when fifth (beaten just a length) in the 1000 Guinness at Newmarket. That form has already been franked by the subsequent Irish and German 1000 Guineas victories of the 8th and 14th. She is stepping up to 1M 4F from a mile and although I’ve no doubt she’ll stay 10F there is a small doubt about 1M 4F. She’ll still be hard to beat mind and is the selection. Official ratings have her 6lb and more in hand of her rivals with the Dermot Weld trained Ezeliya a possible danger having looked good on her re-appearance when winning the Group 3 Salsabil Stakes at Navan over 1M 2F. The runner up and fifth have both been turned over since though in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Ralph Beckett has a strong prescience in the race with four runners all of whom have place claims. The best of the quartet may be Forest Fairy who is unbeaten in her two starts including the Cheshire Oaks last time out and if handling easier ground can run a big race. If the favourite stays I think she wins.   YLANG YLANG 1 point win 9/4 William Hill   Epsom 5.10 The 7F Aston Martin Surrey Stakes is a listed contest and has attracted a field of seven. There has to be doubts about Stuart Williams’s Pandora’s Gift who has yet to run on the turf and at today’s trip. Ralph Beckett has the favourite in Zoum Zoum who was runner up in the Greenham on his seasonal re-appearance but has to shoulder a 3lb penalty today as well as the form of the Greenham not really working out. I’m happy to take the pair of them on. Archie Watson has taken over the training of the former Andre Fabre Evade and is an interesting runner. He won first time out last season prior to keeping good company in group races and a recent entry in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup looks positive. The Qatar Racing Limited owned three year old will be ridden by Oisin Murphy and looks value, especially with those firms (Hills, Betfred, bet365 & 888 sport) who are paying three places.   EVADE 1 point each way @ 15/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   Epsom 5.40 Day one of Oaks day is completed by a twelve runner 7F class 2 handicap. Last year’s 1-2-3 are all back to renew rivalry with the winner Spanish Star, runner up Darkness and third Marlay Park only separated by two lengths last year. The value bet may well be the latter who has a great record here of four wins from 14 starts and has had a wind operation since last seen. If that has helped local trainer Jim Boyle’s six year old then she may be able to out run her odds from a good draw in stall 5. Richard Hannon’s Dark Thirty is drawn alongside and brings in some decent recent form and should run well but at the prices I’ll chance the local runner Marlay Park.   MARLAY PARK 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet35 1/5th 1234

Going had been updated to good/sft and that looks accurate with hopefully no more rain so that's worth bearing in mind with bets 

Going had been updated to good/sft and that looks accurate with hopefully no more rain so that's worth bearing in mind with bets 

While we wait for the Oaks market to reform, presumably due to the 48 hour stage, here's the main ratings for the Derby with a clear top rated and an eye-catching e/w option in 3rd place.
# Horse Odds BF AvAv 1 AMBIENTE FRIENDLY 8 7.8 117.9 2 ANCIENT WISDOM 6 6 110.2 3 ILLINOIS 41 60 108.2 4 CITY OF TROY 4 4.7 107.2 5 DANCING GEMINI 13 17 105.3 6 SAYEDATY SEDATY 67 80 101.5 7 MACDUFF 15 15 98.9 8 MR HAMPSTEAD 151 150 98.0 9 BELLUM JUSTUM 26 29 96.9 10 LOS ANGELESE 5 5.3 97.0 11 DIEGO VALAZQUEZ 34 110 96.8 12 DEIRA MILE 26 30 94.7 13 PORTLAND 101 70 94.2 14 GODS WINDOW 101 80 93.5 15 EUPHORIC 41 50 91.9 16 DALLAS STAR 41 46 87.9 17 KAMBOO 151 170 86.8 18 PADESHA 101 500 86.6 19 VOYAGE 26 24 83.5 20 TABLETALK 101 150 80.7

The oaks is a big puzzle ...a lot of the trials have been run on good .....because the ground has gone soft and ylang ylang will love that and the fact he's out of Frankel who has come to the fore of sires .....and the fact that o brien surely has to take one of these ......there are too many ticks for that one now....🤔

See ....I really like ancient wisdom and the ratings seem to back that up to at least place .... so because of the unknown quantity in city of Troy (who has a potential 10lb advantage on rpr if he bounces back ) then the Ew on ancient at 5/1 with corals  seems a decent bet 

Not a lot between the top 4 in the Oaks. 
Again the Lingfield trial appears to be the key race, You Got To Me beat Rubies Are Red but is 12/1 compared to 4/1. Guess which one is trained by Aiden O'Brien !

I agree with City Of Troy, I didn't have him well rated before the guineas and he was rubbish in that.
Based on my speed figures the key race is the Lingfield Derby Trial which was run 1.71 secs faster than standard.
On that basis I have Ambient Friendly top rated at 7/1 with Illinos 2nd at 40/1

Oaks ...
Ylang ylang  9.0 
Ezeliya 9.0 
Secret satire. 8.6
Opera singer 8.3 
You got to me 8.1 
Rubies are red 8.1 
Forest fairy 8.0 
Caught you looking 8.0
Treasure 7.8 
Everlasting 7.8 
Dance sequence. 7 .4 
Seeward. 7.4 
Buttons.  7.0 
Making dreams 6.8 
War chimes 6.5 
Very very difficult race to assess because on paper this looks a sub standard oaks .....there's more likelyhood that something is going shoot forward on the day but the question is who !??
The average oaks winner is around rpr 115 .....ylang is 110 ....ezeliya 106 ...secret satire 106 ....rest are no where near so far so for me it's between the top 3 .......ylang is the group one performer but only at 8f ....surely Aiden o brien has got to win a big race ???... Is this the one ?.....ezeliya looks a true oaks type .....improving fast and won over 10f last time in a canter .....improvement of 5 to 6lb would put her fav imo ...isn't stepping up much further distance wise and improvement very likely 
Secret satire looks to have decent place claims and has been backed from big odds into around 14/1 ....that still looks value 
For me ....it's ezeliya ....but this could be a titanic battle if ylang gets the distance .....classy race