shikovd

Having just read the rules to the Betting Systems thread, I will give a bit more info. I am new here so didn't read it at first as I put my original post in the tennis thread. 
The system basically takes years worth of data for results and compares it to how it should have performed according to what the market predicted (start price). If something is overperforming or underperforming according to historical results, then the player is either a back or their opponent is. 
The bet is then placed roughly 40/50 ticks higher than their current price when I check the data and make the selections, in the hope they will drift that far, be matched, then win. You can watch the match and just bet in play if they reach a higher odds than listed, but I like not having to follow so many matches so I place the bet and leave it. 
I am hoping their SP is value due to the algorithm indicating it is, but with an extra 40/50 ticks, the value will be increased. Time will tell. 
As for the last two bets remaining for the day, Coria is currently a set up and hasn't been matched. Smith has already drifted pre-match and been matched so no need to wait for in play on that one. 
 

Japan lead 2-0 after day one, should get the job done.

J-L Struff to beat G. Dimitrov @2.20 with bet35

Dimitrov again showed that he mentally is not ok, his first serve was under 46% and he made a lot of double errors. He beat Berrettini only because Berrettini was frustrated that he lost control of the match and start making a lot of unforced errors. 
Struff also didn't play very good but he is a fighter and showed good performance at the 3rd set against Shapovalov. Struff beat already Dimitrov in Montre Carlo therefore, with Dimitrov's current form, Struff will dominate this match and win it.

GL!
 

M.Cecchinato to beat D.Dzumhur 2:0 sets @1.72 Bet365

It's obvious who is the better player on a clay court. Dzumhur hasn't played any clay matches this year and on hard courts, his performance was under his level. Last year he had again negative win-loss on clay and he played twice with Cecchinato who won easily on both matches. 

On the other hand, Marco already played some matches on clay courts and won Buenos Aires. I think he will start strong and won't let any surprises because the next match will be with Wawrinka. 

GL!

M.Cecchinato to beat D.Dzumhur 2:0 sets @1.72 Bet365

It's obvious who is the better player on a clay court. Dzumhur hasn't played any clay matches this year and on hard courts, his performance was under his level. Last year he had again negative win-loss on clay and he played twice with Cecchinato who won easily on both matches. 

On the other hand, Marco already played some matches on clay courts and won Buenos Aires. I think he will start strong and won't let any surprises because the next match will be with Wawrinka. 

GL!

Did you watch the game?  The match was suspended a few times due to rain, after the first pause, there wasn't a video to watch the game. First 7 games Filip destroyed FFS, and he lost the rhythm after the pause. After 7th game, Filip started to play with FFS and that's why this happened - he lost a set. In the end, he destroyed FFS again with 10-2 games difference and those 2 games were very difficult for FFS again. Imo, Filip can win this match, but I wouldn't bet before to see how both are playing. GL
 

Did you watch the game?  The match was suspended a few times due to rain, after the first pause, there wasn't a video to watch the game. First 7 games Filip destroyed FFS, and he lost the rhythm after the pause. After 7th game, Filip started to play with FFS and that's why this happened - he lost a set. In the end, he destroyed FFS again with 10-2 games difference and those 2 games were very difficult for FFS again. Imo, Filip can win this match, but I wouldn't bet before to see how both are playing. GL
 

Agree with Czech about Harrison, but I will play him without the handicap:

Harrison @1.33

Paolo Lorenzi to beat A. Bedene @1.66 - Bedene is still injured.
Carreno-Busta.P to beat A.Ramos @1.40 - Carreno-Busta much better than A.Ramos on hardcourts. 

M.Sharapova -4.5 against I.Begu @1.66 - Begu is totally out of form and Maria won't give her a game if Begu doesn't deserve it.

Okay, going with these three in addition to Harrison.
Miyu Kato (+6) to beat Daria Gavrilova at 1.72 with Pinnacle
Gavrilova has been strangely subdued lately, she's just not in any sort of form - and she does need form in order for her game to function properly. Kato should be a tough customer after what she's done lately in any case.

No need to be sorry at all. Thank you and others as usual for your effort, predictions and the write ups. There are always ups and downs and it's up to others whether they follow or not. Much appreciated. Good luck with all the bets to everyone. 

Hi Guys, 
For today:
Agree with Czech prediction Ostapenko to beat Cirstea @1.44
Kvitova to beat Strycova @1.36 (after yesterday win against Wozniacki and H2H record 6-1 I think Kvitova will win this match).
Svitolina to beat Garcia @1.50 (Finally someone who can stop Garcia  ) 

Good Luck!
 

Hi Guys, 
For today:
Agree with Czech prediction Ostapenko to beat Cirstea @1.44
Kvitova to beat Strycova @1.36 (after yesterday win against Wozniacki and H2H record 6-1 I think Kvitova will win this match).
Svitolina to beat Garcia @1.50 (Finally someone who can stop Garcia  ) 

Good Luck!
 

Agree with you. Dimitrov had two difficult matches and he won in both, so my money goes to Dimitrov.

DIMITROV @1.73

In my opinion Grigor is better in the ATP tour, bulgarian player have very good and stable serve, and he has well one-hand backhand. Bautista play interesting tennis, but tomorrow Dimitrov wins. They have 3 games between each over, and 2 matches won by the bulgarian. RBA won just 1 game. Grigor will be very aggresive and will play too good for RBA

WTA Beijing finalists:
From what I saw until now 3 players have very big changes to win WTA Beijing - Halep, Wozniacki and Svitolina (it's still a little bit early for Svitolina but still...).

On the bottom draw, I don't see who can beat Halep. Pliskova? Ostapenko?, no ... Halep has a very good record against Pliskova 5-1. I cannot understand what Pliskova is doing on top4, even she was top1 for some weeks  Como on, are the players cannot understand that everyone can beat her with drop shots and cross-court balls? She has only the service, that's it... nothing more.
Ostapenko, is young and inexperienced. I doubt that currently, she can beat Halep. Did you saw what Halep did with Sharapova and Rybarikova? She had problems only in the first set against Riske. Hence, Halep to proceed to the final. 

On the upper draw, from the last 8 players there I see that only Wozniacki or Svitolina can reach the final. The question is who from both?  Svitolina has record 3-0 against Wozniacki but I don;t know whether she will have the training practice to beat Wozniacki. 

So my prediction for the final is Wozniacki vs Halep.

I think to bet on below ladies to win Beijing with the same amount:
Halep @ 5.50
Wozniacki @ 8.50
Svitolina @ 5.50

Good Luck!

I hate to write predictions (obviously from my previous posts) but here some for tomorrow  
Singles:
Svitolina -4.5 games against Vesnina @1.83
Svitolina is in top 3 players this year with 48-11 win-loss record (or 81.4 winning %), while Vesnina is with 22-20 (or 52.4 winning %).
To continue Svitolina won 49.4% return points which make her top1 for 2017 calendar, while Vesnina is in 23rd place with 44.9%. As additional Svitolina is top2 with 54.4% total points won after Serena and before Pliskova.
Svitolina has one month time to recover and train after US Open and this is her first tournament since then. She was very solid versus Barty and I'm pretty sure that she could win this more easily if she wanted.
On other hand Vesnina is a mid-range player, she had some difficulties against 99th in the World Duan Y. and she was broke two times in an easy game. She is not a consistent player.
Svitolina drop one service game against Barty, but Barty for me is one of the future top10 players, otherwise, the result might be different.
Prediction: Easy win for Svitolina and to control the match.
J.Ostapenko to beat S.Peng @1.53
Yes, Peng has the home advantage but this doesn't make her winner here. Peng is a very inconsistent player, and if you watched her against Niculescu from 19 games 11 were breaks...
Ostapenko is young and hungry for victories, less experienced but she has the talent to be number1 if she continues to learn and practice more on some aspects (1st serve, 2nd serve, unforced errors and sometimes to be more patience). 
Since US Open Peng has 4 wins and 2 loses, only one of the wins was unexpected from me - against Kvitova but Kvitova after the injury is still searching her rhythm. While Ostapenko is unstoppable, only 1 loss against Barty (future top 10 player :)).
I won't give and percentages here because these two players are very inconsistent in their performance, however, I believe Ostapenko will take this match.
Prediction: Match with a lot of unforced errors, and hopefully Ostapenko will do less
 
Wozniacki to beat Kvitova @1.66
Wozniacki has 43-11 win-loss or 80% winning matches, while Kvitova is with 17-9 or 65%. A lot of statistic for these players but it won't help because Kvitova is still trying to find her best form after the injury.
Kvitova played 6 tournaments after grass over and she had a very good strike on US Open but only this, on all other matches she was very inconsistent and losses from average players. She had to work a lot to beat Kristina Pliskova and Lepchenko which means she is not her best form.
Now for Wozniacki, she played 3 finals and won only one, besides the lost from Sakkari (who played very well this match). Wozniacki is having a very good winning strike. Currently, I think she and Svitolina are on top form at the moment.
Prediction: Tough match for Wozniacki but in my opinion, she will win this one.

A.Cornet - C.Garcia : over21.5 games @1.83
2-way match... both are in very good form, both have a very good winning strike but only one will win this match.
Carcia is on top of her form since US Open and has only one loss against Muguruza. She won Wuhan Open and I guess she will be a little tired despite she started from the 2nd round. Her victories are not against top players but currently, she is consistent and playing good tennis.
Cornet impressed me with her tennis lately and she also is on good strike with two losses since US Open. For me, she is an unpredictable player, one game she is playing really good on the next her unforced errors give the opponent a good advantage and she losing. 
Prediction: Tough game to predict but I think both will fight to proceed further in the next round.

B.Strycova to beat D.Gavrilova @1.83 (Risky)
Didn't have the chance to watch their last games, but Strycova is very experienced and strategic player, she knows how to win matches. I just checked their last meeting on August and saw a lot of breaks.
The percentages of 1st and 2nd serve, return points, etc were almost equal.
Prediction: My two cents on the more experienced player.
Accumulator:
Svitolina to beat Vesnina @1.28
Ostapenko to beat Peng @1.53
Corne vs Garcia : over 8.5 games in 1st set @1.36
Strycova vs Gavrilova: over 7.5 games in 1st set @1.12
==========================================================
Odd: 2.98

Great write-ups @shikovd!

WTA Beijing finalists:
From what I saw until now 3 players have very big changes to win WTA Beijing - Halep, Wozniacki and Svitolina (it's still a little bit early for Svitolina but still...).

On the bottom draw, I don't see who can beat Halep. Pliskova? Ostapenko?, no ... Halep has a very good record against Pliskova 5-1. I cannot understand what Pliskova is doing on top4, even she was top1 for some weeks  Como on, are the players cannot understand that everyone can beat her with drop shots and cross-court balls? She has only the service, that's it... nothing more.
Ostapenko, is young and inexperienced. I doubt that currently, she can beat Halep. Did you saw what Halep did with Sharapova and Rybarikova? She had problems only in the first set against Riske. Hence, Halep to proceed to the final. 

On the upper draw, from the last 8 players there I see that only Wozniacki or Svitolina can reach the final. The question is who from both?  Svitolina has record 3-0 against Wozniacki but I don;t know whether she will have the training practice to beat Wozniacki. 

So my prediction for the final is Wozniacki vs Halep.

I think to bet on below ladies to win Beijing with the same amount:
Halep @ 5.50
Wozniacki @ 8.50
Svitolina @ 5.50

Good Luck!

I hate to write predictions (obviously from my previous posts) but here some for tomorrow  
Singles:
Svitolina -4.5 games against Vesnina @1.83
Svitolina is in top 3 players this year with 48-11 win-loss record (or 81.4 winning %), while Vesnina is with 22-20 (or 52.4 winning %).
To continue Svitolina won 49.4% return points which make her top1 for 2017 calendar, while Vesnina is in 23rd place with 44.9%. As additional Svitolina is top2 with 54.4% total points won after Serena and before Pliskova.
Svitolina has one month time to recover and train after US Open and this is her first tournament since then. She was very solid versus Barty and I'm pretty sure that she could win this more easily if she wanted.
On other hand Vesnina is a mid-range player, she had some difficulties against 99th in the World Duan Y. and she was broke two times in an easy game. She is not a consistent player.
Svitolina drop one service game against Barty, but Barty for me is one of the future top10 players, otherwise, the result might be different.
Prediction: Easy win for Svitolina and to control the match.
J.Ostapenko to beat S.Peng @1.53
Yes, Peng has the home advantage but this doesn't make her winner here. Peng is a very inconsistent player, and if you watched her against Niculescu from 19 games 11 were breaks...
Ostapenko is young and hungry for victories, less experienced but she has the talent to be number1 if she continues to learn and practice more on some aspects (1st serve, 2nd serve, unforced errors and sometimes to be more patience). 
Since US Open Peng has 4 wins and 2 loses, only one of the wins was unexpected from me - against Kvitova but Kvitova after the injury is still searching her rhythm. While Ostapenko is unstoppable, only 1 loss against Barty (future top 10 player :)).
I won't give and percentages here because these two players are very inconsistent in their performance, however, I believe Ostapenko will take this match.
Prediction: Match with a lot of unforced errors, and hopefully Ostapenko will do less
 
Wozniacki to beat Kvitova @1.66
Wozniacki has 43-11 win-loss or 80% winning matches, while Kvitova is with 17-9 or 65%. A lot of statistic for these players but it won't help because Kvitova is still trying to find her best form after the injury.
Kvitova played 6 tournaments after grass over and she had a very good strike on US Open but only this, on all other matches she was very inconsistent and losses from average players. She had to work a lot to beat Kristina Pliskova and Lepchenko which means she is not her best form.
Now for Wozniacki, she played 3 finals and won only one, besides the lost from Sakkari (who played very well this match). Wozniacki is having a very good winning strike. Currently, I think she and Svitolina are on top form at the moment.
Prediction: Tough match for Wozniacki but in my opinion, she will win this one.

A.Cornet - C.Garcia : over21.5 games @1.83
2-way match... both are in very good form, both have a very good winning strike but only one will win this match.
Carcia is on top of her form since US Open and has only one loss against Muguruza. She won Wuhan Open and I guess she will be a little tired despite she started from the 2nd round. Her victories are not against top players but currently, she is consistent and playing good tennis.
Cornet impressed me with her tennis lately and she also is on good strike with two losses since US Open. For me, she is an unpredictable player, one game she is playing really good on the next her unforced errors give the opponent a good advantage and she losing. 
Prediction: Tough game to predict but I think both will fight to proceed further in the next round.

B.Strycova to beat D.Gavrilova @1.83 (Risky)
Didn't have the chance to watch their last games, but Strycova is very experienced and strategic player, she knows how to win matches. I just checked their last meeting on August and saw a lot of breaks.
The percentages of 1st and 2nd serve, return points, etc were almost equal.
Prediction: My two cents on the more experienced player.
Accumulator:
Svitolina to beat Vesnina @1.28
Ostapenko to beat Peng @1.53
Corne vs Garcia : over 8.5 games in 1st set @1.36
Strycova vs Gavrilova: over 7.5 games in 1st set @1.12
==========================================================
Odd: 2.98

WTA Beijing finalists:
From what I saw until now 3 players have very big changes to win WTA Beijing - Halep, Wozniacki and Svitolina (it's still a little bit early for Svitolina but still...).

On the bottom draw, I don't see who can beat Halep. Pliskova? Ostapenko?, no ... Halep has a very good record against Pliskova 5-1. I cannot understand what Pliskova is doing on top4, even she was top1 for some weeks  Como on, are the players cannot understand that everyone can beat her with drop shots and cross-court balls? She has only the service, that's it... nothing more.
Ostapenko, is young and inexperienced. I doubt that currently, she can beat Halep. Did you saw what Halep did with Sharapova and Rybarikova? She had problems only in the first set against Riske. Hence, Halep to proceed to the final. 

On the upper draw, from the last 8 players there I see that only Wozniacki or Svitolina can reach the final. The question is who from both?  Svitolina has record 3-0 against Wozniacki but I don;t know whether she will have the training practice to beat Wozniacki. 

So my prediction for the final is Wozniacki vs Halep.

I think to bet on below ladies to win Beijing with the same amount:
Halep @ 5.50
Wozniacki @ 8.50
Svitolina @ 5.50

Good Luck!

I hate to write predictions (obviously from my previous posts) but here some for tomorrow  
Singles:
Svitolina -4.5 games against Vesnina @1.83
Svitolina is in top 3 players this year with 48-11 win-loss record (or 81.4 winning %), while Vesnina is with 22-20 (or 52.4 winning %).
To continue Svitolina won 49.4% return points which make her top1 for 2017 calendar, while Vesnina is in 23rd place with 44.9%. As additional Svitolina is top2 with 54.4% total points won after Serena and before Pliskova.
Svitolina has one month time to recover and train after US Open and this is her first tournament since then. She was very solid versus Barty and I'm pretty sure that she could win this more easily if she wanted.
On other hand Vesnina is a mid-range player, she had some difficulties against 99th in the World Duan Y. and she was broke two times in an easy game. She is not a consistent player.
Svitolina drop one service game against Barty, but Barty for me is one of the future top10 players, otherwise, the result might be different.
Prediction: Easy win for Svitolina and to control the match.
J.Ostapenko to beat S.Peng @1.53
Yes, Peng has the home advantage but this doesn't make her winner here. Peng is a very inconsistent player, and if you watched her against Niculescu from 19 games 11 were breaks...
Ostapenko is young and hungry for victories, less experienced but she has the talent to be number1 if she continues to learn and practice more on some aspects (1st serve, 2nd serve, unforced errors and sometimes to be more patience). 
Since US Open Peng has 4 wins and 2 loses, only one of the wins was unexpected from me - against Kvitova but Kvitova after the injury is still searching her rhythm. While Ostapenko is unstoppable, only 1 loss against Barty (future top 10 player :)).
I won't give and percentages here because these two players are very inconsistent in their performance, however, I believe Ostapenko will take this match.
Prediction: Match with a lot of unforced errors, and hopefully Ostapenko will do less
 
Wozniacki to beat Kvitova @1.66
Wozniacki has 43-11 win-loss or 80% winning matches, while Kvitova is with 17-9 or 65%. A lot of statistic for these players but it won't help because Kvitova is still trying to find her best form after the injury.
Kvitova played 6 tournaments after grass over and she had a very good strike on US Open but only this, on all other matches she was very inconsistent and losses from average players. She had to work a lot to beat Kristina Pliskova and Lepchenko which means she is not her best form.
Now for Wozniacki, she played 3 finals and won only one, besides the lost from Sakkari (who played very well this match). Wozniacki is having a very good winning strike. Currently, I think she and Svitolina are on top form at the moment.
Prediction: Tough match for Wozniacki but in my opinion, she will win this one.

A.Cornet - C.Garcia : over21.5 games @1.83
2-way match... both are in very good form, both have a very good winning strike but only one will win this match.
Carcia is on top of her form since US Open and has only one loss against Muguruza. She won Wuhan Open and I guess she will be a little tired despite she started from the 2nd round. Her victories are not against top players but currently, she is consistent and playing good tennis.
Cornet impressed me with her tennis lately and she also is on good strike with two losses since US Open. For me, she is an unpredictable player, one game she is playing really good on the next her unforced errors give the opponent a good advantage and she losing. 
Prediction: Tough game to predict but I think both will fight to proceed further in the next round.

B.Strycova to beat D.Gavrilova @1.83 (Risky)
Didn't have the chance to watch their last games, but Strycova is very experienced and strategic player, she knows how to win matches. I just checked their last meeting on August and saw a lot of breaks.
The percentages of 1st and 2nd serve, return points, etc were almost equal.
Prediction: My two cents on the more experienced player.
Accumulator:
Svitolina to beat Vesnina @1.28
Ostapenko to beat Peng @1.53
Corne vs Garcia : over 8.5 games in 1st set @1.36
Strycova vs Gavrilova: over 7.5 games in 1st set @1.12
==========================================================
Odd: 2.98

WTA Beijing finalists:
From what I saw until now 3 players have very big changes to win WTA Beijing - Halep, Wozniacki and Svitolina (it's still a little bit early for Svitolina but still...).

On the bottom draw, I don't see who can beat Halep. Pliskova? Ostapenko?, no ... Halep has a very good record against Pliskova 5-1. I cannot understand what Pliskova is doing on top4, even she was top1 for some weeks  Como on, are the players cannot understand that everyone can beat her with drop shots and cross-court balls? She has only the service, that's it... nothing more.
Ostapenko, is young and inexperienced. I doubt that currently, she can beat Halep. Did you saw what Halep did with Sharapova and Rybarikova? She had problems only in the first set against Riske. Hence, Halep to proceed to the final. 

On the upper draw, from the last 8 players there I see that only Wozniacki or Svitolina can reach the final. The question is who from both?  Svitolina has record 3-0 against Wozniacki but I don;t know whether she will have the training practice to beat Wozniacki. 

So my prediction for the final is Wozniacki vs Halep.

I think to bet on below ladies to win Beijing with the same amount:
Halep @ 5.50
Wozniacki @ 8.50
Svitolina @ 5.50

Good Luck!

I hate to write predictions (obviously from my previous posts) but here some for tomorrow  
Singles:
Svitolina -4.5 games against Vesnina @1.83
Svitolina is in top 3 players this year with 48-11 win-loss record (or 81.4 winning %), while Vesnina is with 22-20 (or 52.4 winning %).
To continue Svitolina won 49.4% return points which make her top1 for 2017 calendar, while Vesnina is in 23rd place with 44.9%. As additional Svitolina is top2 with 54.4% total points won after Serena and before Pliskova.
Svitolina has one month time to recover and train after US Open and this is her first tournament since then. She was very solid versus Barty and I'm pretty sure that she could win this more easily if she wanted.
On other hand Vesnina is a mid-range player, she had some difficulties against 99th in the World Duan Y. and she was broke two times in an easy game. She is not a consistent player.
Svitolina drop one service game against Barty, but Barty for me is one of the future top10 players, otherwise, the result might be different.
Prediction: Easy win for Svitolina and to control the match.
J.Ostapenko to beat S.Peng @1.53
Yes, Peng has the home advantage but this doesn't make her winner here. Peng is a very inconsistent player, and if you watched her against Niculescu from 19 games 11 were breaks...
Ostapenko is young and hungry for victories, less experienced but she has the talent to be number1 if she continues to learn and practice more on some aspects (1st serve, 2nd serve, unforced errors and sometimes to be more patience). 
Since US Open Peng has 4 wins and 2 loses, only one of the wins was unexpected from me - against Kvitova but Kvitova after the injury is still searching her rhythm. While Ostapenko is unstoppable, only 1 loss against Barty (future top 10 player :)).
I won't give and percentages here because these two players are very inconsistent in their performance, however, I believe Ostapenko will take this match.
Prediction: Match with a lot of unforced errors, and hopefully Ostapenko will do less
 
Wozniacki to beat Kvitova @1.66
Wozniacki has 43-11 win-loss or 80% winning matches, while Kvitova is with 17-9 or 65%. A lot of statistic for these players but it won't help because Kvitova is still trying to find her best form after the injury.
Kvitova played 6 tournaments after grass over and she had a very good strike on US Open but only this, on all other matches she was very inconsistent and losses from average players. She had to work a lot to beat Kristina Pliskova and Lepchenko which means she is not her best form.
Now for Wozniacki, she played 3 finals and won only one, besides the lost from Sakkari (who played very well this match). Wozniacki is having a very good winning strike. Currently, I think she and Svitolina are on top form at the moment.
Prediction: Tough match for Wozniacki but in my opinion, she will win this one.

A.Cornet - C.Garcia : over21.5 games @1.83
2-way match... both are in very good form, both have a very good winning strike but only one will win this match.
Carcia is on top of her form since US Open and has only one loss against Muguruza. She won Wuhan Open and I guess she will be a little tired despite she started from the 2nd round. Her victories are not against top players but currently, she is consistent and playing good tennis.
Cornet impressed me with her tennis lately and she also is on good strike with two losses since US Open. For me, she is an unpredictable player, one game she is playing really good on the next her unforced errors give the opponent a good advantage and she losing. 
Prediction: Tough game to predict but I think both will fight to proceed further in the next round.

B.Strycova to beat D.Gavrilova @1.83 (Risky)
Didn't have the chance to watch their last games, but Strycova is very experienced and strategic player, she knows how to win matches. I just checked their last meeting on August and saw a lot of breaks.
The percentages of 1st and 2nd serve, return points, etc were almost equal.
Prediction: My two cents on the more experienced player.
Accumulator:
Svitolina to beat Vesnina @1.28
Ostapenko to beat Peng @1.53
Corne vs Garcia : over 8.5 games in 1st set @1.36
Strycova vs Gavrilova: over 7.5 games in 1st set @1.12
==========================================================
Odd: 2.98