DanV89

Very good card at the Curragh to start the flat season. First two races I've nothing but in the 3.15 I think Shanghai Beauty is a good bet. Had a good 2 year old campaign which probably got her a poor mark but she gradually improved throughout the year culminating in a good 3rd on her handicap debut. She's been dropped 4lbs for that surprisingly, will love the ground and Condon has his runners pretty straight first time out so 14/1 looks good. Laganore was really impressive at Leopardstown but might need this and drops down 2f in trip which doesn't look ideal. Another horse from that race Club Wexford is interesting. He lost 8L at the start but stayed on strongly and was beaten just over 3L in the end. Generously dropped 5lbs he looks on a good mark but again the drop 2f in trip doesn't look ideal.

In the 3.50 we've got a competitive looking Group 3. Devonshire sets the standard but I think she might be exposed to more improving types. Queen Catrine is also quite smart but I reckon the ground will be too slow for her. Joailliere went off 10/1 in the 1000 Guineas on her 2nd start and the ground is ideal but she's got to step up on that and isn't much of a price although she's drifting this morning. Fluff can be taken on first time out for O'Brien so I like Glamorous Approach at 7/1. This one won a Listed race last time at Newmarket over 10f and has been talked up as an Oaks filly. She drops to a mile here but I remember Aidan saying soft ground at the Curragh is more like 10f which might be a bit of an exaggeration but it is certainly a stiff test of stamina. Bolger has his string ready first time out and has two others in here who will hopefully set a nice gallop.

The 4.25 is a cracking handicap. Awtaad won a good looking maiden but he beat a first time out O'Brien horse who may have needed it and is short enough in a good race when he might come on for the run. Theodorico has classic entries and Bolger says he didn't like the cheekpieces last time when he narrowly won a handicap at Leopardstown. He was smashed in that day and is interesting but I just preferred Weld's Party Angel. She only won a Dundalk maiden last time but it has worked out well and she looks like she could be better than 76. We all know about Weld this time of year and 12/1 looks decent.

In the Lincoln I like Onenightidreamed. Won this last year and improved again to win a Group 3. Probably not the best Group 3 and a bit concerning that he was only seen twice last year as a 4 year old but his trainer says he has to have it soft which might be the reason. He's still progressive and is 3 wins from 5 so looks a good play at a double figure price.

The last maiden is another cracking race but the Weld horse looks short enough with some really promising types behind him in the betting.
Selections:
3.15 - Shanghai Beauty @ 14/1 William Hill
3.50 - Glamorous Approach @ 7/1 William Hill
4.25 - Party Angel @ 14/1 Betvictor
4.55 - Onenightidreamed e/w @ 11/1 Betvictor

Over the festival how many times will the name ''Victoria Pendleton'' be said  
Should just change it to The V,P Festival 

This gets me angry !!!.....bookies are doing this more and more ....banning or restricting anyone that remotely is winning ...its getting to the stage you will only be able to put a bet on if you are a consistent loser ...,.how can that be right ??.....surely the government should look at it and if bookies aren't prepared to accept some punters win ...accept that and take it on the chin or get out the game ,!!!.....,I have to constantly cycle my bets at diff bookies and if I can get the price at my local bookies I'll go in and pay cash ....luckily I have a big Mic of wins and losses and they are spread around and I back big prices so they seem to ignore me ....,so far ....but stories like this are coming common place ..,its not fair and just makes you wanna take them to the cleaners ....Fukin leeches 
In fact I'm so angry I'm e-mailing the minister .....not that I'll get anywhere but if its constantly raised maybe they'll lookat it one day ...lol

I wouldn't give them any more business merely because of 'our approach to how we administrate our accounts'
Surely it should be 'administer our accounts'
hooligans
 
 
 
 
 

They should bring in handicap chase sprints
Five furlongs, four fences, 20 runner fields..........sponsored by bookies to ensure 5 non runners
Lady jockeys only..........err, in bikinis
Whips with flashing lights
Races 15 minutes apart with cartoons between times
That should get the soccer crowd watching.........
 

Yeah, I watched it.........but it wasn't that good
Bob Cooper seems to suck the life out of the Forum whenever he does it and Gaye Kellaway wouldn't shut up !

 

6.35 DUNDALK
RUSSIAN SOUL @ 9/1 Paddy Power
If this one is race fit it must have a fantastic chance today.  It's the first time he's dropped to a make in double figures since November 2012.  Its not like his form has dropped too much, only two runs back he was beaten only 1 1/2L off 105.
Should reverse places with Togoville and Have a Nice Day on there August running and drawn ok in 6.

Plumpton 2.00 - Aramadyh - ew at 50/1 bog PP
Mares novice hurdle
Looks a very poor race with an odds on favourite who has shown inconsistent form and is giving a stone and more to all the other runners.
My selection is an outsider but has shown glimpses of form such as a win and place on the flat......was rated 70
Ran in her first hurdle here a couple of weeks ago after 18 months off the track and was running 4th until three out when she faded and was pulled up. I'm banking on her coming on a bit from that run and this being a much easier race.

Yeah , i heard about this the other day and thought it was bad news for the racing public. Every channel that goes to Racing UK will be leaving the biggest audience. I'm not that bothered about Leicester as the track is in dire need of something, the course is in awful condition. I like Stratford, used to work there for WH at 17 meetings per year.
The point is that Racing needs everyone pulling in the same direction and this Racing UK v ATR causes a divide and it seems to me that every single department in the sport is working against each other.
Whether you willing to pay the monthly fee or not is not the point, its another decision thats been made that is not in the best interest of the normal punter.

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2016/feb/03/jeremy-kyle-horse-racing-itv-coverage-rights
I quite like the thought of kyle doing lie detectors on jockeys as they finish races tbh ....were you trying your best there 50 lengths down on the fav ?? (BBEEEEEEPPPPP)....FECK 

id like to try something diff today .......call it a lesson in hcapping ....ive had a few ideas for a while and would like to share them on here and you can 
criticise and pick holes to your hearts content but im hoping in doing so maybe we can come up with a handicapping formula that can be used to win us a few quid ....
ill start the ball rolling and lets see how it progresses .....
firstly you want to work out what the horse is currently doing ......every horse has a current "number " over it which varies but each horse has a current ability number and i like to establish this as follows ......lets take a race today 245 southwell and pick it apart 
horse 1    indira    off rated 70 has finished 3 lengths down both last 2 races so  ill rate him as  current abilty    64 
horse 2   with hindsight  also  finished 3 lengths down off 70 so lets give him  also  64 
horse 3  dark diamond  won well off 60 was raised to 68 finished no where so ill rate him as good at 60
horse 4   weald of kent  won easily off 64   raised to 70  based on that last run youd have to say his ability is around 70
horse 5  thimaar   6 lengths down off 72  rate him around the 60
horses 6 and 7 are very poor so for todays test we will omit them .....
now we have an ability rough rating ...................now we want to know what the horse might be capable of under todays conditions ....there are numerous methods for this but lets for arguments and ease sake combine the rp and speed ratings .......lots of work has gone into them so may as well use 
horse 1     64   137     201
horse 2  64    147   211
horse 3   60   137   197
horse 4  70   125      195 
horse 5   60   130     190
 
so weve ruled out horses 6 and 7 .....looking at thr ratings it seems logical to rule out horse 5 as hes done nothing off this mark and isnt well weighted that leaves 4 
weald of kent is fav and showed vastly superior form over cd last time but before that had shown nothing off this mark ......could be that penny has finally dropped and good course form a def plus but time for that race lto was poor suggesting it was nothing special so im going to take him on today 
horse 3 dark diamond  won well off 61 but ran appalling off 68 suggesting the hcapper nailed him so off 67 today he looks very weak from a betting view 
so overall the two to focus on look to be the top two horses number 1 and number two 
number 2 with hindsight has the highest figure on 211 overall probably due to fact he has course form too ......looks a few lbs high but against weak opposition and with course form he looks dangerous .......number 1 indira has been running pretty consistently of late running a 64 lto but has been as high as 69 off this mark ...crucially is ridden by a 5lb claimer today so offically runs of 65 today and thats a big advantage but no course form only kempton and wolv 
quick look at betting has horse 4 as 5/2 fav .....if you believe that last run then yes he looks fairly strong today ......but weak time and poor form in past suggest lots more needed today 
horses 1 and 2 are avilable at 4/1 and 10/1 !!!.........so lets roll the dice and see what happens 
indira  2 pts win  10/1  stj
with hindsight  2 pts win 4/1 paddyp
 

annililated them .....but it was always on the cards off a weight like that

12.40 Sou - Fujin - win at 13/8 bog bet365
6f handicap
pretty poor level handicap and looks to be between the two fairly recent CD winners. Fujin and Fortinbrass
the two met on the same terms in December and my selection won fairly convincingly. The Post suggests that Fortin brass might turn the tables today but I'm not so sure !
Fortinbrass had been tumbling down the weights by 28lbs since his previous handicap win before winning 2 runs ago but has now gone back up 6lbs and that isn't a profile I like.
My selection has had fewer outings and is still going up the ratings. Was only beaten a quarter length off todays mark last time having just been headed on the line after attempting to make all. I think this track today suits front runners better so I'm hopeful he'll make all and keep on to the line
 
 

This game can be sexy as feck at times 

To Quote BH ................. Its a lazy society we live in and it won't get any better anytime soon
Very True fella.
The Kids are getting obese, and this years big xmas demand gift was ?

I've never understood the connection between fashion and racing, i mean name another sport where they connect the two ?
Jim McGrath i find utterly boring and most of the others are blurting out stats and facts ''AFTER'' the race via an earpiece device, Simon Holt has always been the Daddy at calling any race and has natural passion, he would be a massive loss.
A racing show should be kept as racing, for racing fans, not 60% racing and 40% about Vivienne Westwood.

Well done again Richard!! Will be hoping for more of the same tomorrow 

Baron alco bravely lasts home  ....cracker ....wetherby called off ....other one was second ....nice day 35 pts profit overall .  .....actually its 40 pts cos just realised churchfield was non runner too 

It's Christmas Dan, I'm not a monster 

The Stars of the Future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PA9_8buLvk

Free Eagle was disappointing but Esoterique just missed out on the places and Dariyan ran well to finish third. He got outpaced for a bit down the back and when he was making his challenge had to check left costing momentum yet only finished a length and a half behind Flintshire without Soumillon asking too much of him in the final furlong. He saw the track for the first time in April and looks like the typical French type to improve again at 4. He's a horse to follow next year I think.

The computer condenses speed ratings class and makes a hcap up .....then converts the combined rating to a figure as close to a 100 as it can .....although the figures seem close about .5 equates to about 2lbs or a length so in the above vullage vic was being equated as 1 length superior to tenor nivernais even though the ratings look close .... it just helps having them closer ......this race was particuly close though ...five of the top rated finished first seven home ....thats how close it was ..!!
In the above race the hcap and speed ratings were average to good for village vic but todays weight meant he could potentially improve somewhere between 13 -21 lbs and he actually improved around 17 lbs by the looks of it ..so smack in the middle .....his ratings were based on carrying in the 11st plus catergory and he was carrying 10 st so he wss dropping around somethin like 17 lbs .....even though he was effectively up 7 lbs in hcap the horse itself was just thinking feck me I feel light today .....??....the computer will spot that I probably wouldnt ..lol

15 pts carried over from earlier  in week ... ill top it up to 20 pts and try for a double up on top 3 rated ...big open race but worth a shot 
Annacotty  8 pts win 9.5 betfair
Village vic 6.5 pts win 10/1 corals
Tenor nivernais 5.5 pts win 12/1 willh
 

Excellent aim wins nicely ...and jockey her first win ....nicely done