Johnmccain
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Posts posted by Johnmccain
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Chesham late goal saves the day!
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Every single one of my bets ended in a draw this Saturday... definitely could have been better. Good for my team, Sheffield United, but bad for my wallet
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30 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Sunderland vs Shrewsbury
One team that have delivered on the betting front more often than not this season is League One title contenders Sunderland. That's why I'm covering them in the second preview in this thread this week in their home game at the Stadium of Light against struggling Shrewsbury in this 3pm kick-off tomorrow afternoon.
Sunderland have endured their fair share of hard times. This season has probably been a field of dreams for the Black Cats as their team has competed at the top end of a league table for the first time since the 2006/07 when they won the Championship title. Jack Ross has seen his team hit the peak of the table but a defeat a couple of games ago has seen them drop to 3rd but they still have 2 games in hand on the teams above them.
Shrewsbury are in a state of trouble after the departure of Paul Hurst. Hurst has been sacked as Ipswich manager but the Shrews have opted to replace John Askey with former Wrexham manager Sam Ricketts. It's a bold move and so far Ricketts has only won 1 of his 4 league games. Progress could well have to wait until the January transfer window opens.
In this game, it's hard to see past a home win. The only issue is that Sunderland have failed to win at home when heavy favourites on four previous occasions. It seems complacency is an issue. Hopefully, that won't be the case here. It might not be an easy win but the Black Cats should take all three points. If not, they only have themselves to blame.
Sunderland to Win @ 1.90 with BetVictor
Sunderland HT/FT @ 2.95 with Sportingbet
I have no idea how Barnsley at home to a decent Charlton side can be shorter than Sunderland at home to Shrewsbury who are much further down the table. I was considering Sunderland a decent bet, but League 1 is so unpredictable right now. Who would have thought Gillingham would beat Portsmouth on Boxing Day? It's a tough one to call, but no doubt I'd say Sunderland are more or less value at home to any team in the division at evens or less.
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Only real value I see is in the Championship this weekend!
Birmingham vs. Brentford
I think Birmingham have been outstanding of late and comfortably beating Stoke was no mean feat. Stoke have become extremely difficult to break down, and to be honest I think the bookies are overestimating Brentford. Despite the good squad, I am not sure the new manager was the best appointment. One could argue they've turned a corner of late but I don't think a win against lowly Bolton or a draw against another misfiring team in Bristol City can amount to that. I would be tempted to take Birmingham with a -1 handicap but instead I'm just going for the straight win at just over evens.
Preston vs. Aston Villa
Preston are a team that consistently overachieve and, much like my team Sheffield United, have a squad full of players that the divisions top teams' fans would not consider to be top Championship players like their own. I am a huge fan of Callum Robinson, but he has been out since November and I think Preston have suffered, and I just think Aston Villa will be able to outscore them. If I was pushed I would opt for Villa to win and over 3.5 goals, but instead I will just go with the Villa win at just over evens again.
Bolton vs. Stoke
We all know that Bolton are going through some issues right now, and after their great start to the season they are truly in a relegation dogfight. Honestly, I expect them to go down as the bottom team. I don't think they will have much transfer activity this January and, if anything, they will lose players rather than gain them. Stoke will look to bounce back after losing to Birmingham and being comfortably beaten, and I expect Rowett to instill to them a must-win mentality in this game. They have gotten in to a habit of drawing their away games and winning home games recently, but I have them to win this one at just under evens.
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Only real value I see is in the Championship this weekend!
But I will back Luton in League One.
Walsall vs. Luton
I think Luton are short to win this, but they are consistently winning and I think they are on a trajectory to take top spot in League One. I didn't see it coming, and as a punter have often overlooked them as their odds are always short, but now I am starting to see why the bookies consider them so backable. Walsall are on a poor run of form, particularly in the last game losing at home to a lowly Bristol Rovers side 1 - 3. I fancy Luton to keep with winning ways at around 1.80.
I am backing each team in singles bets and also going for the following doubles:
Birmingham / Aston Villa at around 5.0
Stoke / Luton at around 3.7
Good luck all!
- allyhibs and StevieDay1983
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20 minutes left and got to say a top day of tipping there Darran!
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Hey Darran, what do you reckon to a potential upset at Barrow by Halifax in the trophy? Barrow been going well recently but they have just lost their top scorer in loanee Ty Smith going back to Sheffield United. We saw last week that Halifax can be difficult to grind down as was the case at Dagenham. Their league positions aren't miles apart and the odds of up to 4/1 on Halifax look too high to me.
Also Solihull away at Southport. Both have midweek FA cup replays that they'll want to prioritise, but crucially the Southport game is on Monday whilst Solihull is on Tuesday. Think Solihull might have a bit better squad depth, so just over evens seems to be value for a game that Southport will surely rest the majority of first-teamers.
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Unfortunate as Casuals certainly didn't look too bad from what the stats suggested. Probably needed more end product.
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Great tipping Darran
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Rochdale, Cambridge and Grimsby look appealing at the prices. Rochdale better at home but who knows how Shrewsbury will play - could go wither way. Cambridge turning a corner and beat Colchester midweek, so they have some fight. Grimsby the same beating MK Dons comfortably and should have too much for a poor Crawley side.
- StevieDay1983 and Papa Lazarou
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I'm going to take on Oxford City against Chippenham Town. Betting on Chippenham can be a bit risky, as this season they have produced some really hit-and-miss results, but I think there is value in their price tonight. Oxford's recent results don't look all that bad if you consider their last 5, in which they are 3-1-1 with comfortable wins over Dartford and Hemel thrown in there, but 2 of those victories and a draw were in the Cup. Their league form is poor and reads 1-0-4. I was interested to see how they would do after their good results in the cup in Saturday's game against a decent-at-best Chelmsford side, but after going 1 up they ended up losing 1 - 3.
Chippenham are clearly capable of getting results. They've recently won away at Torquay and just before that they beat Billericay, so we know they can show up on their day. Their home form is better than their away form but I still think they should probably be considered as favourites in this one.
I'm happy to take 6/4 out here with the Spanish William Hill.
Chippenham Town to win 6/4
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I quite like the look of Bognor Regis Town against Kingstonian in the Isthmian Prem.
The odds for Bognor are below evens and deservedly so, but at between 4/5 and 5/6 I think there's value in there.
Bognor are unbeaten, and averaging over 2 goals per game up to now. Their 2 home games so far this season have ended 3 - 0 and 3 - 1, and Kingstonian haven't managed to score more than a goal a game since the first game of the season, which they also lost.
I don't have many markets to choose from here in Spain other than H2H markets, and I'm happy to take 4/5 with William Hill.
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Hey Darran, any tips regarding the Isthmian Prem? Whitehawk's amazing revival that was unfortunately in vain doesn't seem to have transferred over this season. Haven't seen you tip up anything this season yet! Just wondering if you still had your finger on the pulse?
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Great tipping
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Think I'm going to stick to my day job...
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As always great write ups Darran
I like a couple of games this weekend:
Wealdstone vs. Bath
Wealdstone seem to be coasting a little bit, and have quite a few fixtures to pack in before the end of the season. Bath have an outside chance of reaching the playoffs, albeit an outside one as they have played a game more than those around them and are still chasing. Still, I think that belief and some good recent results, including a hammering of Gloucester and respectable draw away at Hemel, make them a decent shout. I'm happy to take them as slight favourites at 2.5 on Sportium.
Blyth vs. Kidderminster
Blyth's form in the last 4 matches has been to lose all 4, and this is reflected in their odds. However, they have quite a good form at home, and I am willing to take them to beat Kidderminster. A victory would be the third win in a row for them at home, despite not playing a home game at all since February. Kiddy are also no great shakes, and their current form suggests they could easily score 1 or 2 goals here. They look comfortable to make the playoffs though, and this does not seem to be a must-win game for them, whilst Blyth's slim playoff chances really hang on this game. I'm willing to take that risk and go for a home win at 3.2 with Sportium.
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2 minutes ago, lee.bee said:
Stalybridge played Tuesday and drew 2 2 with Ashton
Thanks for that info. That certainly makes a difference... I'm happy to take the bet on but perhaps with a little less stake. 2 - 2 with Ashton certainly isn't a terrible result, but Ashton have also recently drawn with Mickleover 1 - 1. I'm not particularly bothered about the potential home advantage. Mickleover have played at home once in the last 7 matches. I think it's a gamble but I think Stalybridge should be slight favourites with current form.
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Stalybridge seem to have been in fabulous form, away at a Mickleover team who aren't pulling up any trees. Stalybridge also haven't played in over a week, where they lost to a really in-form Grantham. Looks decent value to take a punt on Stalybridge for me. Spanish Will Hill gives me 2.8
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1 hour ago, Darran said:
Going to have a look at this weekends matches later, but Orient might well be a bet. I took on Maidenhead on Saturday because I thought they had nothing to play for and looked like the had eased up only for them to get a deserved point at Ebbsfleet. They do have the capability of making it tricky for Sutton.
I hope so. I took on your Macclesfield ante-post bet quite a few months ago
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13 hours ago, the bastardian said:
Folkestone 107.....01 and Altrincham 1,60 is a disaster after 10
I hope you didn't cash out...
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Odds already dropped to around 6/4. Seems as though Betfair and Marathon still offering best odds at 31/20. Betdaq as low as 5/4 on Shots win
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Great work there Darran
Non-League Predictions > January 5th
in Non League Predictions
Posted · Edited by Johnmccain
Addition
St. Neots are on a terrible run so I can't quite work out how a reasonably performing Royston Town are 13/10 to win away there on Saturday? Perhaps I'm missing something?
Thanks for the tips as always Darran
Also I like the look of free-scoring Wimborne to win away against Frome at around 6/4