Grass Cash

I really think Francis Tiafoe has a very good chance to beat Nadal. The man is ridiculously strong, and I think working with Wayne Ferreria has helped him a lot. Now it is just a question of belief. I think he may fall just short, but should take a set, which probably wins you the +6.5 handciap bet.
For the rest, I think the card is brutal today. Just one to watch and maybe take an in play bet.
I think Karolina Pliskova is going to beat Azarenka. My big indicator is just how well she did in the Canadian open, beating Kejcikova, Anismova, Sakkari. I think the 1st strike, power tennis, is not an opponent style that suites Azarenka. She may get blown off the court in a stop-start no rhythm type match. Azarenka also has not played that much, cancelled in Canada, Lost 2nd match in Cinicinnati and then against 3 weak opponents that really suited her style in US open.

I agree with what you said about Muguruza.. this is why I only put a .25 unit on that.. I am still considering Niemaier because I think I have found something in that match.. It's just hard to go against Czech Punter advice, and also as for betting.. I'd say Musetti is a safer bet than Muguruza.. I was just diversifying my bets. 

Great writeups @money44 and @CzechPunter and I am following your excellent advice and tips all the way.
The only concern I have with the Murguruza vs Kvitova match is that Kvitova has beaten Murguruza the last 5 times they have played each other. Admittedly the last occasion was in 2021 and we are getting the outsider odds on Murguruza after all. I just can't help feel that is quite a dominant head to head record against a player. So fingers crossed Garbine can seize the day and banish that Kvitova dominance.

Yeah .. I just talked myself out of betting heavy on that.. Here will be my card for tomorrow. I am seeing a good potential amount of dogs winning tomorrow.. I already mentioned the German as an option which I still like alot at the current price. and then players like Brandon Nakashima, Burel would not suprise me either.. It's just not something I feel very comfortable with. Martic in some fine form winning in Switzerland.. she's found a comfort in her game at the net. Continue to roll with Pliskova, and I think Bencic is not 100% motivated with injury problems. Musetti we discussed already, and Garbine Muguruza is playing good tennis finally.. Her footwork is fantastic, and she's fighting.. I like this one alot, and it's really more of a gift because of how many times Kvitova has dissapointed as a favorite. Right along side Garbine, but for this match.. You'll want to be on Muguruza side because I have this match lined as a pk em odds for both players.
William Hill
Muguruza +160 .25 unit 
Musetti +170 .25 unit
Karolina Pliskova +100 .25 unit
Martic +170 .25 unit 

Yeah .. I just talked myself out of betting heavy on that.. Here will be my card for tomorrow. I am seeing a good potential amount of dogs winning tomorrow.. I already mentioned the German as an option which I still like alot at the current price. and then players like Brandon Nakashima, Burel would not suprise me either.. It's just not something I feel very comfortable with. Martic in some fine form winning in Switzerland.. she's found a comfort in her game at the net. Continue to roll with Pliskova, and I think Bencic is not 100% motivated with injury problems. Musetti we discussed already, and Garbine Muguruza is playing good tennis finally.. Her footwork is fantastic, and she's fighting.. I like this one alot, and it's really more of a gift because of how many times Kvitova has dissapointed as a favorite. Right along side Garbine, but for this match.. You'll want to be on Muguruza side because I have this match lined as a pk em odds for both players.
William Hill
Muguruza +160 .25 unit 
Musetti +170 .25 unit
Karolina Pliskova +100 .25 unit
Martic +170 .25 unit 

Yeah .. I just talked myself out of betting heavy on that.. Here will be my card for tomorrow. I am seeing a good potential amount of dogs winning tomorrow.. I already mentioned the German as an option which I still like alot at the current price. and then players like Brandon Nakashima, Burel would not suprise me either.. It's just not something I feel very comfortable with. Martic in some fine form winning in Switzerland.. she's found a comfort in her game at the net. Continue to roll with Pliskova, and I think Bencic is not 100% motivated with injury problems. Musetti we discussed already, and Garbine Muguruza is playing good tennis finally.. Her footwork is fantastic, and she's fighting.. I like this one alot, and it's really more of a gift because of how many times Kvitova has dissapointed as a favorite. Right along side Garbine, but for this match.. You'll want to be on Muguruza side because I have this match lined as a pk em odds for both players.
William Hill
Muguruza +160 .25 unit 
Musetti +170 .25 unit
Karolina Pliskova +100 .25 unit
Martic +170 .25 unit 

Yeah .. I just talked myself out of betting heavy on that.. Here will be my card for tomorrow. I am seeing a good potential amount of dogs winning tomorrow.. I already mentioned the German as an option which I still like alot at the current price. and then players like Brandon Nakashima, Burel would not suprise me either.. It's just not something I feel very comfortable with. Martic in some fine form winning in Switzerland.. she's found a comfort in her game at the net. Continue to roll with Pliskova, and I think Bencic is not 100% motivated with injury problems. Musetti we discussed already, and Garbine Muguruza is playing good tennis finally.. Her footwork is fantastic, and she's fighting.. I like this one alot, and it's really more of a gift because of how many times Kvitova has dissapointed as a favorite. Right along side Garbine, but for this match.. You'll want to be on Muguruza side because I have this match lined as a pk em odds for both players.
William Hill
Muguruza +160 .25 unit 
Musetti +170 .25 unit
Karolina Pliskova +100 .25 unit
Martic +170 .25 unit 

I was against Niemeier, and she was coming into the event with some bad form book, but she's proven me wrong by getting two nice wins. That said, I think Zheng is more talented and she was good in the lead-up events as well, now beating Ostapenko and Potapova back to back, who are both better than Niemeier on paper one has to say. There will be some serious ball hitting here, but worth a note that Zheng destroyed her 6-4 6-0 in Melbourne at the start of the season as part of her good start to the year. I would actually play Zheng here rather than back Niemeier, don't think she'll live with the firepower well.

It's a ghost town in here right now CP. Surprised there's not more involvement.. I think there is a great betting card ahead today, and I have a hot take.. Wanted to get your opinion real quick. I personally think Niemeier is gonna destroy Zheng tomorrow.. I do believe Zheng is a massive talent for China, but this Niemeier girl is no pushover.. I don't think Zheng's return of serve is good enough, and her movement looks a little shaky to me as well.. I picked and bet both of these girls and won on them in their last match. I didnt' watch the matches because they were some parlay bets that I had, but i watching the replays now, and it didn't take me long to figure out which side I was on.. I don't understand why the public is so heavily on Qinwen. You will probably say this an underdog or pass situation again, but if you can give any additional insight into the match.. would be greatly appreciated. 

Musetti over Ivashka at 2.50 with William Hill
Burel (+1.5 sets) over Sabalenka at 2.45 with Unibet
I like these odds quite a lot. Musetii I fully agree with @money44, and I think he shouldn't be over 2.20 or so. Burel is on a superb run and Sabalenka was shaky against Kanepi and always has those odd sets, so the price looks too high to me. She has also already beaten two players that prefer strength over everything else, so that has been some good preparation surely.

I'm not gonna do it.. went back, and looked at Pegula.. Pegula seems to be in form.. So I can't pull the trigger on it at all. 
My best look at the comment is Cachin +250, it will probably close as my favorite bet for tomorrow. 
He's been playing good.. I know they have been tough matches, but he seems to have the legs for it, and played conservatively.. tough competitors in my opinion for hard courts at the US open, and have noticed the Moutet has bandage on his knee, and last week tape all over his serving arm. So it's possible Moutet retires, but my book won't pay that.. if he finishes tho.. I am seeing this match as a complete coinflip in my eyes. I've got his chances rated at 50%.  Also Cachin's game seems to translate to hard courters much better than other South Americans.. seems to be more of a control oriented style that can deal with pace, and has a good serve. 

I'm like the edge of Musetti eventually outplaying Ivashka after perhaps a slow start, so a good candidate for live betting.

The way I'm seeing it.. Musetti is the more talented player, and I think most would agree on that.. He's getting more support almost certainly. His last match he's moving well and playing confidently but vs lower level competition. He's already beaten Goffin in the first round which i'm not sure how great that is, but I do think Goffin would be favored to win here. I'm a believer that he can win matches on hard court..  so I'd say that I really like the odds where they sit at the moment, but it might be something to try in play as well. I believe he'll fight, and give us a solid chance to cash.. but no bets places on anything yet. 

Why back someone you're completely unfamiliar with?

I see it more as an appreciation of the value you're bringing to the discussion. Definitely wouldn't back Moutet at that price, another one of those you either side with the underdog or don't bet cases for me.

I am not impressed with Van De Zandschulp either or current form.. He got bageled and straight sets by Mannarino recently. I don't think Botic baseline game is good enough to hang with alot of players, and then beating Wawrinka for me doesn't mean all that right now. I have no idea what's going with Stan, but he is not performing well(serving, moving, backhand) confidence level. So, this doesn't mean all much either especially when u consider Moutet could just target his backhand, and Stan clearly was hurt and retired.

I'm not gonna do it.. went back, and looked at Pegula.. Pegula seems to be in form.. So I can't pull the trigger on it at all. 
My best look at the comment is Cachin +250, it will probably close as my favorite bet for tomorrow. 
He's been playing good.. I know they have been tough matches, but he seems to have the legs for it, and played conservatively.. tough competitors in my opinion for hard courts at the US open, and have noticed the Moutet has bandage on his knee, and last week tape all over his serving arm. So it's possible Moutet retires, but my book won't pay that.. if he finishes tho.. I am seeing this match as a complete coinflip in my eyes. I've got his chances rated at 50%.  Also Cachin's game seems to translate to hard courters much better than other South Americans.. seems to be more of a control oriented style that can deal with pace, and has a good serve. 

J. J. Wolf (+2.5 sets) over Nick Kyrgios at 2.09 with Pinnacle
I think Nick might be in for a long evening here, Wolf has already upset Bautista here and he seems to be playing fairly well at the moment, big motivation as well on home ground. Nick dropped his focus against Bonzi for a short while, too, and he might drop it here again. Not sure why this is above 2.00, probably something like 1.83 would look fair to me.
Garbine Muguruza over Linda Fruhvirtova at 1.53 with William Hill
Not sure Fruhvirtova is there yet. Big talent, but still plenty of odd losses this year and her serve is still a liability in this kind of conditions. Expect Muguruza to have a field day with her second serves.
Clara Burel over Alison Van Uytvanck at 2.20 with Unibet
Burel's Rybakina win wasn't perhaps as shocking, she has gone through the qualifying rounds well, after all. Her form book is better than Alison's, and her mobility could trouble her opponent as well. Different sort of a match-up than Venus Williams, who's a lot like AVu in many regards.

Pliskova feels like a complete coin-flip to me, hard to say what will go on in such a derby.

One thing I will say. Serena played extremely well two nights ago, and especially serving the ball huge. It wasn't a perfect match for her, but she is definitely in some kind of form.. This doesn't seem to be the hampered Williams that can dump a match to any player on tour.. This is massive serving Serena, and timing the ball well from the baseline. I give her a 40% chance and I think that's extremely fair considering how easily she ran through her opening match. I believe she can outserve Kontaveit to win
Serena Williams +200 .5 unit
 

I love when people post picks win or lose.. atleast they are making an effort to cooperate.. We can make our own decisions about whether or not to take that action.

One thing I will say. Serena played extremely well two nights ago, and especially serving the ball huge. It wasn't a perfect match for her, but she is definitely in some kind of form.. This doesn't seem to be the hampered Williams that can dump a match to any player on tour.. This is massive serving Serena, and timing the ball well from the baseline. I give her a 40% chance and I think that's extremely fair considering how easily she ran through her opening match. I believe she can outserve Kontaveit to win
Serena Williams +200 .5 unit
 

One thing I will say. Serena played extremely well two nights ago, and especially serving the ball huge. It wasn't a perfect match for her, but she is definitely in some kind of form.. This doesn't seem to be the hampered Williams that can dump a match to any player on tour.. This is massive serving Serena, and timing the ball well from the baseline. I give her a 40% chance and I think that's extremely fair considering how easily she ran through her opening match. I believe she can outserve Kontaveit to win
Serena Williams +200 .5 unit
 

If I had to take two long shots today I have to go with Jack Draper to beat Auger Aliassime. I like Draper, and the left hander should give his opponent problems. For me Flelix has got a lot stronger, but the game (strokes/style/ability to figure out things during match) has not improving much (but he still a great player). I just like the 20 year who has a shot to nothing, and that is where players play their best.
The second one would be Daria Snigur to beat Rebecca Marino. Snigur beat Halep and it was no fluke. 2nd set she got blitzed but came back and won the 3rd after a scare (was 5-1 up, then back to 5-4 and 0-30).  She showed some mental fortitude there, and I think she will only get stronger. For me 2.5 is a solid price.
Will take a small 1 unit bet on the double which comes in around 7.7 to 1 . Draper does start at 2am so impossible to watch, and I will not commit big money to something I will sleep through.

Been working like a dog, so not much time for analysis and tennis betting. Missed some serious upsets in the first two days. Lots of upsets. Not particularly hot in NY today. 27 and 54% humidity is quite reasonable. 
For me I think Tommy Paul may just not have enough in the tank after a 5 setter, to beat Korda.  Probably 1st set here is important, and I'll go with whoever wins it, with an in play bet.
I do like a medium sized bet on  low odds favorites.
Andy Murray to beat Emilio Nava
Casper Ruud to beat van Rijthoven
Khachanov  to beat Thiago Monteiro
Jabeur to beat  Mandlik
Sakkari to beat Xiyu Wang
Two in play now, gives odds of 1.17 and I'll take a 4 unit bet there.