anaconda69

Yep, the topic has difted a bit.
I sometimes back horses that haven't won over the course or distance because they tend to be overbet.
I must admit I haven't really found a way to quantify the pace angle of a race but I agree it is often key. I think front runners have a good record so I suppose if you can find a race with one front runner in it that might be an angle.

Did you see how fast the horse picked up when the space came ...another 20 yards and he's have had them ....jeez 

I have 6f as draw 1-9 best myself for a larger race 

I have 6f as draw 1-9 best myself for a larger race 

I have 6f as draw 1-9 best myself for a larger race 

I have 6f as draw 1-9 best myself for a larger race 

AW selection
Kempton 6.30
BLENHEIM STAR

Light weights do very well in handicaps at Chester
Horses carrying 8st 7lbs to 8st 11lbs have 109 wins from 915 runs with a profit of 169 points

As expected the money is piling on the lower draws .....it might be  a lesson that it's pointless to look outside the bottom 5 draws but I'm constantly getting my ass kicked by ignoring the computer ratings outside the favoured draws then they "find " a way through .....it's really annoying especially at like 20/1 .....so I have to go with it now .....auric is a speculative bet ....I think he needs fast side of good which he has .....he's only had 3 runs so is open to improvement and the connections usually target this meeting as they like to come and have fun here ....so the rest is just down to the racing gods .....but good luck all who are playing ....the sun's out ...it's a fab days racing 😎😎

140 Chester 
Vintage clarets.  8.5 8/1 
Manila Scouse.   8.4 15/2 
Radio goo goo.  8.2 
 
5 PT Ew top 2 

140 Chester 
Auric. 8.6. 6/1 
Tsunami spirit. 8.4 11/1 bet
Old chums.  8.2 
3pt ew top 2 ....2pt Ew doubles with above race 

Lovely day here at HQ and enjoyed the sunshine.....2nd and 3rd in Guineas so not too bad!
soooo 2 bets in 4.45 with Hannons Dapper Valley @ 5/1 & Trefor @ 10/1 EW............
chit chat.....so funny as soon as off air, the TV were off and guess shot back to Hotel i guess for drink / meal.....
no Oli Bell either for a walk thru the race goers for inpromptu chat as TV loaded today with races every 15 mins!   
 
Our final race so hope to at least have a winner 🤞........
5.15     Christian David    6/1                  Key to Cotai   9/1 EW   WON                   Indivar  14/1  EW  ( placed earlier)                    5 places betfair       
😂 ive asked friends hubby to accompany me to collect 'MY' winnings 💷 this time.......unlike yesterday my handbag full of his winnings!    

Tamfana                                             3 40 New/       1/40th of a pt ew  66/1     - 4th
Porta Fortuna                                    3 40 New/       1/40th of a pt ew  20/1     - 2nd
Pride of Napal                                   4 30 Sby/         1/40th of a pt wn 18/1      - N/R
Lunar Eclipse                                     1 50 New/       1/40th of a pt ew  16/1
Vaguely Royal                                    3 00New/        1/40th of a pt ew  16/1      -2nd

Likewise lots of discussion for 1000 guineas but I think I'm just gonna back ...Porta fortuna ...Ew ...might not be better good enough but if the ground is on the fast side of good she will love it .....and I think she's overpriced 

As the bets have been discussed a rediscussed and are all over the place 
..today's are 
145 aberrama gold and rohaan Ew 
Guineas  I've got haatem Ew (win part 66/1) and ghostwriter Ew .....I just keep looking at haatems craven win and he just seemed to be enjoying himself and was never really pushed ...it was c/d ...that looks a lovely piece of form to me ....and he's had a run ......I'm hoping the bookies have made a big mistake with this horse 

Newmarket 1.45 Sixteen speedy animals go to post for the 6F class 2 handicap. It looks open but my shortlist comprises of the unexposed Charlie Hills runner Rabaah who’s been gelded since a decent fifth at York last June. His trainer still thinks he can make up into a pattern performer so has to be given plenty of respect. The veteran Summerghand was a massive eye catcher last time when running on to finish in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Craven meeting to finish fifth. Will he back that run up though? I’m not sure. Also there with claims is the Jack Channon runner Chairmanoftheboard who was runner up in this last year from a one pound lower mark and showed he retains all of his ability when runner up in a similar contest at Newbury last month won by Wiltshire. He’s the main pick although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Rabaah.   CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345 RABAAH 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 Coral 1/5th 12345   Goodwood 2.05 Eight fillies or mares have declared for this 1M listed William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes run over a mile. Most of these are proven on soft ground so the underfoot conditions shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Choisya won at the big meeting here last August from the re-opposing Novus on soft ground and should strip fitter than most having run well when going down by a head in a listed race on the all-weather at Kempton last month. She should be thereabouts but it’s the lightly raced William Haggas trained Orchid Bloom that may be the answer to this puzzle. She has soft or heavy ground form figures of 112 with the latter second coming in a listed race at Saint-Cloud last September going down by the shortest of margins. She’s run well fresh in the past and can take the first prize under Cieran Fallon.   ORCHID BLOOM 1 point win @ 7/2 Betfred   Newmarket 2.20 Another class 2 sixteen runner handicap with this one being run over 1M 1F. Again the race has a wide open look about it with the most interesting runner being the John & Thady Gosden entry Torito who was last seen running fourth at Royal Ascot in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes. He is 10lb higher now but if straight enough can feature at the business end. Plenty of these would prefer softer conditions and they include the likes of Liberty Lane, Mr Professor, Lattam and Theoryofeverything. One horse who won’t mind what the underfoot conditions are is Charlie Johnston’s Dutch Decoy who ran the re-opposing Hafeet Alain to a nose here at the Craven meeting and meets his rival on 4lb better terms which should be enough to turn the tables on him. The other Charlie Johnston runner here is Lion Of War who has the services of Oisin Murphy and returns to the Johnston stable having raced (just the once) for Brendan Walsh in America. He had previously ben a useful sort in handicaps notably when runner up at Royal Ascot in the Golden Gates Handicap off a mark 5lb lower than today’s. He can also be competitive but in a race where it may pay to keep stakes small the pick is the Dutch Decoy.   DUTCH DECOY 1 point each way @ 8/1 Coral 1/5th 12345   Thirsk 2.40 A maximum field of sixteen head to post for Thirsk’s big race of the day in the Vickers.bet Thirsk Hunt Cup run over a mile. Last year’s one - two Northern Express and Pisanello are back to challenge for the valuable prize and it maybe last year’s runner up Pisanello that can turn the table’s on his old rival on 5lb better terms for that 3/4L defeat. That was his first run of the season so we know that he can go well fresh and he went on from that fine effort to strike twice later in the season at Hamilton. He’s back on his last winning mark and an inside draw of stall one is always favourable on the turning track at Thirsk. Mark Winn has got on well with David O’Meara’s seven year old in the past, including in this race last year and looks good each way value in an open contest in which he could easily have been targeted at.   PISANELLO 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th12345   Newmarket 2.55 A rather disappointing renewal of the 5F Group 3 William Hill Palace House Stakes with eight going to post. The best in at the weights is the Charlie Hills trained Mitbaahy who ran well at the last meeting on his first run for Hills when fourth of 14 in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes won by Washington Heights. A reproduction of that run should see him go close and he’s the pick ahead of the only three year old in the field, the Karl Burke trained filly Beautiful Diamond who was last seen winning a listed race at Ayr at the Western meeting.   MITBAAHY 1 point win @ 7/2 Unibet   Newmarket 3.35 The first classic of the season is the Qipco 2000 Guineas run over a mile and this Group One contest has attracted eleven runners. At the top of the betting is the potential superstar City Of Troy. Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten Justify colt has looked a bit special in winning his three races as a juvenile culminating in success here over 7F in the Dewhurst. The extra furlong will not be a problem nor will any further easing of the ground. He’ll be very hard to beat and has the potential to be the best we’ve seen for a very long time. Second favourite Rosallion will be no pushover though as he was a very useful two year old who took the Group 1 Prix Jean-Lagardere at Longchamp on Arc weekend. His only disappointing run last year came on very soft ground so he wouldn’t want the ground to get too soft. Two interesting runners are the unbeaten pair of the Charlie Appleby trained Notable Speech who showed a sparkling turn of foot to win on the all weather a month ago at Kempton and the Karl Burke trained Night Raider who’s looked good in winning two all-weather races and again impressed in a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting. Both have to prove themselves on turf mind and the selection has to be City Of Troy who could be very special. If he wins this he will be a very short price for the Derby so maybe back him in the special price 2000/Derby double rather than at today’s cramped odds.   CITY OF TROY 2 points win double (to win 2000 Gns & Derby) 2/1 Ladbrokes

Abate                                         1 45 New/                   1/40th of a pt ew      28/1
Pisanello                                   2 40 Thk/                     1/40th of a pt ew      12/1
Expressionless                         4 55 Thk/                     1/40th of a pt ew      14/1
Captain Wierzba                      4 30 Gwd/                   1/40th of a pt ew       25/1
Comfort Zone                          5 25 Pun/                    1/40th of a pt ew       33/1
Mustazeed                               2 20 New/                   1/40th of a pt ew       25/1    - N/R

I've tried to calculate the fair odds from my systems but invariably it throws up a lot of the outsiders as value bets
For the 2000 guineas probably every horse apart from the favourite would be a value bet

I think the best thing about systems is throwing up a quick short list if you don't have the time or inclination to spend ages looking at the form for a days racing.......... use your system to get 3 or 4 'posibles' in a field and then look at those horses in more depth
Similar with 'Trends' ......... a quick way to eliminate a lot of runners in big fields
As long there's some logic behind the system or the trends then it's fair enough........ you have to accept that if you're quickly eliminating runners without due study then you're going to miss some winners !
 
 

I hope that I am transparent in my systems, I always state my profit or loss in the various threads I post on.
By your definition I am not smart because I will take the outcome of my system and bet on it regardless. So called negatives can in fact be positives if they are over compensated for in the betting.
You are right though, most systems fail. I always test mine on a years worth of data to see if it still makes a profit. I will then calculate the p-value to ensure that the results are not driven by chance. Even then I will bet small amounts until I have a sufficient bank for that system.

830 kemp 
Cajetan.  8.2 2/1 
Inv.speed 8.0 
Want want 8.0 18/1 
Bit of a risky one this ......cajetan could be anything trying kempton first time ....some horses just don't take to it ...invincible speed won well last time but hcapper hammered him 10lb so much more on plate today ... Computer said WANT WANT would be Ew value bet at 8/1 and he was around that last night but has drifted to 18/1 !!!!..     now that sounds negative but if it was value bet at 8 then 18 looks a gift .... I'll try small 3pts Ew in case there's a reason it's drifted 

If u can beat a price even at the exchange Ur winning long term. 

Well lets take different types of punters. I assume we are talking about singles here.
Type 1 The analysers or ratings creators (me) I expect my horse to win i never pick an ew (that's different than having an ew bet because a daft sod would be a fool to back win only on a 33/1 shot, again me) so would have to be confident in my selection anyway so i would want the bigger price.
Type 2 The casual punter that just likes to have a bet, he might choose to have a win bet or an ew depending on its price if he is betting for fun rather than profit (a winning bet would be nice) could choose either.
Type 3 The punter that knows nothing about horses (you 🤣) and shouldn't really be having a bet on gg's should take the extra places in both cases.
Type 4 The shit bag punter that is scared of losing money that would go EW on a 3/1 shot type, he would defo pick both the extra place options.
Not applicable to Type 5 punters, The don't give a f**k punter that can't even be bothered reading past the list of runners let alone the "options"
 

Another variable is that Sky do not offer BOG.
Another feature is the "shape" of the betting, if the favourite is short priced then there is likely to be more benefit of betting each way

Had 2 L15's on the daily = 3 pts
2.45 Ayr Smalleytime 1 pt win at 8.2
3.15 Ayr Bustaam 1 pt win at 7.60
= 5 pts staked today
No Naps today