Double Up yesterday 1st @ 11\10 & 1st @ 7\4
Mistrix 15.45 York 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 (bog)
10/3, progressed plenty from debut when neck second of 13 in 7f maiden at Salisbury 24 days ago, just failing. Has scope and can do even better. Leading claims.
1st @ 15\8 & 2nd yesterday
Loves Me Likearock 18.30 Wolverhampton 1 Pt Win @ 11\10 (bog)
Confirmed debut promise when winning 11-runner novice at Lingfield (6f, AW) 14 days ago, easing clear. More to come and the one to beat.
Glenquin Castle 16.30 Wexford 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 (bog)
5/2, career best when winning 13-runner handicap chase at Kilbeggan (25f, good to soft) 15 days ago by 1½ lengths from Ballinasilla. More to come and leading claims.
Unless you're thinking of the good staying chaser from 1977/78, the more modest two mile chaser of the late 1930s/early 1940s, or the classy French steeplechaser of the early 2000s, I can only imagine your having seen my posts elsewhere
Anyways, time for the first preview of the season. Again, I am not a tipster and everything here is for information purposes only!
Personally, I think shouting the word "hype" over and over again in front of strobe lights to the sounds hardstyle techno and obnoxious siren effects would be an apt means of expressing the amount of excitement one ought to have for Saturday's three fifteen at Hexham. Nevertheless, some people prefer words so here are are some words. Two thousand, two hundred and seventy three of them in fact. Enjoy!
At the beginning of this century, the season's opening juvenile hurdle took place at Market Rasen during mid-late July. In 2004, Stratford supplanted Market Rasen by a week before the latter reclaimed its position in 2006 by hosting the first juvenile hurdle to be held in June since summer jumping became a whole thing. Not to be outdone, Stratford raised the curtain on the Tenth of June in 2007 before Hexham stepped in to give those competing in the 2008 Epsom Derby an insight into what awaited them if they did not fancy retiring to the breeding sheds. The following year, Stratford hosted the first three-year-old hurdle to be held in May. Everybody agreed that this was silly and apart from Ffos Las going four days ahead of Hexham in 2012, and Newton Abbot getting things underway during "the uncertain times", British juvenile hurdlers have been making their first forays at the country's most beautiful racecourse.
With an average winning DI of 0.99, 0.51 points below that of the average runner, Hexham is the most demanding racecourse of any British or Irish track with ten or more participants since 2004/05. The completion rate of 77.44% attests to this notion, although it is not so demanding insofar as jumping is concerned as its clear round rate of 97.64% is well above average. The going is currently good, good-to-soft in places, and will be watered to maintained as no significant rain is forecast in the interim. From a punting perspective, Hexham does get more than its fair share of beaten odds-on favourites (six from ten since 2004/05), although its winners' mean SP of 5.08, median 3.25, is much kinder by comparison. It will come as a surprise to nobody that the average winner of this contest has a very low seasonal best RPR with the mark of 108.47 bettered by all courses apart from Cartmel and Fakenham. This particular contest is no exception with its winners posting average seasonal bests of 103.59, although it is not without its occasional useful participants. City Dreamer, Come On Sunshine and Maria Magdalena went on to reach the frame in the Wensleydale Hurdle while 2008 winner Simarian won and placed in graded company at Cheltenham prior to finishing seventh in that season's Triumph. Saturday's edition looks an above average renewal with several respectable trainers and sires represented, three runners whose flat form exceeds the standard sufficient to win this race along with a Saint des Saints nephew of Sprinter Sacre. While somewhat trappy and not likely to provide any superstars, it would not be unreasonable to imagine it producing future winners during the early season.
Family Time bg Alex Hales f1-0-0 (-) 0 Excelebration (Azamour){7}(2.00) 3/1 Architrave 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2010
Alex Hales has a fairly ordinary record with juvenile hurdlers, although he enjoyed fruitful spells in the division during the past two summers courtesy of Hiconic and Maria Magdalena. His first representative this term is set to be Family Time who was tailed off on his sole start in a Newbury novice stakes last October. Family Time can be forgiven that outing as he did not emerge from the stalls until the rest of the field had completed a furlong. However, he was still an unfancied 200/1 chance that day and his subsequent absence will be a concern. Furthermore, while his granddam is a half-sister to 2010s prolific early season juvenile Architrave, the rest of the pedigree does not bode well as Excelebration has just one winner from sixteen in the division, damsire Azamour has just one from twelve, and though Windshear (2/1) was a good stayer on the flat, he failed to win from seven starts over hurdles.
Inferno Sacree bg Nigel Hawke Unraced Saint des Saints (Daramsar){u}(0.67) 2/1 Sprinter Sacre 1st Champion Chase (G1), Cheltenham 2013
Few early season juveniles will have as compelling a pedigree as the unraced Inferno Sacree. Costing €37,000 at Arqana as a yearling, Inferno Sacree is a son of Saint des Saints, an outsdtanding source of juveniles both domestically (Whetstone, Buddy Banks, Goliath du Berlais) and as exports (Monmiral, Fusil Raffles, Sametegal) with laudable figures across the board. The damline is also compelling as it includes half-brother Emir Sacree, useful sorts Flinteur Sacre (2/1), Gazump (3/1), Tiot Cas (3/2), Echo Sacre (3/2) and most notably, the outstanding champion Sprinter Sacre. Sending Inferno Sacree to an unusual location for his debut is Nigel Hawke who maintained his solid record in the division last season with three winners including Historic Heart. However, while three of his fourteen runners at Hexham have been winners, he is not generally given to sending juveniles to the venue and the eyecatching booking of Brian Hughes is not compelling from a statistical perspective as the pair have yet to have a winner from three. Furthermore, Hawke's first time out record in the sphere of two wins from fifty-four is a poor one which does not bode well considering that the overall strike rate for unraced newcomers is a miserly 2.04%. Notwithstanding, the trainer did infamously saddle the unraced Tiger Roll ahead of his racecourse debut at Market Rasen in 2013.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014 https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
Since 2004/05, fifty horses have been claimed out of flat races on the continent prior to juvenile hurdling campaigns in Britain and Ireland. With eleven winners sharing nineteen successes, their record is a respectable one. David Pipe accounted for nine of these animals amongst whom four were winners - most notably Adagio who won three last term, including the Grade One at Chepstow, prior to twice placing at the festivals. However, Adagio was very much the exception in this regard as only he and Bocamix (123) achieved RPRs exceeding 120.despite sixteen such horses being rated 80 and above on the flat. The latest import is Koi Dodville who was claimed by David Pipe for €14,506 after finishing second in a good ground ten furlong contest at Saint Cloud last month. The third and fourth each finished runner-up next time, and Koi Dodville had been running respectably since his return in March, placing twice in handicap company at Pornichet before getting off the mark at Nancy over 1950 meters on his penultimate outing. Tracking the clear leader for much of the race, he went into the lead a with a furlong and a half left to run before holding on to an ever decreasing lead at the line. Last time at Saint-Cloud, Koi Dodville again went clear at the distance, but did not look entirely resolute in his failed attempt to fend off his challenger. The headgear worn in France has been left off for his hurdling debut. Insofar as his pedigree is concerned French Fifteen has made an encouraging start from limited opportunities with three winners from ten in France, and the promising French Aseel being one of the two to have raced in Britain or Ireland. However, the same can not yet be said for Aussie Rules as a damsire and the are few jumpers on the damline prior to Uriah Heep (3/2) and City Hall (5/2). David Pipe has saddled one winner from three in this contest, and his first time strike rate of 18.18% is very respectable. However, of the yard's claimer sourced flat imports, only Adagio won first time, while Nike Walker, Closer To Home and Paricolor (also bought out of the Ludovic Gadbin yard) would not score until entering handicap company.
McGregors Charge bg Nigel Hawke Unraced Recharge (Le Triton){36}(1.13) 2/2 Pafadas 1st Prix de Chambly (L,3yoH), Auteuil 2013
Nigel Hawke's second runner, and presumably his second string, is another unraced newcomer in McGregors Charge. Though not as immediately prestigious as his stablemate's, the homebred McGregors Charge's damline is not without its merits. The dam is a winning two mile chaser while the granddam presides over a family containing several useful French youngsters including listed placed Dans l'Espas (2/2) and listed winner Pafadas (2/2), herself a dam of black type earners Mauricius and Altus. Recharge is without any juveniles in France, Britain or Ireland, although three of his seven hurdlers have been winners and Cape Cross has produced a couple of winning sires in the sphere in Golden Horn and Sea The Stars. Le Triton has not been tested as a damire of juveniles on these shores, but he was responsible for the talented Grand Charly as a sire. McGregors Charge is entitled to respect on his pedigree, although his limitations being a debutant are addressed in Inferno Sacree's piece.
Percy Willis bg Jedd O'Keeffe f6-0-2 (71) 72 Sir Percy (Dansili){16-a}(0.33) 3/1 Fire Top 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Kempton 1989
Sir Percy is one of several sires in this contest with above average credentials, and though he rather lacks in terms of star quality, his strike rate between the months of June and October stands at 40.63%. His first declared representative of the new season, Percy Willis. just about sets the standard on flat form according to Timeform. Though winless in four starts for Eve Johnson Houghton (whose graduates have a three wins from nineteen runners in juvenile hurdles), he managed to place twice at Lingfield prior to joining Jedd O'Keeffe for 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls March sale. The Middleham trainer has been having something of a lean spell, although he did hit the crossbar at Ayr this afternoon, signalling a potential return to form. His overall record in the sphere is a respectable one with a 27.27% winner to runner rate, a 47.37% improvement rate, and a first time out record of 14.29% which increases to 28.57% with flat runners rated 62 and above. Percy Willis did not impress on his stable debut at Beverley, but he was better last time at Redcar where while he pulled in the early stages, was able to settle better ahead of getting outpaced to finish a three and a half length fourth. That these performances came on good to firm suggests he can improve with a bit more give in the ground. The damline is not massively encouraging as the first winner along the line, Reg Akehurst's Fire Top, comes at the third dam and Dansili has just five winners from thirty-nine as a damsire. Nevertheless, with stamina essentially assured, demonstrable flat form, and a trainer with solid credentials for this contest, the credentials of Percy Willis are worthy of respect.
Smart Boyo bg Philip Kirby f3-0-0 (54) 45 War Command (Kheleyf){13-a}(2.11) 3/1 Minnesota 1st 2m Novices' Selling Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2000
Trainer Philip Kirby's improvement rate of 65% is the strongest in this field and War Command was able to get off the mark in the sphere last season with Crassus and Battle of Benburb scoring in Ireland. However, Smart Boyo's switch to hurdles will need to bring about a significant amount of improvement as his three flat runs this spring, beaten almost eighty lengths combined, have offered very little promise. There is little encouragement to be drawn from the damline either as the nearest winning jumps relative was a modest one, and War Command's two winners each had lower dosage indexes.
Space Kid chg Adrian Paul Keatley f12-1-6 (64) 70 Tamayuz (Danehill Dancer){13-c}(2.11) 3/1 Cape Express 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (125), Aintree 2012
Though better known for his sprinters and milers, Tamayuz is not above producing stayers like Desert Skyline. Furthermore, his daughter, Skylark Lady, won this race in 2016 and with four winning juveniles from thirteen, his overall record in the sphere is a solid one. Space Kid's damline is also respectable as Danehill Dancer's record is the best of a modest set represented in this field, and winning hurdlers Leo McGarry and Cape Express each appear at 3/1. A winner of a Wolverhampton nursery last November, Space Kid performed consistently on the all-weather during the winter before maintaining his form on the turf on his latest outings at Thirsk and Beverley. Like many tough, game, consistent and versatile sorts of his ilk, Space Kid appears to be a victim of his own success as his flat rating, which leaves him a good half stone off the top two here, is not relenting. Furthermore, his yard, which has had one winning juvenile from eight, has recently had few horses run to form.
Saramenha chf Jamie Snowden f3-0-1 (59) 59 Mastercraftsman (Zamindar){1-e}(2.43) 3/3 Voix du Soir 1st 3800m Handicap Hurdle (58.0), Dieppe 2020
The prolific Mastercraftsman has twenty-three individual winning juvenile hurdlers to his name including several useful sorts such as Master Blueyes, Wolf Of Windlesham and Intense Tango. Though the damline is quiet on the first few rungs, Voix du Nord, a talented sire of juveniles, appears at 3/2 while Detroit City, Royal Shakespeare and Tower Bridge can all be found in the distance at 5/3. However, these factors will need to have a significant impact on the credentials of Saramenha. Her two runs last term for Ralph Beckett, whose graduates have a good winner to runner rate, but poor improvement rate, were fair at best and following a 15,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls last Autumn, she failed to show in a Nottingham maiden over an extended mile four weeks ago. Jamie Snowden has been among the winners recently, and he has saddled three to score in juvenile hurdles from eighteen, although his improvement rate of just 10% between codes is well below par.
Strong prospects
1. Percy Willis Reasonable prospects
2. Inferno Sacree
3. Koi Dodville
4. Space Kid Feasible prospects
5. McGregors Charge Moderate prospects
6. Saramenha Negligible prospects
7. Smart Boyo
8. Family Time
1st @ Evens & 4th yesterday
Brazen Bolt 15.20 Newcastle 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
9/1, career best when winning 9-runner handicap at this C&D 14 days ago. Raised 6 lb for that success but manages to drop in class here. Obvious claims.
Nero Rock 18.37 Kilbeggan 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
Fairly useful hurdler who ran best race over fences when 1 length third of 6 in a Killarney maiden (17f) last month, held only late on. Looks an obvious player with a repeat.
3rd & 5th yesterday
Outbreak 13.30 Salisbury 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
Dark Angel colt who showed plenty of ability in pushing an experienced rival close when second of 7 in minor event (9/2) at Chelmsford City (8f) on debut 12 days ago, running on. May well do better.
Machine Learner 19.15 Clonmel 1 Pt Win @ 5\2 (bog)
First run since leaving Padraig Roche when fourth of 16 in handicap at Roscommon (12f, good to soft, 50/1) 17 days ago, finishing with running left. Has good chance on pick of form.
Most winners.
An odds on loser today but a loser as well for @vangovinmeans that @Alastairhas an unassailable lead with 2 days to go. He will set a new record (the previous record was also held by him) with 22 winners already, fantastic effort.
Two 2nd's today
Sea Prince 18.45 Hexham 1 pt Win @ 11/8 (bog)
C&D winner who readily made it 2-3 over hurdles in 2m1f handicap at Cartmel 65 days ago, going with enthusiasm. 3 lb rise seems unlikely to prevent him from going in again.
2nd today
Cemhaan 15.45 Epsom 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 (bog)
6/1, bit below form seventh of 12 in handicap at Newcastle (12.4f) 32 days ago. Has to be taken seriously on couple of runner-up efforts prior to that.
Punakha 16.40 Roscommon 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog)
Lightly-raced filly. 7/1 and visored for 1st time, good second of 13 in maiden at the Curragh (7f, good to soft) 22 days ago. Bold bid expected.
Double up yesterday 1st @ 5/4 & 1st @ 3/1 (bog)
Beltane 13.55 Beverley 1 pt win @ 6/4 (bog)
Promising sort. 4/1, second of 10 in maiden at Catterick (7f, good) 26 days ago, keeping on despite being hampered. Sets a pretty good standard.
Double up yesterday 1st @ 5/4 & 1st @ 3/1 (bog)
Beltane 13.55 Beverley 1 pt win @ 6/4 (bog)
Promising sort. 4/1, second of 10 in maiden at Catterick (7f, good) 26 days ago, keeping on despite being hampered. Sets a pretty good standard.
Double up yesterday 1st @ 5/4 & 1st @ 3/1 (bog)
Beltane 13.55 Beverley 1 pt win @ 6/4 (bog)
Promising sort. 4/1, second of 10 in maiden at Catterick (7f, good) 26 days ago, keeping on despite being hampered. Sets a pretty good standard.
3rd & 1st @ 5\4 yesterday
Alqamar 17.50 Cartmel 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog)
Useful Flat stayer who has made a fine start over hurdles, completing the hat-trick in fine style under this pilot over C&D in July. 8 lb higher now but chances are he can do better again.
HMS Endeavour 13.30 Navan 1 Pt WIn @ 3\1 (bog)
Bred in the purple and showed plenty amidst greenness when third of 8 in maiden at Naas (5.9f, good, 9/2) on debut 38 days ago. Sure to improve.
Second day and a jackpot!
Profit of the day =+210?
Nordsjaelland vs vejle 1(1.70)? +70?
Recoleta vs colchagua 1(1.70)? +70?
Njardvik vs hankar 1(1.70)? +70?
Well, the system performing like usually!
Double Up - 1st @ 6\5 & 1st @ 3\1
Thunder Flash 14.55 Chelmsford 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 (bog)
Fair gelding. C&D winner. Latest win here in August. 10/11, creditable second of 10 in handicap at Wolverhampton (12.2f) 7 days ago, needing stronger gallop. Should take the beating.
Pretty Gorgeous 18.00 Tipperary 1 pt Win @ 13\8 (bog)
Smart performer at 2 yrs and seems to be working her way back to that level, 3 lengths seventh of 13 to Snow Lantern in Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket last time. Big player down in grade.
Double Up - 1st @ 6\5 & 1st @ 3\1
Thunder Flash 14.55 Chelmsford 1 Pt Win @ 5\6 (bog)
Fair gelding. C&D winner. Latest win here in August. 10/11, creditable second of 10 in handicap at Wolverhampton (12.2f) 7 days ago, needing stronger gallop. Should take the beating.
Pretty Gorgeous 18.00 Tipperary 1 pt Win @ 13\8 (bog)
Smart performer at 2 yrs and seems to be working her way back to that level, 3 lengths seventh of 13 to Snow Lantern in Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket last time. Big player down in grade.
1st @ 9\5 & 1st @ 11\10 today
Mystic Dragon 14.30 Yarmouth 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
Improved on recent efforts to win 8-runner handicap (7/2) at this C&D (good to firm) 20 days ago. 5 lb rise doesn't look at all prohibitive and another bold show on the cards.
Chicago Soldier 16.20 Bellewstown 1 Pt Win @ 11\10 (bog)
Thrice-raced colt. 6/1, found only one narrowly too good when second of 8 in maiden at Leopardstown (8f, good to soft) 19 days ago, headed post. Yard in good form. Another bold show likely.
1st @ 9\5 & 1st @ 11\10 today
Mystic Dragon 14.30 Yarmouth 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
Improved on recent efforts to win 8-runner handicap (7/2) at this C&D (good to firm) 20 days ago. 5 lb rise doesn't look at all prohibitive and another bold show on the cards.
Chicago Soldier 16.20 Bellewstown 1 Pt Win @ 11\10 (bog)
Thrice-raced colt. 6/1, found only one narrowly too good when second of 8 in maiden at Leopardstown (8f, good to soft) 19 days ago, headed post. Yard in good form. Another bold show likely.
1st @ 5\1 & 11th today
Captain Cobajay 19.05 Stratford 1 Pt Win @ 6\5 (bog)
Landed a gamble from much-reduced mark on debut for new stable at Market Rasen 9 days ago and remains potentially thrown in on old form, so he's an obvious choice to follow up.
Nikini 20.15 Ballinrobe 1 Pt Win @ 11\10 (bog)
Sea Moon filly. Half-sister to 6 winners, including bumper winner/fairly useful hurdler Sometime Soon and fairly useful hurdler Touch Back. Dam 1¼m winner. Will take all the beating.
Double up yesterday 1st @ 7\4 & 1st @ 4\1 ......
Ocean Wilde 14.20 Brighton 1 Pt Win @ 9\4 (bog)
14/1 and blinkered for 1st time, very good second of 6 in handicap at this course (7f, good to soft) 16 days ago, clear of rest. Down in trip. Visor back on. Makes most appeal.
Affable 15.30 Naas 1 Pt WIn @ 5\1 (bog)
C&D winner who posted career best when winning 8-runner handicap at Cork (7f, soft, 7/1) 15 days ago. Trainer going well so another bold showing is likely.
1st @ 10\11 (Won in the stewards room) treble Up
Mr Tambourine Man 18.30 Worcester @ 9\4 (bog)
Lightly raced and landed a gamble in clear-cut style on his final outing for John Halley at Killarney in May. Couple of spins on the Flat for this yard should have him spot on for follow-up bid.
Treble - 1st Leg - 1 Pt WIn
Double - 2nd Leg - 1.91 Pts Win
Single - 1 Pt WIn
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