Xtc12

Going to stay away from Zurich Classic
Ashun Wu @ 60\1
Larrazabal @ 28\1
Lawrence @ 60\1
Ferguson @ 80\1
Fox @ 60\1
Usual 1 Pt E/W on each

Double Up yesterday two 9\4 winners.
Monsieur Fantaisie 13.00 Bath 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog)
Winner at Chelmsford City in January. 3/1, good second of 12 in handicap at Kempton (6f) 53 days ago. Expected to be bang there. 

5th & 2nd yesterday
Magisterial 15.51 Leicester 1 Pt Win @ 9\4 (bog)
Frankel colt from a great family and confirmed debut promise when off the mark in an 8.2f novice at Haydock in October. Will stay 1¼m and open to further improvement. 
Concert Hall 16.15 Navan 1 Pt Win @ 9\4 (bog)
Useful filly. Two wins from 6 runs last year. 4 lengths sixth of 9 to Inspiral in Fillies' Mile (17/2) at Newmarket (8f, good to soft). Off 6 months but fitnes no issue given yard and she's a big form player. 
Update Year 6

Shock horror things have changed this year with Irish picks getting off to a flyer. The UK Strike Rate is terrible at the moment. The one year the UK ended with a loss the SR was 36.5% and the average overall for the UK is 38.7%, so need a good run soon enough to get this 28.13 % rising. 

Kilbeggan : Disaster, not even close to a place
Tipperary : Messa Concertata 1st @ 6\1, Hymn Book Too 1st @ 10\1, Inchiquin Star 2nd @ 8\1, Stay Local 3rd @ 5\1 
Kilbeggan
16.25 Zoom Tiger @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
17.00 Gotthenod @ 5\1  1/5 1-5
17.30 Shoot First @ 8\1 1/5 1-3
18.00 Ask and Answer @ 5\1  1/5 1-5
18.30 Ciao Bella @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
19.00 Different Strokes @ 13\2  1/5 1-4
19.30 Western run @ 10\1  1/5 1-3

 

Double Up yesterday 1st @ 11\8 (R4 55p) & 1st @ 100\30
War Horse 17.05 Doncaster 1 Pt Win @ Evens (bog)
Goodwood maiden winner at 2. Improved on that when second in C&D handicap on reappearance 26 days ago. Good chance of going one better with further progress on the cards. 
Bacardys 19.30 Kilbeggan 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog)
Smart hurdler at best but without a win since 2019. Second of 4 in novice chase (7/4) at Thurles (22f, good to soft) 34 days ago. Does have a tendency to make the odd mistake but a bold bid is expected here. 

Going to stay away from Zurich Classic
Ashun Wu @ 60\1
Larrazabal @ 28\1
Lawrence @ 60\1
Ferguson @ 80\1
Fox @ 60\1
Usual 1 Pt E/W on each

Put a few on for Handa Euro Tour, all free bets. 
 
Each ways on P. Larazzabal, J. Campillo and W. Beszeling. 
Wins on B. Wiesberger and R. Hojgaard 

Speith wins at 33s, so good profit on small free bets. 
Have a host of free bets to use, so if theres a euro on top of us will be able to choose quite a few. 

Cork : Wee Willie Nail 3rd @ 12\1, Copper Nation 1st @ 5\1, Cash Back 2nd @ 13\2, Martha Divine 2nd @ 10\1
Fairyhouse : Master McShee 2nd @ 7\1, Dr Eggman 3rd @17\2 
Cork
13.50 Friends N Commerce @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
14.25 The Niffler @ 5\1  1/5 1-5
14.59 Whiskeywealth @ 15\2  1/5 1-3
15.34 Sofia's Castle @ 6\1  1/4 1-2
16.44 Down the Highway @ 14\1 1/4 1-2
17.54 Rocknrye @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
Fairyhouse
14.05 Vadaly @ 11\2 1/5 1-5
14.40 Lunar Power @ 6\1  1/4 1-2
15.15 Festival D'Ex @ 5\1  1/5 1-5
15.50 Heaven Help Us @ 8\1  1/5 1-4
16.20 Easy Game @ 4\1  1/4 1-2
17.00 Time To Get Up @ 14\1  1/5 1-7
17.40 Donkey Years @ 4\1  1/5 1-4

Double Up yesterday, a pair of 2\1's
Duchray 17.30 Southwell 1 Pt Win @ 9\4 (bog)
Promising start when winning 8-runner novice at Pontefract (5f, soft, 5/1) 6 days ago. The one to beat with improvement on the cards. 
Melon 15.30 Cork 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
High-class chaser. Latest win in chase at Gowran in February. Below-par fifth of 7 to Allaho in Ryanair Chase (Festival Trophy) (16/1) at Cheltenham (20.6f, good to soft) 31 days ago. Big player back in these calmer waters. 

1st yesterday @ 3\1 
Miss Sligo 19.00 Lingfield 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog)
Modest mare. Career best when winning 6-runner handicap (10/3) at this course (12f, AW) 14 days ago. Should make a bold bid to complete the hat-trick. 
Thunder Kiss 15,25 Cork 1 Pt Win @ 2\1 (bog)
Smart mare. Won 16-runner listed race at Naas (11.9f, soft, 5/2) by neck from Sweet Molly Malone. Off 6 months but this C&D winner holds very good claims. 
 

3 Placed yesterday and 2 Non Runners ...... Simpatico @ 7\1, Trouble and Strife @ 10\1 & Iridescent @ 11\2

Cork & Fairyhouse tomorrow, possibly blow the whole profit tomorrow 
 @harry_rag good idea on keeping totals for just the win !
 
 

Going with the usual suspects and a newbie :
Cameron Smith @ 13/1 
Sungiae Im  @ 28/1 
Tom Hoge @ 55/1
J.Niemann @ 28/1 
JJ Spaun @ 55/1 
  All 1/5 odds 8 places.
 

Well done yesterday, always nice to get in front with a new system rather than start with a lean spell. Might be worth recording the returns to 10 point win bets as well for comparison.

Going with the usual suspects and a newbie :
Cameron Smith @ 13/1 
Sungiae Im  @ 28/1 
Tom Hoge @ 55/1
J.Niemann @ 28/1 
JJ Spaun @ 55/1 
  All 1/5 odds 8 places.
 

Clonmel
16.15 Joseph Conrad @ 11\2  1/4  1-2
16.50 Rare Conor @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
17.20 Shes Some Doll @ 6\1  1/5 1-4
17.50 Simpatico @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
18.20 Trouble and Strife @ 15\2  1/5 1-3
18.50 Iridescent @ 11\2 1/5 1-5
19.20 Cool Survivor @ 7\1 1/5 1-3

Two winners ... Plunkett @ 6\1 & Bay of Bengal @ 8\1 .... Needle Lace 3rd @ 6\1 ..... returns 115

 

Going with the usual suspects and a newbie :
Cameron Smith @ 13/1 
Sungiae Im  @ 28/1 
Tom Hoge @ 55/1
J.Niemann @ 28/1 
JJ Spaun @ 55/1 
  All 1/5 odds 8 places.
 

Two winners ... Plunkett @ 6\1 & Bay of Bengal @ 8\1 .... Needle Lace 3rd @ 6\1 ..... returns 115

 

You seem to be off to a great start. Good luck with this ?

Double Up yesterday 1st @ 6\4 & 3\1 
Jamil  15.25 Beverley 1 Pt Win @ 13\8 (bog)
Ended losing run over hurdles at Newcastle (16.2f) in March and followed up with any amount to spare back on the level at Catterick (12f) 7 days ago. No surprise to see him out under a penalty and big shout with a repeat. 
Cyclamen 16.15 Gowran Park 1 Pt Win @ 7\4 (bog)
Fairly useful filly. Remains a maiden after 8 Flat runs. 12/1, good third of 10 in handicap at Leopardstown (10f, good) 11 days ago. Good chance on form for top connections. 

3 placed yesterday - Jake Peter @ 11\2, Amanirenas @ 5\1 & Cherry Bloom @ 5\1 for a return of 30.50
Gowran Park
16.50 Tharif @ 11\2  1/5 1-3
17.20 Helpmeout @ 11\2  1/5 1-4
17.50 Plunkett @ 6\1  1/5 1-3
18.20 Kiss You Later @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
18.50 Bay of Bengal @ 7\1  1/5 1-3
19.20 Needle Lace @ 5\1  1/5 1-3

 

From todays selections we had a 2nd and a winner.
Igraine @ 5\1 - 2nd
Frazel Express @ 15\2 - 1st
Update :

Dundalk tomorrow.

Needed to start a new thread here so this is what I came up with. 
On looking at my Irish bets in my thread the Conflict Cup the Strike Rate (Win Bets) over 6 years is 32.97% giving me a loss of 25.18 Pts from 1274 bets.
Over the last 3 years and the current year the selections have shown a strike rate of 70.83%, 65.78%, 62.93% and for the current year 70.58% for the selections to come in the first three.
Now, from this I cannot tell whether all these horses were in place payout positions but also 4th and 5th place finishes are not taken into account. 
I am going to do an EW bet in most races at most meetings in Ireland and see how it goes. 
How will I pick the selections : I will continue to pick my daily selections for the Conflict  Cup and if any of these guarantees me a profit (or stake return) they will be a selection here. Otherwise I will pick a horse that would be my next best in the race. All selections will have odds of better than 4\1 or 5\1 depending on the place payout.
I started this on paper on the 2nd April with the Leopardstown meeting and up to and including Tramore and the Curragh yesterday things look like this.

Lets see how it goes, starting with Tramore today all odds will be with Bet365. For the exercise all bets will be 5 Pts EW
16.30 Igraine @ 5\1  1/5 1-3
17.30 Aunty Audrey @ 8\1  1/5 1-4
18.00 Frazel Express @ 7\1  1/5 1-4
18.30 An Droichead Eile @ 11\1  1/5 1-3
19.00 Singing Banjo @ 7\1  1/5 1-4

Update :
Year 6

Very slow start to Year 6, 
Usual in Ireland, disappointing in GB although, 49% of selections have finished 2nd, so maybe they might start getting their noses in front sooner than later. 
For Langy 15.50 Wincanton 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
Ex-French Flat/hurdle winner. Lightly raced for current connections and has made a positive start over fences, so likely to capitalise on what appears to be an excellent opportunity to open his account. 
Hide and Seek 14.15 Tramore 1 Pt Win @ 15\8 (bog)
Lightly-raced maiden who had been progressing gradually prior to finishing third over C&D (heavy) on New Year's Day. Worth another chance to get back on the up after a break.