Gidds

Tranmere v York

Just the six games in the National League on Saturday and the matches looked priced up about right. I do however think there is value in backing Tranmere in the -1 handicap market to see off York. It didn’t quite pay off in taking on York on Tuesday night, but it would be pretty surprising if they were able to get back to winning ways against a red hot Tranmere side. Micky Mellon has improved them since taking over and has also strengthened the team as well. A win here will see them go back to the top of the table and they should do that with ease. The 23/20 about them covering the handicap looks a fair price.


 
Harrogate v AFC Telford

Granted AFC Telford have only won once away from home in the league all season and that was against Altrincham, but I do think they are an improving side and as I have highlighted recently Harrogate are in shocking form. They have only gained one point in their last 7 matches with that coming against Salford, who they also drew with in the FA Trophy last weekend. It is taking a bit of a flyer, but I really do think there isn’t as much between these two sides as the betting suggests. Marathon are biggest at 22/5.


 
Ilkeston v Grantham

Whitby put in a disappointing performance last weekend when I napped them to beat Ilkeston, but I think it is still worth opposing them. They are winless in 6 now and Grantham are in decent enough form plus they did beat Whitby themselves last week. That was only their 2nd away win of the season, but I am not sure a youthful Ilkeston side will be able to hold out for the 2nd week running and at BetVictor’s 7/4 it is well worth backing Grantham.


My FA Cup tips are on that thread.

Boreham Wood v Sutton

I have written (and profited from) about Sutton’s awful away form in the National League this season and that certainly continued on Saturday as they were the first team to lose to North Ferriby in 10 matches. They were poor as well and with Boreham Wood quietly moving into 8th place in the table after a good win over Southport on Saturday, a home win looks the most likely scenario here. Sometimes teams can bounce back from poor efforts, but Wood have only conceded 6 times at home all season and it doesn’t look an obvious fixture for Sutton to improve their away form. Marathon’s 13/10 looks a big price about a home win.


 
Maidstone v Dagenham & Redbridge

Dagenham are prone to the odd disastrous result (mostly when I have tipped them up) as their 5-0 defeat to Gateshead just over a week ago showed. Those results will stop them from winning the league, but they should surely be odds on shots to win this. In typical style the only time Maidstone have won at home in their last 8 league games was when I was on Macclesfield to beat them, but as that stat shows their 3G pitch doesn’t seem to hold an advantage for them. They are bottom of the 8 game form table and were well beaten 3-0 by Woking on Saturday. They are in dreadful form at the moment and it is only a good start to the season that still means they have a 6 point gap from the relegation zone. Like I say Dagenham should be odds on shots and Marathon’s 13/10 is way too big in my view.


 
York City v Lincoln

York were the team that Dagenham beat on Saturday and that meant it was 12 National League games since they last picked up 3 points. I think there has been a little bit of improvement, but they are now in the relegation zone after 20 matches and the squad just don’t look anywhere near good enough. Lincoln meanwhile produced an incredible result in the live game on BT Sport on Saturday. They came from 2-0 down to beat league leaders Forest Green 3-2 with their final 2 goals coming in the 89th and 91st minutes. That result was massive, but it is vital for their title chances that they back that up with a win against a team who have gone so long without a victory. The manner of that win should certainly be a huge plus and with Marathon going a shade of odds against an away win is well worth backing.


 
Tamworth v Stockport

The Non League Paper wrote an article on Tamworth’s recent good form last week and it mentioned that no one had tipped them up to be promotion contenders this season. That wasn’t strictly true though as along with Fylde they were my recommended bets at the start of the season. Tamworth have now won five on the bounce and that has included beating two of the current top three in the table. Chorley who are in 2nd are the only team to come away from Tamworth with 3 points this term and inconsistent Stockport are going to find this tough. Unless they can sneak into the play-offs it already looks like Stockport are going to have another season at this level and their disappointing defeat to Bradford on Saturday sums up their time in this league so far. At BetVictor’s 6/5 there is just enough in the price to back a home win.


 
Tonbridge Angels v Merstham

My Nap’s on Saturday were Staines to beat Merstham which they did with ease. The main reason I made Staines the Nap’s was because of Merstham’s shocking away form. They have only picked up two points on their travels and scored just three goals in the process. Tonbridge have been struggling for wins in recent weeks, which was rather surprising as they looked possible title contenders prior to the dip in form. However they got a fantastic win against Needham Market on Saturday as that was their first defeat in 8 games and it will be disappointing if they did follow that up with another 3 points here. Marathon’s 19/20 looks a fair price.


 
Barrow v Guiseley and Cinderford v Chippenham

A short price double to end things which pays around 6/4 with Bet365. I chanced Guiseley at the weekend despite the fact they have only picked up one point away from home all season, as I thought Dover might be vulnerable after their FA Cup match on Thursday. In the end Dover had more than enough to win and Barrow, who are unbeaten in 18 matches, really should pick up another 3 points. Cinderford haven’t improved for a change of manager and they are already detached at the bottom of the Evo-Stik Southern Premier. Chippenham are currently in 2nd and thrashed the team directly above Cinderford, Cambridge City, 5-0 on Saturday. 6/4 for both Barrow and Chippenham to win looks a good price.

Jesus Christ... might as well close this forum off for a few weeks then! Enjoy your holiday. Time for the crazies to overrun the asylum! Does anybody have tips for the non-league matches this weekend that could possibly come close to matching the expertise of @addpea?

A quick message to say I am going on holiday to Australia on Wednesday for 3 weeks and although I indeed to keep my eye in there certainly won't be any in depth previews on the games and I obviously won't be on here much.

Eastleigh v Torquay

I still think there is more to come from this Eastleigh side which is worrying for their promotion rivals because since Ronnie Moore took over they have only lost once. They got a very good point against Lincoln at the weekend and they should get the three points here against a Torquay side that not only have won just one of their last six league games, but have only won once away all season. Now Eastleigh are obviously odds on for this match, but the bet looks to be Eastleigh to win to nil. Eastleigh have been pretty strong defensively since Moor took over and they have conceded just 8 at home this season. Add that to the fact that Torquay have found the net just 4 times on their travels and you would be fairly confident of Eastleigh keeping a clean sheet. Eastleigh to win to nil is 17/10 with Coral.


 
Wrexham v Barrow

I am going to oppose Wrexham again. Yes they finally managed to score a couple of goals, but Bromley pushed them close and Barrow should be a much different proposition. As I mention above they should have come away with the 3 points on Saturday and they weren’t even at their best. The point did continue their great run of form though and they have the much stronger squad in my view. I would have them as slight favourites for this and the price of 2/1 with Bet365 for an away win is surprisingly big.


 
Altrincham v Bradford Park Avenue

At first glance wanting to have a bet in a game between 3rd from bottom and bottom would seem a strange one. Altrincham have 7 points and BPA have 4 points with both sides already detached from the rest of the division. Altrincham have only won once in the league and BPA’s points have all come via draws. Altrincham’s win was two games ago against Stalybridge who just happen to be the team who separate these two sides. So as you can tell we are talking about two of the weakest teams in the division. Most of the time you would want to leave these games well alone from a betting point of view, but here the prices make it a must bet. How on earth can Altrincham be made odds on shots to win a team against any team in the division is beyond me. BPA are 7/2 shots with Coral which is way too big as I would make them around the 15/8 mark. Granted they have only scored 2 away goals all season, but they played away at Gloucester on Saturday and were very unfortunate to come away with no points. Indeed BPA probably should have won the game. Now it is a slight concern they failed to score again, but I think that is more than factored in to the price and I am happy to take a chance on them building on Saturday’s fine performance by gaining a first win of the season.

Harrow look a big price at harlow to me, almost 3-1, they are playing well and scoring goals and reached the 1st round of the fa cup last week.their opponents harlow dont look anything special so I'm backing harrow at a good price to continue their recent form
 
 

Leaving the National League alone again tomorrow although Aldershot and Dover were on the shortlist.
Gosport v Basingstoke
I really hope this game goes ahead as Basingstoke look a fantastic price at a massive 19/4 with BetVictor. Gosport are in a right mess and I really wish I had backed Whitehawk to beat them at the weekend, but I was put off as the home side hadn't been in great form. It turns out Gosport players had gone unpaid although apparently that was sorted on Thursday. They have had a transfer embargo on them and although it looks like they can still reach the play-offs it is hard to see them doing so as clearly things aren't right at the club and they have lost 4 on the bounce. Basingstoke might be bottom, but getting Terry Brown in as manager could be a good move and they beat Oxford City 2-0 on Saturday. The price on an away win has already come in, but I would make it way shorter than it is and fancy them strongly.
Margate v Concord
Concord look a cracking bet as they bounced back on Saturday after a couple of defeats and they go to a Margate side who have lost 7 on the bounce now. Their money man is leaving the club so it would be fair to say most if not all the current players wont be their next season. That is clearly showing in their performances and they conceded 4 on Saturday which makes it 15 conceded in their last five games. Concord should be shorter than they are.
Bradford Park Avenue v Harrogate
Harrogate's form is hit a dip and they might struggle here after playing most of their game on Saturday with 10 men and then failing to beat Curzon who had gone down to 9 men. That effort would have taken a lot out of them and Bradford have the extra advantage of having played less than 30 minutes on Saturday as their game against Fylde was called off. Like Basingstoke they have changed their manager and it could well pay off against a struggling Harrogate side.
Curzon v FCUM
As I mention above Curzon ended up with just 9 men on the pitch on Saturday and although they won it will be tough on those players to go again just 48 hours later. FCUM have struggled at times in their first season in this league, but they have won three on the bounce now and they look a spot of value to make that four on Monday.
Ilkeston v Mickleover
I think it is worth opposing Ilkeston until the season ends and I certainly wasn't expecting to see them as odds on favourites again, which makes Mickleover a cracking bet. Ilkeston may have only lost 2-1 on Saturday, but by all accounts it was a very easy win for Ashton and it was only Ilkeston's keeper which kept the scores down. Mickleover are in the relegation zone, but they have been putting in good performances of late and they got three points against Hyde on Saturday. The fact they have something to play for should also work in our favour here and I am amazed they are 11/5 to get the three points.
East Thurrock United v Grays
Grays like Margate have had their chairman leave which meant their top scorer and vice captain left the club, which helps explain their dreadful form at the moment. It paid off opposing them on Saturday when they lost 3-1 and given this will be their 3rd game in such a short space of time they look almost certain to lose again. East Thurrock are going for the title so are very short, but I think it is worth chucking a few quid on the -3 handicap. Goal difference could be crucial at the top and so even if they get a comfortable advantage they will want to score as many as possible and it is easy to see this turning into a heafty scoreline.
Basingtoke and Concord are the Naps with Mickleover just behind them

I must admit I think Twitter is the best for keeping up with all that is going on. Most clubs have plenty of updates during the game so you get a real sense for what is going on. Much better than using any app or live scores website in my view.

Just wanted to highlight 1 of the points above as i feel if you operate a pay for tipping service you really ought to know a little better.
Kiev aren't out of season nor did they finish second on goal difference.
 
They are simply in a 3 month winter break and have therefore only played friendlies since. They do though sit second currently (on goal difference) but still have 10 games left in their campaign.
Not sure what difference this could make to anybodies betting but feel it should be corrected as it might make some sort of impact on a punters decision as to where to put his hard earned. 
Might seem a small thing but small things matter when betting and as mentioned i noticed the poster provides a paid for service so should be "more professional" when providing statistics and "facts"
Please don't take this the wrong way my intention isnt to offend but i have strong feelings on tipsters...particularly those that charge so would expect accuracy as a minimum.
 
regards

Kidderminster v Macclesfield
The home side need a miracle to stay up, but after two wins on the trot who knows what might happen. The beat Boreham Wood quite comfortably last weekend and then beat Eastleigh 3-2 in midweek. Confidence is a huge thing in football and those two wins will have given them plenty, it is also worth considering that even when they were losing it was usually by the odd goal. I have been unconvinced by Macclesfield for a while now and they only drew in the FA Trophy against Torquay last weekend. I think it is worth taking a punt on the home side to make it a hat-trick of wins at 12/5 with Bet365.   St Albans v Concord Rangers The home side are on a terrible run of form at the moment having lost their last four and games and they are bottom of the National League South. Granted they have played teams near the top, but Concord are unbeaten in five and they include draws at Ebbsfleet and Maidstone so they have faced tough teams as well. They look the better team and at odds against they look a decent bet.   Margate v Basingstoke and Sutton v Bath These two games should really both be home wins. I have written plenty about Margate in recent weeks and although they cost me a couple of weeks ago when only drawing, they bounced back with a win last week. The play-offs are probably out of reach as the teams around them have played fewer games, but they are building the foundations for a title bid next season. Bath are falling fast and although Sutton lost to Bognor in the FA Trophy on Tuesday they have been flying in the league and should win this. The double pays 1.6/1 with Marathon.   Enfield v Lewes Lewes might be bottom of the Ryman Premier, but they are in fantastic form at the moment. They are unbeaten in five and they have won three of them including a fantastic 3-1 win against 2nd place Dulwich on Wednesday night. Enfield have won three and lost three of their last six so are pretty inconsistent. Based on that Lewes have got a much better chance than their odds of 11/2 suggest and are well worth a punt.

Hi,
At first a little presentation: I've been doing professional sports betting for a long time, having also been working for different bookies and betting consulting companies. I'm not a one who is placing his bets at crappy bookies like Unibet, Bet365, Ladbrokes etc. (because of the limits they are  putting on you immediately) but especially at Pinnaclsports and other high limit bookies where you also are allowed to bet after winning a great deal of money.
 
As for tonight's game, my 1x2 & u/o 2,5 %-predictions are:
Sassuolo Roma 34 29 38 u/o 2,5 55 45
 
..and thus my choices are as follows:
Sassuolo +0,25 1,862 56% Pinnacle 4/10
Sassuolo Roma o2,25 2,01 52% Sbobet 3,5/10
 
I don't really like writing verbal arguments unless being able to give some very specific and significant information. Generally speaking, the analysis is done by a model that I've been developing, step by step, for my whole betting career. The model uses raw data and modifies the output by special factors (like injuries, motivational issues). Besides I watch a load of games from the leagues on which I wager in order to be able to use qualitative predicting methods as well.. and that all gives me roughly 4% yield in the betting markets with high limits.

Bromley v Southport
Bromley have finally stopped the rot with a draw against Eastleigh (were 2 up) and a win against Dover although that was helped by Dover going down to ten men. They do have the advantage of having had nearly two weeks off, but Southport's great run under their new manager shows no signs of stopping. Only Eastleigh have managed to beat them since he took over and they have won every other league game including beating Wrexham twice over Christmas. Included in that run was a 5-3 win in the reverse fixture and I think the fact there were eight goals in that game leads us to the best bet in this game. Neither team keeps many clean sheets and both have goals in them as that match shows so given I think Southport will win I think the value play is backing them to win and both teams to score which is 17/4 with Stan James.
 
Macclesfield v Halifax
Another side who are flying for a change of manager are Halifax and they look a completely different side under Jim Harvey. They won at Lincoln on Boxing Day and were unlucky not to do the double of them as they were much the better team on Saturday in the revers fixture. In between that they beat Wrexham. Now Macclesfield moved up into the play-off places after beating Tranmere last weekend, but they had fortune on their side as Tranmere should have got at least a point and had a goal disallowed which should have stood. I am not sure they are playing as well as their form suggests and although they are rightly favourites the 100/30 on offer with William Hill on an away win is too big give their current form.
 
Wrexham v Woking
Woking have had a bizarre season. They had a great start and were the first team to beat Forest Green, but after that they couldn't buy a win and dropped so far down the table that it looked like they would be in a relegation scrap. However they have managed to turn it around and they have won six of their last eight games and losing just once. Losing Dan Holman is a bit of a blow, but they have plenty of confidence at the moment which can't be said about their rivals on Saturday. As I point out above they have lost their last three games and they have actually lost four of their last five with their only win in the league coming against Torquay. Woking are actually four points clear of them in the table now and although they have played two games more it would have been near impossible to think those positions would have been possible a few weeks back. Marathon go a rather bizarre, but big price of 37/13 on an away win and that is well worth taking.
 
Bath v Maidstone
Maidstone had a poor run a few weeks ago as they lost four out of five games, but they have managed to bounce back with a couple of 2-1 victories over Eastbourne and Margate. Although they have lost their last two away games, there away form up to that point had been very strong and they had better form on their travels than at home. They go to a Bath side on Saturday who are in woeful form. They have lost five of their last seven league games and although their only win in that time did come against Champions elect Ebbsfleet, that is looking like a bit of a fluke result. If Maidstone hadn't lost their last two away games I would have been tempted to make them a max bet, but even so at 7/5 they are the best bet of the weekend.
 
Chelmsford v Weston-Super-Mare
The home side here are currently bottom of the form table having not won in their last six games although only a late Dartford goal stopped them getting the three points on Saturday. Even so they are struggling at the moment and have only won three times at home this season. Weston on the other hand are in good form at the moment and are unbeaten in their last five matches. I just can't understand why Chelmsford are odds on in places to win this especially when you consider Weston's form has been better away from home this season. Again Marathon are the best price and again it is a strange on of 54/19.

Barrow v Boreham Wood Even though Barrow's manager got sacked and Paul Cox has taken over, their home form has been very strong. They have only lost twice at home and they beat Woking last week in Cox's first game in charge. They host a Boreham Wood side who have got a couple of very good draws against Tranmere and Lincoln, but their problem is scoring goals and they are averaging less than a goal a game. Barrow should continue their strong home form on Saturday and look a fair price at BetVictor's 29/20.   Halifax v Guiseley I didn't think there was ever going to be apoint this season where I would want to back Halifax, but they look a very different side since Darren Kelly was sacked and Jim Harvey took over. Under Kelly they couldn't defend to save their lives and although they have still let in 3 goals in their two games under Harvey, that is a massive improvement. They put four past Gateshead when having ten men for over half of the match and put the same amount past Dover last week. In that sort of form they should fancy their chances about beating a Guiseley side who have only won once away all season. Marathon's 8/5 looks a fair price.   Kettering v Cambridge City Into the Southern League for the final and best bet of the weekend. Kettering have strengthened in recent weeks and their team looks very strong now. They are unbeaten in three and they beat league leaders Poole last weekend and deserved the three points. They look capable of going on a little run now and will fancy their chances of beating a Cambridge side who have lost four of their last six. To be fair to them the two wins did come against two sides in the top 5 in the table, but improved Kettering should have too much for them and Boyelsports go 20/21 about a home win.

Altrincham v Barrow
Given Barrow cost me a lot of money last week my initial thought was to stay clear of this game. I then saw the price the home side were though and I had to have a bet on them. The danger is that Barrow are getting their away form together as they have won and drawn one having lost their first four on the road. Even so there is no way they should be such strong favourites for this game and arguably Altrincham should probably just about be market leaders. Granted the were poor in their last home game to Braintree, but you take that out and their home form has been strong. They even managed to finally win away from home last weekend albeit against a struggling Boreham Wood side. 23/10 (BetVictor) about a home win is simply too big and has to be backed.
Halifax v Cheltenham
I knew it would come eventually and this weekend sees me back Cheltenham for the first time. Halifax announced their new manager on Thursday and I must admit I Darren Kelly wasn't someone I was aware off. I looked him up and found he had lasted 9 games in charge of Oldham and was sacked a couple of weeks ago having had a 2 year contract. Now that doesn't strike me as someone I would want to be managing my club even if it is a drop of a couple of leagues. To be fair he will have Jim Harvey to help him, but they have a massive task of trying to keep the side in this division. I am not sure we see much of an improvement in results and it couldn't be much tougher than facing the team third in the table. Granted I am not sure Cheltenham have been performing as well as their position in the table suggests, but they should have enough to see of Halifax and I would make them odds on to win this so the 11/10 with Hills has to be taken.
Tranmere v Bromley
Tranmere got a last minute winner against Cheltenham last weekend in what by all accounts was a dire game. They host a red hot Bromley side and a red hot striker in Moses Emmanuel. Now most of Bromley's wins have come against the lesser sides in the division, but they have beaten 2nd place Gateshead and the ease of their victories is impressive. I had a high view of Bromley going into the start of the season and full expected them to go well. Tranmere have been very hit and miss so far and I think they are still adjusting to life in this division. I am surprised Bromley are 7/2 with Betway and that has to be a sporting play.
AFC Fylde v AFC Telford
Rob Smith was angry at his Telford players yet again last weekend as they went out of the FA Cup against Kettering from the league below. He didn't hold back and said that the players weren't good enough to play National League football. He must be regretting moving their now as Steve Kittrick has clearly left the club in a right mess. This weekend they travel to second place Fylde and they are in good form at the moment. They should be able to take full advantage of a poor Telford side and I think they are worth backing at 11/10 (Paddy Power) on the -1 handicap.
Grays v Kingstonian
I was impressed with Grays when I saw them earlier in the season and thought they looked potential title challengers. They are going through a little blip at the moment though as they haven't won in three and they have lost two of those. They lost to a struggling Leatherhead 3-0 on Wednesday night and they had some crucial players missing as well. Quite why they are playing again so soon I am not sure, but as Kingstonian played on Monday that has to be a pretty big edge. The other thing to note is that if you take out the loss in the FA Cup last Saturday they are actually in really good form at the moment. They have won 4 of their last 5 and bounced backed from that defeat in the Cup to beat Hendon 1-0 on Monday night. They look overpriced at a general 5/2.
Treble
After nailing the six fold in the FA Cup last week I am looking to land a treble which pays just under 2/1 with Bet365. AFC Fylde obviously go in. Margate continued their upturn in form in the FA Cup last week and should be too strong for Weston-Super-Mare. Finally Dulwich should have little trouble in beating a VCD Athletic side who are yet to win this season.
 

Just sticking up the tips for now will add reasoning if I get chance. Gosport (Naps can't work out why they are such a big price against a struggling Basingstoke) Harrogate (started the season strongly for a change and BPA not looked great so far Eastleigh/Bath double (Torquay were really bad on Saturday and 6/6 Bath go to 5/5 loses Weston) Gainsborough (in good form and go to an Alfreton team who still can't win) Lincoln (still think Gateshead are over achieveing) Boreham Wood (look over priced given how they have performed in the league so far)

4 games for me this monday : - Altrincham to beat Southport - Aldershot draw no bet against Braintree - Bath to beat Weston - Maidstone to beat Chelmsford ( i saw stones game against Eastbourne and they deserve at least a draw , they´re in a good form and i think they will win today )