thecurlyone1

Wow. Thanks for your time on this Harry. The 100 bet mark looms... We can say he will have a huge yield even if it's just 100 bets and taken 100 Saturdays! 

Sat
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BREMEN v hertha 7-0-0 , odds - 2.62 [Bremen have scored 2+ goals in all 7]

LEVERKUSEN v hannover 8-0-0 , 1.30 [L'kusen have scored 2+ in 7/8]

BARCELONA v ath madrid 7-1-0 , 1.53

GENK v kortrijk 5-1-0 , 1.70 [Genk have scored 2+ in 5/6]


Sun
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ASTERAS v levadiakos 5-0-1 , 1.57

RIO AVE v setubal 9-0-0 , 1.91

Hi people,
This is a system of betting in soccer...a simple one, based on table positions alone. All this years my conclusions are that if you want something well done, do it simple.
So here are the rules:
Starting bank 500 units
%of bank betting: 5%
At the end of the session i calculate the next stake value, respect always the 5% of the bank.
so here are the first selections: H(HOME); A(AWAY)
Augsburg - Frankfurt H-2.00
Munster - Erfurt A-4.35
Leuven - St. Liege H-3.55
Westerlo - Waregem H-2.60
Alcorcon - Valladolid A-3.90
Cordoba - Leganes A-2.85
Panthrakikos - Panionios H-2.50
Huddersfield - Cardiff H-2.10
Rotherham - Charlton H-1.91
Bradford - Fleetwood A-3.30
Coventry - Scunthorpe A-4,05
 
 
 
 

According to my usual source (which tends not to quote bookie or odds) today's selection is "Under six Asian Cards in Roma v Frosinone".
I'd expect that to be with 365, in which case they've moved the line to under 5.5 at odds of 1.9. (So 6 cards becomes a loss rather than a push.)
Up to you if you still want to follow or look for a more palatable way of doing so elsewhere. (Under 5.5 is 11/12 with 888 according to OC.)

I believe that home wins sometimes have value. This is a value relative style of betting. Based on stats only and the formula of goal difference. I only bet if the home team have more than 50% of probabilities of winning and the value of the equation is equal or more than 10%.
Initial bank=500 units
Type of betting= Flat betting
Unit of stake=10
Games
HOME   AWAY RATING %H ODD VALUE PICK
Augsburg - Frankfurt 12 65% 2,00 30% 1
Eibar - Malaga 4 53% 2,45 30% 1

Great weekend for the LTD. Eventually back into the black with this one! Even the Mechelen game that lost had a last minute equaliser.
23.01. bel mechelen genk 3.4 -£24.00 1 1 23.01. bel st truiden westerlo 3.5 £9.50 1 2 23.01. sco celtic st johnstone 7.4 £9.50 3 1 23.01. sco dundee utd kilmarnock 3.9 £9.50 5 1 24.01. bel st liege gent 3.5 £9.50 0 3 24.01. ger frankfurt wolfsburg 3.75 £9.50 3 2 24.01. ger schalke bremen 4.3 £9.50 1 3 24.01. ita juventus roma 4 £9.50 1 0 24.01. tur glenclerbirligi antalyaspor 3.55 £9.50 1 0 24.01. tur sivasspor eskisehirspor 3.95 £9.50 1 2           £61.50                 ------ ------ OVERALL TOTAL ---- £20.00 ---

Clean sweep this weekend. Slowly clawing back that large loss. Hopefully get a winning week next week and get into the black with this.
06.02. ita palermo fiorentina 3.7 £9.50 1 3 16.01. tur kasimpasa gaziantepspor 4.1 £9.50 1 2 16.01. tur kayserispor osmanlispor 3.4 £9.50 1 0 16.01. tur galatasaray sivasspor 4.6 £9.50 3 1 17.01. fra caen marseille 3.4 £9.50 1 3 ------ ------ WEEKLY TOTAL ---- £47.50 ---               ------ ------ OVERALL TOTAL ---- -£41.50 ---

60 mins 

This week's selection is 1 point on Wolves to take most corners v Cardiff at 11/20 with Hills,
A bit of a short one but Kev obviously thinks the true odds are even less. Probably nowhere else to go for this bet as it's not a live game and the spread firms aren't quoting corner markets.

yes the original idea of the thread was . who was ever highest rated at HT , you back blindly 
what i personally was waiting till 60 mins , ( just before subs came on ) and then backing highest rating ...what you will find is the hair drier treatment will be working at HT 
but some where along the line i felt that 'Whoscored' changed their rating , and what was happening wasnt transfering on to the pitch
 
but im more than happy to revive the tread and see where we go 
 

Tues 12th and Weds 13th Jan
There is a full midweek Premier League programme this Tuesday and Wednesday and Lawro is offering his predictions. He sees team value backing Newcastle and Sunderland -

Tues 12th
Newcastle v Man Utd
5.25/1.85
Lawro: 1-1
Newcastle +0.5
2.2
188Bet

Weds 13th
Swansea v Sunderland
1.85/5.45
Lawro: 1-1
Sunderland +0.5
2.19
188Bet

TWO bets @ 2 points = 4 points

Hopefully I'll be able to verify this later but I believe today's pick is under 7 cards in Levante v Vallecano at 1.95 with 365.
I think both the line and the price may have shortened (one of the perils of not having access to the selections on a Friday night via the Ipad edition)!

Small loss this week, but two draws which would have been good (or great!) profit if they had come in. Unlucky.
02.01. WEST HAM liverpool 4.20 £30.40 2 0 02.01. WATFORD man city 5.30 -£10.00 1 2 02.01. ESPANYOL barcelona 19.00 -£10.00 0 0 03.01. PALACE chelsea 4.10 -£10.00 0 3 03.01. VALENCIA madrid 6.20 -£10.00 2 2             TOTAL OVERALL     £352.57  

Sat 2nd Jan to Sun 3rd Jan 2016
According to Lawro's forecasts, there is team value backing Bournemouth, Norwich and Watford in the first weekend of 2016

Leicester - Bournemouth
2.03/4.25
Lawro: 1-1
Bournemouth +0.5
1.98
188Bet
 
Norwich - Southampton
3.26/2.5
Lawro: 2-1
Norwich +0.25
1.87
188Bet
 
Watford - Man City
5.2/1.81
Lawro: 1-1
Watford +0.5
2.25
188Bet

THREE bets @ 2 points = 6 points

A couple for next few days. Liverpool have just had a good win, so Sunderland are almost a certainty!
29.12. LEICESTER man city 4.40 £32.30 30.12. SUNDERLAND liverpool 5.90 £46.55

Have bought today's and, whilst there's a column from Kev, there's no bets.
Either he's enjoying the festivities or he's licking his wounds after last week's blow out!  

19.12. COLOGNE dortmund 7.20 £58.90 2 1 19.12. HANNOVER bayern 17.00 -£10.00 0 1 20.12. WATFORD liverpool 4.40 £32.30 3 0             TOTAL OVERALL     £362.17  

3 for today
 
1 pt under 1.5 FH gls everton v leicester 21/20 corals
1 pt first goal before 33 min Stoke v Palace 11/10 Boyles
0.5 pt under 2.5 gls Celtic v Motherwell 12/5  365

Another profitable week.
13.12. VILLAREAL madrid 5.10 £38.95 1 0 13.12. ASTON VILLA arsenal 7.00 -£10.00 0 2             TOTAL OVERALL     £280.97    

I'm affraid my excel was wrong in a cuple of formulas... so i have to test it back again
The result for this posts are:

BETS 27 WIN 26   96.30% STAKED 828.99 PROFIT 85.49 ROI 10.31% but i can't take the credit, maybe it was just luck, a need a few days to reorganize the data and i'll be back.
tks!

8/12/2015 ASCOLI TERNANA 1-1 4.53 22.08 7.20 31.83 5.13 W 4.80 1065.75 8/12/2015 MODENA BARI 1-1 3.67 27.25 7.00 31.97 5.33 W 4.98 1070.73

7/12/2015 FC VOLUNTARI ASA TARGU MURES 1-1 3.46 28.92 7.20 31.69 5.11 W 4.78 1060.95

A smashing weekend for the system. £160 profit from this weekend alone should put me in a good position to deal with any long losing streaks for the rest of the season
05.12. STOKE man city 6.00 £47.50 2 0 05.12. GLADBACH bayern 10.50 £90.25 3 1 05.12. WOLFSBURG dortmund 4.30 -£10.00 1 2 05.12. GRANADA atl madrid 8.00 -£10.00 0 2 05.12. VALENCIA barcelona 10.50 -£10.00 1 1 06.12. NEWCASTLE liverpool 6.40 £51.30 2 0             TOTAL       £252.02  

last one was rotherdam -wolves... sorry
5/12/2015 BRIGHTON CHARLTON 1-0 4.95 20.20 7.00 30.72 5.12 W 4.79 1028.68 5/12/2015 BURNLEY PRESTON 1-0 9.83 10.18 7.00 30.86 5.14 W 4.81 1033.49 5/12/2015 LEEDS HULL CITY 0-1 3.77 26.53 7.20 31.00 5.00 W 4.68 1038.16 5/12/2015 ROTHERHAM WOLVES 1-1 3.58 27.90 7.60 31.14 4.72 W 4.41 1042.58

swansea AH corners 0 
 
@ 1.9 with 365