thecurlyone1

Anyone interested in this for another season? I suppose I could be tempted to do it again if there's a bit of demand, especially as I'm trying to beat him at his own game in the "Nice work..." thread! 
Reminder of how last season unfolded here, first selection to follow.
https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/157730-kevin-pullein-saturday-picks-201617/?do=findComment&comment=2587079
 

I am passing by after a long hiatus and have only just seen this post. *
Just want to tell people about one of the members of this site. Well he may be an ex member not sure.
 
His name is Alistair and he pmd me a few years ago -I'm sure admin can check and they can read the pms if they wish.
 
Anyway,to cut a long story short Alistair has been betting accumulators on long term markets ever since. He and I have swapped up to 1000 emails over the years and we've had our collective ups and downs.
This season Alistair looks like making a £25,000 profit from a bank of just £5000.
 
Now obviously I'm not claiming that this is in any way normal . Nor am I implying that I will make anything like the % he will make but I am saying that this was the most straightforward season I can remember and it's a great pity that no one -or hardly anyone - listens to the likes of me.
Because most people have just missed out on an opportunity to make £1000s.
 
* I scrolled up from the bottom so havnt seen any other responses to my post.
 
If by chance anyone on here still wants to bet me that I can't make £20,000 from betting in a year I'm willing to compromise over the bank and I will attempt it with £30,000 starting at any point in the year as I bet in the summer as well.
edited to add that ,thinking about it,the bet would need to be at least £2000 and probably closer to £5000 since that person will effectively learn how to make £20,000 from sports betting.
A bargain Id say especially if I only make £19,000 and they win £5000!
But my bets would have to remain a secret between myself and the other party though they can of course report the outcome.
 
Oh yes. Since Alistair will have made his money from ordinary bookmakers let's have no more nonsense about bookies not allowing such bets/stakes/whatever.
Cheers

This is probably more about strategy than a system though many of the bets are likely to be drawn from different approaches I take that could be described as systems of sorts.
The inspiration for the title is a tongue in cheek reference to Kevin Pullein who effectively writes two weekly columns for the Racing Post, typically involving one bet a week. Nice work if you can get it, but he does, of course, show a decent profit season after season.
I'm going to see how I fare setting myself the objective of posting one bet a week, a selection that I am particularly confident offers clear value. Let's see just how easy a gig (or not, as the case may be) it is.
I will have the advantage of being able to bet on any sport and on any day of the week, rather than being limited to football on a Saturday. I will, though, have some difficult decisions to make about when to pass and when to post.
There will be a bet most weeks though I reserve the right to pass when nothing makes sufficient appeal. Assuming that happens I may occasionally post 2 selections in a week to keep up the "one a week" average.
Starts tomorrow. The betting week will run from Thursday to Wednesday (Thursday being the start of the weekend fixtures in some sports).
Update 29/08/17 - the approach for the thread has settled into a typical routine of one post a week containing one or more (usually two) fixed odds selections. That will continue in the current style with selections posted at least an hour ahead of the scheduled start time.
I will now also look to post once a week with a particularly strong spreadbetting selection (or selections, though I'd expect a single bet more often than not). The deadline for these will be 30 minutes in advance of the start time (to allow me to include bets on football goalscorers when the post-line up markets have formed). Stakes will vary depending on the volatility of the market, I will be backing the selections to at least £1 per point of the suggested stake. Let's see how it unfolds but it should be no great stretch given the proportion of my bets that are spread bets,

Assuming no more bets (I'll update if there are) I make this season's final figures as follows. These are as previously posted barring a minor correction to the advised stakes figures.
This season (level stakes): 20 winners and a push from 35 bets, a profit of 7.64 points with a yield of 21.84%
This season (advised stakes): 12 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 23 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 4.46 points with a yield of 18.96%
Overall (level stakes) +31.55 with a yield of 21.91% from 144 bets.
This doesn't tally with the Racing Post's own assessment. They highlighted his completion of a 21st successive season of profitable tipping by stating that "since August, he has advised 21 winners in 35 tips for an overall profit of 5.79 points on 25 staked (23.16% ROI)".
Not sure of the reason for the discrepancy. They may have classed the push as a winner. We may disagree on how many bets were staked to half point rather than one. Obviously, I'd trust me over them! 

Rotherham "lost" 6-7 so we were just one corner away from a winning bet.
This season (level stakes): 20 winners and a push from 33 bets, a profit of 9.64 points with a yield of 29.22%
This season (advised stakes): 12 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 21 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 5.47 points with a yield of 24.31%
Overall (level stakes) +33.55 with a yield of 23.63% from 142 bets.

Just the one yellow for a comfortable win.
This season (level stakes): 19 winners and a push from 30 bets, a profit of 10.54 points with a yield of 35.15%
This season (advised stakes): 12 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 18 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 5.92 points with a yield of 28.19%
Overall (level stakes) +34.45 with a yield of 24.78% from 139 bets.

JUVENTUS v palermo 4-1

CELTIC v motherwell 2-0

REAL MADRID v espanyol 2-0

DIN ZAGREB v belupo 2-0

PLZEN v pribram 1-0

PSV v nijmegen 3-1

As the odds indicated all 6 won ....


Sun
---

FEHNERBACHE v kasimpasa 6-0-1 , 1.45

BASEL v lausanne 8-0-0 , 1.22

FERRIERA v setubal 9-1-0 , 2.40

LEGIA v ruch 5-1-0 , 1.25

ROMA v torino 9-0-1 , 1.40

PSG v toulouse 7-0-0 , 1.20

Apologies, after almost forgetting last week I managed to go one better this week! 
In my defence, I was busier than usual and I'll try to avoid a repeat.
The pick was 0.5 point stake on <3.5 goals in Celtic v Motherwell at 5/4, which won courtesy of a 2-0 scoreline.
This season (level stakes): 14 winners and a push from 25 bets, a profit of 3.97 points with a yield of 15.88%
This season (advised stakes): 11 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 14 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 2.2 points with a yield of 12.22%
Overall (level stakes) +27.87 with a yield of 20.8% from 134 bets.

Winner this week,
This season (level stakes): 12 winners and a push from 21 bets, a profit of 3.82 points with a yield of 18.19%
This season (advised stakes): 9 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 12 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 3.12 points with a yield of 20.8%
Overall (level stakes) +27.72 with a yield of 21.33% from 130 bets.

of the others mentioned TOULOUSE drew 1-1 , BENFICA won 2-0 , AUSTRIA VIENNA won 2-0 and BREMEN drew 1-1.

I think i'll just stick to the basics and leave 'alternative' bets to those who may fancy a try at such..


SUN
---

OLYMPIAKOS v panetolikos 4-0-0 , 1.18

BARCELONA v espanyol 7-0-0 , 1.10 [win to nil has came in 6/7]

SPORTING v braga 6-0-0 , 1.40 [Sporting have scored 2 in 5/6]

Argentina - LANUS v san lorenzo - 9-1-0 , 2.10

For today, we have time of first goal 32nd minute or before, 0.5 point evens with Boyles, in the Hull v Crystal Palace game.

Nice to see the system behaving itself now haha. A winner for each part this weekend which is all good
10.12. LEICESTER man city 5.30 £81.70 4.10 -£10.00 4 1 10.12. COLOGNE dortmund 5.50 -£20.00 4.50 £33.25 1 1 ------ WEEKLY TOTAL ------ £61.70 ------ £23.25 ------                 ------ OVERALL TOTAL ------ £104.40   -£139.15 ------

A  start with a profit was important and succeded. Although a full stake loss in Dnipro match, it was able to reach positive. Tomorrow will be a busy day for Scalpy.

Hello,
After a few weeks of simulating and testing, I decided to put my system in use. My picks are a result of a combination of statistics, knowledge, and mathematical analysis of the odds. Only pre-match picks will be used and there will be no live-betting unless I see a great chance which does not happen quite often. Only picks like 1x2, double chance, asian handicap, over/under etc. will be used unless again I see a great opportunity. I will bet almost everyday since I will not be only betting on football but also on basketball. Basketball picks will consist of 1x2, over/under etc. I am both betting on Euroleague and NBA and for those bets I use predictions from trusted sources and I evaluate each prediction before I actually place my bet. By the way, I would like to state that my first language is not English (I am from Turkey). I apologies if I do any unintentional  mistake.
For my bankroll management, I am planning to use a flat betting system. I will bet 2% of my bankroll on each bet. Some of the bets will be 1% if I am not certain about them. One more note, I will keep the bankroll at a certain level for every month. What I mean by this is that at exactly 8th of every month, I will have 500 (for example) units of money in my bankroll. If I have 550, I will withdraw 50, If I have 490, I will deposit 10.
I will place my bets using Tempobet only (due to the restrictions on my country, I do not have access to the bookmakers you are familiar with). My odds will be from that bookmaker.

You're probably right. Only 3 times from 18 matches has the away side won by more than one goal so definitely worth looking at. I'll add it into my selections from now on. Cheers Curly.

Better this week.
26.11. BURNLEY man city 11.00 -£20.00 6.00 -£10.00 1 2 26.11. EIN. FRANKF dortmund 5.60 £87.40 4.40 -£10.00 2 1 27.11. SOCIEDAD barcelona 6.80 -£20.00 5.10 £38.95 1 1   WEEKLY TOTAL   £47.40   £18.95                   ------ OVERALL TOTAL ------ -£23.30   -£142.40 ------

This week's selection is time of first goal 34th minute or before in Ipswich v QPR, 0.5pt at 23-20 with Boyles.

Winner this week with an early Derby goal landing the odds.
This season (level stakes): 7 winners and a push from 12 bets, a profit of 2.37 points with a yield of 19.74%
This season (advised stakes): 6 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 6 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 2.04 points with a yield of 22.7%
Overall (level stakes) +26.27 with a yield of 21.71% from 121 bets.

amkar-lok. moskow under 2.5 1.37
st truiden-westerloo over 2.5 1.77
doncaster-colchester under 2.5 2.12
panionios-olimpiakos over2.5 1.89
avellino-spezia under 2.5 1.57
basel-luzern over 2.5 1.40

Decent first week. Gladbach led for a good while vs barca and Ludogorets missed a penalty when 2-1 down (and of course PSG make it 1-3 a minute later lol) so could have been a stonking week but happy to start with profit.
27.09. zagreb juventus D 6.2 -£10.00 0 4 28.09. celtic man city D 6 £47.50 3 3 28.09. ludogorets psg D 5 -£10.00 1 3 28.09. GLADBACH barcelona H 7.8 -£10.00 1 2 ------ WEEKLY TOTAL ------ ------ £17.50 ------               ------ OVERALL TOTAL ------ ------ £17.50 ------

Sorry, but I have to skip this weekend. I'm migrating to a new database and data structure that will be more robust and need to adjust some things. I should be back next week.
I'll also provide the update from my last posts soon.

This season in English Premier League must be super-interesting because six or seven FCs will fight for the title – such a thing is only in EPL and that’s why to watch out the competition is pleasure. Will be good cooperation with Mourinho and Ibrahimovic at Manchester United? Сan Conte return Chelsea to the highest level? Will Guardiola use his famous tick-taka at Manchester Citi? Whether Wenger will lead Arsenal to the trophy this season? Will Leicester led by Ranieri hold occupied positions? Will Klopp use his favorite over attacking football at Liverpool? Will Tottenham cause fight between long-term leaders of Premier League? There are lots of intriguing questions and we will know the answers only in the next spring.

And now let’s look at the table concerning corners after seven weeks. Who is a leader? Who is an outsider? Which clubs are worth betting to win money and which are not?

October break due to national teams matches is the best time to recall to memory how teams started the championship. Duration of seven weeks is not little and tendencies are very prone to repeat. So, which clubs won more the other ones on corners?




It is expectable to place to the number of leaders favorites of the tournament – Arsenal and Chelsea (6 wins in 7 matches every) and also Tottenham and MU (5 wins every). It’s surprisingly to see among leaders Bournemouth, which has analogical indicators as Tottenham and Manchester United. But if to look at the table below on results of last season we will see:





Despite Bournemouth is on 15th summary place in EPL table, it is the forth on corners even ahead of MS, Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester – the champion of Premier League. And besides, Bournemouthhalf of its defeats on corners (if to be accurate – 6) was defeated by much higher levels teams as MU (twice), Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and Leicester. As we see, tendency is going to continue in this season that’s why it’s a good idea to look at bets on Bournemouth win on corners in matches not against top-clubs.


  So, let’s move from leaders to outsiders:





There are no lots of surprises also – teams from below part of the table more often than others lost matches on corners. There is kind of sudden to see here Leicester – the champion of last season. Although let’s look at summary table of last season:




Unexpectedly, but Leicester lost majority of matches on cornerseven in really lucky for itself season. Leicesterplayers overcame its neighbors on quantity of wins on corners (16 VS 9-11) however 21 defeats for leader is quite enough. There are little changes in the rest.Watford is an outsider like at last season so you can bet on opponent’s win without any doubts.

 
Obviously, the result of a match on corners depends on 2 factors – how many corners a team takes and how many corners let take to rivals.


Let us look who is among leaders of the tournament on the first indicator:




Leaders on number of wins on corners were noted also here: Tottenham, Chelsea and MU are ones of the leaders on individual total corners too. Liverpool also takes place above the table – the team was the best on this indicator last season. Regard to Crystal Palaceis seemed to be that the team which jump over its head because at the moment “eagles” take  on average approximately more than 1 corner than in the season of 2015-16. Thus, it is more perspective to bet on individual total of Liverpool than on win of “red” (despite they must approach to leaders on quantity of wins).

What teams are expected to see among losers on corners?


It was hard to be mistaken here – there are Watford, Swansea and Hull. Herewithfirst two clubs took analogical places in lower top-five in last season. The tendency is saved that’s why you can try to bet on individual total under at the matches with their participation.

Have found out who takes the biggest quantity of corners let’s move to the teams which let opponents take corners the most seldom:


There are not any special sensations – among leaders are Arsenal, MU, Chelsea and also Southampton. The only thing is unusual is that the teams allow opponents to get such as little quantity of corners. Look at how the best teams looked like on this indicator according to the results of last season:


Currently, Arsenal overcomes on 1.5 corners MU which was the best team of last year on this indicator. Should be admitted that Arsenal improved own results on 2.5 corners. Chelsea plays better now than it was last year on average on 2 missed corners per match and Southampton on 1.5 in accordance. Only MU roughly stayed on the same positions, they just have reduced quantity of corners close to its gates on average on 0.5. I think that indicators will be approximately equal to last-year ones to the end of the season. And precisely, the number 2.14 of “missed” corners will increase to 4 or even 5 at Arsenal.


Wehave analyzed the best teams so let’s move to the teams which let rivals take corners most often:


If to take a look at the table there are minimum 2 surprises. Firstly, Stoke City is a leader on this indicator – approximately 9 corners taken by opponents per match. This indicator is catastrophical. Wattford is the worst club on results of last season on missed corners because the team let opponents take corners on average 6.5 times per a match. You may ask where is Wattford in this year table? “Hornets” are placed in the middle of the table on this indicator letting opponents take on average 5 corners. Indicators of  Burnley and especially Stock City will decline that’s why it is very sensible to bet on individual total of their opponents if it will be raised.


From partial let’s go to general. Let’s look in which team matches were taken most corners.


And immediately, for clarity, let’s look how things were in last season:

We see that right 6 teams had average total approximately 11.5 corners per a match. For example, Stoke is today 14.29, Crystal Palace is 13 and Tottenham is 12.43 what is quite a lot. Overestimated total of Stoke is explained with big number of opponent corners (this indicator will decline).Crystal Palace has taken 6.5 corners per a game and usually opponents take the same quantity in a match, but there were near 5.5 in last season. And Tottenham covers its last year norm taking on average roughly 8 per a match with average quantity 6.5 in last season (this indicator is going to decline).

There is an interesting thing among the teams in whose matchesare taken very little corners:

As we see, Southampton and Arsenal are leaders on this indicator.I have partially explained the causes of this low total in matches of the gunners (small quantity of corner opponents) and Southampton’s situation is much more interesting. Till now the saints have taken and missed on 27 corners. This is on average 3.86 corners per a match. These indicators are dramatically low and undoubtedly will grow up. Should be noticed that Swansea has minimum average total corners per match at the results of last season and it was approximately 9.5 corners. Thus we can see that teams from the table showed above have huge reserve in this direction. For example, there were taken on average little more 10.5 corners in matches of Arsenal and Watford in last season and in matches of Southampton and West Ham is approximately 11in accordance.
Having analyzed current state of affairs in this season and having compared it with the previous one we revealed some tendencies and tried to forecast how deals of some teams are going to be in further. I hope that our review was useful for you. For analysis were used data of the site http://corner-stats.com

1 point each on Southampton +1 AH cards v Sunderland at evens and Man U +1 AH cards v Hull at 17/20, both with 365

Following on from the original thread started by Muppet77 3 years ago.
https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/128681-kevin-pullein-saturday-picks-18-yield-96-bets/?do=findComment&comment=127964
Record at the end of last season was: 21 winners and 1 push from 37 bets, a profit of 4.83 points with a yield of 13.04% and overall +23.91 with a yield of 21.93% from 109 bets.
This season gets underway with 1 point on Swansea +3 corners v Burnley at 10/11 with PP
Was already 5/6 by the time I backed it though the change is still to be reflected on Oddschecker. I topped up on >4 corners for Swansea at the 13/10 on offer as that looks big to me. The extent to which their prices are out of line with the market reflect the difference of opinion between the spread firms, with one firm only making Burnley favourites by 0-1 corners and another going 1.5 to 2.5. There's a great bet to be had in there somewhere if you're able to take an educated view.