thecurlyone1

Yes, unlucky to only come away with a push there. Last time I’d checked I thought it was in the bag!

Another winner this week.
4 winners from 6 bets, 1.7 points up with an ROI of 28.33%
All bets still advised to 1 point so far so no difference between advised and level stakes.

Under 12 Asian total corners Dundee v Hibernian, 1pt at 9-10 with 365.

After 7 games I am back where I started but still a small proffit. +6%.
Since almost all leagues played just a few games, very hard to find games for my strategy.
8. Ostersund - Malmo 2 @ 2.11
9. Niigata - Zweigen 2 @ 2.72
 
 

Another winner this week, with Bradford comfortably gaining most corners.
3 winners from 5 bets, 0.8 points up with an ROI of 16%
All bets advised to 1 point so far so no difference between advised and level stakes as yet.

Cheers H

As I promised, I start today my strategy.. All the selections will be based on something similar with what I explained on previous posts,
The stake is 1 unit  for each game. Will be only 1,x,2, over or under  (because I do not have AH odds on my software yet). 
1. Osijek - Lok. Zagreb 2 @ 5.30 
2. Avai - Figueirense 2 @ 4.45.
 
 
 

Many football rating methods are compiled on a match-by-match basis in real time, inasmuch a ratings is assessed for a game at hand, then using the result of said game, the rating is adjusted accordingly. The most recent match therefore has perhaps too much of an influence on how the new rating moves.
This approach presented here also uses past results to calculate the outcome, but it looks at ALL previous game results and treats them as equally important. Trends therefore are not picked up, whichever way a team's form is heading is totally ignored. A good or bad thing? . . . let's find out.
I'm using neural/genetic machine learning to process season-to-date league results to find the best fit of correct home, draw, away predictions to then apply to the next set of fixtures. In order allow the algorithms enough relevant information and data it is thought necessary to employ only where a league season is half completed.
Other caveats include no leagues of more than 20 teams so as not to overwhelm the net (and take far longer to process). No leagues with too few teams either where teams may play each other more than twice ~ nothing confuses artificial intelligence more than encountering the same situation with different outcomes, e.g. United v City showing one home win and one away win.
Having churned through a few leagues here's what it gives for this weekend; (odds are Oddsportal average odds from 50 odd bookies)
CHILE               18-Aug-18 16:00 San Luis U. Espanola A 2.57 3.28 2.59 18-Aug-18 19:00 Antofagasta Union La Calera nobet 1.94 3.54 3.57 18-Aug-18 21:30 U. De Chile O'Higgins A 1.64 4.01 4.51 19-Aug-18 00:00 Everton Huachipato H 2.04 3.27 3.52 19-Aug-18 16:00 Deportes Iquique Colo Colo A 3.19 3.51 2.05 19-Aug-18 19:00 U. De Concepcion Deportes Temuco H 1.83 3.43 3.99 19-Aug-18 21:30 U. Catolica Curico Unido H 1.72 3.57 4.45 SWEDEN               18-Aug-18 15:00 Malmo FF Trelleborgs H 1.15 7.89 17.16 19-Aug-18 14:00 Elfsborg Norrkoping X 2.87 3.44 2.36 19-Aug-18 14:00 Sundsvall Hacken H 3.26 3.51 2.13 19-Aug-18 16:30 Brommapojkarna AIK nobet 7.98 4.47 1.4 19-Aug-18 16:30 Djurgarden Kalmar H 1.65 3.63 5.53 20-Aug-18 18:00 Hammarby Orebro H 1.43 4.64 6.64 20-Aug-18 18:00 Goteborg Ostersunds A 2.93 3.25 2.41 JAPAN               19-Aug-18 05:00 Sapporo FC Tokyo X 2.79 3.27 2.45 19-Aug-18 10:00 Nagoya Sagan Tosu X 2.9 3.4 2.3 19-Aug-18 10:00 Shimizu Urawa H 3.54 3.38 2.03 19-Aug-18 10:00 V-Varen Nagasaki C-Osaka X 3.43 3.4 2.05 19-Aug-18 10:30 Kashima Yokohama M. A 1.92 3.77 3.53 19-Aug-18 11:00 Hiroshima Kawasaki Frontale A 2.88 3.41 2.32 19-Aug-18 11:00 Iwata Kashiwa A 2.74 3.17 2.55 19-Aug-18 11:00 Shonan Kobe X 3.23 3.42 2.13 19-Aug-18 11:00 Vegalta Sendai G-Osaka A 2.09 3.53 3.22 CHINA               18-Aug-18 12:35 Beijing Renhe Beijing Guoan A 7.35 5.74 1.31 18-Aug-18 12:35 Chongqing Lifan Shanghai SIPG A 7.94 5.83 1.29 18-Aug-18 12:35 Dalian Yifang F.C. Henan Jianye H 1.91 3.48 3.77 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou R&F Changchun Yatai A 2.14 3.62 3.01 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guizhou Zhicheng Shandong Luneng A 6.24 4.93 1.4 18-Aug-18 12:35 Tianjin Teda Jiangsu Suning nobet 2.43 3.38 2.71 19-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou Evergrande Tianjin Quanjian H 1.07 10.81 22.57 19-Aug-18 12:35 Hebei Shanghai Shenhua H 2.09 3.72 3.01 I also processed Brazil Serie A, but they're not quite half way through their season yet, but here are the forecasts anyway;
BRAZIL         OddsPortal average odds 18-Aug-18 20:00 Santos Sport Recife H 1.51 4.01 6.46 18-Aug-18 23:00 Corinthians Gremio A 2.97 2.92 2.58 19-Aug-18 15:00 Atletico-PR Flamengo RJ H 2.74 3.12 2.62 19-Aug-18 15:00 Internacional Parana H 1.38 4.4 8.74 19-Aug-18 20:00 Botafogo RJ Atletico-MG X 2.36 3.31 2.92 19-Aug-18 20:00 Cruzeiro Bahia H 1.44 3.98 8.2 19-Aug-18 20:00 Vitoria Palmeiras X 3.42 3.4 2.08 19-Aug-18 23:00 America MG Fluminense H 2.31 3.09 3.19 19-Aug-18 23:00 Sao Paulo Chapecoense-SC H 1.39 4.31 8.88 21-Aug-18 00:00 Vasco Ceara A 1.75 3.36 4.91  

For tomorrow, Ipswich to win corners match bet v A Villa, 1pt at 6-4 with BF or PP

That's also tipped by the Racing Post today in their 88 page World Cup pullout. Spent most of today wading though it. It's a decent enough read and should be useful for reference before each game.
To answer a question asked elsewhere by @thecurlyone1 Kevin Pullein's only tip is for Argentina who he feels may represent the best value in the outright market. There's also a couple of pages where he offers his thoughts on qualifying results (a poor guide to what lies ahead), the extent of home continent advantage for European teams, the increasing prevalence of defence over attack in International football and how luck is more significant in International tournaments than is generally acknowledged.
Also, back to @waynecoyne Spreadex have got a load more of those player goal minutes quotes up which I've not looked at yet.

Today has been a good day but with 5 selections still to play atm it could still turn out to be a bad day. I didn't see the second half was was surprised at the 3-0 score line. As I've been out I've missed some selections  but fingers crossed for a profitable day today but you won't see me getting carried away .
Just hope people continue to enjoy the thread and what I do and that would be good enough for me to continue. Like I said at the start of the thread I was struggling to get this going again and just needed the motivation in order to put in the hard work again.
So I would like to say a big Thank you to you all for getting me going again and Now I'm back into it and enjoying it more then ever. But this is just the start there is a very long way to go lets see how it looks after 2000 or so bets.

No cards so a winning bet.
21 winners from 29 selections, +16.5 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 54.09%. +15.55 points to level stakes with an ROI of 53.62%.

For tomorrow, Under 3.5 Asian total cards in Liverpool v Watford, 1pt at 1.95 with 365.

Another win this week..
17 winners from 25 selections, +12.4 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 46.79%. +11.45 points to level stakes with an ROI of 45.8%.

Todays selection -
Thursday                                                                          Odds Stake Win
01/03/2018 Arsenal v Man City 7.45 Correct Score 1-3  14.00 £1.00 £13.00 BF

2 winners since the last update.
14 winners from 21 selections, +10.2 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 45.33%. +9.25 points to level stakes with an ROI of 44.05%.

6-3 to West Ham on corners so another winner.
10 winners from 16 selections, +7.5 points to advised stakes with an ROI of 41.67%. +5.4 points to level stakes with an ROI of 33.75%.

You were right, Curly One - but, unfortunately, I was travelling and missed them 
Hi, Justanotherpunter - you can find the predictions at the bottom of each analysis page on BBC Sport, e.g. for tomorrow's Newcastle v Everton game, the link is http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/42247118 
1-X-2 selections for Wednesday evening are few - but they do include the first "X" selection. 

A good weekend.......
1-X-2 selections into positive territory again - 18 bets - overall ROI  +10%
Correct score selections - 29 bets - overall ROI  +76% 

Oh, ye of little faith 

Thursday                                                                                Odds  Stake  Liability
Bilbao v Hertha                     6.00 Lay Bilbao not to win           1.72 £2.00 £1.44 3-2 lost £1.44
Salzburg v Guimaraes          6.00 Lay Salzburg not to win       1.37 £2.00 £0.74 3-0 lost £0.74
Lazio v Vitesse                     6.00 Lay Lazio not to win             1.54 £2.00 £1.08 1-1 won £1.90
Lok Moscow v Copenhagen 6.00 Lay Lok Moscow not to win 1.91 £2.00 £1.82 2-1 lost £1.82
Nice v Waregem                   6.00 Lay Nice not to win              1.44 £2.00 £0.88 3-1 lost £0.88
Rosenborg v Sociedad         6.00 Lay Sociedad not to win      1.78 £2.00 £1.56 0-1 lost £1.56
Plzen v Steaua                     6.00 Lay Plzen not to win            1.72 £2.00 £1.44 2-0 lost £1.44
Zenit v Vardar                       6.00 Lay Zenit not to win             1.13 £3.00 £0.39 2-1 lost £0.39
Milan v Aus Vienna               8.05 Lay Milan not to win            1.32 £2.00 £0.64 5-1 lost £0.64
AEK v Rijeka                         8.05 Lay AEK not to win             1.77 £2.00 £1.54 2-2 won £1.90
Ludogorets v Baseksehir      8.05 Lay Ludogorets not to win  1.61 £2.00 £1.22 1-2 won £1.90
Lyon v Apollon                      8.05 Lay Lyon not to win            1.32 £2.00 £0.64 4-0 lost £0.64
Sheriff v Zlin                         8.05 Lay Sheriff not to win          1.73 £2.00 £1.46 1-0 lost £1.46
Skenderbau v D Kiev           8.05 Lay D Kiev not to win          1.88 £2.00 £1.76 3-2 won £1.90
Total matches played = 14 - total matches won = 4 - total matches lost = 10
Total won = £7.60 - total lost = £11.01 - total lost = £3.41
Bank £60.52
Selections 100
Won 44
Lost 56
Total lost £3.41
New Bank £27.11

It looks as though BBC are NOT going to publish SAM's predictions for the mid-week games  so, we will have to wait until the weekend for the next "exciting" installment.

I'm putting together a betting preview template and would value any input. I put something together quickly as I want to get as much input as possible so this is a rough idea what I am considering.
What do you like (or not)? What would you add to it?
-----------
Game & League:
-
How is each team performing over the season?
(Give a small overview e.g. league placing, are they over performing relative to expectations? Are they trying to win the league or are they expected to finish mid table? Ect)
-
What is the head to head record?
(Have these teams played each other relatively recently? What was the result and how did that game play out? Who was the better team in that game? Was the result fair?)
-
How have each team done against similar opponents?
Identify a couple of teams that are similar to the home team in standard and playing style and give a quick review of how the away team did against these two teams. Do the same for the other team. Can you identify a trend from these results?
-
What are the characteristics of each team?
Is the home team a very defensive team or do they like to attack? Do they usually have most of the possession in their games? Do they like to play long balls up to a target man or are they more of a passing team? What about the away team?
-
How has each team played in their previous four games?
(Give results and a small bit of insight into each game and identify they are in good form or bad form relative to their overall season form)
-
What tactics will each team employ in this game?
Will one team try to play for a draw? Is one team far superior to the other and expected to dominate the game? What can each team do to improve their chances of winning? Do you expect a lot of goals in this game? What formation do you expect each team to start with? Ect.
-
Who are the most important players on each team?
Is there a striker that is crucial to his team? A central defender who is the leader of the team? A tricky wingback that will be crucial to his teams chances? Any important injuries or suspensions? Ect.
 

GALATASARAY v sivasspor 3-0

BESIKTAS v bursaspor 2-1

CSKA - Grozny 0-1

ZENIT - Rostov 0-0

AC MILAN v Cagliari 2-1


Yep RUSSIANS and BELGIANS ..........


Selections 21
Wins 14
Profit / Loss to 10pt win = -3.80PTS

2-0 to Kilmarnock on cards. 1-1 for KP so far this season. +0.1 to level stakes, +1.2 to advised stakes.