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A different approach?


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Many football rating methods are compiled on a match-by-match basis in real time, inasmuch a ratings is assessed for a game at hand, then using the result of said game, the rating is adjusted accordingly. The most recent match therefore has perhaps too much of an influence on how the new rating moves.

This approach presented here also uses past results to calculate the outcome, but it looks at ALL previous game results and treats them as equally important. Trends therefore are not picked up, whichever way a team's form is heading is totally ignored. A good or bad thing? . . . let's find out.

I'm using neural/genetic machine learning to process season-to-date league results to find the best fit of correct home, draw, away predictions to then apply to the next set of fixtures. In order allow the algorithms enough relevant information and data it is thought necessary to employ only where a league season is half completed.

Other caveats include no leagues of more than 20 teams so as not to overwhelm the net (and take far longer to process). No leagues with too few teams either where teams may play each other more than twice ~ nothing confuses artificial intelligence more than encountering the same situation with different outcomes, e.g. United v City showing one home win and one away win.

Having churned through a few leagues here's what it gives for this weekend; (odds are Oddsportal average odds from 50 odd bookies)

CHILE              
18-Aug-18 16:00 San Luis U. Espanola A 2.57 3.28 2.59
18-Aug-18 19:00 Antofagasta Union La Calera nobet 1.94 3.54 3.57
18-Aug-18 21:30 U. De Chile O'Higgins A 1.64 4.01 4.51
19-Aug-18 00:00 Everton Huachipato H 2.04 3.27 3.52
19-Aug-18 16:00 Deportes Iquique Colo Colo A 3.19 3.51 2.05
19-Aug-18 19:00 U. De Concepcion Deportes Temuco H 1.83 3.43 3.99
19-Aug-18 21:30 U. Catolica Curico Unido H 1.72 3.57 4.45
SWEDEN              
18-Aug-18 15:00 Malmo FF Trelleborgs H 1.15 7.89 17.16
19-Aug-18 14:00 Elfsborg Norrkoping X 2.87 3.44 2.36
19-Aug-18 14:00 Sundsvall Hacken H 3.26 3.51 2.13
19-Aug-18 16:30 Brommapojkarna AIK nobet 7.98 4.47 1.4
19-Aug-18 16:30 Djurgarden Kalmar H 1.65 3.63 5.53
20-Aug-18 18:00 Hammarby Orebro H 1.43 4.64 6.64
20-Aug-18 18:00 Goteborg Ostersunds A 2.93 3.25 2.41
JAPAN              
19-Aug-18 05:00 Sapporo FC Tokyo X 2.79 3.27 2.45
19-Aug-18 10:00 Nagoya Sagan Tosu X 2.9 3.4 2.3
19-Aug-18 10:00 Shimizu Urawa H 3.54 3.38 2.03
19-Aug-18 10:00 V-Varen Nagasaki C-Osaka X 3.43 3.4 2.05
19-Aug-18 10:30 Kashima Yokohama M. A 1.92 3.77 3.53
19-Aug-18 11:00 Hiroshima Kawasaki Frontale A 2.88 3.41 2.32
19-Aug-18 11:00 Iwata Kashiwa A 2.74 3.17 2.55
19-Aug-18 11:00 Shonan Kobe X 3.23 3.42 2.13
19-Aug-18 11:00 Vegalta Sendai G-Osaka A 2.09 3.53 3.22
CHINA              
18-Aug-18 12:35 Beijing Renhe Beijing Guoan A 7.35 5.74 1.31
18-Aug-18 12:35 Chongqing Lifan Shanghai SIPG A 7.94 5.83 1.29
18-Aug-18 12:35 Dalian Yifang F.C. Henan Jianye H 1.91 3.48 3.77
18-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou R&F Changchun Yatai A 2.14 3.62 3.01
18-Aug-18 12:35 Guizhou Zhicheng Shandong Luneng A 6.24 4.93 1.4
18-Aug-18 12:35 Tianjin Teda Jiangsu Suning nobet 2.43 3.38 2.71
19-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou Evergrande Tianjin Quanjian H 1.07 10.81 22.57
19-Aug-18 12:35 Hebei Shanghai Shenhua H 2.09 3.72 3.01

I also processed Brazil Serie A, but they're not quite half way through their season yet, but here are the forecasts anyway;

BRAZIL         OddsPortal average odds
18-Aug-18 20:00 Santos Sport Recife H 1.51 4.01 6.46
18-Aug-18 23:00 Corinthians Gremio A 2.97 2.92 2.58
19-Aug-18 15:00 Atletico-PR Flamengo RJ H 2.74 3.12 2.62
19-Aug-18 15:00 Internacional Parana H 1.38 4.4 8.74
19-Aug-18 20:00 Botafogo RJ Atletico-MG X 2.36 3.31 2.92
19-Aug-18 20:00 Cruzeiro Bahia H 1.44 3.98 8.2
19-Aug-18 20:00 Vitoria Palmeiras X 3.42 3.4 2.08
19-Aug-18 23:00 America MG Fluminense H 2.31 3.09 3.19
19-Aug-18 23:00 Sao Paulo Chapecoense-SC H 1.39 4.31 8.88
21-Aug-18 00:00 Vasco Ceara A 1.75 3.36 4.91

 

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14 correct from the 38 picks (including the Brazil games) is not a start I would have wished for. -12.83 from a 33.8% strike rate and a -33.76% yield. But this thread is experimental and my thinking-in-progress, so all is far from doom & gloom.

My neural net classifier gives a binary decision on each game. For my first run, with last weekend's fixtures I merely selected the outcome with the highest network 'probability' for every match, with a no bet where two oucomes were too close to call. Better I think to select only the very best of the picks where the net is suggesting a near certainty. I'm not naive enough to think such games will be anywhere near the certainty suggested, but they will be the cream of the crop.

Elsewhere I've expressed my opinion that football draws are probably the hardest outcome to predict, and my weekend sample, although comparatively small, suggested 7 such outcomes - and every single one failed! Not a proof by any means, but something to keep in my mind.

So, the Brazil net newly trained with the latest results and bearing the above thoughts in mind, we have three midweek selections; ALL HOME WINS:-

BRAZIL A        
23-Aug-18 01:00 Palmeiras Botafogo RJ 1.44
23-Aug-18 01:00 Sport Recife America MG 1.91
23-Aug-18 01:45 Fluminense Corinthians 2.23
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Two from three for a profit is okay. But I've re-analysed and re-thought my methods.

I'm still using nothing more than season results to date to build the networks, no odds are used, no winning margins, just the season's win, draw & away records. I do have a very small sample now to help see how it is performing, and near to perfect P=1 is required to trigger a bet ~ but still work in progress.

This weeknend's matches are reprinted here in full showing all network P values for HOME,DRAW or AWAY.
My best bets are shown to the right hand side.

country date KO home team away team OddsH OddsD OddsA Phome Pdraw Paway My Pick
BRAZIL 23/08/2018 23:30 Flamengo RJ Vitoria 1.36 5.28 13.93 0.9350 0.0170 0.0480  
BELARUS 24/08/2018 16:45 FC Minsk Zhodino 3.78 3.10 1.93 0.0000 0.9997 0.0003  
BRAZIL 24/08/2018 00:00 Atletico-MG Vasco 1.58 4.32 6.50 0.9981 0.0001 0.0018  
CHINA 24/08/2018 12:35 Tianjin Quanjian Guizhou Zhicheng 1.92 3.80 4.03 0.9993 0.0007 0.0000 HOME
JAPAN 24/08/2018 11:00 Kashima Iwata 2.00 3.75 4.33 0.3913 0.5997 0.0090  
BELARUS 25/08/2018 13:45 Gorodeja Isloch Minsk 2.42 2.73 3.08 0.0000 0.0232 0.9768  
BELARUS 25/08/2018 15:45 BATE Vitebsk 1.40 3.84 7.41 0.5029 0.4971 0.0000  
BELARUS 25/08/2018 17:45 Neman Torpedo Minsk 1.41 3.70 7.99 0.1481 0.1408 0.7111  
CHILE 25/08/2018 00:00 Curico Unido U. De Concepcion 2.61 3.38 2.80 0.0000 0.0135 0.9865  
CHILE 25/08/2018 16:00 Colo Colo U. De Chile 2.10 3.60 3.80 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 AWAY
CHILE 25/08/2018 19:00 Deportes Temuco Everton 2.31 3.44 3.30 0.9981 0.0018 0.0002  
CHILE 25/08/2018 21:30 Huachipato Antofagasta 2.51 3.40 3.03 0.0006 0.5082 0.4912  
CHINA 25/08/2018 12:35 Chongqing Lifan Dalian Yifang F.C. 2.32 3.66 3.04 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 AWAY
CHINA 25/08/2018 12:35 Shandong Luneng Guangzhou Evergrande 3.12 3.74 2.21 0.4912 0.5088 0.0000  
CHINA 25/08/2018 12:35 Shanghai SIPG Henan Jianye 1.12 9.70 27.00 0.9935 0.0000 0.0065  
CHINA 25/08/2018 12:35 Tianjin Teda Beijing Guoan 5.45 4.30 1.62 0.0000 0.0004 0.9995  
ICELAND 25/08/2018 18:00 Stjarnan Breidablik 1.97 3.76 4.00 0.0001 0.7302 0.2697  
ICELAND 25/08/2018 18:00 Vikingur Reykjavik KA Akureyri 2.64 3.60 2.76 0.0000 0.0132 0.9868  
ICELAND 25/08/2018 21:00 Valur Fjolnir 1.46 4.97 8.00 0.5246 0.4754 0.0000  
JAPAN 25/08/2018 11:00 C-Osaka Hiroshima 2.48 3.62 3.00 0.0034 0.2566 0.7399  
JAPAN 25/08/2018 11:00 Kashiwa V-Varen Nagasaki 1.80 3.92 5.25 0.8272 0.0001 0.1727  
JAPAN 25/08/2018 11:00 Kawasaki Frontale Vegalta Sendai 1.61 4.50 6.50 0.0103 0.0017 0.9881  
JAPAN 25/08/2018 11:00 Shimizu Sapporo 2.52 3.52 3.00 0.0000 0.4876 0.5124  
NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Haugesund Stabaek 1.82 3.91 4.83 0.9746 0.0253 0.0001  
NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Molde Ranheim 1.44 5.25 9.17 0.7594 0.0002 0.2404  
NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Sandefjord Lillestrom 3.10 3.50 2.53 0.5435 0.0003 0.4562  
NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Sarpsborg 08 Kristiansund 1.83 4.00 4.65 0.9991 0.0009 0.0000 HOME
NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Tromso Bodo/Glimt 2.02 3.75 3.95 0.0000 0.9906 0.0094  
BELARUS 26/08/2018 13:45 Smolevichi STI Brest 8.10 4.36 1.33 0.0001 0.9785 0.0214  
BELARUS 26/08/2018 15:45 Shakhtyor Soligorsk Dnepr Mogilev 1.22 4.98 11.56 0.5000 0.5000 0.0000  
BELARUS 26/08/2018 17:45 FC Gomel Din. Minsk 6.42 3.49 1.51 0.0000 0.5000 0.5000  
CHILE 26/08/2018 00:00 O'Higgins U. Espanola 2.32 3.40 3.36 0.1187 0.0077 0.8736  
CHILE 26/08/2018 16:00 Palestino San Luis 1.82 3.70 4.90 0.9999 0.0001 0.0000 HOME
CHILE 26/08/2018 21:30 Union La Calera Deportes Iquique 2.16 3.44 3.70 0.0000 0.4826 0.5174  
CHINA 26/08/2018 11:00 Changchun Yatai Hebei 2.86 3.70 2.41 0.4842 0.0318 0.4841  
CHINA 26/08/2018 12:35 Jiangsu Suning Guangzhou R&F 1.92 3.68 4.14 0.6025 0.3969 0.0006  
CHINA 26/08/2018 12:35 Shanghai Shenhua Beijing Renhe 1.72 3.80 5.30 0.0011 0.9988 0.0000  
ICELAND 26/08/2018 15:00 KR Reykjavik Vestmannaeyjar 1.62 4.09 6.55 0.5304 0.4696 0.0000  
ICELAND 26/08/2018 19:00 Keflavik Hafnarfjordur 9.50 5.80 1.36 0.0000 0.4922 0.5078  
JAPAN 26/08/2018 10:00 Kobe Yokohama M. 2.09 3.92 3.75 0.9973 0.0026 0.0001  
JAPAN 26/08/2018 10:00 Nagoya Urawa 3.60 3.90 2.15 0.0002 0.9207 0.0791  
JAPAN 26/08/2018 11:00 Sagan Tosu G-Osaka 2.32 3.48 3.60 0.9531 0.0469 0.0000  
JAPAN 26/08/2018 11:00 Shonan FC Tokyo 3.79 3.60 2.10 0.0028 0.4840 0.5132  
NORWAY 26/08/2018 17:00 Rosenborg Stromsgodset 1.56 4.50 7.00 0.4876 0.5014 0.0110  
NORWAY 26/08/2018 19:00 Valerenga Brann 2.80 3.55 2.74 0.0000 0.4651 0.5349  
SWEDEN 26/08/2018 14:00 Hacken Brommapojkarna 1.26 7.00 14.50 0.9854 0.0146 0.0000  
SWEDEN 26/08/2018 14:00 Malmo FF Sirius 1.33 6.10 10.75 0.8920 0.1078 0.0003  
SWEDEN 26/08/2018 14:00 Ostersunds Sundsvall 1.80 4.00 5.00 0.8661 0.1325 0.0015  
SWEDEN 26/08/2018 16:30 AIK Trelleborgs 1.20 8.00 27.50 0.5003 0.4997 0.0000  
SWEDEN 26/08/2018 16:30 Djurgarden Elfsborg 1.79 3.90 5.05 0.8053 0.0000 0.1947  
BELARUS 27/08/2018 17:00 Slutsk Luch Minsk 1.31 4.46 8.63 0.9142 0.0005 0.0852  
CHILE 27/08/2018 00:00 A. Italiano U. Catolica 3.22 3.50 2.37 0.0000 0.4993 0.5007  
ICELAND 27/08/2018 19:00 Fylkir Grindavik 2.22 3.54 3.46 0.9985 0.0000 0.0015  
NORWAY 27/08/2018 18:00 Start Odd 2.75 3.60 2.85 0.2554 0.3096 0.4350  
SWEDEN 27/08/2018 18:00 Dalkurd Hammarby 5.83 4.20 1.66 0.3092 0.3995 0.2913  
SWEDEN 27/08/2018 18:00 Kalmar Orebro 1.83 4.05 4.55 0.3716 0.6284 0.0000  
SWEDEN 27/08/2018 18:00 Norrkoping Goteborg 1.65 4.20 6.00 0.4999 0.0004 0.4998  
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A couple of Brazil Serie A best-bet picks from this method to add to the above;
(one result in so far, win at 1.92)

26-Aug-18 | 20:00 | America MG | Flamengo RJ   away win 2.41
26-Aug-18 | 23:00 | Vasco | Chapecoense-SC    draw   3.32 
 

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I've been looking further into various options for this experiment in artificial intellingence football predictions. Using goal differences instead of simply the three options of Home/Away/Draw that I began with didn't appear to get me any closer to a solution. However, using a classification method with correct scores did show some promise . . .

Again, nothing but current league results to date (where the engine assumes each team's home & away results are two distinctly separate individual teams). Results used are all those where the home and away sides scored 2 goals or fewer, and other scores are all lumped together as "other". This approach I figured was working with more than 50% of all results, and I wasn't really bothered about attempting to predict EVERY game, rather than to concentrate on those games where scores were more 'reasonable' and as such perhaps allowing a little more confidence in the outcomes.

We shall see, can this possibly make a level stake profit?

The 3 most common football outcomes are 1-0, 1-1 & 0-1. So, I'll use these scores as control variables, logging the percentage hit rate and profit/loss for each and comparing progress.
 

Japan 26-Aug-18 11:00 Shonan   FC Tokyo 2~0
Japan 26-Aug-18 11:00 Sagan Tosu   G-Osaka 1~0
China 26-Aug-18 12:35 Jiangsu Suning   Guangzhou R&F 2~2
Belarus 26-Aug-18 13:45 Smolevichi STI   Brest 2~0
Sweden 26-Aug-18 14:00 Malmo FF   Sirius 1~1
Sweden 26-Aug-18 14:00 Ostersunds   Sundsvall 1~1
Iceland 26-Aug-18 15:00 KR Reykjavik   Vestmannaeyjar 0~1
Brazil 26-Aug-18 15:00 Sao Paulo   Ceara 1~0
Chile 26-Aug-18 16:00 Palestino   San Luis 1~1
Sweden 26-Aug-18 16:30 Djurgarden   Elfsborg 1~0
Norway 26-Aug-18 17:00 Rosenborg   Stromsgodset 2~2
Iceland 26-Aug-18 19:00 Keflavik   Hafnarfjordur 1~1
Norway 26-Aug-18 19:00 Valerenga   Brann 2~2
Brazil 26-Aug-18 20:00 Internacional   Palmeiras 1~0
Brazil 26-Aug-18 20:00 Vitoria   Atletico-MG 1~0
Chile 26-Aug-18 21:30 Union La Calera   Deportes Iquique 0~0
Brazil 26-Aug-18 23:00 Vasco   Chapecoense-SC 1~0
Chile 27-Aug-18 00:00 A. Italiano   U. Catolica 2~2
Belarus 27-Aug-18 17:00 Slutsk   Luch Minsk 1~1
Sweden 27-Aug-18 18:00 Norrkoping   Goteborg 1~0
Iceland 27-Aug-18 19:00 Fylkir   Grindavik 1~1
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On 25/08/2018 at 10:29 AM, Data said:

A couple of Brazil Serie A best-bet picks from this method to add to the above;
(one result in so far, win at 1.92)

26-Aug-18 | 20:00 | America MG | Flamengo RJ   away win 2.41
26-Aug-18 | 23:00 | Vasco | Chapecoense-SC    draw   3.32 
 

Well, the above two additions both lost leaving a poor return for the weekend's 7pt outlay. Just a single winner from the seven proposed and an overall loss of 5.08pts.

I'm pinning greater hopes on my revised correct scores engine to rescue this thread.

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Correct scored round-up. No profit from these first ones, but very early days yet. A combined summary is printed here which also includes a handy comparison of my ML picks against backing every game to finish 1-0, every game 1-1 and every game 0-1. Finally the predictions from a web site that puts its correct score on line for free (Bettingclosed.com)
 

image.png.aff19ed798d55bd9b80897ba676534d8.png

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The full W/L record for the previous correct score predictions as reflected in the previous post were as follows;

image.png.326e44400704e81840c6159b422e87cd.png

My machine learning (ML pred) came second behind backing all to finish 1-0. Early days yet, I'll keep going with this whilst there's still hope.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/09/2018 at 9:02 AM, pronoskiller said:

End of your experimentation,

Which plateform do you use to run your predictif model ?

I'm interest to process data in this way.

I'm busy in my darkened room in an attempt to refine this process. The software I'm using is Neuroshell Classifier from the AI Trilogy package. (I've had this for years now ~ back when it was less than a quarter of today's price!)

Their classifier is unique, so far as I know, inasmuch the predicted output is not restricted to two state binary, but can be as many variants as the user chooses (I've been restricting possible outputs/scores to every variant between 0-0 & 3-2)

. . . but still work in progress!

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thks for your information about your software.

After reflection, I think this approach of setting up a classification algorithm to highlight variables, impacting the results to find values, it's the best and short way because bookmakers spend a lot of time and money to work in this way and they have better sources more sharp and high quality of data. So i thinking to find another way to explore and find spot value. Good luck for your research.

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