thecurlyone1

You're right, but it's fun finding out isn't it?

This is an exercise to see if a profit can be made from correct scores and in order to maintain a level playing field I'm using a single, easily accessible bookmaker. Occasionally you'll see research where using "best odds" shows a profit, whereas "average odds" do not.
Although I take your point that better prices would be available on Betfair, etc., it is difficult if not impossible to use variable and somewhat intangible prices. Final Bet365 odds ensure that if a profit can be turned using such an arbitrary measure, anyone could repeat it and even improve on it by shopping around.
However, nobody can get best odds all of the time, so using them as a measure is disingenuous.  

At £10 per correct score bet, this weekend is costing £410 to cover, the bets are ...
14.2.20 20:00   Wolverhampton Wanderers Leicester       1~2 15.2.20 12:30   Southampton   Burnley       1~2 15.2.20 17:30   Norwich   Liverpool       0~2 16.2.20 14:00   Aston Villa   Tottenham       2~2 16.2.20 16:30   Arsenal   Newcastle       1~0 17.2.20 20:00   Chelsea   Manchester United       2~0                     14.2.20 19:45   Hull   Swansea       1~1 15.2.20 12:30   West Bromwich   Nottingham       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Birmingham   Brentford       0~1 15.2.20 15:00   Cardiff   Wigan       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Charlton   Blackburn       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Derby   Huddersfield       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Fulham   Barnsley       2~2 15.2.20 15:00   Leeds   Bristol City       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Middlesbrough   Luton       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Preston   Millwall       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Q.P.R.   Stoke       2~2 15.2.20 15:00   Sheffield Wednesday   Reading       1~0                     15.2.20 15:00   Accrington Stanley   Lincoln       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Bolton   Wycombe       0~1 15.2.20 15:00   Bristol Rovers   Blackpool       0~0 15.2.20 15:00   Fleetwood Town   Peterborough       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Gillingham   Doncaster       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Ipswich   Burton       1~2 15.2.20 15:00   Oxford   Sunderland       1~0 15.2.20 15:00   Portsmouth   Shrewsbury       1~0 15.2.20 15:00   Rochdale   Tranmere       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Rotherham   AFC Wimbledon       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Southend   Coventry       1~3                     15.2.20 15:00   Cambridge   Bradford       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Cheltenham   Leyton       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Crawley Town   Carlisle       2~0 15.2.20 15:00   Grimsby   Morecambe       1~0 15.2.20 15:00   Macclesfield   Exeter       1~0 15.2.20 15:00   Mansfield   Newport       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Oldham   Forest Green       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Plymouth   Crewe       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Port Vale   Colchester       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Stevenage   Salford City       0~1 15.2.20 15:00   Swindon   Scnuthorpe       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Walsall   Northampton       1~1  
... and the National League games, no bets, for info only, are;
15.2.20 15:00   Aldershot   Boreham Wood     1~2 15.2.20 15:00   Barnet   Harrogate Town     1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Barrow   Dagenham & Redbridge   1~0 15.2.20 15:00   Eastleigh   Dover Athletic     0~1 15.2.20 15:00   Ebbsfleet United Chorley       1~2 15.2.20 15:00   Fylde   Maidenhead United     1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Halifax   Sutton UTD     1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Notts County Woking       1~0 15.2.20 15:00   Solihull   Hartlepool       2~1 15.2.20 15:00   Stockport   Bromley       1~1 15.2.20 15:00   Wrexham   Torquay       1~1 15.2.20 17:20   Yeovil   Chesterfield     2~1

Midweek games saw a £350 stake return £310 winnings for a net -£40.
Bringing our total stake / return to £730 staked with £805 winnings, a 10% ROI
The synopsis below;
            result     pred CS odds 11.2.20 19:45   Barnsley   Birmingham 0 1   2~2   11.2.20 19:45   Blackburn   Hull 3 0   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Brentford   Leeds 1 1   1~0   11.2.20 19:45   Nottingham   Charlton 0 1   2~1   11.2.20 19:45   Swansea   Q.P.R. 0 0   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Wigan   Middlesbrough 2 2   1~1   12.2.20 19:45   Bristol City   Derby 3 2   2~1   12.2.20 19:45   Huddersfield   Cardiff 0 3   1~1   12.2.20 19:45   Luton   Sheffield Wednesday 1 0   2~1   12.2.20 19:45   Millwall   Fulham 1 1   1~0   12.2.20 20:00   Reading   West Bromwich 1 2   0~1   12.2.20 20:00   Stoke   Preston 0 2   1~1                         11.2.20 19:45   AFC Wimbledon   Ipswich 0 0   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Blackpool   Gillingham 2 3   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Burton   Oxford 2 2   1~0   11.2.20 19:45   Coventry   Portsmouth 1 0   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Doncaster   Bolton 2 1   2~1 8.5 11.2.20 19:45   Lincoln   Milton Keynes 1 1   1~1 6.5 11.2.20 19:45   Peterborough   Southend 4 0   2~1   11.2.20 19:45   Shrewsbury   Accrington Stanley 0 2   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Sunderland   Rochdale 3 0   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Tranmere   Bristol Rovers 0 0   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Wycombe   Fleetwood Town 0 1   3~1                         11.2.20 19:45   Bradford   Stevenage 3 1   1~0   11.2.20 19:45   Carlisle   Cheltenham 0 1   0~1 7.5 11.2.20 19:45   Colchester   Grimsby 2 3   2~0   11.2.20 19:45   Crewe   Crawley Town 2 1   2~1 8.5 11.2.20 19:45   Exeter   Oldham 5 1   1~0   11.2.20 19:45   Forest Green   Port Vale 2 3   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Leyton   Mansfield 2 1   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Morecambe   Macclesfield 2 0   1~0   11.2.20 19:45   Newport   Walsall 0 0   1~0   11.2.20 19:45   Northampton   Swindon 0 1   2~1   11.2.20 19:45   Salford City   Plymouth 2 3   1~1   11.2.20 19:45   Scnuthorpe   Cambridge 0 2   1~1    
National League results were unspectacular;
11.2.20 19:45   Solihull   Barnet 1 0   1~1 11.2.20 19:45   Eastleigh   Fylde 2 2   2~1 11.2.20 19:45   Harrogate Town   Yeovil 3 0   1~1 NL ongoing account now reads staked £70, winnings £65 for a £5 overall loss.
 

From today until the end of the English season I'll be setting out Excel Solver selections for correct scores from the English leagues and putting a notional £10 bet on each one (that will run into one hellofa stake total by the end).
Experience this season has shown that the National league is not a happy hunting ground for correct score picks so this exercise will concentrate on Premier, Championship, League One & League Two.
I'll publish the National League picks anyway (I have it all set up so no hassle) but they'll be just for curiosity value and not part of the betting returns.
Starting Profit/Loss £0.00
Predictions for 7/8 February 2020
8.2.20 12:30 Everton   Crystal Palace     0~1 8.2.20 17:30 Brighton   Watford     1~0 9.2.20 14:00 Sheffield United   Bournemouth     1~0 9.2.20 16:30 Manchester City   West Ham     3~0                 7.2.20 19:45 Bristol City   Birmingham     1~1 8.2.20 12:30 Wigan   Preston     0~0 8.2.20 13:30 Barnsley   Sheffield Wednesday     1~2 8.2.20 15:00 Blackburn   Fulham     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Brentford   Middlesbrough     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Huddersfield   Q.P.R.     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Luton   Cardiff     2~1 8.2.20 15:00 Reading   Hull     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Stoke   Charlton     1~2 8.2.20 15:00 Swansea   Derby     2~0 8.2.20 17:30 Nottingham   Leeds     1~1 9.2.20 13:30 Millwall   West Bromwich     1~1                 7.2.20 19:45 Lincoln   Rotherham     2~1 8.2.20 15:00 AFC Wimbledon   Fleetwood Town     2~2 8.2.20 15:00 Blackpool   Southend     2~2 8.2.20 15:00 Burton   Gillingham     0~0 8.2.20 15:00 Coventry   Bolton     3~0 8.2.20 15:00 Doncaster   Rochdale     2~1 8.2.20 15:00 Peterborough   Oxford     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Shrewsbury   Milton Keynes     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Sunderland   Ipswich     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Tranmere   Portsmouth     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Wycombe   Bristol Rovers     2~0                 8.2.20 15:00 Bradford   Grimsby     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Carlisle   Swindon     1~2 8.2.20 15:00 Colchester   Plymouth     0~2 8.2.20 15:00 Crewe   Oldham     2~1 8.2.20 15:00 Exeter   Stevenage     1~0 8.2.20 15:00 Forest Green   Walsall     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Leyton   Macclesfield     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Morecambe   Mansfield     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Newport   Cambridge     1~0 8.2.20 15:00 Northampton   Port Vale     2~0 8.2.20 15:00 Salford City   Crawley Town     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Scnuthorpe   Cheltenham     1~1 for info only
             
8.2.20 13:00 Chesterfield   Wrexham     0~1 8.2.20 15:00 Bromley   Solihull     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Dagenham & Redbridge Stockport     1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Hartlepool   Aldershot     1~1

https://www.soccerstats.com/halftime.asp?league=england

First results:
I will post totals/ROI at the end of each week.

£550 staked returned £545.
7 winning correct scores from the 55 selections, with B365 closing odds between 9.00 & 6.00. ALMOST breaking even in such a high mark-up area is good going I reckon.
The Conference (sorry! National League) was the difference between profit & loss, showing a complete blank return from the 12 games. I've said before that the Championship provided poor results using this technique, but that loss pales into insignificance when compared to the National League where the last 3 fixture days have yielded 35 straight failures.
This season's returns league by league (since 1st January)
Premier League,  50 bets, 8 winners, +0.28 returned per each 1 point bet
Championship,  51,  4,  -0.46 for each 1 point bet
League One,   56,  8,  +0.14 per bet
League Two,  72,  13,  +0.25 per bet
National League,   59,  3,  -0.65 per bet
ALL:  288 bets, 22 points loss
ALL (without National League):  229 bets, 16.5 points profit.
I'm inclined to keep this going for a while yet, but I'll not bother with the lowest league!
 

A few for tomorrow
25.01. home gent 1.92 25.01. away rotherham 2.60 25.01. home ipswich 2.14 25.01. home lens 2.04 25.01. home motherwell 2.42

Liverpool saved the weekend for the strategy with a 2-0 victory at 8.00, so not a total wipe out.
Ongoing returns now stand at 33pts returned from 30pts staked, ROI 10%
This week's projected scores are as follows;
Bournemouth Brighton 1~1 Aston Villa Watford 1~1 Everton Newcastle 1~0 Sheffield Utd Man City 0~1 Crystal Palace Southamptn 1~1 Chelsea Arsenal 2~1 Leicester West Ham 1~0 Tottenham Norwich 2~1 Man United Burnley 2~1 Wolves Liverpool 1~2

Sunderland win the game 1-0 but a comfortable 11-6 for the hosts on corners. Another win albeit one where anyone would have struggled to get on at the quoted odds.
12 winners and 2 pushes from 20 bets, 5.95 points up with an ROI of 32.16% to advised stakes, 7.2 points up with an ROI of 36% to level stakes.

Midweek selections
20.01. home west brom 1.92 21.01. away wycombe 4.00 22.01. away fulham 1.96

17.01. home fulham 1.95 17.01. away monchengladbach 2.68

Disappointing to have a winner but no money on due to missing the price. Update to follow as usual.

Two for tomorrow
12.01. away lille 2.04 12.01. away farense 2.16

2 winners and a loser tonight. Plenty for tomorrow
11.01. away melbourne 2.48 11.01. home perth glory 1.88 11.01. home wellington 2.22 11.01. away notts forest 3.35 11.01. away wycombe 4.90 11.01. home inter 2.22 11.01. home lazio 2.12 11.01. away familicao 3.40 11.01. away dundee utd 2.12

The game finished 2-2 but Coventry won the corner match up 7-2.
10 winners and 2 pushes from 18 bets, 4.2 points up with an ROI of 24% to advised stakes, 3.7 points up with an ROI of 20.56% to level stakes.

Hi all. Had a few days off due to the festivities, I hope all your New Year shenanigans were as good as mines was ?
Missed a few bets, chelsea drawing with brighton would have been a winner, and no doubt a few bets in the lower leagues too but not to worry. Perth glory was a comfortable loser as they won 3-0, but a few bets for tomorrow as outlined below. Cheers
04.01. home sydney fc 1.94 04.01. away mafra (portugal 2) 3.00 04.01. away dundee utd 1.93 04.01. away ayr utd 3.80 04.01. away real madrid 1.93 04.01. away cadiz 3.40 04.01. away almeria 2.46 04.01. away huesca 2.66 04.01. home fuenlabrada 2.40

Only one before the turn of the year. Should be a few from New Years Day, but I'll post them up nearer the time
31.12. away perth glory 1.90

Okay, so first update of results is here. Good first week, which is unusual as whenever you go live with a system that's usually when it crashes and burns haha. Maybe it's waiting for me to put actual cash down before that happens. In fact, yeah, that's probably it ?
 
        HOME   AWAY     26.12. away gent 3.00     -£20.00   1 0 26.12. away west brom 2.00     £9.80   1 1 26.12. away sheff weds 2.88     £9.80   3 2 26.12. away wycombe 5.00     £9.80   2 0 26.12. home peterboro 2.04 £9.80       0 3 26.12. home ipswich 2.06 £9.80       0 0 26.12. away motherwell 2.24     -£12.40   1 2 28.12. home western utd 2.58 £9.80       1 3 28.12. away leicester 2.02     -£10.20   1 2 28.12. home ayr utd 2.20     £9.80   1 2 29.12. away chelsea 2.42     -£14.20   1 2 29.12. away brentford 2.16     £9.80   1 0 29.12. home wycombe 2.60 £9.80       1 4 29.12. away ipswich 3.15     £9.80   5 3 29.12. away oxford 1.88     -£8.80   1 2 29.12. away peterboro 3.30     £9.80   4 0 29.12. away aberdeen 2.56     £9.80   1 1                                                               £39.20 £39.20 £12.80 £12.80                               Home Overall   Away Overall             £39.20   £12.80  

Can't see a bet this week so looks like we're done for the calendar year.

Yeah, like I say it can be a bit volatile, but always nice to get a decent start with any new system. A few for tomorrow, a few more for Sunday and I'll update results on Sunday night.
 
28.12. home western utd 2.58 28.12. away leicester 2.02 28.12. home ayr utd 2.20

5 out of 7 
 
good start 

MK Dons lose 3-1 but gain 9 corners to the hosts' 5 so the bet would have won even if the handicap had been negative rather than positive.
9 winners and 2 pushes from 17 bets, 2.95 points up with an ROI of 17.88% to advised stakes, 2.45 points up with an ROI of 14.41% to level stakes.

So, nothing better to do on Xmas morning than research bets for a system you are testing, am I right? ?
So here's the boxing day selections. Grid shows the DATE / HOME or AWAY / SELECTION TO LAY / PRICE in that order. I'll update results on Boxing day night and post selections for the 27th. As ever, any questions, anything unclear, just let me know. 
 
MERRY CHRISTMAS ?
 
26.12. away gent 3.00 26.12. away west brom 2.00 26.12. away sheff weds 2.88 26.12. away wycombe 5.00 26.12. home peterboro 2.04 26.12. home ipswich 2.06 26.12. away motherwell 2.24