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thecurlyone1
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thecurlyone1 reacted to Data in Correct Scores (second shift)
You're right, but it's fun finding out isn't it?
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thecurlyone1 reacted to Data in Correct Scores (second shift)
This is an exercise to see if a profit can be made from correct scores and in order to maintain a level playing field I'm using a single, easily accessible bookmaker. Occasionally you'll see research where using "best odds" shows a profit, whereas "average odds" do not.
Although I take your point that better prices would be available on Betfair, etc., it is difficult if not impossible to use variable and somewhat intangible prices. Final Bet365 odds ensure that if a profit can be turned using such an arbitrary measure, anyone could repeat it and even improve on it by shopping around.
However, nobody can get best odds all of the time, so using them as a measure is disingenuous.
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thecurlyone1 reacted to Data in Correct Scores (second shift)
At £10 per correct score bet, this weekend is costing £410 to cover, the bets are ...
14.2.20 20:00 Wolverhampton Wanderers Leicester 1~2 15.2.20 12:30 Southampton Burnley 1~2 15.2.20 17:30 Norwich Liverpool 0~2 16.2.20 14:00 Aston Villa Tottenham 2~2 16.2.20 16:30 Arsenal Newcastle 1~0 17.2.20 20:00 Chelsea Manchester United 2~0 14.2.20 19:45 Hull Swansea 1~1 15.2.20 12:30 West Bromwich Nottingham 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Birmingham Brentford 0~1 15.2.20 15:00 Cardiff Wigan 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Charlton Blackburn 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Derby Huddersfield 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Fulham Barnsley 2~2 15.2.20 15:00 Leeds Bristol City 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Middlesbrough Luton 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Preston Millwall 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Q.P.R. Stoke 2~2 15.2.20 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday Reading 1~0 15.2.20 15:00 Accrington Stanley Lincoln 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Bolton Wycombe 0~1 15.2.20 15:00 Bristol Rovers Blackpool 0~0 15.2.20 15:00 Fleetwood Town Peterborough 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Gillingham Doncaster 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Ipswich Burton 1~2 15.2.20 15:00 Oxford Sunderland 1~0 15.2.20 15:00 Portsmouth Shrewsbury 1~0 15.2.20 15:00 Rochdale Tranmere 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Rotherham AFC Wimbledon 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Southend Coventry 1~3 15.2.20 15:00 Cambridge Bradford 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Cheltenham Leyton 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Crawley Town Carlisle 2~0 15.2.20 15:00 Grimsby Morecambe 1~0 15.2.20 15:00 Macclesfield Exeter 1~0 15.2.20 15:00 Mansfield Newport 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Oldham Forest Green 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Plymouth Crewe 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Port Vale Colchester 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Stevenage Salford City 0~1 15.2.20 15:00 Swindon Scnuthorpe 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Walsall Northampton 1~1
... and the National League games, no bets, for info only, are;
15.2.20 15:00 Aldershot Boreham Wood 1~2 15.2.20 15:00 Barnet Harrogate Town 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Barrow Dagenham & Redbridge 1~0 15.2.20 15:00 Eastleigh Dover Athletic 0~1 15.2.20 15:00 Ebbsfleet United Chorley 1~2 15.2.20 15:00 Fylde Maidenhead United 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Halifax Sutton UTD 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Notts County Woking 1~0 15.2.20 15:00 Solihull Hartlepool 2~1 15.2.20 15:00 Stockport Bromley 1~1 15.2.20 15:00 Wrexham Torquay 1~1 15.2.20 17:20 Yeovil Chesterfield 2~1 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to Data in Correct Scores (second shift)
Midweek games saw a £350 stake return £310 winnings for a net -£40.
Bringing our total stake / return to £730 staked with £805 winnings, a 10% ROI
The synopsis below;
result pred CS odds 11.2.20 19:45 Barnsley Birmingham 0 1 2~2 11.2.20 19:45 Blackburn Hull 3 0 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Brentford Leeds 1 1 1~0 11.2.20 19:45 Nottingham Charlton 0 1 2~1 11.2.20 19:45 Swansea Q.P.R. 0 0 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Wigan Middlesbrough 2 2 1~1 12.2.20 19:45 Bristol City Derby 3 2 2~1 12.2.20 19:45 Huddersfield Cardiff 0 3 1~1 12.2.20 19:45 Luton Sheffield Wednesday 1 0 2~1 12.2.20 19:45 Millwall Fulham 1 1 1~0 12.2.20 20:00 Reading West Bromwich 1 2 0~1 12.2.20 20:00 Stoke Preston 0 2 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 AFC Wimbledon Ipswich 0 0 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Blackpool Gillingham 2 3 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Burton Oxford 2 2 1~0 11.2.20 19:45 Coventry Portsmouth 1 0 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Doncaster Bolton 2 1 2~1 8.5 11.2.20 19:45 Lincoln Milton Keynes 1 1 1~1 6.5 11.2.20 19:45 Peterborough Southend 4 0 2~1 11.2.20 19:45 Shrewsbury Accrington Stanley 0 2 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Sunderland Rochdale 3 0 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Tranmere Bristol Rovers 0 0 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Wycombe Fleetwood Town 0 1 3~1 11.2.20 19:45 Bradford Stevenage 3 1 1~0 11.2.20 19:45 Carlisle Cheltenham 0 1 0~1 7.5 11.2.20 19:45 Colchester Grimsby 2 3 2~0 11.2.20 19:45 Crewe Crawley Town 2 1 2~1 8.5 11.2.20 19:45 Exeter Oldham 5 1 1~0 11.2.20 19:45 Forest Green Port Vale 2 3 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Leyton Mansfield 2 1 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Morecambe Macclesfield 2 0 1~0 11.2.20 19:45 Newport Walsall 0 0 1~0 11.2.20 19:45 Northampton Swindon 0 1 2~1 11.2.20 19:45 Salford City Plymouth 2 3 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Scnuthorpe Cambridge 0 2 1~1
National League results were unspectacular;
11.2.20 19:45 Solihull Barnet 1 0 1~1 11.2.20 19:45 Eastleigh Fylde 2 2 2~1 11.2.20 19:45 Harrogate Town Yeovil 3 0 1~1 NL ongoing account now reads staked £70, winnings £65 for a £5 overall loss.
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thecurlyone1 reacted to Data in Correct Scores (second shift)
From today until the end of the English season I'll be setting out Excel Solver selections for correct scores from the English leagues and putting a notional £10 bet on each one (that will run into one hellofa stake total by the end).
Experience this season has shown that the National league is not a happy hunting ground for correct score picks so this exercise will concentrate on Premier, Championship, League One & League Two.
I'll publish the National League picks anyway (I have it all set up so no hassle) but they'll be just for curiosity value and not part of the betting returns.
Starting Profit/Loss £0.00
Predictions for 7/8 February 2020
8.2.20 12:30 Everton Crystal Palace 0~1 8.2.20 17:30 Brighton Watford 1~0 9.2.20 14:00 Sheffield United Bournemouth 1~0 9.2.20 16:30 Manchester City West Ham 3~0 7.2.20 19:45 Bristol City Birmingham 1~1 8.2.20 12:30 Wigan Preston 0~0 8.2.20 13:30 Barnsley Sheffield Wednesday 1~2 8.2.20 15:00 Blackburn Fulham 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Brentford Middlesbrough 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Huddersfield Q.P.R. 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Luton Cardiff 2~1 8.2.20 15:00 Reading Hull 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Stoke Charlton 1~2 8.2.20 15:00 Swansea Derby 2~0 8.2.20 17:30 Nottingham Leeds 1~1 9.2.20 13:30 Millwall West Bromwich 1~1 7.2.20 19:45 Lincoln Rotherham 2~1 8.2.20 15:00 AFC Wimbledon Fleetwood Town 2~2 8.2.20 15:00 Blackpool Southend 2~2 8.2.20 15:00 Burton Gillingham 0~0 8.2.20 15:00 Coventry Bolton 3~0 8.2.20 15:00 Doncaster Rochdale 2~1 8.2.20 15:00 Peterborough Oxford 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Shrewsbury Milton Keynes 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Sunderland Ipswich 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Tranmere Portsmouth 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Wycombe Bristol Rovers 2~0 8.2.20 15:00 Bradford Grimsby 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Carlisle Swindon 1~2 8.2.20 15:00 Colchester Plymouth 0~2 8.2.20 15:00 Crewe Oldham 2~1 8.2.20 15:00 Exeter Stevenage 1~0 8.2.20 15:00 Forest Green Walsall 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Leyton Macclesfield 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Morecambe Mansfield 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Newport Cambridge 1~0 8.2.20 15:00 Northampton Port Vale 2~0 8.2.20 15:00 Salford City Crawley Town 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Scnuthorpe Cheltenham 1~1 for info only
8.2.20 13:00 Chesterfield Wrexham 0~1 8.2.20 15:00 Bromley Solihull 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Dagenham & Redbridge Stockport 1~1 8.2.20 15:00 Hartlepool Aldershot 1~1 -
thecurlyone1 got a reaction from Rey86 in i m looking for Second Half stats
https://www.soccerstats.com/halftime.asp?league=england
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thecurlyone1 reacted to kuklachert in Betting on ITF tennis tournaments using statistical models
First results:
I will post totals/ROI at the end of each week.
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thecurlyone1 reacted to Data in Correct scores (what? again?)
£550 staked returned £545.
7 winning correct scores from the 55 selections, with B365 closing odds between 9.00 & 6.00. ALMOST breaking even in such a high mark-up area is good going I reckon.
The Conference (sorry! National League) was the difference between profit & loss, showing a complete blank return from the 12 games. I've said before that the Championship provided poor results using this technique, but that loss pales into insignificance when compared to the National League where the last 3 fixture days have yielded 35 straight failures.
This season's returns league by league (since 1st January)
Premier League, 50 bets, 8 winners, +0.28 returned per each 1 point bet
Championship, 51, 4, -0.46 for each 1 point bet
League One, 56, 8, +0.14 per bet
League Two, 72, 13, +0.25 per bet
National League, 59, 3, -0.65 per bet
ALL: 288 bets, 22 points loss
ALL (without National League): 229 bets, 16.5 points profit.
I'm inclined to keep this going for a while yet, but I'll not bother with the lowest league!
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thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
A few for tomorrow
25.01. home gent 1.92 25.01. away rotherham 2.60 25.01. home ipswich 2.14 25.01. home lens 2.04 25.01. home motherwell 2.42 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to Data in Correct scores (what? again?)
Liverpool saved the weekend for the strategy with a 2-0 victory at 8.00, so not a total wipe out.
Ongoing returns now stand at 33pts returned from 30pts staked, ROI 10%
This week's projected scores are as follows;
Bournemouth Brighton 1~1 Aston Villa Watford 1~1 Everton Newcastle 1~0 Sheffield Utd Man City 0~1 Crystal Palace Southamptn 1~1 Chelsea Arsenal 2~1 Leicester West Ham 1~0 Tottenham Norwich 2~1 Man United Burnley 2~1 Wolves Liverpool 1~2 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to harry_rag in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2019/20
Sunderland win the game 1-0 but a comfortable 11-6 for the hosts on corners. Another win albeit one where anyone would have struggled to get on at the quoted odds.
12 winners and 2 pushes from 20 bets, 5.95 points up with an ROI of 32.16% to advised stakes, 7.2 points up with an ROI of 36% to level stakes.
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thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
Midweek selections
20.01. home west brom 1.92 21.01. away wycombe 4.00 22.01. away fulham 1.96 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
17.01. home fulham 1.95 17.01. away monchengladbach 2.68 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to harry_rag in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2019/20
Disappointing to have a winner but no money on due to missing the price. Update to follow as usual.
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thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
Two for tomorrow
12.01. away lille 2.04 12.01. away farense 2.16 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
2 winners and a loser tonight. Plenty for tomorrow
11.01. away melbourne 2.48 11.01. home perth glory 1.88 11.01. home wellington 2.22 11.01. away notts forest 3.35 11.01. away wycombe 4.90 11.01. home inter 2.22 11.01. home lazio 2.12 11.01. away familicao 3.40 11.01. away dundee utd 2.12 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to harry_rag in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2019/20
The game finished 2-2 but Coventry won the corner match up 7-2.
10 winners and 2 pushes from 18 bets, 4.2 points up with an ROI of 24% to advised stakes, 3.7 points up with an ROI of 20.56% to level stakes.
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thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
Hi all. Had a few days off due to the festivities, I hope all your New Year shenanigans were as good as mines was ?
Missed a few bets, chelsea drawing with brighton would have been a winner, and no doubt a few bets in the lower leagues too but not to worry. Perth glory was a comfortable loser as they won 3-0, but a few bets for tomorrow as outlined below. Cheers
04.01. home sydney fc 1.94 04.01. away mafra (portugal 2) 3.00 04.01. away dundee utd 1.93 04.01. away ayr utd 3.80 04.01. away real madrid 1.93 04.01. away cadiz 3.40 04.01. away almeria 2.46 04.01. away huesca 2.66 04.01. home fuenlabrada 2.40 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
Only one before the turn of the year. Should be a few from New Years Day, but I'll post them up nearer the time
31.12. away perth glory 1.90 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
Okay, so first update of results is here. Good first week, which is unusual as whenever you go live with a system that's usually when it crashes and burns haha. Maybe it's waiting for me to put actual cash down before that happens. In fact, yeah, that's probably it ?
HOME AWAY 26.12. away gent 3.00 -£20.00 1 0 26.12. away west brom 2.00 £9.80 1 1 26.12. away sheff weds 2.88 £9.80 3 2 26.12. away wycombe 5.00 £9.80 2 0 26.12. home peterboro 2.04 £9.80 0 3 26.12. home ipswich 2.06 £9.80 0 0 26.12. away motherwell 2.24 -£12.40 1 2 28.12. home western utd 2.58 £9.80 1 3 28.12. away leicester 2.02 -£10.20 1 2 28.12. home ayr utd 2.20 £9.80 1 2 29.12. away chelsea 2.42 -£14.20 1 2 29.12. away brentford 2.16 £9.80 1 0 29.12. home wycombe 2.60 £9.80 1 4 29.12. away ipswich 3.15 £9.80 5 3 29.12. away oxford 1.88 -£8.80 1 2 29.12. away peterboro 3.30 £9.80 4 0 29.12. away aberdeen 2.56 £9.80 1 1 £39.20 £39.20 £12.80 £12.80 Home Overall Away Overall £39.20 £12.80 -
thecurlyone1 reacted to harry_rag in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2019/20
Can't see a bet this week so looks like we're done for the calendar year.
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thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
Yeah, like I say it can be a bit volatile, but always nice to get a decent start with any new system. A few for tomorrow, a few more for Sunday and I'll update results on Sunday night.
28.12. home western utd 2.58 28.12. away leicester 2.02 28.12. home ayr utd 2.20 -
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thecurlyone1 reacted to harry_rag in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2019/20
MK Dons lose 3-1 but gain 9 corners to the hosts' 5 so the bet would have won even if the handicap had been negative rather than positive.
9 winners and 2 pushes from 17 bets, 2.95 points up with an ROI of 17.88% to advised stakes, 2.45 points up with an ROI of 14.41% to level stakes.
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thecurlyone1 reacted to only1woz in League Table Lays
So, nothing better to do on Xmas morning than research bets for a system you are testing, am I right? ?
So here's the boxing day selections. Grid shows the DATE / HOME or AWAY / SELECTION TO LAY / PRICE in that order. I'll update results on Boxing day night and post selections for the 27th. As ever, any questions, anything unclear, just let me know.
MERRY CHRISTMAS ?
26.12. away gent 3.00 26.12. away west brom 2.00 26.12. away sheff weds 2.88 26.12. away wycombe 5.00 26.12. home peterboro 2.04 26.12. home ipswich 2.06 26.12. away motherwell 2.24