Primevil
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Posts posted by Primevil
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Re: Dubai Carnival
Not at all m8, because if they go a crawl, I beleive there will be a plan b, he has made all in the past... plus been close up of a crawl which he kicked 3 out, and caught em napping..He may do it today, It work with Bay Willow twice, I have confidence in Mullen, Knows what he is doing around here....BTW, Coral and Hills cut to 11/4 now. Hangers on, wretched lot.U not worried about a possible lack of pace mate? I liked this one as well but thought it might not get the race to suit -
Re: Dubai Carnival 3.15 Meydan Layali Al Andalus 3/1 Most Firms 2 star bet for me. What we have here is a handicap, that the selection gets in off the same mark, with Richard Mullen taking over, he could have won last time, but his stable companion finished in front, Today he will get his nose in front, coming late and fast today to nab the front ones late on. He beat a couple of these last time, I dont see them reversing form. 3/1 is a great price. 7/4 on my tissue. Other selections to follow.
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Re: Dubai Carnival
Good write up m8, Ive got two I want to really get stuck into today, but i am not putting them up yet, as everytime we put something up on here, it gets smashed, I dont want to lose the prices. Cheers.Going to post up my selections for tomorrow now but will post up my bets in the morning when more prices are available. 6.10 Meydan Ariete Arrollador EW This horse was one of my first bets of the carnival when he finished an unlucky 2nd. He disappointed last time out but he got no run whatsoever and could have finished much closer with a clear run. He could be a nice price on the back of that run plus the extra furlong here should suit him. He is well drawn in 4 if he can hold his position but I think there is definitely a big handicap in him. 5.35 Meydan Hunters Light This is the best race on the card by some way and a very tough one to fathom out. De Kock has stated that he feels Await the Dawn will need this run so that puts me off him a little. That being said it wouldn’t be the first time that a trainer has said something like that and the horse has won. For me this race revolves around picking the right Godolphin horse. They have 5 entered in the race but I think the two at the head of the betting are the ones to concentrate on. Saint Baudolino is the interesting horse in the race having looked very unlucky last year. He is the current favourite but I get the feeling he might just need the race. I do like Hunter’s Light who was very progressive towards the end of last year. He won a group 3 at Haydock on fast ground and followed that up with a demolition job in a group 2 over in Turkey on an all weather surface. The horse he beat by 5 lengths into 2nd that day was a group 1 winner and there were several smart horses in behind. He then finished 9 lengths behind Cirrus Des Aigles on ground softer than ideal, before going on to win a group 1 in Italy very comfortably. I think 10f is his perfect trip and he clearly likes an artificial surface as he has 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runs. There is every chance there could be even more to come from him, as he is only 5. He is drawn well in 6 and he has the services of SDS, which would make him the Saeed Bin Suroor first choice. 5.00 Meydan Certerach Art Scholar is a horse I like but I think this trip will just stretch him so I would be against him here. Ahzeemah beat several of these last time out and will probably confirm the form with most of them if not all of them but I am going to take him on with the Irish trained Certerach. This horse was beaten by Ahzeemah last time out but finished off his race very well to suggest the step up in trip would suit. He has raced once over this trip where he was a very unlucky 6th behind I have a Dream at Leopardstown. He was travelling much the best in that race but just couldn’t get a clear run and would have gone very close to winning had he got one. I don’t think the trip is an issue with this horse as it could be with some of the others. Michael Halford does very well with his runners in Dubai and I am hopeful of a big run from Certerach tomorrow. He could be a very nice price as well considering there are horses in here with much bigger reputations. 4.25 Meydan Music Chart I backed Shuruq last time out and I thought she was going to win as she was travelling the best coming into the final couple of furlongs but she was outstayed by stablemate Music Chart. With the extra furlong here I don’t see how she can reverse the form so I am going to side with Music Chart. The biggest danger may well come from the Mike de Kock trained Emotif who he thinks is very smart. She has only raced once but beat some experienced rivals on her debut by 4 lengths and could really be anything. She did however suffer a setback when she first came over to Dubai, which ruled her out of the trial. That puts me off slightly so I think it’s safer to side with Music Chart who already has that win under her belt and should improve for the step up to a mile. 3.50 Meydan El Estruendoso As much as I like Hototo, I think he could be vulnerable in the closing stages even with Fallon doing the steering. I am going to take a chance on the Mike de Kock trained El Estruendoso. He was well beaten in the Guineas trial but he should come on plenty for that run. The switch to turf should also suit considering he well on his debut on turf. I actually don’t think this race will take much winning. There are maybe a handful that have a genuine chance of winning this race IMO and he is certainly one of them. Much will depend on Hototo from stall 1. If he is allowed to dictate the pace then he could prove tough to pass. My selection is poorly drawn in 11 but Soumillion has plenty of experience around this track so that is not a problem. De Kock believes this horse will get further in time so I would expect him to be finishing off his race well. Whether he gets up in time is another matter but I am confident of a good run. -
Re: Dubai Carnival GIANT’S Causeway filly Emotif returns to racing in Thursday night’s Listed UAE 1000 Guineas at Meydan and Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa’s runner will be the focus of many a racing enthusiast following her runaway debut win in South Africa last May. Mike de Kock has made no secret of the fact that Emotif is highly regarded by the yard and he said on Tuesday: “Emotif is a very smart filly and we think a helluva lot of her. She had a problem when she arrived in Dubai after travelling from South Africa, suffering from azuturia or ‘tying up’, which kept her out of training for a while. We’ve done as much as we can do with her though, she’s showing us a lot and we’re expecting her to be a huge runner.” Christophe Soumillon will take the ride on Emotif in this $US250 000 event. Await The Dawn (Pat Cosgrave) and Mushreq (Soumillon) will fly the flag in Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge, to be contested over 1900m on the all-weather track. Accomplished stayer Await The Dawn (USA), is a lightly raced five-time winner from nine starts, including a Group 2 and two Group 3s in the UK. He hasn’t raced since finishing unplaced in last year’s Dubai Duty Free on World Cup Night and will make his debut for the yard. Mike said: “This is a very smart horse and he’s working well, but he will need the run. I expect him to do well on this surface and he will improve much with this run under his girth.” Mushreq, Mike said, is very fit and well. “We’re being a bit hard on him but at his rating there’s not much we can do. We’re taking a chance but he’s in there with a chance.” Jardim (Soumillon), has been disappointing so far this season, but he will be having his third run following a rest in a handicap over 2000m on the all-weather. “We’re hoping for a better run,” said Mike. El Estruendoso showed a lack of experience when beaten 7.75 lengths by Soft Falling Rain in his first run back, a fortnight ago, and the stable believes he’ll show a lot more in Race 3, the Meydan Classic Trial over 1400m on turf. Mike commented: “He needs more experience but is likely to show big improvement, he should run well.” Mohammed Khaleel’s Star Empire was beaten only a quarter-of-a-length over 2410m on his return to the track after a two-year layoff recently and he is in good shape for a 2810m handicap this time round. “He’s fitter than last time and we’re happy with his preparation.” Both Royal Ridge and Jet Legend are expected to be suited to the Tapeta surface in Race 7 over 1600m. Royal Ridge (Paul Hanagan) is preferred, but his stablemate is also expected to have a say, as both are working well.
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Re: Dubai Carnival Some cracking races tomorrow...The 5.35 would not be out of place at Royal Ascot, Lets see if we can smashem again...I do have to congratulate paddy power for sticking their necks out first with the prices...The other firms are sheep, do they have odds compilers at ladbrokes and hills anymore?:rollin
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 6th 9 wins 2 2nds 2 3rds..winners on other threads...No wonder the bookies are scared of the people who put up selections. WD all
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Re: Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion > Mon 11th February
yeah, they have 3 home 1 away in the PL in the next month, plus zenit away n home. By the 10th of March. Those LFC supporters will either be claiming he is the best since Dalglish:lol, or screaming for his head, This is the biggest month for LFC, all holidays cancelled you would think. If they dont get 10 points from 12, that thread for CL qualification will be truely snapped. I can tho see them scraping past Zenit.I could be wrong but I'd say CL qualification is much more important to Liverpool's owners than the Europa league... Liverpool have used a mix of players in the Europa league already this season. I think they want both but when it comes down to it CL qualification would be preferable IMO. -
Re: Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion > Mon 11th February I suppose that the price is about right given the last couple of weeks, and im sure they will see this as 3 points, but that just have to turn up attitude in this league is rearing its head again. They are out of the cups domestically, and no one can say they are not outsiders for a CL spot..I dont see that at all. So they travel to Zenit the next day(tuesday), You have to feel BR will want this trophy now to keep the owners happy, or at least reach a final. So will he make changes for monday?, if he does that may be the problem, team news is crucial, Wait n see i say.
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Re: Flat Racing 6th Feb 3.40 Southwell Caledonia Prince 3/1 most places. If I am right, this looks like a serious Paul Blockley plant, and they will back it accordingly in the next half hour. Given top weight in this claimer, they obviousley dont realy want to get rid, but he still comes way out in front, on a track that suits. They should go off pretty quick here, but he wont be far off, and I can see him coming clear winthin the last 2 furlongs, Joe is back on board, very significant. I am on, decent win bet for me.
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 6th Just a side issue to this thread, I really do hope that before people put their selections up on here, if they are backing it themselves, they are doing so before highliting on here. It seems that every horse that is mentioned on here, shortens up within 20 mins of it being advertised. Get yourself on first, then if you want let everyone know. The bookies must love this thread, dozens of free brains working for them.
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 6th 1.30 Southwell Miami Gator. 3/1 Hills bog The run at wolves over 9 f 5 days ago will have put him spot on, he is very well in here on his hcap mark, with a valuable 7lb of the back. It was noticiable that being up with the pace was the place to be yesterday, and this front runner could have his own way up front, this surface holds no fears imo, as he is a soft ground winner. Looks good to me.
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Re: Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion > Mon 11th February
They're also on a massive patch of poor form' date=' and plummeting down the table.... I don't think they'll be top half for very long at this rate :lol[/quote'] I dont doubt your logic with current form etc jase, but we are 2/3 rds thru the season, and it still aint happened. Many people have been undone by the "certs" at home LFC are, I still say they wont beat 61 points, they would have to win 8 draw 3 out the 13 remaining, to achieve this. CL betting says 7/1...should be 700/1. 4th place will hit 70 points min. LFC 12 out of 13 wins to get that.:rollin Brendan would say it is acheivable. Fact of the matter is they are a side that only beat sides below them, and as a previous poster says, not 1 team in the top 10 have they beaten. Until it happens I would never ever say they are certs. -
Re: Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion > Mon 11th February
GL with this, If anyone knows what is required to sufocate LFC its the WBA manager. Yes they should win and some, but come Monday night, the bookies may want to get them, 1.5 should be available. No Bet for me.Going with Liverpool on this one. Two tough away games in a week and I think Brendan Rodgers would have been happy with two points before the games even kicked off. Liverpool showing lately what they are capable of and their strike force boosted by the signing of Daniel Sturridge look top notch. You may argue they deserved to beat both Arsenal and City based on the performances. Last time the two sides met was the very first game of the season when Liverpool were taken down by three goals to nil, they'll want to forget that embarrassment and they'll feel the need for a bit of revenge in this one. Poor recent form is starting to over shadow West Brom's early season triumphs and without a win in 8 consecutive games Anfield isn't the best place to visit. Liverpool in their last three home games have scored 12 goals and conceded exactly 0, winning 4-0, 3-0 and 5-0 respectively. I can see the three points only going one way in this game... Liverpool's. Liverpool @ 4/9 Coral 10 units -1 Liverpool @ Evs Paddy Power 4 units -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Thats an early foal!:welcome
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Re: Best site for analysing form www.youtube.com/watch?v=MD1naT4Y_BY This will show you how to manipulate form from the RP into excel. Hope this helps:ok
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
If you miss it, usually up on bbc player within the hour it finishes :ok -
Re: Manchester United v Everton > Sun 10th February I think last years 4-4 was a freak result. On average MU score 1.7 goals against EFC at old trafford, and EFC average 1.1. 90 games, MU 55% wins, EFC 22%, the rest draws. Could be a good time for EFC to play Man u, with RM on the horizon, and a big buffer in the prem, so I do expect at least 4 changes from Man u to last weeks starting line up, How the play up front could be crucial, as there is not a chance EFC will play any diffrentley to how they have played all season, offensiveley away from home. I would wait until the day, as you also have International games this week, full and U21, so injuries may be key in all games.
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Re: BBOTD > Tuesday 5th February 1.40 Southwell General Tufto 7/1 Paddy Power bog 1 point win The other AW turns back up today after many months off.... Not everyones course but i do find this course easier to narrow down, due to the surface. We have a amature race to start, most of these pilots will be knackered after a mile on this. However Serena Brotherton, will get pulled into this race without having to do much, as GT loves this place, racing now off a stone lighter when last seeing the winners circle over CD. She is one of the most experienced pilots in the race which helps alot. I just have a feeling GT will be primed for this race today, when others are there for experience for the horse and in particular the jockey. Incidently i will be totally against the front two in the maket, and will be laying both of them continualy. AB 7/2, does not convince me in distance, 1 mile 2 max, no more imo. PIOT 7/2, is by echo of light, and green desert on the dam's side, warning signs for this surface. Added to that two very inexperienced pilots, No thank you, cant see them in the winners circle. Win bet for me with a degree of confidence on the selection above.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Maybe maybe not, we all have our points of view. Im looking at it as a tragic phase in this game. As were the other two unfortunate deaths today. The Newbury fall of darlan last year, was simmilar in that he seemed to jump it well enough, however the landing was the issue, his front legs went from underneath. Since 2006, there has been over 500 deaths of race horses from injuries sustained on the course. Hard fact.:sadl was at Doncaster today, booked the day off work as it's not often you get the chance to see such a potentially fantastic race 5 mins from home and it looked all set to be just that right up until the final hurdle. l know it's possibly not right to look to atone blame and in doing so im in now way saying AP does not feel real sadness at Darlan's passing but l have to say l thought he held the horse in behind Rock on Ruby until too late in the day for Darlan to ever get a proper good look at the hurdle. There was an extremely fierce headwind blowing down the course all day today and as such it was probably a tactic that O' Neil. Henderson and AP had all agreed to to keep Darlan in as much cover as possible until the very last minute and then unleash it after the last. Imo AP just kept it in behind for too long and the horse was left badly unsighted and it became impossible for it to get it's legs up in time. -
Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013
The word on the kildare jump scene is' date=' been onto the girl in charge of ' My Tent or Yours'.. they will use this ,as a stepping stone..is in very good form at home..[/quote'] Could be thrown in, but far to short for a very very very competitive hurdle. Inexperience of 20 odd horses around him going helter skelter..Not for me m8. -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread 3 thoroughbreds..paid the price for mine and other peoples entertainment. Any charity that cares for horses after there racing days have finished is well deserved. There are many animal sanctuaries around the country, Im sure they will be pleased to hear from you. www.ror.org.uk/donate.htm I give a few donations to the above, odd couple of tenners here n there, they tell you what its for and are very grateful. Maybe someone can get a just giving page set up for the total of £1000 to be reached, in the name of PL...Just an idea, people then could donate a £1 or two every now and then, and once hit, we could pass it over.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread No consolation backing the winner, but we look at Jump horses compared to 30 odd years ago when i was first punting, the flat bias has taken over in hurdlers to a point were as someone pointed out..They are fragile and more suseptable to falls than before. It is shocking to see, I was up close to synchronised last year, that was appaling, I was physically sick. But the sport will go on, its the risk horse and rider take when travelling at great speed over obstacles. I do know this no horse would jump anything if it did not want to. RIP DARLAN
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Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 Ive got down to one in this very competitive handicap. Off 146 Pearl Swan really does take the eye, He has serious potential to become a 160+ hurdler, He had a run on the flat the other day which will have put him spot on, and the ground will be right up his street. He is going to appreciate what will be a decent pace in here, and his stamina should come into play over the last two flights. 5 points e/w Pearl Swan 10/1 bet365 ladbrokes.
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Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 33 left in.
Dubai Carnival
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Dubai Carnival 3.50 Meydan I'm Back alot of 5/2 around the place. 21 days ago we seen a very good horse in soft falling rain. This is the race to concentrate on, Im Back was the only one to give him a race that day, and I beleive that the turf track will be ideal for him, as I dont see him out of the first 4 in the early stages, hoping he kicks early to stretch them. Hototo is struggling over this distance, and most of the others lack experience, or just not good enough for a conditions event. CS Mike DK horse is an unknown, but i dont beleive the gun will be put to his head today. 3 star win IM BACK.