Primevil
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Posts posted by Primevil
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Re: How do you measure success? Australia will win on Friday, you wont get rich but they were torn to shreads by the papers for what the selectors put out last time. All the big guns back, The aussies expect a win and nothing else. I may start a Cricket thread in April,:-)
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Re: Trading Horses In Running nice stuff, wd Are u looking at ALL races, ?
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Re: Jumps Racing - Tuesday 15th January
:notworthy :notworthy FANDABBYDOZIE2.00 Lingfield - 2pts win Farbreaga @ 14/1 (Bet365) I personally can't fathom why this horse is 14/1 for this dire race personally but so long as there isn't something I'm missing, I'm more than happy to take the price and is worthy of a decent bet given the value. You can never be too certain in such weak affairs but this one definitely has the credentials to take this. He is the top-weight but the very capable Jeremiah McGrath takes off 5lbs to ease the burden and his form isn't too bad. I find issues with all of these really - Dalyrymple is honest enough but not convinced he ideally wants 2m4f on heavy and doesn't win often. Stamina also looks a concern with Cuckoo Rock so I think there can be an upset. Jamie Poulton's runner did at least get his head in front two starts back and for all it's true he had the run of a very bad race it was a win and it was his first run for a while so perhaps needed it anyway. Either side of that he was staying on into midfield in stronger races (2m1f and 2m4f) and looks like a testing 2m4f is ideal. He made all when winning on his reappearance so on his last run it seems plausible that he'll go back to racing more prominently which looks sure to help. He was beaten 42l last time but was 7th of 17 and was off 2lbs higher without a claimer on board. He's effectively 7lbs lower here and the winner won by 17l to exaggerate the margin. That one has subsequently placed twice including off 130 last time. The race that my selection competed in at Sandown was full of types rated between 110-120 so it was a lot better than this race where his highest-rated rival runs off 92.He's in decent heart, handles conditions, has won recently and drops markedly down in grade, so looks a crazy price to me with questions hovering above many of these. -
Re: Jumps Racing - Tuesday 15th January 4.30 Wolverhampton - SUMMERINTHECITY 9/2 in shop. William Hill(shops).:p:p. 5 points each way, 1/4 odds(please dont withdraw one)My top 3 in this race summerinthectity 62 atlantis crossing 59 irishheartbeat 57 Summerinthecity, had a couple of runs for Dandy now, and showed last time that he is starting to get his "mojo" back, only being out run by getting caught in the last few yards after hitting the front over a furlong out. Todays pace will be fast n furious, so for me its tailor made for something getting there late on. The selection has a ideal position in stall 1 to track the pace and be out of trouble, and use his kick without being hindered. Running today of the same mark as last time, with the same "strong" jockey on board, this once rated 90 horse only a couple of years ago, can recapture the winning thread today imo. A strange buy for the owner, a 6yo gelding, but he must have been convinced by the trainer that he could recapture his old form, if thats right after the very good showing, creating a very decent time that day..He should be able to beat this lot today. The other two in my ratings are also horses that need to be produced late, however given all the above, Im convinced the selection will get the run of the race. Surely wont be out the frame!:cigar
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Re: Trading/Scalping the Horses....
Lay in play...Thin ice my freind.:wall :wall:zzz:zzz:zzz:zzz:zzz Fcuk me!!! I've been putting this off for months, feeling that it would be ineviatable that I'd try this one day.... How boring?!?!?! Was using Gruss. Like watching paint dry... +2, +3, -2, +6, +1, -17, +2, +3, -127(!!!!!!!!!!! - Left a bet in-play by accident not knowing the software!), +2, +5, -2, +3... Bored, bored, bored - anyone else had anymore successful ventures into this murky world?? For my next (and possibly final trick), I will be venturing into the world of the 'bot'!! But only if I can find some suitable garbage to instruct!! I'm thinking back, to lay in-play at the moment.... Research imminent!!:unsure -
Re: How do you measure success?
I ll let you know what im doing. After the Grand national, the Cricket season starts, now if you have the time on your hands and the knowledge that is the next move for me, I paper traded from april to September, on 132 domestic games, in limited overs and some county games, I was surprised at the liquidity and the ROI and profit that can be made. Now i hear the word volitile being said...But the bookies are not ahead in this game as they are with Racing and Footie, I beleive there is a pot of gold here for those who will put in the effort. Here is one to follow for all. Division 2 Lancashire around 9/4 to win it, As sure as day follows night, they will tear into this division, to many quality internationals available to them, through out the season. This is their #1 priority and the overseas player they have this season shows that. My freinds they will be odds on by the end of May.:D Cricket may be a way forward to Neil and SaintsIts all about laying- my averson seems to be gradually expiring now, although I did baulk at one yesterday. Can't be at any price though. With bookies offering an ever increasing number of markets on win racing- insurance two places, place only three places, w/o x horse etc- it is likely to be harder and harder to find an edge and we'll all have to resort to laying, but this can only last for a maximum of another five years and probably three really. The second one of them offers 'back this horse not to win!' I'll be out. I'm thinking of resorting to NFL/NCAA and NBA spreads. The problem is lack of liquidity in the run up but with UK bookies not yet having a firm handle on those there are plenty of decentish opportunities, although, again, its only a matter of time. As I have little actual interest in those sports I think I'd have to be seriously fed up of racing to consider them. -
Re: BBOTD Tuesday 15th Jan
1 point win for this thread...sorry forgot to mention:D4.30 Wolverhampton - SUMMERINTHECITY 4/1 Betvictor lads william hill 365 BOG My top 3 in this race summerinthectity 62 atlantis crossing 59 irishheartbeat 57 Summerinthecity, had a couple of runs for Dandy now, and showed last time that he is starting to get his "mojo" back, only being out run by getting caught in the last few yards after hitting the front over a furlong out. Todays pace will be fast n furious, so for me its tailor made for something getting there late on. The selection has a ideal position in stall 1 to track the pace and be out of trouble, and use his kick without being hindered. Running today of the same mark as last time, with the same "strong" jockey on board, this once rated 90 horse only a couple of years ago, can recapture the winning thread today imo. A strange buy for the owner, a 6yo gelding, but he must have been convinced by the trainer that he could recapture his old form, if thats right after the very good showing, creating a very decent time that day..He should be able to beat this lot today. The other two in my ratings are also horses that need to be produced late, however given all the above, Im convinced the selection will get the run of the race. -
Re: BBOTD Tuesday 15th Jan 4.30 Wolverhampton - SUMMERINTHECITY 4/1 Betvictor lads william hill 365 BOG My top 3 in this race summerinthectity 62 atlantis crossing 59 irishheartbeat 57 Summerinthecity, had a couple of runs for Dandy now, and showed last time that he is starting to get his "mojo" back, only being out run by getting caught in the last few yards after hitting the front over a furlong out. Todays pace will be fast n furious, so for me its tailor made for something getting there late on. The selection has a ideal position in stall 1 to track the pace and be out of trouble, and use his kick without being hindered. Running today of the same mark as last time, with the same "strong" jockey on board, this once rated 90 horse only a couple of years ago, can recapture the winning thread today imo. A strange buy for the owner, a 6yo gelding, but he must have been convinced by the trainer that he could recapture his old form, if thats right after the very good showing, creating a very decent time that day..He should be able to beat this lot today. The other two in my ratings are also horses that need to be produced late, however given all the above, Im convinced the selection will get the run of the race.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ January 2013
Send him all our best will you.."cpo class act"Just to let everyone know; Cpo has contacted me and stated he will be off for a month at least due to his ever growing work commitments. He is studying for a Chemical Engineering degree and needs to purely concentrate on that for a while and realises the PL and horse racing as a whole needs to take a back seat. We wish him well and hope to see him back for Cheltenham:ok -
Re: How do you measure success?
As with any business, surley it has to be over 12 monthsYield although can be confusing as i was looking at my thread on trends which has a 12% yield but has run for over 5 years, so what is the yield in last 3, 6, 9 12 months, it could be -50%? So when is success measured? -
I have left putting the following selection until late for my own reasons. But still an hour early.:D 4.10 Plumpton @ 7/2 will hill sporting bet skybet OVERDANTE This IMO is the best handicapped horse of the day, this very lightly raced 11 yo, goes well fresh, and 2 miles on soft ground is ideal. C Longsdon had this horse peppered with entries in the last month, but has chosen the track were he was doing cartwheels coming down to the last, when last seen here. That was over 2 fur further than todays distance. I can see him being produced at the last today, and kicking clear today. His opposition is very poor fair indeed, I beleive today is the day for this horse. May strart fav here. Max win here 10 points.
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Re: BBOTD Monday 14th January
n1 returned 1/2 fav1:10 Plumpton - Valdez - Back Back down in class after running in a much stronger race than this lto and can return to winning ways after winning at this level 2 starts ago. Should take all the beating in this 1pt win @ 4/7 VC BOG -
Re: How do you measure success? If your betting bank is constantly in the BLACK, for the whole year, and you never had to top it up... and take the profit out to buy a new pair of shoes, or a jaguar, or something in the middle...That is a success. But to make a living from betting, i.e pay your monthly bills, from your betting bank..and you never have to add to your bank, that my freinds is even more of a success, the pressure you are under to achive such a feat for 12 months, deserves a trophy, and a new pair of shoes IMO. Anything less than either of the above on the year, you have not been succesful in the art of gambling for that year. Harsh but true,
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Re: Southampton v Everton > Mon 21st January Out of all the games over next weekend, this is the one that smacks of a draw.....However no decision can be made with 7 days to go, and team news crucial, who knows what will happen in the transfer market between now and then.
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Re: Combination Tricast Bet My guess is they will void it, unless an independant which may pay you as a good gesture and combine your stake n bet to forcast. Dont hold your breath as you say. In future ask the person behind the counter to bring up on the tv, which races are tricast races for that day.
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Re: Flat Racing Monday 14th January 2.20 Wolves EYELINE @16/1 2.5 point each way, 365 PP lads sky victor boyle BOG On first look you would say "no chance", and that may be right post race, but i have different feelings about this. Yesterday i tipped red dragon who won off 63, and will now be a high 60's horse. EYELINE runs today off 55, he finished 3 1/2 lens behind red dragon. The horse gets cheekpieces for the first time today, which alone will bring out improvement IMO, however you have to notice the eyecatching jockey booking...How many Martin Dwyer rides for Hollinshead are few and far between. The run behind red dragon was over 7 f, and was leading all at the furlong marker, the step down is in his favor, and rattled home from the rear at kempton a couple of starts before that off 52 beaten 2 lens into 4th with 3 70 plus rated horses in front. He is 4lb better off with todays fav, for a 6 len beating, but found a load of trouble with an in experienced apprentice on board. All in all 16/1 is a great price if everything goes right today, and with the headgear and the jockey he is well worth a punt.
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Re: BBOTD Monday 14th January 2.20 Wolves EYELINE @16/1 0.5 point each way, 365 PP lads sky victor boyle BOG On first look you would say "no chance", and that may be right post race, but i have different feelings about this. Yesterday i tipped red dragon who won off 63, and will now be a high 60's horse. EYELINE runs today off 55, he finished 3 1/2 lens behind red dragon. The horse gets cheekpieces for the first time today, which alone will bring out improvement IMO, however you have to notice the eyecatching jockey booking...How many Martin Dwyer rides for Hollinshead are few and far between. The run behind red dragon was over 7 f, and was leading all at the furlong marker, the step down is in his favor, and rattled home from the rear at kempton a couple of starts before that off 52 beaten 2 lens into 4th with 3 70 plus rated horses in front. He is 4lb better off with todays fav, for a 6 len beating, but found a load of trouble with an in experienced apprentice on board. All in all 16/1 is a great price if everything goes right today, and with the headgear and the jockey he is well worth a punt.
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Re: Arsenal v Manchester City > Sun 13th January
Well done' date=' mate !!! For me that was a penalty but it wasn't a red card. The referee made a mistake which changed the game. The result would have been different if it was 11 against 11.[/quote'] He was last man(outfield) between him and the goal, so it has to be a sending off. as he was stopping a goal scoring opportunity. That is the rule. -
Re: BBOTD - Sunday 13th of January
:cigar wd...The perfect example of how to kid a horse....Wolv 4.00 - Kames Park - win at 7/2 bog PP Veteran, 11 years old, who's in cracking form Ran a close second in a class 3 handicap a few days ago and drops right down to class 6 today Has won several times over CD and off higher marks -
Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sun 13th January Liverpool beaten again this season by a club above them. They remain in 8th after this result, and have still not beaten a side in the top ten of the BPL. After 22 games coming up to 2/3 rds of the season played they are undoubtably a mid table side. Well done to all who took the incredible EVENS about Manchester United on this game, and would not be diswayed by old time history. Final score Man Utd 2 Liverpool 1 WD all
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Re: Arsenal v Manchester City > Sun 13th January The stats say that both teams have scored an average of 2 goals per game, and they let an average of 1 goal per game. Not sure what the result will be .. But will be shocked if both teams dont score here, this to me has to be the bet. Cant see anything else. 1.63 betfair 5 points BTTS
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Re: Flat Racing > Sunday 13th January
WD :cow 1 point e/w Lucky 15..a whopping 254.13 profit12.55 Scottsville: Always Al @ 2/1 Sportingbet - 6pts win Always Al looks hard to beet in this MR 91 Handicap. He won a better Handicap at Clairwood one month ago in good style from the front and followed up with a fantastic effort in the Grade 3 Christmas Handicap at the same track when finishing only half lengths beaten in 3rd after setting a frenetic pace. This here tomorrow is easier and it shouldn't be a problem to get the early lead and then to dictate the tempo after his liking. Hell appreciate the step down in trip to 7f as well as the last race stretched a bit his stamina as we've seen. There will a bit cut in the ground tomorrow which should be in his favour as he has a very good record if the word soft appears in the going description. Overall it's hard to see him getting beat here. 13.10 Turffontein: Millennium Wind @ 10/1 Sportingbet - 2pts win Millennium Wind looks the crucial horse in this race in my mind as he shares form with many of the horses in this field and has on to past form a big chance as he's very well in the weights. He gets a pretty good chance by the handicapper despite coming into this race with solid enough looking form. He ran with credit in two strong handicaps in December, yet his Merit Rating drops from 82 to 78. He won in 2012 two very competitive races of higher marks over course and distance, so I assume he should have every chance to run a huge race in this open looking contest tomorrow. 13.30 Wolverhampton: Spirit Of Gondree @ 7/1 Bet365 - 3pts win Spirit Of Gondree was travelling much the best turning for home here at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago but experienced an absolute nightmare in the closing stages as he simply no room to go. His jockey tried desperately to find a gap and almost manoeuvred the horse like a bulldozer trough the field from 2f out. Finally half a furlong out he was in the clear and in a matter of strides he finished like a train to take easily the 3rd place just hands and heels ridden. There is no doubt that he was the best horse in the race which goes along with the fact that he is now very well handicapped again being allowed to race off 3lb below his last winning mark. The race tomorrow is a big field and he has a wide draw to overcome again but there is no doubt that Spirit Of Gondree is in fantastic shape and is a way too big price in my mind. 14.20 Turffontein: Alexandra Palace @ 7/2 Sportingbet - 4pts win Alexandra Palace looks a hugely exciting prospect from the De Kock yard as he cost around €250.000 as a yearling and is the least exposed horse in this Listed contest for 3yo's. He got off the mark at his second attempt in most impressive fashion, slaughtering a decent field where only the eventual 2nd was able to mount a challenge but had to be fully driven out in order to do so while AP kicked easily away in the final furlong only hands and heels ridden eventually to win the race. He was very impressive on his debut as well when he had a nightmare run actually due to being bumped at the start and a slipping saddle yet he finished like a train in the closing stages to land the 2nd place. This tomorrow is a big step up in class obviously and there are some fine horses in the race, most arguably Sabadell, who sprang a surprise by finishing 2nd in the G2 Dingaans as a 50/1 outsider in December. But Alexandra Palace looks to have tons of potential and is a great price here I think. -
Re: Flat Racing > Sunday 13th January
TY betting baffles me sometimes, how that one he beat last time was backed into 5/4 is beyond me, I had BOG so 7/2 is great, the 2nd swerved about in front which gave the selection a second chance, but ill take that little bit of luck, plenty goes against you in this game.:D:clap:clap -
Re: Flat Racing > Sunday 13th January 2.30 Wolverhampton - 10pt win Red Dragon @ 11/4 PP WH Bluesq SKY Red Dragon is sureley a cut above these, I have him as a stand out bet on my ratings, 9 clicks clear of everything else. Winning for the first time LTO over CD, he realy did win very comfortably he beat the other joint fav Blazeofenchantment by 2lens, and is a pound better off today. This is no class 6 horse, surely class 3 or even higher in time, a mile in time will be the limit however. I can only see a comfortable win here after being highley tried early in his first few runs taking on 100+ rated horses without disgracing, Charlie hills had a winner the other day, so has started well with the few runners he has out early. I fully expect the horse to be clear fav today on the off. Max bet for me today. Red Dragon
Australia vs Sri Lanka - ODI Series & 2xT20 Internationals
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
Re: Australia vs Sri Lanka - ODI Series & 2xT20 Internationals Australia: Michael Clarke ©, George Bailey, Xavier Doherty, Moises Henriques, Phillip Hughes, David Hussey, Mitchell Johnson, Glenn Maxwell, Clint McKay, Mitchell Starc, Matthew Wade (wk), David Warner. All the big guns back for Friday, after being lambasted, Selector gone back to Africa...The press creamed the selectors after the other day. Easy win for Australia IMO, 1.5 but they will win.