Primevil
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Posts posted by Primevil
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Re: Dubai Carnival
Yes some great racing ahead, did you see the almighty mess up by SDS in the group 2 last thursday. He needs to be smarter than that, Jockeys will look to get the best beaten in any way they can, and in this race they give him no room to manouvre, I think that may be a wake up call for him, and he needs to be smarter against top jockeys from other nations. For me he is still along way short of dettori..Tacticaly speaking.Thanks mate. Couple of big races on Thursday. UAE 1000 Guineas and round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge. I imagine Music Chart will go off favourite for the Guineas and should take all the beating. The other big race could be a good one as Godolphin have some of their big guns entered. Capponi who finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup last year is entered up and so is the fascinating French recruit Saint Baudolino. Very excited to see Saint Baudolino on his first start for Al Zarooni as he was top class last year and is unlucky not to be a multiple group 1 winner. Add to that the 2 ex Aiden O'Brien horses Await the Dawn and Daddy Long Legs who could be having their first runs for De Kock. Could be a very good race! -
Re: BBOTD Monday 4th not cylinders ....Firing on all...sorry
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Re: BBOTD Monday 4th 3PM DONCASTER. Rock on Ruby 2/1 hills stan james bog I have woken this morning and woken to see free money in this race. We are talking about a reigning Champion Hurdler. So we have Darlan, who won a christmas hurdle on bottomless ground, which IMO was the worst christmas hurdle in many a year, and as far as i am aware the race stinks and is no indication to forthcoming champions, it is a high rated handicap race imo. So back to the selection, we know he loves to quicken up of this sort of ground, and he is the pure class in this field. Harry fry has looked after him for 18 months now, and will know what is required here. He led at the last at cheltenham last time out, only to get a little tired in the bog ground, he will be fresh as a daisey today, and i expect him to put darlan in his place. Looks nailed on to me at a outstanding price. Oh and if it has not been lost on anyone, Henderson is not in the top of his form, a handful of winners in the last few weeks, says his horses are not cylinders , that has to be a concern.
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Re: Dubai Carnival
The official time keeper of Meydan racing is Longines and if you watch the reply of the race on the Dubai Racing Club website then the clock is stopped at 1.47.83 but like you said the Racing Post have it down as a much slower time. Still I think he is the one to be on in the Dubai Duty Free. Racebets currently go 6/1 with him. He had a terrible race the other day where he got no luck in running whatsoever. That's probably a good thing as his price is still a very tempting one' date=' whereas had he won last Thursday I would imagine it would be much shorter.[/quote'] Nice to see you back CPO...Been doing ok with Meydan and Jebel, smashed the bar in the last on saturday...KAISS..beaten a nose, got 50/1 on Betfair..:$, traded out my stake, but that was it.....So unlucky to be snatched up 50 yards out. But we all know who the best apprentice in europe is...his 7lb is like a stone. Champion jockey without a doubt in the next five years, Mick Halford's little diamond. -
Re: Manchester City v Liverpool > Sun 3rd February As ever with these two wide open game,,,here we go , Any score on the cards +3.5 overs 7/4 william hill. 15.5 points. All above the skylark:cow
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Re: West Bromwich Albion v Tottenham Hotspur > Sun 3rd February
+15.5 points..Nice :nanaI have to go for a boring game here, maybe 1-0 either way, Spurs and WBA are struggling to score at the moment. Their last 2 meetings 1-1 1-0. Under 2.5 10 points victor Spus 1-0 9/1 victor 1 point wba 1-0 12/1 victor 1 point 1-1 6/1 victor 1.5 points no goal scorer 12/1 victor 1 point -
Re: West Bromwich Albion v Tottenham Hotspur > Sun 3rd February I have to go for a boring game here, maybe 1-0 either way, Spurs and WBA are struggling to score at the moment. Their last 2 meetings 1-1 1-0. Under 2.5 10 points victor Spus 1-0 9/1 victor 1 point wba 1-0 12/1 victor 1 point 1-1 6/1 victor 1.5 points no goal scorer 12/1 victor 1 point
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Re: RACE IN FOCUS - The Betfair Hurdle (Schweppes, Tote trophy) Newbury 9th Feb 2013 I am waiting for the decs to come out, we should be down to around 45 entries come tomorrow. One thing for sure the word "good" wont appear in the going come saturday. Soft and Heavy will be the two words used, a pretty dry week forcast until thursday n friday were they will have alot of rain.
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Re: BBOTD 3rd Feb Sunday
Sorry that 11/1 with WH BOG,,typo...In fact its 12/1 with sportingbet..But i cant get that...Joke bookmaker3.40 LING MISSIONAIRE, 10/1 hills BOG Down to a ridiculous mark, 55 plus 7lb off....Good jockey. Now today this sometime front runner tackles his best distance IMO, 1 mile. I expect a gamble and a half today, kickem out make all...Job Done as they say. The trainer and the dirty AW, have they done it before? -
Re: BBOTD 3rd Feb Sunday 3.40 LING MISSIONAIRE, 10/1 hills BOG Down to a ridiculous mark, 55 plus 7lb off....Good jockey. Now today this sometime front runner tackles his best distance IMO, 1 mile. I expect a gamble and a half today, kickem out make all...Job Done as they say. The trainer and the dirty AW, have they done it before?
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Re: Bent AW Racing.....
This is how Eddie Ahearn works out his probability, In fact his Law team has this as a major mitigating circumstance.To judge, mathematically, how representative your results are, you need to calculate the Chi Squared value for each sample. To do this, Google ‘Archie Score’. This will tell you how likely it is that your results have come about by pure chance. Also, whenever you use a sample of data, there is a Margin of Error associated with the results. The MoE is given by 1 divided by the square root of the sample size. The MoE on your Class 5 and above results is 3.3%. Your true ROI therefore lies somewhere between 24.3% and 17.7%. The MoE on your Class 6/7 results is 3.8%. Your true ROI therefore lies somewhere between 10.3% and 2.7%. -
Re: Betfair "Bot" One License usually gives you 2 computers(or media) to run off, be careful when downloading.:ok
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 2nd February So I may be way out here or spot on. James Quinn after riding a 16/1 yesterday at Ling(to which I was on:nana), I look then at his booked rides...He jumps the red eye to Meydan. Interesting i thought, who is paying his bus fare over there for two rides. So he rides for the same owner trainer, only to jump a flight back tomorrow, now I know jockeys do it all the time, but for him to jump a plane over there is rare. So we see he is on a 8/1 shot and a 50/1 shot. I am thinking the 8/1 is there to lose its maiden tag, then hit a mark of around 86, to be handicapped in the future of a low weight, were our 8 stone man steps in. For all im trying I cant give the 50/1 shot a hope. 2.50 Meydan DARBANDIKHAN 8/1 all Bookmakers that i can see BOG 1 point win, little bigger on the machine.
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Re: Cheltenham Ante Post Competition Part 2 ~ Entries in by Feb 1st
Yeah 17 days, only 2 weeks diff. Anyway id like to know your ones if thats possible:ok17 days actually ;) Lol. I had some as well but was waiting to look at the stuff released yesterday. Given my recent record they'd probably all have come last! -
Re: Bent AW Racing.....
No probs M8...my fault...now were did i put those tablets!Beat of Luck with those. Just in case it's not clear - I was discussing the ride on Mary's Pet - just in case things got muddled! -
Re: The very best jockeys V The also rans.
Two stunning jockey's' date=' think you are being a little harsh in pointing out a blip on one race, pretty sure R.Moore has just as much respect for A.Kirby, as A.Kirby has for R.Moore.[/quote'] J2S...Not saying he is not a good jockey, and probably best of the division he is in, but to me its like comparing De Gea with Scmichale... In sport there is always someone better, and in a driving finish on the flat, since the longfellow, there is no one better IMHO. BTW look at bent aw racing thread, for some insight to follow into the race.:ok -
Re: Bent AW Racing.....
Am more than happy to take that on board as given the on course drift I assumed and gamble was off!!! Because so much/some of it is bent' date=' I'm getting to suspicious/cynical of everything!![/quote'] M8 I am very suspicious and cynical about this sport, but occasionaly you get races that are 100% straight. If anyone did not put the two winners(nose in it) down for later on///// for early spring Ling Derby, Doncaster, or even Ireland...They have not got a clue about the game. That was just about the sweetest run race I have seen on the AW all season. 2min 4s, outstanding time for the day, and probably in a long time. Infinate Magic King George River Big money to be made following these two.:ok -
We all know about the horse being its best on the day, However sometimes the difference is maginal and it really comes down to a jockey being world class and one who thinks he is good until he comes up against someone who is just better at the sport. Today in the 3.45 Ling. Adam Kirby who has rode all before him over the winter, came up against the very best in a driving finish, and on 10/10 occasions this winter Kirby would have won the race because of the calibre he rides against, but today it shows why when the top races are on offer over the summer his agent finds it almost impossible to get him rides. Have a look at the race again, head on if you can, and Kirby thinks he has won at the 100 yards marker and tries just to push out to the line, Ryan Moore has other ideas and gets 4 cracks into his horse to win by a nose. Premiership V championship all day. If you have any examples thru the season were you see it, please put them up on this thread so we can review them, Thank You. Adam Kirby king of the all weather, but put in his place today by someone who vists occasionally. I hope Ryan Moore has a better season and luck than he had last year with injuries etc. Because when he is fit and other the horses, there is no better IMO.
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Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013
That should read down from 64 to 60..off 55 with the claim.1PM Lingfield. On The Feather 10/1 BOG hills 1 point win. Down to 64, plus 5lb off with WTD, surely has a shout now up to 2 mile on the flat. Handicapped to win, but you know this AW, its like finding a needle in a haystack. -
Re: BBOTD 1st Feb 2013 1PM Lingfield. On The Feather 10/1 BOG hills 1 point win. Down to 64, plus 5lb off with WTD, surely has a shout now up to 2 mile on the flat. Handicapped to win, but you know this AW, its like finding a needle in a haystack.
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Re: Cheltenham Ante Post Competition Part 2 ~ Entries in by Feb 1st
OK! My question was to Mr Hills, All i seen was the title. "Entries in by Feb 1st". But hey bigger things to worry about in life. :cigarPart 2 is open now until the end of January Your too late! You had a full month to put your entries in -
Re: Cheltenham Ante Post Competition Part 2 ~ Entries in by Feb 1st Entries in by Feb 1st, thats today. Why close early m8. £50 double Bobs Worth 3/1 GC ladbrokes Oscar whiskey 5/1 World H Ladbrokes. THX
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Re: Bent AW Racing..... 3.30 ling, NIGE DENTANT, 6.4 4th in on the exchanges, but went off 9/4 fav, false fav...and finished 2nd to last...Tony Enniss just sumed it up, its happening far to often on the all weather, false prices at sp. How the hell you try and work it out in the shop. Yep you got to love the bookies for forcing their own prices up:wall
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Re: BBOTD - Thursday 31st of January
Well' date=' that's your view and I respect that and if you backed him at short odds I understand the frustration. But I just didn't see what you have seen. Majuro got 3f out outpaced and had to make his jockey work hard to get him even back into contention with the field. He was then back in a decent enough position on the outside but simply didn't pick up as much as some would have hoped. The jockey rode the horse forward and tried to stir it to victory. It just didn't work out. The horse wasn't good enough today. Absolutely nothing wrong with the ride in my mind. That's racing.[/quote'] I did not back him, far from it. The poor people who seen this as a good thing i feel sorry for, for a horse to drift the way he did pree off in a 4 horse race was enough to know, I did put the drift up pre race. He is most definately the force of old, and on the handicap he could not be beaten, only if the jockey give them enough rope and ride him totally diffrent from when he wins or runs well. He did that. We will agree to disagree, and yes thats AW racing for you.
Dubai Carnival
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Dubai Carnival
You think like me on this score...weird...In that race of SDS, he had 1 opportunity to get up the inside of the Belgium..(another top rider) after 3 furlongs,( and i dont know but you must need a second sense at 40 mph of what jockeys are trying to do), he reigned back and sat on the rails, LD or RM i feel would have none of that, they would have got there, from then on, he was always in trouble. The horse is 10lb better than that run, but we may reap dividends for that, here is hoping. As for RM, he is "the best" riding at the moment, when he is fully fit, and lets hope he stays that way, no one comes close, I beleive he will be very eager to get that champion jockey back, and I will be backing him to do so. I did make a comparison to him being in the premiere and adam kirby being in the championship, but not everyone agrees..adam kirby is good in his own sphere, but sometimes in sport there are just better...That is the case here. BTW look at the 3.45 Ling last friday, youll see how good the man is, and also the two horses involved, keep them in your notebook, i am convinced they are Linfield Derby bound, a class 4 on the day, which was run at class 2 fractions.;)