Primevil
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Posts posted by Primevil
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Re: Dubai Carnival IGUGU...went off to early, needed the race....no wonder CORALS went 5/4...this morning they knew. A track record was broken here.
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Re: Dubai Carnival two 2nds so far..6/1 n 11/1 sp. 4.25. IGUGU, is a very good filly. Prohibitable odds but I dont see anthing troubling her. She is as good a thing as you will see for a 8/13 shot, as a proven G1 performer, she is the only 1 in here, Sajjhaa is a G2 winner, but really should be filling second, I see this as the fc, and Sajjhaa trying to nick it early in the straight, but the M D K filly getting past in the last furlong. Straight win IGUGU and FC with Sajjhaa. The fc should pay around 6/4.
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Re: Dubai Carnival 3.50 PLANTAGENET 10/1 ew Last years winner steps up again here, and to be honest why should he not run a great race again? After two decent warm ups he should be cherry ripe, well in here again, I expect him to be bang there, and maybe win again.
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Re: Dubai Carnival Another great day at Meydan coming up. 2.45 ARAB bred horses. NO BET 3.15 So Beuatiful Paul Hanagan 13/2 most places. Bought out of france after dotting up in a G3 in france, was no match for the very good sharestan, who is G1 rated in a conditions event here, but still finished a decent second, since then ran twice in G2's without really being asked in the race, steps into a handicap here, but gets in lightly on his best,
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Re: Queens Park Rangers v Manchester United > Sat 23rd February Jones out, have not lost with jones in this season, however won more without him...All round they will have too much for QPR, and with Jones only having an outside chance of playing against RM, whoever comes in will be playing their socks off to keep the place.
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Re: Queens Park Rangers v Manchester United > Sat 23rd February United take it easy!, you are having a laugh here.. I do expect them to make changes, but these players are at the top of their game, and with plenty on offer for the youngsters who are playing, a very very very poor QPR, should be worried. A united win, everything else is pure hoping against the grain.
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Re: BBOTD - Monday 18th of February 2013 2.50 southwell wychwoods wood. Stable bang in form, very good young lad on, lot run out of it in a decent race at Doncaster but beat the rest out of site. ground and track sure to suit, being up with the pace from the off. 5/6 William hill bog, maybe a tad skinny but don't see the horse in any danger here. good win bet for me.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
If anyone does not think TS is not courted by bookmakers, wake up and smell the coffee....He gets big money, to let a certain bookie know first......My comment about Tom deliberately tipping a NR was only in jest, surely even you could have seen that. My real concern is that he is courting a bookie.Surely this can't be right. What's the chances that L.adbrokes get prior notification of what his selection is going to be and adjust the odds to whatever stance they are going to take. As for not having a clue about his tipping record, this NH season alone he has tipped numerous ante post NRs. As I have mentioned in the past there is a website which displays all his past tips and has various profit and loss analysis. In future please don't take my posts too seriously. Erhaab. -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Black Caviar breaks the 1.000m track record at Flemington on her reappearance. What a beast! She ran the last 600m in 31.43! Splits: 10.37' date=' 10,21, 10.17, 11.05. Hope they bring her back to Ascot... would be great to see her winning there with more authority as she is entitled to do so. Time to to go to bed again for me now though...[/quote'] Yep watched it m8,,,,,,,awesome -
Re: Flemington Betting 16/02/2013
UNlucky........faced the wind on his own...collered last 50 ydsFlemington Betting: Decircles to break a run of outs and continue Danny O'Brien's hot run of form
FLEMINGTON RACE 8 @ 5:10pm AEDT: The Lawn Handicap is a 1200m race for 3 year olds and upwards rated between 0-89 where the 3.4 favourite with Bet365 is DECIRCLES.
HOW THE RACE WILL BE RUN: Doesn’t look huge speed on paper. LE BONSIR and CHELEMBRA look the sole on pacers in the race. INSTALLMENT and perhaps DECIRCLES can settle next in line from IT’S PRINCE. The rest of the field settle midfield and beyond in a race where the on-pacers look to be suited.
RACE ANALYSIS: DECIRCLES run first up suggested he could be in for a good campaign. He resumed over 1000m in this class and found them a bit sharp in the early stages and got back to near last in the run. As they turned for the straight he was a mile off the eventual winner Rescue Mission but unleashed a massive finishing burst to just miss beating him on the line. Rescue Mission has since gone onto to run well at Group 3 level and Members Joy who ran 4th in the race has gone on to run a close up second in a 3 year olds fillies Group 3 race, so the form looks strong. Today 1200m down the Flemington straight suits ideally, he does boast a close up 2ndbehind First Command in the Listed Kensington Stakes last preparation which reads very well for this race.
http://www.betzone.com.au/flemington-betting-decircles-to-break-a-run-of-outs-and-continue-danny-o-brien-s-hot-run-of-form -
Champion sprinter Black Caviar has made a triumphant return with a commanding victory in the race renamed in her honour at Flemington.
Commencing what is expected to be her final campaign, the six-year-old is now undefeated in 23 starts following the all-the-way win under regular jockey Luke Nolen in the 1000m straight-course feature now known as the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes. It's the third straight time the Peter Moody-trained star has won the race. Racing for the first time since her triumph in the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes (1200m) at Royal Ascot last June, Black Caviar slammed her rivals in a course record time with stablemates Moment Of Change and Golden Archer second and third respectively. "I'm just so proud of her... I'm a little bit emotional for the first time, **** it's good to have her back,'' Moody said. The win moves the sprinter to within one of Kingstown Town's record of 14 group one wins. Read more: http://www.news.com.au/top-stories/champion-sprinter-black-caviar-surges-to-lightning-stakes-win-her-23rd-consecutive-victory/story-e6frfkp9-1226579423363#ixzz2L2YqQguK:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap There are a few jockeys in the UK, who would have got her beat!:lol:lol -
Re: BBOTD friday 15th february 3.30 Sandown Master of the Game. 4/6 hills bog. Struggling to find some value today, but I belive the 4/6 for the above is, I have him in at 4/9. Only a fall will stop him today, Last seen in may sauntering home, Interesting he is still here in a novice hurdle, ground not a worry, A stepping stone to better, not a great price, but just dont see anything to beat him, apart from the hurdles. 5 star bet for me.
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Re: Zenit St Petersburg v Liverpool > Thurs 14th February The king of propoganda said that was a perfect performance apart from the 2 goals....:rollin
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Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day
Just watched it m8...Clearly a dodge pot, did not fancy it, went about 50 yards n jacked it in. :eek Unlucky..Your reasoning was sound IMO, I would be wary of this one in future.6.30 Kempton Vitznau 1pt win @ 28/1 Bet365 This horse was claimed out of the John Butler yard by K F Clutterbuck after his last run. He used to be a very talented animal and did manage to win off a career high mark of 97. His best wins have come on the all weather but he is a horse that doesn't win very often. He won very cosily over 7f at this track 3 runs ago off 51 but seemed unsuited by the trip next time up when he came there travelling nicely but just didn't go through with his effort. Maybe the week wasn't long enough to get over his exertions. He comes into this race having his first start for his new trainer and he is well drawn in 2. He is a 9 year old now but I don't think a mark of 61 is beyond him. This isn't the strongest of races so if he is on a going day then he definitely has the talent to get involved. The jockey is a worry as I don't really rate Jamie Mackay but he is a big price and might just outrun his odds. -
Re: BBOTD - 14th February 2013. Valentines Day
We never had a moments worry here, easing down to a 2 1/4 l win,clipping a 1.36 and change, just slightly over standard. Matching (give or take ) the group 3 after this race, for more experienced horses. He has a group 1 in him, not sure its going to be the UAE DERBY...mmm will he stay the extra 2? They may dodge this, but for sure there are exciting races ahead in the summer in europe for him, must be rated low 120;s now and improving all the time....The mile division without a frankel on the scene could be all before him. He has big boots to fill, but he is a class horse, that we aint heard the last of. "the best i have ridden" PH.3.55 MEYDAN..UAE 2000 GUINEAS. Soft Falling Rain. 11/10 Paddy Power. One of the best potential horses to grace the UAE steps up tomorrow. Hitting the track standard last time, in a very easy manor. He does stand out as a 5 star bet for me. We are getting evens or a little bigger due to the inconclusive issue about the extra furlong. I guess PH has never say on a better one in his carear. On his dams side there are plenty of mile and mile plus wininng form, and even on the sires side we tend to think sprinter, but again, there is plenty of mile winning form. He will go from the front or near to it again, but he will produce a mid race time between 4 out and 1 out that the others just wont be able to live with. I know the 2nd fav has decent form from the states, but he still has not done it at this level, he has only placed or just out the places. A good thing as i have seen for a long time, at a superb price. -
Re: Dubai Carnival
We never had a moments worry here, easing down to a 2 1/4 l win,clipping a 1.36 and change, just slightly over standard. Matching (give or take ) the group 3 after this race, for more experienced horses. He has a group 1 in him, not sure its going to be the UAE DERBY...mmm will he stay the extra 2? They may dodge this, but for sure there are exciting races ahead in the summer in europe for him, must be rated low 120;s now and improving all the time....The mile division without a frankel on the scene could be all before him. He has big boots to fill, but he is a class horse, that we aint heard the last of. "the best i have ridden" PH.3.55 MEYDAN..UAE 2000 GUINEAS. Soft Falling Rain. 11/10Paddy Power.One of the best potential horses to grace the UAE steps up tomorrow. Hitting the track standard last time, in a very easy manor. He does stand out as a 5 star bet for me. We are getting evens or a little bigger due to the inconclusive issue about the extra furlong. I guess PH has never say on a better one in his carear. On his dams side there are plenty of mile and mile plus wininng form, and even on the sires side we tend to think sprinter, but again, there is plenty of mile winning form. He will go from the front or near to it again, but he will produce a mid race time between 4 out and 1 out that the others just wont be able to live with. I know the 2nd fav has decent form from the states, but he still has not done it at this level, he has only placed or just out the places. A good thing as i have seen for a long time, at a superb price.My biggest bet of the year so far riding here, I am very confident. -
Re: Dubai Carnival
Good luck with these m8, Im knocking together 10 x e/w trebles 5 x e/w fours and 1 x e/w acc with my one "soft falling rain", 32 bets in total, Lets hope they are paying big today....Thanks again for the selections.;)15.20 Meydan: Burano' date= 4/1 Paddy Power, win Burano finished second lto over c&d, ¾L behind the re-opposing Masteroftherolls. He is one pound better off at the weights today and they are very closely matched but at the prices Burano is better value in my opinion. That was his first run since November and it should put him in perfect condition today. His only win came at this track in a listed race. Kieran Fallon is in the saddle. 16.30 Meydan: Daddy Long Legs, 7/1 Paddy Power, win Daddy Long Legs is having his first start for the in-form Mike De Kock. He has been out of sorts in his last few runs, although they were all in group 1's and he drops to group 3 today, and I'm hoping the change of stable will shake him up and get him back in form. His only run at this track was on World Cup night when he won the group 2 UAE Derby after an absence similar to what he has to overcome today. He has only run twice over today's distance, including a group 2 win and a 2L defeat by Power in a group 1. The top class Christophe Soumillon is in the saddle. 17.05 Meydan: Tamaathul, 6/1 Paddy Power, win Tamaathul won nicely lto over today's distance. He was held up near the back and made good progress to get to the front over a furlong out. He ran on well and won comfortably by 1¼L. He has never won on the tepeta but he has run well on it in the past, including a ¼L defeat in a group 3 this time last year and a ½L defeat in his first run this year by subsequent group 2 winner Barbeque Eddie. He has been in good form this season with two wins and two seconds from his four runs. This is his toughest race this season but he is in good heart and I think he has nothing to fear in this field. 17.40 Meydan: Anatolian, 3/1 Paddy Power, win Anatolian won over c&d lto. That was his first run in nearly seven months so he should come on for that run. Second to fifth that day were first to fourth in their next race. Mahmood Al Zarooni is in decent form. Mickael Barzalona keeps the ride having been on board lto. -
Re: Dubai Carnival
3.55 MEYDAN..UAE 2000 GUINEAS. Soft Falling Rain. 11/10Paddy Power.One of the best potential horses to grace the UAE steps up tomorrow. Hitting the track standard last time, in a very easy manor. He does stand out as a 5 star bet for me. We are getting evens or a little bigger due to the inconclusive issue about the extra furlong. I guess PH has never say on a better one in his carear. On his dams side there are plenty of mile and mile plus wininng form, and even on the sires side we tend to think sprinter, but again, there is plenty of mile winning form. He will go from the front or near to it again, but he will produce a mid race time between 4 out and 1 out that the others just wont be able to live with. I know the 2nd fav has decent form from the states, but he still has not done it at this level, he has only placed or just out the places. A good thing as i have seen for a long time, at a superb price.My biggest bet of the year so far riding here, I am very confident. -
Re: FA Cup > 12th - 18th February
I would not trust Everton at 1.33 - no way. Not with their leaky defense and suspecting that the pitch at Oldam can be once again as terrible as it was against Pool. Everton certainly should perform better than Liverpool' date=' as they are very physical and won't let the home team bully them the way they did with Liverpool. However, 1.33 is too low.[/quote'] Everton HT/FT, 3-1 4-1 EFC, Lightning wont strike twice...Moyes wont rest anyone, he needs the supporters back on side, plus its a very very long time since EFC lost two on the bounce, they always seem to come back with a win after a defeat. Added to this local bragging rights over LFC, this wont be lost on the club. -
Re: Liverpool v Swansea City > Sun 17th February
And they wiped the floor with LFC at anfield only 2 months ago...Astounding is it not?Can't believe Swansea are 7 here... are they missing players? Swansea play how BR is trying to get Pool to play so maybe they can learn a few things for example Michu showing the strikers how to convert a chance. -
3.55 MEYDAN..UAE 2000 GUINEAS. Soft Falling Rain. 11/10 Paddy Power. One of the best potential horses to grace the UAE steps up tomorrow. Hitting the track standard last time, in a very easy manor. He does stand out as a 5 star bet for me. We are getting evens or a little bigger due to the inconclusive issue about the extra furlong. I guess PH has never say on a better one in his carear. On his dams side there are plenty of mile and mile plus wininng form, and even on the sires side we tend to think sprinter, but again, there is plenty of mile winning form. He will go from the front or near to it again, but he will produce a mid race time between 4 out and 1 out that the others just wont be able to live with. I know the 2nd fav has decent form from the states, but he still has not done it at this level, he has only placed or just out the places. A good thing as i have seen for a long time, at a superb price.
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Re: Last 16 > Real Madrid v Manchester United > Wed 13th February
GL whatever you do, Myself im not having a bet on it, Im just looking forward to what hopefully is a great game of football...Lets hope they dont disappoint.;)I could say anything offering above evens is "optimistic" as its unlikely to occur. Taking independent odds of it staying 0 - 0 after 75 minutes will be around ~12/1, Utd to score in exactly the 75th minute will probably be around 60/1 (using odds of 1.500 of Utd to score with Pinnacle), then squeezing a precise 3 - 2 scoreline in the 15 minutes that remains will probably be closer to 600/1. Combined thats close to 500,000/1 Though the odds may still not be completely independent broken into elements, I won't bite off an bookie's arm even if they were offering 250,000/1... ...But because I've got a nice feel for it, I'll probably throw something on it. -
Re: Last 16 > Real Madrid v Manchester United > Wed 13th February
0-0 after 75 mins,,,that is optimism of the highest order. If I wanted a guranteed income tonight of around 5%, I would be laying the 0-0 scoreline, I doubt it very much that my balance will not be updated by 8:30pm.0 - 0 after 75 minutes, Utd to score in the 75th minute and FS 3 - 2 to Madrid You heard it here first -
Re: Zenit St Petersburg v Liverpool > Thurs 14th February
Does that strong team include the two they had up front against OLDHAM..Namely Suarez and Sturridge...Are Zenit stronger than Oldham?A bit of info..
Dubai Carnival
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Dubai Carnival 5pm My Freedom win 13/2 1 mile on the tapeta, playing all the cards late, i expect him to get there tonight. His last run was all about the step into this tonight.