Darran

I've covered every horse running at Cheltenham and the leading contenders in the big race at Punchestown. The going is now soft at Cheltenham after they watered and then it rained. All prices are from around 9am this morning 4.35 Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4) Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1) 5.10 Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4) 5.45 What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1) Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2) Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1) 6.20 Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2) Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2) Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1) 6.55 No bet 7.30 Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1) Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2) D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1) 8.05 Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4) Punchestown Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4) Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1 4.35 Caryto Des Brosses - Probably not quite as good as he once was which is no surprise given he is now 12. Was a solid 2nd in this race last year to Fier Jaguen and on these terms he could reverse that form. Ran against him on his seasonal debut at Garthorpe when he was 11L behind him this time, but he always needs his first run of the season. Was 2nd again over 2m4f at Kimble to Lift Me Up who had also beaten him at Newbury last season. That was another solid performance and he was back to winning ways at Garthorpe 2 weeks ago. Nearly always runs his race and should go close. Fier Jaguen - You may remember that I was a huge fan of this horse last season and put him up as a strong bet at Aintree, but his right handed jumping got in the way and he unseated Bradley. He then went to this race and I put him up as a max bet and whilst things are never going to be easy because of his right handed jumping he was always holding Caryto Des Brosses to have a fairly comfortable success. He won his first two races this season, but I was not impressed with him at all at Didmarton and I didn't think he was in as good form as he was last year. I was going to oppose him if he went to Aintree, but he was taken out at the 6 day stage and instead he went to High Easter where he was sent off 2/5 to beat Law Of Gold. He made the running as usual and jumped out to his right as usual, but looked the winner for most of the way and it was only in the closing stages that Law Of Gold got the better of him. There is no real disgrace by that though because he is a top class pointer/hunter chaser himself and it was probably his best run of the season. Still not sure he's quite in the same form as last year and obviously he is going to jump out to his right, but he still could win. A Jet Of Our Own - Ridden by the owners son who has only had two rides under rules before both over hurdles. It took the horse a while to get his head in front, but once he won at Maisemore last March and then went onto land a hat-trick. He won those 3 races by 25L, 40L and 50L. He's had a solid season this time around winning 2 of his 6 races including at Chaddesley Corbett a couple of weeks ago. That was a decent effort and saw his point rating go up 6lbs. He has been a beaten favourite twice this season though. He has led, as he did last time, but he has also been held up so hard to know what to expect on that front. The jockey's inexperience is going to be an issue and his form isn't yet at the level of Fier Jaguen or Caryto Des Brosses, but he might be capable of a top 3 finish. Bigforyourboots - Must admit I can't quite understand why he's running in this. He ran in a bumper at Doncaster in January and was always well behind. He then ran in 2 points finishing 6th and then he pulled up on Easter Monday. He is trained by former jockey Luca Morgan and he's been ridden by good jockeys in both point starts and did go off 3/1 fav in the first of them. He hasn't looked to stay 2m4f in the two point runs so 2m out to suit, but I don't see how he can get anywhere near the best horses in this. Fine Investment - Was 2nd to Exeter bumper winner Prophesea at Flete Park a couple of weeks ago who was following up the Exeter win at Flete Park. Fine Investment was in front until the final 50 yards so it was a decent effort. The 3rd at Leicester behind Iskandar Pecos the time before hinted at a little promise as well, but 2m on better ground didn't look to be what he needs. Funky Sensation - I thought he ran a really good race in the final race on this card a year ago when he led and ended up being only beaten 12.5L by Paloma Blue. That was a strong race and he clearly has ability. His 2 hunter chase runs this season weren't bad either although he was a strange gamble at Exeter last time given he's never looked like he stays 3m and again he failed to stay when finishing 4th. 2m round here should be ideal for him although if they want to front run on him he is going to be doing well to be in front of Fier Jaguen, but given the run he put in on this card last year I wouldn't be surprised if he outran his odds. Rewritetherules - Has sometimes run well in hunter chases, but the jockey switch didn't help him at all at Kempton last time and he pulled up in this race last year so hard to see him getting involved. Whatchagotder - Luca Morgan also trains this one and again its hard to give him much of a chance as he is still a maiden after 7 starts here and in Ireland. Missed Tee - Was well backed ahead of her hunter chase debut, but was very keen and didn't see it out in testing ground over 2m5f at Stratford. 10 days later she went to Ludlow and she was really keen again although it probably didn't help her that she was taken on for the lead as it probably made her go even quicker. There was the odd mistake, but nothing as bad as at Stratford or her last start for the Skelton's at Ludlow and I certainly saw more promise here than I did at Stratford. I actually thought she might have dropped out when the 2nd tried to go on leaving the back, but she didn't and it was only after the last where she really weakened. 2m round here on good ground could be exactly what she needs, but the presence of Fier Jaguen might not help her. Verdict - This race was very easy for me last year as I couldn't see Fier Jaguen getting beat, but I just don't think he's in quite the same form as last season. The yard have been much quieter this season compared to last season which might have something to do with it. Yes he has been winning, but he hasn't been as impressive and whereas he got away with some massively right-handed jumping last year I'm not sure he will this time around. Maybe after the race I will regret not sticking with him at odds against, but we shall see. It will be interesting what happens up front as well and the race could set up nicely for Caryto Des Brosses to close from behind and pick up the pieces of the strong pace. Missed Tee looks like dropping back to this trip is what she needs and she gets 15lbs from Fier Jaguen and she is worth backing e/w with 3 places on offer. I'd love to include Funky Sensation somehow because this trip is what he needs as well, but even so he's still going to find it hard to win. Caryto Des Brosses 1pt @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 7/4) Missed Tee 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 6/1) 5.10 Another Furlough - He has looked very progressive this season as he has won 3 out of his 4 starts. The one time he got beat he was a 4L 3rd to Yippee Ki Yay which does give us a hunter chase reference to work on. The form comment said that he was given too much to do and having watched the race I would agree with that. He is always held up in his races, but his jockey overdid the tactics that day and as it turns out he was trying to catch a decent horse. The other issue is that is a right handed track and he jumps to his left so he was forfeiting a fair bit of ground at each fence. He has jumped left handed at left handed tracks as well although of course it is more helpful at those venues. He clocked a decent time when he won in February and then he beat Duc De Bourbon the following month and was value for more than the 4L margin as he was eased down. He looks promising. Coolagh Park - Was only a length 2nd to Iskandar Pecos at Horseheath on New Years Eve which would give him a chance, but fair to say that one has improved massively since and he's been beaten twice and then won at 4/11 in between. So overall he has a bit too find. Iskandar Pecos - Has improved massively over the season as often happens with horses from this yard and went very close to winning the Walrus at Haydock in February. 10 days later he had a very easy task at Leicester and then should have had a fairly easy task at Ludlow. However it didn't turn out like that as it needed the ride of the season from Huw to get him home and beat Before Midnight on the run-in. He raced very lazily and didn't jump that well either. Before Midnight set quite a decent pace and I think he was just struggling to keep up over that trip. 3m2f round Cheltenham is obviously a new test, but he sets a clear standard on form. Latenightrumble - 2019 the winner was Latenightpass, 2022 the winner was Latenightfumble so will we see the hat-trick of relations win this race? Well he certainly has a chance. He was set to win on his seasonal return when he unseated at the last. He then won easily the following month although he beat Red Opium who was only 4th at Kelso last month so it isn't strong form. He then ran way below par when 4th at 4/5 before winning on Easter Monday at 1/4. Fair to say he hasn't achieved as strong form as a few of these, but it would be daft to write him off. Minella Job - Been stuffed twice by Another Furlough so that along with his 3rd at Exeter a couple of weeks ago suggest he will struggle here. Olly Norse - 2nd to Deise Aba on his return on New Years Eve wasn't a bad effort and then he was 2nd again 11L behind Paper Mill at Garthorpe. That suggests he is going to struggle here. Padjoes Legacy - I wouldn't read anything into the fact that Gina rides him and not their horse as Jack always rides Latenightrumble. Was struggling earlier in the season, but things clicked at Kimble on Easter Saturday when winning in a decent time. He won again a couple of weeks later although it was only a match. I'd be a bit surprised if he was good enough. Paper Mill - Easily beat Olly Norse at Garthorpe on his last start in February and he still looked green after he went clear suggesting there is more to come. His jumping wasn't always foot perfect which would be a small concern here. That was his 2nd win of the season after he won his only other start in January. I certainly wouldn't under estimate his chances, but I just wonder if he's going to be streetwise enough to win this. Wolf Walker - Didn't really show a great deal in 3 Irish starts last year, but he has looked a really promising horse since coming over to Britain to be trained by Chris Barber. Given the 1st win on New Yeas Eve came just over a month after the last Irish start it really has been a swift transformation. He still looked a bit green when winning his maiden by 20L, but he looked very streetwise in his other two wins. He beat Douglas Longbottom by 4L in the first of them and whilst I know that horse disappointed at Chepstow on Friday he is much better than he showed that night. He also beat another horse who ran in the Dunraven Bowl last week in the shape of Red Nika and he hammered him by 18L For a 5yo he is a superb jumper and if he brings the jumping ability he has shown in points to Cheltenham then that is going to be a very useful tool. All 3 runs have been at Larkhill so this is a bit of a different test and he has 2 furlongs further to go, but he looks very promising. Verdict - A smaller field than usual, but still an interesting race. My initial thinking was that Iskandar Pecos would be a short price favourite and there might be some value in taking him on especially with Wolf Walker who has really impressed. The early market moves though has meant that Wolf Walker is shorter than he ought to be and Iskandar Pecos bigger than he ought to be so he has to be the bet. Confidence is high and this has been the long term target for him. The 5/4 mark he was put in was the right sort of price for me so he has to be the bet at the current prices. Wolf Walker could be very good, but he has to prove it under rules and whilst at the initial 4/1 that was factored into the price I can't say it is anymore so happy to leave him alone now. I respect Latenightrumble and Paper Mill can outrun his odds, but Another Furlough was the other one that interested me and he is a danger as well. Iskandar Pecos 3pts @ 9/4 with most bookies (take up to 5/4) 5.45 Cooler Than Me - Won a match last April and did finish 2nd in the Exeter point to point bumper prior to that. This looks a big ask though. Earl Of Desmond - On his 2nd to Its On The Line at Cork in April 22 he would have a massive chance, but on his pulled up effort on stable debut at Exeter behind Yippee Ki Yay he would have no chance. What is interesting was he was being very well backed at big prices prior to being a non runner at Stratford a couple of weeks ago. Henry Oliver has previous in landing a gamble in this sphere so he's one to be wary of. Fil d'Ariane - Ran a couple of cracking races in the Military races at Sandown where he didn't really seem to quite stay. I thought the drop down in trip would suit at Stratford, but whilst he was able to get a fairly easy lead, he couldn't get well clear of the field and he dropped out quite easily in the end. He clearly has ability, but this is even further than the Sandown races and whilst the ground wont be quite as testing I find it hard to see him staying. Haven't Time - Was running a very promising race on hunter chase debut at Ludlow in January 22 until falling at the last. He wasn't seen again for a year and he ran in 3 hurdle races with little promise. He then returned to hunter chases and ran a perfectly respectable race when 5th at Taunton and he followed that up by beating Polish at Southwell a couple of weeks later. He then went to Exeter and he looked to be in with a good chance of at least finishing 2nd until he faded quite badly on the run-in and he ended up 3rd with Yippee Ki Yay getting up for 2nd. I guess the issue is if he is going to stay this trip given how badly he tired at Exeter, but at least the ground will be much better than it was that day. Jetaway Joey - Another horse who the Eillis' have got from Olly Murphy's yard and after being beaten on his first start for them last year he then went onto win his other 2. The form is solid enough as well because he beat Kaproyale in the first of them at Charing. This year he has only had one start and it was a match where he beat another good horse in Clara Sorrento, although the stables horses always come on for their first run so the form might be a little suspect. Stable won this race last year though and he has to be respected. Jeux d'Eau - Has progressed massively as the season has progressed. He started off the year with a couple of 3rds, but then he landed 3 on the bounce. The middle win at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday was in a decent time, but what was especially eye-catching was his win last time which came in the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett which is over 3m2f. It was a good performance as he travelled well throughout the race and kept going when asked for his effort down the home straight. It was a huge personal best and my thinking is it all depends on if he can repeat that performance 2 weeks later on his first start under rules. Looksnowtlikebrian was a 2L 2nd and he was 3rd in the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow last Friday, but this is a better race than that. Polish - Ran no sort of race on his hunter chase debut at Wincanton, but a month later he ran a much better race when finishing a close 2nd to Haven't Time at Southwell. He helped make the running that day which was a change of tactics and that clearly suited him better than being held up at Wincanton. He's a solid horse, but he does find winning hard and whilst he has a chance I am happy enough to look elsewhere. Terrierman - Pulled up at Stratford in March and has been well beaten in all 3 points this season. What A Glance - Finished 2nd on all 3 starts this season, but the last two have been behind Deise Aba at Lockinge and then at Stratford and I think both of those efforts were very good. At Stratford he looked like he would appreciate stepping back up in trip as he got outpaced that day and he looks to be one of the leading contenders. Yippee Ki Yay - Was a winner back in January in a point which was a good effort and then ran terribly on his next start finishing last of 4 at odds on. To go from that to 9 days later hammering his rivals at Exeter was some feat especially as the 2nd had shown very good form this season. It could be argued he was the only one to run his race, but in some ways he put in an even better effort 6 days later at the same venue. He didn't win, but he made a really bad mistake at the 9th and stumbled badly on landing. It helped that there was a long gap between that and the next fence helped, but he crept back into the race. Whilst he had no chance catching the winner I thought he did very well to even finish 2nd in the circumstances. Another with claims of winning this. Verdict - This is usually a pretty poor race, but this year's renewal looks pretty strong with only a couple that you could completely rule out. The early moves were for Jetaway Joey and Jeux d'Eau, but they look short enough to me now. I think What A Glance is a huge price at double figure odds. Given I think Deise Aba has a big chance in the following race I think he has a really good chance of hitting the frame at least with this longer trip set to suit. I'm also going to cover Yippee Ki Yay as those two Exeter efforts look very good and Haven't Time who hopefully can see it out better on this better ground. What A Glance 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with most bookies (Paddy Power and Betfair are 16/1 and take up to 8/1) Yippee Ki Yay 0.5pts @ 3/1 with most bookies (10/3 with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/2) Haven't Time 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (365 are 8/1 and take up to 5/1) 6.20 Captain Tommy - Bizarrely struggled in 2 points this season and yet has won 2 hunter chases at Ludlow. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the first when only having to beat Shang Tang, but I thought he achieved more when beating Espior De Guye over 2m4f. His run at Aintree was decent enough as well finishing 9th 38L behind the winner. Connections have been waiting for better ground so will be hoping the rain stays away. Not sure he's going to be quite up to winning this, but should run well. Deise Aba - Has beaten What A Glance in his last two runs at Lockinge and Stratford so if he wins in the previous race that will be a big form boost. I thought he jumped really well at Stratford and he had more in hand than the winning margin suggests. The fact he won round there over just under 3m shows he still has a touch of class because that shouldn't be his ideal circumstances as he was a strong stayer under rules and his last good run was over the cross country course last January when just being beaten. I'd have been tempted to have run him in the 4m contest, but this test should really suit as well and crucially he wont care what the weather does. Premier Magic - Bolted up in this race last year having of course won at The Festival the time before. That race was pretty weak last year though and Rebel Dawn Rising is a non stayer at this trip so I don't think he achieved a great deal. This season I had concerns about how good he still was as his two pointing wins told us nothing and he duly ended up pulling up at The Festival. He ran OK until he weakened after 3 out, but I think it adds to my theory that he isn't as good as he was last season. Clearly though that win last March is the best form in the race so a win wouldn't be a shock, but I'm happy to take him on. Quintin's Man - Won the Intermediate Final on this card last year with ease and that plus his win at Wincanton and 3rd in the Walrus made me think he had an outside squeak at The Festival. That didn't go well though as he ran no sort of race. I was surprised that Darren said the testing ground was to blame as he looked like a horse who needed testing ground to be at his best. I could forgive him that, but a couple of weeks ago he disappointed again at Flete Park when finishing 4th over 4m. The biggest concern though is he flashed his tail when he started to be ridden after 3 out. He did bounce back from a couple of lesser runs at the start of the season to win at Wincanton and that was only 10 days after the latter of those efforts. If he does bounce back then he has a chance. Encounter A Giant - Was a well beaten 5th in this last year and can't see him doing any better in a stronger renewal. Fairly Famous - Won the previous race on this card last year which is usually the weakest race on the card, but he clocked a good time in doing so and connections were talking him up as a Festival contender. The 2nd at Horseheath on his return was a decent enough effort as he ran like he needed it, the big problem though was the Wetherby effort where he looked to hate the testing conditions and barely travelled at all. To be fair given Sine Nomine won even if had been better ground I doubt he would have beaten her. A month later he went back pointing and had a very easy task, but he won with ease. That was on soft ground and he clearly handles soft ground so if it does rain it shouldn't matter as it isn't going to be anything like Wetherby. This should be the race we find out how good he is. Life Me Up - No doubt at least one of his owners will be watching from Miami where this weekend's F1 GP is taking place, but Mrs Horner might be at Cheltenham to watch her horse. He looked very promising last season when he won on hunter chase debut at Newbury, but he then ran poorly in the Intermediate Final when pulling up. This season he was a fair 2nd on his return, but the Kimble effort where he beat Caryto Des Brosses was much more impressive albeit over 2m4f. This is the best race he's been in, but surely that ran here a year ago was too bad to be true and he is a player. Definite Dilemma - Has no chance. Ripper Roo - Another who should be outclassed. Verdict - Really good race this and much more strength than last year. Premier Magic can win, but he is priced up purely on last seasons form and if you were basing it just on this seasons form then I'm not even sure you would make him favourite let alone the short price he is. Lift Me Up was put in at double figure odds which was too big, but even though last year's run was probably too bad to be true it still has to be factored in and he's the right price now. I'm going to have a tiny bet on Quitin's Man as I want him covered just in case he returns to form, but the two for me are Deise Aba and Fairly Famous. Deise Aba will hopefully get a form boost in the race prior and he looks to retain plenty of his old ability based on what he's been doing this season. Fairly Famous was so good last year that I want him onside as well as connections have been waiting for better ground with him and they finally get it. Deise Aba 2pts @ 11/2 with most bookies (6/1 with Hills and take up to 7/2) Fairly Famous 1.5pts @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/2) Quintin's Man 0.5pts @ 13/2 with most bookies (7s with 365 and Hills and take up to 5/1) 6.55 Regatta De Blanc - A perfect record in points having won 4/4 which includes a dead heat with Grace A Vous Enki in the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill in February. That was the run after he won the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton in a race which worked out very well with D'Jango and Bennys King 2nd and 3rd. I thought she would be good enough to win at Newbury, but Secret Investor was back to form and finishing 2nd to him is no disgrace. Her jumping let her down a bit and the form in behind has not worked out, but it could just be case of two good horses beaten some average ones. There is certainly no Secret Investor in this and she should be very hard to beat. Chenery - Only has a rating of 103 under rules and hasn't looked in good points this season as she did last season where she won 3 on the bounce. Daisy Yeats - Only one win in 15 starts in points and that was partly because she was the only finisher. Dul Ar Aghaidh - Wasn't a strong hunter chase she was 2nd in at Cork on her last start before going to join Bradley, but that form is still better than most of these so is a contender for 2nd. Glancing Glory - N/R Grenadine Save - Has struggled in hunter chases and points this season and likely to be the same here. Harbour Queen - N/R Wheres My Wonder - Another Luca Morgan runner who is still a maiden and has no chance. Verdict - If Regatta De Blanc doesn't win this then it will be the biggest shock of the hunter chase season. She should win this with ease because the rest are a very moderate bunch. 2 of the possible rivals are out now as well so Dul Ar Aghaidh really does look the only possible horse who looks capable of even coming 2nd. 7.30 D'Jango - Had a hell of a season since joining current connections having finished a superb 2nd in the opening hunter chase of the season to Regatta De Blanc and then beating Tea Clipper at Warwick. I think he got bogged down in the mud at Warwick when 4th in the Walrus. The 4th at The Festival was of course much better and was a fantastic effort. The problem is his start a month later at Cotley where he was only 6th of 7 behind Master Templar and Shantou Flyer who reversed Cheltenham and Taunton form. He wouldn't be the first horse to disappoint after running a big race at the Festival and given he stays really well this race has looked the ideal race for him all season so it might be worth forgiving him that poor effort. Gaboriot - Interesting that they chose this race over the other options he had today including Punchestown where I think he would have had a chance. He was running very well when he unseated at Canal Turn in the Aintree Foxhunters where he was one of my bets of course. I thought he looked really good when winning at Catterick back in March and whilst he is unproven over 4m if his bang in form trainers think he will stay then that is good enough to me. He is a leading contender. Law Of Gold - Been one of the best hunter chases in Britain in recent years including winning this race really impressive last year. The year before he jumped terribly and it was amazing that he even got as close to beating Coup De Pinceau as he did. Last year was very different and he travelled superbly well, jumped well and came home to a very easy 16L success. He then went to Stratford and ran terribly in the big race. This season he had his usual slow start when finishing 2nd at Horseheath in January and he then won his next two including beating Fier Jaguen as mentioned earlier where he didn't look like winning until staying past him on the run-in. Nearly always runs his race and every chance he will hold onto his crown. Young Buck - Ex Paul Nicholls and won a hunter chase at Newton Abbot over 3m2f a year ago. Didn't always jump well but won as easily as his form suggested he would. He's struggled a little bit for new connections in points this season. He was well beaten on his return and was then a 12L 3rd to Another Furlough. He won his next start, but was then only 5th in the same race D'Jango was 6th in and Master Templer won. He looks like he's regressed to me. Ange Des Malberaux - Not been seen for over a year and was out of form then so impossible to fancy. Cheltenham De Vaige - Seems to always run well at this meeting and nothing wrong with his 3rd in this race last year. That does mean he has 22L to make up on Law Of Gold though and on his first start since October I can't see him doing that. Coup De Pinceau - Caused a huge shock when winning this at 100/1 in 2022, but he didn't win again until winning a point in March which was his 3rd of 4 starts this season. The win was over 3m4f so again proving his stamina, but last time back over 3m he looked like he was going to win until just before the last and he found nothing for pressure. As a former winner and proven stayer you have to respect him, but if Law Of Gold had jumped as well as he did last year he wouldn't have won so I'm happy enough to oppose. Finding Freedom - Luca must be running the whole stable and like the others looks to have no chance. Master Templar - Has been very prolific in points after moving to this yard a couple of years ago having won 10 of his 15 starts. He's a proven stayer having won over 3m6f last season and 3m4f in January in a good performance on his seasonal return. He was beaten in a match on his next start but by a decent horse and only by a short head right on the line. As highlighted above he had Young Buck and D'Jango behind him when winning last time and to stay on and beat Shantou Flyer highlights what a top effort that was. This race has been the target and he looks to having a leading chance. Mitchouka - Did win on New Years Eve at Horseheath, but has struggled a bit otherwise. That said his best effort was when just failing to win over 3m6f in March so at least the trip wont be an issue. Myth Buster - Was 3rd behind Premier Magic on this card last year when getting outpaced so going for this race seems a better option especially as he won over 4m last year by 30L. The problem for me though is he seems to have lost his way a little bit this season and didn't jump well on his only hunter chase run at Wincanton in February. Perfect Pirate - Another one from the Luca Morgan yard who returned pointing after 1180 days off the track. Unlike his stablemates he has actually shown reasonable form this season and won last time at Paxford. He's still hard to fancy though in a race like this. Pym - No doubt a name many will remember when he was running under rules mainly for Nicky Henderson a few years ago. He gave his jockey a first win when winning on his debut for current connections and actually clocked a faster time than Law Of Gold on the same card. That is probably a bit misleading though as they went a slow pace in that race and Law Of Gold's final circuit time was quicker. He followed up last month when again putting in a nice performance and he had Mitchouka in behind in 4th. Stamina for the trip is an unknown, but if he stays he could well be capable of running a decent race. Dreaming Diamond - Pulled up at Stratford a couple of weeks ago and also impossible to fancy. Verdict - This market was very different last night as Master Templar had been the one for money and had almost been backed into favourite, but he has been a big drifter this morning and is available at just as big a price as he opened up at. I am going to make him a bet now as he has won on softer conditions before. When Law Of Gold had drifted he was going to be the bet, but I think the rain is against him. He did win on soft 2 back, but he usually needs decent spring ground and whilst he could still win I don't think he is value anymore so I can't put him up as a bet. If Gaboriot stays then I think he will go very close to winning and I will cover D'Jango small as well because this has been the race I have had in mind for him all season. Hopefully he can bounce back from his run last time and if he does he will be a big player. Master Templar 1pt @ 6/1 with most bookies (13/2 with William Hill and take up to 4/1) Gaboriot 1.5pts @ 100/30 with William Hill (7/2 with BetVictor and Betfred and take up to 5/2) D'Jango 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365 to 4 places (take up to 6/1) 8.05 Slievegar - Ran well in the Intermediate Final last year when finishing 2nd and just didn't seem to stay. He then went to Kelso and won a weak hunter chase in easy style. This year has not been so good as he has been put in his place in all 3 points he has run in. A return to this track over a shorter trip might help him find the form he showed last year, but going to struggle if it doesn't. Espoir De Guye - Thought there was some promise on his hunter chase debut when he didn't stay behind D'Jango at Warwick and he backed that up by beating Famous Clermont at Wincanton. I thought he won on merit that day, but fair to say he disappointed when 1/2F to win at Ludlow a month later. Captain Tommy beat him that day and all 3 of those pieces of form could be boosted prior to this race. He wasn't great at Aintree though and I just wonder if this stiffer track might catch him out even at this trip. Go On Chez - Non-Runner Rebel Dawn Rising - Better than just 2 hunter chase wins suggest and to be fair he would have won a 3rd at Fakenham last Easter if he hadn't thrown Dale Peters over the last. He had issues at the last at Fakenham again on Gold Cup day, but at least he got over it this time and quickened up to win. I thought he ran a really good race on this card last year until his stamina gave out and if he can repeat that effort I think he's capable of going close. Key could be how he has come out of the run at Aintree where he was up there for a fair way before finishing last of the 10 to get round. He won't mind if they get a bit of rain. Cat Tiger - Looks to have gone backwards based on his 3 runs this year. He ran out on his owner at Hereford and then was a well beaten 3rd to Bennys King at Leicester. At Aintree he unseated at the 7th which is obviously too early to know how he would have got on. If he did find his best form then he's got every chance of going close, but the evidence to me suggests he won't be good enough. Cooldine Bog - He certainly won't be good enough. Dalahast - Has got a plenty to find with Espoir De Guye on his Ludlow 4th and he's never looked like winning a hunter chase yet. Game Of War - Pulled up behind Espoir De Guye at Wincanton and even the jockey change to Darren Andrews shouldn't bring about enough improvement for him to get competitive in this. Imperial Esprit - 15L 4th to Yccs Portocervo at Kempton last week and would have to improve on that to do any better here. Mix Of Clover - Failed to complete in his first 3 points where he unseated twice and ran out the 3rd time. Did manage to finish at Kimble last time, but he was 36L behind Lift Me Up and that along with hos old rules form suggest he will struggle here. Royal Act - Rated just 69 and was well beaten in a point a couple of weeks ago. Solomon Grey - Won a hot renewal of this race in 2022 and was also a very good 3rd in it last year. That win in 2022 was the last time he got his head in front, but he's run some very creditable races since then. He's just had the 2 runs this season and although he was 4/7 at Larkhill on his return he always needs his first run of the season so the 3rd there wasn't a terrible effort. He was well backed ahead of the Stratford run la couple of weeks ago and was 3rd again not beaten that far by Deise Aba. With the first 2 home running earlier on in the card he could get a form boost ahead of this. I would also imagine he will improve for the run again which is what happened in this race last year when he ran a few days before this contest. Tekap - Showed a bit of ability in points the last couple of seasons and was in the lead for a long way in the Intermediate Final last year before not staying and pulling up. This year he has pulled up in all 3 starts including at Wincanton behind Espoir De Guye on his last start. The Composeur - Time wasn't anything special, but he was a visually impressive winner on his seasonal return at Cocklebarrow in January. Was backed into 2/1 at Garthorpe the following month, but dropped away to finish a well beaten 5th. A BHA mark of 99 sums up how much he has to find with the leading contenders. Verdict - This race often ends up being the most competitive race on the card, but not this year as very few have realistic claims of winning. As soon as I saw the going I knew Go On Chez was going to come out and so he has. I was going to take him on anyway with Rebel Dawn Rising. This is the race on the card for him as he didn't stay over 3m2f last year and as long as he is over the Aintree effort which was good for a long way, then he is the one to beat. I was going to add Solomon Grey, but he needs good ground and I fear the rain has done for him. He should come on for the run at Stratford though and the form might well have been boosted earlier in the evening, but for the moment I will leave him alone after the rain. Rebel Dawn Rising 3pts @ 7/4 with Skybet and BetVictor (15/8 with Hills and take up to 5/4) 5.25 Punchestown I think Its On The Line will win again this year. He's clearly the best hunter chaser in Ireland and obviously he wasn't beaten far by Sine Nomine at Cheltenham. Over this longer trip he should be able to sit closer to the pace than he could at Aintree and whilst he no doubt will race lazily he just keeps finding for Derek's urgings. He's so tough that I'm not too worried about him doing all 3 Festivals and he does remind me a lot of On The Fringe. There has been money for Lifetime Ambition and he had a rating of 158 in last year's Grand National. He's not up to that sort of level now, but clearly can still run to a decent mark and he bolted up over 2m4f at Cork on Easter Monday in what was a fairly weak race. He is a danger, but needs Its On The Line to run below par for me. I can't have Famous Clermont on what he has done this season although James King being able to claim 3lbs in Ireland is a little plus for him although given he is a hard ride maybe the fact Will, who knows him so well, isn't ideal. He missed Aintree because of the ground so does come here fresh, but he needs to get back to last year's form to have any sort of chance. Ferns Lock is interesting because I do think he will stay 3m round here so I don't think the trip is the problem it was at Cheltenham. He went nuts there though. He looked on edge coming down the walkway to the track and then as soon as the hood came off he lost the plot and any chance of him winning disappeared. Running him at Fairyhouse was crazy although to be fair I was shocked he was beaten by Boss Robin. He's had a month off since and if he can keep a lid on things he does have the ability to win this. I don't know too much about his jockey, but he performed a hell of a recovery in the La Touche Cup yesterday and he looks more than capable. Billaway will no doubt run his usual solid race although he only got to the 4th last year when he unseated. He was 5th at Cheltenham though and it was a sign that he isn't quite at the level he was. Vaucelet has been 2nd in this for the last 2 years and maybe some spring ground will see an improvement, but he looks to have gone based on his form earlier in the season. We also know that he isn't as good as Ferns Lock if that one has is mind on the job, let alone being able to reverse form with Its On The Line. I suspect Boss Robin was flattered by his win over Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse and Samcro is the big price he should be. So all in all Its On The Line rates a fairly strong bet, but I will also cover Ferns Lock because the ability is there and the price is big enough. Its On The Line 2.5pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 and BetVictor (take up to 5/4) Ferns Lock 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/1

So I don't clog up this thread I am going to post my Cheltenham/Punchestown preview on a separate one.

Poor Day 2 and so annoying to see Tom Foolery win. He was really well backed and ended up going off favourite so clearly some people expected an improved showing. I'm not sure Duke Of Bedford was loving Warrnambool and he might prefer going elsewhere. Only the final day where the big race of the week, the Grand Annual takes place. Race 1 The Champion Novice Hurdle looks the toughest race of the week to find the winner of. Affluential is the market leader after he got up to beat Dubai Moon at Pakenham and last week he won a maiden on the flat at Cranbourne. Dubai Moon ran well enough on Tuesday to give the form a solid enough look and they did pull clear of the others. As I wrote the other day though Dubai Moon's jockey thought he got distracted by the hurdle after the line so was he possibly a bit fortunate to win so whilst I respect his chance and he could win I am going to take him on. Jekyll'n'hyde won a maiden at Coleraine last August and then ran a solid enough 4th at Ballarat in handicap company behind El Diez. He has had 3 flat runs over the last couple of months and he won a hurdle trial here 3 weeks ago. He has claims. Calvi could run a decent race as he took the maiden on the first jumps card of the season over course and distance. Elementry was 4th that day and did reverse the form at Pakenham last month, but I think the fact he could dictate the pace in a small field played into his hands and Calvi's run wasn't bad. He ran OK on the flat at Moe last week. Lincoln King won his maiden at Ballarat last time, but I'm not sure that is the strongest form in the race, but he does have strong flat form so I still respect his claims. I was really impressed with Huntly Castle at Pakenham as he quickened up well to storm clear. Given Leaderboard who was 2nd that day won on Tuesday that form has a strong look to it and his jockey has impressed in Australia so far and landed the Galleywood yesterday. I put up Custom Of The Sea at Pakenham and on the face of it he ran poorly, but he was lame after the race and the jockey reported that he made an abnormal respiratory noise turning for home. I think he looks a potential big improver from that effort and he had shown good promise in Ireland over hurdles so we know the ability to win a race like this is there. I'm going to take two against the field here and with Huntly Castle's form boosted on Tuesday I am going to back him and I am expecting a much improved run from Custom Of The Sea so he is the other one I will back. Huntly Castle 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 19/5 with Bet365 Race 7 Really looking forward to the Grand Annual which is the longest jumps race in Australia at 5500m and it is worth around £130k to the winner. Stern Idol was entered in this, but in a very clever move by his trainer I think he was only put into the race to keep the weights down for last years Rockstar Ronnie. He would have had to carry more than 67.5kg and it would have led to more horses being in the handicap proper, but instead he is giving less weight than he should do to some of the runners. I find it odd that in Australia they don't see to focus on the handicap and just look at the weight's the horses have to carry which is the opposite to what we do over here. Rockstar Ronnie was a good winner last year and the ex Dan Skelton trained horse certainly won way more money than he would have done in the UK. After that he was beaten by Mighty Oasis in the Thackeray and then ran a stinker in the Crips at Sandown, but he was lame after the race and he jumped terribly so I suspect the lameness was the reason. I thought he ran the perfect trial at Pakenham when 3rd behind Stern Idol and after the race I went over to where connections were stood and they were delighted with the effort which should have put him spot on for this. Bell Ex One was certainly the better horse of the 2 in Ireland/UK and he was 3rd at the Cheltenham Festival on his last start here. His first start in Oz went perfectly as he beat Stern Idol over hurdles and I thought he was going to win lots of races last season. That didn't really happen though and whilst he did well to win the Lafferty Hurdle I didn't think he was really at his best. To be fair his chase debut was a good effort in the Grand National at Ballarat when 2nd to Brungle Bertie, He's had lots of trials this year and a couple of flat runs and he was 2nd last time at Kyneton. I never really had him down as a horse who needs this far and I do think he has to step up on what he did last year. Brungle Bertie ended the season very well as his run in the Crisp was good given he got badly hampered and then as mentioned above he won the Grand National. I thought he was given a bit of a daft ride at Pakenham as he tried to serve it up to Stern Idol which is never to work as he burnt himself out and ended up finishing 5th. He should come on for that run though and given he stayed 4500m well he ought to stay this trip. Vanguard was 4th in this race last year and no doubt will have had this race as his plan again this year. He ran well in his prep at Ballarat when 3rd to Mighty Oasis and Instigator. With another year on his back he could easily improve on his 4th place. Crosshill had good form in Ireland before going to Oz and he was certainly a better horse than Rockstar Ronnie, but things haven't quite worked out for him. He was 3rd in this last year and did win a maiden on the flat, but he was only 6th in the Crisp and then failed to finish in the Grand National. He won 1st up this season although it ended up being a very weak race with the other two chances both departing early on. I thought he was very poor at Ballarat though in the hurdle there when he failed to finish. He did win a steeple trial last time. He was put in at silly odds although that was with Stern Idol still in the race and I'm not surprised he's been backed in, but I think the value has gone now. Instigator ran a huge race on Tuesday when putting it up to Stern Idol late on and it is not unusual for horses to run in both races so has another chance here. The only other one with a chance is Budd Fox who jumped really well to win at Pakenham and beat Tom Foolery who obviously franked the form today. He is the main horse who is running from out of the handicap, but that was his first jumps race since 2022 so he should improve for it. He was also 2nd in the longest flat race in Oz which is here over 4600m so the trip shouldn't be an issue either. I do think Rockstar Ronnie is the one to beat again as he ran a fantastic trial for this at Pakenham and we know this test suits him perfectly. Vanguard won the Brieley 2 years ago and then slipped in this when fav and the 4th last year was obviously solid. There was lots to like about his prep run as well so he will be the other horse I cover in what should be a cracking race, Rockstar Ronnie 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365 Vanguard 1pt @ 7/1 with Bet365

Pretty pleased with the way Day 1 went with 2 winners and Leaderboard did end up returning a massive 15/2. Always nice to get an odds on favourite beaten. If you haven't watched the big race then I highly recommend watching it because it was a hell of a horse race and well worth watching. Tomorrow we have a handicap chase and the feature hurdle race of the week. Again I have just used Bet365 prices so bigger might be available elsewhere. Race 4 I have had Duke Of Bedford down as the winner of the BM120 Steeplechase ever since connections said this race would be the target after he won the 0-114 Chase at Ballarat. I thought he looked an improved horse that day and that is no surprise given he is just 5. He looks like he could have the potential to go from this grade to the open steeplechases later in the season and to me he looks a very strong bet. I fancied Tom Foolery at Pakenham on the back of his 2nd to Duke Of Bedford at Ballarat and he just failed to run down Budd Fox on the run-in, but I thought he was outjumped by Budd Fox and I don't really see how he reverses the form with Duke Of Bedford, especially as the weight difference is 3kg again. Duke Of Bedford has also beaten the 2nd favourite over fences as he beat him in a maiden chase at Hamilton 11 months ago. The margin was 5.5L that day and they were carrying the same weight whereas Gunaluva gets 1.5kg here. Gunaluva won over this course and distance on his following start to back up that form. This prep he has had a flat start and then finished a 0.1L 2nd to Lincoln King at Ballarat. He would be the one I am most worried about, but I think Duke Of Bedford will have his measure again. Duke If Bedford 3pts @ 6/4 with Bet365 Race 6 The feature hurdle race of the meeting is the Galleywood and I think the MJ Bourke at Pakenham is the race to focus on here. All 5 runners from that race line-up here and unusually the winner, El Diez is the biggest price of them. El Diez was also the biggest price at Pakenham, but after the race it dawned on me that he was the only horse who had already been seen over hurdles and I think that fitness won the day. He's an honourable horse, but he shouldn't be winning this. So the other 4 should all come on for the run and the one I like most is Fabalot. He tried to make the running at Pakenham as he usually does and when he was caught I thought he was going to drop away, but he didn't and actually looked like he might win again on the run-in before he just flattened out with his effort. To me it looked like a run that would leave him spot on for this and it was a race he finished 2nd in last year and given his trainer it will have been the target race again. Annoyingly the original favourite Bedford has come out because I really wanted to take him on. The Mighty Spar was 1 place behind Fabalot at Pakenham and ought to improve on his first run in Australia from New Zealand in the same way his stablemate Leaderboard improved on Tuesday. Pure Deal ran in the opening race at Pakenham and ran well given he hadn't run since last May. He's only got a maiden win to his name, but he should find improvement from that run last time. I've always thought of Rising Renown as below this level, but he did beat El Diez at Ballarat so he has to have some sort of chance based on that. Given who trains Chains Of Honour he has to be respected as well, but he hasn't been seen over hurdles since August 2022 and I notice he has had a steeplechase trial so I wonder if this is being used as a run before going over fences. So all in all I am hoping that Fabalot can go one place better than last year. Fabalot 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365

The May Warrnambool Carnival would mean as anywhere near as much as it does if it didn't have jumps racing and we have the biggest jumps race of the season in the Grand Annual on Thursday. On Day 1 though we have 4 jumps races with the maiden hurdle having been divided 3 times and then the other big chase of the week, the Brierly, also on the card. Oddschecker don't have the meeting on their pages as the moment so I have just used Bet365 prices Race 1 Alakahan started life in Ireland having a couple of starts for Mick Halford before going to Oz where he has had a solid career on the flat and the 3rd at Caulfield was a good effort in February. He's not been so good in his last 2 starts though. I watched his hurdle trial at the start of the month and it was good apart from one jump which he dived at, but apart from that I was impressed. I was stood at the last flight for Dubai Moon's race at Pakenham and I was counting my winnings as he looked home and hosed. However he stopped on the run-in and Affluential got past him just before the post. I guessed he had just got tired, but the jockey reported to the stewards that he thought the horse had sighted the hurdle after the winning post and as a result failed to fully finish the race off. Clearly he ought to know more than me and the horse certainly didn't look tired jumping the last. He's run again on the flat since, but he's clearly a horse who takes his racing well. Sir Peter and Jack Knows Best both ran in the Pakenham race, but I can't really see a reason for them reversing form. Extra Elusive was trained by Roger Charlton over here and the pick of his efforts would be the Rose Of Lancaster win at Haydock in August 2020. He then won at Windsor, but it has been downhill from there and the move to Australia hasn't really worked as that Windsor win is his last win. To be fair he's had some good place efforts and was 2nd in a good version of the Great Western Cup last time in January and was 3rd in the Kerang Cup a month ago. I liked his hurdle trial performance prior to that which he won at Terang and he jumped really well on the whole. Chances are it is between those 3 as the betting suggests and I am going to give Dubai Moon another chance as he looked like he was going to be an impressive winner jumping the last and I will trust the jockey in what he told the stewards to be the case. Dubai Moon 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 Race 2 Apache Thunder was 2nd on the flat last time in a BM58, but he put in a few bad jumps in his trial here a couple of weeks ago. Bazini showed a decent level of ability on the flat although he didn't run well in his last 3 races after finishing 2nd in the Terang Cup a year ago. This does look like it has been his target though as his first two hurdles trials he was quietly ridden, but it was the total opposite here last time where he was a very impressive winner. Davelliom improved on his 5th on hurdles debut over course and distance last month when 3rd at Ballarat last time behind Lincoln King. He ticked over with a run on the flat last week. Southern France might ring a bell as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien. He finished 2nd in the 2018 Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, 3rd in that years St Leger, 2nd in the following year's Yorkshire Cup and 3rd in the Irish St Leger. He then went over for the Melbourne Cup and only beat 5 home. He then won the G2 Sandown Classic and it looked like he might have a decent Australian career, but he hasn't won since and has really struggled recently. Jumps looks like a last throw of the dice and he has had 4 trials over hurdles. He did win the last of them here a couple of weeks ago and was quite impressive in doing so. The Awesome Son was a huge gamble at Pakenham which baffled me and he was a well beaten 5th. Wilewink won his trial here a couple of weeks ago by 20L and clocked a time around 20s quicker than Apache Thunder and Southern France did when they trialed over the same distance. He was the only one who tried to win though and I didn't like his jumping. He did win a BM64 at Stawell on Easter Sunday and he doesn't usually make the running. That was also over 2700m so he should stay the 3200m trip. They look the ones to focus on and I like Bazini to win. Given his trainer he will have been primed for this and I really liked his trial. The concern about Wilewink for me is his jumping which is mainly why I prefer Bazini. Bazini 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 Race 3 Freddy The Eagle was 33L behind Irish Butterfly in a trail here back in March, but since he has finished 2nd and then won on the flat over 1600m and 2100m both in 0-58 grade which is as low as you can get. He was put into the trial much more here a couple of weeks ago when finishing a close 2nd although his jumping was just OK and when upsides the winner at the last he just missed it. Irish Butterfly ran really well in his hurdle debut when a length 2nd to Elementry here in March. Given Elementry went onto win at Pakenham the form was franked. The ground was pretty quick that day and his jockey did get off and say that a softer track would suit and he is going to get that here. He's had another hurdle trial since to keep him ticking over. Leaderboard looks like being the only other possible winner. He was a bet for me at Pakenham and he drifted like a barge on his first Australian start. As they turned for home he just seemed to get held up behind horses and that is when the winner made his move and he just couldn't get going quickly enough to get to the impressive winner. He pulled clear of the rest and Gambu and Aquileon were the next two home. Given his flat form in New Zealand I think he's capable of better than that and I think he can improve off the back of that Pakenham run. I think he will enjoy the softer conditions here as well and whilst I'm think Irish Butterfly deserves to be favourite, Leaderboard looks the value to me because I think he can do better than the Pakenham effort. Leaderboard 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 Race 6 The Brierly is the feature race on Day 1 and it is hard to see past Stern Idol winning it. He went pretty hard as he usually does at Pakenham and whilst the 2nd got within 2.5L he was always going to win. That effort should put him spot on for this and he's the best chaser in Australia. The one slight concern I guess is that the only time he has run here he failed to finish in the Grand Annual last year, but he just doesn't stay that far. He has actually been declared to run in the race again on Thursday which surprises me and I am even bigger surprised that he is the Even money fav for Thursday. This race looks ideal for him and it will be disappointing if he does get beat. Sadly though Bell Ex One has been scratched just before I posted this and he's now too short to back. Brittanicus won this race last year and then ran poorly at Sandown before missing the rest of the season. He doesn't like the ground heavy so the fact they are having to water to make the ground soft enough should make things ideal for him. He's had plenty of trials and had a perfectly fine flat run at Stawell on Easter Sunday. He has solid place claims. Mighty Oasis and Instigator are 1 win apiece against each other this season and I thought Mighty Oasis was unlucky not to get the race in the stewards room over course and distance. He does run well here, but I wonder if he might go better in the Grand Annual on Thursday as he stays well. So impossible to see past Stern Idol for me and I think Brittanicus could be the one to follow him so will play the forcast. Stern Idol to beat Brittanicus 1pt f/c

Finally get chance to watch a meeting in the flesh and I have a nightmare. I was stood by the last for Dubai Moon’s race and thought the race was won. Still can’t believe he got beat. Budd Fox just jumped better than Tom Foolery and that’s made the difference. Was a tough card to make money from though although my 7yo son managed to! Will be back for the big Warrnambool Carnival next month and hopefully the 2 football teams win for you.

Annoyingly Oddschecker doesn’t have the meeting on their site so I will just use Bet365 prices, but others will be betting in it. Race 1 Pure Deal has been backed for this in what is a tight betting market, but I will side with Custom Of The Sea as he looked like a promising sort in Ireland and with him winning on the flat last time he is clearly in good heart in Oz as well. Good race despite the 4 runners. Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 Race 2 Credit Crunch has come out and he was put in as 2nd fav which surprised me and it means the price on Leaderboard has come in, but he has the potential to be useful and looks the best of these. Race 3 Betting has it between Jack Knows Best and Dubai Moon which is right for me and I would make the latter the fav so as he isn’t he is the bet. Dubai Moon 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 Race 4 I had sort of hoped that it would be possible to back both The Mighty Spar and Fabalot, but that isn’t the case and or me Fabalot is the one who is value. He had some very strong form over hurdles last season and brings the best hurdles form into the race. I’d have him as the market leader myself. Fabalot 1pt @ 13/5 Race 5 No surprise that Tom Foolery is the fav here given most of the horses in the race are the ones he beat last week. Technically this is a step up in grade, but I think the winner of the 0-114 race was much improved and given he pushed him close it was a strong piece of form. I’m surprised Budd Fox is 2nd in as I suspect he will need this. Not Usual Dream would be the bigger danger for me and Blood And Sand might outrun his odds. Tom Foolery 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365 Race 6 Stern Idol should win this. A good run on the flat means he is in good form and this is his ideal trip and conditions. Rockstar Ronnie ought to be 2nd best, but no doubt this is being used as a prep for the Grand Annual. I am happy to back Leaderboard and Stern Idol in a double. Leaderboard and Stern Idol 1pt double @ 1.79/1 with Bet365

Yeah it was poor rides from those in behind as she’s a good horse and you can’t give a horse like her that big a margin, but it was a hell of a performance from her.

Off to Pakenham we go on Sunday for a whole jumps card and personally it has the extra bonus as I will actually be at Pakenham to watch the action and it should be a good card. Hopefully it can build on last weeks profits as well. To start with it will just be my notes and then I will add bets when the races are priced up. Race 1 Only 4 runners in this 1 jumps win hurdle. Custom Of The Sea has come from Joseph O’Brians and he made two starts over hurdles for him. He won impressively on debut in a maiden at Killarney last May and was then 2nd at Ballinrobe a few weeks later. Media Naranja was the horse who beat him that day and he is rated 122 at the moment and ran at The Festival. Since going to Oz he has had 3 flat runs and won the last of them at Ballarat so he is in good form. He has trialled a couple of times since to keep him ticking over and he ought to be capable of decent things over hurdles in Australia. Calvi beat Elementry at Warrnambool by 5.2L although the latter was pretty green that day and clearly benefitted from the experience when winning back there a couple of weeks later. It wouldn’t surprise me if he reverses the form as he could get an easy lead. Pure Deal was 3rd in a maiden at this meeting last year in a hot race and then he won his maiden at Warrnambool. He was very disappointing at Sandown on his next start and he hasn’t been seen since in a actual race. He has had plenty of trials and has won the 2 hurdles won he has had. Race 2 Aqulleon showed a bit of ability over hurdles in 2 starts last season when a 8.2L 3rd at Warrnambool in May and a 4.7L 4th at Sale in June. Well beaten in 3 flat starts so far this year. Gambu was 3rd at Warrnambool 2.7L behind Calvi and was then well beaten at the time when falling a couple of weeks later. 5.1L 4th last week wasn’t bad though. Huntley Castle was meant to run last week and I didn’t really fancy him that day and has only trialed OK over hurdles. Leaderboard won the Wellington Cup last January in New Zealand although well beaten in it last time this year. 5th only start over hurdles in NZ, but I was impressed with his hurdles trial last week. The Awesome Son did manage a 2nd at Coleraine last season, but his 2 starts either side of that weren’t great. Credit Crunch has been last in last 3 starts on the flat, but there were at Metro tracks. Didn’t overly impress in his jumping in his trial last week. Race 3 Affluential is a maiden on the flat, but could be a better hurdler based on his trial win last week. Dubai Moon won 4 on the bounce in about 2 weeks in January and February on the level. He was poor on his next 3 starts, but then looked good in a hurdle trial. Ran at Kyneton on Thursday and was a close 5th. Jack Knows Best won as a long odds on fav on the flat in February. He was then a good 3rd in a stronger race last month. Solid hurdles trial prior to that 3rd. This isn’t a strong race, but not sure Oz Legend or Sir Peter did enough on their hurdles debut to carry my money here. Race 4 The feature hurdle is the MJ Bourke and last year’s winner Blandford Lad tries to win it again. That was a good effort to just beat Aaunter Boy, but it was downhill from that last season. He has been last in his 2 flat runs this year although he did easily win a hurdle trial last week. I would add though that he looked like the only one who tried to win the race. Fabalot was 4th in the opening contest on this card last year and built on that to finish 2nd in the Galleywood finishing in front of Blandford Lad. After that he won at Casterton before running no sort of race the next time. He then bolted up in the JJ Houlahan on the final day of the season. Has had a couple of prep runs on the flat for this. Out And Dreaming was 2nd in this in 2022 but last hurdles run was in June that year. Had 1 flat run last year and 1 in February. Won a hurdle trial a month ago, but suspect he will need this. El Diez was a decent 2nd last week and runs pretty much every week, but suspect this will be a bit above him although he does have the fitness edge. The Might Spar won last time on the flat in New Zealand. He was also 7th in the New Zealand Cup in November. Won a maiden hurdle last year and then 3rd on his other hurdles start. Promising enough trial last week. Race 5 Not Usual Dream was 4th in this last season and then 4th in the Australian Steeple. He then won at Sale the following month. He was 2nd on the flat at Ballarat last week. Blood And Sand didn’t run that badly last week at Ballarat in the feature chase and a chance if building on that. Budd Fox was 2nd in this 2 years ago beaten just 0.2L and then wasn’t seen for 75 weeks. Has been poor on the flat since. We then have 5 horses who ran in the 0-114 Steeple last week behind Duke Of Bedford. The best of them was Tom Foolery who was a good 2nd to the impressive winner. Raise Your Sights was 7.25L back in 3rd, Fort Charles 9.5L back in 4th and Dr Dependable and She Shed So 5th and 7th. Given Tom Foolery made a mistake at the last and that race was slightly quicker than the feature I take him to confirm that form from last week. Race 6 I was hoping Stern Idol was going to run in the feature Steeple of the afternoon because I wanted to see the best jumps horse in Oz in the flesh. He has been so impressive on most of his jumps starts since coming over from France and he bolted up in this race last year. He then failed to finish in the Grand Annual, but he just doesn’t stay that far. He did manage to win the Crisp at Sandown over 4200m, but then disappointed over even further in the Grand National. He looks just in as good form ahead of this jumps prep as he has trialled well and also had a really good 2nd on the flat at Sandown last month. Hard to see how he gets beat and he should bolt up really. Rockstar Ronnie did win the Grand Annual and no doubt the ex Dan Skelton horse will be going back there next month. He was well behind Stern Idol in the Crisp on his last jumps start. Brungle Bertie was the one who took advantage of Stern Idols poor run in the Grand National and I would imagine he’s another with the Grand Annual as his target. He was a well beaten 4th behind Stern Idol in the Crisp. Tolemac won the Australian Stepple last season, but was stuffed in the Crisp and a well beaten 4th in the Grand National.

Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front. Race 6 The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral. Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill Race 7 The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this. Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far. I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup. Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone Athabascan @ 7 with everyone Amade @ 10 with Bet365 Race 8 The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better. Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill

I’m amazed both tips are drifting to be honest especially Spyglass Hill who I would have as favourite.

A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race. Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked. Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again. Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner. Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough. Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then. Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that. Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely. Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough. Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players. Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here. Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view. Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season. Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock. Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th. Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him. Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round. Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side. Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race. Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour. The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal. Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins. Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so. The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite. Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him. The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view. Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5. Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)

It was meant to be Hamilton tomorrow, but there is an issue with the track so we head to Ballarat instead for 2 hurdles and 2 chases. Race 1 This doesn’t look a strong maiden hurdle and I am going to give Lincoln King another chance. He was fav on hurdles debut at Coleraine last August, but was only 5th. I am prepared to forgive that effort though as he lost a shoe and had minor abrasions on his leg. He was poor in the Adelaide Cup last time, but ran well in a Listed Race at Moonee Valley the time before and he is easily the best horse of these on the flat. Murrumbidgee River was well beaten at Pakenham on hurdles debut last July, but he never travelled and was lame after the race. He was quite short in the market that day and could do better here after a fair prep run on the flat last time. Gunaluva is the other one to mention. He was 2nd in a couple of maiden hurdles last season and won a maiden chase although that was a weak race, but clearly is one of the main contenders here. Lincoln King 1pt @ 11/10 with everyone Race 2 Okataina is odds on after easily winning a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool on hurdles debut. He went from the front and his task was made easier after Grand Promanade sadly departed the race. I can see why he’s at the head of the market as he brings fresh form to this race, but its hard to think he is value and I will back a couple e/w instead. Count Zero likes to front run as well and won a couple of times last season at Terang and Casterton. He was also 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown and that is all form which means he can go well here. The other one I like is ex Irish horse Crosshill. He ended up winning the opening race of the season when the long odds on fav fell and he ended up with an easy task. Even so he has strong hurdles form in Ireland and he looks over priced at double figure odds. Count Zero 0.5pts e/w @ 11/1 with Skybet Crosshill 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with Skybet Race 3 A low grade steeplechase which sees Duke Of Bedford head the market. He struggled a bit after winning a maiden chase last season, but fair to say this is a class drop from those efforts. I’m going to look to the chasing newcomers instead and I think Fort Charles is worth a small bet. He showed ability over hurdles in 2022, but only ran in one flat race in 2023 so clearly something went amiss. He’s had plenty of trials and 2 flat runs to build his fitness up and he just beat Tom Foolery in a chase trial last month. I thought he jumped better than the 2nd in that trial and it is why I favour him to win. Fort Charles 1pt @ 9/2 with most bookies Race 4 Instigator just got the better of Might Oasis in the first chase of the season at Warrnambool yet for some reason is much shorter in the betting here. I thought he was slightly fortunate not to lose the race in the stewards room as well so I am happy to give Mighty Oasis another chance and he might well reverse the form. The one slight concern is he just seem to go well at Warrnambool, but that is factored into the price for me. Vanguard is solid, but I’d imagine he is working towards the Grand Annual next month. The Rattlin’ Bog can go well on chasing debut, whilst I’m a little surprised to see Mr Coyne be so strong in the betting as I don’t really fancy him. Might Oasis 1pt @ 15/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair

On the forum.

When it comes to Australian flat races I just cover the big meetings as I really don’t have the time to do it week in week out. I have a separate thread for Aussie jumps racing on here and I cover every race during the season and the next 4 races are tomorrow so previews for those will be up at some point.

Great day but so close to being even better! Amazing after all the rain they had they got the meeting on and the track raced really well.

Hopefully it will be Day 1 of The Championships at Randwick in Sydney on Saturday although the area is having a crazy amount of rain so it could be called off. What is certain is that the ground will be very testing and that is going to be a big factor in how things play out. I have taken a look at 3 races on the card. Race 2 This is a Group 2 over 2600m and the main bet is the ex-Stoute trained Circle Of Fire. He was 3rd in the Lingfield Derby Trial last year and then 4th in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting. Since going to Oz he has had 2 4ths over 1600m and 1900m showing promise both times. As his form in the UK suggests he should relish stepping up to this sort of trip. He has yet to run on a testing surface so that is an unknown, but otherwise he has a leading chance. At a bigger price Hopeful looks to have a fair chance. Well beaten 1st up, but he needs further than the 2000m that day. What really interests me though are his ground stats. He has no platings in 7 starts on good ground, on soft ground he has been in the 1st 3 10 times in 14 starts and in 3 starts on heavy ground 2 have seen him in the platings. There should be big improvement from him up in trip on a testing surface. Circle of Fire @ 4/1 with most bookies Hopeful e/w @ 16/1 with most bookies Race 7 The big sprint on the card is the T J Smith. I’m not sure Imperatriz is in as good form as she was in her last prep and I’m happy enough to look elsewhere. I Wish I Win is 1st up here, but he does have a solid 1st up record and I think he can go close to winning this for the 2nd year running. That came on a Heavy 9 and his last start saw him finish a slightly unlucky 2nd in the The Everest when he didn’t get a clear run until the final 200m. The other one I like is Bella Nipotina. She is a solid mare who has been running well so far this prep. She loves a heavy track and that could easily see her improve enough to hit the frame at least here. I Wish I Win @ 14/5 with Bet365 Bella Nipotina e/w @ 9/1 with most bookies Race 8 The Doncaster Mile is a big field handicap and Another Wil was a short price favourite for this, but he then drew stall 21 which is going to be a worry. He is a horse on the upgrade though and he was impressive last Saturday at Rosehill. I do like the horse, but this is the hardest race he has been in, he has a shocking draw and I’m not sure about the 7 day back up for him either. He’s around the 11/4 mark and it is hard to say that is value. With that said I am look to take 3 at double figure odds and then another couple at huge odds to small stakes. Plenty of UK bookies are going 4 places as well (on Aussie rules it is only 3 places despite the field size). All these have wet track form and look to be coming here in solid form. Detonator Jack, Southport Tycoon and Zougotcha are those at shorter double figure odds and the 2 at massive odds are Pericles and Semana. I should just say Berkshire Shadow runs in this on his 2nd start in Oz and he his a huge price if he can run to the form he showed in the Lockinge or the Queen Anne. He was average in that 1st run at Flemington though. Detonator Jack e/w @ 11/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes Southport Tycoon e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R) Zougotcha e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R) Pericles e/w @ 50/1 with William Hill Semana e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill (N/R)

The last two races were called off because the ground was too quick and sadly Grand Promenade was killed in a fall in the first.

Back to Warrnambool for the 2nd meeting of the season for 4 races Race 1 The maiden hurdle has divided and the first division sees G3 winner and 6th placed in the 2021 Melbourne Cup Grand Promenade make his hurdles debut. I watched his last trial and he jumped well apart from making one bad mistake, but it was good to see that he picked up well from it and it didn't stop him. He finished 2nd behind Okataina who was given a bold front running ride. In also won his previous trial where he just caught Southern France who had built up a massive lead but got run down. Okataina is nowhere near Grand Promenade's flat ability, but clearly enjoys hurdles and comes from a top yard. Southern France might ring a bell as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien. He finished 2nd in the 2018 Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, 3rd in that years St Leger, 2nd in the following year's Yorkshire Cup and 3rd in the Irish St Leger. He then went over for the Melbourne Cup and only beat 5 home. He then won the G2 Sandown Classic and it looked like he might have a decent Australian career, but he hasn't won since and has really struggled recently. Jumps looks like a last throw of the dice and it will be interesting to see how he gets on, but I can't back him. Tarn's Prince ran well enough when 2nd here a couple of weeks ago, but I suspect now he's in a proper race that Grand Promenade should be too good for Okataina and the rest. No bet Race 2 This is probably a two horse race unless Elementry steps up from an OK debut a couple of weeks ago. Extra Elusive was trained by Roger Charlton over here and the pick of his efforts would be the Rose Of Lancaster win at Haydock in August 2020. He went downhill from there though and the move to Australia hasn't really worked as that Haydock win is his last win. To be fair he's had some good place efforts and was 2nd in a good version of the Great Western Cup last time. I liked his trial performance last time which he won at Terang and he jumped really well on the whole. Irish Butterfly is the other at the head of the market and he jumped well enough when winning a trial last time. He was so far clear of the others that you couldn't even see all of his jumps. He's decent enough on the flat as well. I'm going to take Extra Elusive to win this because he is the better horse on the flat and I thought he really attacked his hurdles well in the trial and he could well get the better of his market rival. Extra Elusive 1pt @ 6/5 with everyone Race 3 These BM120 hurdles were tricky last season and we see plenty of the same old faces lining up in this. One exception to that is the favourite Pure Deal and he does strike me as the most likely winner. He has only had 3 starts over hurdles all last April and May. At Pakenham he was a close 3rd in a maiden which worked out very well and he duly landed his maiden over this course and distance the following month. He then went into BM120 company at Sandown and was very disappointing. Clearly there was a reason for that because he hasn't run in a proper race since. He's had a few jump outs and trials though and he won both hurdles trials at Cranbourne and Terang looking promising in the process. He looks the one horse in this race who could progress higher up the ranks. 2nd in is Abreed and he's only had 4 starts, but he was 7th in that same Pakenham maiden and he ended up winning his maiden 2 starts later at Sale which isn't as strong form. He was only beaten 0.2L into 3rd in this grade at Pakenham last July and that's probably why he has the same mark as Pure Deal, but given he has about 10L to make up on the run last April I am happy to back the favourite against him. The rest are all solid horses and capable of winning at some point this season. Count Zero might be the biggest danger as his 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle obviously reads very well, but he does have a lot of weight because of it. Rising Renown and That's Incranibull have claims and good old El Diez turns up at pretty much every meeting and usually runs his race, but I am happy to go with the least exposed horse in the race. Pure Deal 1pt @ 13/10 with Bet365 Race 5 Good to see the Steeplechase on the card has had 13 entries because you don't usually have emergencies in them, but it seems plenty want to go chasing this season. I like Budd Fox here who has only had 3 starts over jumps the first 3 of which came back in 2021. He won a maiden hurdle at Pakenham in April and was then 4th in a BM120 at Sandown the following month. The following year he ran at the same Pakenham meeting in the BM125 steeplechase and was beaten 0.2L by Valac. He then went missing for 77 weeks and has had 3 starts on the flat plus various trials and jump outs since. That Valac form is very strong and I watched his trial here a couple of weeks ago and he looked in good shape and loved jumping the fences. Even though he hasn't been seen in a jumps race for a long time, he should be fit and with the other jumps form on other not making a huge amount of appeal I am happy to take him as being the best horse in the race. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Yulong Place who I put up in the first race of the season. He hadn't run since 2022, but had finished 2nd in the Thackeray and Crisp which were good efforts, plus he was a course and distance winner. He looked very fresh and keen 13 days ago and I thought he ran well until the effort told late on and was allowed to coast home in his own time. He might still need another run, but at huge odds he's worth a small play. Budd Fox 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair Yulong Place 0.5pts e/w @ 22/1 with Bet365

Rarely will a race plan out just as you think it will and rarely will than happen in the biggest hunter chase of the season, but pretty much everything I thought would happen at Cheltenham did happen. Obviously it helped I backed her, but I am really pleased that Sine Nomine won as it is a great result for British pointing. I had a interesting discussion with Johnny Dineen on Twitter who reckoned British hunter chases were just full of crocs which quite frankly was a disgraceful thing to say and she helped prove him wrong. She did what she always does and cruised round for most of the way until things got very interesting coming to the last. Having seen the head on I personally think John had every right to go up the inside and it was a bit of a naughty move from Derek. I'm sure he would say it was just race riding, but if John hadn't switched the mare you do wonder what might have happened. The switch just before the fence meant she didn't actually jump it all that well and she didn't look the winner at that stage. She flew up the run-in though and certainly proved any doubts I had about her seeing out the trip wrong because she ate up the ground to catch and pass Its On The Line. She's a top class mare and given her age you have to think she has a good chance of coming back next year and winning again. She hasn't been entered at Aintree and Cheltenham and Stratford have been mentioned as remaining targets for the season. Its On The Line did travel well for a fair way and it was going down the back for the last time that he started having to be niggled along, but that was hardly a surprise. It was also no surprise that he kept going and going because that is what he does. He ran his race and I think he was just beaten by a better horse on the day who would have won by further if she hadn't had to switch before the last. It was a very good ride, but I saw some say that only he could have got him to run so well, but as I said in the preview he didn't ride him to win at Down Royal and he was hard work that day so I don't buy that. Derek reckons the horse will prefer Aintree, but he fell at Bechers last year and he was quite a long way back at the time. I'm not going to say he can't win, but he's been put in as favourite and it will need a very good ride if he finds himself out the back again for most of the race. The heavier the ground the better his chance I suspect. If he stays hunter chasing then no doubt he will be a big player in this again next year. You may remember that I was tossing up putting up Time Leader or Quintin's Man as the 3rd pick and the ground being testing put me off Time Leader. That was clearly a mistake and I did briefly wonder if it was going to be a serious error when he led turning for home. Fortunately for us the ground did mean he didn't see it out as well as the first 2 and I do think his jockey might have been right in saying that if the ground had been better he might well have won the race. He is going to be a big player at Aintree where a mistake at the chair put him on the back foot before he made up loads of ground to finish 5th. The in running comment for D'Jango does not mention that he made any mistakes which is just daft because he made loads and whilst he didn't look like falling they cost him plenty of ground. The data says that he lost 16L on the field average through his jumping and the 2nd and 3rd gained between 12 and 15 lengths through their jumping so that's around a 30L swing. It was some effort for him to nab Billaway on the line for 4th. It backed up that his form has improved massively since going to his new yard. He didn't jump all that well at Warwick when he won so dropping back down in grade shouldn't be an issue if he still jumps poorly. I think he looks an ideal candidate for the 4m race on hunter chase night and the slower pace should mean his jumping isn't under so much pressure. He is a proven stayer as well. Billaway has run his usual solid race and made a bad error at the last. He will be 13 next year, but he might be back if he's still showing something. I'd imagine Punchestown will be on his agenda this season. The even older Shantou Flyer was the last to finish and the stiff test of stamina probably wasn't ideal for him, but to be beaten 20L at his age was still a huge effort and it was great to see him run well. Onto the non-finishers and lets start with Ferns Lock. He looked a bit on edge when he left the parade ring and was wearing the red hood. As soon as that came off at the start though he lost the plot and any chance of him staying disappeared. He ran as he usually does and was too free up front, but his jumping also let him down at time as not only did he make some bad mistakes he also occasionally jumped out to his right. I thought he was going to be a strong bet for Aintree, but on the back of this effort I have some doubts. It wont be as big a crowd at Aintree, but you still have to wonder if he is going to go mental again and. His jumping is now a concern and will he empty on the long run-in? He is clearly still mentally immature and he needs to grow up. Last year's winner Premier Magic never really looked like he was going to get involved in the finish. I found it bizarre that a few in the media felt he was over priced and was a great e/w bet because there was no proof he was in the same form as last year on his pointing form. He might not have stayed in this deeper ground, but I just think he might have regressed at the age of 11. Quintin's Man was disappointing for me and I was surprised that Darren said the horse was unsuited by the ground as I thought he need it testing. He never got involved anyway and maybe he just isn't up to it. Samcro pulled up as well which was no surprise. So it was a smaller than usual field, but I think the quality was there and for me it was a classy renewal with the best two horses finishing 1st and 2nd. Ferns Lock is clearly good, but he needs to mature.

Possibly, but I guess you want to give them a chance to sort it out before resorting to further methods and actually the fact it should have been starting again this week probably helped as well.

Amazing result and one I didn't think was going to happen, certainly not as quickly as it has.

I have got Tony Calvin to mention it in the Betfair podcast today.

That is shocking. I will see what I can do. I had many interactions with Graham in the last year or so of his life and the fact that this has been done by people he trusted to set it up in his honour is disgraceful

That is very kind of you mate. The charity will be thrilled.