Darran
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Posts posted by Darran
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Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011
Like I said he was the one person out of the main contenders who looked overpriced although given what I think of trying to find the winner of the competiton I still couldnt bring myself to back him and it was no surprise that he was tipped up in the Racing Post, especially as they tipped up quite a few things I did. He could still be fighting it out for 3rd and still finish highly in the KOTM. Also lets be fair he is going to be further behind those guys after todays stage.I don't think Sanchez's goals would have changed yet. Let's be honest, he was never going to win the tour, and he can easily make up 1'14 on Gesink and Basso and Van Den Broeck, or 1'17 on Evans, who are realistically the people he is and always was racing for what was always going to be 3rd place (if Andy and Alberto finish). The only leeway Sanchez might now get due to being behind is that if the favourites are the lead group, they (Andy and Alberto) might not chase Sanchez. But Gesink and Cadel still will. That's not to say Sanchez should be a longer price than Gesink to win KOTM though. I'm sticking with Gadret for now - he lost 1'55 and clearly isn't riding for GC, and as we saw last year, if he wants to win KOTM, then he's probably not going to care much aboute Roche's GC hopes. -
Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011
Why do you hope that? Given what happened in the Giro I think its pretty horrible to want any rider to have a crash.Nothing for me today. Hate trying to decipher TTTs so will simply hope that Cavendish crashes out :lol -
Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Cav has actually managed to get up tougher climbs than the one yesterday and was in the main group until getting held up by the 2nd crash. The way the stage ended he probably wouldnt have won but it would have been interesting to see where he would have finished. Sanchez wouldnt have to break away to win thats why the likes of Contador are the market leaders because the points are weighted more towards the mountain top finishes than they have been in previous years. He might just start focusing on trying to get himself points in that competition now. Id read nothing into the intermediate sprint yesterday as it looked a repeat of when Cav failed to win the first sprint stage last year. Come the stage finishes Cav should beat him easily. Gilbert could win two more stages this week but there is talk he was only going to hang around for the first week so Im not sure Id want to be backing him.
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Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 If your having an each/way bet on Stage 2 then be very careful as the bookies are offering different place terms depending on who you bet with. Im having a small each/way play on Team Sky who are 8/1 with Blue Square first 3 1/4 odds. They seem a bit over priced to me given they have been targeting this stage all season from the sounds of it. I can easily see them gaining a top 3 place in what is a five team race and it would hardly be a shock if they won.
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Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011
Well Ladbrokes have paid me out so your unlucky if you dont. Basically Goss would have come across the line in 183rd place but because he was involved in the crash within the final 3km he was given the same time as the 6 second group.Does anyone nows why Goss is placed 183th in the stage classification and 77th in the overall standings? He should have the same postion in both like the others who crashed in the second incident. This ruins my head to head bet vs Pettacchi and Feillou. -
Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 It was clear on the final climb no one was going to beat Gilbert. Sanchez is going to struggle to get into the top 5 now given he will lose over a minute to most contenders tomorrow so he could be an interesting contender for the KOM. He was one person I thought was over priced for it anyway and the Racing Post did tip him up this morning. Schleck is now fav on Betfair as I think the market is beginning to catch up with the fact he has been given the same time as the 6 second group.
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Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Im amazed Contador is still fav over Schleck as he has lost over a minute to him already and is almost certain to lose more tomorrow. I had one bet in running as Matt Goss was 4/6 in a match bet with Petacchi which looked like it was buying money although it certainly got a bit hairy waiting for the result to come in.
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Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 It was only two years ago Wiggins came 4th so hardly a few years. Also Wiggins finished higher than Basso did in the Tour last year. Both have missed the Giro to focus on the Tour this year so it will be interesting to see how they both get on.
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Re: Johnston Stable
Whys it a silly comment? Hes made plenty of them on here of late and is basically saying that hardly any trainer is any good. If he knows best then he should be able to make a decent living out of it.What a silly comment. We can all have opinions It's like everyone slagging of a footie team and the manager, happens all the time, then saying "why don't you manage a football team if you know so much about it".............. -
Re: Johnston Stable I tell you what why dont you take up training and see how you get on given you seem to know so much about it.
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Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Yeah the KOTM is fine if you find the winner but it could easily go to one of the GC contenders this year and I am happy to leave it alone. I read Boassan Hagen wouldnt even be in the race but as he is lining up hopefully all is well.
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Re: Cycling 2011 - Tour de France 2011 Here are my thoughts on this years Tour Yellow Jersey First thing to say is that it will be a massive shock if Alberto Contador or Andy Schleck do not win this year’s Tour de France. There is obviously a lot of controversy about Contador being here, and even if he did win he could easily lose the crown when the doping hearing is held after the race. Schleck should really have claimed the race last year, and his chain coming off obviously didn’t help, but it was a little disappointing not to see him attack Contador, who was not at his best. Perhaps if Andy’s brother Frank had not of had to retire early on he may well have won. The two riders will be able to gang up on Contador this year as his team is pretty weak, and given it’s a real climbers tour, Andy looks to have a massive chance of winning his first Tour de France. Contador rode the Giro d’Italia this year and won it at a canter, but it was a very tough route and it is very hard to follow a good effort in the Giro with a good effort in the Tour. The last person to win both was Marco Pantani, and he was on a collection of drugs. Given he won it so easily, perhaps it didn’t take that much out of him, but given the massive price difference between the two, I am happy to take Contador on. Stan James have an enhanced win market and Schleck is 12/5 which looks value to me in what I consider to be a two horse race. Without the top two Behind Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador it is pretty wide open as to who will join them on the podium. The great thing in this market is that the each-way terms are 1/4 odds the first three with Paddy Power, thus the cyclist probably only needs to finish in the top five to get a return. It’s for that reason I am going to have four selections, two big ones and two riskier. If I had to name the person I thought would finish third in Paris it would be Robert Gesink. The course this year looks perfectly suited to him as he is a pure climber and given how well he rode last year when finishing sixth, he really should be up to improving on that this time, especially as he is the Rabobank team leader. He is 5/1 with Paddy Power. Another superb rider in the mountains is last year’s fourth Samuel Sanchez. He will lose time in the team time trail which will make it hard for him to end up on the podium but he will gain time on a lot of his rivals in this market in the mountains and for that reason I am keen to have him onside as I think it will be enough to see him finish in the top five. Paddy Power have him priced at 6/1. I am surprised Frank Schleck is available at 11/1 in this market as he is a strong climber in his own right and although he is going to be mainly helping his brother win the yellow jersey, that should naturally lead to a high placing in the overall and a top 5 finish would not surprise. The final pick is a little more risky but I think Janez Brajkovic can have a very good Tour this year. He had his first experience of the race last year when there to support Lance Armstrong and thus he had to ride within himself. Although Radioshack have three other top 10 candidates, it looks like going in to the Tour they are making Brajkovic their number one GC hope. Paddy Power have him priced up at 20/1 and that is worth taking. Sportingbet offer 11/4 to finish in the top 10 and that is a really attractive bet, especially as Blue Square only go 9/10. I’ve got a feeling that the likes of Ivan Basso and Cadel Evans aren’t quite good enough anymore to follow the top contenders in the high mountains so I am happy to oppose them. Bradley Wiggins is in superb form going into this year’s Tour and I can easily see him gaining a top 10 place after his woeful showing last time around, although he is too short to back. Green Jersey It is one of the biggest mysteries in sport how Mark Cavendish has not won the Green Jersey at the Tour de France and he will be hoping to put that right in 2011. They have changed the points system this year so stage winners get a much bigger gain on the people who finish behind them. The other thing that has changed is that there is only one intermediate sprint on each stage with 20 points being available to the winner of those. In some ways these changes help Cavendish but it is hard to fully tell how they will affect the points competition until we see them in practice. There is a maximum of seven stages that suit Cavendish, and given how far clear he is of the rest, I reckon he can win another five stages just like he did last time. People claim he isn’t in great form, but it has been the same in previous years and come the Tour he has blown the opposition away, often winning by some distance. He primes himself to be ready for July and if he claims those five victories you would hope that would be enough to secure the green jersey. On stages where he can’t win, like Stage 1, I expect to see him race for the intermediate sprint points as if that is his stage finish of the day. Paddy Power and William Hill go 7/5 on him wining and I think that’s a pretty fair price. Paddy Power also go 9/4 on him winning over 4.5 stages, whilst we can cover ourselves by having a saver on him winning 3-4 stages at 6/5 with Blue Square. Given the fact there are three tough finishes in the first week it would be wise to back someone who is a capable climber but can also sprint and although Philippe Gilbert is expected to possibly win three stages in week one, I can’t see him picking up too many points elsewhere, but Edvald Boasson Hagen is someone who could. He is capable of high placings on the tough finishes in the first week and as he demonstrated last year, he can finish pretty high in the sprint finishes as well. At 15/1 with bet365, he is worth a small each-way bet. King Of The Mountains This is a competition that I have left well alone in recent years because it has become such a lottery with a rider who ends up picking up a load of points in a breakaway winning it. They have also changed the way points are won in this competition which makes it less likely for that to happen and the fact that Alberto Contador is favourite shows that it may well fall to one of the main yellow jersey contenders. Despite that I still think it’s a very tricky market to find the winner of and at this stage I am happy to swerve making a selection.
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Re: What's gone on at Perth & Worcester today!! The BBC do so much good stuff though so I dont have a problem with the license fee. Obviously I am not going to care for a lot of the stuff but other people will so it has its place.
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Re: paddock/parade ring
Or the other side of the story' date=' which is that paddock watchers are failed form students and have invented it to look shrewd. :D[/quote'] Or prehaps its something you know nothing about so you rubbish it. -
Re: paddock/parade ring
Generally if I go racing then I have not placed my bet already so it is a factor I consider. If I go pointing then I cant place my bet beforehand anyway so it something I always do before having a bet because I consider it a factor. Sometimes it wont help at all but other times it will. I dont get why its insane to wait until just before the race to have a bet. The majority of people will place there bet 5 mins before the race. Id have said it was insane to say you would back a horse with 3 legs but there you go. Surenaga didnt run at Sandown in April. I can only imagine in mean the Military race it won which isnt a hunter chase so I didnt watch it beforehand. I did see it win a point last season though and it was neither a negitive or a positive for me. I backed it heavily for the Horse & Hound and also backed the horse on Sunday although he clearly was not the best horse at the weights as he lost.That's the thing. You'd wait to see how the horse looks to place the bet. I would have already decided what I'm backing and would do so even if it's missing a leg. If what I'm saying it's crap, then so be it. I find it completely insane to wait 20 minutes before the race to place your bet. And when you mentioned point to points, did you watch Surenaga before his win at Sandown in April? Pundits said he looks rather unfit. I haven't seen him once in my life, but I tipped and backed him. Maybe he looks dull in coat, because his trainers are not particularly good. Did it put me off backing him in Summer National? How could it, when he was the best horse at the weights. -
Re: What's gone on at Perth & Worcester today!! It was part of the BBC lack of interest in racing sadly.
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Re: paddock/parade ring Think most of what you have put is total crap to be honest. I think its another factor to consider when making a bet. I backed Nathaniel and I wasnt concerned at all as I know thats what the horse does. Im not saying that you can find the winner of a race just by paddock watching but it has helped me on occasions when I go pointing by finding me winners and putting me rightly off horses that have had a chance on form. Its not an exact science but then nothing is in horse racing. Take Sizing Europe as a good example at Cheltenham. By all accounts he looked magnificant before the Queen Mother and I bet the way he looked persuaded a few people to back him. Form study is the most important thing but paddock watching has its place. I know a paddock watcher and its amazing how well he knows the horses and their traits. I cant believe anyone would lay Nathaniel next up because he was sweating. It would be more worrying if he didnt.
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Re: What's gone on at Perth & Worcester today!!
The BBC stopped using William Hill for their Ceefax pages back in 2007.Ceefax used to use Hillybillies for their information maybe they went to lunch -
Re: paddock/parade ring There are some people who are very knowledgeable in this area and it I think it is a part of trying to find the winner. Some horses do just naturally sweat and people will learn these traits after seeing them a few times. A coat can also tell what sort of health a horse is in and you want to be looking for a nice shiny coat. If its dull then the chances are they wont be at their best. You also want a horse to be nicely on his toes, one that looks up for it. If it gets to buzzy beforehand then they will be wasting to much energy. Like I say its a part of trying to find a winner and is more important in some races (2yo maidens) than others. Given that mileni4uk is in Bulgaria its no surprise to see that he rubbishes paddock watching as he wont have the chance to see the horses up close.
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Re: Cycling 2011/Giro D'Italia 2011 It will be interesting to see what the teams do about the intermediate sprint. Im not sure it will make too much difference but we shall see. Having looked at the route its like they dont want sprinters to win stages. Cav is 9/5 to win over 4.5 and he could do but for me there is little margin for error, but its a bet to consider. Gilbert could be interesting given he could win 2 or 3 stages and it will be interesting to see what price he is although he could be more an each-way play as Im not sure he can win.
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Re: Food at racecourses Some bookies do offer best odds on track but I guess it wouldnt be at all courses. If its a big meeting like Ascot or Cheltenham it doesnt make any sense to bet on track as not only is it hard to get a bet on the bookies offer huge prices in the morning, Fame And Glory being a prime example last week. As for the food I think its about getting value for money and Im not sure paying £8.50 for fish and chips is. However its like the motorway service station factor they can charge people those prices as people need to eat. Like I say I have hardly ever brought food at a racecourse as I dont like getting ripped of for very average food.
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Re: Gary Wiltshire on BBC today
Up to you what you believe but its a brilliant story if it is true.Her name is Milczarek' date= her nickname doesn't take a lot of working out and I'd cry bollocks to anything else. -
Re: Gary Wiltshire on BBC today
PM them and I will tell you if you are correct. Its funny how this thread started talking about the BBC coverage and has now moved to who shags who lol.Yes I think you are right he does something like a director of something, as for the name Milshake you need not go any further I think we have all worked that out! As for the other 2 stories I think I know who you mean but of course I wont say on here just in case:p -
Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season
Would be surprised mate' date=' we are going to have to sign players soon as we currently have a shadow squad but I think Kedwell might be beyond us as Don's will want a fee and we are essentially broke with a reduced wage budget. Latest rumour is Marvin Morgan joining but given that so far all rumours have led to nothing I would wait until everything is signed and sealed..[/quote'] Said in the paper they had made a bid for him but AFC turned it down but it sounds like Kedwell wants to go there.
Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season
in Championship Predictions
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Re: Npower League Two > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season I was right with the Kedwell signing for you lot as well.