Darran
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Posts posted by Darran
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Re: Cheltenham Chat To be fair you might end up picking up some cheap tickets as apart from the Friday it hasnt sold out which means the touts have to sell them cheaper than you can buy on the gate. Hope you enjoy your day whatever you decide to do.
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Re: Win Cheltenham Gold Cup Day Tickets - 2 Pairs to win - Not available to buy! Hopefully that will cheer Kev up after Luton's poor performance last night ;)
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Re: Cheltenham Chat
The normal Weekender was £2.50 but they have now put it up to £2.70 for the first time this week. This weeks issue focuses on the first two days off the Festival and having just flicked through it there is lots in there. The special Festival Weekender is £2.99 but used to be produced by the Raceform Update makers but off course the two papers merged about a year ago now. Like I say I havent seen a copy anywhere this year so I cant say if its worth getting or noti alwyas thought the WE special was around £4 i think the weekly one is the £1.70 edition, so i think the 120 page preview is the dearer one? -
Re: Ante Post Jumps Thread 2011-2012 Nicholls has said tonight that Kauto is now 70/30 to make the Gold Cup
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Re: Cheltenham Chat Got the Weekender today although not looked at it yet but was too surprised to see the price rise. I mainly get it for the point-to-point stuff, but would have got it this week anyway. Having said that they tried to charge me £4 for it in Tesco's. I havent been able to find the special Cheltenham Weekender anywhere this year and given Ive been into a few places in London looking for it I am a bit surprised not to have found it. I usually buy it, but unless I see in the next couple of days I wont be bothering this year.
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Re: Fri: 3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Nicholls has said tonight that Kauto is now 70/30 likely to run in the Gold Cup.
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 5-7 A superb second goal from Wrexham and a pretty good performance from Wrexham. Luton were rubbish hardly created anything all match and made some poor defensive mistakes for the goals.
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 5-7 Nothing to do with a bet but I thought those with non-league interest would find this interesting. It is written by the ex manager of Horsham who was told he was sacked by his gk. http://langtoncoaching.wordpress.com/2012/03/07/horsham-football-club/
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Re: Cheltenham Chat I like the Best Mate enclosure and actually think its great value for money, obviously its not as good as Tatts or Club but you get whay you pay for and not everyone can afford to pay £70 for a Club ticket. What I will say though is if you have never been its worth going to experience it all but otherwise I would be quite happy to watch it all on TV. I am only going this year because I won free tickets on here otherwise I wouldnt bother although if Kauto were to run and win next Friday I would love to be there.
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Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Here is my preview on the race. Hope it helps. Chapoturgeon This ex-festival winner is favourite with bookies at the time of writing. That win in the Jewson Novices’ Handicap three years ago was his last victory until he made a winning Hunter Chase debut at Newbury back in January. As that lack of success suggests he had lost his way but is clearly back in good heart now as he was impressive in beating Cloudy Lane by 16L. I do wonder though if that performance slightly flattered him as 2m 6f on a flat track was his ideal conditions, whereas it was always going to be on the short side for Cloudy Lane (also having his first start for over 600 days) and the other horses in behind would not have a hope were they to run in the Foxhunter. The eight-year-old qualified for the race by winning a two-runner Mens Open and that told us nothing about whether he will stay or not. Not only does he have pretty big stamina concerns, but his jumping hasn’t always been foot perfect (he fell in the 2009 Paddy Power Gold Cup) and his jockey Jack Barber is pretty inexperienced and won’t be able to claim like he did at Newbury. If he stays he has the class to win, but given his price I am more than happy to oppose him given the concerns. Salsify The leading Irish hope after winning the two big Hunter Chases in Ireland last season at Fairyhouse and Punchestown. He was beaten on his return in a point and then pulled up in a Hunter Chase at Thurles. Connections blamed the heavy ground that day and he duly bounced back to impress when winning the major Irish trial for this race at Leopardstown last month. He has a major chance for me, but was all out to win at Punchestown and there has to be a slight concern on whether he will stay the extra furlong here. He is only seven though and could last better this season and could also have more improvement in him. He is a massive danger to all. On The Fringe Has achieved so much already despite only having had seven starts. He has won at the Punchestown Festival and took the Leopardstown trial, before finishing fourth in this contest last year. He was beaten 28L by Zemsky that day though and faded pretty badly on the run in. He was off the track until coming home in third behind Salisfy at Leopardstown last month. I thought it was a reasonable return to the track, but some of his jumping left a lot to be desired and there is a theory that he might still be feeling the effects from his run on fast ground in last year’s race. He is obviously still open to a fair bit of improvement and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise, but for me there are enough doubts over him to oppose. Cloudy Lane Another former Festival winner as Donald McCain Jnr’s charge won the Kim Muir back in 2007. As I mentioned above he made a very solid reappearance in behind Chapoturgeon at Newbury which was his first start since the 2010 Grand National. I was rather surprised by that effort as 2m 6f round Newbury after such a long break was always going to be too sharp from him, but he came out with great credit. He then went up to Ayr where he easily beat solid yardstick Special Portrait despite the race not being run to suit. I actually think he will reverse Newbury form with Chapoturgeon and will back him in a match bet if there are any available on the day. In fact he appears to have more things in favour than most and all the evidence we have seen suggests he still has a decent level of ability. The problem is his price has contracted in recent days because the trainer has nominated him as his best chance of a winner at the Festival. Considering some of the horses he has that is a bold claim, but I do agree he has a massive chance. His price is about right, but he is definitely on my shortlist. My Flora Those of you who have read my Hunter Chase tips so far this season will know I have already recommended a bet on My Flora for the race. Sadly she fell two out at Newbury when she looked held by Chapoturgeon. She was fairly keen that day and was probably done for a bit of toe when coming down. Stamina looks her strong suit given her win at Stratford over 3m 4f back in May when she was hugely impressive. It’s fair to say my confidence was knocked after her Newbury fall, but it was good to see her gain a confidence boosting success at Chaddesley Corbett last month. The question mark about her is how she will act at Cheltenham, but it should be noted she gets a big turnaround in the weights with Chapoturgeon here and of course she is a guaranteed stayer. Trainer Shelia Crow knows what it takes to win this contest having trained Cappa Bleu in 2008 and for me she would still be my number one hope for the race. Monkerty Tunkerty First of all, just in case you didn’t know, this horse is named after a teddy bear one of the contestants (male) took into the Big Brother house a few years back. Anyway back to discussing the horse’s chances and if he were to win it would be a tremendous story given young Jessica Westwood owns, trains and rides the horse. He has seemingly made a fair bit of improvement this season after taking two points before hacking up at Warwick last time. The problem for me that bar Bradley (who probably still needed the run and the track wouldn’t have been ideal) the form isn’t up to much. Also making all in a small field round Warwick doesn’t take too much jockeyship, whereas trying to do the same in a big field at Cheltenham is going to be a lot harder. The fact both horse and jockey are so inexperienced (Jessica can’t claim) is a massive concern for me. I can see him running well but finishing fifth or sixth rather than winning. Roulez Cool It could be a massive hour or so for the Waley-Cohen’s given Long Run will be running the Gold Cup prior to Roulez Cool possibly lining up here. I say possibly because the horse has been described as being 50/50 for the race and we haven’t seen him for nearly two years. He was brought down in the 2010 running when he was beaten, but to be fair he probably wasn’t right and ended up winning the final one of the big three Hunter Chase’s at Stratford. I think he is good enough to win a Foxhunter, but given the long lay-off I think if he runs it will be more about a stepping stone towards targets later in the season rather than winning. Barbers Shop The Queen’s horse has the highest BHA rating of those in the race and was a pretty classy animal back in 2008/09. He made his first start since the 2010 Hennessy at Fakenham last month when he hacked up from Eleazar (didn’t handle the track), but then only just won at Fontwell to qualify for the race. The Fontwell effort told me that he still looks a non-stayer at this trip round Cheltenham and although Merry Vic is a useful horse the form is not good enough to win a Foxhunter. I would be pretty surprised if we were to have a Royal victor. Merchant Royal Hunter Chases would not be the first thing you would think of when it comes to top trainer Dermot Weld, but he has an interesting contender heading to Cheltenham this year for the Foxhunter. He has only had seven starts so is unexposed and looks to be on the upgrade. He was pulled up at Punchestown behind Salsify last season, but has won three Hunter Chases since then, including the Thurles race which Salsify pulled up in last time. Given he was all out to win that day there has to be a slight stamina doubt, but it’s hard to say how good he is and given the trainer a bold showing would not surprise. According To John The second Richard Barber trained horse in the field and this has had a great season so far, having won three point to points, having lost his way badly under rules when he was last seen in the 2010 Scottish National. He was due to have a soft-palate operation prior to this race as has been making a noise in his races this season. It will be interesting to see if that brings about any improvement because to me, although his pointing form this year is solid, it is a little below the standard required to a Foxhunter and I am happy to pass him over. Boxer Georg Second to Baby Run at Aintree last season, but apart from that hasn’t really looked up to this sort of class. He did beat Zardsky (a winner since and also entered) to win a Maiden Hunter Chase last time but I would be more interested in Willie Mullins’ runner back at Aintree than I am here. Enter Paradise It is a slight surprise to see him entered and also to see him so short in the betting. Now with Charlie Mann he won a novice chase at Fakenham last time but the race fell to pieces as neither he, nor the other main contender Like Minded, jumped well. Not only that but My Flora beat him very easily last year at Stratford and it is hard to see him reversing form. Zardsky As I said above, he was beaten by Boxer Georg before going on to better a useful enough field at Fairyhouse. He is only six and looks to be improving and I would fancy him to finish in front of Boxer Georg if he were to run, although Aintree was being touted as the favoured route and this might come too soon in his career. Rowdy Rampage The Paul Nicholls trained runner is qualified on his Irish point successes from last season and has only had one start for Nicholls when winning a handicap chase at Worcester back in August. He probably still has improvement in him but I think the fact the trainer put up Chapoturgeon as his bet of the meeting (he part owns the horse) tells you all you need to know about the chances of this. Outsiders We saw a shock in the race last year with Zemsky winning at 33-1 and to be honest it wouldn’t surprise if we had a big priced winner again this year given the wide open feel to the race. The two I think can run well at big odds are Eleazar and Bradley. I have already recommended a small each-way bet on Eleazar for the race and although he was easily beaten by Barbers Shop at Fakenham, I still think he is capable of running a massive race. The race he won at Fakenham last season was shockingly bad and the track doesn’t really suit, so I fully expect him to run much better at Cheltenham. I was impressed with his win over Dante’s Storm at Uttoxeter and for me he was a rather unlucky second to Southwestern at Stratford. The slight concern is he gets too far back in his races, but he will be staying on at the death and if they go a good gallop up front (as they usually do) he will be flying past beaten horses. Whether that will see him home in front I am not sure but I can see him hitting the frame. Bradley has very solid course form having won at the hunter chase meeting in 2010. Sadly he got injured after that and wasn’t seen again until finishing fifth behind My Flora at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. That was a promising effort as was his 2nd at Warwick to Monkerty Tunkerty where he was probably done for a bit of toe and still lacking match practice. He then went on to win the Royal Artillery at Sandown where he showed that stamina is his thing. Again maybe he won’t be quite good enough to win, but given he has proven he handles the track and stays all day there are a lot worse 33/1 shots you could back. Summary As you can see there are reasons for and against most of the runners, so for me it’s a case of backing those that have the fewest questions marks against them. My Flora has been my long term pick for the race and I still think she is progressive so I am not going to desert her. Cloudy Lane for me is the main danger as he has a lot in his favour and I think he still retains a fair bit of his old ability. In addition Eleazar and Bradley look the pick of the outsiders so hopefully the winner will come from one of those four.
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 5-7 Im with you on Luton and their attitude, but think you are being a bit harsh on Wrexham saying they have been overperforming the whole season. To be still in with a chance of the title at this stage of the season you have to have a good team and whilst I agree they have been disappointing recently and I dont think they will win the league, they deserve to be where they are in the table. As for tonight's game I am going to just watch and enjoy because I think it is very hard to call. Luton's record against teams around them is shockingly bad and Wrexham's home form is superb, but then Luton are probably playing the better at the moment. One to leave alone for me.
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 5-7 Tonight is proof why I usually leave Barrow well alone, but fair play to Bath on getting the win up there. Newport lost as well but then after playing the most of the game with 10 men again was always going to be tough. Also seeing Alfreton score 6 when they couldnt even score 1 when I needed them to on Saturday sums up the way things are going for me at the moment. Gloucester also lost 3-1 and for the third game running we had a man sent off. We are really going to struggle when our suspensions kick in as we only have a small squad.
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 5-7 It might help if Newport kept 11 men on the pitch as they are down to 10 men already!
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 5-7 I guessed it was fans I just wondered who they were thats all given I am too a fan. I think we should be pretty much full strength although Tom Hamblin didnt travel to Workington and I am not sure why and Adam Mann was on the bench on Saturday as he had a slight knock. Our striking problems wont in kick in just yet as it takes two weeks for suspensions to come into affect at this level.
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 5-7 Barrow's chances tonight have been mentioned above and I really cant see anything other than a home win. It might take a while for Barrow to break them down but they should do eventually. I am adding them to Welling in double which pays 1.2/1 with Coral. Welling have yet to lose at home this season and host a Weston Super Mare side who have gone off the boil badly off late and are letting in plenty of goals along the way. The other bet I will have tonight is Newport who have been well backed but you can still get 21/20 with Blue Square. They were the better side against Southport on Saturday despite playing a fair bit of the game with 10 men and the team continue to improve. Braintree had on the face of it a decent 1-1 draw at Grimsby, but it does sound like they were lucky to get a point despote Grimsby not playing well. A second long trip in such a short space of time isnt going to help the part-timers and I think they will struggle to get anything tonight.
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Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 5-7 Who are your Gloucester contacts? Im a Gloucester fan and I do think we should win tonight although the price isnt great value on the back of a long fruitless trip up north on Saturday. I am hoping Darren Edwards makes up for getting himself stupidly sent off tonight by scoring a goal. Droylsden did have their keeper sent off on Saturday so the result might have flattered Stortford a little in the end, but as you say they arent playing well in general at the moment. By the way BetVictor are now 21/20 about a home win.
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Re: Cheltenham Chat Seems strange Cheltenham is a week away and I was racing in the snow this afternoon!
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Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 3 Was just following the Bath and Luton twitter feeds and it sounded like one way traffic. Fleetwood was denied a third as well by the keeper I see as well.
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Yet more reason why I hate luton lol. Sounds like they could have been 3 up in the first half. Sums up a very disappointing day for me. Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum
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Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 3 Sorry that is my mistake it should have read by at least 3 goals of course which is -2. It was 11/5 at the time of writing and I have placed the bet at 11/5 so I can only guess the price has gone if it is now 7/4. Have a look around it might be bigger elsewhere still. I know Sportingbet were bigger but given they now are charging £1 everytime you deposit money into your account unless they are massively bigger I am not going to use them as that is a disgraceful charge.
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Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet North & South Mar 3 Histon v Altrincham Although they were involved in a dull goalless draw against Colwyn Bay last week I am still happy to back Histon again. I think the way Bay play didn’t suit Histon and thus it became a bit of a stalemate, whereas Altrincham should let them play a bit more. The other point worth making is that Altrincham’s away form, bar a couple of exceptions, has been pretty poor and they were defeated 1-0 down the road at Bishop’s Stortford last weekend. Hopefully another trip down south will prove pointless for them and if Altrincham put in their normal away performance then Histon will win this and BetVictor go 7/5 about them doing so. Nuneaton v Corby Corby were winners for us last week when I pointed out how much better their away form was compared to their home efforts. They beat Hinckley pretty easily in the end and although Nuneaton will prove much tougher opposition I am prepared to risk them at bet365’s offer of 100/30. Corby’s only away defeat this season came back in August against Gainsborough and they seem to be so much more solid defensively away from home as they have only conceded 10 goals compared to 28 at home. Nuneaton have had a strange season as they haven’t always impressed on the pitch, however after four straight wins they find themselves in second place as the other play-off hopefuls continue to drop points. They are undefeated in seven in total but various teams have managed those sorts of runs in the Blue Square North and then gone on a poor run when you least expect it, something Nuneaton have done themselves. Given their away performances I do think Corby are overpriced and worth an interest. Weekend Double I am going to do a double in the Blue Square South this weekend with Eastleigh and Dartford paying 2.7/1 with BetVictor. Eastleigh were the Naps last week and beat Truro 3-1 in the end. As I mentioned then, their home form is their strength and although Farnborough have won their last four games they have had a pretty kind fixture list. They also haven’t been impressive in winning and this is a very tough tie for them with Eastleigh so strong at home. Tonbridge Angels are no mugs and have had a decent first season at this level but Dartford are pretty much unstoppable at the moment. I watched them against Woking the week before that and they made the league leaders look very average. Indeed if they could have taken their chances they would have won the game. That has been their only defeat in the league recently and I would back them to beat anyone in the division at the moment.
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Re: England > Weekend > BlueSQ Bet Prem Mar 3 Alfreton v AFC Telford This is a bit of a relegation six-pointer between the two sides promoted from the Blue Square North last season, I am however firmly with the home side. Alfreton may have had four defeats in their last six, but those came against teams either going for the title (Fleetwood and Luton) or chasing the play-offs (Kidderminster and Grimsby). They have also managed to beat Darlington and Bath in this period so that proves to me they are still more than capable of bettering the teams in and around them. They have looked an improving side for a while now and I do think they will do enough to survive another year in the Blue Square Premier. I am not sure about AFC Telford however who have only managed one away win all season. They have really struggled and have been slightly fortunate to pick up points of late, especially when getting a draw against Lincoln last week as Lincoln were all over them in the second half. I like the chances of Alfreton gaining three points here and going to within one point of their opponents. Blue Square and Coral are best at odds of 13/10. Luton v Bath It really does look like Bath have a massive task to avoid relegation this season. They have only won three times in the league all term and are winless away from home. They have scored just eleven, whilst conceding 37 on their travels and that for me sums up their problems. Performances haven’t been too bad but they haven’t been able to take their chances and are prone to serious defensive mistakes leading to goals. With that in mind I think Luton could score a few here. Given the quality that Luton have in their side I fully expect them to punish Bath’s defensive problems and that makes backing them on the handicap to win by at least two goals appealing, with Coral offering odds of 11/5.
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Re: KAUTO STAR 50/50 FOR CHELTENHAM Im sure plenty of horses fall in schooling that we never get to hear about and Im sure the reason why Nicholls waited was to see how badly injured the horse was. The issue I have is that he came out on Saturday saying the horse had schooled well (which was rubbish) and at the press lunch for the Festival on Wednesday he also said Kauto was in great form which again was utter rubbish as it turned out 24 hours later. Why say those things if they arent true? From a betting point of view I wouldnt have thought many people would have backed him in the last five days and off course those who have backed Long Run will have got a great price.
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Re: Fri: 4.00 Christies Foxhunter Chase Salisfy should be fav in my view as he has the best form in the race, however stamina has to be a concern given how he was stopping when he won at Punchestown last season. They are also not certain about bringing him over so you would want to back him NRNB. Also I would be very careful at using the fact hes beaten horses who have had decent form from years ago as to me its meaningless that Footy Facts has beaten Hardy Eustace. Im more interested in what they are doing now that is much more important.
Cheltenham Chat
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Cheltenham Chat Not what I found a few years back when I got one from a tout which was cheaper than the price on the door. Given there are so many touts looking for business I am sure you can haggle them down to a price below that on the door and if they dont then dont buy it from them.