fishy25
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Re: US Open 2012 Live Score Thread Flipping hell that Ferrer tie break had me sweating. :lol Everything looked to be going against the Spaniard and though Sijsling would take it and kill the unders. Thankfully not. :notworthy
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Re: US Open 2012 Nothing really stood out yesterday which wasn't such a bad thing as it allowed me a day off after the shocker that was Wednessday. Hopefully tonight will bring some betteer results and this is sort of the first big day for me in the tournament given the amount I'm taking on. You'll see... :lol Jarkko Nieminen vs John Isner- Tie Break in Match- 8/11 Coral- (5/10) I'll kick off with one of my breaker bets and whenever big John plays, there's always a decent chance of one occuring. He's at times unreturnable on serve as we all know, but on return, he leaves a lot to be desired. At times, because of his huge serve, you get the feeling he's not completely interested on return as more often that not, against guys of the quality of Nieminen, he will win those tie breaks. Generally speaking though, he's not the best on return and with Nieminen's lefty serve, you'd fancy him to keep a couple of sets close despite his poor form. In all 3 of the matches the two have played against each other in the past, there's been at least one tie break in each match with 3 occuring when they met at Flushing Meadows a few years back now and I'd be pretty surprised if we didn't see at least one happening today. Steve Darcis vs Stanislas Wawrinka- Over 35.5 games- 4/5 Stan James- (5/10) Took the overs in Stan's first match and happy to do so again today. All the same applies really and usually no matter who he's playing, his games tend to drag on a bit. Whenever you think he's getting a foot hold, he will suddenly go missing for 10 minutes or so which gives his opponent chances. Darcis is in pretty decent form of late as well with his run over in Winston-Salem and should to prove sterm resistance for Wawrinka. Both games the two have played have gone the distance, including a 5 setter in the Davis Cup and with Stan's history, I'd be surprised if we didn't see at least 4 sets here which should cover the overs. Dennis Novikov (+9.5 games) to beat Julien Benneteau- 10/11 Stan James- (5/10) Novikov looks to be underrated here quite frankly. Atko has already spoken about big things are expected of this boy and his first round result against Jerzy Janowicz is really impressive for the youngster. Granted he hasn't played a great deal of tennis at this level, but that result shows that he wasn't struggling with nerves and just how much quality he has at such a young age. Benneteau is certainly no world beater either whilst his recent form has been pretty poor really since pushing Federer in SW19. Bradley Klahn (+8.5 games) to beat Richard Gasquet- 4/5 Stan James- (4/10) I really wasn't particularly impressed by Gasquet against Montanes. He will win here, but against the Spaniard, he started slopperly and was making a ton of errors in a game he should really have dominated from ball one. The home boy Klahn has shown what he can do and he'll be playing off the home crowd. Gasquet doesn't usually demolish guys too often and with the first round performances of both, I'm happy to back the American here. Steve Johnson (+5.5 games) to beat Ernests Gulbis- 4/5 Bodog- (4/10) I'm with Czech again here as traditionally when Gulbis pulls off a thrilling win, he so often follows it up with a not so good one. In truth he's lucky to still be here as Haas missed a shed load of break points in the first round as well as letting a 2 set lead slip. Johnson won pretty comfortably in the end against Rajeev Ram and there's enough to suggest he'll be competitive here. Home support, good on serve and Gulbis' erratic nature should see him cover the handicap. Igor Sijsling vs David Ferrer- Under 30.5 games- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) I know Ferrer's form has dipped recently but he did enough against Anderson in the first round for me to back him today. I sort of get the feeling with Ferrer that once he gets a couple of wins under his belt, his confidence will be restored again and we'll see a return to form. Once he was ahead against Anderson, he started to relax and ultimately play better. It's going to be a tough ask for Sijsling here given the amount of balls Ferrer is going to return. He's already been on the wrong end of a drubbing from the Spaniard this year on grass, so on a slightly slower surface, I fear for him here. Brian Baker (+5.5 games) to beat Janko Tipsarevic- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Lleyton Hewitt (-2.5 games) to beat Gilles Muller- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) I know the Aussie isn't the player he once was but this is a pretty good draw for him in my eyes. He's a pretty good returner whilst he's still decent off the deck and he was always pretty comfortable in the first round really whilst he should have plenty still left in the tank for this one. Muller is probably the most fortunate player in the draw still given just how much he was being outplayed by Youhzny in the previous round. His form hasn't been great for a while now so that comeback would have been a bonus for him. I think this is the end of the road for him here though, with Hewitt far more consistent in the rallies and Muller not serving as well as he needs to if he is to keep things competitive here. Leonardo Mayer vs Tommy Robredo- Over 38.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) This looks to have epic written all over it to me. A few years back you'd say Robredo will be winning this comfortably but with all of the injuries he's had over the past couple of years, you wouldn't rule out a Mayer win here. Both are traditionally clay court specialists if you like and in that I find, comes a lot of long and gruelling battles. I was extremely surprised to see Robredo beat Seppi so easily but from looking at the score line, you'd probably say Seppi was a no show really. Mayer won narrowly and should be a much stiffer test for the Spaniard. He's generally pretty solid on serve which should give him plenty of cheap points, especially with Robredo still finding his way back and I expect a pretty long one here in truth. Na Li vs Laura Robson- Over 18.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Prefer the overs here as opposed to the Robson handicap as she is still capable of throwing in a rotten set from time to time. On the face of it though, this line looks a little low. Robson will be extremely confident after her win over Clijsters and she's shown in the past that she can mix it up with the big guns in the WTA. Li had a few problems against Dellacqua actually which she shouldn't have and if Robson plays aggressively like she did against the Belgian,she should keep things close here with one tight set almost covering the line alone. Anna Tatishvilli (-4.5 games) to beat Mandy Minella- 7/8 Bodog- (4/10) Marion Bartoli (-4.5 games) to beat Kristina Mladenovic- 4/5 Stan James- (4/10) Never the biggest fan of backing Bartoli with handicaps bit I'll try my luck here. In all honesty she shouldn't have too many problems here. Mladenovic like I wrote when I backed Pavlyuchenkova in the previous round, isn't any better than challenger level still really and she was just fortunate that Pav played like utter horse crap. Hopefully Bartoli won't as if both play to their mean, Bartoli is a good few levels better with the power she can generate off both sides and hopefully that will be enough today like it should.
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Re: US Open 2012 Utter rubbish from me tonight, complete car crash of a day. Lost count to how many break points Del Potro and Haas missed whilst Gasquet had chances as well despite a shocking start. Pav summed up the day really and that's a prime example to why it pays off to take the unders rather than the handicap sometimes. A poor night takes me all the way down to -4.82 for the tournament. :wall Only slight positive are the 5 outright players are all through so that's something but definitely need to make up for the results tomorrow night.
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Re: US Open 2012 Few for me tonight as well. Atko has covered some of them which is a good job seeing as I'm shattered again so not going to do huge write-ups again. Juan Martin Del Potro vs Florent Serra- Under 28.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Always a slight risk taking the overs but in truth, Del Potro shouldn't be dropping a set to Serra. The Frenchman is extremely fortunate to be in the first round as he's got in as a lucky loser so he'll be delighted just to be here I reckon. He's no better than challenger level is Serra and despite winning a few first round matches in tournaments this year, when up against the better players, he's really got nothing at his disposal to trouble them. Del Potro's been playing decent of late and returning to arguably his favourite destination, he shouldn't be having too many problems in getting the job done here. Richard Gasquet (-8.5 games) to beat Albert Montanes- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) Handicap looks a little low to me really in this one. Gasquet is another guy who will be delighted with his draw given Montanes' injury problems over the past couple of years or so and these days, the Spaniard doesn't really explore any further than his beloved clay. On the clay he's done okay but the level of opponents he's beaten really isn't that great. On a quicker surface against a far better opponent than he's been mixing with I do fear for him. Gasquet has won all 5 matches the two have played in the past which have all been on clay actually, so on a hard court it should be fairly routine for Gasquet. Tommy Haas (-4.5 games) to beat Ernests Gulbis- 4/5 Stan James- (4/10) Handicap is a touch lower than most places have it and it's as much against Gulbis as it is favouring Haas. To be fair, the German has been playing extremely well of late. Taking a set of Djokovic and almost winning over in Washington and you'd have to say Haas is somewhere back to his best now. Gulbis' ranking is a joke really considering just how good he is, but as always the case with him, he's a complete nutcase and likely to implode at any point. Talent wise he's top 20 you'd have to say but his mental state is fragile, and well terrible for a guy on the tour really. He's capable of playing some blistering stuff like we saw against Berdych earlier in the year but that very rarely happens these days. Atko made a good point about an outside smaller court really doesn't favour Gulbis as generally he will play his best stuff on the big stage so Haas will just go about his business and should get the job done here comfortably in the end. The handicap allows for a dropped set as well but in the end I expect the German to win with a bit to spare. Couple for the women as well... Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-5.5 games) to beat Kristina Mladenovic- 10/11 Stan James- (4/10) Actually went against the Russian in her opening match against Hantuchova but think she'll be okay today. Mladenovic isn't really experienced enough yet on the bigger stage and is still learning her trade on the challenger tour. She's still losing to girls ranked way outside the top 100, and comfortable losses at that. Pav's form has improved a fair bit and overcoming Hantuchova who was a potentially tricky opponent in the first round will give her confidence. She's beaten the likes of Wozniacki and Goerges recently whilst running Kvitova close as well and if she continues to play somewhere around that level, she'll have far too much for Mladenovic today. Anna Tatishvilli vs Sorana Cirstea- Over 20.5 games- 9/10 BetVictor- (3/10) Was close to backing Tatishvilli in some capacity but in the end I've plumped for the overs as the line looks a couple of games light to me. Both girls won pretty comfortably in the first round, Tatishvilli moreso but Cirstea did well to come back and beat Lisicki. Both girls have been in decent form lately and I honestly don't see a great deal of difference between them and the H2H supports that. Both matches the two have played against one another have gone the distance with one win a piece which shows there hasn't been much, if anything between them and with the line this low, it would only require a couple of tight sets to cover it whilst 3 sets definitely will so happy to take the overs here.
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Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Some cracking calls over the past couple of weeks or so mate. Bit unlucky not to be on a higher figure than you are in truth but you've got the semis and final to build on that. :ok On a personal note now I'm back from holiday, heading into the 2 semis I'm sitting on +15.88 with Lancashire still left in the tournament but I'm not counting my chickens with them especially considering what happened to Sussex at the weekend. Hopefully the same won't happen with them as they've been playing some decent stuff.
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Re: US Open 2012 Looks like a much better day yesterday for most and Jovanovski fighting back from a set down was really pleasing. That puts me up to +8.48 for the tournament now with Almagro, Roddick and Dolgopolov making it through yesterday to keep the outrights going as well. Some really good calls from Czech and Atko, top stuff guys. :clap
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Re: US Open 2012 Few more for me now I've had a closer look at the games at homes. Really shattered from work so doing really brief write-ups so apologizes in advance for that. Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Stanislas Wawrinka- Over 36.5 games- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) Always try and look to take the overs in Wawrinka's early matches in slam as there's something about him which means he rarely closes things out in a straight forward fashion. Both of his opening matches in SW19 and Paris went the distance whilst 12 months ago at Flushing Meadows, Maximo Gonzalez took the opening set so there is always that mental question over Wawrinka. Stakhovsky's been in decent form of late as well, winning a few matches on the hard courts and will traditionally raise his game for the big occasion. He's solid and effective without doing anything spectacular so I'd expect at least 4 sets in this one really. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Jesse Levine- Tie Break in Match- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Trying my hand with a couple of tie breakers as well and the first of those comes in this one. Dolgopolov is one of the most natural raw talents on the tour, but a bit like Wawrinka really, his mental state is fragile whilst his consistency is well, dubious. He's returned to a bit of form of late but he does seem to relish the longer matches in the slams so there's every chance of a breaker coming at some point during this one. Levine is a decent player, very good on serve though with the angles he gets being a lefty so he should keep a couple of sets close and in that hopefully a breaker. Marcos Baghdatis vs Matthias Bachinger- Tie Break in Match- 10/11 Bet365- (3/10) Think this one may contain a breaker at some point as well. Baggy is returning from a back problem so he'll be feeling his way back in early on whilst Bachinger, despite not doing much of late, is a big chap with an almighty powerful serve which usually results in a tie break or two in his matches. In two of the three matches that the two have played there's been a tie break including in the game earlier this year so I'd have the odds just a touch skinnier than we're getting here. One for the ladies as well... Bethanie Mattek-Sands (+6.5 games) to beat Venus Williams- 9/10 BetVictor- (4/10) The handicap looks a touch high to me here as well given the style of both girls. I know Mattek-Sands doesn't play a great deal any more really but it's very rare to see her get blown off the court really. Already this year on the big stage, she's beaten Lisicki at the French and took Radwanska to 3 sets in Australia so she's certainly one for the big games, especially in front of her home crowd. She pushed Errani close last week as well which is no easy thing to do right now which should give her confidence coming into this one. I do really like Venus, probably my favourite of the two sisters but she's not the player she once was and even though she's playing some good stuff right now and picked up some tidy wins, there's always that question over her health and if Mattek-Sands can hit the ball well today like she usually does, Williams' movement isn't the best which should mean Mattek-Sands can push her a touch here. She covered this handicap a couple of years back at Flushing Meadows when Venus was in a better place than she is now so nothing really to suggest she won't do the same today.
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Re: US Open 2012 I'm with the rest on Giraldo really and will probably have a few more later when I get home. Can't really say too much that hasn't been said really. Santiago Giraldo (+7.5 games) to beat Milos Raonic- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Big serve for Raonic but I'm still not entirely convinced by his all round game. At times he is a bit like Isner in the sense that he won't be too interested on return. Giraldo is no mug either on the hard courts and he'll be able to hold his own for the majority. Raonic would need to win ultra comfortably to cover the handicap and he doesn't often do that against the decent opponents so backing Giraldo to do enough here.
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Re: US Open 2012 Pretty tricky opening day really and Fish throwing away breaks in both of the first 2 sets didn't help. I'll sort the P/L out when I'm back from work later but from a quick glance, again not alot stands out. I have taken one early bet and I'll probably take some more later on. Bojana Jovanovski to beat Mona Barthel- 3/1 Bet365- (2/10) Bojana Jovanovski (+4.5 games) to beat Mona Barthel- Evens Bodog- (4/10) Not quite sure where these odds have come from really. Jovanovski put a little run together last week over in Dallas which should give her confidence ahead of this week and she's certainly got the game to trouble Barthel. The young Serb possesses a lot of power on her groundstrokes and when she's playing well, she can give most girls on the tour a game so hopefully last week's efforts will help her go well today. There's been a bit of controversy surrounding Mona Barthel this week with some interesting results to say the least. I'm not going to go into that but her form is extremely patchy of late and she was forced to withdraw from the tournament in New Haven last week due to illness so she may not be 100% coming into this one anyway so for those reasons I wouldn't be having her at such a short price. They've met twice in the past and Jovanovski has pushed Barthel in both matches and took the opening set in Dubai earlier this year before narrowly losing out which shows she has the game to push Barthel and with the inconsistency that surrounds the German, I'll back Jovanovski to go well today.
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Re: US Open 2012 Does look an unusual sort of opening day for a slam as there's not much that appeals to me either. Having said that, I am taking a few including a couple on the women's side which have been rotten for me so far this year. Will start with the men first though... Mardy Fish vs Go Soeda- Under 30.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) The American shouldn't have too many problems in this one in front of his home crowd. Over on the US swing is where he plays his best stuff and picks up a shed load of points and already he has made a couple of quarter finals and a semi to go with that so I imagine all of his injury and fitness problems are behind him now given he's put a few runs together. His Japanese opponent hasn't played a great deal in recent weeks and he hasn't really got the weapons to trouble Fish a great deal. Fish is far better on serve, whilst from the baseline he'll dominate as well with the extra power he possesses. Soeda fares well against the lesser players if you like but rarely troubles the big boys and with a simple break per set required, Fish should be good enough to cover the unders here. Denis Istomin (-5.5 games) to beat Jurgen Zopp- 4/5 Bodog- (3/10) Yeah reluctantly I'll side with Atko here. ;):lol Neither guy's form is anything to shout about but Istomin is the better player with far more to his game than the Estonian. Big serve, strong forehand and he'll look to dominate the majority of points which Zopp won't be entirely comfortable with as he won't have dealt with someone like Istomin too often. He fights for everything he gets really Zopp as he makes his way through qualification for most events which isn't easy so you have to give credit to him for that. Pretty heavy defeats to Cipolla and Anderson in recent weeks isn't ideal preparation though whilst Jack Sock beat him last week in a match which you'd expect Zopp to fare a little better in really. Istomin hasn't been playing particularly well lately either but he did beat Benneteau in Cincinnati and he'll know he's got a good chance of putting a little run together this week. He beat Zopp in straight sets in their only meeting thus far last year and even if he drops a set today, the handicap can still be covered. Marinko Matosevic (+7.5 games) to beat Marin Cilic- 10/11 Bet365- (3/10) Think this line looks a bit high to me given the nature of both players involved. Cilic should prevail but very rarely does he blow his opponent off court and I'd expect he Aussie to be pretty competitive here. Cilic has been in really good form to be fair to him, but over in Cincinnati, Stakhovsky, Levine and Andujar were all competitive against the Croatian and traditionally in the slams, Cilic takes a little time to settle down which should allow Matosevic chances. The Aussie is good on serve which should give him some cheap points and his game has come on leaps and bounds in the past 12-18 months. He's no longer fazed by the big occasions and is mentally very strong which should see him fully up for this one. Cilic is also still a little suspect on serve for me in the early rounds of tournaments and if Matosevic can force a tie break here which is entirely possible, he'll have every chance of keeping Cilic close here. A couple for the women as well then... Aleksandra Wozniak (-6.5 games) to beat Alexandra Cadantu- 7/8 Bodog- (4/10) On the face of it, this handicap may seem a pretty hefty one for the Canadian to cover but under closer inspection, she should win this match with plenty to spare. She's been in decent form of late, beating the likes of Jankovic, Hantuchova and McHale all in straight sets and already this year, she's pushed Radwanska and Venus Williams to 3 sets so she's had a pretty good year really. Her Romanian counterpart doesn't play a great deal of tennis away from the clay really and that's understandable really if you look at her 3 grass court matches this season where she failed to win more than 3 games in any set. She did make a hard court final in Monterrey earlier this year but it must be said that the quality of players over in Mexico that week was extremely tame at best. Other than that week, she's not won a match away from the clay all year so you just feel she's not here for much else than the prize money. Wozniak is the far more competent player on the quicker surfaces and she even managed to bagel Cadantu in 2 of the 3 sets in their only meeting this year and that was on clay so on a quicker harder surface, I don't envisage the Canadian to have many problems in winning this one. Daniela Hantuchova to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova- 2/1 Bet365- (3/10) Not sure I'd have Hantuchova's price quite this high considering what I've been reading and hearing about the Russian. Apparently she has been struggling with a spine injury which although I'm no doctor, I can't imagine she's practiced a great deal, nor can I imagine she's 100% coming into this one. Her form has improved after a shocking start to the season but she is still throwing in a couple of naff performances here and there. The likes of Lepchenko and Rybarikova have beat her comfortably in recent weeks and despite beating Wozniacki over in Cincinnati, this injury that has come into force may well have stopped any momentum she would have liked to bring into Flushing Meadows. Hantuchova has struggled with a few niggles as well this year and her form is hardly anything to set the pulses raising but if Pav is struggling, Hantuchova is still good enough to take advantage of that. She's got some points to gain this week as well given her first round defeat 12 months ago and with the price available, I think she's worth a punt.
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Re: US Open 2012
:lol:lol Bogomolov won't beat Murray. Literally don't bother with that bet. Think Murray has a decent shot if he can stay focussed after his little break given the way he dismantled Federer. But don't bother with the Junior. I'd want around 500/1 and even then I probably still wouldn't bother.no way men. i 'm asking me question how Federer did play in final OG. i've seen some shots of Federer that are in reach of Murray and not across the lines, like he used to do. another question mark that i have is :wasn't this a compensation for his lost at Wimbledon and the fact that he was playing for his homecrowd. with this odd ,i rather go for Bogomolov Jr.in first round @25/1 with unibet 2/10 -
Re: US Open 2012 Time for my first involvment in the tennis for a while after the summer holiday break and hoping for another good slam. Traditionally the US is where I flop beyond belief but there's a first time for everything and hopefully this year will be a bit different. From what I remember, it's been a really good year in the tennis threads in the 3 slams so far this year so here's hoping for a clean sweep. :ok A few outrights for me, all regarding the same market which is one I usually get completely wrong but that's not putting me off. :lol Probably have some match bets later on but just these to kick off. John Isner to reach the last 16- 5/4 Sportingbet- (4/10) Richard Gasquet to reach the last 16- Evens Sportingbet- (4/10) Nicolas Almagro to reach the last 16- 13/8 Sportingbet- (3/10) Andy Roddick to reach the last 16- 5/4 Sportingbet- (3/10) Alexandr Dolgopolov to reach the last 16- 15/8 Sportingbet- (3/10) Right, I may as well cover all of these guys in one post given it's the same bet for each guy and I've tried to look for the value really. First off we have big John Isner and Ricky Gasquet who have warranted a slighter larger stake in my eyes. If we look at the American first, his confidence will be sky high right now after beating Berdych yesterday in the final over in Winston-Salem and he'll be fearing nobody in his home tournament with the crowd behind him. He started a little slowly last week, dropping his opening set to Klizan but after that he beat the likes of Melzer and Goffin comfortably and then held his nerve to edge Tsonga and Berdych out which will have done his confidence the world of good coming into the next couple of weeks. Of course there may be an argument that fatigue might creep into his game after the huge effort of this week, but if that does happen, it won't come until the second week and with him needing only 3 wins to reach the last 16, it shouldn't be a problem. His route to that last 16 looks something like Malisse-Nieminen-Kohlschreiber and all 3 guys Isner has beaten in their most recent match, 2 of which came this year. Malisse and Kohlschreiber look the main threats but Malisse doesn't look in the best place right now with him being bagelled last week against Darcis, whilst the German has always pushed Isner without success. With the confidence the big man will take from his title last week, I think he'll use that to his advantage and make the last 16 at the very least. Gasquet's draw looks even easier tbh and that's the only reason I'd consider backing him as he still is too inconsistent for my liking. Saying that, he shouldn't have too many problems in beating Montanes-Melzer-Haas. He bounced back well from the disappointment of the Olympics by reaching the final in Toronto and he'll know he can gain a few points this week after only reaching the second round last year. His opening few opponents are pretty favourable to the Frenchman and against each one, he'll be a heavy favourite so the odds against look decent to me for Gasquet. Next we have Andy Roddick and despite not being the player he once was, presumably this will be his last slam over in the US and he'll want to go out with a decent showing. The crowd will be rooting him on more than ever as they will know it's the last slam for Andy and he'll be so pumped to win a few matches. He won't have any problems with Rhyne Williams in the first round and then I'm not sure how well Tomic will cope with the crowd to be honest as too often when I see him, his concentration is still affected badly by the tiny things and despite winning a couple of matches over in Cincinnati, his form coming into that week was shocking in truth so he'll be there for the taking for Roddick providing he serves well. After that maybe Monaco, but maybe not in truth. I've been reading stuff that the Argentine has been struggling with a foot niggle so there's no guarantees over him and even if he was to face Roddick, on a hard court, despite Roddick's decline and bad form, I'd still have him a decent favourite and with this being his last hurrah, I'll back him to go out on at least a semi-high. The final 2 guys involved are one from Spain and one from Ukraine. (I won't make this entire paragraph rhyme, I don't have the time) Both look decent value shots to me considering the talent they possess and their potential draws. First we'll deal with the pony-tailed Dolgopolov who has finally shown glimpses that he's returning to form after a pretty lean start to the season. He won over in Washington a few weeks back though and then pushed Querrey hard last week so he's had a decent preparation for Flushing Meadows. I actually think his draw suits him a bit with the guys he'll be facing. Providing he actually turns up, he'll beat Jesse Levine whilst Baghdatis who he may face in the round after has been struggling with his back which puts me off his chances. The highest seeded player he may face could be Wawrinka but as we all know, the consistency of Wawrinka is a mystery certainly to me and there are no guarantees he'll even beat Stakhovsky in the first round to be honest. Even so, the man from Ukraine won their only previous meeting on clay so he can clearly beat Stan, and he won't be as high as this price suggests so you can always lay him off. I think he's got a decent shot of making the last 16 at least though and with him not doing much in the slams so far this season, this could be the one he really shows us what he can do. Last of all, we have a Spaniard in the form of Almagro and I don't know why his price is this high to be honest. He's not played over on the hard courts in the US yet but that shouldn't be a problem and his first match against Radek Stepanek should settle him down and let him adapt as he should come through that one with Stepanek more focussed on doubles these days. Mahut and Petzschner's form who are potential opponents for Almagro is poor and then he dominates the H2H over Florian Mayer 4-1 so I'd make him favourite against the German should both guys face eachother. The price is really appealing to me with the way Almagro has played at times this year and his temperament looks to have improved a bit in recent times and he's got a bigger shot of reaching the last 16 than these odds suggest.
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Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Really poor finals day for me in truth and that was underlined by the total runs for the day falling just 2 short. Thankfully the tournament before today has been a pretty decent one for me and Steven Croft was 4th in the run charts for the tournament so that brings a tidy return in the only bright thing to come from me today really. Overall then with all the outrights settled, I finish on +42.57pts which if given at the start of the tournament, I would have taken. Some really good shouts throughout and Kev's shout on Miller today topped off a really profitable competition for us on the whole I think. Enjoy those winnings mate. ;):clap
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Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Sussex were really poor there unfortunately. Yorkshire look a tasty price for Kev though so fingers crossed in the final whoever they play. I've taken a couple for the second semi but not going mad at all really. Somerset (Most 6's) vs Hampshire- Evens BetVictor- (4/10) Not a great deal I can add to what's been said. In Levi, Kieswetter, Trescothick, Trego, Hildreth, Morkel and Buttler, you have 5 or 6 genuine 6 hitters and that's excluding O'Brien as well who can whack a long ball. Compton isn't playing today and that's not such a bad thing for this bet as he's the only real stroke maker you'd say in the side so he'll be replaced by a guy who will look to hit boundaries you'd imagine. Hampshire have a couple of guys in Mascarenhas, Ervine and Vince who can clear the rope but a couple of those guys come in down the order and they will be hoping that McKenzie will be shepherding the innings and through that comes the lower risk of 6's occurring. Glenn Maxwell isn't around today who has been superb this season and attacking the bowlers and all in all, looking at the 2 sides, I fancy Somerset to win the 6's match. Marcus Trescothick (-1.5 runs) to beat Simon Katich- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Fancy the Somerset skipper in this battle really. I presume it will be the same role for him as against Essex in the quarter final which will see him bat at 3, but with Levi and Kieswetter before him, there's every chance he'll be in early on given the attacking nature of the 2 above him. He's missed a ton of cricket this season and he'll certainly be looking to make amends. Not only has he missed plenty of cricket this summer, but he knows more than anyone else of the disappointment Somerset have gone through in the history of finals day and he's sure to be pumped for this one today. He comes into today after a century in his most recent innings as well. I can't help but feel this format doesn't entirely suit Simon Katich really. He is undoubtedly a class player but the hectic manner of T20, and the pressure to score your runs quickly I feel goes against everything Katich is about. He's been in really poor form of late recently for a guy of his quality and was out for a duck in the recent one day game against today's opponent. Just think this handicap is too low really and given just how explosive the Somerset skipper is in one day cricket, I fancy him to cover the handicap here.
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Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Decided against taking anything in the first semi just so I can see how the pitch is playing and what not so hopefully Sussex can win through to the final for my own sake.
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Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Been away for a little while on holiday and stuff but back for finals day so and hoping the rain stays away on what is the best day in the cricket calendar. Currently sitting on +41.07 as well as being on Sussex to take the trophy at 11/1 today and Luke Wright still has a slim chance of topping the run charts. At worst, he should get an each way return. Like Kev, I'm taking a few finals day bets on where I've tried to look for the value really. I'll post those up now then move onto the matches themselves in another post. Scott Styris Top Finals Day Batsman- 40/1 Bodog- (1/10 E/W) 1/5 1-3 Jos Buttler Top Finals Day Batsman- 20/1 Bodog- (1/10 E/W) 1/5 1-3 Gary Ballance Top Finals Day Batsman- 66/1 Bodog- (1/10 E/W) 1/5 1-3 Granted it might happen that only one of these guys is going to get the chance to play 2 matches but I'm happy to take the risk at these prices. I'll start with the two men from overseas and just quite how Scott Styris and Gary Ballance have warranted such high prices is beyond me. They may not be batting at 1,2 or 3, but I'd be hugely surprised if they didn't get a decent amount of overs at the crease and that's all these guys need really to fill their boots. There's always the chance that either guy could be bumped up the order if their side is falling behind the rate as well but in their own right in the middle order, they are two highly class batsman. In terms of what they've done so far in the competition, they've scored around the same amount of runs but we all saw just what Scott Styris can do against Gloucestershire in the quarter finals where he smashed an unbeaten century off about 10 balls :lol He plays T20 cricket around the world now and he is so experienced and such a familiar face to finals day that he could well go well today and show us again just how good he is. Gary Ballance hasn't had the best of T20 seasons but in saying that, it hasn't been a bad one for him either. An average of over 30 isn't bad whatsoever in this format and considering at times he wouldn't have had much time at the crease I think it's a pretty good return. In the CB40 competition though, he's been consistently Yorkshire's best batsman and on a few occasions he's really impressed in front of the Sky cameras. Jonny Bairstow has been released to play today but I'm going to back Ballance to overshadow the England man, and if Yorkshire beat Sussex, I think Ballance has got a decent short at scoring plenty of runs today. My last pick is Jos Buttler and any regular cricket watchers will know just how good this boy is. He'll be looking to impress ahead of the International T20s and the World T20 and whenever I see him, he just continues to impress me. He'll hit anywhere around the wicket and with the aggressive nature of those above him, there's every chance he will be at the crease early doors, especially considering Somerset's dreadful finals day record. He has every shot in the book and can adjust his game to every situation and whilst the focus may be on Levi, Trescothick and Kieswetter before him, I think Butter is good value to go better than the before mentioned players. Will Beer Top Finals Day Bowler- 22/1 Bodog- (1/10) Liam Dawson Top Finals Day Bowler- 12/1 Bodog- (1/10) Like Kev, I too think spinners are the way to go here. The price that Kev has got on Dawson looks huge though considering I could only get 12/1 on him but I do think he's got a pretty good shot of delivering today. I think spinners will be key today on this wicket as they usually are in T20 but today especially considering the lack of help for the pace men yesterday early doors. Dawson opens the bowling for Hampshire and that will give him a good shot of taking early wickets as the batsman look to make the most of the powerplay. Especially against Somerset where the likes of Levi and Kieswetter will try to bash everything out of the park, Dawson may be able to nick a couple of early ones today and with the way he's bowled recently, I'll back him to go well today. Will Beer is another guy I like to go well today in what I think is a day that Sussex will go well. Beer has really proven himself to be a force in one day cricket, so much so that he keeps Panesar well out of contention in this format. He is generally pretty tough to get away for too many and that forces batsman to really try and do something different which usually gets them a bit unstuck really. Michael Yardy will open the attack for his side which maybe explains why Yardy's price is shorter than Beer but in my eyes, Will Beer is a class act with the ball and he's a good price to top the wicket table come tonight. Total Finals Day Runs Over 850.5- 5/6 Bodog- (2/10) I'm being extremely cautious with this bet as at some point, there's every chance of some interruptions which isn't great for this kind of bet. The good thing with this market is that if any of the matches are reduced, this bet is immediately voided which has tempted me into taking it. When you look at the face of it though, we're actually looking at an average of about 142 in every innings which in T20 with this kind of batting talent is nothing really. All 4 sides are heavily equipped in the batting department and all 4 sides have one or two players who if they get going, can play some very special knocks. Like I've said, if overs are reduced, we get the bet voided but if we got the full 120 overs today, I expect this line to be covered in truth.
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Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Super shouts bud! :clap:clap
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Re: August 6 - August 12 Top work today guys. IAG, Atko and Czech ensuring a profitable day for the thread. :clap
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Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Super stuff Kev :clap:clap Full house for me in the first couple of games which takes me to +41.07 for the tournament with Sussex into finals day as well.
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Re: Betfair World Matchplay - 21-29 July Tiny loss for me last night. Going to do my bets tonight up really quickly and really briefly as I'm seriously pushed for time at the minute. Justin Pipe (-2.5 legs) to beat Joe Cullen- 10/11 Blue Square- (3/10) Going to side with Pipe here as I'm not so sure the rhythm of the game will suit Joe Cullen too much. He's an extremely talented youngster and is a really heavy scorer when he gets going but the pace of Pipe will slow him down and that may just unsettle him in his Matchplay debut. Pipe has shown he is one of the most consistent players on the tour over the past year or so and he'll be desperate to transfer that form he's shown on the floor over to the big stage. Pipe's beaten Cullen twice this year, including a 6-0 whitewash in a UK Open qualifier a few months back and I think he'll make it 3 wins out of 3 this season. Wes Newton vs James Hubbard- Over 6.5 180's- Evens Boylesports- (3/10) Like Kev I think this will be a lot closer than the odds suggest. Hubbard has shown he can perform against the big players on the stage as he beat Michael van Gerwen in the final of the Youth Championship comfortably and his all round game that day was faultless on the whole. He's actually coming into the Matchplay in better form that Wes Newton is. Over the past month or so, Newton has been losing to guys you really expect him to beat comfortably but generally this year, he's been in good form but just recently he seems to have gone off the boil a touch. Whatever the scoreline, I do think we'll see some maximums in this one as both can really pepper the T20. Newton despite his recent form, managed 4 180's in his 6-4 loss to Dudbridge and he usually scores a fair few 180's. Hubbard will contribute to the line as well so I think both of them together will cover the line. Dean Winstanley to beat Gary Anderson- 7/4 Bet365- (3/10) Even when Anderson is playing at his best, Winstanley has the scoring power to stay with him and even match him, but with all the personal issues and injuries Anderson has had over the past 6 months or so, I can't be having him as such a big favourite here. He's recently had eye problems which meant he had to withdraw from games mid match and despite saying he's over them, that's certainly no guarantee. Winstanley has shown what he can do, both in the BDO and the Grand Slam in recent times, and the fact he's qualified for the Matchplay in such short time after making the switch to the PDC shows how well he has played. Winstanley scores well and generally is solid with his finishing, especially when on tops and he looks good value for the win here. Dave Chisnall vs Ronnie Baxter- Over 16.5 legs- Evens Boylesports- (3/10) I know what great form Chisnall has been in this year, but the Rocket has hardly been playing badly either. He has been scoring extremely heavily and has been notching up good averages all season on the floor and even on the stage he has performed well. He's got the scoring power to certainly keep things close with Chizzy, especially if he misses a few doubles like he's prone to do so I'll back both guys to play out a close match.
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Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Unstuck the thread as I need to put my bets up pretty early as I'm away tonight on cricket tour so hopefully this weather continues. :hope As it is at the minute, I'm currently on +22.77 with Sussex into the quarters as well. Not entirely sure if I'll have time to take anything tomorrow unless I have a quick look later on but I am getting involved today in the first 2 matches. Weather is an absolute dream so expecting a few runs in truth today. Will do them in order of when they are played with the Somerset-Essex match first. Somerset Over 14.5 4's- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Essex Over 12.5 4's- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Same bet for me for both sides here and I'd expect both teams to cover the line pretty comfortably. The only slight doubt there may be over these lines is if both sides hit plenty of 6's which will lower the 4's count but even if they clear the rope plenty of times, with the weather the way it is, the batsman should have an absolute field day today. When we look at the batsman on show for both sides, it's really hard to conceive that we won't see a ton of runs scored on what is usually a road down at Taunton. Essex have their England players back for this one with Alistair Cook and Ravi Bopara expected to play whilst James Foster returns as well and when you fit them into a batting lineup that includes the likes of James Franklin, Ryan ten Doeschate, Graham Napier, Mark Pettini and Owais Shah if he plays, you have plenty of quality batsman who can find the boundary so they should be able to muster at least 13 4's. Somerset have a ridiculous batting team as well with Trescothick and Morkel available to play today, which when added to Levi, Kieswetter, Buttler and Hildreth is a pretty daunting prospect to bowl at. You'd expect them to hit a fair few 6's but I do fancy them to hit plenty of 4's as well and with decent odds available for both sides, I'm happy to back them to both cover the line. Sussex (-3.5 wickets/20.5 runs) to beat Gloucestershire- 17/20 Sportingbet- (4/10) Sussex (Most 6's) vs Gloucestershire- 4/5 BetVictor- (5/10) Sussex Over 4.5 6's- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) I know I'm already on Sussex but in all honesty this was the perfect draw for them and it's really hard to see past them winning comfortably. Already in T20 this season, they have comfortably beaten the likes of Kent, Essex and Middlesex down at Hove and all 3 of those sides are far better in terms of quality than Gloucestershire really. With Matt Prior returning to the side, the top 3 of Nash, Wright and Prior have been hammering any bowling attack they've faced and were scoring at near enough 10 an over in every match in the latter stages of the group stage. Now that's a huge worry for Gloucestershire as excluding Murali, their bowling attack is one of the weakest in the county game really and although they've done pretty well this year bowling wise considering what they've got at their disposal, the fact that Will Gidman still isn't fit really doesn't help that department and I really do fear for the visitors when they are fielding in trying to keep Sussex down to a decent score. For them to cope with Sussex, they will need to have their best players available and that's simply not the case. Their squad isn't the deepest anyway, so the news that Chris Dent is injured whilst there is no overseas player batting wise for them given Ed Cowan has left whilst Rob Nicol isn't eligible which leaves me thinking that as well as been pretty poor bowling wise, they might just be lacking a couple of batsman in this match as well which means so much will come down to Hamish Marshall, Benny Howell and Alex Gidman and if a couple of before mentioned don't fire, it's hard to see them getting anywhere near to the home side here. Sussex won their group with such ease and even won it with a few games to spare and when you consider that they were in the group of death, it just shows how good they have been in T20 this year and I don't see them having too many problems in winning today. I've mentioned how Gloucestershire are without Will Gidman, Ed Cowan and Rob Nicol, so in that they are missing 3 of their biggest hitters which leaves only Benny Howell really who is a prominent 6 hitter. Sussex with their top 3 could win the 6's battle alone, but they also have the likes of Machan, Gatting and Scott Styris as well who can hit a long ball and with the stronger bowling attack as well, I'd be surprised if they didn't hit more maximums tonight and I'd fancy them to hit at least 5 as well in truth against a pretty poor Gloucestershire seam attack.
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Re: Betfair World Matchplay - 21-29 July Cheers mate. Happy birthday btw. :ok Hoping for another decent night over in Blackpool as I won't get many more chances to get involved this week. Andy Hamilton (-2.5 legs) to beat Brendan Dolan- 5/6 Stan James- (5/10) Andy Hamilton 3 Dart Average Over 93.5- 9/10 Boylesports- (4/10) Like Kev, I really can't look past the Hammer here. Brendan Dolan is slowly but surely turning into a one hit wonder after his efforts at the Grand Prix but since then, he's really done very little. He's made a few decent runs on a few floor events but on the big stage, he's not beaten a decent player for some time and even his win at the UK Open last month wasn't convincing in the slightest as he was trailing by a large margin at one point. He then missed a ton of match doubles against Denis Ovens and went on to lose that match which has sums the Irishman up really since his Grand Prix efforts in Ireland. Andy Hamilton is arguably playing the best darts of his life right now and he's been a very good and consistent player for some time now. Since making the final of the World Championship, he enjoyed a good debut season in the Premier League where he made the semis and has made a couple of finals on the floor as well including over in Crawley at the start of the month so he comes into the Matchplay in good form. This format should really suit the Hammer as well given his consistency and scoring power. He is one of the heaviest scorers in the game so it's hard to see where Brendan Dolan is going to win 8 legs and stay with Hamilton here. He's been missing a shed load of doubles since the Grand Prix as well and if he does get a chance, he can't let them slide as the Hammer won't miss too many. Just think with Hamilton's scoring power it will be a tough ask for Dolan winning 8 legs here and with the form he's shown, I don't think Hamilton will have too many problems in this one. Also like the look of the Hammer's average here as it looks too low. As I've said, his consistency has really improved over the last year or so and his performance in the PL really shows that. Only in 4 matches did he fail to cover the handicap and that is against the top players in the game. Tonight I don't see Dolan troubling him too much and if Hamilton gets ahead, he's a a really good front runner and won't ease up. His scoring is one of the heaviest in the sport whilst his finishing is generally pretty solid as well so I'm happy to back him to win with a decent average in the opening match of the night. Vincent van der Voort vs Ian White- Over 16.5 legs- 5/6 William Hill- (3/10) Over 6.5 180's- Evens Blue Square- (3/10) Think this should be a pretty tight one second up tonight. A little bit like the Osborne-Walsh match yesterday, neither guy has really done much in front of the TV cameras for a while now so in that should come a few nerves on the big stage especially when we get to the final stages of the game. Vincent van der Voort has been struggling with injuries and that has meant he has had a supremely rotten past few months with very few notable wins to his name. Ian White is very much the form man out of these two coming into this one, with a quarter, semi and final appearance under his belt in the past couple of months so he'll be hoping to transfer that floor form onto the big stage. If he does, he should win this one but I'm not confident enough to back him. I do think whoever wins, will do it narrowly as although White has the form behind him, van der Voort has the stage experience which usually counts for a fair bit in these events and he can score well enough to hold his own for the majority anyway. In the past when these 2 guys have played eachother, all 3 matches have been close with 2 of them going to a deciding leg and I think we'll see at least 17 legs in this one tonight. In that time, I also expect us to see 7 maximums. I think we'll see enough legs for them to hit a fair few and both are pretty decent scoring wise. Van der Voort even when not at his best, can still score pretty heavily as once his first dart hits the treble bed, the other 2 usually follow and he managed to hit 5 180's against Robert Thornton recently in Dusseldorf in just 10 legs so the Dutchman could go close to covering this line on his own. Ian White can also contribute to this line as well with a few 180's so in what I'm anticipating should be pretty tight game, I think we'll see some 180's thrown in there as well. Colin Lloyd to beat Mark Webster- 11/10 Boylesports- (4/10) Colin Lloyd (Most 180's) vs Mark Webster- 13/8 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Mark Webster 3 Dart Average Under 92.5- Evens Boylesports- (3/10) Taking a few on in the final game of the night where I'm with Kev on the winner. It's been a good while now since I've seen Mark Webster play well enough to even consider backing him and whilst his scoring can be good from time to time, the amount of doubles he's been missing is a real worry for the Welshman. The fact he's made it past the last 16 of any tournament just once this year really shows how he's been struggling for form and if he keeps that form up tonight, Colin Lloyd is good enough, and certainly playing well enough to capitalize. He's already won a Players Championship tournament this month in Crawley where he beat the likes of Dean Winstanley, Terry Jenkins and Andy Hamilton which will have given him a massive confidence boost coming into a tournament which he has won in the past. His scoring this year has improved massively which has meant he has the game now to really trouble the big guns in the game and that's shown through his various quarter and semi final appearances on the floor. Lloyd is just playing a whole lot better than Webster is just now and with the fond memories he has on this stage, I think he's decent value to win tonight. I also quite like the price on Jaws to hit the most maximums as the price looks a bit high to me. I wouldn't be making him such an outsider as the odds suggest, and in all honesty, I don't know if I'd make him the outsider at all quite frankly. This season his scoring has been really impressive and that's emphasised by the fact he has already nailed a 9 darter and beat plenty of guys in the top 16. Now you don't do that without heavy scoring and we saw over at Ally Pally over Christmas just how prolific Lloyd can be on the 180's if he gets going so I'll back him on the maximum front as well. My final bet of the night is the unders on Mark Webster's average as although it may appear fairly low given the amount of quality he has, it looks a little high to me with the way he's played this year. To sustain a decent average, you need to hit the majority of your doubles and that's what has been the Welshman's problem has been of late. He has been missing far too many doubles for a while now and I don't expect him to suddenly start hitting everything tonight either. Even when he managed 9 maximums in that epic match against Richie Burnett at Ally Pally at the World Championship, his average was still below the 90 mark which shows how missed doubles affected averages and since that match, his form has only gone one way so I'll back him to continue his less than impressive form again tonight.
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Re: Betfair World Matchplay - 21-29 July Pretty decent night, albeit with Osborne and Burnett losing. Van Gerwen was impressive though and thankfully Burnett started playing well after the break to see his average through. With the Burnett outrights settled, after the first two nights I'm sitting on +25.80 for the tournament.
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Re: Betfair World Matchplay - 21-29 July And a couple for me in the final match of the night as well... Michael van Gerwen to beat Simon Whitlock- 5/2 Sportingbet- (3/10) Michael van Gerwen Highest Checkout Over 102.5- 5/6 William Hill- (3/10) I know I'm on MVG outright but at this price against Whitlock, I think he's really good value. It's clear that Whitlock has problems with this matchup in that van Gerwen has won 4 out of the 6 matches the two have played, including 3 of the last 4 and Whitlock's only win in that time came at the World Championship in a match van Gerwen could quite easily have won. Since that match however, the Dutchman has beaten Whitlock twice with the Aussie only winning 1 leg in the whole of those 2 matches which is pretty astonishing in truth. The fact is though van Gerwen has been one of the best players on the tour this year with his form on the floor being unstoppable at times. He's already won 2 floor events so far this year including in Birmingham where he beat Whitlock 6-1. His problem has been transferring that form he has shown onto the main stage but this format could well suit him and this could be the tournament where he really shows what he can do as it's only a matter of time before he does that so I'm happy to back him to continue his decent record over Whitlock. I also think he'll nail a decent checkout at some point during the match tonight. When he's on song van Gerwen, he misses very little and his combination checkouts are a joy to watch at times. Even if he isn't playing that well, there's always a chance of him hitting a decent checkout seemingly out of nowhere whilst when he's playing well, he's more likely to checkout any score more times than not and I'd be surprised if he didn't hit a ton plus checkout at some point tonight.
US Open 2012
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: US Open 2012 Much better day for me yesterday albeit with rushed and even a couple of lacking write-ups. It was just one of those days at work and that won't happen again. Anyway, a good night nonetheless and +19.93 coming from it which takes me to +15.11 for the tournament. All 5 of my outrights are through to the third round as well so all of those just need one more win to reach the last 16.