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fishy25

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    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013 Cheers for the words guys. Ironic thing is I did walk under a ladder a couple of weeks ago. Not that I believe in any of that though...:eyes Still the luck evades me. Must admit I did have the unders in the Krumm-Peer match which scraped through but I didn't post it so nothing to that really. The Murray result just epitomized how the tournament has gone really. Lost count how many bets have lost by a game when they should have been covered and obviously the 2 retirements were horrible timing as well. Not giving up though but it's a long way back for me. Think if I overcome this deficit (around -30 atm), it'll be my best achievement in a single tournament. Things are going to have to change though. Hopefully starting with tonight but confidence isn't too high at the minute hence the tender stakes. Super stuff from Slider though! Seems to really have turned the corner now. Nicolas Almagro (-1.5 sets) to beat Jerzy Janowicz- 5/6 PaddyPower- (4/10) With Czech on this one. Watched the majority of both players' second round match and their performances were extremely contrasting. Janowicz was perhaps unfortunate not to have taken the first set as he looked to get a rotten call on set point which affected him for a while but in the end he came through. Thing is, you could tell these courts were not playing quick enough for his game. His serve really wasn't anywhere near as effective as he needs it to be and Devvarman was creating openings in most service games. Put that with the Pole's not so great return game and I think he has a problem here. Almagro wasn't magnificent against Gimeno-Traver but he did play well towards the end and served decently as well. You have to wonder if fatigue will play a part here for Janowicz, especially if he doesn't win the first set. That Devvarman game would have exhausted him, and Czech has mentioned, he's played doubles as well so he may not be 100% here. Almagro is usually patchy in the opening rounds of the slams, but he's looked better usual this year, and I think he'll take this no worse than 3-1. Evgeny Donskoy (+7.5 games) to beat Kei Nishikori- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Think Donskoy will have chances here. Nishikori was in no way convincing in the opening couple of sets against Andujar and on serve, he was gifting plenty of chances. I'm not 100%, in fact I'm pretty sure there's some injury that is still hampering him a bit, whether that be the one he got against Murray or a different one I don't know, but he doesn't look completely right to me. Donskoy must be on a high after beating Youzhny and although I didn't see any of that one, apparently he was hitting plenty of winners from the baseline which is a good sign against Nishikori as he doesn't possess the power to stop the Russian from doing that again. Nishikori has been starting slowly, and I think Donskoy is playing well enough this week to take the chances he is given and give Kei a test here. Handicap is a pretty high one and he can cover it in 3 sets but regardless, I think he'll cover it. Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Sam Querrey- 3/4 BetVictor- (4/10) Wawrinka (-2.5 games) to beat Sam Querrey- (3/10) Odds have dropped on Stan enough here for me to back him on both fronts here. I'd be having him as a pretty decent favourite here given what I saw of him against Kamke. He's playing some really decent stuff at the minute and although he was given Kamke chances with a fair few unforced errors, the fact that he didn't drop either of the two sets they played despite being a break down was impressive. Querrey was extremely fortunate that Baker got injured again as he was in serious trouble there. A bit like Janowicz, the courts aren't playing quick enough for the American from what I've seen. He wasn't able to serve as big as he usually is and Baker was getting quite a few chances. Wawrinka may not be as good as returner, but his serve is far superior than Baker's is so he will get more cheap points. If both continue playing the way they have, I think there is only one winner here and I don't often say that with Wawrinka, that's how much he has impressed me. He's won both games in the past between the two, they weren't comfortable and this might not be either, but I do think he will win and the handicap, with odds against looks low enough for me to take as well. Hopefully Stan continues playing well here. Janko Tipsarevic (-4.5 games) to beat Julien Benneteau- 4/5 BetVictor- (4/10) Went against the Serb in the second round successfully, but think that comeback from Lacko might just wake him up a bit. Tipsarevic was in cruise mode for the first couple of sets before he dropped the next two and he was playing pretty well in all honesty, especially from the baseline. Benneteau was lucky to have got past Roger-Vasselin in the way he did as he was a break down in the fourth set, and all 3 of his sets could have easily gone the other way which aren't good signs for the Frenchman. Even against Dimitrov which was a good win for him in the first round, he was struggling in the first set before he rallied and Tipsarevic simply won't let him get away with those kind of performances I don't think. Like I've said, I expect the Serb to really get his act together after the Lacko match and even against Hewitt, he really wasn't playing as well as he should be so a good performance should be set for him here. He beat Benneateau in the French Open last year in straight sets, covering the handicap and I think he'll win by at least 5 games here. Jurgen Melzer (+7.5 games) to beat Tomas Berdych- Evens BetVictor- (3/10) Tricky little match for Berdych here. Melzer usually raises his game for the big players in the slams especially and he'll be confident having made the 3rd round of slam for a good while. He usually is at risk when playing the players he's used to beat, as he showed perfectly in the second round, but against the better players, he does tend to play well. If you remember, he's beaten Djokovic and Ferrer on clay over in France before, and has troubled the likes of Roddick and Federer in the slams before as well. Berdych hammered Rufin in the second round and hasn't really been tested too much thus far so I still don't know how well he is actually playing to be honest, so Melzer might catch him a bit cold here. He's lost to Hewitt and Bautista-Agut this year already, and dropped a set to Dodig so there's hope for Melzer here I think. The Austrian is a dangerous player still on the big stage and he's caused Berdych problems in the past, winning 2 of their 4 matches and only narrowly losing their most recent match in 2 close fought sets. I wouldn't actually put it past Melzer to win a set here, but even if he loses in 3, he can keep Berdych on his toes and cover the handicap here and I think it looks a tad big in all honesty. Couple for the women... Marion Bartoli (-2.5 games) to beat Ekaterina Makarova- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) The H2H really struck me here. In the 2 games they've played, Bartoli hasn't dropped a set and has only dropped 4 games in total which suggests match up problems for Makarova here. We have to remember here that she's defending a shed load of points given her quarter final appearance last year so that's pressure in itself on her shoulders and there might be some mental worries for her given the results in the past against Bartoli. She's not won either of her matches so far that impressively, despite winning both in straight sets whereas Bartoli has come through really comfortably. The heat won't help Bartoli in actual fact as her fitness isn't the best but then again, it should make her want to get this one done as quickly as possible. She's playing the better stuff of the two at the minute and the handicap is low enough for me to back the Frenchwoman here to come through. Heather Watson (+7.5 games) to beat Agnieszka Radwanska- 4/5 BetVictor- (3/10) This handicap instantly looked massive to me. Radwanska may have hammered Watson and not lost a match so far this year, but in actual fact, she's playing as well as she was last year. Usually, she absolutely hammers most players she faces that are outside the top 20 or so, but this season, she has only covered this handicap 3 times in the games she's played. She was having some problems against Begu in the second set a couple of days ago whilst she just about won the first set against Bobusic in the first round before cruising in the second. Watson's win over Pervak was a pretty decent one in truth after her worries in the first set. I'm sure she will be itching to put in a better performance than at Wimbledon last year where she was massively outclassed. She should have learnt from that game, and with Radwanska not playing at that level so far this week, 5 games should be within the Brit here and that should cover the handicap.

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013 I wasn't even going to post these given the luck I'm having so far, underlined by the retirements yesterday but tradition is tradition. Wouldn't advise anyone going anywhere near these though and perhaps the best tip of all would be to oppose these: Andy Murray (-10.5 games) to beat Joao Sousa- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) The hot conditions should make Murray want to get these over and done with I fancy. He beat Haase easily enough and covered the handicap against him so he should have more chance of doing it against Sousa. It was only last week he got beat 6-1 6-2 by Florian Mayer and Bedene has hammered him as well this year. He had a good draw in the first round but Murray will be outclassing him on all fronts. Providing Murray doesn't tank a couple of sets which I don't think he will do given the heat, he should win this easily. James Duckworth (+4.5 games) to beat) Blaz Kavcic- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Was temped to back the Aussie for the win but the handicap looks alright to me. He'll have home support here which will be key as Kavcic isn't the sort of player to put all of that out of his mind and dominate really. He beat Bellucci easily but the Brazilian has been struggling for a little while now whilst Duckworth just about scraped through against Mitchell. There should be some adrenaline flowing for him after that one as he'll have 100% of the support in this one rather than 50 in his first match. He's a talented enough player is Duckworth as he showed last year in taking a set against Tipsarevic and I just fancy him, with home support to put in a good showing here. Juan Martin Del Potro vs Benjamin Becker- Over 28.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Might be a really stupid bet this one but I haven't strayed too far from stupid so far this week. Del Potro may have hammered Mannarino but that doesn't exactly make me feel like backing the Argentine. It was still just a week or so ago that he comfortably lost to Hewitt and wasn't far off losing to Mathieu easily so I still get the feeling he is yet to find his form this season. The Mannarino result may have helped but the Frenchman has been playing on the challenger circuit and isn't the player he was a couple of years back when he made his break through. Becker has done alright this season, as he's taken Monfils to 3 sets, as well as Youzhny and beaten Rosol as well so he should have some confidence with his game. He actually possesses a pretty decent serve which should give him some cheap points on occasion and if he can keep one of these sets really tight, if not nick it, it could well see the overs through here. Daniel Brands vs Bernard Tomic- Over 35.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) I was considering that over 3.5 sets bet like Pensioner mentioned but I've opted for the overs instead. The reason for that being Brand's serve and he could well keep every set close without taking one of them. He's never the best player under pressure I've never thought, and the crowd won't help him in that respect. I'd actually be a tad surprised if he didn't take a set, but there's just something telling me that 7-6 7-6 6-4 isn't entirely out of the question, or at least something similar. Let's hope I'm wrong and it does go at least 4 sets, which should see the overs through anyway.

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013 Taking some for the women as well. Venus Williams (-6.5 games) to beat Alize Cornet- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) I expect Venus to follow in Serena's footsteps yesterday. Perhaps not quite as easily, but comfortably nonetheless. She hammered Voskovoeva in the first round, which sometimes the American is a little slow in and she's won 4 on the bounce this season which is good to see again. Cornet I actually think is a decent player and has some potential but the truth of the matter is her form from a couple of years ago has deserted her a bit and last season, she did very little away from the clay. She ended the year really poorly and hasn't started 2013 a whole lot better, dropping sets against Bobusic and then getting easily beaten by Scheepers. She only just about scraped through against Erakovic who is distinctly average and Williams should be able to hit through Cornet today. She's in good nick and won all 4 sets in the past against her, covering the handicap on their most recent meeting which was on a hard court. Jie Zheng vs Sam Stosur- Over 20.5 games- 5/6 BetVictor- (4/10) Was pretty close to pulling the trigger on Zheng for the win her but I've stuck to the overs. Zheng beat her just a couple of weeks back in Sydney and Stosur really just doesn't seem to play well in her home tournament. Why that is, I don't think anyone has a clue as the conditions really suit her as well as having home support but she just never seems to do it. She was pretty fortunate to beat Chang as easily as she did in the end and the first set could have easily gone the other way. Zheng also won a pretty tight match and looking at the H2H, it's hard to make an argument to why this won't be close. 4/5 of the matches they've played have gone to 3 sets, and really tight 3 sets as well and neither has started the year well. Like I said, there should be some value for your money if you back Jie Zheng, but I'm happy to stick with the overs in what should be a nervy match for Stosur you fancy. Tamira Paszek to beat Madison Keys- 2/1 Bet365- (3/10) Now, I didn't bite the bullet on Zheng but I am with Paszek and it's the first real 'underdog' that I've backed outright so far. I put the word underdog in inverted commas because I just don't see it myself. I know the American put a really good run together in Sydney, beating Safarova and Zheng and also Li Na, but she's also lost in straight sets to a girl ranked outside the top 200 this year and narrowly beat Dellacqua who isn't up to the level of Paszek. The Austrian seemed to go off the boil after Wimbledon and the grass season last year but given her quality and her game, she is no way a 2/1 shot in my eyes. She pushed Jankovic in the second set over in Sydney, and now she's won a game this season, that should give her confidence and ease the pressure off her shoulders somewhat. She has a really powerful game as she showed last year on the grass and given Keys is still inexperienced at this level, Paszek looks to be the call here. Angelique Kerber (-5.5 games) to beat Lucie Hradecka- 4/5 BetVictor- (3/10) Kerber is probably one of my least favourite people to back with handicaps as she's let me down in the past but willing to give her another go here. She should win this comfortably, despite my backing in all honesty. She beat the Czech twice last year, very comfortably at Wimbledon and actually beat her twice in 2008 as well when Kerber was a shadow of the player she is now. That suggests that Hradecka has match up problems with the German and her recent losses to an erratic Pavlyuchenkova and Morita really don't feel you with confidence. Mentally, she's not the best and if she losses a couple of games in a row, she can really start getting the hump like only women know how to. These days, she seems to enjoy her best results in the doubles and she has almost seemed to prioritize that format given her contrasting success in the doubles and singles. Kerber was rotten in truth over in Brisbane from what I saw but she improved over in Sydney and she played pretty well in beating Kuznetsova from what I saw. She comfortably came through her first round match and she should be able to counter punch Hradecka's power her to her advantage. Handicap allow a tight set providing she can win one of them easily and that should be within her in my opinion.

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013 Think we can all hold our hands up at what a poor day yesterday was although some of the calls were really unlucky in retrospect. Lisicki should have won the match whilst for me personally, 3 of the bets fell a game short either way and they should all have been covered so the results don't really match the pick unfortunately. We all have those bad days though, and hopefully the opposite will happen tonight. I know Atko said about being picky, and really identifying the right bets, and he is spot on, but tonight I actually really like the card so I am taking a few. Not gunna watch any of it tonight as I'm working at uni in the morning so hopefully the Gods will look down on me whilst I sleep. As always, men's bets first... Kei Nishikori (-8.5 games) to beat Carlos Berlocq- 5/6 Paddy Power- (6/10) I've opened an account with Paddies just for the sake of some bets tonight as their lines differ from most places. I had this line down, when analysing the match up, as at least a game higher with a narrower price so I'm happy to jump on board here. Nishikori is the far more talented player here, especially away from the clay as that's where Berlocq is more at home. On the quicker courts however, he doesn't have too much to show in the past and his first round win, which looked unlikely considering he lost the first set 6-1, is a bonus for the Argentine. Nishikori eventually prevailed comfortably in his first round match after dropping the first set against Hanescu and he should be comfortable here. He has still only lost the one match this season, that being to Murray in Brisbane and he's comfortably beaten players of a higher level than Berlocq on this surface. This line actually allows for a close set somewhere, and even a dropped set from Nishikori, but at some point, if not from the front, I expect him to dominate and win this one with plenty to spare. Nicolas Almagro vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver- Over 33.5 games- 10/11 Paddy Power- (5/10) Surprised to see the line so low here considering Almagro's tendencies in the slams and he's never had an easy game against his fellow Spaniard here in the past. The past 4 meetings have gone the distance to 3 sets and there have been plenty of tie breaks as well when these two have met. They both prefer the clay, but they also possess pretty big serves which helps the overs cause here. Almagro, despite being the better player has patches where he goes missing, especially in the slams and one fact to point out is that only once last year in the hard court slams, did he win a game in straight sets which is quite surprising given his talent. He dropped 2 sets to Steve Johnson as well which he shouldn't really be doing and with Gimeno-Traver recording a good win over Kubot in the first round, he should have enough here to test Almagro. Jerzy Janowicz (-5.5 games) to beat Somdev Devvarman- 17/20 BetVictor- (5/10) I like the Pole here and again expected a larger handicap to his name. Devvarman missed the three quarters of the season last year meaning he slipped down the rankings massively. He had a decent win over Phau in the first round but the German is little more than a challenger player these days and the score flatters the Indian a touch. He offered tons of break points in that game but Phau failed to capitalize enough, meaning Devvarman came through quite comfortably. The thing is, he really can't afford to that against Janowicz because if he is broken, he'll have an extremely tough time breaking back. The young Pole broke through last year, with him making the third round at Wimbledon and then the final in Paris and that should set him up for a decent year this season. He might still be slightly overrated because of that run in Paris but he had few problems in coming through his first match and his game should be too powerful for Devvarman really who is still getting match practise really. Devvarman actually won their only previous match but that was before his injury problems and Janowicz is a completely different player now to back then. Fancy him to come through this one, covering the handicap in the process. Tobias Kamke vs Stanislas Wawrinka- Over 33.5 games- 5/6 Paddy Power- (4/10) This line looks really low to me. Can't help but feel Stan is being extremely overrated here to be honest. He beat Stebe comfortably in the first round which surprised me but the same still applies in my books for Wawrinka. Mentally he is still very suspect and one result doesn't change that. Wawrinka was really comfortable in that one but Kamke is in better form and possesses a decent game to trouble Stan. The German has only lost the one game this season and that was to Ferrer where there isn't any shame in losing. His serve is decent and his all round game is generally quite solid and his comfortable win over Cipolla should give him confidence as well as his mini run in Doha where he won all of his matches easily. Wawrinka is still suspect to me and this line looks very low for one of his slam matches. He may well prove me wrong again for the second time this week, but I think Kamke will push him here. David Ferrer vs Tim Smyczek- Under 27.5 games- 4/5 Paddy Power- (4/10) Went against Ferrer successfully in the first round as I thought Rochus would push him given just how tricky he can be. Now however, I feel is the right time to back the Spaniard now he's got the first match out of the way. Rochus is always a tricky little test for anyone really and he's had a few problems in the past with the Belgian but he should win this one comfortably. Ferrer actually covered the unders, well this line against Rochus and I expect him to do the same again. Smyczek is here as a lucky loser as Stebe beat him comfortably in qualification so beating Karlovic was a good result for the American but there's always concerns over Karlovic's fitness these days so don't think we can read too much into that. The American hasn't really done anything away from the challenger circuit really and despite wins over Istomin and Melzer last year, Ferrer is an entirely different proposition. He's not got any weapons to trouble Ferrer as they both generally grind but the big difference is, Ferrer is far better at doing it. Don't see anything else than Ferrer coming through comfortably in 3 for the second game in a row. Sam Querrey vs Brian Baker- Over 37.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) I'm with Czech here in thinking this will be a close affair between the two Americans. Querrey has the big serve whilst Baker favours the baseline exchanges and it should be an extremely competitive match. Querrey dropped the opening set in his first match whilst Baker slugged out a win against Bogomolov in 5 and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this one go all the way. Baker has the quality in the rallies to really hold his own and but for Querrey's superior serve, I would have him as a decent shot to win this one but ultimately I do think he will fall short. That doesn't mean he can't make this last a while and I do fancy some really tight sets today. Last year their match went all the way to 3 sets and with both confident players in their own right, I fancy a really close fought thing here. 4 sets is the minimum I expect and hopefully that should see the line through. Lukas Lacko vs Janko Tipsarevic- Over 33.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) This is another line which I think looks on the low side. It's always slightly risky backing Lacko as he can fall apart quicker than you can say Janko Tipsarevic but he's been in decent form in the early stages of this season, beating the likes of Troicki and Bellucci comfortably and then beat Muller in straight sets as well so he's clearly playing some good stuff at the minute. How Tipsarevic actually beat Hewitt in 3 sets I have no idea as the Aussie was a double break up in one of the sets before the Serb rallied. He is much the more consistent player here, but he has dropped sets to Bedene and Bautista-Agut this season so he his game can be slightly error prone on occasion. If Lacko is on song, he can really trouble the big boys but it's his consistency which lets him down. He has started the season well though and he does have the game to cause Tipsarevic problems here so with the possibility of Lacko actually showing up today, which I think he just might, I don't think Tipsarevic will have it quite as easily as he did against Hewitt and Lacko could well cause him problems today.

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013

    Three more for me. It's going to be a long night ... - TOMMY ROBREDO to beat Jesse Levine @ 2.12 with unibet (5pts) In all honesty, I've probably over-thought this one. Yesterday I said I wouldn't be totally comfortable with my money on the Spaniard and in a lot of ways, I'm not comfortable. The price, however, has lured me in. There's very little between these players, but Robredo has more Slam experience and if he plays anywhere near his best, he'll win. He's wily and crafty and prefers the slower courts in Australia. Levine has started the season brightly enough, but he's vulnerable on serve and might just get out-witted. - GUILLERMO GARCIA-LOPEZ to beat Rajeev Ram x TOMMY HAAS to beat Jarkko Nieminen @ 2.02 with unibet (5pts) Gulp. This is a heart-attack on a bet-slip. Tell you what though, I fancy it to come in. GGL, as I affectionately know him, is a roaster, but he's got more talent than Ram. The American is a very average player, one who has actually regressed down the years. GGL has it in his locker to mix it with the best, it just depends whether he brings his form to the table. I reckon he will. Haas v Nieminen should be very easy on the eye, but I feel Haas has a better serve and a little more accuracy in the key moments. They'll both win, but it'll be bollock-wrenching. Take this at your peril. - SABINE LISICKI to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 2.62 with unibet (4pts) Wow, a lady bet. I don't often dabble in these. Bets on WTA, that is, not women. Plenty of those frequent the chateau. I'd happily welcome both Caroline and Sabine and treat them to a lovely bottle of Sainte-Emillion, but I suppose that dream will never come true. Anyway, all I've heard this week is that Wozniacki is going to lose this match. Apparently Lisicki is her worst match-up. I really think the dear Dane has other balls on her mind than the yellow fluffy ones she needs to hit with more venom. McIlroy has done little for her. Lisicki to win, mainly because you guys are all saying so. Right, time to watch ... and hopefully not weep!
    It's okay mate. We're all friends here so no need to make stuff up. We love you regardless. ;)

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013 Onto the second day then and again I'm taking a few. Such a nervous experience waking up to scroll through the results, not having a clue what happened in them. :lol Will start with the men's matches... Horacio Zeballos (+6.5 games) to beat Andreas Seppi- 17/20 BetVictor- (4/10) Seppi had a really good season last year and has been consistent for some time now which used to always be his problem but when it comes to the slams he can still be found out a little short mentally and Zeballos is good enough to take advantage of that. The Argentine has had decent preparation for Australia as he won a challenger tournament over in Brazil and he'll be confident knowing that he's won the only previous meeting between the two which was on a hard court. Think Seppi will pull through but don't think he'll have this all his own way. Marinko Matosevic vs Marin Cilic- Over 35.5 games- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Already spoke about Cilic in my outright but there's enough to suggest this one should have some legs on it. Matosevic has a powerful game backed up with a decent serve, along with home support so he should trouble Cilic in parts. The Croat can often take a little time getting going in the slams and Matosevic has already taken him the distance in the US Open last year and as long as we see 4 sets here which I think we will, the overs should be fine here. Alejandro Falla (-5.5 games) to beat Josselin Ouanna- 10/11 StanJames- (4/10) Falla seems to enjoy the big occasion these days and his slam record recently is pretty decent considering his tough draws. He has already troubled Simon and Kohlschreiber this season and a repeat performance of those games should see him through here. His French opponent barely ventures into the main events and chooses to play the challengers more often than not so a first round appearance is a real bonus for him. Suspect he'll be outclassed here though by the better player and even if Falla drops a set which he is prone to doing, there should be a comfortable set somewhere along the line which should see the handicap through. Yen-Hsun Lu vs Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo- Under 31.5 games- StanJames- (4/10) This line is a fair bit higher than most places have it and it's hard to make a case for the Spaniard here. Very rarely does he ever play on the hard courts so might be a case of collect the prize money and move onto the clay for him here. Kamke has already hammered him this season, dropping just 3 games and you suspect Lu might do something similar today. He took a set off Ferrer last week in Auckland and is very comfortable on the hard courts. His all round game is just far more suited for the quicker conditions whilst it's the complete opposite for Hidalgo really. This line allows even one really tight set, but it's hard to see anything other than a quickish win for Lu here. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Michael Llodra- Over 32.5 games- 11/10 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Quite like opposing Tsonga in early rounds of slams as he is another one who tends to give the crowd the most for their money in the big tournaments. He's been struggling with a groin a injury as well which should mean he won't be anywhere near his best today. Llodra's not played a game this season but with his game, you know what to expect. Big serve and volley which should cause Tsonga problems as he's not the greatest returner about. Expect Tsonga to come through comfortably in the end, but Llodra could well pinch a set or even if he keeps this really close, the line has a chance in 3 sets as well. Philipp Kohlschreiber (-7.5 games) to beat Steve Darcis- 10/11 Bet365- (3/10) The German is never usually the best player to back in slams unless you're taking the overs but I feel he's worth a punt here. His form has been good this year so far, beating some decent players in Falla, Malisse and Querrey and I'm not 100% over his Belgian counterpart here. Darcis is usually pretty solid in the slams and would have the potential to make this interesting, but from his results over in the challenger event a couple of weeks back, I suspect something isn't completely right. He was beaten extremely comfortably by a guy ranked outside the top 150 and I just wonder whether his decision to play just the one challenger event as preparation for Melbourne is telling us something. He rarely plays the challenger events as he showed last season and if he was fully fit, I just can't imagine he would have played that tournament. Philipp should be high on confidence here though and he is no doubt the more talented player so I think with all things considered, he might come through this more comfortably than some might imagine. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Rajeev Ram- Over 37.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) This just strikes me as an overs game with breaks left right and centre. Secretly both might fancy their chances here but both players are extremely streaky and this could well be a 5 setter. Both of their previous encounters have been extremely close and you sense neither of these guys are likely to close this out in 3 solid sets. Ram has already played a couple of lengthy games in qualification whilst the Spaniard is no stranger to lengthy games in the slams so think the overs is the call here. And 4 for the women... Victoria Azarenka (-7.5 games) to beat Monica Niculescu- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) I know there may be questions over Azarenka's fitness given she had to withdraw before facing Serena in Brisbane but I'd be surprised if she doesn't follow in Sharapova's footsteps yesterday. Very rarely will you see Azarenka waste too much time in winning her first few matches in the slams and if she isn't completely 100%, she'll want this over in rapid time. She's covered this handicap in the past 3 meetings against the Romanian and Niculescu really doesn't have the game to push Azarenka a great deal. One set with ease for Azarenka should do the job and I fancy her to do at least that. Sabine Lisicki (+3.5 games) to beat Caroline Wozniacki- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Yeah I'm with the majority on Lisicki here. Am siding with a bit of caution and taking the handicap just in case Wozniacki does sneak through. The problem for her though is this is a really good match up for the German as she can simply hit through the Dane. She possesses the far better serve of the two which can get her out of trouble whilst Wozniacki will have to try and take the initiative at times which, given her poor form of late, is unlikely in truth. The German has won the past 2 encounters, both in straight sets and I expect a decent showing from her today, if not the win. Carla Suarez Navarro vs Sara Errani- Under 18.5 games- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Horrid match up for the Spaniard here really as she doesn't have any weapons to her game to trouble Errani on a hard court in truth. To be honest, even on her favoured clay she would find it tough to cause the Italian too many problems but on a hard court, Errani will simply be tying her in knots. Navarro is hardly in good form either considering she's lost both of her games this year, failing to win a set in the process which won't have given her tons of confidence. Errani really showed what she can do in the slams in 2012 which meant she sawed up the rankings and into the top 10 which is a great result for her given she doesn't possess the power of the elite few women. She should be fine in the early few rounds again though and she's beaten Navarro in every match they've played and has yet to drop a set and I expect a similar result again today. Nadia Petrova vs Kimiko Date Krumm- Over 19.5 games- StanJames- (3/10) I quite like taking the overs in Krumm's matches in slams as she gives it her all as she knows she won't have too many more opportunities on the biggest stages. She's started this season really impressively as well, coming through qualification in Sydney, beating King and Tatishvili in the process so she's clearly playing well is the veteran. The H2H is another good sign for Krumm as she's 1-1 with Petrova in the past but both games have covered the overs here pretty comfortably. Petrova should pull through you feel, but the Japanese veteran should push her here to cover the overs for me.

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013 Taken one early one as the price isn't right. Igor Sijsling vs Denis Istomin- Tie Break in Match- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) This price won't last for long and when you consider than Coral has this price at 2/5 it shows just how high the odds are. What we have here are two players who possess decent serves and on the hard courts, that always opens up the possibility of a tie break happening, especially in the slams where we have 4 sets of opportunity. Istomin should come through this one but he can be sloppy on return for periods and Sijsling is a big guy with a big serve and almighty forehand. He possesses a lot of power and should get some cheap games especially given Istomin isn't the greatest returner on the tour. Sijsling took Ferrer to a tie break at the US Open last year which shows how hard he is to break at times and I expect at least one breaker in this game.

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013 Right let's get to this then. Here's to a good couple of weeks ahead of us :ok Fair few on the men's side of things, and a couple for the women as well. Was going to take a few more as well but the prices aren't what I want. Will start with the men... Tobias Kamke (-5.5 games) to beat Flavio Cipolla- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) Don't envisage too many problems for the German here. He's beaten Cipolla in the last 3 meetings (twice last year) and hasn't dropped a set in any of those 3 games. Kamke has had a decent preparation for Melbourne as well, winning some games over in Doha comfortably before Ferrer saw him off. The problem here for the Italian is power really, and more specifically the serve. Kamke has a decent serve on him which will get him some cheap games but Cipolla will have to fight for everything. On clay he is more effective with his slices and what not, but on the quicker surfaces he does really struggled to inject any real power to his game. Even on the slower courts, Kamke beat him on clay last year 6-3 6-4 so on a quicker surface, I fancy Kamke to come through this one comfortably. John Millman (-4.5 games) to beat Tatsuma Ito- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Really good draw for the Aussie here in home conditions. It was only a couple of weeks ago he hammered Ito 6-4 6-1 in Brisbane and since then he's taken sets off Murray and Seppi, and beaten Robredo as well so confidence must be high for the home boy. Ito, as well as losing to Millman, was hammered by another Aussie ranked outside the top 400 in Sydney as well so clearly his form isn't what he would have wanted coming into a slam. He did beat Millman three times last year, but Millman's form wasn't what it is now and with those impressive results against Murray and Seppi, I fancy him to beat the man from Japan comfortably again for the second time this year. Cedrik-Marcel Stebe vs Stanislas Wawrinka- Over 34.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) Probably one of my favourite bets to take in the slams. Wawrinka and overs usually go together hand in hand in the slams as he never seems to do things easily. I've never really put my finger on what that's down to but his mentality is fragile and pretty weak in truth. He can be cruising at one stage, only to go missing for a game or two or even an hour which makes him a prime candidate for the overs. You only have to look at his results in the slams last year to see just how much he loves a tough 4/5 setter. He did beat Stebe at the start of the year over in India, but then he lost to Bedene which sums Wawrinka's consistency up really. Stebe has come through qualification here so will know the courts well and he showed against the likes of Hewitt and Troicki last year in the slams that he can play so overs is the bet for me here. Xavier Malisse (-6.5 games) to beat Pablo Andujar- 8/11 Bet365- (3/10) Have to fancy Malisse here really. He may not be the player he once was but can't help but feel Andujar is here to pick up the prize money. His form is non-existent and he hasn't actually won a game since the US Open last year, losing 9 matches in a row to date so he'll have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to trouble the Belgian. Malisse is particularly dangerous on grass, but he's no mug on the hard courts either. He's beaten the likes of Klizan and Giraldo on the hard courts this year and those two guys are a couple of levels about Andujar on the hard courts as the Spaniard generally picks up most of his points on the clay. These two guys actually met a couple of years ago at this stage and Malisse ran out an easy winner in 3 sets, easily covering the handicap and I think he should do the same again today. Michael Russell (+9.5 games) to beat Tomas Berdych- Evens Bet365- (3/10) No way I'm having this handicap on Berdych at the minute, at least not until he shows some form. He has already lost to Hewitt and Bautista-Agut this year and often he starts the slams quite slowly, even when he seems to be in decent form. He certainly isn't coming into Melbourne so there's enough to suggest Russell can be competitive here. Berdych has never really had an easy time against the veteran American and in their most recent meeting back in 2010, Russell took a set off Berdych. He is a guy who really fights to the end and I'm never overly convinced by the Czech in early rounds of tournaments these days so I'm happy to side with the American as this handicap appears a little high. Kevin Anderson vs Paolo Lorenzi- Under 30.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (3/10) Prefer the unders here to the handicap as a 6-4 6-4 6-4 scoreline isn't out of the question. Kevin Anderson is highly professional in everything he does and the problem for Lorenzi here will be breaking the South African's serve. On clay where he is at home he may have a chance, but I'm unsure whether he has enough about his return game to break Anderson on a quicker surface. Anderson is in decent form as well which should have played him into form for Melbourne, as he's beaten some decent players already this year. Lorenzi won a couple of game over in Doha before Ferrer beat him comfortably and then Lacko did the same last week in Auckland. Lorenzi has the potential to keep it close but Anderson will get chances on his serve whereas it's unlikely to be the same on the other foot. Anderson won their only previous encounter last year 6-4 6-3 and I think he'll secure a break in each set to cover the unders. Olivier Rochus (+9.5 games) to beat David Ferrer- Evens Ladbrokes- (3/10) This might appear slightly risky given Ferrer's early season form but Rochus is a tricky opponent for him as his game isn't too dissimilar to the Spaniard's. Both will run a hell of a lot as they aren't the biggest guys on the tour meaning they struggle for power and they both have to hassle. It's the H2H which struck me here though as Rochus seems to fare pretty well against the Spaniard. In the two meetings between them last year, Ferrer won them both in straight sets but Rochus kept it close for the majority in both games which should give him confidence ahead of this one. The Belgian does seem to enjoy this match-up against whilst Ferrer will win, I think Rochus will keep this close enough to cover the handicap between two real husslers on the tour. Mikhail Youzhny (-6.5 games) to beat Matthew Ebden- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Not the biggest fan of going against the home players but Youzhny should have enough about him with his experience to cope with Ebden here. He was extremely patchy against Becker in Doha before winning comfortably in the third set and then loss to Davydenko which is no big surprise given the way the Russian has started this season. Ebden ended last year really badly and looks to have continued in the same way this year with losses to Goffin and Granollers. There are a couple of reasons why I like the Russian here though. One is that the motivation should be there this week given he went out in the first round 12 months ago meaning there are serious points to be gained by him here. He is generally a grand slam player and often makes it to the fourth round on a regular basis. He does struggle at times to get going early on, but he does usually find his feet and play some decent stuff towards the latter stages of games. He comfortably beat Ebden at the back end of last year 6-3 6-1 and whilst I doubt it will be that comfortable today, I do still think he'll come through with a bit to spare here. And a couple for the women... Li Na (-7.5 games) to beat Sesil Karatantcheva- 11/10 StanJames- (4/10) Don't see Li having too many problems in her opener in truth and I'm a little surprised at the price we are getting here. She's been in really good form this season so far, winning over in China and then making the semis in Sydney. She's only dropped 2 sets in total in the games she has won and she does have the tendency to win her first couple matches of the slams in decent style. Her Kazakhstan opponent today hasn't yet played a game this season which isn't ideal and even at the back end of last year, she was getting beaten comfortably by women ranked well outside the top 100. Li is one of the best there are around right now and I just don't see how she's going to be troubled. One really comfortable set should see the handicap through and I fully expect Li to win this easily. Irina-Camelia Begu (-4.5 games) to beat Arantxa Rus- 11/10 Bet365- (3/10) Rus is in a real hole at the minute with her tennis, as she has only won 1 of her last 10 matches and the 4 sets she has lost this year across her 2 matches, have only seen her win 7 games in total which tells its own story. Begu is no world beater, but she finished 2012 well with a semi appearance in Linz and before that she took the tournament in Uzbekistan which will have given her confidence no doubt heading into this year. She generally plays her best stuff on the clay, but she can generate a lot of power into her shots and she should be able to hit plenty of winners today. The courts in Melbourne should actually really suit her as they aren't as quick as some hard courts, whilst her power she generates should get plenty of zip on the surface. I just feel with the way Rus is playing right now, she is there for the taking and I have to back the Romanian here to win pretty comfortably.

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013 In my eyes, whatever Atko asks for, he gets ;) I've taken quite a few tonight but I'll deal with those in a separate post. First I'm taking 2 outrights on my 'beloved' market. Richard Gasquet to reach the last 16- 5/6 Sportingbet- (3/10) Really like the Frenchman's draw here and there's not alot to trouble him in all honesty. He's already started the season well, winning over in Doha and he seemed to improve with every performance that week. He did pull out of the tournament in Sydney due to personal problems and what they were I'm not quite sure but I don't expect them to affect his performance, certainly not in the first few rounds anyway. His draw looks something like Montanes-Falla-Haas which is a pretty tame draw. You wouldn't expect him to have any problem in beating Montanes and Falla, whilst Haas hasn't started the season well, unlike Gasquet and the Frenchman beat him last year at the French. Just think with the draw Gasquet has, he should be making at least the last 16 here, and quite comfortably at that. Marin Cilic to reach the last 16- 10/11 Sportingbet- (3/10) I know Cilic hasn't started the season well but we've come to expect good performances from him of late in the slams. His draw is arguably easier than Gasquet's for the first few rounds with his likely opponents Matosevic-Garcia Lopez-Istomin/Seppi which just looks a gift to be honest if Cilic is on song. He is on a different level to all of those guys and he should be motivated for the next couple of weeks as he'll see it as a perfect chance to pick up some ranking points. He missed Melbourne last year due to injury so he'll see the next couple of weeks as a bonus should he put in some decent performances. He reached the last 16 in both of the 'quicker' slams last year and with his favourable draw, I'd be surprised if he didn't make it to at least the third round here.

    Australian Open 2013

    in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Australian Open 2013

    Ok,for this tournament gonna keep a check on the profits/losses from this upcoming Aussie Open. Just quickly is this correct. If I place a 10/10 on say Alovenac bet on Janowicz for example it would be 10 units x 1.95=return of 19.50 units That would be +0.95 units profit. Is that correct?? Nice to see the old tipsters back for this Australian Open Good luck everyone :ok
    Would be a profit of +9.50 mate. :ok

    2013 BDO World Championship

    in Darts Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Not been faring well with the match bets over the past few days but luckily Anastasia just about won last night meaning I'm up to +24.58 heading into the final with all of the outrights settled. Bit of a shame Harms didn't win and the shout out was annoying but that's darts I guess. Anyway, hoping to end on a high and I'm taking 3 in the final. Over 44.5 Legs- 10/11 Boylesports- (4/10) Tony O'Shea (Most 180's) vs Scott Waites- Evens Ladbrokes- (4/10) O'Shea Over 9.5 180's- 4/5 BetVictor- (3/10) I don't think anyone will begrudge Tony O'Shea a win here given this may well be his final chance to win at Lakeside and I do think he has every chance. What I can't see past is an extremely tight game between two extremely good players though. Scott Waites does deserve to be slight favourite but not as much as the odds suggest. His results continue to flatter him and he really hasn't been pushed whatsoever this week. His scoring is really good at the minute but his finishing would worry me if I were backing him as he's been missing tons of doubles even when not under pressure so it will be interesting to see how he fares when under pressure like I expect him to be tonight. O'Shea will score and finish a whole lot better than anyone Waites has beaten thus far and will have the crowd on his side so Waites is going to have to deal with those factors and the fact that this is his first final. I don't expect that to affect him too much to be honest but he'll still have to cope with it and play his own game. The way the pair are scoring at the minute, I expect a lot of holds and not many breaks of throw meaning we should see quite a few 3-2 sets either way. I expect we will see at least 11 sets at the very worst, although I'm not ruling out 12 or even 13 sets tonight and in that time I think we'll see the desired amount of legs. I really can't pick a winner but whatever happens, it should be close. I do think O'Shea will hit more 180's today though and in that, I think he'll reach double figures. In parts against Harms, his scoring was devastating and he hit a total of 13 whilst he managed 8 in 8 sets against Robbie Green. He is scoring really well at the minute and he knows he will have to continue his scoring form tonight in what promises to be the biggest game of his life. Waites hasn't hit too many maximums this week if you disregard that game against Richie George where he went 180 made. The things is though, O'Shea still outscored Waites on the 180 front in the semis. I know Waites didn't play anywhere near as many sets but it's left to be seen whether Waites can score like he did when put under more pressure in his first final. O'Shea has been here before and knows what it's all about however and I think he'll cover the line and in turn, hit more maximums than Scotty tonight.

    2013 BDO World Championship

    in Darts Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2013 BDO World Championship And just the one final bet for me in the women's final. Anastasia Dobromyslova (Highest Checkout) vs Lisa Ashton- 3/4 Boylesports- (3/10) Quite like the Russian's chances in this market. For me she should be the one who settled the better of the two as she's been in the final before and already this week she has taken out some decent finishes. A 144 checkout to win her first match and finishes like that aren't uncommon for the Russian given just how talented she is. Ashton's highest finish this week has been 120 but I think with the occasion, the Russian will settle the better and deal with the nerves better and taken out the biggest finish in the game here.

    2013 BDO World Championship

    in Darts Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Not exactly sure of the order of play today so I'm just putting all my bets up. Effectively on Harms to beat O'Shea at 8/1 and Anastasia to win the women's final at 10/3 so hopefully they can both pull through. Taking a few others as well in what should be cracking viewing today. Tony O'Shea vs Wesley Harms- Under 13.5 180's- 10/11 Boylesports- (3/10) Harms Highest Checkout- Evens Boylesports- (3/10) Highest Checkout Over 132.5- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Hopefully the Dutchman can make amends for his narrow defeat at this stage last year and if he continues playing the way he is, he has every chance here. It should be a close affair you fancy, but the 180's line looks high to me. I know Harms really upped his scoring against Darryl Fitton, hitting 6 180's in that game but you have to wonder if that was just a one off. Perhaps it wasn't however and even if he did manage a similar number today, it would still require Tony O'Shea to hit 8 himself which although he managed against Robbie Green, he didn't manage that number at all 12 months ago nor has he hit as many 180's this year. When these two played last year in that close semi final, there were only 10 180's that day in 11 sets of darts so to me this line looks a bit high. Also completely agreed with Russ on the checkout front. Harms has been finishing this combination finishes for fun so quite how he warrants the underdog status in this market baffles me. He's hit finishes of 140 and 150 amongst a few others whilst I think O'Shea has managed just the one high finish of 161 but hasn't too much else to show. Harms has to be the favourite in my eyes to hit the biggest finish and that finish I expect to be higher than the line has it here given his recent few matches. Scott Waites (-3.5 sets) to beat Richie George- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Highest Checkout Over 130.5- 8/11 Boylesports- (4/10) Kev has really said all there is that needs to be mentioned about this one. It would be an absolute fairy tale if Richie George could reach the final on debut but I don't see it happening. He will need to add at least 5 points to his average here if he is to trouble Waites and I don't know if he has that game in him at the minute. Waites will average low 90's you fancy, no lower and will hit his doubles better than Richie despite Waites being a little clumsy on them this week. He'll always score well though and with the possibility that Richie might be a little fatigued from that game against Dekker last night, think Waites will make it through to the final with plenty to spare. Again I'm taking the overs in the checkout market. Waites hit a 152 yesterday as well as a couple of other decent finishes as well and he is always likely to take out a big one. George has also taken out a few 100+ checkouts as well and somewhere along the line I expect one of these two guys to take out a sizeable finish.

    2013 BDO World Championship

    in Darts Predictions

    Posted

    Re: 2013 BDO World Championship Didn't see any of the games tonight so can't comment but looks like George fell 1 180 short of the line whilst Dekker decided tonight was the night he was a 180 train which is annoying. Anastasia is through to the final though with Kev's pick as well which is good for the thread. Slight profit thanks to Jennings hitting more 180's though, and it takes me to +20.72 going into the final weekend of World Championship darts.

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