fishy25
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Re: 2013 PDC World Darts Championship Onto tonight's matches then. Might take a couple more later on which I'm still deciding about as well. These for now though... Andree Welge (-1.5 legs) to beat Leung Chung Nam- 8/11 Blue Square- (5/10) Going to be completely honest, I don't know an awful lot about the Asian man here and I do just feel that the arena and atmosphere will be too much for him tonight. Never playing on this stage is a daunting prospect even for the experienced players making their debut at Ally Pally so I have to go with experience tonight. I fully expect Welge to win this one and meet Kevin Painter in the final game of the evening and I don't think he'll drop more than 2 legs in this one. The German has experience of playing on this stage to full back on and he very nearly beat Colin Lloyd a couple of years back, narrowly losing 3-2. He has beaten decent players on the tour already this year including Mark Webster and Brendan Dolan which shows he can play. We've seen over the past couple of years just how good the German darts system is and how strong the players are and I'd be surprised if Welge had any real struggles in this one. Robert Thornton vs Magnus Caris- Under 15.5 legs- Evens BetVictor- (3/10) Already spoken about the Scot in my outrights and I struggle to see him being pushed very far in this one. Magnus Caris has been around for years and was extremely unfortunate that the crowd got involved in his match last year against Steve Beaton. But for that, he surely would have won that match but if his recent form is anything to go by, it's hard to see him putting in a similar performance this year. 6-0 whitewashes to the likes of Jamie Caven and Brian Woods recently leave a lot to be desired really whilst Thornton is having the year of his career. The Scot is at least a couple of levels above the guys who have beaten Caris recently so I'd fancy the Scot to have this one over and done with in routine fashion. Kevin Painter vs Andree Welge/Chun Nam- Game with Highest Checkout of Night- 5/1 Bet365- (2/10) First of all I expect this to be against the German as I've already said but I do quite like the price for the highest checkout coming in this match. Painter in the last year to 18 months has been finishing better than ever and hitting many ton plus checkouts. His form this year hasn't been great granted but he did make the quarters at the Grand Slam which will have given him confidence. Welge, providing he wins his qualifier will secretly fancy his chances against the Artist given Painter's pretty poor season and this could really be the game of the night IMO. I've spoken about how strong darts is over in Germany now so we should see a couple of real quality players going at it and I think 5/1 is overpriced on one of these two nailing the highest checkout of the night, especially when you consider the form of Lewis and Nicholson this year.
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Re: 2013 PDC World Darts Championship Essays are almost done for Xmas meaning I can finally get back into the swing of things after missing a couple of the darts tournaments. Seem to remember last year the darts went particularly well for some of us on here so let's hope for the same again. :ok I'll stick my outrights up first an then follow them up with tonight's bets. Simon Whitlock to win PDC World Championship- 14/1 Sportingbet- (1.5/10 E/W) 1/2 1-2 Simon Whitlock to win 2nd Quarter- 9/4 William Hill- (3/10) I picked Lewis last year and I'm hoping the plucky Aussie can make it 2 years in a row for me this year. Whitlock has had a really good 12 months since making the semis here 12 months ago and I see no reason why he won't be challenging again this year. You may remember that he was blowing players away last year and that was with him basically standing on one leg and he seems to have really found his best darts this year, especially in the big events. He has finally got that Major under his belt now with the win at the European Championship, whilst he pushed Taylor in the final of the PL, won various events throughout the year and comes into Ally Pally in decent form after making the semis of the Players Championship a couple of weeks ago. His scoring throughout the year has been extremely impressive whilst his finishing is generally pretty solid as well. He does have to overcome a tricky quarter, as well as being in Taylor's half of the draw but it's no longer a formality that the Power will even make it out of his quarter which gives Whitlock every chance. It's been a wonderful year for the Aussie and I'm backing him to go one, if not 2 steps better than last year and get his hands on the trophy this year. Brendan Dolan to win 2nd Quarter- 33/1 Boylesports- (1/10) Although I really do fancy Whitlock, I just feel Dolan is a tad overpriced here considering the year he's had. Granted he has down very little on the big stage at Ally Pally, and last year I was in the crowd where he absolutely shocking and couldn't hit a double but he seems to be over that problem now and back to back semi final appearences in the Grand Prix and then the European Championship really suggest he can handle himself on the big stage now. There are a few big players in his quarter, with the likes of Barney, Chisnall and Whitlock but he's beaten the big players in the past and I'm happy to back him just in case Whitlock doesn't see this quarter off. Robert Thornton to win PDC World Championship- 40/1 Boylesports- (1/10 E/W) 1/2 1-2 Robert Thornton to win First Quarter- 10/1 Boylesports- (1/10) No way I'm having the Scot at this price, even if he is in the tougher half and even if he'll have to beat Taylor. Sound familiar? Having promised so much from his BDO years, 2012 has really been a breakthrough year for the Scot and he's really shown everyone what he's all about and why he promised so much. He was superb in the UK Open and didn't let anything stand in his way en route to the trophy and since then, he's really played well. He's found that consistency that was missing and with the scoring power he has, he can really blow anyone away on his day. His finishing which was always his weakness is pretty solid now as well and like I mentioned, when he is on song with his scoring, he will always give himself chances and with that major behind him, a bit like Whitlock in that respect, I'll see just how far Thornton can go on the biggest stage of them all. Mervyn King to win PDC World Championship- 50/1 Bet365- (1/10 E/W) 1/2 1-2 Mervyn King to win 4th Quarter- 7/1 Bet365- (1/10) Had to take someone in the bottom half of the draw and to me, it looks a really open draw. Obviously all eyes will be on van Gerwen who has finally come to the reckoning but I'm still not convinced whether he can be ultra consistent on the biggest stage yet. No doubt he'll win this trophy in years to come, but I feel with everyone looking at him now as a serious contender, that might just hamper him a touch. Obviously you've got the likes of Wade and Lewis amongst the bottom half but given Wade's problems of late, and Lewis' problems all year, I can't go anywhere near either of them. I do really like Kim Huybrechts like Kev but instead I'm going to plump for King. As has been mentioned, he's got a stinker of a first round draw against Dean Winstanley but if gets through that, the 4th quarter really opens up for him. On his day, he can beat anyone and has done in his career. Very prolific scorer whilst his finishing is generally on point as well which means he'll always have a chance you feel. He's already made the final of the Grand Prix this year, as well as making the quarters in the Players Championship which should give him confidence. The personal problems seem to be behind the King now and I'll back him to go well this year. Simon Whitlock Most Tournament 180s- 13/2 Bet365- (2/10) Robert Thornton Most Tournament 180s- 33/1 William Hill- (1/10) Mervyn King Most Tournament 180s- 50/1 William Hill- (1/10) I'm sticking to my three guns in this market as well. I've spoken in detail about all 3 of them. All are very heavy scorers and I fancy them all to have decent tournaments really. If one could make the semis at the very least, given their scoring nature, they should have a chance in this market and I think one of these guys could bring home the goods in this market.
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Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Not much I can say really. An agonizing 1 run short of a probable full house with Bell surely man of the match had Carter knocked off that final run. Something like a +18pt swing off just that final ball which is pretty hard to take, especially when Kev almost nailed a 14/1 winner, but I finish on +10.55pts for the tournament in what has been a really good summer of cricket across the threads here. :ok
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Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Last match of the rain infested domestic season then so hoping to go out in a bit of style. I'm on +8.38 for the tournament with Lancashire going the same way as Sussex did in the T20 semi final for me annoyingly. I'm taking 5 in the final though to hopefully push that figure up a touch. Warwickshire to beat Hampshire- 10/11 BetVictor- (5/10) I'm on the Bears band wagon as well today and the two absentees of Mascarenhas and Briggs are huge huge blows for Hampshire and it does really leave their bowling extremely thin and a tad inexperienced. It's not as though they will be bowling at a weak batting lineup either when you consider Warwickshire bat right down and Ian Bell returns for them at the top so you'd definitely fancy Warwickshire to pile on the runs today. They've got their overseas spinner Patel available as well which is a boost for them, whilst Neil Carter will be looking to go out in style ahead of his retirement. Hampshire's loss to Derbyshire yesterday wouldn't have done their confidence any good really and despite resting the likes of Katich and McKenzie, Warwickshire look to have the better team on paper today with their England boys back in Bell and Woakes, and in that, I expect them to complete the domestic double today. Over 41.5 Boundaries- 5/6 William Hill- (7/10) Not interested in the 6's market today but instead I'm opting for the boundaries as this line looks way too low to me. The conditions at Lord's today should be perfect and I do expect us to see a plethora of runs today. I've spoken about Briggs and Mascarenhas who are missing for Hampshire, so one would expect Warwickshire to have no trouble in scoring plenty of runs like they've been doing all season. Hampshire have plenty of quality batsman on show as well in Adams, Vince, Carberry, Ervine, Katich and McKenzie so they'll be able to make the most of what should be a cracking wicket as well. Middlesex in their final one day match here a month or so back hit around the 280 score here, scoring plenty of boundaries in doing so and if one side gets around 250, on this wicket that could quite easily cover 3/4s of the total required here. In the recent ODI on the ground, there were 40 boundaries in total but England rather cruised to chasing down the runs and they could easily have notched it up a couple of gears. Both teams have plenty of batting talent though and with the sun beaming down today, I fully expect us to see at least 42 boundaries in the final. Ian Bell (-0.5 runs) to beat Michael Carberry- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Now whilst I highly rate Michael Carberry as a batsman in all formats of the game, Ian Bell is still on a different level to him and indeed to most guys in world cricket, let alone on the county circuit. For some time now, he's been one of England's most consistent batsman and on a big stage like this, you do really expect him to fire and make some runs. He scored well in the recent one day series against South Africa including 88 at Lord's against a much better attack than he's going to be facing today. Out of the pair here, he'll be facing much the weaker of the two attacks given Mascarenhas and Briggs are missing and despite Carberry being a class batsman in his own right, I have to back the better player here with such a small handicap on offer. Ian Bell Man of the Match- 9/1 Ladbrokes- (1/10) Neil Carter Man of the Match- 20/1 Ladbrokes- (1/10) I've already spoken about how I expect Warwickshire to win today so there's some logic in backing a couple of their players who I think will go well today. I've mentioned Ian Bell already and it's understandable to see why he's the favourite in this market but that's not putting me off backing him. He recently scored 88 on this ground against the likes of Steyn and with a brief chance of playing for his county where he learnt his trade, I'm sure he'll be wanting to show just how good he is on the big stage and help his side to the win today. I'm also going to back Neil Carter as well. This is his final match before retiring so there maybe a chance that if he takes a couple of wickets, given it's his last match, he may be favoured a touch here given what he's done for Warwickshire in the past. He's not really played a great deal this season, but the 2 CB40 games he has played, he's taken 4 wickets a piece in them including against Lancashire in the semis and no doubt he'll be wanting to go out with a bang today so having a little punt on the veteran as well today.
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Re: County Championship 2012 First of all I'll congratulate Kev on the Compton and Onions shouts. 2 good outrights coming through for you mate. :ok On a personal note, it's been a decent campaign albeit with a few of the outrights going a bit wrong with England call-ups and the Surrey incidents that rocked their season understandably so. From the 4 day format though, it's a final standing of +28.19pts which I'll take with everything considered. I will beat Kev in one of the 3 tournaments next season. ;):lol On a serious note though, massive congratulations to the big man for the success this year, and a little bit like the Chris Moyles Show today, I'll be sad when it's all over tomorrow. Let's go out with a bang hopefully. :ok
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Re: US Open 2012 Yeah top shout Mirage. :clap Really feared for the worst at the start of the fifth but credit to Murray. Should go on from here and win a few.
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Re: US Open 2012 Just when I was hoping for a change in fortunes, a flipping tornado hits New York leaving behind ridiculous amounts of wind and the two players are serving at speeds which I can hit :wall.
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Re: US Open 2012 Taking a couple for the first semi including a second max bet of the tournament for me. Tomas Berdych (+4.5 games) to beat Andy Murray- 5/6 Stan James- (5/10) Over 21.5 Aces- 4/6 Ladbrokes- (10/10) Quite happy to back the Czech in some capacity in this one and I don't think he'll be without chances to win this one. Murray bounced back really well to be fair against Cilic but for the first hour or so, he was shocking and he simply can't afford to do that against an in form Berdych. His run reminds me of Wimbledon a couple of years back where he beat Federer and then did Djokovic in the semis as well comfortably but the fact is that when he is in good form, he's an extremely hard man to beat. He's had a much tougher draw than Murray and still he has come through in the more comfortably fashion of the two so he'll be full of confidence coming into this one. Whether the early time suits Murray I'm not sure as it's not something he used to so he could well start slowly again like he did against Cilic. There's the argument that the slower court of Ashe may suit him but it's worth nothing that Berdych has never lost to Murray on a clay court so I don't know how much that suits him at all really. Berdych will still be allowed to generate power in his shots and that win over Federer on this court will have done wonders for his confidence. Most places are offering just the (3.5) handicap so the extra game here is appealing and even if Berdych does fall short, I expect him to run Murray extremely close today. Also going in heavily on the overs for this ace market as the line is ridiculously low by the looks of things. In all honesty, the only way I don't see it being covered is if one of the two guys simply doesn't show up and is beaten in 3 but I expect a really close run thing and at least 4 sets coming in that time. When you consider Paddy Power have this line around the (26.5) mark, it shows how low this line is. Both can chip away at this line and it would only need both guys to hit 11 aces a piece to cover the line and tbh, I'd expect at least one of these guys to go closer to the 15 mark really. Murray's the better returner but Berdych can still rack up the aces whilst Murray should be able to do the same and there's no way I don't see this line being covered.
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Re: US Open 2012 Game didn't really go to plan but in saying that, I'm a bit unlucky not to have come out of it with a bit of profit considering one of Sharapova's shots was way out when it was 15-30 in the 8th game of the final and the correct call would have meant Azarenka broke. The lucks not really been there over the past few days or so and that's underlined by Wawrinka retiring in the third set when Djokovic was going to comfortably cover the unders. :eyes Anyway, heading into the final weekend, I'm sitting on +16.84 which could easily be a lot higher but hopefully the next couple of days will make up for it. Just waiting for Azarenka to break and narrowly miss out on the handicap now. Sums it right up. :lol
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Re: US Open 2012 Will update the P/L a bit later but I'll cover the first match quickly as the markets close soon. Victoria Azarenka (-3.5 games) to beat Maria Sharapova- 5/6 Stan James- (5/10) Maria Sharapova (-2.5 aces) to beat Victoria Azarenka- 4/6 BetVictor- (5/10) Victoria Azarenka 1st Service Break- 8/11 Stan James- (6/10) There's certainly no love lost between these two so expect heavy screaming and a lot of looks over the net but it's a match which I have to back Victoria Azarenka in. In recent times, she's dominated Sharapova really and she's won the last 4 matches on the hard courts in straight sets including over in Melbourne at the start of the year. Although the scoreline doesn't suggest this, she was actually pretty comfortable against Stosur and you felt she would always have enough in that one. Sharapova was less convincing and whilst you can understand dropping a set against the Aussie, dropping one against Bartoli in the manner that Sharapova did is pretty poor really and she was fortunate that the rain came to be honest. She's gone back to that thing of double faulting in most service games and her powerful game really suits Azarenka. Victoria's returns are far superior to anything that Sharapova has faced so far and that's a problem as she won't be able to hit through Azarenka today. She'll serve plenty of aces, but alongside that will come plenty of doubles which you really can't do against the number one so I think Azarenka will win with a bit to spare today. I've spoken about the Russian's serve and she'll outserve Azarenka on the ace front comfortably one would feel hence the handicap I'm taking, but plenty of doubles and her rhythm just hasn't impressed me over the past couple of weeks so I'd expect Azarenka to break through early on and dominate a bit today.
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Re: US Open 2012 And the men's matches as well... Richard Gasquet to beat David Ferrer- 11/4 Bet365- (2/10) Richard Gasquet (+6 games) to beat David Ferrer- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) As much as I hate to go against Ferrer, I think he's slightly overrated here really. It's a bit weird that I spoke about the 2 women's matches and factored in the importance of the H2H and now I'm backing a guy who trails this H2H 7-1 but I do think he's got a chance here. Ferrer has said he's a little bit tired and not playing at his complete best right now and you could see evidence of that against Hewitt. He was pretty sluggish on break points in the first set which is something you don't really associate with Ferrer and in the end he was a tad fortunate that the Aussie ran out of steam as Hewitt had the momentum for a good while and missed a ton of set points in the opening set. Gasquet has impressed me as well and he's beaten everyone he's played so far extremely comfortably really and is in decent form after beating Berdych, Fish and Isner a few weeks back in Toronto. He's been serving well which will be key here as if he can serve well, he knows he will always get chances on Ferrer's serve so there's always a chance for the Frenchman. Gasquet kept things close with Ferrer on clay earlier this year when the Spaniard was playing better than he is right now so with the odds this high, I'll back the Frenchman to go well today. Janko Tipsarevic (-3.5 games) to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) I went with the Serb in the previous round without success but I'll back him to make amends today. It's more against the German this bet really given the amount of tennis he's been forced to play last week. A long 4 setter against Llodra and then another epic against Paire in the second round which went the distance. Isner than lost in 5 to Kohli in the boiling heat and although he's had a day off, I can't imagine he's 100% coming into this one and fatigue could well play a part in this one. On the other side, Tipsarevic has won his last 2 matches in 3 sets so he'll be far the fresher player in this one. He's already beaten the German so far this year over in Germany and although Kolhi might have the legs to take a set, I expect at some point he'll start to fade and Tipsarevic will win in the end with a bit to spare. Stanislas Wawrinka vs Novak Djokovic- Under 31.5 games- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) Prefer the unders here to the overs as the unders would cover something like a 6-4 6-4 6-4 or a 7-6 6-4 6-2 which the handicap won't. I can't really see Wawrinka taking a set of the Serb though given the way both guys are playing. Particularly Djokovic who has been really impressive when I've seen him last week and he's not yet dropped more than 3 games in any set in his 3 matches. Wawrinka should test him a bit more but I still don't think he's playing well enough to cause Djokovic too many problems. He was extremely fortunate that Dolgopolov played as badly as he did in the last round and in all honesty, Wawrinka didn't have to do anything really given how badly Dolgo was playing. Djokovic will be far more consistent and won't make anywhere near the same amount of errors whilst his serve has been working extremely well. Wawrinka will throw in an extremely loose game on serve at times and that's where the Serb should pounce. He's not dropped a set to Stan in the past 3 meetings and even if there's a tie break somewhere along the line, Djokovic should take at least one set comfortably enough which providing he doesn't drop a set which I don't think he will do, he should do enough to cover the unders.
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Re: US Open 2012 Again nothing really stood out to me yesterday so avoided it. Taking a few today and I'll do 2 separate posts just so I get them written up in good time. Will cover the 2 women's matches first and then the men's in the second post as they start a little later. Victoria Azarenka (-4.5 games) to beat Sam Stosur- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) Happy to back Azarenka here and the H2H speaks volumes for this one really. 6-0 in favour of her and in that time she's not dropped a single set which tells its own story really. She'll be able to deal with Stosur's power and she'll look to use that to her advantage and dictate the play really. She's not had any problems in her 4 games so far so she'll be fresh whilst Stosur was actually a tad fortunate that Robson didn't push her more as the young Brit missed shots on key points. Azarenka won't do that though as she's proven to be one of the most consistent girls on the tour now for some time and rarely makes mistakes during her matches. As I've said, the H2H massively favours her and I'd be surprised if she has any problems with the Aussie today. Maria Sharapova (-5.5 games) to beat Marion Bartoli- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) Another pretty poor match up for one of the girls here and it massively favours Sharapova really. She's in much the better form out of the two and she leads the H2H 4-0 without dropping a set as well. Although Bartoli beat Kvitova, she still dropped the opening set 6-1 which shows how erratic she can be at times. Kvitova is still a little inconsistent as well but Sharapova isn't and she should be able to hit through Bartoli you feel. The Frenchwoman possesses a lot of power herself but her movement really isn't great and returning wise she's pretty average as well. In recent weeks, the likes of Errani and Larsson have beaten her and on a quicker surface, she should be beating both of those players comfortably. Sharapova is probably a couple of levels above her really and although Bartoli may actually keep one of the sets close, I fully expect the Russian to win one of the sets comfortably which should see the handicap through.
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Re: County Championship 2012 I'm back for the final few fixtures of the Championship as well and taking 3 in total this week. Totally agree with Kev on all 3... Northamptonshire to beat Gloucestershre- 4/5 Stan James- (6/10) Much prefer the look of this Northants side over the Gloucestershire side to be honest. There's nothing on this game for either team but that hasn't stopped Northants naming a full strength side except Alex Wakely who is injured but Kyle Coetzer is a sufficient replacement. Their best bowler this season David Willey returns which is a massive boost to the bowling department and it just strengthens the attack which already contains Jack Brooks, Andrew Hall and James Middlebrook. Most of their batsman have been in amongst the runs lately as well so their team looks pretty balanced all round. The same can't be said for Gloucestershire here as they look a couple of batsman short and even the return of Ed Cowan doesn't really help too much in the Championship format. They've included a couple of youngsters in the squad as well and from looking at the two squads, there is a big difference in quality and I'll back Northants to shine through come the end. Kent to beat Derbyshire- 8/11 Stan James- (5/10) I've felt a bit for Kev over the past couple of weeks as Derbyshire can count themselves hugely fortunate to still be top really. They were lucky that the forecast was poor last week whilst the week before, Wayne Madsen hit a huge double century which won't happen every week. The forecast for this game is good though so there's no chance of the weather saving them and I have to back Kent here. It's a huge game for Kent as well as after their win over Leicestershire last week, they will be looking for promotion themselves so they will be up for this match completely. Both sides are pretty much full strength and despite Derbyshire's good form in this competition, at full strength, Kent are still the better side you'd have to say and with Derbyshire's recent form, and the possibility of them just stumbling a touch, I fancy Kent to do them here. Surrey to beat Nottinghamshire- 11/10 Sportingbet- (5/10) I know I backed Surrey for success this year and although it hasn't panned out that way, they are hardly to blame considering everything that's happened with the club this season. I think they have a decent shot of beating one of the front runners in this one though and that's in no small part down to the spinners. This pitch should aid the spinners loads and in Kartik, Ansari and Batty, Surrey have 3 really decent spinners which should cause problems for the Notts batsman. As Kev has said, Samit Patel would have loved this pitch so that's a blow for Notts whilst Michael Lumb and Alex Hales are going to miss parts of the match which leave them light in the batting department, especially if Kartik and Batty are turning it left right and centre. Notts are again without Andre Adams as well which just leaves their side really under strength, especially come the start of day 3. Surrey have KP available as well as those 3 spinners mentioned and with them needing the points, I think they are good value to win this one.
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Re: US Open 2012 First time I've woken up to find a match is still being played but unfortunately Isner couldn't take it but didn't watch the match obviously so can't comment on it whereas Dolgopolov played one of the worst matches I've ever seen and I've seen him play some stinkers before. Terrible stuff from the Ukrainian. Thankfully Gasquet and Roddick won comfortably enough whilst Ferrer just about managed to cover the handicap for the main bet of the day. From yesterday then, and all the outrights settled, it was +9.38 which leaves me on +27.83 heading into the second week. Hopefully it proves to be as profitable. :hope Good calls on the Roddick match Owen :clap
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Re: US Open 2012 Onto middle Sunday then and taking an interest in virtually all of the men's matches today. As it stands, I'm on Gasquet to win at Evens, Isner to win at 5/4, Dolgopolov at 15/8 and also Roddick at 5/4 and of those guys, 3 are heavy favourites so hopefully they do the job like Almagro did yesterday. As well as these, I'm having a few match bets including my first max bet of the tournament... David Ferrer (-6.5 games) to beat Lleyton Hewitt- 5/6 Stan James- (10/10) I know a lot of people are backing the Aussie to roll back the years a bit in this one but I personally don't see it. Both players are fairly similar you could argue in the way they play but there's a few key differences to factor into this one. The first being Hewitt's fitness and condition and after overcoming Muller in around 4 and a half hours, I worry a bit for him in terms of fatigue. Even when 'fully fresh' if you like, he is no way as fit as he used to be and he must still be feeling the effects of that Muller match a touch. Now against some players you can get away with that fatigue but against Ferrer, who will return pretty much everything Hewitt throws at him and move him all over the court, I do fear for Hewitt. Ferrer has dominated Anderson and Sijsling in his matches and with the way both guys play with their big serve, the Spaniard should have plenty in the tank for today. A few years ago, I'd have given Hewitt more of a chance but with the way both players have gone about their tennis this year and for some time now, I have to make Ferrer a big favourite and I think wear Hewitt down too much and win with a bit to spare today. Novak Djokovic (-9.5 games) to beat Julien Benneteau- 5/6 Sportingbet- (6/10) Was thinking about going in a little harder on this one as well but I've held back a little although I expect the Serb to will cosily. Benneteau usually raises his game for the big matches and he's actually got a decent record against Djokovic in the sense that he's kept things close but they haven't met for a while and the Frenchman's form really has dipped a bit since that Federer match at Wimbledon. He was hammered by Federer at the Olympics whilst Istomin and Kubot have beaten him more recently which shows that dip in form. Djokovic looks to me to be extremely motivated recently and those defeats in London look to have really made him focus a little more. He's absolutely blown Lorenzi and Da Silva off court without really playing any higher than second or third gear and the fact that you know there's so much more to come is a little frightening really. I just think with the way Benneteau has been playing since Wimbledon and the fact that Djokovic is going to want to continue his dominance, he'll win this one far more comfortably than some think and save plenty more for the second week. Janko Tipsarevic (-7.5 games) to beat Grega Zemlja- 5/6 Sportingbet- (4/10) Like Tipsarevic here really considering the way he beat Brian Baker in the second round. I thought Baker would push the Serb a little more but the comfortable manner in which he won impressed me and he should be too good for Zemlja here. To be fair to him, the form he's in is superb as he's currently on a 10 match unbeaten run but it has to be said, the level of guys he's played in that time isn't brilliant and Tipsarevic is a huge step up than any of those guys. Zemlja is decent enough though all round, but Tipsarevic is better in all departments really and if you look at Zemlja's results, when up against a guy in the top 20 or so he really struggles and despite his good form, the Serb should take care of him comfortably today. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Stanislas Wawrinka- Tie Break in Match- 4/6 Bet365- (4/10) I'm already on Dolgopolov and hopefully he'll win but this match could go all the way really given both players mental inconsistencies. Both guys have already played a couple of lengthy matches so far ad usually in the slams, these two like playing 5 setters which is the case for some guys so there should be plenty of time for a tie break to pop up. In both of Wawrinka's matches so far there has been at least 1 tie break whilst Dolgopolov played one against Baghdatis is the previous round as well. At times, this should be a bit of a serve fest I feel as both guys possess pretty decent serves which also increases the chances of that 7-6 set. When Dolgopolov won last year on the clay there was a tie break in the match and with the possibility of 5 sets looming, I like the chances of one being played out today. Richard Gasquet vs Steve Johnson- Tie Break in Match- 11/10 Coral- (3/10) Again I'm on Gasquet to win this one already but I'd have the odds for a tie break a lot lower than this really when you consider how Johnson's been playing. He's recently won a challenger event and has 2 impressive wins to his name this week over Ram and Gulbis so he's clearly playing well and he'll use the crowd to his advantage today. Why I think the odds should be lower is because on serve he is very strong and possesses a very good one so he should be comfortable on serve if he continues to play like he has done whilst you fancy Gasquet to remain strong in that department as well. He's already played 3 breakers in his 2 matches so far and with him feeding off the crowd today, I'd fancy him to keep a couple of sets tight enough and hopefully make at least one of them go the distance.
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Re: US Open 2012 That price you got on the tie break is criminal mate. Never getting a price like that now unfortunately but I'd be all over that like a rash as well. As for last night, bit hit and miss really and it was a shame Stephens couldn't win one more game in her match to cover the handicap. Jankovic also had a few chances against Radwanska but just couldn't hold serve enough whilst Murray was dire. If he plays like that tomorrow, he's gone. Almagro won though to take the outright at a handy price so it was +3.34 yesterday taking me to +18.45 for the tournament now.
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Re: US Open 2012 Good day yesterday then so hoping to build on that today. Taking a fair few again as well as effectively being on Almagro at 13/8 today. Andy Murray (-8.5 games) to beat Feliciano Lopez- 21/20 Bodog- (5/10) I really like this match up for Murray. There's very little, if anything at Lopez's disposal to trouble him whatsoever in truth so the match is completely on Murray's racket. Lopez usually picks up a lot of cheap games due to his serve but against a guy like Murray with his returning skills, he simply doesn't get that luxury and when in a rally, he can't really hurt Murray whilst the Brit is one of the best passers in the game. The Spaniard has only taken 1 set off Murray in 6 meetings which shows what a poor match this is for him and 12 months ago at the same stage at Flushing Meadows, Murray ran out an easy winner. Lopez might just keep one set close if Murray feels his way in, but at some stage I'd expect a 6-1 or 6-2 set which should bring the handicap into play nicely. Tomas Berdych (-4.5 games) to beat Sam Querrey- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) Think now is the right time to back Berdych now he's won a couple of matches comfortably this week. He's finally returned to a bit of form over in the US after a disastrous grass court season but comfortable wins over Zopp and Goffin this week as well as that run in Winston-Salem look to have restored his confidence. This match should be pretty match on serve for the majority but the difference lies in that Berdych is a far better returner of serve than the American and is far more consistent in the rallies. Both guys should pick up plenty of cheap points on serve but I'd fancy Berdych to make some inroads on return on a more frequent basis than his opponent. He beat Querrey pretty soundly just a week or so back in Winston-Salem and even if he drops a tight set here, he can still cover the handicap. Milos Raonic (-4.5 games) to beat James Blake- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Think this is the right time to back Raonic with a handicap as well after going against him in his opening game against Giraldo. Again this should be a game dominated by serve but at times these days, Blake can let himself down with some sloppy games and although Raonic isn't the best returner, he's still good enough to take advantage of that whereas it's pretty hard to see Blake getting much success unless it's through a tie break. I'd fancy Raonic to break a few times though throughout the match and that should be the difference and mean he will cover the handicap. When he beat Blake last year indoors, he managed to win one of those 2 sets with a couple of breaks so he may well do that again today but I do think this is the end of the road for the veteran. Jeremy Chardy (-2.5 games) to beat Martin Klizan- 4/5 Stan James- (4/10) A bit like Bartoli yesterday, I'm not particularly keen on backing Chardy with handicaps but Bartoli has restored my faith in French tennis a bit so let's see if Chardy can continue that faith. These two are actually a couple of the form players if you like in the past few weeks given they've both put little runs together in their respective tournaments but I do slightly favour the Frenchman here. Usually you will see him struggle against guys he should be beating comfortably but that hasn't been the case so far and he has dispatched of Ebden and Volandri easily which is good to see if you're a Chardy fan. He's been serving well and confidence looks to be high after beating the likes of Istomin, Roddick and Murray a couple of weeks back. Klizan has 2 really good wins to his name so far this week including that scalp of Tsonga but the Frenchman's serving in that one left a lot to be desired really as he was really off colour. Chardy hopefully won't and he should, if he continues playing how he has done, be a lot more focussed and aggressive from the start. His rally play has been what's impressed me when I've seen him lately and his error count is way down to what it sometimes is. I'm just still not convinced that Klizan is quite at Chardy's level just at the minute. He's got some impressive scalps to his name so far to be fair, but Chardy has more experience at this level and his confidence is reflected in his tennis at the minute. This could well go the distance in truth, but the handicap can easily be covered in 4 or maybe 5 sets if it needs to be and I think Chardy will have just about enough here. A few for the women as well after yesterday's success... Roberta Vinci (-2.5 games) to beat Dominika Cibulkova- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) Despite the 'fixing' claims, I think Vinci looks good here. She's in superb form, currently 7 unbeaten and she's had a really good and consistent season thus far. She fought back well to beat Shvedova which will have delighted her and she'll take confidence into this one with the knowledge that she's beaten Cibulkova twice this year and won the last 3 in total between the pair. In all 3 of those matches she's covered the handicap and she's just generally in a better place with her tennis right now. Cibulkova had her problems against Larsson in the first round which she really shouldn't be having whilst Jovanovski really pushed her as well. She's had a really poor year by her standards really aside from the clay and even recently she's been losing to girls she should be beating comfortably. Vinci though is in a really good place with her tennis right now and I fancy her to get the job done in this one. Jelena Jankovic to beat Agnieszka Radwanska- 19/10 Sportingbet- (3/10) Now normally I wouldn't even consider backing against Radwanska as she's probably my favourite player in the WTA but think she might be prime for an upset here. Jankovic has got a pretty good record against the Pole, 2-2 overall in the H2H but she's taken a set from Agy in both of the matches that she's lost and comfortable sets at that. Right now, you'd have to say Radwanska isn't at that level due to injury and dropping the opening set against Suarez Navarro does suggest that she's not completely right just at the minute. Jankovic has won a few matches recently which she needs to do as she's very much a confidence player and if she can get stuck into Radwanska early today, she might well cause a mini upset here. Sloane Stephens (+4.5 games) to beat Ana Ivanovic- 5/6 Bodog- (3/10) I personally wouldn't be having Ivanovic as such a big favourite here. Yes she's beaten her first couple of opponents easily but in truth she should do and Stephens will be the first real test for her. We can't forget that she recently was double bagelled by Vinci in Montreal and she's not really set the tennis world alight with her form at any point this year so to suggest she's going to beat the talented American comfortably is a bit of long shot in my eyes. Stephens has already tested the bigger names this year and only recently has she taken sets of Radwanska and Bartoli which shows how good she is. Today she'll have the crowd on her side so it'll be interesting to see how Ivanovic copes with that given her mental frailties. 12 months ago here, Ivanovic ran out a 6-4 6-3 winner and I think Stephens has improved a vast amount since then so I'd expect her to improve on her performance from a year ago and push Ivanovic close here. Maria Kirilenko vs Andrea Hlavackova- Over 19.5 games- 21/20 Bodog- (3/10) I just think this line is set a little low. With Kirilenko's matches, rarely is it done and over with quickly and very often actually there is at least one really tight set when she plays. She's in decent form and came into Flushing Meadows with that little run over in New Haven and she's easily beaten Scheepers and Arn so far. Hlavackova should provide a much sterner test though and she must be really high on confidence just at the minute.We've probably all seen the success she's been having in the doubles and that looks to have benefited her singles play as well. She made the third round in Cincinnati which was a good showing and she pushed Kerber in both sets which was impressive to see. This week she's already beaten Zakopalova and Voskoboeva which are two really good wins really for her so she should be full on confidence given her recent results and if she can play like she was doing over in Cincinnati, I think she'll prove to be a much bigger test than the odds and line suggests here.
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Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Didn't even see Kev's posts when I did mine haha. Let's hope both Ervine and Clarke deliver for both of us. :ok
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Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Onto the other semi as well then... Sussex vs Hampshire- Over 6.5 6's- Evens Stan James- (3/10) Over 14.5 Runs in an Over- 5/6 Stan James- (3/10) I'll cover these two bets in one paragraph as much of the same reasoning applies. Basically down at Hove, plenty of runs are generally scored with the outfield lightening quick and the boundaries not particularly long. To go with that, we have an abundance of quality in the batting department on show today with the likes of Prior, Wright, Nash, Goodwin and Yardy amongst other for Sussex, whilst Hampshire have Carberry, Vince, Adams, Ervine and Katich to name a few for them. With all that batting talent, should come plenty of runs and some maximums to go with that. If either Luke Wright or Matt Prior get going, they could almost cover the 6's line themselves whilst there's plenty of other guys who I've mentioned to chip away at the line as well. With the conditions and short boundaries at the ground, the 15 runs needed in a single over doesn't look too much either. Whether it be in the powerplay or towards the end of the innings, on a larger ground you will often see 17 or 18 runs come in an over, and with a batsman friendly pitch down at Hove, I think we'll see 15 runs coming in an over at some point in the match. Sean Ervine Top Hampshire Batsman- 7/1 Coral- (1/10 E/W)- 1/5 1-3 Same price as Clarke and again I don't really get it. With Neil McKenzie back in South Africa, it leaves a little gap in the middle order for someone to anchor the innings and there's no reason Sean Ervine can't do that. He's often a man for the big stage and generally when there's a lot of tension and pressure, he rises to the occasion and produces the goods. He has done that in times gone by and if he gets going today on what should be a cracking pitch, he is definitely no 7/1 shot given he should bat around 5ish today. He made some runs last week in Cardiff in the semi and then top scored in the final which supports that point about him rising to the occasion and with a couple of good knocks behind him last week, I'll pay to see if he can repeat those efforts a week on.
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Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Semi finals are upon us then and should be a cracking day of cricket if all goes to plan. Taking an interest in both games so I'll deal with each game in a separate post. Lancashire (Most 6's) vs Warwickshire- 6/5 Stan James- (5/10) Hugely surprised that we are getting Lancashire at odds against here especially when you look at other bookies who make them the odds on favourite in this market. I'm already on them to win the tournament so no point getting involved in the match betting but I do think they will clear the ropes on more occasions than their opponents today. All through their side they genuine 6 hitters and in the likely top 3 of Moore, Smith and Croft, you have 3 extremely aggressive batsman who will look to make the most of the powerplays. We saw just last week how devastating these 3 can be up the top when they were smashing the Worcestershire bowling attack around the park and they managed an astonishing 16 6's in just 37 overs a week ago. Away from the top 3, you have the likes of Brown, Proctor, Cross and Shahzad who can hit a long ball so there's plenty of guys who can clear the ropes. If you look at the Warwickshire side, there's only really Neil Carter and Rikki Clarke who you would say are natural big hitters and even Clarke doesn't hit that many to be honest. Up the top they have the likes of Chopra, Troughton and Ambrose who are natural stroke makers and won't play the big shots very often and in an ideal scenario, they will hope the mentioned guys take up the bulk of the innings. Lancashire know the conditions a lot better up at Old Trafford as well, and with the far more attacking batting options, I think they will win the 6's battle. Rikki Clarke Top Warwickshire Batsman- 7/1 Coral- (1/10 E/W) 1/5 1-3 I know Kev backed Clarke with success a few weeks back and I'm hoping he delivers the good today as well. I mentioned above how Warwickshire will hope their top 3/4 really get going, but with Chapple bowling at them from the start with the new ball, he is extremely difficult to get away and should pile the pressure on the Warwickshire top order. For that reason and with the depth that the Bears possess in the batting department, I quite like Clarke's price here. He's actually in many people's eyes, mine included, Warwickshire's best one day batsman and once upon a time he was knocking on the England International door. Those days are probably long gone but he's still a fine one day cricketer to have in the middle order and at county level, he's extremely valuable to his side. He can play aggressively and also build an innings if he has to when forced to come in fairly early which makes him a top player. He's top scored a few times for his side this year, and on the big stage of the semi final, I'll back him to show us what he can do today.
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Re: US Open 2012
Yeah I appreciate that mate but it's still not really the right place for it in my eyes anyway.ok sorry. only try to help -
Re: US Open 2012
This really isn't the place for this kind of betting/info. As to your fact of only 3% win money in the long term, I think you'll find that most who contribute in the tennis threads are doing just fine without this kind of info. Maybe you need to know that. :okmaybe you need know what is MAFIA,FIX,INJURED,..ETC and maybe you need know why only 3 % users win money in long terms gl -
Re: US Open 2012
Like tadley has said, we need you to provide reasoning for your picks rather than just a one word answer on who is going to win the match.hello guys, my name is joao today i have 2 bets 99 % sure bets if you follow me today you will be happy i have information, long history,.... my bets : cibulkova - vinci : back cibulkova cilic - nishikori : back cilic trust me !!! -
Re: US Open 2012
You still confident on them 5 fishy? Muggins here backed them all in an accum ( daft I know)' date=' so have a bit of a sweat on :)[/quote'] Haha tasty price on those 5 in an accumulator though! To answer the question though, Almagro should beat Sock tonight but he does have a tendency to let you down a bit the Spaniard when you think he's destined to win but he should come through that one. All the rest are tomorrow with Gasquet and Roddick big favourites against Johnson and Fognini so I'd expect both of those to win as they've played okay so far. The final 2 are a little bit more risky I'd say. Isner/Kohlschreiber will be tight, probably a little more than the odds suggest really but the American has won all 3 matches in the past and is on a 7 match unbeaten streak whilst Kohli narrowly scraped through against Paire yesterday in an epic. Might be suffering from fatigue perhaps but with the H2H the way it is, I'd probably fancy Isner to come through that one. I'm going to be honest, God knows what's going to happen in the Dolgo-Wawrinka match. Both have such mental frailties that you'd be a brave man to back either. I personally wouldn't be having Dolgopolov as the underdog like some bookies do considering he bagelled Baghdatis in a set yesterday and won in 4 and his form has improved recently. Getting involved in picking a winner in Wawrinka's matches is a bit like playing darts blindfolded. You never really know what to expect which is why I always tend to pick the overs in his matches as they are rarely straight forward, especially in the slams. Just about got past Darcis yesterday, should have been more comfortable than that but that's what you get with Stan. Dolgopolov beat him last year on clay when he was the underdog so that's why I don't really get why he's the slight underdog especially when both are so erratic at times. If you wanted, the Ukrainian would be the only one I'd be a little ify about in the accum so you could lay him and guarantee a profit providing the other 4 win like they should. That's not personally how I bet as I like to let my bets ride and I do think he'll have his chances to win. Think the price I got on him was 15/8? Something like that so there's a chance to lay off for a profit if you want, but I'm going to have faith in him to come through. Hope that helps mate. :ok
2013 PDC World Darts Championship
in Darts Predictions
Posted
Re: 2013 PDC World Darts Championship Have taken a few more tonight. This one... Paul Nicholson vs Co Stompe- Under 6.5 180's- 8/11 Blue Square- (5/10) Have this one down as a pretty scrappy affair tbh and I'm not entirely confident in picking a winner. I do however like the unders on the maximums given how both have struggled this year. Neither guy has set the world alight this year and I expect a few nerves to be about when they come onto the stage. Stompe has been struggling for a while now with all sorts of issues whilst Nicholson has admitted he struggles early doors in tournaments. This could easily be a 3-0 to either guy given the inconsistency of both but whatever happens, I don't think we'll see 7 180's in this one.