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fishy25

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  1. Re: July 9 - July 15 I'm going to take a little break from the tennis after a pretty hectic few weeks with the French, then Queen's and Wimbledon so taking a couple of weeks off. Well off from the match bets but I am going to take some outrights for interest sakes in case anyone is looking for some small punts. Having 3 in total this week like Czech... Aleksandr Dolgopolov to win ATP Umag- 9/1 Stan James- (1/10 E/W) 1-2 1/2 With Czech with regards to the Ukrainian over in Umag this week. He's the defending champ this week so he's defending plenty of points and that might just click him into gear a bit after his recent poor form. He's already made the quarters of a masters event on clay this year, beating Tsonga in the process which shows just how talented this guy is and despite looking like a chump on the court for a few weeks, he can produce some really good performances and tends to enjoy playing on the clay. He'll actually have to play some decent players if he is to retain his title but that might just suit him and give him some confidence should he win a couple of matches and with the points he'll be defending this week, this might just be the week he returns to some form. Sam Querrey to win ATP Newport- 14/1 Stan James- (1/10 E/W) 1-2 1/2 Quite like the look of the American's draw here. The fact that this tournament is played on grass should really suit Querrey after he enjoyed a pretty good grass season over in London and that should have given him confidence. Beating Raonic especially would have done him the world of good after a pretty rough year or so with injuries but his serve was working well and the more he played, the more convincing his ground strokes became. Although he's unseeded for the tournament, his draw doesn't actually particularly taxing in truth. The fact that Isner and Raonic are in the top half heavily favours Querrey, and his draw of something like Bogomolov-Dancevic/Sela-Istomin-Nishikori really won't have Querrey worrying too much as he knows he can beat all of those guys. If he gets to the final, he's actually got a pretty good record over both Isner and Raonic so he'll fancy his chances there but with the form he has coming into the tournament, I'll back him to well on grass once again this week. Juan Monaco to win ATP Stuttgart- 4/1 Bet365- (2/10 E/W) 1-2 1/2 Surprised to see just how high the price is on Monaco here really. He's back on his beloved and familiar clay now after his third round efforts in SW19 and on clay, there's actually not too many players better than him outside the top 4 and Ferrer. The Argentinian has had a really good season up to this point, winning 2 events on the clay whilst making the semis of a masters event on the hard courts which was a fine effort by Monaco and now he's back on his best surface, he'll really be up for this week. The only player I'd perhaps be a little worried about in Monaco's half is Tommy Haas but Monaco has won the last 3 matches between the two and they were on the hard courts, so I'd have Monaco a really big favourite on the clay in all honesty despite Haas' really good recent form. Monaco is a real class act on the clay and I actually can't look past him this week.

  2. Re: Wimbledon 2012 Livescore Thread Yeah much better player won on the day. Only time when I get emotional is when I see tennis players cry at the end of the tournament. :lol Back to number 1 though, fantastic effort. Would be so fitting if he won the Olympics in a few weeks. The only vacancy in what has been a sensational career. :notworthy

  3. Re: Wimbledon 2012 Livescore Thread Could sense the break coming there. Whenever I hear Andrew Castle's voice, I just automatically think about his really hot daughter who came into my presence whilst watching Celebrity Pointless. May have searched for her on fb a little while later, only to see she was in a relationship. Only thing I cling to is that she went to school where my bro teaches at. Fate or what?? And just a little hello to Georgina if she's reading this. :hope

  4. Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Bit like the tennis really, happy to sit back and just watch the cricket today in what should be a thrilling and tense day. That means after the group stages, I'll take +22.77 into the quarters after Sussex topped the group.

  5. Re: Wimbledon 2012 Can't find anything worth taking for the final in truth so happy to just sit back and watch it. Could see either player winning tbh which makes me stay away from any bets. I'll happily take the +14.49pts profit for the tournament which should have been higher really and sit back and enjoy what should be a cracking final. GL to all that get involved. :ok

  6. Re: Wimbledon 2012 Super doubles final there, really chuffed for Marray. Played superbly throughout and such a great story for the wildcards. Women's final earlier was actually pretty entertaining as well which looked unlikely after the first set. Could see Serena get tight towards the end of the second but managed to find her ground strokes again in the final set. With regards to the bets, the main ones came through with Serena serving superbly in the final set and on the whole I was a tad lucky or unlucky whichever way you look at it. Serena could have covered the big priced handicap if she won the second set comfortably like she looked like doing but then the ace handicap wouldn't have come through so not too disappointed overall. Decent day though, with +8.09 coming out of it, taking me to +14.49 for the tournament. Pleased the overs came through for Czech as well today. :clap Whether I'll actually take anything tomorrow I'm not sure yet. Ironically I'm actually a little more excited about the cricket despite being a massive tennis fan. Luckily the tennis starts before the cricket so will probably watch the entirety anyway but I'll have a look at the markets later on to see if there's anything that I fancy.

  7. Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Middlesex just about came through for you there mate. Was listening to the final over on the radio and thought they'd mucked it up but never in doubt. ;) Anyway going into the final day of the group stages, I'll do a quick summary of the ifs and buts and possible scenarios that could happen tomorrow as it's a little confusing with the 2 best third places and everything. My own cricket match has been called off today so got a bit of time to spare and just wanted some cricket involvement. :lol As it stands ahead of Sunday, Sussex have topped the South Group after the rain forced the game to be cut short yesterday down at Southampton and that point also means Hampshire have qualified as well. Now whether they will finish the group in second or third depends on the result against Essex tomorrow. From what I can see, the rain should hold off to allow a result there and if Hampshire win, they will definitely secure second spot. Now if Essex win, they will definitely join Sussex and Hampshire in the last 8 and if they win comfortably enough, they could actually finish second above Hampshire but that will depend on the result and the final Net Run Rate of both sides. Essex have to get at least a point there really otherwise it gives either Durham or Lancashire the opportunity to go through. Now the North Group. Well Yorkshire and Nottinghamshire have both qualified but it's not yet known who will top the group there. Both teams will feel they should probably win their final group matches against Derbyshire and Leicestershire respectively. The weather is of course crucial come tomorrow, and particularly in the North Group given the dreadful weather that was up there yesterday which meant all of the games were called off. The weather looks to be okay up at Leeds so the Yorkshire-Derbyshire match shouldn't be affected much and the game at Nottingham should be okay as well I think. So as far as the top 2 are concerned tomorrow, if Yorkshire win they will progress as group winners but if they were to lose and Nottinghamshire win, Notts will top the group given their far superior run rate. Of course teams want to top the groups to secure a home draw in the quarter finals. Now the Durham-Lancashire game is arguably the game of the day. Have to state that the forecast really isn't particularly great but both sides will want to play tomorrow as if they take a point each, likelihood is that both sides will fail to qualify. Now if there is a result, the losers are definitely out of contention, whilst the victor will have a chance of progressing IF Hampshire beat Essex. If Essex win or even get a point then the result of Durham-Lancashire is irrelevant as they won't have enough points to be one of the best third placed teams. But should Essex lose, then one of Durham and Lancashire should make it into the last 8. The Midlands/Wales/West Group is the tightest of the lot in that any 4 teams from the group can qualify, and any of those same 4 could fail to qualify tomorrow given the way the fixtures lie. As it stands at the minute, Worcestershire, Somerset and Warwickshire are sitting on 11 points, with Gloucestershire on 10. Now the games tomorrow are: Worcestershire-Somerset, Warwickshire-Glamorgan and Northamptonshire-Gloucestershire. Weather wise, the forecast doesn't appear to be that great and I expect all 3 matches to be interrupted at some point but I'd be surprised if there wasn't a result in all 3 matches. Now the first thing to point out is that 3 teams from this group will definitely qualify given the amount of points each side will be on after tomorrow's round of fixtures. What's so fascinating about this group is that any of the top 4 can still go through as group winners. You would have to think if Worcestershire beat Somerset, they will top the group, but if Somerset win that match they will most likely top the group and depending on other results, the losing side could fail to qualify and finish fourth. Warwickshire also have the chance to top the group if they win but they would need a decent swing in the run rates to do that and it's highly unlikely. Now despite Gloucestershire currently sitting in fourth, a point behind the top 3, a win over Northants should see them through providing there is a result in the Worcestershire-Somerset match as if there is, one side will definitely finish on 11 points and a win for Gloucestershire would see them end up on 12 points. The other possible scenario is that if Gloucestershire lose to Northants, the top 3 will all qualify and will battle it out for top spot. The fate of each side is pretty much in their own hands though and it comes down to a win will put you through whilst a loss puts you in serious trouble. So that's pretty much it. Simple really. :lol I'll just do a quick summary as well of what teams need to do to progress tomorrow... Teams that have already qualified Sussex (Top South Group) Hamshire (2nd/3rd South Group) Yorkshire (Top/2nd South Group) Nottinghamshire (Top/2nd South Group) Possible scenarios IF Essex beat Hampshire, they will qualify for the quarter finals and most likely finish in 3rd, knocking Durham and Lancashire out. IF Essex lose to Hampshire, the winner of the match between Durham-Lancashire will progress as one of the best third placed teams. IF Worcestershire beat Somerset, they will qualify and win the Midlands/Wales/West Group. IF Warwickshire and Gloucestershire win as well Somerset will fail to qualify. IF Somerset beat Worcestershire, they will qualify and most likely top the table. IF Warwickshire and Gloucestershire win as well Worcestershire will fail to qualify. IF Warwickshire beat Glamorgan, they will also qualify. IF Glamorgan win however, and Gloucestershire also win then Warwickshire could fail to qualify. IF Gloucestershire beat Northamptonshire they will qualify providing there is a result in the Worcestershire-Somerset match. IF Northants beat Gloucestershire then Worcestershire, Somerset and Warwickshire will all qualify and Gloucestershire won't. Wasn't actually that quick in the end. :zzz

  8. Re: Wimbledon 2012 Hoping for a decent couple of finals profit wise this weekend. May have a cricket match tomorrow (depending on the lovely British weather :eyes) so will post my bets now in case I don't have time tomorrow. Chances are it'll be rained off though but we can hope. Serena Williams (-5.5 games) to beat Agnieszka Radwanska- Evens Ladbrokes- (6/10) Serena Williams (-7.5 games) to beat Radwanska- 10/3 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Serena Williams (-9.5 aces) to beat Radwanska- 10/11 Stan James- (10/10) Agnieszka Radwanska Total Points Under 62.5- 4/5 BetVictor- (4/10) I must be mad on a few counts here. Maybe it's the weather but I've definitely gone mad. To have 4 bets in the final of a slam involving the WTA is just a disaster waiting to happen whilst whenever I seem to heavily back a player with a couple of handicaps they tend to play pretty poorly. (Kerber and Djokovic today are prime examples) Tomorrow though, I really can't look past the American. Despite having her ups and downs in the tournament so far against Zheng and Shvedova, Serena has improved and played really well against Kvitova and Azarenka who she beat comfortably in truth and perhaps should have done it a bit quicker than she actually did. Azarenka fought back well and whilst she is able to make winners and hit with power, Radwanska literally can't. Her game is all about returning as many balls as possible from the baseline but I struggle to see where she is going to trouble Williams. I actually really like the Pole, and find it a little annoying when people say she is just a pusher because I don't go along with that theory as in truth, her first serve is actually pretty effective whilst her drop shots are a joy to see as she can produce them at any time and anywhere on the court. The thing tomorrow, well two things are that she literally just won't have enough time to do much in any of the rallies or on return as we all know how well Serena is serving at the minute, whilst the American will absolutely hammer anything on Radwanska's serve that is short as it won't have any great power. The other really worrying thing for me is the health concerns that the Pole is struggling with. She's been forced to pull out of the doubles and cancel press conferences because of breathing problems and has been unable to speak much in the past few days. Now obviously she'll play, it's her first grand slam final but I really don't like the fact she's going to be playing a player who she really can't trouble unless Williams melts down and on top of that she's struggling to breath as well. It just sounds so worrying to me as Radwanska would have to be playing out of her skin to really push Williams given the way she's been playing and if she's got respiratory problems, I just really fear for her. We've seen just how dominant Azarenka has been over Radwanska this season, and Williams when she's playing like she has been in the past couple of rounds, is a good couple of levels above that. She's serving wonderfully and as good as Radwanska's defensive skills are, I don't think they will be good enough to cope with the American. The H2H shows that with Williams winning comfortably on both occasions, covering both handicaps in the 2 matches as well and although she may get a little tense towards the end, I think this is hers to win, and win comfortably. I'm taking 2 max bets in 2 days which is really unusual but the ace handicap line is way too low and the price is way too high. I'm not actually going to say too much about it as any tennis watcher will know just how much power Serena gets on her serve and how hard it is just to lay a racket on it, let alone return it. Azarenka is an extremely good returner, yet Serena still managed 24 aces in just 2 sets which is nothing short of incredible and it broke her own record. In the 3 rounds before that, she served 23, 12 and 13 aces and it's hard to imagine she won't reach double figures with ease tomorrow which should really see the handicap through. Radwanska may serve a couple, but if Williams serves anything like she did against Azarenka, she could well beat 24 in truth and I'd expect her to cover the (8.5) serve handicap pretty comfortably. The last bet I'm taking involves Radwanska's total points. Now I wouldn't actually mind if she covered this line as it would make the final at least competitive but I don't see it happening. I've mentioned the Pole's health concerns coming into this, but even at 100% she'd do well to stay anywhere close to Williams IMO. She hasn't done it in the previous 2 matches and I don't think it will be third time lucky either. Just to have a look at the stats which put this line into perspective, Azarenka managed 63 points which only narrowly covered the line and she managed to force a tie break which I can't see Radwanska doing. Kvitova won only 56 points and you'd think the defending champ has more weapons in her arsenal to push Williams but she couldn't cover the line, nor could she cover the ace handicap in question as well which strengthens the argument for Williams there. It's actually interesting to point out that Radwanska won just 60 points in her semi against Kerber so even winning comfortably she couldn't cover the line and with Williams likely to be at hand to win with a bit to spare tomorrow, I'll back her to fail to cover the line tomorrow in what is the biggest game of her life, but unfortunately I don't see it being a fairytale result for the Pole.

  9. Re: Wimbledon 2012 Really can't be bothered to have this argument again. Not the right place for it, nor have I the energy to get into it again. Could write in depth about a few of the points you've brought up but chances are you will dismiss them based on today's performance and today alone. Was a superb showing from Federer and what a final it promises to be. That is all.

  10. Re: Wimbledon 2012 Not been a great couple of days for me over in SW19, and Djokovic losing really didn't help. Ironically, the one bet in the Murray match that didn't come through looked like the one which was well set after the first couple of sets. The Scot hit 8 aces after the first 2 sets but then only managed 1 more in the final 2 sets which saw him fall short of the line. Murray's final break ensured a bit of profit from that match but still a poor day for me. Going into the final weekend, I'm sitting on +6.40 which I'm really disappointed about as for the majority of the tournament it's been far healthier. Hopefully the 2 finals will give some opportunities to improve on that figure though. Good call on the Federer score keepsakes, really unlucky on the double as well as it looked superb after the first couple of sets.

  11. Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Yeah the fears are confirmed. Lancashire match is off which is annoying really but they will still have a chance to progress if they beat Durham on Sunday and results go their way. Few other matches off as well so I'm not going to bother getting involved tonight. Hopefully Sussex can secure top spot in their group down in Southampton so I'll just keep my eye on that and wait until Sunday.

  12. Re: Wimbledon 2012

    Think my doubles stint in SW19 is over after the dismal results of today. :lol I'm exhausted so can't really string more than a couple of sentences together right now so what I'll do is write a quick couple of lines about my bets for the semis and then I'll expand on them in further detail once I've woken up tomorrow. First max bet for me of the tournament though tomorrow... Novak Djokovic (-3.5 games) to beat Roger Federer- 5/6 William Hill- (10/10) Novak Djokovic (-5.5 games) to beat Roger Federer- 7/4 Ladbrokes- (4/10) I really can't see past the Serb in this one. He's completely owned Federer of late and despite the scoreline flattering Federer in the quarters, Youzhny is virtually the bend over boy for Roger so you can't read too much into that result. Djokovic hammered Federer in the French without actually playing too well, especially on his own serve and the Serb is just a level or two above Roger right now. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Under 19.5 games- 5/6 Boylesports- (5/10) Was originally going to back Murray on the handicap but I prefer this bet. It covers a lot more than just the handicap, as it would cover a 3 set Tsonga win, (extremely unlikely) and a tight Murray win really. Even if the Frenchman won a tie break and lost another, he could still fall short of this target. I do expect Murray to win pretty comfortably in the end as I haven't been as impressed as I have been in the past with Tsonga and I expect Murray to dispatch of him and set up a final with Djokovic.
    Right I'll expand on these a bit more and taken a couple of additional bets as well. I'm completely in agreement with Atko on the Djokovic front. The (3.5) line is incredibly low and he could cover that in 5 sets if he needed to although I don't think Federer will test him quite that much. The Serb will be so eager to win Wimbledon after what happened at the French and he'll know if he beats Federer, chances are he will take his favourite title for the second year in a row. Federer will simply have to serve fantastically well just to stay with Djokovic as the Serb's defensive skills are way too much for Roger to handle whilst when he attacks, Federer simply won't have any answers as his movement isn't as good as it used to be. Dropping sets to Malisse and Benneteau really isn't good viewing for Federer whilst Youzhny completely goes mentally when he plays Federer. Djokovic won't do that though and he's won the last 4 matches, including the last 3 in straight sets whilst he beat him comfortably in Paris a few weeks back. I really can't see anything but a Djokovic win here and I expect him to run out a comfortable winner hence the maximum bet on the smaller handicap and a smaller punt on the bigger handicap which he is more than capable of covering. Now I expect Murray to be the one standing in Djokovic's way come the final on Sunday but instead of the handicap, I've opted towards the Tsonga game market in which price has actually risen over night. I expect Tsonga to keep it tight for a little while but when Murray starts to be a bit more aggressive I fear for the Frenchman. He's actually not played particularly well in the tournament in actual fact. His serve has been pretty good, although he's offered plenty of chances to Fish and Kohlschreiber in the previous 2 rounds which suggests Murray will get chances. It was actually the German in the previous round who was better from the baseline and I just haven't generally been that impressed with Tsonga recently. Murray finally managed to break Ferrer down in the quarters and the support he will get today should really push him to get the win. He started to hit his ground strokes far better in the last couple of sets against Ferrer, whilst he has been serving really well and Tsonga won't get as many balls back as the Spaniard did which should keep Murray a bit fresher. Tsonga won't enjoy the longer rallies as much as Ferrer, so Murray should look to frustrate the Frenchman and come the end, I think Murray will win this. I prefer the unders here to the handicap as it would cover something like one comfortably Tsonga set, and a couple of tie breaks in a 4 set Murray win which the handicap wouldn't cover. It covers far more than just the handicap and I don't think Tsonga will manage 20 games today. And a further 2 for me in the second semi involving Murray and Tsonga... Over 5.5 Breaks of Serve- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Murray's Total Aces Over 13.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (6/10) Decent stakes for me with these two as the lines look too low to me. The breaks of serve market as regulars to the threads know is a market I really like taking on. Now with these 2 guys who are both really good on serve, you may think why on earth would I be backing the overs given there's a fair chance of a tie break or two? So let me try explaining. Even if there are tie breaks involved here, there's still a chance of a couple of breaks occurring in that set like in both of the sets that were settled by breakers in Murray's match against Ferrer. With Murray, despite serving really well especially in the past couple of rounds, tons of aces in there can still throw in some really poor service games which Tsonga can make the most of and pounce on the second serve if it's short. Murray as we know is probably the second best returner on tour and should be able to, as the match goes on create a fair few chances on Tsonga's serve. In the past, he's won sets 6-2 against the Frenchman which is a couple of breaks anyway and I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw 3 breaks of serve in one set. This line generally tends to be quite low, even on grass with a couple of big servers. The likes of Fish and Kohlschreiber have managed to make some in roads on Tsonga's serve which shows it is far from unbreakable at the minute and I'm happy to back for us to see at least 6 breaks in this one. Also backing the overs on Murray's serve as I don't get why the line is so low. At first glance, it may look extremely high when you consider the Fererer ace line is around the (9.5) line but you have to remember that Tsonga's returning skills are no where near that of Djokovic's or even Ferrer's for that matter, but Murray still managed to serve 18 aces against the Spaniard which is really impressive serving stats. In fact he served 16 aces in the round before against Marin Cilic and when you consider all the rain delays and actually how long that match lasted, 16 is a really good return from Murray's serve. You'd probably expect 4 sets here in all honesty but Murray will know, and I'm sure Lendl will have emphasised the importance of him serving well and although he will throw in some pony service games, he will serve a fair few aces here and I fully expect that number to exceed 14.
  13. Re: Wimbledon 2012 Think my doubles stint in SW19 is over after the dismal results of today. :lol I'm exhausted so can't really string more than a couple of sentences together right now so what I'll do is write a quick couple of lines about my bets for the semis and then I'll expand on them in further detail once I've woken up tomorrow. First max bet for me of the tournament though tomorrow... Novak Djokovic (-3.5 games) to beat Roger Federer- 5/6 William Hill- (10/10) Novak Djokovic (-5.5 games) to beat Roger Federer- 7/4 Ladbrokes- (4/10) I really can't see past the Serb in this one. He's completely owned Federer of late and despite the scoreline flattering Federer in the quarters, Youzhny is virtually the bend over boy for Roger so you can't read too much into that result. Djokovic hammered Federer in the French without actually playing too well, especially on his own serve and the Serb is just a level or two above Roger right now. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Under 19.5 games- 5/6 Boylesports- (5/10) Was originally going to back Murray on the handicap but I prefer this bet. It covers a lot more than just the handicap, as it would cover a 3 set Tsonga win, (extremely unlikely) and a tight Murray win really. Even if the Frenchman won a tie break and lost another, he could still fall short of this target. I do expect Murray to win pretty comfortably in the end as I haven't been as impressed as I have been in the past with Tsonga and I expect Murray to dispatch of him and set up a final with Djokovic.

  14. Re: Friends Life T20 2012 Looks like a full house tonight excluding Tredwell who didn't play in the end so that bet was just voided. Was just the kind of night I needed to kick start the tournament really and +17.10 tonight takes me to +15.77 overall for the tournament. Top shouts by Kev as well. :clap:clap Although I really didn't think that just the single six was going to be enough for Kent but Gareth Batty was the closest to troubling that. :rollin Big few days coming up in the tournament for a few sides and for the outrights. In an ideal world, Lancashire will qualify to keep Kev's outright going as well as the Moore and Croft outrights as well. Croft is top at the minute by a little way but if Lancashire don't make it to the quarters, he could well miss out on the places altogether. They will definitely have to beat Durham on Sunday if not Yorkshire as well tomorrow on TV but the forecast looks absolutely rotten so doubtful there will be any play there tbh. On a more positive note, Sussex look good to top the group and qualify with Luke Wright going well but providing the weather stays decent, should be a cracking few days coming up.:ok

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