[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Heading into the men's semis, I'm sitting on +45.57 which will hopefully improve after today. Literally can't call either semi in terms of picking a winner as both look extremely tight, but found quite a few side markets which I like. Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal- Total Breaks of Serve Over 7.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Novak Djokovic Over 19.5 games- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Over 6.5 aces- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Novak Djokovic to break serve first- 6/5 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Who wins this match is anyone's guess really as Novak seems to have Rafa's number these days and if I had to pick a winner it would be the Serb, but I expect it to be close regardless of the winner. It could easily go to 5 sets and it's hard to see either player winning in 3 so it's hard to see Djokovic winning fewer than 19 games and it should give enough time for plenty of breaks by both guys. Traditionally when these two play, there are a lot of breaks of serve and on the clay as we know, even the men's game resembles that of the WTA in that breaks of serve aren't uncommon. Although both have decent serves, they aren't going to be serving bombs and with the prospect of a classic, we should see at least 8 breaks. Although there should be plenty of chances to break, the weather should mean both can serve a few aces. Djokovic reached doubles figures in the ace count against Tommy Haas whilst Nadal served a few against Wawrinka. Granted both of these two are better returners than who they faced in the quarters, but the hot conditions should make conditions a little quicker and both should be able to hit 7 aces between them. I do feel that the odds are a little wrong for Djokovic to break serve first though as Nadal as been slow in starting pretty much all of his games so far and with the Serb's returning abilities, he is more than capable of earning the first break in the match with the odds above evens which look generous to me. David Ferrer vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Total Breaks of Serve Over 7.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Tsonga Total Games Over 19.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Total Aces Over 7.5- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Pretty similar bets to the first semi really but the lines look really off to me again. This could arguably be even closer than the Djokovic-Nadal match and it's not very often you can say that about a game. Both players have so much at stake in this match and it should be a thriller whoever wins. Tsonga if he keeps playing the way he has been, with that powerful forehand he'll certainly have his chances to win this one but as we know, Ferrer will fight and fight so I think this could really go the distance so Tsonga's game line looks on the low side, in which he could still cover it in 4 sets as well as 5. If the breaks of serve line looked low in the first semi, it looks way out of line in this game. Ferrer doesn't pick up a great deal of cheap points on serve, however his returning is up there with the best in the game so although Tsonga will pick up some cheap points which I'll get to in a minute, the Spaniard will always be a threat on return as Kevin Anderson brutally found out a few days ago. It would be completely understandable if both guys were a little nervous early doors in the match given how much is riding on this game but even if we only got 3 sets out of this match which I don't see happening, we could still get the 8 service breaks but over 4 or 5 sets, I'd honestly expect it to reach double figures. Although Ferrer is superb on return, there will be instances where he won't be able to do anything about Tsonga's serve and the hot conditions will benefit the Frenchman more than the Spaniard. In all honesty, if this went to 5 sets, Tsonga could clear the line in question by himself comfortably, but Ferrer should be able to hit a few himself which makes me think the ace line is too low given the warm conditions. The line seems to be based on Tsonga only hitting 3 aces combined in his past couple of matches, but they were both straight set wins and with the adrenaline pumping today, he should muster up quite a few more than those figures suggest.

[UK Open 6-9 June]

Re: UK Open 6-9 June In this format, I wouldn't go anywhere near the odds offered on him, even if pound for pound he's the best darts player around. Because of the draw system, he could end up with facing Taylor-Barneveld-Wade-Whitlock en route to the final. Think this is the only tournament really where a real outside can win because of the system (Thornton benefited greatly last year).

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Nothing for me today as the markets looks about right so will hold off until tomorrow.

[UK Open 6-9 June]

Re: UK Open 6-9 June Few outrights for me. Won't do massive write-ups as the draw affects so much in this tournament that it's a bit of a lottery anyway. Coral are paying out for reaching the semis so all of these have been taken with that firm. James Wade to beat UK Open- 20/1- (1.5/10 E/W) One man who has gone well in this tournament in the past is James Wade, and he's won this tournament twice before. Doubles are key is this tournament, especially in the early rounds given the short format and you'll struggle to find someone more reliable on their doubles than Wade. His scoring has been better this season as well and at a decent price, I'm happy to back Wade going well this year. Dave Chisnall to win UK Open- 33/1- (1/10 E/W) Chisnall's form in truth hasn't been great, in fact it's been poor but this format might just suit him. Momentum plays quite a big part in this tournament and if Chizzy gets through his first couple of matches, he could really shine through. There were signs in Austria that he wasn't far from hitting some form before he was narrowly edged out by Mervyn King but with Chisnall's scoring power as devastating as it is at times, I'll back him to go well this weekend. Mervyn King to win UK Open- 50/1- (1/10 E/W) King has never made it past the round of 16 in Bolton but his run over in Austria, where he made the final should give him confidence ahead of it. He's run into MVG a few times this year and lost them all which is no disgrace as we all know and without MVG, King would have a couple of titles to his name this season. If he gets the right draw, King could be a real threat over the weekend with his scoring and solid finishing so the high price looks a little unjust on the King. Dean Winstanley to win UK Open- 66/1- (1/10 E/W) Price looks quite high on Deano here. Although he hasn't done anything all year on the tour, this tournament seemed to really spark Robern Thornton into life and establish him as a real force on the tour and Winstanley will be hoping the same thing happens to him. He did manage to beat Barney last month and made the quarters of a floor event so his form has slightly improved but the big thing here is his scoring. If he gets going from the outset, very few can cope with his scoring and I think this format might just suit Deano to a tee. Terry Jenkins to win UK Open- 80/1- (1/10 E/W) Jenkins is one of my favourite players on the tour but his form has been shocking this season so why am I backing him? Well even though he has never won a major, he is still consistent in them and very rarely fails to get to the last 16 or further. He made the quarters here 12 months ago and that was with an extremely tough draw where he beat Winstanley and MVG before Taylor beat him. Jenkins just seems to up his game in front of the cameras traditionally and given the right draw, like so many, Jenkins could surprise a couple of people here. Joe Cullen to win UK Open- 125/1- (0.5/10 E/W) Backing a couple of youngsters at huge prices and the first of those is Joe Cullen. Cullen comes into Bolton off the back of making the quarters in Austria where he beat Kim Huybrechts and Barney and averaged over the 100 mark in that tournament which shows what he can do. Ironically Cullen seems to play his best darts against the better players so the fear perhaps is that he gets a little complacent in the early rounds, but with those performances over in Austria, Cullen will hopefully show what he can do this weekend. Michael Smith to win UK Open- 200/1- (0.5/10 E/W) Not sure what this price is all about really. Michael Smith is the reigning world youth champion but this season, he has already made the final of a floor tournament, as well as a semi appearance as well, losing out to Michael van Gerwen on both occasions. This season he has beaten some top players though in Robert Thornton, Chisnall and Kim Huybrechts and the youngster can absolutely pepper the lipstick and hits 9 darters for fun on the tour. Of course he'd need a good draw, but if he does get the right draw, he could go well over at the Reebok.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Decent day yesterday with Tsonga and Ferrer coming through comfortably. Just the 2 for me today, can't call the men's matches as the markets look about right so sticking with the women. Maria Kirilenko vs Victoria Azarenka- Under 19.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Azarenka has won the last 3 matches against the Russian in straight sets, covering the unders in all 3 games and they were on quicker surface where you expect Kirilenko to get a bit more joy with her power. Azarenka had that little blip against Cornet but hammered Schiavone whilst Kirilenko struggled a bit against Mattek-Sands. Although Kirilenko is yet to drop a set in the tournament, I don't envisage her trouble Azarenka too much and depending on who serves, one break in each set could do the job here. Jelena Jankovic vs Maria Sharapova- Over 19.5 games- 20/23 BetVictor- (4/10) Taking the opposite bet in this game though and I think this could have some legs on it. Sharapova beat Jankovic easily earlier in the year but the Serb is on a decent little run now and has taken a set of Serena recently which not many people do. There's always doubt over Sharapova's serve so always risky backing her against players who can put some pressure on her like Jankovic can do. If one set is really close, that could almost over the over in itself but I think Jankovic will put up a fight here and really test Sharapova for the first time in the tournament.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Nothing much happening today, slight loss but tomorrow will make or break my tournament as you will see... Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to beat Roger Federer- 6/4 Bet365- (4/10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+3.5 games) vs Roger Federer- 20/23 BetVictor- (7/10) Over 39.5 games- 9/10 BetVictor- (4/10) Taking quite a few bets in this one in a match which I really think is Tsonga's to lose more than anything else. He's playing some really good stuff stuff at the minute, and he has completely dismantled Chardy and Troicki in his two previous games. His serve is working well whilst his forehand is lethal right now and he very seldom fails to trouble Federer these days. Quite what happened in Federer's match against Simon I don't know, as he was cruising in the first set before he went missing which is something the great one doesn't do. I know the crowd love him, but they will firmly be on the Frenchman's side tomorrow, something which he isn't too used to. Ultimately despite reputation, it's Tsonga who has looked the more impressive in the past couple of matches and provided he stays strong I think he'll come through this one in all honesty. In saying that, this could well go the distance or at least have 4 tight sets minimum one would think, so the overs looks a decent call to me as well. David Ferrer (-8.5 games) vs Tommy Robredo- 11/10 BetVictor- (7/10) One can only admire what Robredo has done in his past 3 matches, coming back from 2 sets down in all 3 games. Almagro probably should have beaten him in 3 sets in all honesty but that's history. The truth of the matter is I can't see any way possible how Robredo is anywhere near 100% here. It was evident at the end of that Almagro victory how physically and mentally drained he looked and the prospect of playing Ferrer is probably the worst match up possible. Ferrer will simply make him run all day and sooner or later, I expect that to take it's toll. It's draining playing the Spaniard when fully fit, let alone after 3 epic matches and I really do think Ferrer will come through this comfortably in the end. He dominates the H2H and has comfortably beaten Robredo this season, and although many hope for a fairy tale, I fear it may be somewhat of the opposite really. One for the women. Agnieszka Radwanska (-2.5 games) vs Sara Errani- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Can't add too much to what's been said. The H2H is grim reading for Errani, and my main fear is the breathing problems she suffered in the last round. She was slightly fortunate to come out of that game in the end and Suarez Navarro let her off the hook; Radwanska won't. The Pole dominated the match against Ivanovic in all areas, albeit with the Serb self destructing on serve but Agy was still looking good. As I've mentioned, the fitness concerns with Errani worry me really, especially as she's not going to get many free points against Radwanska and in the end I expect the Pole to pull through with a bit to spare.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Little bit unlucky yesterday with various things but was to be expected after the first week. Taking 4 today, in a big rush so really quick write-ups. Mikhail Youzhny to beat Tommy Haas- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) The Russian has won the last 2 meeting, including a straight sets win over in Rome a couple of weeks ago. He was impressive in disposing of Tipsarevic whilst Haas comes into this one on the back of a marathon against Isner. It shouldn't hamper the German too much but for Youzhny should be a bigger favourite. Philipp Kohlschreiber (+8.5 games) vs Novak Djokovic- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) The German usually ups his game for the bigger opponents and he beat Novak here back in 2009 and troubled him in Indian Wells in their most recent match as well. Both guys completely hammered their opponents in the last round so both should be fresh, but I'd expect Kohlschreiber to be a stiffer test than Dimitrov provided. Even if the Serb wins in 3, I think the German can keep it close. Rafael Nadal vs Kei Nishikori- Over 29.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) I can't be backing Nadal after what I've seen from him so far. He hasn't covered the unders in any of his matches and Nishikori is a far better player than anyone he has faced thus far. I do expect Rafa to win, but Nishikori will plug away at the Spaniard and I think he'll take a set, but even if he doesn't, 3 tight sets will do the trick as well. One for the women. Victoria Azarenka (-5.5 games) vs Francesca Schiavone- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Can only see one winner here and I think Azarenka will win it well. She's won both matches on clay comfortably in the past and in the time that has elapsed, the Italian has gotten older and isn't playing as well. She hammered Bartoli but the Frenchwoman has never had the best of times in Paris but coming into the tournament, she'd lost 3 on the trot and I think Azarenka will expose that and win with plenty to spare here.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Few more stand out to me today as opposed to yesterday. Hoping to build on that good first week. Roger Federer(-7.5 games) vs Gilles Simon- 4/5 BetVictor- (4/10) Opposed Simon in his past two matches in some form and I'm going to do the same again today. He really hasn't impressed me much in his home tournament and was fortunate to get past Querrey in the last round who he really struggled with. He's had problems with Hewitt and Cuevas to an extent in the tournament and he'll really need to up his game to cope with Federer. Roger's quietly been going about his business with minimal fuss and overcame a little slip early on against Benneteau to win in straight sets there. He'll be far the fresher player out of the two, even though Simon has had a day off since the Querrey match but his fitness recently has been a bit suspect which may play a part, especially if he goes a couple of sets down. Federer beat the Frenchman 6-1 6-2 only a few weeks ago in Rome and with Simon not impressing so far in the tournament, I'll back Federer to win this one well. Nicolas Almagro (-6.5 games) vs Tommy Robredo- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Don't usually back the Spaniard in slams, in fact very seldom do I do it but think he's worth the punt here. He's still only dropped the single set in Paris which is really good viewing for him as he often goes missing in the 5 set matches but the fact that he hasn't done that impresses me. There's no doubt that Robredo has really been playing some good stuff since returning to the tour but he's played two grueling 5 setter in a row now, both coming back from 2 sets down and I think fitness may just affect him in this match. He's played a lot of tennis this year and seemed to cope with it, but he's yet to play two long 5 setters in a row so I'm not entirely sure how he'll cope today. He may have it in him to keep it close and take a set, but ultimately I do see Almagro winning at least one set comfortably and pull through. He dominates the H2H as well 5-0 and I think he'll have enough about him to see off Robredo with a bit to spare. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-7.5 games) vs Viktor Troicki- 21/20 BetVictor- (3/10) I like the Frenchman here and he's been playing some good stuff in Paris. He's still yet to drop a set and he absolutely dismantled Chardy in the last round which could have potentially been a touch match for Tsonga. Troicki also had a really good win against Marin Cilic but I'm still not convinced by him in all honesty. Gimeno-Traver pushed him all the way and the likes of Nishikori and Gulbis have easily beaten him in recent weeks. There are signs that he's returning to some decent form but Tsonga is a really tough ask for the Serb. In the 2 meetings they've had on clay, Tsonga has won with ease in straight sets and one could argue Troicki was playing better then than he is now. Tsonga will have the crowd naturally and I think he'll win this one cosily as well. Couple for the women. Sara Errani (-5.5 games) vs Carla Suarez Navarro- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) I know Suarez Navarro has caused Errani massive problems so far this year, beating her in the Aussie Open and then taking her the distance in Paris earlier in the year, but on clay I think it'll be a different story. Errani has won all of her matches with ease, including a bagel set against Lisicki which is tough to do. Suarez Navarro however has dropped sets against Halep and Rogers whilst she was pushed bu Puig as well which shows the difference in both women's tennis at the minute. Errani has shown to be one of the best players on the tour, and even more so on clay. In the last month or so, the only women to beat her have been Azarenka and Williams and she's mixed it up with both in a set. The Italian has already beaten her compatriot on the clay earlier in the season and covered this handicap comfortably in doing so. She's playing the much better tennis on the clay right now so think she'll come through this one well. Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Ana Ivanovic- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) Expected the Pole to be a much bigger favourite in this one in a matchup in which she dominates the H2H. She's won the last 6 matches the two have played against one another, two of which have been this year in a couple of high profile events in Melboune and Doha. I know Ivanovic has had a lot more court time on the clay out of the two players, but she was beaten by Radwanska's sister in Rome and then Martic managed to take a set off the Serb in the first round. Although Radwanska's form coming into the tournament wasn't great, she's had no such problems in winning her 3 matches in straight sets and even if she's not at her best, she'll have the insurance of knowing she has the mental edge over Ivanovic. This should be a close game but the H2H speaks volumes to me and both will know how the recent results have gone. Radwanska is far more consistent in the rallies and I think the Pole will come through this one in what should be a decent game to watch.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 A touch fortunate today but I'll take it. Now there aren't any pending overnight, it leaves me on +43.97 for the tournament. Tempted by a few tomorrow, actually all of the ones mentioned by Atko and IAG but something is telling me to hold off so think I'll leave tomorrow and just have an interest as a spectator.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 And the rest of them for me. Andreas Seppi vs Nicolas Almagro- Tie Break in Match- 11/10 Bet365- (3/10) Let's try this bet again then. Was going to edge towards the overs but the price is slightly better on the tie break and I think both will come through in all honesty. Seppi has troubled Almagro in the past, winning both matches in fact but neither match was on clay which is the difference you will when Almagro most likely comes through today. Seppi has struggled in his first two matches whereas the Spaniard has cruised somewhat but this is the kind of game where you expect it to last a while with some tight sets along the way. Seppi has already been involved in 4 tie breaks in the past few days and given how close I expect this to be, I do think we'll see a 7-6 set somewhere along the line. Sam Querrey (+4.5 games) vs Gilles Simon- Evens Bet365- (3/10) Going against Simon again here as I'm still not entirely convinced by him. I backed the overs in his last match which came through after he dropped the first set, and he's already dropped 2 sets against Hewitt as well which says to me he is not backable in the slightest right now. Querrey hasn't had any problems thus far in beating Lacko and Hajek in straight sets and he will get chances in this one as well. He has a decent record against Simon, winning their only previous meeting on clay, whilst although Simon has won the other 2 games, they have both gone to 3 sets so Querrey won't fear Simon here. Obviously the crowd will be rooting for the Frenchman and that might just about see him through, but the American should be able to hold his own here and keep it close. If Simon goes missing for a bit like he can do, Querrey should be able to capitalise so the handicap looks good to me here on Sam. Gael Monfils vs Tommy Robredo- Over 38.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) This could be another thriller like Monfils' previous two games and there's no way I don't see this being really close to be honest. Monfils is playing some really good stuff at the minute, albeit a slight bit lucky that Gulbis checked out towards the latter stages of his previous match. Robredo did will to come back from 2 sets down to beat Sijsling in his previous match and he's also been in really good form in the clay season since returning. I actually can't pick a winner between these two which would suggest that the value is with Robredo but this match should be really physical and grueling and it wouldn't surprise me if it went the distance. The minimum I expect though is 4 sets and if all goes to plan, that should see the overs through. And a couple for the women. Roberta Vinci (-3.5 games) vs Petra Cetkovska- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) Handicap looks a little low for the Italian here. Cetkovska has only played 3 matches all season and they have come in the past few weeks so she's come into Paris massively undercooked. She did beat Pavlyuchenkova in the last round but Pav is wildly inconsistent these days so I wouldn't read too much into that result. Vinci hasn't been outstanding in recent weeks but she is still a few levels about Cetkovska given the Czech's injury woes this year so I'd back her to come through this one with a bit to spare. Bojana Jovanovski vs Svetlana Kuznetsova- Over 20.5 games- Evens Bet365- (3/10) This line against looks on the low side to me. I wrongly went against Jovanovski in her game against Wozniacki but she was pretty impressive in that game despite her recent bad form. The thing with the Serb is when she gets confident and high on momentum, she usually carries that through and plays well so she should run Kuzzy close today by my reckoning. The Russian isn't playing her best tennis either at the minute shown by her dropping the first set against Rybarikova in horrible fashion. Jovanovski should be able to hit through Kuzzy a bit you feel and with both players playing inconsistently at the minute, I think this might be a close one between the two.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Cheers for the words guys. Still waiting on a couple of results but those which were completed yesterday came through so hopefully Sock and Isner can complete the job. Still got those pending but I am taking a few today. Going to do them in two posts though because the first match starts at 10 UK time so will get that up first. Richard Gasquet (-9.5 games) vs Michal Przysiezny- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) Thought a fair bit about this one but in the end I've decided to bite. I wouldn't go near the unders with Gasquet as I don't trust him completely to do that as he is liable to take some time to find his feet, but when he does, he should romp to victory here. He beat Stakhovsky really comfortably in the first round and that bodes well for the Frenchman. Przysiezny will be delighted to have made the second round here after an extremely favourable first round draw but I don't see where he'll get too much joy today. He's been venturing on the challenger circuit mostly this year and when he has tried for the main events, he has failed to win a set before Paris. He hasn't actually played much on the clay this year either, whilst he was hammered to Bagnis a few weeks back. He might have the potential to keep a set close if Gasquet struggles early doors, but with the crowd behind him, I'd expect a couple of really comfortable sets for the Frenchman which should bode well for the handicap.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Couple more as well actually. John Isner (-4.5 games) vs Ryan Harrison- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) I know a few people fancy Harrison here but I'm not so sure myself. I watched a fair bit of Isner's match against Berlocq and he was impressive. Serving bombs, forehand was good and his return of serve was actually impressive as well which was good to see. Harrison has been loitering about on the challenger circuit in the clay season and he's really not beaten anyone of note in that time. The surface doesn't particularly suit him whilst Isner beat him 7-6 6-4 on clay earlier in the year. Should be close in parts but if Isner keeps up his form of the first round, see him winning well here. One Women's match as well. Alize Cornet (-3.5 games) vs Silvia Soler-Espinosa- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) Cornet looks to have found form just at the right time by winning the event in Strasbourg and then winning her first round match comfortably enough. The same can't be said about her Spanish opponent however, as Espinos's form has been extremely patchy and she's lost to some really average opponents in the past few weeks. Cornet is a far better player, and with the home crowd behind her, I think she'll comfortably take this one in all honesty.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Wozniacki let me down yesterday but a slight profit. Will do the P/L tonight when I get a bit more time. Taken a few today today, really quick write-ups though so apologies in advance. Stanislas Wawrinka vs Horacio Zeballos- Tie Break in Match- 13/8 Bet365- (3/10) Breaker bet went well for me yesterday so I'll look to back it again today. This match being the first of those I'll back. Stan was cruising against De Bakker in the last round but as he always seems to do in the slams, went missing for a little bit at the end. Zeballos just about pulled through against Pospisil in the first round and should be able to hold his own in this one as he's pretty decent on the clay. I just fancy this to be a lot closer than the odds suggest as Wawrinka isn't the most reliable guy in the slams and with the prospect of at least a couple of tight sets, think we might see a breaker along the way like both of the first round matches involving these two. Benoit Paire vs Lukasz Kubot- Tie Break in Match- 11/10 Bet365- (3/10) Surprised to see the odds this high for a tie break here in all honesty. Both are pretty powerful players with their groundstrokes whilst Kubot has a big serve which keeps him tight in matches. Paire despite his talent still hasn't convinved me enough to suggest he will run away with matches and with Kubot's serve, this should be a tight one and I think we might see a breaker in this one as well. Jack Sock (+7.5 games) vs Tommy Haas- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) Think the American will have his chances in this one. He's come through the qualifiers for Paris really impressively and beat Garcia-Lopez with ease in the first round so he should be confident. Haas has been in good form as well but whether he's 100% fit I'm still unsure about. He struggled a bit in the first set against Rufin which he shouldn't be doing really, and with Sock's hard hitting, I think he'll keep this close enough the young American.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Full house for me yesterday with the 2 pending women's bets coming through this morning. Some good calls in here as well. Taking just the 3 today and in a rush so I'll do this quickly. Sam Querrey (-4.5 games) to beat Jan Hajek- 4/5 Bet365- (4/10) With Czech on this one and I expected the handicap to be a tad higher. Hajek has done well to make the second round of a slam really but he should struggle here given the quality difference of the two players. Querrey isn't at his best on the clay but he shouldn't need to be in all honesty. Hajek doesn't possess any real weapons that can hurt Querrey and even if there's a couple of tight sets along the way, I expect the American to cover the handicap. Giles Simon vs Pablo Cuevas- Over 31.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) I wouldn't be going backing Simon all of a sudden given the performance against Hewitt. He was 2 sets down in that one as well as almost chocking massively in the final set. Cuevas is a decent clay courter but has struggled a lot with injuries over the past couple of years but he overcame the crowd in the first round in beating Mannarino and that should give him confidence. Simon is still prone to going missing at times in the slams as shown in the first round and I think Cuevas can keep this closer than many expect. One for the women. Caroline Wozniacki (-4.5 games) to beat Bojana Jovanovski- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) A bit tongue in cheek in taking this one as Jovanovski is one of my favourite players to watch on the women's tour. Although she managed to beat Wozniacki a couple of weeks back, it was more down to the Dane throwing it away as she was cruising in the third set before somehow losing the match. Wozniacki played well against Robson in the first round and with that defeat to the Serb a couple of weeks ago, I think she'll win this a bit with a bit to spare in all honesty.

[French Open 2013]

Re: French Open 2013 Finished all of my uni work now so I can properly have a look at the card. Looks like a tricky tournament to call so far but hopefully that evens itself out starting from today. Taking a few. Grigor Dimitrov (-7.5 games) to beat Alejandro Falla- 5/6 Bet365- (4/10) A year or so ago I wouldn't have gone near a handicap as big as this on the Bulgarian, but this year he looks to have really matured and stepped up his game. His recent form as we all know is good as well, beating Djokovic and went close to beating Nadal as well which not many people do in the space of a few weeks. Falla on the other hand has been struggling of late. This season he really hasn't found any notable form, and has won just the one game in the clay court season, losing comfortably to the likes of Kavcic, Seppi and Souza, whilst he retired over in Nice so there's no guarantees over his fitness either. A lot of eyes will be on Dimitrov given his recent form and his junior status but I don't think that will phase him too much. He is in a much better place with his tennis than Falla, and I think even if there's a tight set somewhere in this one, Dimitrov should cover the handicap with a bit to spare. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Dmitry Tursunov- Tie Break in Match- 11/10 Bet365- (3/10) I usually only go near the tie break markets on quicker surfaces but I like the price here given when these two played eachother a few weeks ago, there was a tie break in both sets. Tursunov retired in his last match in Rome but I would guess that was done to ensure he'd be fit for Paris to be honest whilst Dolgopolov was easily beaten by Djokovic in the same event. The thing with both of these guys is that they are massively erratic and inconsistent. Both tend to play out some 5 set marathons fairly frequently when it comes to the slams and what not and given I expect some this one to have some legs, I think there's a decent enough chance we'll see a tie break arising in this one. Stanislas Wawrinka vs Thiemo De Bakker- Over 30.5 games- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) Reverting back to perhaps my favourite bet in the slams so I'm hoping it doesn't let me down. That being the overs in the Wawrinka matches. This year he's really been playing well and impressing me but he's still too mentally fragile for my liking and in the clay season so far he's dropped sets to some pretty average players. Thiemo De Bakker is certainly no world beater but he's got a decent serve and had plenty of match time on the challenger circuit on clay in recent weeks so he should be okay with the conditions. As I've said though, Wawrinka's mind just seems to go awol at times in the slams. 12 months ago in Paris, he played 4 successive matches which went the distance which sort of proves my point really and with some fitness concerns surrounding him as well, I fancy De Bakker to hold his own and cover the overs. And a couple on the women's side of things as well... Arvane Rezai (+6.5 games) to beat Petra Kvitova- 3/4 BetVictor- (4/10) I was actually close to pulling the trigger on Rezai here altogether considering the odds but I have stuck to the handicap in the end. There's been absolutely nothing to suggest recently that Kvitova is in the form which makes her as big as a favourite status as she's been given in this one. Her form on the clay has been poor and highly erratic, as seen in Rome a couple of weeks ago where she was bagelled by Lisicki in the second set. The last 5 matches she's won have all been in 3 sets which shows how she's been really struggling to win matches in a comfortable fashion and she's dropped sets to girls she really shouldn't be struggling to beat. Rezai doesn't have much form to her name as she's missed a fair bit of the season due to injury but in home conditions and with the crowd behind her, she should up her game in this one with the crowd helping her. The bet is more against Kvitova than anything else however. Her form is poor and even if she wins this 6-3 6-3 which I frankly see as unlikely, the handicap should still pull Rezai through on home soil. Jamie Hampton vs Lucie Safarova- Over 21.5 games- Evens Bet365- (3/10) Line looks a game or so too low for me here. Both girls come into this one with some form to their name, as Hampton reached the semis in Brussels, whilst Safarova won a challenger event over in Prague so both will be confident. As regulars to the tennis threads will know though, Safarova is traditionally known for her 3 sets and a prime candidate for the overs markets. She's already shown what she is capable of on the clay, taking Vinci and Sharapova all the way to 3 sets but at times she can go missing which allows opponents in. Jamie Hampton is in good form, but the thing to note is her past 6 matches that she's played have covered this overs line, whilst the last 5 of those matches have gone to 3 sets. She has big groundstrokes, but like Safarova, her game can be a little off for periods in matches. I just don't see anything other than a closely fought match, probably going all the way in fairness but a couple of close sets as well can see the overs through.

[Yorkshire Bank 40 2013]

Re: Yorkshire Bank 40 2013 Might be a touch of rain about tonight so just taking the one. Not really been my competition so far... Nottinghamshire (Most 6's) vs Kent- 10/11 BetVictor- (5/10) Surprised to see the price on Notts here given the firepower of their top 6 or 7. In the likes of Hales, Lumb, Taylor, Wessels, Patel, Read, Mullaney and even Graham Swann who plays in this one, they have so many guys who can clear the ropes with ease. They know how Trent Bridge plays and so often we see Notts muster up big score on this ground. Kent have good batsman in their side as well, but they don't have anywhere near the number of players as Notts do who constantly hit maximums. Only Darren Stevens and Mat Coles you would argue are natural big hitters whilst the likes of Rob Key and Brendan Nash, who they rely on a bit to score runs are stroke makers. All in all, given the attacking nature of Notts' players, they look a good bet to hit the most maximums here.

[County Championship 2013]

Re: County Championship 2013 I'm preaching with the choir as well Middlesex to beat Warwickshire- 6/5 Ladbrokes- (5/10) There's no way Middlesex should be at odds against here. Warwickshire's side for this game has been seriously hit by injuries and England Lions call ups and even with the addition of Bell and Trott, if those two falter, they will really struggle for runs you feel. One name that stands out to me who they will arguably miss the most is Keith Barker who has become a serious player for the Bears with both bat and ball, so without him is a massive blow. Middlesex are missing Toby Roland-Jones which would worry me if he wasn't being replaced by one of best bowlers in the world in Stephen Finn so arguably they have gotten stronger even with Roland-Jones. Warwickshire really struggled with the bat against Kent on Sunday, and now with Chopra and Woakes as well, Middlesex look to be the ones to take here.

[County Championship 2013]

Re: County Championship 2013 2 for today. Will do the P/L after this round of fixtures. Somerset to beat Yorkshire- 4/5 Stan James- (4/10) Can't really add much more to what Kev has said on this one. There's no Root or Bairstow for Yorkshire and given Joe Root has scored the majority of runs in the last couple of matches, you can't help but feel they will be on the short side for runs even if Somerset's bowling attack isn't the best. If they will lack runs, Somerset definitely won't given their top 6 is incredibly strong and in Alviro Petersen, they have a go who is bang in form. Steve Kirby is a big boost for them who returns to bulster the bowling attack but with Yorkshire missing Root and Bairstow, I fancy Somerset to take advantage and win this one. Essex to beat Lancashire- 11/8 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Essex are always a bit hit and miss really as we've saw in the past few days on TV against Hampshire and Durham but I sneakily fancy them to cause a mini upset here. The fact that Alistair Cook is available is a massive boost for them whilst the absence of Ravi Bopara is not a bad thing in my eyes given his recent form. Tom Westley and Rob Quiney made runs in the one dayers, whilst they bat pretty deep as well which should aid them. Saj Mahmood returns to his old stomping ground so he should be up for this one to impress as well. Lancashire really struggled yesterday against Durham in the bowling department and the fact that Jimmy Anderson isn't playing, as well as their main spin option in Simon Kerrigan who gets through a lot of overs, I fear where they will get their wickets from to be honest. Batting wise they are strong on paper but as Durham found out yesterday, if you can get past the top 4/5, they can easily capitulate a touch. I'm sure Lancashire will want to bounce back from yesterdays defeat but I just have a feeling Essex might have it in them to win this one and at decent odds, I'll put my money where my mouth is.

[Yorkshire Bank 40 2013]

Re: Yorkshire Bank 40 2013 Yesterday didn't go to plan but hopefully I'll get back on track today. Taking quite a few but will start with the TV game on bank holiday Monday... Middlesex vs Glamorgan- Over 42.5 boundaries- 5/6 William Hill- (5/10) This bet didn't pan out the way I hoped it would yesterday but going with it again today. As Kev has mentioned, the fact that the first test is upcoming should mean the wicket they will play on will be closer to the boundary one side which won't be tough to find on a very quick outfield. Middlesex have plenty of quality batsman in their side whilst Glamorgan look a far better side this year and made a big score against Yorkshire so they should be full of confidence with the bat especially given Stephen Finn is in available. There weren't too many runs scored yesterday yet this line was almost covered and with the thought that we'll see more scored today, I'm happy to take the same bet. Middlesex (Most 6's) vs Glamorgan- 10/11 Stan James- (5/10) Surprised to see the odds this high in truth. Middlesex have far more players who like to loosen up and clear the ropes. In Paul Stirling, Dawid Malan and Joe Denly to name a few they have guys who clear the rope with ease whilst Glamorgan have batsman who like to play strokes and pick the gaps. In their big score yesterday of 285, they didn't hit a single 6 which emphasises that point and even if they hit a few today, I still expect Middlesex to hit more. Marcus North to beat Mark Wallace- 4/5 William Hill- (3/10) I like the Aussie in this little battle. The skipper top scored with 68 and with him coming in at number 4, he should be able to play himself in when the ball has stopped nipping about which is something Mark Wallace can't do. He'll open the batting meaning he'll be acing Toby Roland-Jones who I rate really highly. The keeper hasn't been in good form either this season thus far and whilst Marcus North hasn't been exceptional either, those runs yesterday should give him confidence and I fancy him to outscore His keeper for the second day in a row. Most runs in an over more than 16.5- 5/6 Stan James- (3/10) Again like the boundary bet, I'm taking this one again today despite it not going to plan yesterday. With the probably shorter boundary one side and the decent batsman we have on show, there could easily be an over where we see a couple of maximums and a boundary or two to go alongside it. There have been a lot of runs scored on this ground recently so the wicket should be decent whilst the outfield will be quick so I think there's a decent chance we will see an over cover this line. And now the rest... Hampshire to beat Surrey- 10/11 BetVictor- (5/10) I completely agree with Kev on this two. Surrey are coming into this game off the back of bowling at Middlesex's openers for what must have seemed like an eternity for them so a scorching day is not really what they needed. Chris Tremlett isn't playing today and with the exhaustion of bowling at Chris Rodgers, they may well shuffle their bowling attack for this one. Hampshire have won both of their games thus far and look a strong outfit. They bat deep and have the bowlers to keep things tight as well. All in all, I just think they are the better one day side, and with Surrey not having much rest since the 4 day game, Hampshire look the bet to me. Kent to beat Warwickshire- 6/4 Sportingbet- (3/10) I know the Bears have Ian Bell and Trott back for this one, but they are missing a few other key playes as well. Rikki Clarke, Keith Barker and Tim Ambrose are all missing as well as skipper Jim Troughton who usually provides stability in the middle order. If Kent can get rid of Chopra, Bell and Trott early on, they will very much be in business here and with Stevens and Billings returning for them, they might well spring a surprise here. Unicorns to beat Gloucestershire- 9/2 Sportingbet- (2/1) Wouldn't be having Gloucestershire at the price they are here. They did well to beat Leicestershire in the County Championship but then they showed what they are capable of in the thrashing they suffered against the Foxes in their first one dayer. Their batting worries me greatly and if they lose a couple of wickets early they could quite easily capitulate. The Unicorns side is getting better every year with the more experience they have and they scored a few runs against Somerset yesterday before Marcus Trescothick tore their bowling apart. The Gloucestershire side is far weaker than the Somerset side they played yesterday and with the generous odds on offer, I'm happy to take a punt on them.

[Yorkshire Bank 40 2013]

Re: Yorkshire Bank 40 2013 Haven't been around too much lately because of uni work but dissertation is in so I can look at the markets a bit more now. Some cracking calls by Kev so far in the 2 domestic threads so hopefully I can chip in as well. 4 for me today, all coming in the TV game... Durham vs Essex- Over 42.5 Boundaries- 5/6 William Hill- 5/10) I'm with Kev on this one in what looks to be cracking conditions for batting. Lots of the games last season here were filled with runs and with both teams strength lying in their batsman, we should see plenty of runs today. Both teams have bowlers who are more than capable of going round the park a bit as well but given the weather and general conditions down at the Riverside, I fully expect for us to see at least 43 boundaries in this one. Paul Collingwood (+1.5 runs) vs Ravi Bopara- 5/6 Ladbrokes- (4/10) I know Paul Grayson has been talking Bopara up recently, saying he's due a big score with the England Lions game approaching but the fact of the matter is he's wildly out of form right now. He made just 6 against Hampshire the other day in front of the TV cameras, whilst he's not managed a score above 41 since the opening day of the season which shows his form at the minute. Although Paul Collingwood isn't quite the player he once was when he was pivotal to the England Side, he's still a class batsman in his own right and his form is far better than Bopara's. He scored 64 in Durham's recent Championship game and has another 50 to his name this season as well and usually he is the man for the big occasion like today on TV. To be honest, it wouldn't actually surprise me if Collingwood didn't even need to get to double figures today given Bopara's form but with his quality anyway, I like him in this market. Most Runs in an Over 17.5- 5/6 Stan James- (3/10) Do quite like this bet as well given I expect we'll see quite a few runs today. The thing is, we have a lot of quality batsman on show today, and in that, plenty of aggressive players who can score quickly. If the likes of Mustard, Stokes, Collingwood, Napier, Foster or even Bopara get going to name a few, they could easily muster 20+ runs in an over. Another point to factor in is some of the bowling we'll see. I'm not sure if Essex will bring David Masters back today given the horrific bowling performance they put in against Hampshire, but in the likes of Saj Mahmood and some of their inexperienced bowlers, you have bowlers who can be erratic to say the least at times whilst the same can be said for a couple of the Durham guys as well so I think we'll see at least 1 over that goes for a fair few today. Phil Mustard (Race to 10 Runs) v Mark Stoneman- 11/10 Stan James- (3/10) Don't usually get involved in this kind of market but the odds look bizarre to me. Mustard is by far the more aggressive batsman of the two and will be the one who will look to take advantage of the early powerplay. The risk will be if he gets himself out early, but with the confidence he should bring into this game from that winning innings against Notts, he should have his eye in pretty early. Stoneman is a decent batsman as well, but given the aggressive nature of Mustard and role he plays in the one day games, I think he should be the one odds on to reach 10 runs first.

[County Championship 2013]

Re: County Championship 2013 Missed the first round of fixtures due to uni work but had a look this week and taking my first few for the season. Super previews as always Kev :ok Warwickshire to beat Durham- 8/11 Stan James- (5/10) Price isn't great on the defending champs but it's a fair bit higher than most firms have it. Warwickshire didn't get a chance to play too much cricket last week against Derbyshire but all of their bowlers were amongst the wickets and Chopra and Westwood hit half centuries as well. Chris Woakes and Keith Barker, who had a terrific campaign last season are available for this game which will boost both batting and bowling departments. Durham beat Somerset last week much thanks to Onions and Rushworth with the conditions favouring them when they bowled in the first innings. It was a good result to be fair, but the conditions won't be the same this time around and Warwickshire will be eager to record their first win of the season on home soil. Having Woakes and Barker available really do provide an extremely strong and balanced side, whilst Durham's batting still worries me a bit. They weren't great in that respect against Somerset, falling to a poor score in the second innings and Warwickshire just look the much better side to me here. Somerset to beat Surrey- Evens Bet365- (4/10) With Kev on this one and agree with everything he's said. Surrey had all sorts of problems last season with the tragic events of Tom Maynard and then skipper Hamilton-Brown has departed for Sussex in the winter. They have recruited Graham Smith and Solanki who are two really experienced and classy batsman but with the rest of their batting so inexperienced now Mark Ramprakash has gone as well, if those two fail to score I just fear for them in terms of runs. That's something that Somerset won't struggle with you feel despite last week's result against Durham. Alviro Peterson is back for them today to strengthen up the batting lineup whilst Nick Compton is in the squad as well. Surrey's bowling attack is the stronger you'd say but against this Somerset batting lineup, it has to be as there's always classy batsman to come. Like I said, if Smith struggles in his Surrey debut with the bat, I don't think they'll have enough runs about them to get them through this one so I'm backing Somerset in this one. Essex to beat Northants- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (4/10) Even without David Masters, I still fancy Essex here. Reece Topley replaces Masters and he is very well thought of and has done well for the England U19s and is a very promising talent. From last season though, Northants were extremely inconsistent in their performances and do rely on certain players far too much. Without Jack Brooks and Chaminda Vaas, their bowling attack is very very weak now and it puts so much pressure on Trent Copeland and Andrew Hall to perform. Without them going well, Essex could really fill their boots with runs and they've got quality in their batting lineup to do just that. Northants always strike me as inconsistent after last season, and despite a good performance against Glamorgan where they dominated, Essex are a far better side and I think they'll take this one. Worcestershire to beat Glamorgan- 4/5 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Happy to back Worcestershire here. They were badly affected by a virus running through their side against Lancashire last week but they look to be over that here and batting wise, they went well anyway. They have some quality batsman amongst their ranks including Moeen Ali and Samaraweera whilst Alan Richardson is always amongst the wickets for them. Glamorgan were absolutely hammered by Northants last week before the weather came to their rescue but their side looks far weaker than Worcestershire's. If they are to go well, Marcus North will have to score runs of plenty, whilst although they have Murray Goodwin on their books now, he looked to show his age a bit last season so they'll hope he can score well. Bowling wise I don't really fancy them, and with the disappointment of last season and relegation for Worcestershire, I think they will bounce back a touch here and take this one.

[Premier League 2013 - Outright bets]

Re: Premier League 2013 - Outright bets GL with those bud. Taken a few outrights myself. Not gone mad like last year though. Phil Taylor to top the league- 11/8 Ladbrokes- (5/10) Now I've not gone in as heavily as Kev but the same reasoning applies here and he's said it all really. Taylor has never failed to top the league come the semi finals, regardless to whether he won the trophy. The thing you have to look for in this market is consistency and there's nobody more consistent that Taylor. Sure the likes of MVG, Barney and Lewis can be unplayable on their day but over 14 weeks, they won't be performing at their best week in week out which the Power has done for year after year. With the likes of Wade, Barney and Hamilton, you have guys who mentally 'fear' Taylor and really struggle to beat him regardless of the form going into the match. I don't know whether the Power will win the PL this season given the strength of the field, but I'd be extremely surprised if he isn't the top dog in the group stage. Robert Thornton to finish bottom of league- 10/3 Coral- (2/10) Robert Thornton to be Relegated- 6/4 Coral- (3/10) Now I'm actually a fan of Robert Thornton and I admire what he did in 2012 but I do secretly fear for him a touch in the PL. He undoubtedly deserves his place in this year's runners but you have to wonder if he'll be able to consistently mix it up with the big guns over 9 weeks. Out of all the players he will face, there's only really Wes Newton really who you would if you like, 'fancy' Thornton to pick up some points with the rest all a class above the Scot IMO. When he is playing well he's superb to watch, however my fear is if he does lose a couple of matches, he is a player who needs and if he gets on a bad run, I'm not so sure how well he will cope and get himself out of that bad run. His scoring is as good as anyone's really but over the past couple of months, he has started to miss a few doubles which was his problem before 2012 and he simply can't afford to do that in the PL, especially over this format against the best players in the world. I wasn't entirely convinced about his performance in the World Cup either and I just suspect he may well struggle in what is his debut performance in the league. Andy Hamilton Most Tournament 180's- 25/1 Coral- (1.5/10 E/W) 1/5 1-3 Quite what this price is about escapes me quite frankly. I was actually extremely surprised to see Hamilton amongst the front runners to be relegated given just what he has achieved in the past year or so. He made it to the semis in his debut season in the PL and should have made the final really and he has consistently performed well in the big events. One thing he does, as well as finish solidly is score heavily and can hit 180's for absolute fun at times. Obviously the front runners in this market are MVG, Anderson, Lewis and Barney but in reality, Hamilton can score as well as any of these guys and is arguably just as consistent as them, if not a tad more at times. The thing with Lewis and Anderson, they can throw in absolute stinkers at times which is something Hamilton seldom does. He always gives it his all and he will be boosted by last year's performance in the league. With the potential each way return here, even if he doesn't quite manage to win this market, if he comes in the top 3, it will provide a pretty tasty return so with him having every chance to do just that, I'm happy to back the Hammer here.

[Australian Open 2013]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Yeah a bit like Atko, no way confident or more importantly comfortable in posing tips at the minute given what's happened. If anyone wants to know them a.k.a the crazy ones, they are welcome to PM me but think it would be wrong of me to post them and encourage others to go along with me. All about beating the bookies and there's enough people on here already that are doing a fine job. GL tonight guys. :ok

[Australian Open 2013 Livescore Thread]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Livescore Thread Has 3 points to win her second game, never going to happen - handicap falls a game short. Yep. Inevitable really.

[Australian Open 2013 Livescore Thread]

Re: Australian Open 2013 Livescore Thread Can't believe Watson isn't going to cover this handicap. If things weren't already against me, her missing overhead after overhead put together with Radwanska's ability to be able to challenge about 15 seconds after the point on two occasions just makes me feel like this tournament really isn't going to happen for me.