harry_rag

Have cast my eye over the tryscorer prices in tonight's Huddersfield v Salford game and backed the following for an interest, all with Betfred. One for a small loss, 2 or more for profit.
Gaskell at 9/4, Welham at 12/5, Evalds at 2/1 and Lui at 4/1
Based on the spreads I'd have expected prices more like 2/1, 2/1, 6/4 and 3/1 and most other firms are no longer than those prices. Will do me for an interest and a continuation of this experiment.
Brierley at 8/5 would be of interest but given the shorter price I'll stick to the 4 above rather than spread myself too thin. I'd have expected evens or just over.

Maybe I should admit defeat! I think Evalds is a non-runner and at least Brierley didn't score to rub salt in the wound but no joy despite 8 tries being scored. 
It was a case of what the RP give with one hand I give back with the other as both of their tips obliged, Salford +8 and McGillvary to score a try.

Chubb Classic [Starts Friday]
Jerry Kelly
Each Way @ 20-1 Bet 365
Makes his debut on the 50 and over tour, and though missed all three cuts on main tour this year do think he will make hay on the Champions circuit.

Well done, missed this one, too busy with rugby in all it's shapes and forms! 

Hogg try enough for a reasonable profit on the day. Back for more in a couple of weeks!

win or lose, thank you for your effort, input and predictions. Much appreciated.

Hogg try enough for a reasonable profit on the day. Back for more in a couple of weeks!

Hotshots prices look about right in the Wales/England game but have found 4 Wales players who appeal one way or another.
Webb to score a try at 5/1 with BF SportSbook
J Davies to score a try at 6/1 and a buy of his try minutes at 6, both with Spreadex
Buy Tipuric's try minutes at 5 with Spreadex
Buy Biggar's try minutes at 2 with Spreadex
For England I've gone for Nowell to score a try at 16/5 and Joseph to score a try at 7/2, both with PP, and bought Young's try minutes at 5 with SX.
I especially like the first two prices which are a point longer than typically available elsewhere and it feels wrong to be effectively offering odds against that either of those players manages a try.
Obviously the try minutes bets are at the mercy of when a try is scored but, with a bit of luck, a couple of tries should make for a profit on the game. No shortage of interest at least, all at prices that satisfy my criteria for value.
Oh, nearly forgot, Skybet go 22/1 for Joseph to score 2 or more and that's just about big enough to tempt me into a "just in case" bet.

Quick look at Catalans v Warrington flags a couple of anytime tryscorers who might be worth backing with Betfred.
Lineham at 11/10 and Myler at 9/4
Lineham odds on with most firms and Myler, similarly, sub 2/1 and I'm inclined to say the majority are right on both counts. One for a small profit, hopefully both for a decent one.

Goal and (RU) tryscorers are my "specialism" in as much as I have one, at least in terms of probably accounting for more of my bets than any other single type of bet, Dipping my toe into League to see if the same approach works or not.
In tonight's Cas/Leigh game I've bought Eden's try minutes at 24 with SPIN. Heard a favourable mention for the prospects of him scoring and I'd equate that to around 11/8 anytime when he's actually 10/11 at most. Has a ratio of a try roughly every other game.
Also topped up on Roberts at the eye catching 11/2 anytime with Spreadex, having followed someone in on him at a reasonable looking 3/1 earlier.

Gone for Greenwood try minutes at 13 with Spreadex in the opener. A hasty bet and a foray into the relevant unknown but price looks ok for a low risk interest.

No strong opinion on the antepost markets, I have followed a tip for Catalans on the handicap market (can't remember the start just now).
I used to love a handicap or supremacy spread bet years ago and have had various stalled attempts at running my own ratings over the years.
I may have a dabble on a few games this year, perhaps to see if my approach to goal and tryscorers can be applied to this code as well.

I can't claim to be an expert on the sport, just someone with a growing interest arising from the betting options it presents. My instinctive reaction, what I'd back now if I had free bets to use, would be Italy on the handicap, Wales to win and Scotland on the handicap.
I think Ireland win but not by more than 20, Scotland give a good account of themselves and stay within 7 points of France and I don't really know about Wales v England. At the prices I'd take a punt on the home win as, if Wales end up chasing the game, England may win by more than the handicap.
As usual, I'll be looking for bets in the tryscorer markets.

Castleford are reportedly in pretty decent pre-season shape, having disposed of Saints comfortably in a friendly. They have a potent half-back combo in Luke Gale and Ben Roberts. Many pundits are expecting big things this season, especially at home, and suggest a top 4 finish.
Newly promoted Leigh have had problems with the loss of James Clare and Gregg McNally. Could be a baptism of fire on Friday night.
Castleford (-10) (10/11) v Leigh.
Good luck for the season, Harry. May catch up with you elsewhere.

I think the toughest game to call here without a shadow of a doubt is France vs Scotland. Both teams played well in their opening games but I think if Scotland can get in the faces of the French then there could be a huge upset in Paris. I think France are rightly the firm favourites but Scotland cannot be underestimated. If they produce a repeat of that first half display that they did against Ireland then it could be a thrilling game.
Undoubtedly, Wales are a poor price at 2.75 to win. I can see England winning by 9-12 points at least. It's just not clicking for Wales and hasn't done for months. Still, the Millennium Stadium factor always adds an edge.
I did think Italy could beat Wales in their opening game and it was looking in the balance until the sin bin. I'd be shocked if Ireland didn't win and I think Ireland to win by 15 points could be a good shout. They are wounded animals and will be out to make amends for last weekend.

Great to see your tips, @harry_rag. I'm not sure anyone saw Scotland coming out as winners so convincingly. I have been impressed with them over the past few years under Cotter but I always felt their talent pool might hold them back.
I did think England might struggle. It seemed like the France that fancies it turned up and when England weren't playing well I thought they could be humbled but they did well.
As a Welshman, I think Sunday's result papers over the cracks. I really hope Sam Davies is given a start this weekend. Dan Biggar was appalling. The root problem is Howley though. Wales will do well to get another win under his stewardship. I think Sunday is as good as it's going to get. I will post the next round of fixtures and their odds up now.

Just one bet in the later game, Joseph to score a try at 13/5 with PP.
I'd have him closer to 2/1 than that, looks fair at the very worst.

There are also 3 players that appeal for Ireland, Murray at an enhanced 9/2 with Lads, Ringrose at 11/2 with PP and a buy of Earl's try minutes at 10 with Spreadex, which easily beats the best anytime price of 3/1.
Any 2 from those 6 should be enough for a profit.

Scotland/Ireland: Having looked at the hosts from a tryscorer perspective, I wouldn't put anyone off a buy of their hotshots at 23 (25 points per Hogg, Seymour, Jones or Maitland try). As I wasn't entirely sold on Maitland's stats and was more impressed by the fixed odds prices on the other 3, I've effectively dutched the 3 of them at the best prices I could find, Seymour at 4.2 (3/1 readily available with the bookies), Jones at 7.2 (11/2 best available) and Hogg at 9/2 with Lads (one of their enhanced specials, 4/1 next best). A single winner would roughly return 100 points to 58 points staked.
No doubt I'll regret not keeping it simple with the hotshots buy as Maitland runs riot or just one of my 3 players scores 2 or more tries but, in the long run, I tend to trust in the approach of going where I see the best value.

Funnily enough I almost started a thread myself to see if there was any interest. Still betting on Rugby, following all the tips in the RP and showing a small profit so far. For my own bets, I focus on try scorer markets on fixed odds and spreads.
I'm on no Grand Slam winner at 2.2 this year as I think it should be a shade of odds on rather than odds against. A few of the RP antepost tips are Wales to win at 9/1 and to finish in the top 2 at 5/2, France to finish in the bottom 2 at 11/4, Joseph top tournament tryscorer, Stander top Irish tryscorer and Campagnaro top Italian. They also advise <19.5 cards, >8.5 Scotland tries and Ireland v Scotland to be the highest scoring game.
For today I've followed them on France +6.5 on the halftime handicap and France penalty to be the first scoring play. In the other game I'm on Ireland to win by 1-12 points and bought total points at 43.
Will be having a closer look at the tryscorer markets later.

Winner this week,
This season (level stakes): 12 winners and a push from 21 bets, a profit of 3.82 points with a yield of 18.19%
This season (advised stakes): 9 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 12 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 3.12 points with a yield of 20.8%
Overall (level stakes) +27.72 with a yield of 21.33% from 130 bets.

Winner this week,
This season (level stakes): 12 winners and a push from 21 bets, a profit of 3.82 points with a yield of 18.19%
This season (advised stakes): 9 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 12 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 3.12 points with a yield of 20.8%
Overall (level stakes) +27.72 with a yield of 21.33% from 130 bets.

New season starts next week
Though only 123 place terms in this market 1/4 odds, I am keen on this young woman to give us an interest all year, and hopefully at the end of the year a decent pay out!
Lexi Thompson @ 40-1 Skybet
Though she won early last year, the rest of her season was underwhelming for a young player with such a gifted game.
She has worked hard in the off season, and in an invitational tournament last week where she was playing with top male players from the Champions tour off the same tees Lexi finished in a credible 11th position ahead of quality players like Montgomerie. 
This tells me her game face is on!

Top Swedish Player
Christofer Blomstrand
Each Way @ 11-1  Betfred
Not bad value as won on Sunshine tour in this part of the world last year before doing ok on the Challenge tour
With only 9 rivals and 1/4 place odds 123 a bet worth risking

West Ham +1 Asian handicap cards, 0.5pt at 1.9 with 365.