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harry_rag

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  1. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in 2017 Six Nations   
    There are also 3 players that appeal for Ireland, Murray at an enhanced 9/2 with Lads, Ringrose at 11/2 with PP and a buy of Earl's try minutes at 10 with Spreadex, which easily beats the best anytime price of 3/1.
    Any 2 from those 6 should be enough for a profit.
  2. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in 2017 Six Nations   
    Scotland/Ireland: Having looked at the hosts from a tryscorer perspective, I wouldn't put anyone off a buy of their hotshots at 23 (25 points per Hogg, Seymour, Jones or Maitland try). As I wasn't entirely sold on Maitland's stats and was more impressed by the fixed odds prices on the other 3, I've effectively dutched the 3 of them at the best prices I could find, Seymour at 4.2 (3/1 readily available with the bookies), Jones at 7.2 (11/2 best available) and Hogg at 9/2 with Lads (one of their enhanced specials, 4/1 next best). A single winner would roughly return 100 points to 58 points staked.
    No doubt I'll regret not keeping it simple with the hotshots buy as Maitland runs riot or just one of my 3 players scores 2 or more tries but, in the long run, I tend to trust in the approach of going where I see the best value.
  3. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from StevieDay1983 in 2017 Six Nations   
    Funnily enough I almost started a thread myself to see if there was any interest. Still betting on Rugby, following all the tips in the RP and showing a small profit so far. For my own bets, I focus on try scorer markets on fixed odds and spreads.
    I'm on no Grand Slam winner at 2.2 this year as I think it should be a shade of odds on rather than odds against. A few of the RP antepost tips are Wales to win at 9/1 and to finish in the top 2 at 5/2, France to finish in the bottom 2 at 11/4, Joseph top tournament tryscorer, Stander top Irish tryscorer and Campagnaro top Italian. They also advise <19.5 cards, >8.5 Scotland tries and Ireland v Scotland to be the highest scoring game.
    For today I've followed them on France +6.5 on the halftime handicap and France penalty to be the first scoring play. In the other game I'm on Ireland to win by 1-12 points and bought total points at 43.
    Will be having a closer look at the tryscorer markets later.
  4. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from immortal-- in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    Winner this week,
    This season (level stakes): 12 winners and a push from 21 bets, a profit of 3.82 points with a yield of 18.19%
    This season (advised stakes): 9 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 12 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 3.12 points with a yield of 20.8%
    Overall (level stakes) +27.72 with a yield of 21.33% from 130 bets.
  5. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from thecurlyone1 in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    Winner this week,
    This season (level stakes): 12 winners and a push from 21 bets, a profit of 3.82 points with a yield of 18.19%
    This season (advised stakes): 9 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 12 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 3.12 points with a yield of 20.8%
    Overall (level stakes) +27.72 with a yield of 21.33% from 130 bets.
  6. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Striker in LPGA money list 2017   
    New season starts next week
    Though only 123 place terms in this market 1/4 odds, I am keen on this young woman to give us an interest all year, and hopefully at the end of the year a decent pay out!
    Lexi Thompson @ 40-1 Skybet
    Though she won early last year, the rest of her season was underwhelming for a young player with such a gifted game.
    She has worked hard in the off season, and in an invitational tournament last week where she was playing with top male players from the Champions tour off the same tees Lexi finished in a credible 11th position ahead of quality players like Montgomerie. 
    This tells me her game face is on!
  7. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Striker in SA Open   
    Top Swedish Player
    Christofer Blomstrand
    Each Way @ 11-1  Betfred
    Not bad value as won on Sunshine tour in this part of the world last year before doing ok on the Challenge tour
    With only 9 rivals and 1/4 place odds 123 a bet worth risking
  8. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from immortal-- in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    West Ham +1 Asian handicap cards, 0.5pt at 1.9 with 365.
  9. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from thecurlyone1 in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    For today, we have time of first goal 32nd minute or before, 0.5 point evens with Boyles, in the Hull v Crystal Palace game.
  10. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Striker in MCB Tour Championship   
    Is the season finale for the European Senior Tour
    Unusual to see a Top 10 Finish market on this tour, so lets take advantage.....
    Gary Marks @ 13-2  Bet 365
    Quality English player who has already won this year. Finished just outside top 10 here last year when playing course for first time,and will know his way around better now
  11. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from thecurlyone1 in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    This week's selection is time of first goal 34th minute or before in Ipswich v QPR, 0.5pt at 23-20 with Boyles.
  12. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from thecurlyone1 in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    Winner this week with an early Derby goal landing the odds.
    This season (level stakes): 7 winners and a push from 12 bets, a profit of 2.37 points with a yield of 19.74%
    This season (advised stakes): 6 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 6 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 2.04 points with a yield of 22.7%
    Overall (level stakes) +26.27 with a yield of 21.71% from 121 bets.
  13. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Bedlam in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    Another nice win Harry, thanks for posting Mr pullein's tip.
  14. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Sir Puntalot in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    @harry_rag Nice work. Pullein is definitely one of the better ones. 
  15. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from Bedlam in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    Today's selection is under four Asian total cards in Arsenal v Middlesbrough,
    0.5pt point at 4/5 with 365.
  16. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from Bedlam in Kevin Pullein Saturday Picks 2016/17   
    Just the one yellow so another winner this week.
    This season (level stakes): 6 winners and a push from 10 bets, a profit of 2.17 points with a yield of 21.69%
    This season (advised stakes): 5 bets advised to 1 point stakes and 5 to only 0.5 point stakes, a profit of 1.35 points with a yield of 18%
    Overall (level stakes) +26.07 with a yield of 21.91% from 119 bets.
  17. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from Division in How do you calculate odds and determine value?   
    I use the spreads to give me an indicative fixed odds price in certain markets, mainly bookings, goals, goalscorers and try scorers in rugby.
    Fairly simplistic approach using Poisson or stuff gleaned from KP's book on betting on football but it helps me to either identify possible value bets or decide whether the spreads or fixed odds are they best way for me to back something I fancy.
  18. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in How do you calculate odds and determine value?   
    I use the spreads to give me an indicative fixed odds price in certain markets, mainly bookings, goals, goalscorers and try scorers in rugby.
    Fairly simplistic approach using Poisson or stuff gleaned from KP's book on betting on football but it helps me to either identify possible value bets or decide whether the spreads or fixed odds are they best way for me to back something I fancy.
  19. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Bamford in Ryder Cup   
    Not everybody's cup of tea, but I like a bet in the player markets.  Top combined points scorer market is the most popular, with Poulter, 4-way tie, Poulter and Rose winning over the past 4 renewals. I think Team USA win by a squeak, but I'm happy to back Justin Rose at 14/1. Loves this format and is nicely rested for this. From a USA perspective Dusstin Johnson is 7/1 favourite, but I'm backing Patrick Reed again at 14/1.  Simply thrives in this arena. Willett (25s), Walker (33s) also appeal.  Top European Rookie is another market that interests me and I've snapped up Danny Willett at 100/30. Pieters and Fitzpatrick are his challengers IMO.
  20. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Striker in Evian Championship   
    Is the final Major of the Women's season [Starts Thursday]
    Top 20 Finish
    Mi Hyang Lee @ 13-8  Bet Victor
    Like the way this young Korean is finishing the year with two 2nd places in last three tournaments.
    Good ball striker and has finished in top 20 five of the last 9 majors including 4th place on this weeks course in 2015
     
  21. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Striker in LPGA   
    The Manulife Classic starts tomorrow
    Sei Young Kim
    Each Way @ 18-1  Stan James
    Young Korean knows how to get the job done and finished 2nd last week
     
     
  22. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Striker in Champions Tour 2016   
    about 33-1 harry
  23. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from Striker in Champions Tour 2016   
    I feel slightly better about missing that one now that he didn't actually win the tournament. I would definitely have followed on the top 10 bet but have a sneaky feeling I might have been tempted in by an outright bet as well. Do you know what his price was for the win by any chance?
    Anyway, well done and I'm off to right a hundred lines of the "must try harder" variety. 
  24. Like
    harry_rag reacted to Striker in Champions Tour 2016   
    4th
  25. Like
    harry_rag got a reaction from Striker in Champions Tour 2016   
    I somehow managed to miss this. Looking at the current outright betting I've got a feeling I may end up regretting it. Good luck for the remaining rounds.
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