** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **
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harry_rag got a reaction from Timmy1515 in FootballBettingPredictor
Well done on that one, just looked at the result. Away team 2-0 up until 90 minutes onwards when the hosts manage to score twice. Glad I didn't see your last post earlier as it may well have tempted me to back the straight away win!
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harry_rag reacted to Timmy1515 in FootballBettingPredictor
With 4/5 winning bets so far I will be in profit by the end of the day with 2 selection still to play later
both are in Ireland where ratings haven't been the best but hopefully with the changes made they are better tonight
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harry_rag reacted to Timmy1515 in World Snooker Championship
Hi @harry_rag
The format has not changed Barry Hearn on the other hand would love nothing more then to change the format to best of 7's.
1st rd matches are best of 19
2nd round and QF's are best of 25
Semi Final best of 33
with the Final best of 35
so it's not changed from last year I can't comment on the spread as it's not a market I take interest in sorry
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harry_rag got a reaction from Liamsaunders096 in The Football Betting Experiment (GOD STRATEGY) !!
I'd certainly leave it till at least overnight, given that the game isn't even finished yet!
For the amount involved I'd be inclined to tell them and potentially earn a bit of good will.
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harry_rag reacted to Liamsaunders096 in The Football Betting Experiment (GOD STRATEGY) !!
LOSER !!!! 0-0 at Half time even though they payed out for some reason. Fully expecting them to take out the £2.89 in the coming days.
Bank Balance : £8.40
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harry_rag got a reaction from Striker in World Snooker Championship
Have followed on that. Also on Hawkins at 27/1 with Lads as saw him tipped elsewhere. (Used price boost for that, 25/1 best generally available).
I know nothing about the sport but I ended up having a look at the spread prices in relation to fixed odds and it did flag the 12/1 as an interesting price.
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harry_rag reacted to Timmy1515 in FootballBettingPredictor
In China the Home side have been backed into 2.00 so the price on the away side not to lose has increased to 1.83 .
The home side for me are a shocking Value here I make the away side favourites.
I guess with prices you win some you lose some lets see who comes out on top.
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harry_rag reacted to Timmy1515 in World Snooker Championship
@Striker & @harry_rag
John Higgins for me looks nailed on for the Semi- Finals so If I'm correct 12/1 wont last long when he's in the semi finals. Only Selby in the top half would beat Higgins for me so if you can get Selby beat before the semi final I can easily see John in the Final.
As for Barry Hawkins I'd me amazed if he didn't at least get through to the Q Final's. But Barry is one those players who can get beat from 9-0 up with the match the best of 19. I've seen him crumble and blow leads time and time again a match in the uk open when winning I think 5-0 to Nigel Bond and lost 6-5. So don't be surprised if you see him blow a big lead.
I'm like a kid on christmas eve can't wait for tomorrow
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harry_rag reacted to Striker in World Snooker Championship
Good Luck lads
Outright I like John Higgins
Having a good season and knows how to get the job done at the Crucible
Each Way @ 12-1 Betway
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harry_rag reacted to Timmy1515 in FootballBettingPredictor
Results
Thursday 19.04.18
Selection 40
Single
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg
Allsvenskan / 19th Apr 2018 @ 18:00
Double chance • IF Brommapojkarna or draw (0-2) LOST -10PTS
Odds: 1.85 Bet365
Stake: 10
Selection 41
Single
IFK Göteborg vs Dalkurd FF
Allsvenskan / 19th Apr 2018 @ 18:00
Match winner • IFK Göteborg (1-0) WON +10PTS
Odds: 2.00
Stake: 10
All odds are with Bet365
Profit/Loss of the day 0 PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +43.30PTS
Overall Selections 30
Won 18
Lost 12
Strike rate :- 60.00%
Avg odds 1.97
R.O.I +14.43%
Break even on the day roll on the weekend
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harry_rag reacted to Data in The Daily Spread
We all know what is certain happen if anyone did oppose all your spreads (or mine!) with cash . . .
So, the sooner they start the better.
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harry_rag got a reaction from vikki37 in Outside Chance (2018)
Tantalisingly close to a full house tonight, with Paulinho briefly being credited with the second Barca goal..
54 winners from 163 bets (33.13%), +28.26 points with an ROI of 17.33%.
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harry_rag reacted to Timmy1515 in FootballBettingPredictor
Single
Selection 28
GIF Sundsvall vs Trelleborgs FF
Allsvenskan / 17th Apr 2018 @ 18:00
Double chance • Trelleborgs FF or draw
Odds: 2.30
Stake: 10
One selection for today
When I compiled the odds I made Sundsvall 1.91 (52.36%) chance of winning this fixture. When the odds opened up Sundsvall were given odds of 1.75 which to me looked to short. Now the punters have spoken and backed the home side into 1.61 in this case I would like them to go a little shorter just one tick would do it. But I'm going to take the odds on offer now as I believe that is as short as the home side will go.
Having said all this the home are favs and have over a 50% of winning so could still win
image above is how I priced the game I understand some people have trouble seeing the image. Orange is my odds light blue is bet365. the numbers at the end are the difference between my odds and bet365. So as of 12:50pm there is a difference of 9.75% so that is why I have made this selection.
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harry_rag got a reaction from vikki37 in Outside Chance (2018)
The current overall record (expunging the 25 NFL bets from the previous campaign) is:
210 winners from 676 bets (31.07%), +97.68 points with an ROI of 14.45%.
Breakdown by sports is:
306 Football bets were +26.23 points for an ROI of 8.57%
286 Rugby Union bets were +51.54 points for an ROI of 18.02%
84 Rugby League bets were +19.91 points for an ROI of 23.71%
Conclusions include that maintaining a 30% strike rate should equate to a double digit ROI, which seems decent enough. Obviously it's good to spread the risk across the 3 different sports. Union seems to be over-performing this time round and carrying the other two sports. The League results from the last campaign were distorted by the good results for the World Cup which showed almost a 100% ROI from 22 bets. The remaining games were only just in profit.
Building up a decent sample size overall now, will look back at the overall figures again at the end of the football season.
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harry_rag got a reaction from Torque in Outside Chance (2018)
The current overall record (expunging the 25 NFL bets from the previous campaign) is:
210 winners from 676 bets (31.07%), +97.68 points with an ROI of 14.45%.
Breakdown by sports is:
306 Football bets were +26.23 points for an ROI of 8.57%
286 Rugby Union bets were +51.54 points for an ROI of 18.02%
84 Rugby League bets were +19.91 points for an ROI of 23.71%
Conclusions include that maintaining a 30% strike rate should equate to a double digit ROI, which seems decent enough. Obviously it's good to spread the risk across the 3 different sports. Union seems to be over-performing this time round and carrying the other two sports. The League results from the last campaign were distorted by the good results for the World Cup which showed almost a 100% ROI from 22 bets. The remaining games were only just in profit.
Building up a decent sample size overall now, will look back at the overall figures again at the end of the football season.
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harry_rag got a reaction from Timmy1515 in FootballBettingPredictor
Not at a glance but realised if I click on the image it opens it up which makes it easier to read and there's the option to zoom in.
I'd say, given the desire to display the information available in the table, there's probably no better way of doing it. You can access it to see it more closely as and when you want to, or just follow the selections and results as posted.
The way I'm seeing the images is that they occupy a large box but the image only fills about a quarter of that space (the full width but only a quarter of the height) if that makes sense.
Looking back, the image you posted on the 11th was clearer than those in the post above (though still better to click on it to read it than just read it as displayed).
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harry_rag reacted to Data in Football Mini-Performance Spreads
A welcome +14 yesterday, two winning days on the bounce (although only +15 in total). Just enough however to get me to below the -400 mark, now -399.80 from 84.
Being in deficit with this 'playing for points' exercise is one thing, but my real money horseracing spreads dealt me a severe blow with yesterday's changing going, several hundreds down on the day!
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harry_rag got a reaction from Data in Football Mini-Performance Spreads
I hear you brother!
Becoming a matter of pride now, can't bail out just got to keep plugging away. Keep the faith as it were. Might try some Noel Edmonds style "cosmic ordering". I demand one of those occasional spread bets where the make up far exceeds your view of the best potential upside!
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harry_rag reacted to Timmy1515 in FootballBettingPredictor
Hi @harry_rag
thanks for the reply I'm not here for people to follow the selections with money if they choose to that's down to them. I post for people to follow my work who are interested in what I do. I agree its very early at the moment to judge just wanted to see if I was just chatting to myself.
About the images I'm sorry you cant see them to clearly I will see if I can come up with another way of posting them. Like I've said I'm not here for people to follow me with money just here to give people an insight in what I do. Lets the fools like me take a punt on it . As long as I have one person keeping an eye on it and enjoys the thread I will continue to post. Thank you for your input
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harry_rag reacted to Timmy1515 in FootballBettingPredictor
As predicted J-League and K -League ratings are good and I'm happy with them. China super league and Sweden are very close just a few teams out and profits will come rolling in on them leagues. The Irish and Norway leagues I'm unsure on hopefully over the coming weeks will get them in line.
Brazil's Top league will be ready by the end of tomorrow and hopefully a couple more by the weekend .
Not sure how many if anyone is interested in what i'm doing so please let me know if anyone is looking on cause if no one is interested I'll happily carry on away from the forum .
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harry_rag got a reaction from vikki37 in Outside Chance (2018)
Dunbar, Main and Veainu enough for a profitable couple of days.
50 winners from 151 bets (33.11%), +21.01 points with an ROI of 13.91%.
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harry_rag reacted to Data in Football Mini-Performance Spreads
Wow! a 1 point profit from yesterday's pair. Now -413.80 from 79
One more from today's programme,
SUN 18:00 Benfica v Porto SELL AWAY 14-17
. . . and @harry_rag with no tries for Quins, we're both having a miserable time, eh?
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harry_rag reacted to Data in Football Mini-Performance Spreads
My strategy yesterday was to use my home-grown football ratings, which simply forecast each game as home,away or draw, and sell the forecast losing side's spread. No parameters other than that, so no minimum spread price or anything. I wondered how to proceed with my draw predictions and opted to sell whichever team had the highest spread quote. Big mistake that, the bets where my prediction suggested a drawn game produced a loss of over 100 points ~ if I'd ignored them I'd have been in profit.
Such is the process of strategy development. We learn from such things and move on. The frustrating part is that my HDA predictions made a profit from traditional odds (using "average odds" from OddsPortal) of +5.54 to 1 point stakes. (and no, my prediction system doesn't always profit like that).
A work in progress here and a big deficit to recover, onward and upward.