harry_rag

Nicked 5th place at a decent price though you'd have struggled to get the better early prices and the best place terms (just Sky Bet I think and they weren't tending to be best price about any of the runners). Nothing back for me but a decent run on AF at 14/1.

Definitely highlites value bets ....some big prices were available early on ambient ....and sqyedati was arguable a value bet too with five places ....way overpriced ....and it creates a lot of interest ...I've really enjoyed it and thoroughly worth the effort .....I've no doubt it will throw up big Ew in the future .....we should do it more often ...(One big race every weekend 🫣🫣🫣🫣) Hehe 😆 

A late try for Warrington made things a bit tense but Wigan hang on for the Win

Before carrying on with this conversation i would urge all involved to go to RP search and type in Quito, have a look at its results and see if you can glean anything from those. From my perspective reading the above- My initial impression is that the pedantic is nearer the mark specifically on speed than either Rainman or the chef 😁 but we must remember that no one is wrong if their methodology works ie makes a profit.
Quito | Race Record & Form | Racing Post
 

Yes, it is all fascinating / frustrating.
You are right, speed is speed, but when calculating the going allowance for the meeting, you have to take the class of all the races into account.
I'm trying to carify the logic muself so if I put it in writing it might make some sense (or maybe not).
Let's take an hypothetical example where one day all races are class 1and the following day all races are class 6. Let's assume that the horses run as expected based on their grade, i.e. the class 1 horses will run faster than the class 6 horses. Let us also assume that the going is the same on both days, heavy. This means that the horses will run much slower than standard.
Day 1 - let's say that the races will be run 10 seconds below standard. This will be due to the heavy going so we will calculate the going allowance as 10 seconds.
Day 2 - let's say that the races will be run 15 seconds below standard. Without any adjustment for the class of horse running then the going allowance will be calculated as 15 seconds.
The class 6 horses will end up with the same speed figure as the class 1 horses which is not right. To overcome this we have to adjust 1 of the times by 5 seconds to account for the difference in class.
 

Yes they'd be equal of course ....but the standard time for class 1 would be 100 and Usain ran that giving a speed rating of 100.....but the standard time for class 3 would be around say 80(11 secs)  .....and you ran 1.2 secs faster giving you a speed rating of 100 !!... Which yes of course now means you can compete against the best .....speed ratings in it's best essence (Including class ..lol 😆)
And the importance of that is ......you cannot produce a going allowance and adjust the time ran  accordingly unless you know the par for that individual class ..... ..you can't do it 

My head has just exploded reading all this.

Kamboo 45/1 5paces bet365 for me 

The analogy I always use is an athletics track .....imagine a class 1 meeting over 100m..has Usain bolts etc ....the average time will be 9.8 secs .....that's the standard time ....but if you run for say Swindon and you run at the same stadium .. same distance but your meeting class is saying class 3 .....your runners average time for 100m will be say 11.00 secs .....that's your standard time ...so class has a big effect on time 

No offence taken, I'm open to any constructive critiscm. Generally my numbers do seem to make sense.
The going allowance is 3.01 secs per mile (0.376 per furlong). This is fairly close to the adjustments that Nick Mordin used.
Ultimately I want to create my own standard times but that is further down the road.
 

I've just been patiently watching the ground from the side lines ......it went soft which went in favour of the o brien horse in the oaks but has missed the rain so steadily dried to good sft ...bordering good if rain stays away  .......backed the first and 2nd rated in the oaks so that returned a winner and I had been put off ambient friendly because of ground but that's changed now so it's top two again now and I've totally ruled out city of Troy after the o brien debacle so it's  (ambient friendly and ancient )....no point ruining a good formula ...cmon the beauts !
Looking back at the results there's been so many times when the winner has come from top two rated regardless so for the rest of summer that's the rule and cross doubles on all races .(Also done on these races )...I might even carry over a small portion of any winnings to the following weekends top 2 on top of my normal stakes to boost potential winnings until about September when the form starts to lessen ....now til sept have been most profitable historically .....and it's a good way to get involved in these top races without ...over thinking 🤔 it lol 

yes i took it medium stake , 3,50 odds is a probability of 28% , Kokki is a big server just like Fritz so I feel there is value , hopefully he'll serve first , obviously if it was a player like Gasquet or average server I would not have played it ; it's a bit of a " gimmick " bet but still feel it should be 2,50 not 3,50.

Fritz - Kokkinakis 
My bookie (French Betclic) has : 1st player to 10 points , Kokkinakis @3.50 
Fritz is a huge server , but so is Kokkinakis , so it's more like who will win the coin toss and serve first , so 3.50 seems huge , any opinion ?? did i miss something? thanks

I was being a bit casually dismissive, largely because I can probably count my remaining BOG bookies on the thumbs of one hand. But I do think our approach so far has lent itself to getting on horses at good prices that have gone off quite a bit shorter.

Work I've done in the past shows that BOG is quite crucial. This might not be so much the case now that BOG is not available the night before the race.

I normally leave mine to the morning of the race as that is the only time that BOG is available. I suppose it depends how important we think BOG is.

I assume it can only be the calculation of the going allowance, I adjust my times based on the class of the race for all races of a meeting and then calculate the going allowance, not sure how @Zilzalian calculates his

Both runners placed for me though I wouldn't bend down to pick up my place return from Paddy on You Got To Me if I saw it lying in the street! 
The 25/1 on Dance Sequence was a bit more worthwhile at least.
An interesting mix here on the form v speed front I think. Quick commentary on the placed horses (at least one firm paid to 5th place).
1 - Ezeliya - Well done to RW who had it top rated with the fav (who could only manage 6th). Only 9th for the RP and bang last for the other two so ended up bottom of our "averaged" ratings. It showed up as 2nd in our highest individual rating table so at least showed the merit of looking from that angle.
2 - Dance Sequence - a nice solid e/w bet at 25/1 given the SP. 2nd for a couple of us but only 9th on the form figures. Unlike their consensus on the winner, Zil had this 2nd but Clarkey only 5th. Any obvious reason for that difference given they're both based on speed?
3 - War Chimes - a nice e/w return for the cash out king! Zil's 8th was the highest opinion any of us had on this one.
4 - You Got To Me - Needed it's extra place. Again our 2 speed-heads had the same rating and it was in everyone's top 5.
5 - Caught U Looking - Heavily backed in to 16/1. Not really on our radar but the RP figures had it in 3rd.

Fair enough. When i first started doing speed figures (The year before Dr Devious won the derby) i used to have mine to half stakes and mine combined with SR for the other half, i still do on many occasions because i use SR to allow for going corrections if that makes sense. I have never been able to conclusively prove to myself that one is better than the other. Sometimes mine win out sometimes the combined wins out so spitting of stakes seemed the logical solution.

Both runners placed for me though I wouldn't bend down to pick up my place return from Paddy on You Got To Me if I saw it lying in the street! 
The 25/1 on Dance Sequence was a bit more worthwhile at least.
An interesting mix here on the form v speed front I think. Quick commentary on the placed horses (at least one firm paid to 5th place).
1 - Ezeliya - Well done to RW who had it top rated with the fav (who could only manage 6th). Only 9th for the RP and bang last for the other two so ended up bottom of our "averaged" ratings. It showed up as 2nd in our highest individual rating table so at least showed the merit of looking from that angle.
2 - Dance Sequence - a nice solid e/w bet at 25/1 given the SP. 2nd for a couple of us but only 9th on the form figures. Unlike their consensus on the winner, Zil had this 2nd but Clarkey only 5th. Any obvious reason for that difference given they're both based on speed?
3 - War Chimes - a nice e/w return for the cash out king! Zil's 8th was the highest opinion any of us had on this one.
4 - You Got To Me - Needed it's extra place. Again our 2 speed-heads had the same rating and it was in everyone's top 5.
5 - Caught U Looking - Heavily backed in to 16/1. Not really on our radar but the RP figures had it in 3rd.

hello all if you think Osin Murphy is going to have 1 winner at Epsom he has 5 rides today PP is giving only 1.8 but WH is giving 2.25 this bet must
have a chance he had 3 winner yesterday not bad prices
good luck what ever you do

I am quite happy to have 2nd and 4th as my top rated my initial bets 25/1 the 2nd and 18/1 on the 4th Well done to Richard for getting the winner.

Wow, the fav has been shortening quite a bit but Dance Sequence is in to 10/1 now! Reviewing the race from the "experimental" value rating, You Got to Me remains the best bet at current prices but Treasure at 25/1 and Rubies at Red at 10/1 now look more appealing than they did. 
Not tempted to back another runner yet though I'd be backing Treasure at 25/1 e/w if it was combined with the better place terms.

I did think that "War Crimes" was a bit of a bleak name to give a horse! 

There is £100 waiting, I added a bit to it, see how it goes.