robertob

Thanks mate. Slightly disappointed with the run of COM, was he half a pace maker for Churchill also? Though also disappointed with myself as whole week i fancied Ulysses strongly but then went against him as I thought the rain does may take the sting out of his kick. Well, been wrong. That's racing. 

Shame things never went to plan BUT what a stunning write up.

3.35 York: Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes, 1m 2f
Cracking renewal and five of the seven starters have strong credentials to land the big pot. Eclipse winner and King George runner-up Ulysses sets the standard in my mind. Drop in trip will suit after being outstayed at Ascot by star filly Enable. 
He travelles strongly through his races and no more so at Sandown when wearing Barney Roy down. Slight concern is the rain coming. He obviously has fine form with cut in the ground in the book, however to my eye is clearly at his best when the ground is fast.
Whether Barney Roy truly wants 10 furlongs remains to be seen. Any rain will hinder his chances I believe and while he is certainly a top class colt I don't think he should be the favourite.
2000 Guineas winner Churchill returns after being taken out at Goodwood and a lackluster performance at Royal Ascot. He is by Galileo so the step up to 10f may not be as big an issue as some commentators make it out to be. He also has form on slow ground in case the rain would have a big impact.
However how much more can he improve for the new trip? He's already had 9 career starts and his target was clearly the Guineas.
Aiden O'Brien's "second" string, Derby runner-up Cliffs Of Moher appears to be a more interesting contender. He probably was a bit unlucky in the Eclipse when he finished fourth, as he was badly hampered in the middle of the race and lost all momentum. 
He's still only had five runs and can still improve. 10f on any sort of ground will suit and interestingly he is the only one who already matched a 112 top speed rating that otherwise only Ulysses has been able to achieve. 
The filly Shutter Speed beat Enable earlier the year and that sort of performance gives her a chance. Nonetheless she has a bit to find with the boys I feel. It's a tough task for her, though interesting to see a tongue tie applied for the first time. 
You can't fully discount Tattersalls Gold Cup winner Decorative Knight. He was well held in the Eclipse Stakes after clipping heels midterm. Could run well for a big price.
Selection:
Cliffs Of Moher @ 11/2 Paddy Power 

2.45 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
This appears to be an open contest with a good handful on seemingly handy marks, however the standard is set by Perfect Symphony I feel, who does not get enough credit in the betting for his last two performances. 
He showed promise as a juvenile last year and continued this trend in two of three starts this year since returning to the track as a gelding. The last two at Pontefract, probably not quite getting the breaks when needed. 
I loved Perfect Symphony's most recent run a good month ago there over 6f, when travelling well but conceding first run by the eventual winner while he had to wait for the gap to open and show some elbows to go through, yet he found plenty once in the clear. 
Step up to 7f for the first time should suit on pedigree, his sire has a really good record over this trip and the dam raced over further. He seems to settle well in his races so over-exuberance shouldn't be an issue here. 
Selection:
Perfect Symphony @ 8/1 Bet365

2.45 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
This appears to be an open contest with a good handful on seemingly handy marks, however the standard is set by Perfect Symphony I feel, who does not get enough credit in the betting for his last two performances. 
He showed promise as a juvenile last year and continued this trend in two of three starts this year since returning to the track as a gelding. The last two at Pontefract, probably not quite getting the breaks when needed. 
I loved Perfect Symphony's most recent run a good month ago there over 6f, when travelling well but conceding first run by the eventual winner while he had to wait for the gap to open and show some elbows to go through, yet he found plenty once in the clear. 
Step up to 7f for the first time should suit on pedigree, his sire has a really good record over this trip and the dam raced over further. He seems to settle well in his races so over-exuberance shouldn't be an issue here. 
Selection:
Perfect Symphony @ 8/1 Bet365

2.45 Thirsk: Class 5 Handicap, 7f
This appears to be an open contest with a good handful on seemingly handy marks, however the standard is set by Perfect Symphony I feel, who does not get enough credit in the betting for his last two performances. 
He showed promise as a juvenile last year and continued this trend in two of three starts this year since returning to the track as a gelding. The last two at Pontefract, probably not quite getting the breaks when needed. 
I loved Perfect Symphony's most recent run a good month ago there over 6f, when travelling well but conceding first run by the eventual winner while he had to wait for the gap to open and show some elbows to go through, yet he found plenty once in the clear. 
Step up to 7f for the first time should suit on pedigree, his sire has a really good record over this trip and the dam raced over further. He seems to settle well in his races so over-exuberance shouldn't be an issue here. 
Selection:
Perfect Symphony @ 8/1 Bet365

2.15 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Incentive hasn't been able to get her head in front in nice starts, though she got mightily close at Bath back in May over 5.5f in soft conditions. That form looks rock solid with the horses around her that day franking it. 
She hasn't been able to reproduce this effort since, however a good fortnight ago at Salisbury she made an awful lot early on in softish conditions and was hampered in the closing stages. Seeing it in that context means it wasn't as bad a performance as the 5th place suggested. 
The three year old filly will enjoy a career lowest mark at Ffos Las on Tuesday. Cut in the ground and simple, straight 6f should suit her well. 
Selection:
Incentive @ 12/1 Bet365

Aug 15
Over £100 profit overall from 590 bets at the half way stage

 

Aug 14th
Blinding day with 15 winning bets, thats a lot of likes
Dan goes back to the top
 

Excellent stuff

2.15 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Incentive hasn't been able to get her head in front in nice starts, though she got mightily close at Bath back in May over 5.5f in soft conditions. That form looks rock solid with the horses around her that day franking it. 
She hasn't been able to reproduce this effort since, however a good fortnight ago at Salisbury she made an awful lot early on in softish conditions and was hampered in the closing stages. Seeing it in that context means it wasn't as bad a performance as the 5th place suggested. 
The three year old filly will enjoy a career lowest mark at Ffos Las on Tuesday. Cut in the ground and simple, straight 6f should suit her well. 
Selection:
Incentive @ 12/1 Bet365

2.15 Ffos Las: Class 5 Handicap, 6f
Incentive hasn't been able to get her head in front in nice starts, though she got mightily close at Bath back in May over 5.5f in soft conditions. That form looks rock solid with the horses around her that day franking it. 
She hasn't been able to reproduce this effort since, however a good fortnight ago at Salisbury she made an awful lot early on in softish conditions and was hampered in the closing stages. Seeing it in that context means it wasn't as bad a performance as the 5th place suggested. 
The three year old filly will enjoy a career lowest mark at Ffos Las on Tuesday. Cut in the ground and simple, straight 6f should suit her well. 
Selection:
Incentive @ 12/1 Bet365

N/R
7.10 Windsor: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Don't Give Up looks rock solid and in this field very hard to beat. He's lightly raced with a strong pedigree and won well on debut at Kempton's All-Weather. He followed up with a strong Handicap debut when runner-up at Newmarket.
Stepping up in trip is sure to suit him and there is potentially plenty of improvement left in him-. Only one other 3yo to fear in the field, I expect Don't Give Up to use his WFA allowance to full advantage.
Selection:
Don't Give Up @ 15/8 Bet365

4.45 Ayr: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Kentuckyconnection has won only once in fourteen attempts however showed promise when finally dropped to a more realistic mark the last two outings. He contested Group races earlier in his career and was fifth in the 2000 Guineas last season, a result that flattered him, as a consequence he had to race beyond his actual capabilities.
He can build on a strong runner-up performance at Newcastle in June, dropping in class while stepping up to 10f again. It's his first realistic attempt over this distance and on pedigree looks possible. Cut in the ground, as long as it does not become bottomless, should be okay. 
Graham Lee on board is in red hot form is a bonus. Kentuckyconnection has only to repeat his last two efforts to have a big say in the outcome of this race and as such is a big price. 
Selection:
10pts win - Kentuckyconnection @ 11/1 Bet365 
---------

7.10 Windsor: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Don't Give Up looks rock solid and in this field very hard to beat. He's lightly raced with a strong pedigree and won well on debut at Kempton's All-Weather. He followed up with a strong Handicap debut when runner-up at Newmarket.
Stepping up in trip is sure to suit him and there is potentially plenty of improvement left in him-. Only one other 3yo to fear in the field, I expect Don't Give Up to use his WFA allowance to full advantage.
Selection:
10pts win - Don't Give Up @ 15/8 Bet365

4.45 Ayr: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Kentuckyconnection has won only once in fourteen attempts however showed promise when finally dropped to a more realistic mark the last two outings. He contested Group races earlier in his career and was fifth in the 2000 Guineas last season, a result that flattered him, as a consequence he had to race beyond his actual capabilities.
He can build on a strong runner-up performance at Newcastle in June, dropping in class while stepping up to 10f again. It's his first realistic attempt over this distance and on pedigree looks possible. Cut in the ground, as long as it does not become bottomless, should be okay. 
Graham Lee on board is in red hot form is a bonus. Kentuckyconnection has only to repeat his last two efforts to have a big say in the outcome of this race and as such is a big price. 
Selection:
10pts win - Kentuckyconnection @ 11/1 Bet365 
---------

7.10 Windsor: Class 3 Handicap, 1m 2f
Don't Give Up looks rock solid and in this field very hard to beat. He's lightly raced with a strong pedigree and won well on debut at Kempton's All-Weather. He followed up with a strong Handicap debut when runner-up at Newmarket.
Stepping up in trip is sure to suit him and there is potentially plenty of improvement left in him-. Only one other 3yo to fear in the field, I expect Don't Give Up to use his WFA allowance to full advantage.
Selection:
10pts win - Don't Give Up @ 15/8 Bet365

Nice to see you back mate

Back after a sabbatical break off the nags... hopefully with a refreshed mind, the winners fly in over the next while. 
Two small selections at Galway today:
3.55 - Dream Walker @ 9/1 PP - Won this last year for the same jockey off 1lb lower. Ran earlier this week incredibly well when second having the run of the race against him. Draw isn't kind today either but it's a slightly smaller field and slightly weaker race. 
5.30 - Highland Fling @ 10/1 WH - Decent draw, still generally lightly raced on the flat and looks sure to enjoy soft underfoot conditions. Has won a Handicap off his current mark last year over 13f, though the additional trip shouldn't be an issue. Ran earlier this week with a lot of credit in a Handicap Hurdle so fitness is ensured.

Back after a sabbatical break off the nags... hopefully with a refreshed mind, the winners fly in over the next while. 
Two small selections at Galway today:
3.55 - Dream Walker @ 9/1 PP - Won this last year for the same jockey off 1lb lower. Ran earlier this week incredibly well when second having the run of the race against him. Draw isn't kind today either but it's a slightly smaller field and slightly weaker race. 
5.30 - Highland Fling @ 10/1 WH - Decent draw, still generally lightly raced on the flat and looks sure to enjoy soft underfoot conditions. Has won a Handicap off his current mark last year over 13f, though the additional trip shouldn't be an issue. Ran earlier this week with a lot of credit in a Handicap Hurdle so fitness is ensured.

AUGUST 2016 $2,853.00 $2,853.00 7 SEPTEMBER 2016 $5,279.00 $2,426.00 9 OCTOBER 2016 $7,487.00 $2,208.00 11 NOVEMBER 2016 $10,442.00 $2,955.00 6 DECEMBER 2016 $12,778.00 $2,336.00 10 JANUARY 2017 $14,790.00 $2,012.00 12 FEBRUARY 2017 $17,581.00 $2,791.00 8 MARCH 2017 $21,327.00 $3,746.00 2 APRIL 2017 $25,354.00 $4,027.00 1 MAY 2017 $29,055.00 $3,701.00 3 JUNE 2017 $32,128.00 $3,073.00 5 JULY 2017 $35,524.00 $3,396.00 4     Average Monthly $2,960.33  

1.35 Redcar: Novice Stakes, 6 furlongs
David O'Meara has generally a healthy record in these type of races. So Gabrial The Devil is interesting. Seemingly in need of the pipe opener at Chester a fortnight ago he should be sharper today dropping into an easier race as well. There is a bit of money arriving this morning, which looks a good sign.
His sire, albeit a small sample size, has a very fine record over this sort of trip and ground with offspring so I do expect improvement from Gabrial The Devil, which could see him go very close in an open contest.
Selection:
10pts win - Gabrial The Devil @ 16/1 bet365
........
3.20 Newmarket: Class 4 Fillies' Handicap, 1 mile
Top weight Fleeting Motion makes plenty of appeal in a weakish race. Ignore her last form at Newmarket in softish conditions which never suited and also came possibly too soon. She looked gutsy when landing a fair maiden at Doncaster and followed up with a nice 4th place in a good Conditions race at Ascot.
She came off a break that day and travelled like the winner just to get tired in the final furlong. A repeat of that performance should enough to be very competitive in this race.
Ground and trip will suit and a mark off 84 offers hope as there is potentially still a bit of improvement left in this daughter of Sepoy.
Selection: 
10pts win - Fleeting Motion @ 6/1 Coral
......
3.40 Ascot: Hardwicke Stakes, Group 2 , 1m 4f
Dartmouth over 12f on fast ground? Possible, but not a 5/2 chance in a big and hot field like this. Most intriguing runner is Wings Of Desire for obvious reasons. Runner-up in the King George last year, hasn't been seen since a subsequent off effort. 
The solid horse who surely appreciates conditions and is very likely to be good enough and have trained on is Ballydoyle's Idaho. This is his second start after a decent comeback run - this seems the ideal opportunity to land a top level prize.
He was 3rd in the Epsom Derby and close runner-up in the Irish Derby, subsequently scored in the Great Voltigeur Stakes last season. All rock solid form and as good as anything in this field.
I have slight concerns whether he'll be ridden with too much patience but hope they are positive and use his stamina as otherwise he may get rolling too late. That worth a risk to take.
Selection:
10pts win - Idaho @ 9/2 Bet365
.....
4.40 Newmarket. Class 2 Handicap, 5 furlongs
Favourite Jumira Bridge could easily have too much on his plate in this race. He landed the odds as expected in a Brighton maiden when dropped to the minimum trip and followed up with a strong win at Sandown in a hot Cl2 Handicap.
Things did not go his way at the start yet he was authoritive eventually. When last seen in a Listed event at York he was clearly not suited by the softish conditions, however fast 5f today will likely see him to his best.
He looks still capable of better and both speed- and RP ratings back this up. It's only his seventh run, the fourth over 5f, two of those he won - he's a good thing today.
Selection:
10pts win - Jumira Bridge @ 13/8 Bet365
......
9.05 Haydock: Class 5 Maiden, 1 mile
Race fit Najashee sets a good standard and will improve from his experience, however Godolphin's Big Tour makes more appeal to me in a race that shapes as one between the two market leaders.
This expensive purchase is obviously well bred and should be reasonably talented judged on a fine debut run at Kempton last season. It's fair to assume he is ready to go today with the yard having a strong record in maiden races this year and Bin Suroor enjoying a near 40% strike rate in Haydock maiden races over the years.
The step up to a mile will suit this Dubawi son quite a bit, so should be the decent ground. It's a bit of a gamble sometimes on these type of Godolphin runners, however at 15/8 I feel there is a bit too much juice in the price.
Selection:
10pts win - Big Tour @ 15/8 Bet365

Good luck with the Preakness Florien

4.05 York: Musidora Stakes (Fillies' Group 3), 1m 2f
On paper it is hard to oppose exciting Shutter Speed on the back of a very impressive performance at York last month, which also worked out extremely well with the 3rd Enable winning the Cheshire Oaks subsequently. 
However with the ground easing and further rain on its way it might be a little bit more an open contest than the odds-on price tag for John Gosden's filly suggests, mainly because Jim Bolger brings an intriguing contender in the name of Vociferous Marina over.
This girl has put the "wow look" already twice on my face in her  young career. That was last year at the Curragh when she cantered all over the field to produce a stunning turn of foot to win a 7f maiden.
And that was at Navan in the listes Salsabil Stakes last month when she looked still a bit green and raw but once in the clear power home in tremendous style from the back of the field which in turn earned her a higher speed rating than the one Shutter Speed - albeit eased down in the final 100y - in her last outing. 
Vociferous Marina clearly responded for the step up in trip after she bombed out on her seasonal debut run, though she was a big drifter on that day and things went clearly not her way. 
She has shown in the past that cut in the ground is not a problem, so the soft conditions won't bother her I suspect. She clearly is a big danger to Shutter Speed in my book as the turn of foot she has shown on two occasions now looks quite special.
Selection:
Vociferous Marina @ 5/1 Bet365

Nice One!

3.25 Wetherby: Class 4 Handicap, 7 furlongs
Dutch Artist ran a big race in defeat on his seasonal return at Catterick last month. He didn't enjoy the run of the race and wasn't ideally positioned, which makes all the difference at this track. So his 3rd place is probably better than the bare form.
Only one win to his name so far, but he remains still low mileage for a five year old and ran a handful of stormers last season, suggesting his turn could come soon. He's dropped another pound in the mark, which sees him racing of a career lowest mark off 76 now.
Conditions tomorrow should work be fine though the draw is wider than ideal. However with a early pace that he possesses, he should plenty of options.
Selection:
10pts win - Dutch Artist @ 11/2 William Hill
......
5.50 Windsor: Class 4 Handicap, 1m 2f
Top connections, top entries, to form: Crowned Eagle should be way too good for the opposition in this race. Of course fitness has to be trusted and there is always a question mark whether these young horses have wintered well.
However, I waited for the return of this lad for a while and would have expected him to be odds-on in a race like this, so I'm happy to to take the risk.
Crowned Eagle was third behind Barney Roy on debut - strong form, given that we do know how smart this Barney Roy turned out to be. He got off the mark at the third time of asking at Kempton. A nice piece of form too: the runner-up won subsequently and was thought good enough for a spin around Meydan, is now a 90 rated individual.
With further progression assumed for experience, age and the step up in trip, the current mark of 85 looks potentially well below what Crowned Eagle is capable of. Only slight concern is the fast ground.
Selection:
10pts win - Crowned Eagle @ 2/1 Skybet

2.30 Lingfield: Derby Trial, 1m 3.5f
You had to be impressed with Sir John Lavery's maiden success at Gowran Park last October, but he's a very short price for a yard that we know doesn't send their big guns to Lingfield. We haven't seen him this year yet too, so you got to have allot of trust - which I don't have and therefore think he's worth to take on.
John Gosden's Tartini was a fair 4th on his return in the Epsom Derby Trial, he may well improve for the run and will probably be seen in better light here stripping fitter and hopefully enjoying a bit more in-runging luck.
However for a price I do feel is over the top the bin Suroor's Best Solution makes most appeal. It's not ideal that he has to give weight away, but the Kodiac colt is head and shoulders above the rest on 2yo form where he ended the year with an excellent runner-up effort in the Group 1 Criterium de St. Cloud.
His runs in Meydan may be forgiven, he just didn't take to the dirt. So a return to turf with a bit of cut in the ground could easily see him improving. He has the right profile to be a better three year old and a fair chance to stay the trip.
Selection:
Best Solution @ 12/1 PP