only1woz

As I promised, I went further with the last improvement and now can see the number of games where the home/away values come from
For example, Preston won 100% at home against similar opponents in 5 games and Charlton lost 60% away in 10 similar games
It's much better now that we can see the sample

A new important feature in UPCOMING section!
The values can be calculated against teams similar to the current opponent not just against all opponents
For example, Lincoln won 70% home games but won 100% against teams similar to Bolton - today's opponent It might be useful!
 

Two for tomorrow
12.01. away lille 2.04 12.01. away farense 2.16

2 winners and a loser tonight. Plenty for tomorrow
11.01. away melbourne 2.48 11.01. home perth glory 1.88 11.01. home wellington 2.22 11.01. away notts forest 3.35 11.01. away wycombe 4.90 11.01. home inter 2.22 11.01. home lazio 2.12 11.01. away familicao 3.40 11.01. away dundee utd 2.12

Hi all. Had a few days off due to the festivities, I hope all your New Year shenanigans were as good as mines was ?
Missed a few bets, chelsea drawing with brighton would have been a winner, and no doubt a few bets in the lower leagues too but not to worry. Perth glory was a comfortable loser as they won 3-0, but a few bets for tomorrow as outlined below. Cheers
04.01. home sydney fc 1.94 04.01. away mafra (portugal 2) 3.00 04.01. away dundee utd 1.93 04.01. away ayr utd 3.80 04.01. away real madrid 1.93 04.01. away cadiz 3.40 04.01. away almeria 2.46 04.01. away huesca 2.66 04.01. home fuenlabrada 2.40

Only one before the turn of the year. Should be a few from New Years Day, but I'll post them up nearer the time
31.12. away perth glory 1.90

Okay, so first update of results is here. Good first week, which is unusual as whenever you go live with a system that's usually when it crashes and burns haha. Maybe it's waiting for me to put actual cash down before that happens. In fact, yeah, that's probably it ?
 
        HOME   AWAY     26.12. away gent 3.00     -£20.00   1 0 26.12. away west brom 2.00     £9.80   1 1 26.12. away sheff weds 2.88     £9.80   3 2 26.12. away wycombe 5.00     £9.80   2 0 26.12. home peterboro 2.04 £9.80       0 3 26.12. home ipswich 2.06 £9.80       0 0 26.12. away motherwell 2.24     -£12.40   1 2 28.12. home western utd 2.58 £9.80       1 3 28.12. away leicester 2.02     -£10.20   1 2 28.12. home ayr utd 2.20     £9.80   1 2 29.12. away chelsea 2.42     -£14.20   1 2 29.12. away brentford 2.16     £9.80   1 0 29.12. home wycombe 2.60 £9.80       1 4 29.12. away ipswich 3.15     £9.80   5 3 29.12. away oxford 1.88     -£8.80   1 2 29.12. away peterboro 3.30     £9.80   4 0 29.12. away aberdeen 2.56     £9.80   1 1                                                               £39.20 £39.20 £12.80 £12.80                               Home Overall   Away Overall             £39.20   £12.80  

Yeah, like I say it can be a bit volatile, but always nice to get a decent start with any new system. A few for tomorrow, a few more for Sunday and I'll update results on Sunday night.
 
28.12. home western utd 2.58 28.12. away leicester 2.02 28.12. home ayr utd 2.20

5 out of 7 
 
good start 

So, nothing better to do on Xmas morning than research bets for a system you are testing, am I right? ?
So here's the boxing day selections. Grid shows the DATE / HOME or AWAY / SELECTION TO LAY / PRICE in that order. I'll update results on Boxing day night and post selections for the 27th. As ever, any questions, anything unclear, just let me know. 
 
MERRY CHRISTMAS ?
 
26.12. away gent 3.00 26.12. away west brom 2.00 26.12. away sheff weds 2.88 26.12. away wycombe 5.00 26.12. home peterboro 2.04 26.12. home ipswich 2.06 26.12. away motherwell 2.24

MK Dons lose 3-1 but gain 9 corners to the hosts' 5 so the bet would have won even if the handicap had been negative rather than positive.
9 winners and 2 pushes from 17 bets, 2.95 points up with an ROI of 17.88% to advised stakes, 2.45 points up with an ROI of 14.41% to level stakes.

So, new system to test based on the other thread I've commented on. Will look after a while and see how it's performing - homes or aways may be better than the other etc, but will see how it goes.
1. Teams must be in top 4 in their league
2. Opponents must NOT be in top 4 in the league
3. Odds must be at least 1.80 for the top 4 team to lay
4. I'll post up the team - the odds - then will update the amounts after my results
5. All lays will be to a £10.00 lay stake, profit will be after betfair commission has been deducted
No possible bets until Boxing Day - Have a great Xmas everyone ?

In fact, I'll start my own thread

Mini update after the weekend. Barca and PSG both won 4-1 so that's a double landed in "week 3" with 2 games to come. Also, Celtic sneakily got "week 4" underway with a 2-1 win against Aberdeen at odds of 3.25. 2 more games to come in 2019, Liverpool's week 4 game against Wolves at 2.91 and Celtic romping into week 5 with a game against Rangers at 4.0.
Next update after those games when I'll do a sense check to see if I can continue this without any threat to my sanity!

I did for a week or two. Seemed very volatile. Can do great for a day or two then horrific for a couple.
Will have a further look if I get a chance over the next few weeks and report back.
 

Apologies from me as I messed this up and included the stake return in profit from the winning bets. Actual results show a small loss of £3.70 for the home selections, and a whopping -£186.30 for the away selections now that I've corrected it. Could definitely be some lay possibilities there then lol.
 

I began looking back through the Betting Systems thread since the start and one thing came up a lot in the first 25 pages Correct Scores Strategy. This is based on getting better value on home teams by betting on the correct scores in their favour instead. 
The first bet will be on Solihull Moors who play Ebbsfleet. My odds will be taken from Boyles so you may get better odds if you fish around.
To stake £30 on Solihull @ 4/9 Will give you a profit of 13.33. 
Taking 5 scores 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1 and Dutch them will give me a profit of 18.31.
Now Boyles have a bet that consists of groups of scores - 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, @ 8/5 and 3-0 , 3-1 & 3-2 @ 4/1. Dutching these gives me an extra score and a profit of 21.32.
Betting £30 (dutching) on the group betting will give me a return of 51.32. 
Bet 1
Solihull Moors v Ebbsfleet
Correct Score Groups 
1-0, 2-0, 2-1 @ 8/5
3-0, 3-1, 3-2 @ 4/1
£30 Dutched will give me a return of £51.32
 

I received a lot of criticism, obviously, and some referred to the fact that the complexity of the program is overwhelming for those who have just discovered football statistics (and not only).
That-s why I created a Light version of the software for beginners or for those that just want basic football statistics.
It works like "the mother software" with regular updates...etc but has only the main sections and inside sections, the main features.

Should be OK now with the "upsets" section.
I managed last week to check the Brasilian Serie A, last 6 seasons data, and I think it is good enough now to be added to the Live Stats software (96.45% goals minutes data accuracy - will be futher improved). More features will be added soon to Live Stats as I decided to focus on this for the next months, to be more helpful in preparing the next days.
Of course the 50% discount coupon CGMPL1901 for PL registered members is still in place for the entire next season   
 

In fact thinking about it, cash-out from a bookmakers perspective is genius. Some people are so fixated on guaranteeing profit that they can't see past just how woeful the cash-out price they're being offered is. If you think initial prices are -EV, then I'd suggest cash-out prices are worse by orders of magnitude.

Irish matches tonight. No odds on the tool so have had to estimate what they might be.

Weekend selections. No odds for Irish matches tomorrow night, but will put them up tomorrow teatime with estimated odds if the tool isn't showing them yet.

So, Lyon scored too early to be matched so no bet there, both Irish games won. Saturday and Sunday selections are...

Winner in France, here's Fridays selections

 

Didn't get matched in the 3 portuguese games, but they would have been winners too. Tonights match in Ireland was a winner with a 95th min penalty lol. Will show that on the weeks result update after next weekend.