only1woz

I've been a bit bored this week, off work for the UK holiday this week. Not much to do, so trawled through the forum and came across my old system test. 
 
I'm going to give this a go again until the end of the season. Would love to make profit, but will be happy to just gain info and see what works (if anything!) to refine for next season. I got frustrated with it last time, as it's very much an up and down system, but looking to be more patient and positive this time!
Last time, the first season produced a profit of around £150.00 roughly.
Same selection criteria before, matches where the last 5 matches between the same 2 teams have produced AT LEAST four over 2.5 goals results. I originally was testing for an overs/under system, but it seemed to throw up a lot of wins for either team. Noticed after a while that it also performed better with no lays of 6.00 or above.
Will test for most European leagues, also English lower leagues. All prices from Betfair, where I now have 2% commission instead of 5% so that should help a little. Lays will be for £10.00 for the sake of records for the system, but NO MONEY WILL BE STAKED AT THIS POINT, and I would strongly recommend no one follow with actual bets this time around, but if anyone feels the need, it should be minimal stakes. Although the first season produced profit, it was £250.00 down at one point, before clawing back at the end. I stopped the 2nd season at -£200.00, so extreme caution advised.
Any questions or comments are welcome. I'll need to wait until at least Friday for first selections, and there won't be many but Saturday and Sunday should be packed.  
 

A new system from me which I haven't tested before. A total mixed bag of backs, lays, draws etc. although I will record how each "mini-system" performs individually. Qualifying selections are based on info gleaned from the fantastic CGM Bet tool. The only issue I have is that the tool takes it's odds from the usual bookmakers, so the lay prices for my lay bets will often be higher from Betfair which may distort my figures for the lays. I'll take  each lay bet individually, and will note if the bet was unmatched, if I look for a better price and look to let the bet go in-running in order to reach my desired price.
Each bet will be either a £10.00 back, or £10.00 lay (with higher liability obviously than the £10.00, depending on the odds). Odds are from Betfair. I'm not staking any money on this as it's just a test, but will put small 10p bets on the lays so I can know for definite if I would have been matched in running or not. As ever, I STRONGLY ADVISE AGAINST  putting any money on these selections until it has proven beyond doubt that it will make me a millionaire! (I was going to say billionaire, but let's not be greedy, eh?
As ever, any questions/comments are always welcome. Edited to add, all profits posted are after 2% betfair commission has been taken off.
Selections to follow .........

Two selections today;

16:20 Lingfield Toolatetodelegate 19:30 Chelmsford Gallipoli  

Don’t necessarily let an old pessimist like me put you off even trying it though I know what you mean about some things being so time consuming that you’re not sure whether they’re worth the effort.
i was doing a lot of paper trading as sport came back after lockdown but it got so time consuming I had to stop, do the analysis and make the appropriate changes to my live bets. It got to the stage where I was probably spending 3 times as long on bets I wasn’t placing as those that were carrying my cash! It was a relief to knock it on the head, worthwhile as it had been.
I’m always a little wary of simple systems, unless they are exploiting a clear efficiency in a market (see my bets on 4-6 cards at odds against which were gong well but seem to have hit a bump in the road).
Good luck with whatever you decide, I’ll follow with interest.

Hi mate, really appreciate the input.
Initially, it was looking at the last 5 games of the identical fixture over, at most, the last 6 seasons. If not enough fixtures in that time then it wasn't considered as a bet. I like h2h stats, but not keen on going too far back. League games only also.
It's not scientific in any way but it did, for a short while, produce some good results. I might just leave it, as it's quite time consuming as well. I have another system I'm going to start on here this weekend using info from the CGM bet tool which looks promising. Less time consuming and a bit more likely to be successful so I might stick with that one instead.
 
Cheers for your thoughts ?
 

I've been a bit bored this week, off work for the UK holiday this week. Not much to do, so trawled through the forum and came across my old system test. 
 
I'm going to give this a go again until the end of the season. Would love to make profit, but will be happy to just gain info and see what works (if anything!) to refine for next season. I got frustrated with it last time, as it's very much an up and down system, but looking to be more patient and positive this time!
Last time, the first season produced a profit of around £150.00 roughly.
Same selection criteria before, matches where the last 5 matches between the same 2 teams have produced AT LEAST four over 2.5 goals results. I originally was testing for an overs/under system, but it seemed to throw up a lot of wins for either team. Noticed after a while that it also performed better with no lays of 6.00 or above.
Will test for most European leagues, also English lower leagues. All prices from Betfair, where I now have 2% commission instead of 5% so that should help a little. Lays will be for £10.00 for the sake of records for the system, but NO MONEY WILL BE STAKED AT THIS POINT, and I would strongly recommend no one follow with actual bets this time around, but if anyone feels the need, it should be minimal stakes. Although the first season produced profit, it was £250.00 down at one point, before clawing back at the end. I stopped the 2nd season at -£200.00, so extreme caution advised.
Any questions or comments are welcome. I'll need to wait until at least Friday for first selections, and there won't be many but Saturday and Sunday should be packed.  
 

I got lucky yesterday and got on she's a dancer at 10.0 on bet365.
 
I like your post there the accountant - responsible gambling at all times folks ?

I got lucky yesterday and got on she's a dancer at 10.0 on bet365.
 
I like your post there the accountant - responsible gambling at all times folks ?

Back today with two selections. We are backing for €100, place & back.

16:50 Leicester John Clare 17:40 Lingfield Bird To Love  

2 places at prices of 2.69 and 2.35 and also Buniann winning at 6.62 wraps up the week for us.
Place Bank is +€1,042.79
Win Bank +€5,275.96

Not something I'd ever do. I'd suggest you're betting too much on your selections if you end up "running out" of money by the end of the week. So if you hit the stop loss on Friday (let's assume a Monday to Sunday week) then you can't bet over the weekend even if a couple of excellent opportunities present themselves. Then when Monday rolls around you start betting again if even the selections are more marginal.
Better to have an overall bank and approach to staking that means you can bet whenever a good opportunity presents itself.
Personally I've never really bothered with an overall betting bank, I just track how I'm doing and if I'm losing more than I'm happy with I look to where the losses are occurring and try to eliminate the losing bet types. I can see the merit if you're betting close to what you can afford but I'd still try and do it in such a way that I could bet 7 days a week rather than have days where I'm not "allowed" to bet on strong selections.
Obviously you should only bet money you can afford to lose. Personally the amount I'm actually willing to lose is less than I could afford to lose and the amount the bookies are willing to allow me to stake tends to be somewhere in between!

@Xtc12
Div bets returns P/L PREM 88 100.50 12.50 CHAM 84 32.00 -52.00 Lg 1 73 121.00 48.00 Lg 2 74 106.50 32.50 Nat Lg 55 26.00 -29.00  

Not that I want to remember it, being Scottish and all, but we actually famously lost the match v Costa Rica 1-0, and it was at Italia 90 not Mexico 86.
 
Kinda calls into question the rest of your points, if you can't get those basics right, no?
 
 

Last weekend, a colour blind user told me that couldn't distinguish between wins and draws and asked me if it is a chance to do something about. I did not feel very comfortable because I should think about this limitation earlier so I created a new tool that allows him, and everyone else,  to change the colours across the software.
It is very easy now to set the colours you want.  Here is just a random example.
 

 

These days CGMBET celebrates 9 years since the first international version.
The first versions of Home and Tables pages in the pictures below. ?
And of course, as every year, big discounts on the site, for absolutely anything.


 

The weekend £450 stake returned a juicy £780 for a £330.00 profit, this fairy tale cannot continue . . . can it?
Since the start of this second shift the balance sheet shows £1,610.00 staked yielding a nice £2,205.00 in returns for a £595.00 profit, representing a 37% ROI
Full results as shown;
22.2.20 12:30   Chelsea   Tottenham 2 1   2~1 9.50 22.2.20 15:00   Burnley   Bournemouth 3 0   1~0   22.2.20 15:00   Crystal Palace   Newcastle 1 0   1~0 7.50 22.2.20 15:00   Liverpool   West Ham 3 2   3~0   22.2.20 15:00   Sheffield United   Brighton 1 1   1~0   22.2.20 15:00   Southampton   Aston Villa 2 0   1~2   22.2.20 17:30   Leicester   Manchester City 0 1   1~2   23.2.20 14:00   Manchester United   Watford 3 0   2~1   23.2.20 14:00   Wolverhampton Wanderers Norwich 3 0   2~0   23.2.20 16:30   Arsenal   Everton 3 2   2~1                         21.2.20 19:45   Derby   Fulham 1 1   0~1   22.2.20 12:30   Brentford   Blackburn 2 2   1~2   22.2.20 15:00   Barnsley   Middlesbrough 1 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Birmingham   Sheffield Wednesday 3 3   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Bristol City   West Bromwich 0 3   1~2   22.2.20 15:00   Charlton   Luton 3 1   2~1   22.2.20 15:00   Leeds   Reading 1 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Nottingham   Q.P.R. 0 0   2~1   22.2.20 15:00   Preston   Hull 2 1   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Stoke   Cardiff 2 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Swansea   Huddersfield 3 1   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Wigan   Millwall 1 0   1~2                         22.2.20 15:00   Accrington Stanley   Rotherham 1 2   1~2 9.00 22.2.20 15:00   AFC Wimbledon   Blackpool 0 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Fleetwood Town   Portsmouth 1 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Ipswich   Oxford 0 1   0~1 9.50 22.2.20 15:00   Lincoln   Gillingham 0 0   0~0 6.50 22.2.20 15:00   Milton Keynes   Bolton 1 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Rochdale   Coventry 1 2   0~1   22.2.20 15:00   Shrewsbury   Doncaster 1 0   0~1   22.2.20 15:00   Southend   Burton 2 3   2~3 21.00 22.2.20 15:00   Sunderland   Bristol Rovers 3 0   2~0   22.2.20 15:00   Wycombe   Tranmere 3 1   2~1                         22.2.20 15:00   Carlisle   Morecambe 2 2   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Cheltenham   Mansfield 1 0   1~0 7.50 22.2.20 15:00   Crawley Town   Stevenage 2 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Crewe   Macclesfield 2 0   2~0 7.50 22.2.20 15:00   Leyton   Oldham 2 2   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Newport   Bradford 2 1   0~0   22.2.20 15:00   Northampton   Exeter 2 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Plymouth   Cambridge 0 0   2~1   22.2.20 15:00   Salford City   Colchester 1 2   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Scnuthorpe   Forest Green 1 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Swindon   Grimsby 3 1   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Walsall   Port Vale 2 2   1~1    
 
The "only looking" National League continued to disappoint, much as expected;
22.2.20 15:00   Boreham Wood   Yeovil 1 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Bromley   Wrexham 0 2   3~1   22.2.20 15:00   Chesterfield   Ebbsfleet United 4 0   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Chorley   Barnet 0 1   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Dagenham & Redbridge Solihull 2 0   1~0   22.2.20 15:00   Dover Athletic   Fylde 5 1   1~2   22.2.20 15:00   Harrogate Town   Eastleigh 3 0   2~0   22.2.20 15:00   Hartlepool   Notts County 2 0   2~1   22.2.20 15:00   Maidenhead United   Aldershot 1 2   1~1   22.2.20 15:00   Torquay   Halifax 1 0   1~2   22.2.20 15:00   Woking   Stockport 1 1   1~1 6.50 22.2.20 17:20   Sutton UTD   Barrow 2 2   1~2   Since the start, £240.00 staked have returned a meagre £130 to collect. ROI minus 46%
 

Yes, it was not very difficult and this new feature helps a lot the upsets hunters
It is possible now to save/load the default settings. (please use with caution as it was not time to test it completely)
 
I noticed lately that many advanced users are interested in the Upsets module. Not only because it allows to check when happened, the teams that did it more then another..etc but also allows you to see if would have been a good idea to back or to lay upsets in different leagues
In the example below I checked the Premier where the favourites, with odds <2.00, did not win away. (with green are the next games where big favourites play away)
How to read the results: In 48 possible upsets, 19 happened to be upsets and our return would have been approximative equal with the total stake
I have check all the big leagues and can tell that only Spain (because of Barca) has been profitable to back the big underdog at home.
 

The EXPORT is very flexible now and can export almost everything in XLS or CSV.
As users requested, I added the teams' codes in order to handle in their own projects the teams' names changes.
Chile, Ireland 1,2 and Japan 1,2 are ready for the next season!
 

Only1woz, thank you
the new fixtures are usually added with around 1 week before. Prbably this saturday  your preffered league will be there.
 
Now, about a big improvement in the Tables section:
The old table can be extended/collapsed now to see the opponent's in the home vs away tables
Ex: Hoffenheim has the next game away with Freiburg. We see at a glance that did better away since Freiburg did worse at home comparing to overall results
Might be very useful
 

£550 staked returned £545.
7 winning correct scores from the 55 selections, with B365 closing odds between 9.00 & 6.00. ALMOST breaking even in such a high mark-up area is good going I reckon.
The Conference (sorry! National League) was the difference between profit & loss, showing a complete blank return from the 12 games. I've said before that the Championship provided poor results using this technique, but that loss pales into insignificance when compared to the National League where the last 3 fixture days have yielded 35 straight failures.
This season's returns league by league (since 1st January)
Premier League,  50 bets, 8 winners, +0.28 returned per each 1 point bet
Championship,  51,  4,  -0.46 for each 1 point bet
League One,   56,  8,  +0.14 per bet
League Two,  72,  13,  +0.25 per bet
National League,   59,  3,  -0.65 per bet
ALL:  288 bets, 22 points loss
ALL (without National League):  229 bets, 16.5 points profit.
I'm inclined to keep this going for a while yet, but I'll not bother with the lowest league!
 

Excellent results for the Suggestions module over the week-end (18 games +35% yield), again, but I will not insist because there is not any intention to give tips but just a few games to think about, to dig deeper and to make the best decision.
 
Many asked if possible to back-test the filters they created in the UPCOMING section. The answer is YES, but it is not so obvious (my bad) so I just wanted to introduce a new video-tutorial that will learn you how to back test the filters.
I considered a very simple case when I am interested to check what would have been the results last month if I had bed on home teams, within "My Leagues" list, based on the following filter:
1.  Home team won at least 50% of the home games against similar opponents to the current opponent
2. Away team lost at least 50% of the away teams against similar opponents to the current opponent
If it is still something not clear please let me know.
 
 
 
 

As I said many times, I am strongly against  blindly follow tips without make your own deep assesment.
The "Suggestions" module of my software just applies a few set of rules (written by me of course) then provide a few suggestions. Of course I keep an eye on the output to not be extemely strange "suggestions". The start, first 2-3 weeks, was extremely bad (it was -70% at some moment) but after a few changes it seems OK and now we have around -10% yield from almost 70 games. The last 30 days (42 bets) had +13% overall with an incredible 75% on draw maket from 12 games    
Again, this module just gives a few games, selected based on some stats, without taken into consideration the last info..etc (here is your work)
 
The "Suggestions" module gives today 9 games to think about, more than usual.
In particular, I am very interested in Inter and Real games where the software indicates a great value on draw. Might be strange bet but did not exclude the bets because the program has given a 75% yield on the draw market last 30 days (12 games).
Please make your own analysis then play accordingly.
 

A few for tomorrow
25.01. home gent 1.92 25.01. away rotherham 2.60 25.01. home ipswich 2.14 25.01. home lens 2.04 25.01. home motherwell 2.42

Midweek selections
20.01. home west brom 1.92 21.01. away wycombe 4.00 22.01. away fulham 1.96

17.01. home fulham 1.95 17.01. away monchengladbach 2.68