sodabrab

Before I get into the Huntingdon race just a quick look back on the Aintree bumper on Friday. First of all the selection You Too Bonny Lass ran way below her debut run at Hereford and was a big disappointment. The turn of foot she showed that day wasn't there on Friday and connections might be wishing they had sent her to the sales instead. Maybe she will turn out to be a one race wonder, but it will be interesting to see what she does next and if she can bounce back. 
The winner paid a small bit of his price tag back and I thought it was a good effort from Garry Clermont considering a 2m1f bumper isn't going to suit him. He will be interesting to follow next season under rules. Dino Boy made him work very hard for the win and it was a good effort from him as well as Granny's Secret in 3rd and Roseisaroseisarose in 4th. Those 4 pulled well clear of the rest who were headed by Merchant House who as I thought was not suited by this test. The form of these point-to-point bumpers have been very hit and miss going forwards, but this one could be worth following the form of in future.
I'm pretty certain this Huntingdon race used to be restricted to horses from the local pointing areas, but this year horses from all over the country have been allowed and it is two of those who head the market. Saffron Wells is odds on as I type. Ahead of the Cheltenham race I thought he would cope with the drop down in trip to 2m, but he didn't and all he did was stay on behind Sam Cavallaro. The 2nd to Herbert Park is good form as well which came the weekend before the Cheltenham effort. For me they are the best two pieces of form in the race and he is the right favourite.
Bletchley Castle has two ones next to his name and he won those races by 18L and 30L. The problem for me though is he didn't beat very good horses with Fair Exchange badly out of form this season and Mirs Choice just not very good. He ran in Hunter Chases at Taunton, where he achieved little in coming a distant 2nd to Master Baker, and at Stratford where he pulled up. His jumping over rules fences isn't the best and that could be an issue round here. I'm not sure he truly stays 3m but he might get away with it round here.
Bletchley Castle is a front runner, but so is Knockedoutloaded and they could take each other on. He loves Peper Harow as he won for the 3rd time and the value 10 days ago, but the odds on favourite who had beaten him by 12L at Northaw fell at the 5th so it might have been a lucky win. He does have Gina on top which is a big plus, but his form is nothing special. 
The fact Blackwood Rover is rated 72 shows how poor his form was the last time he was seen under rules. He has won his last two points so does have that going for him. He was all out to win them though one over 2m4f and one over 3m. I'm not sure he's desperate for this trip and I would be more interested in him in a weak handicap over the summer than in this.
I sort of think Sand Blast is overpriced, but at the same time I don't really think he can win. He found winning hard under rules and he is 0-12 in points, but he has run well this season when ridden by Antonia Peck. The pick of the efforts was when they were beaten a short head at High Easter in March. He hasn't been at that level the last twice though and was last at Garthorpe last time out. The other concern was he was awful in two hunter chases last season. He might be worth a small bet in the betting without markets in the morning though depending on price.
Torran Na Dtonn looked like he might be progressive in 2017, but he went missing for nearly two years. He returned with a promising effort in December when falling at Cottenham and then fell at the same track later that month when getting into contention. I was at Charing when he was 3rd and I thought he went off way too hard and then paid for that effort late on. He did though make it further at Stratford than Bletchley Castle although they both pulled up. His last run he was well beaten by The Gunner Brady, but he at least has won since. Again he might not win, but I'm not sure he should be as big as 40/1 in this field.
I think Safron Wells is the most likely winner, but I don't want to back him at odds on so I will wait to see if we get a drift before having a bet on him. I don't think Sand Blast and Torran Na Dtonn should be so big in the betting, but at the same time I'm not sure either can win the race. Again I will wait and see what the morning brings as regards to their prices in the betting without markets. So at this stage there is no bet.

This is the group of death really 3 teams very equally matched here are my views tomorrow.
Senegal v Japan
I like Senegal -0.25 @1,96. They are such a physical direct running team, they can mix it up and like to play a long ball. So in the event that Japan put an early press on like they did against Colombia, Senegal can just go over that up to Niang who's very capable in the air. I've major concerns about two centre backs for Japan 10 man Colombia caused them trouble  with simple balls over the top which Falcao lateched on to twice and could have scored. Their right back also is a concern H Sakai he 's positioning sense was found out a few times against Colombia. the keeper Kawasaki is a liability and that was clear to see for anyone that studied Japan in the warm ups. Tomorrow Sakai and Kawasaki match up against Mane and  Sybaly down the left and Niang and they have serious pace. At the back Koulibaly and co are very solid and they kept Lewandowski very quiet. I think they are too physical, too fast and have the attributes to target where Japan are at their weakest.
Poland V Colombia
This is a tough one to call and whether Glik plays will be key. I'm not convinced by Cionek or Pazdan particularly Pazdan he seems to play a yard off the rest of the Polish defenders and that is a worry for me. If Glik plays that changes things as he is their leader and also excellent in the air in the offensive third. Millik was very poor against Senegal and I think his place is under threat and I also worry about Piczczek defensively. Offensively I rate Poland but they are very reliant on attacking down their left side with Grosicki he is a real threat. Lewandowski was poor against Senegal but he was up against Kouliblay who is a superb centre half. I think we will see the real Lewandowski tomorrow. Colombia were good with 10 men against Japan. Izquierdo was a threat and Falcao looked dangerous with the limited supply he got. James is their key player and he only joined as a sub reservations remain whether he is fit but I think when the chips are down he will come to the party. At the back D Sanchez was very poor for Colombia and I'm concerned about how he'll match up to Lewandowski. All in all I think these are two good attacking teams on their day, the shackles will have to be off tomorrow and the one who's bravest will prob take it. I think we will see goals because of this but also because of where they sit on the table this is do or die. I like Over 2.25 @ 1.88 and will prob bet in running on AH bet once I see how teams set up. 
 

This is the group of death really 3 teams very equally matched here are my views tomorrow.
Senegal v Japan
I like Senegal -0.25 @1,96. They are such a physical direct running team, they can mix it up and like to play a long ball. So in the event that Japan put an early press on like they did against Colombia, Senegal can just go over that up to Niang who's very capable in the air. I've major concerns about two centre backs for Japan 10 man Colombia caused them trouble  with simple balls over the top which Falcao lateched on to twice and could have scored. Their right back also is a concern H Sakai he 's positioning sense was found out a few times against Colombia. the keeper Kawasaki is a liability and that was clear to see for anyone that studied Japan in the warm ups. Tomorrow Sakai and Kawasaki match up against Mane and  Sybaly down the left and Niang and they have serious pace. At the back Koulibaly and co are very solid and they kept Lewandowski very quiet. I think they are too physical, too fast and have the attributes to target where Japan are at their weakest.
Poland V Colombia
This is a tough one to call and whether Glik plays will be key. I'm not convinced by Cionek or Pazdan particularly Pazdan he seems to play a yard off the rest of the Polish defenders and that is a worry for me. If Glik plays that changes things as he is their leader and also excellent in the air in the offensive third. Millik was very poor against Senegal and I think his place is under threat and I also worry about Piczczek defensively. Offensively I rate Poland but they are very reliant on attacking down their left side with Grosicki he is a real threat. Lewandowski was poor against Senegal but he was up against Kouliblay who is a superb centre half. I think we will see the real Lewandowski tomorrow. Colombia were good with 10 men against Japan. Izquierdo was a threat and Falcao looked dangerous with the limited supply he got. James is their key player and he only joined as a sub reservations remain whether he is fit but I think when the chips are down he will come to the party. At the back D Sanchez was very poor for Colombia and I'm concerned about how he'll match up to Lewandowski. All in all I think these are two good attacking teams on their day, the shackles will have to be off tomorrow and the one who's bravest will prob take it. I think we will see goals because of this but also because of where they sit on the table this is do or die. I like Over 2.25 @ 1.88 and will prob bet in running on AH bet once I see how teams set up. 
 

Great picking today homework has clearly been done!!!!

Marseille -0.75 @ 2.00 key pick for this weekend just in solid run in terms of performance and Caen over achieved v Boardeaux. Marseille have much bigger strength and better equipped to deal with 3 games in a week.
 
I also liked Nantes but price has been crushed so would leave that at current level as hard to know Bordeaux lineout with disciplinary issues.

Caen +0.5 @ 2.0 Bordeaux imo lucky to get result v Troyes and Caen played well whilst losing against Lille. There's question marks about Malcom impending departure.
 
Marseille -1.75 @ 2.10 played well on early ko Saturday didn't have to exert themselves too much and have much more strength in depth as you'd expect from line like this. Strasbourg confidence levels at an all time low.

Metz look extremely poor offering very little in attack and very weak in left back and left midfield positions, question marks about two central defenders as well. Seem to lack organisation questions for manager already. On top of that up front lacking quality Roux not hitting the mark only 1 shot hit the target v Bordeaux not good enough. I expect an easy win for Monaco and expecting them to beat the AH of -1.25 @ 1.82 Pinnacle