ultravires
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Posts posted by ultravires
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Re: away favor! You got yourself back on track after a couple of slips. Nice one. I too am on Italy today. Best of luck.
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Re: Champions League » Oct 20/21 The glorious champs league returns and I couldnt be happier. Stuttgart vs. Sevilla I have on many occassions backed sevilla this season and they are a team I really like the look of. They press the ball and play a high tempo using their good wingers to great effect. I have to say I have not seen much of stuttgart this year but I have no doubt they are not of sevilla's standard. As previously said Sevilla miss Renato who is a blow, Konko and one other. They retain the important players Capel, Navas, Fabiano, Kanoute and Negredo. They can really cement their position as the dominant team in this group and I think they will. Sevilla win 11/10 - Medium stakes Sevilla -1AH - 3.00 - small stakes For a side that can start quickly 5/2 on Sev/Sev HT/FT is crazy - low stakes. AZ vs Arsenal Much of what I said applies to Arsenal too. Quite simply they should be too good for AZ. A projected starting trio of arshavin, RVP and vela has my mouth watering. I dont know how AZ will approach the game, at home they may well give it a good go. Eitherway I am not concerned there is enough value in Arsenal here on the 'cap. Arsenal -1 AH - 1.8 - medium stakes. Liverpool vs. Lyon As a fan I have to be on Liverpool tonight. I am far from happy at the moment, with so many things but these European nights are what it is about. Anfield will be uzzing as this game holds a lot of importance for how Liverpool may progress. No Torres is an issue of course but the main man is back to drive us home. Lyon look in bad shape defensively so I am on liverpool tonight. I think we will start quickly and could grab an early goal. Liverpool/Liverpool 13/8 - Low stakes Liverpool win 3/4 - medium stakes.
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Re: Champions League » Oct 20/21 Right now, without team info I am looking at Sevilla, Rangers and Arsenal. Bayern also look tasty against Bordeaux. I would have thought Chelsea will give Atletico a good hiding too.
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Re: Against the Asian Handicap (ATAH) Very interesting Grex. I have a lot of respect for you system buffs who put in this much effort. Let's hope it pays off in the long run.
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Re: Five systems of fortune About stopping for a little while if you achieve your targeted profit. Of course there is sense in it if you look at it very literally. You set your target for a period of time and achieved it, so stop until your next period starts. But if you view it as that then I think you are limiting your chance to make more money and possibly allowing an element of chance dictate what you do. I view 'systems' as a mechanical way to achieve success based on statistics and consistency. It is not about striking hard and then ducking out for a while then coming back. You keep going, placing the template over matches week after week and see if the systems work. It is not for me to tell you what to do, and I am not sure if I explained exactly what I mean as best I could but to take the systems down for periods of time seems to me to undermine it as a system at all. After all it is your money going on all these markets, we just duck in and out when we please. There is I think a slight issue over stretching the systems on not so busy days and I remember you had concerns on doing that as well previously. I am not sure exactly what rule you could come up for in that respect but when I find myself looking for bets to place too much I get burnt. These are just my thoughts. I enjoy reading your thread and look forward to seeing how you do. I hope your success continues.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers - October 14/15
If this is true then I will look at some sort of cards market. This game should give the ref plenty of chances to get his cards out. Maybe even a red or two.anyone know where can I the information about the venue, referee that will lead the Uruguay vs Argentina game? because I heard that the referee will be Carlos Amarilla and he is known as a handy man for FIFA and Conmebol, he is a quite controversial referee, see Togo-Swizterland or Ukraine -Tunisia in 06´ or some dirty jobs for argie teams in conmebol competitions. He love to show yellow card to player, the average is 8,5. maybe the referee decision might change the flow in Uruguay vs Argentina game? -
Re: World Cup Qualifiers - October 14/15 No doubt this will, if not should, send people who are on them as well, panicking to back out based on my record of picking International games. Nevertheless I am on Belgium to win tomorrow night. Solid enough reasoning is mentioned in previous posts so I won't waste any more time you could spend covering yourselves. You've been warned! (I hope this will just be a comedic comment in passing while we reflect on winning bets.)
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers 10/11 October 2009 So you need Brazil to win your accy stoned? For a K I would lay Brazil at least for some money as we all know how unpredictable these SA games can be. I would probably lay 3 or 4 hundred pounds so that you at least come out with something nice if Brazil do fail, but dont take too much out of your K if they win.
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Re: Five systems of fortune Dan, unlucky with yesterdays matches. Where is the Vicente match? I cannot find it.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers 10th October 2009 Bolivia vs. Brazil Right, after yet another disappointing International day yesterday I am going for one more bet to try and dig me out of trouble. This is a bet I was looking at regardless of how yesterday went. Bolivia currently stand second from bottom in the standings with 12 points. Only Peru have achieved less this campaign. Much is made of the altitude of the Bolivia stadium and that teams often struggle coming there. I don't know how much of an advantage it can give, but they are 3-2-3 at home. They beat Paraguay, Peru and Argentina all convincingly. More recently they lost to Venezuela and Ecuador at home. Brazil have long ago qualified and this is just a test for untried players to prove their worth. In an attempt to minimise the effect of the altitude Dunga has apparently selected a team to best combat the effects. "Ramires, Josue, Miranda, Daniel Alves, Diego Souza, Adriano and Nilmar will receive rare opportunities from the kick-off." This team should want to prove their worth as they are genuine outside members of the squad and presumably will want to prove themselves. How much motivation a team will carry is always hard to judge. It is believed that Bolivia are going with a defensive approach this match, which they will presumably use to counter-attack Brazil. I don't know much of Bolivia beyond what I read, but at 4/5 I will take a chance on Brazil coming there for the points. Brazil win - 4/5 - High stakes.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers 10th October 2009 Rio fcuking ferdinand!
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Re: Five systems of fortune Seems like a fun bet to do dan, I'm following your HT/FT bets today. Best of luck to us all.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers 10th October 2009 Russia v Germany Russia are a team I really like to watch. The teams will be in contrasting mental states but I try not to get bogged down in that sort of thing. When I look at the teams I see a dynamic, pretty exciting Russian team with a top, top quality coach leading them. And with Germany I see a somewhat talented but not particularly exciting team led by a pretty average coach. This match will come down to today, nothing on past results or home/away form. I think this is just a match there to be won. Russia has a full squad available. Germany also near enough full squad to choose from. I of course dont know for sure how the teams will set up but it seems very likely Germany will go with one up front, probably Klose as they do only need a draw. If Russia get at them early on it may be hard for Germany to switch from a defensive mindset. Overall I much prefer the Russian squad and if they want it enough I think they can take the match. Russia win - 7/5 - low/medium stakes Ukraine v England As I said I am not too interested in the matter of teams already having qualified or not etc. England are a better team than Ukraine and having travelled that far, I would hope they will want to win the match. Of course something will be lost in that they have already qualified. Ukraine are decent enough to pose a few problems for England, especially as they will want to win quite desperatly. Capello has said he will start with the strongest line-up. I have to say that I dont particularly like any of the options to partner Rooney up front, but between them they could cause problems. I think Capello has driven a winning mentality into England and their quality will tell in the end. England to win - 6/4 - medium stakes. I also followed a previous post on Ukraine receiving the first card. Now to the big one! IRELAND V ITALY I am sort of in a tough situation. I of course want Italy to win, but I strongly stand against the dquad selection so to see them lose in a strange way would be good. (although I dont think Lippi would care). What I do think will happen will be what has always happened is Italy will win, but unconvincingly. In a fashion that gets the job done, but is not bad enough to warrarnt anymore calls for change. I dont agree with a previous post that Keane and Doyle are worth at least a goal. Frankly I don't think they are worth anything against what should be a pretty solid Italy. Equally though I dont think Italy will roll over Ireland either. It will be an efficient performance that will more than likely leave me wishing I had done anything else other than watch the match. Once more, Italy should be that bit too good for Ireland and get a narrow win (not that I want it 100%) Italy win 7/5 - low/medium stakes. Italy win 1-0 - 5/1 Italy win 2-0 - 9/1 I am taking it lightly this International week. Other than these bets I have done correct score in France match (1-0 and 2-0)
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Re: Keep money in accounts? I agree. 3 or 4 bookies for backing and then betfair for laying bets off is sufficient I think.
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Re: World Cup under20 in Egypt (24/09 -16/10) I dont think there are any regulations saying for instance that a great 17 year old cannot play for the U-20, after all a great 17 year old could play for the National team. Players move up and down between teams fairly frequently I believe. There is probably a strong trend that they do play for the first team they are eligible for though.
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Re: Keep money in accounts? In theory, having as many accounts as possible is the best idea. However for myself, keeping track on my money would be harder and more hassle if for example, I have it all in ladbrokes, then I want to move it all to pinnacle for one bet, then to unibet for the best price on my next bet and so on. As I am betting frequently the lag between instant deposit and 3 days or so withdrawal makes this a hassle for me personally. I could keep money in various accounts always, but again, for me I dont think this is necessary. I do have numerous accounts but I predominantly use Bet365 and will go to others for a particular bet if the price/how much I will place is worth moving the money. In my opinion 20 accounts is far too many for me. It depends if you are going to be betting amounts of money where the very slight difference in odds offered is going to be worth shifting the money, or having money in a lot of your accounts at all times, waiting to be used. I would have thought 5 or 6 would be sufficient anyway.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers 10th October 2009 Hmm, I will certainly have a long hard think before I back Italy to win here. Lippi has finally opened his eyes - at least just a little bit - and will drop the loathed 4-3-3 for this match. He has said he will try the ever popular 4-2-3-1. This is a step in the right direction, but the only area that really inspires confidence in me is Palombo and De Rossi holding the midfield. I look forward to seeing them play together like that. Pirlo again with be the trequartista, which is yet to convince me, although it makes more sense him being further upfield. Alongside him will be Laquinta and Camoranesi which makes me want to puke. Laquinta has been playing well as a STRIKER and I would never want to see him in a role that screams for deft touch and creativity. I dont wish to say too much about Mauro as in my eyes he shouldnt even be playing. Defence should be solid enough i suppose, although as individuals, Zambrotta and Legrottaglie have been shakey. The formation looks better suited, but it is the team selection again that has me wanting to cry. Where is the dynamism, pace and creativity? I can think of at least 4 or 5 players I would remove. There is not doubt in my mind Italy are far superior, but I would be shocked if they put on a real performance, beyond just getting the job done. The players simply arent there to go out and rip a team like Ireland apart. Italy will amble along and may well struggle at times if Ireland come at them. I of course will back Italy in some capacity as the nature of this team seems to be getting the job done, but I dont expect it to be pretty. WAKE UP LIPPI!
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Re: away favor! Congrats, keep it up!
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Congratulations on your good start Grex. I know you have done all your previous research and come up with Serie A as your second league to back. I am not too sure about this as a choice. Of course within reason, anyone can beat anybody else in football, but Serie A in particular has yet to settle down this season. I wish you all the best, and will follow with interest.
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Congratulations on your good start Grex. I know you have done all your previous research and come up with Serie A as your second league to back. I am not too sure about this as a choice. Of course within reason, anyone can beat anybody else in football, but Serie A in particular has yet to settle down this season. I wish you all the best, and will follow with interest.
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Re: Champions League » Sep 29/30 I am all over Inter away to Rubin. Drew with Barca in the first game, lost to Samp at weekend. They need a win and they will get it. Team news does not concern me, at 4/6 I dont care if Moratti starts up front.
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Re: Five systems of fortune I am not so sure myself on how to go about it. You could speak to JJ, I believe I have read that he has dabbled in doubling some of his picks.
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Re: Five systems of fortune I know exactly what you mean about days when there isn't much on offer and getting burnt by forcing out bets you wouldn't otherwise have done. As of now, your system/selection policy seems to have served you right. These games fall into that criteria so I would say have faith. As for my thoughts I'll let the stats talk for themselves on the obscure games you have chosen. Im on Juve to beat Genoa, and I think it could well go over. Not sure about Gijon going over however. I wish you all the best and I will follow with interest.
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Re: Advice for my bet! Laying it off is probably the correct thing to do in this case. It is just a matter of finding a balance between the two returns that satisfies you. I generally like to leave a 'cover bet' as just that - a bet to cover my stake and maybe a bit more if my original selection loses. Of course an even better way to do it would be in-play should your original selection go a goal up. Although in this case I would probably not risk that. In conclusion, yes I would be looking to lay it off. Just find a balance between the two returns that you like.
International Friendlies 13-15 November
in Other International Predictions
Posted