ultravires
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Re: International Friendlies > Weekend > Thursday 27th May - Sunday 30th May All the better for the unders. Thanks for the info.:ok
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Re: International Friendlies > Weekend > Thursday 27th May - Sunday 30th May Denmark vs Senegal Denmark are a pretty solid side. After this friendly they will depart for SA. They have named a squad of 26 players for this match and they are as follows: Goalkeepers: Thomas Sorensen, (Stoke), Jesper Christiansen (Copenhagen), Kim Christensen (IFK Goteborg), Stephan Andersen (Brondby) Defense: Daniel Agger (Liverpool), Lars Jacobsen (Blackburn Rovers), Patrick Mtiliga (Malaga), Per Kroldrup (Fiorentina), Simon Busk Poulsen (AZ Alkmaar), Simon Kjaer (Palermo), William Kvist Jorgensen (Copenhagen) Midfielders: Christian Poulsen (Juventus), Christian D. Eriksen (Ajax), Daniel Jensen (Werder Bremen), Jakob Poulsen (Aarhus), Michael Silberbauer (Utrecht), Mikkel Beckmann (Randers), Thomas Enevoldsen (Groningen), Thomas Kahlenberg (Wolfsburg), Dennis Rommedahl (Ajax), Jesper Gronkjaer (Copenhagen), Martin Jorgensen (Aarhus), Michael Krohn-Dehli (Brondby) Forwards: Jon Dahl Tomasson (Feyenoord), Nicklas Bendtner (Arsenal), Soren Larsen (Duisburg) While I am not greatly familiar with a lot of these players there are some notable players. Sorenson is a good enough 'keeper who is very experienced. Agger and Kjaer are very good defenders and I am sure would be great to watch together. Kroldrup is decent. In midfield Poulsen is experienced if nothing else, while Eriksen is a promising midfielder. Gronkjaer, Kahlenberg, Jorgenson and Romedahll are names I am familiar with but cannot expect miracles from. The designated forwards look like they could be the biggest problem. Tomasson and Bendtner are a pretty uninspiring partnership that I would not want to rely on too much. Pretty solid and could cause a few isssues but against bigger sides far from good enough. I am not sure just how this Danish side set up, but from what I know a 4-4-2 would be logical. They have a good enough spine to the team to be competative in the WC and should have enough to beat a Senegal side on home soil. I am not expecting thrilling football and perhaps the focus will be more on solidity than anything else but they have proven themselves in qualifying to be a pretty handy team. I myself can't see a rout so I'll take under 2.5 goals as opposed to a straight Danish win. Danish clean sheet looks appealing at 2.14 but I don't want to place too much faith in an unseen outfit. Under 2.5 goals - 1.85 - Betfair - Medium stakes. Correct score - 1-0 - 7.6 - Betfair - v. light.
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Re: International Friendlies > Weekend > Thursday 27th May - Sunday 30th May I like the look of Ireland against Algeria. I didn't watch the match last night against Paraguay but winning 2-1 against Paraguay is a good enough result to instill some confidence in me against Algeria. Fair enough they are in the WC and all that but they are pretty weak by all accounts. I will have to look for team news and some further info on the relative strength of Paraguay's team last night, but this is one I am looking at. Also I quite like Denmark at home to Senegal tomorrow...
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Re: International Friendlies > 19th May - 26th May
I think he actually mentioned laying Argentina as opposed to backing Canada - so a draw works equally well. Argentina are currently 1.14. I would not worry myself about backing them either.That won't be the line-up' date=' mate. I think Goal.com... I'm not sure what they do, but I doubt both line-ups will be announced that early. Besides, [b']Muscleman fancies Canada in that one. -
Re: Norway Tippeliga 24-25 May Yes, excellent work Jens. I too took your advice on Aalesund and Haugesund. Thanks.
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Very informative Jens. Thanks a lot.
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May I am getting really excited now. I was going to refrain from betting on this game - but was that really going to happen? The best thing Inter could do tonight is to come out and let the game flow. In an end to end match I would have to fancy Bayerns defence to crack first. In Milito and Et'oo they have two top class strikers that like nothing more than scoring goals - however that may be. To sit back and allow Bayern to pass the ball around is a bad idea. Their defence needs to be pressured and has shown that it is prone to errors. Exactly how Inter line up for this match I am not sure. There are a couple of variations in the system. It can be a 2-3-1 or a 2-1-3. This is not a huge difference of course - the main idea being to get Sneijder free from Bommel and Bastian as much as possible. It occured to me upon Zico writing about Hamit who may well hold the surprising key to this match. If indeed Hamit plays on the left, then welcome Maicon to the stage. He is by far the best right back in modern football. Lahm is perhaps a bit more assured defensively but Maicon is physically great and going forward second to none. This could be his time. I don't think that Hamit will give him any particular worries and if he can get forward without inhabitions then he will be vital. I'd love to see Balotelli get the nod as he does have the magic. As stated Pandev is a lot safer choice to get the game started. He will not do anything reckless and will help out. Mario could perhaps be called upon if needed. This is a big game for all these Inter players to gain the full recognition they deserve. They are seasoned winners that have proven a lot this season. They are fully deserving of the final place. Bayern have done very well this season but I just expect Inter to edge it in the key areas. Their players are just that bit better in my eyes. I'll take Inter to win the match at 2.44 - lightly - Betfair For fun I'll also take: Maicon FGS - 37/1 - Betfair And two scorecasts: Maicon 1-0 Inter - 110/1 Maicon 2-0 Inter - 150/1 Both Bet365
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May Zico - how do you think Bayern will line-up against Inter. Will it be three up front? If so, which three?
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May A very interesting debate going on about this match, nice one. I will offer my thoughts on the two sides. It is a final that at the start of the year I would have hated to see. However after the season both have had I am really looking forward to it. Both are looking to claim the CL to complete their treble this season. I am not a regular watcher of Bayern, but have of course seen their last few games in the CL. They have shown great togetherness in tough situations - such as being 3-0 down to Man U in the second leg. They have however had their fair share of luck along the way. Looking at the crucial decisions in matches they were very fortunate to go through against Fiorentina and it has been a combination of such decisions and magical moments from Robben that have got them to the final. Nevertheless they are here and will come to win. It seems to me that they only have one way to play and that is control the ball always looking to go forward. This is the way Van Gaal likes to play and it is nice to watch but they don't have much of a choice really. At the top level of football you cannot rely on a defence like theirs to keep you in matches. The problem is the CB's - they are just not good enough. Going forward will be interesting in this match. There is no doubt Robben has been playing very well and providing very important goals in matches. From what I have seen he has played from the right side coming in on his left. This will suit Inter perfectly as they can just play Zanetti at LB again and watch him tie Robben down. Zanetti is a master of this and this season he has proven to be one of the best players in the world. It may be better to play Robben from the left which may in turn stop Maicon from getting forward as much. I can fully see Zanetti locking Robben down this match. I don't exactly know how Bayern plan to line-up but when I have watched it has been 3 up front. Without Ribery that means Robben and two others. It may make sense to play Olic out wide and Gomez through the middle. Lucio and Samuel will be the two happiest players on earth if they play Gomez through the middle. Not to disrespect him too much, but these two have shackled Drogba and Ibra already this season and big physical players suit them perfectly. Gomez is certainly no better than the two mentioned so that would be great for them. In midfield is the key - as usual. Bastian and Van Bommel are good players - with Van Bommel messing things up and Bastian getting things moving. However Cambiasso is one of the finest DM in recent years. Partnered with Stankovic they will mirror the Bayern roles. In fact Cambiasso and Stankovic will probably both break things up and give the ball to Sneijder to get things going. I would side with the Inter midfield out of the two - just. This will be the key to the match I think. Going forward will be important for Inter. I don't expect them to at all come flying at Bayern but they cannot afford to just sit back too much, they must offer something going forward. Milito must of course play. He is the best goal-scorer in the world right now. I myself would then play Balotelli and Et'oo. Balotelli is a risky choice as he has the capability to be the best player on the pitch or the absolute worst. I don't think JM has handled him particularly well and will probably side with the comfortable and safe Pandev. Both teams have great mental strength and there is little between them in that respect. I think this will be a very close match and not one that I would like to call too clearly. I think Inter shade it in terms of players - but it will be very close. If we are all thinking and talking about how they will line-up etc then I imagine the two managers are planning how to surprise each other. I am not sure how it will be done, but I can only see Inter lifting the trophy to be honest.
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Re: World Cup Fantasy Football A great idea.
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Re: UEFA Europa League Final > 12th May The confidence put in the (purported) quality of the EPL is astounding. The strength of the EPL is really only 5 - maybe 6 deep. This is only because of the recent challenges of Spurs and to some degree Villa. The rest of the EPL is very average. Fulham are one of these sides. Just that they have made it this far is to be applauded but they are still average. They have had more than their slice of luck - which could be the strongest indicator they could win tonight. Atletico are a nightmare team. Probably one of the worst teams for consistency in the world but they have it in them to be a good team, maybe very good. They have the quality to rise to new levels on the night that Fulham could never hope to reach. This is really the determining factor in my mind. Fulham work well as a team, and it has served them well. I presume they will stick with the approach but I think they just lack the individual quality that Atletico have. It is a real clash of styles and will be interesting to watch. I stick with favoring the individual quality of Atletico's players.
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Re: UEFA Europa League Final > 12th May I have to say that despite being such a cataclysmic club, never far from absolute capitulation I quite fancy Atletico to do Fulham here. There is no denying they have the outstanding players on the pitch. I would name Aguero, Forlan, Simao, and probably Reyes before I even think of naming a Fulham player in terms of who can win the match on the night. Fulhams solidarity and approach has served them well over the two legged matches but I am very sceptical over who if anyone can win the match for them. I think Fulham will hand Atletico the initiative in the match and going forward Atleti can do damage. 2.18 is currently available of Betfair. I have not taken anything as yet, but if I am to get involved it would certainly be on Atleti.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > 29th April My problem with these second legs is that so much depends on the first goal. If Atletico score first then I don't know how Liverpool would react. They could easily just drop their heads and go on to lose the match knowing they need 3 and possibly not score at all. However not scoring against this Atletico side for 2 matches in a row really would be embarrasing. As highlighted above by Vila they are statistically awful and sometimes it is like watching children trying to defend. So having said that, surely they have to try and attack? Aguero is back so he and Forlan will be supported by Reyes and Simao in trying to score. Liverpool have striking problems and will have to trust Babel. I do think Liverpool can win this game but the odds are poor and I don't think they will qualify. I will be once more taking both teams to score - 1.9 Betfair and also - 2-1 Liverpool - 10.00 - Betfair.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27th - 28th April If I had my car attacked by Barca fans when coming into the stadium like Mourinho did I'd have been running all over the pitch after going through. Inter were by far the better side over the two legs. They did appear to have the more luck though.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27th - 28th April I really do not know what to expect from tonights match. I think it is always a lottery in a game like this. JM was somewhat pushed into being as attacking as Inter were in the first-leg due to Barca scoring first. Still they must be applauded for their approach to the match from there after. I think the best thing Inter could do would be to score themselves. Not in a reckless shoot-out for who scores first, but they should definitely be making attacking moves. I think they will and also that they can score. They will almost certainly drop the 4-2-1-3 for a traditional 4-3-1-2. Motta, Cambiasso and Zanetti will just be told to run around and try to stop the Barca midfield. If they can get the ball give it to sneijder. The Inter 3 are very experienced (Motta the least) and defensively are impressive. I would love to see JM surprise us all and play Balotelli from the start. This would give him the perfect chance to redeem himself and is more of an unknown entity than Etoo and Milito. I don't think JM will want to risk that though. Maicon played perfectly last week and will need to do so again. He is a wonderful right back but must really focus on not getting too caught out. I suspect Zanetti will be on the right of the midfield 3 so he can cover Maicon when he goes forward. Chivu will not be going forward too much as he is a more traditional defender. All in all Inter really just have to play the match out. Barca have to attack and Inter can try to play the ball around and be as bold as they dare. They must show some attacking life though because if they don't and then try to come back from 1 or 2 down it will be a lot harder. I only feel confident about a few things tonight. Both teams to score - 1.82 - Chivu to be shown a card - 2.34 Motta to be shown a card - 2.14 All betfair prices.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 27th - 28th April Despite my god awful performance in the Champions League recently I am venturing into the fray again. A lot has been said about this match. All the various tangents the match can go off in based on who scores first etc. The only thing I feel confident about is both teams scoring to be honest. Lyon cannot perform as they did in the first leg. They showed little venture even when they had an extra man. They of course have to win tonight so must be better. In the first leg Bayern could have had a comfortable cushion by HT if they had been sharper in front of goal. In the end it took a fortunate goal to give them the slender win, but it could have been comfortable. I do not feel confident in either sides defence , regardless of who plays, and given the attacking approach Lyon surely must take I fancy there to be chances at both ends. Both teams to score - 1.77 - Betfair
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Re: UEFA Champions League 20th / 21st April I have been awful in the Champions League this year. All wrong yesterday. JM came out to attack which I was surprised about. Going 1-0 down forced his hand, but even so the 4-1-4-1 was nowhere to be seen. It paid off for Inter and last night is the best thing that could have happened for the tie. We will see what Barca are made of now. I have gone over 2.5 tonight. There has been a lot written about this bet already. GL everyone. Well done to those who backed Inter outright. Very nice.
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Re: UEFA Champions League 20th / 21st April On the basis of a lot of posts here and also my own views in my previous post. I will be taking Under 1.5 goals at 3.2 (Betfair). I wasn't going to bet but have been coaxed out. Bottom line of my thoughts are that Inter will do anything not to concede tonight and Barcelona will not push too hard.
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Re: UEFA Champions League 20th / 21st April I agree that you cannot play Barcelona at their own game. If you come out and attack recklessly, it is over. Arsenal had to do it really because their defence is not good enough to even try and sit back, and consequently Barcelona were not afraid to attack as they knew they were btter than Arsenal. Inters defence however has more potential. They are a very mean side. Physically they are very strong. As Spooner says though, to sit back all match is not the best idea. I do think JM will not play his favoured formation tonight though. It has been speculated he will play something like a 4-1-4-1. This seems to sum up their approach perfectly. They will be tight and contained, but push forward sometimes. A very good move would be to put Maicon in right midfield. This would mean he can do what he does best, while not leaving gaping holes at the back. Zanetti would then move to RB with Chivu at LB maybe. Zanetti is tactically one of the best players in the World. JM may well ask him to try and stop Messi (if possible). I am not too sure where sneijder fits into the midfield in this system though as ideally you want him free. Being in the midfield with Motta would mean a lot of work off the ball for him which is not ideal. Cambiasso would sit which is fine. Motta would partner Sneijder. Pandev probably on the left which is far from great, I would prefer Balotelli. Milito or Eto'o up front alone. This system would be geared mainly at containing Barca. Not sure if this is how he will set up as it negatives a lot of what has been positive about Inter. It would be the best way to try and contain them though. Who knows JM may just name his usual 4-2-1-3 and go for it. I think this formation would be better saved for the away leg when a goal conceded is not fatal to the tie. I am leaving this match, but I would edge towards a tight match. I don't think Barca will be reckless tonight and Inter will absolutely not want to concede.
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites What about Sunderland? Would they not have qualified at around 1.7?
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites What about Sunderland? Would they not have qualified at around 1.7?
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Re: Italian Serie A Silly Season The draw is as low as 1.65 on Betfair. This really is crazy. Every week it seems there is an odds on draw. This definitely has more of a draw vibe surrounding it than Catania-Palermo. I just hope one of them can reinvigorate your faith in Serie A. At least with a credible draw.
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Re: UEFA Europa League 8th of April I think that is an excellent rationale from Vilamoura regarding the Wolfsburg game. 1.68 is a little bit short for my liking too. To pick out the both teams to score bet at a better price is the better option I'd say. I wish Betfair wasn't so crap at the corner bets offered. They never have any AH corner related bets. The corner markets mentioned in favour of W'burg look particularly tempting.
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Re: UEFA Europa League 8th of April The price on under 2.5 in Atletico/Valencia is tempting for such a volatile market. However neither side can defend. They are both so awful that it is not even worth them trying anything but attack. I feel Valencia have the better attacking players with, Silva, Pablo, Mata and Villa and also their ball retention is slightly better than Atletico's who I think are better off playing direct up to Forlan/Aguero. The only way I can see it finishing under is if the strikers have a nightmare. Having said that I won't be taking such short odds on the over. I think instead I am going to back Valencia to win the match. I think they have the better players on the ball and Villa has that extra bit of class the others don't. Their defensive injuries are a real worry though so I am going to keep the stakes light.
International Friendlies > 2010
in Other International Predictions
Posted
Re: International Friendlies > Weekend > Thursday 27th May - Sunday 30th May Sweden vs. Bosnia I don't really fancy this Sweden side much to be honest. Along the same sort of lines as the Danish side - but perhaps even less impressive. I obviously don't know Swedish but I have managed to find the squad list for this match. As far as I can tell most of the players are there. There may have been some withdrawals as Mellberg, Elm and Elmander have symbols next to their names. So that may be worth a closer look. Generally speaking all of the players who played against Wales are in the squad. I am not going to pretend to know in depth how this Sweden side line-up and play etc. I do know that without Zlatan they are light up front. They have the young Berg who is somewhat exciting but not top quality. They have a pretty solid midfield with Kallstrom, Wilhelmson, Elm, Larsson but again nothing out of the ordinary. Defensively you'd expect them to be pretty decent. They have only conceded 2 in their last 4 friendlies. Having played against Wales, Syria and Oman among those 4 games it looks a little more routine. They played a solid game against Italy losing 1-0. As I said I view them pretty similar to Denmark. Decent and Solid throughout but lacking in top quality players. I havn't been able to find any inclings as to how or who they will play but the style shouldn't change. Bosnia are a pretty tricky side. Unlucky to miss out on WC qualification and have some pretty gifted players. Far from possessing any in depth knowledge on many individuals I have watched them a few times and they have a nice style on the ball. Pretty talented as many of these eastern sides are such as Serbia, Belarus and Croatia. The squad includes the main players such as Dzeko, Misimovic, Muslimovic and Pjanic - all talented players. Beyond that I don't know individuals but they are very much of a mould. They are due to play Germany after this match and it has been noted that the coach may be saving the strongest 11 for that match and being a little more experimental in this match. They will likely still line-up in the 4-5-1 but just depends how strong they go. Primarily this will affect Dzeko most as he is their main players. Pjanic and the others are more likely to play I would imagine. I am more doubting Sweden as opposed to backing Bosnia. I just don't really rate them as an attacking force. I most certainly don't want to place too much faith in what could be an experimental Bosnia but there will be some strength there in the 4-5-1 and as mentioned they are pretty handy on the ball. Not much to play for in this match so I am expecting quite a drab affair. Lay Sweden (1.87) - Medium - Betfair. Under 2.5 - 1.94 - Medium - Betfair.