ultravires
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Posts posted by ultravires
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Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October A lot of interest in the Inter - Spurs game. I agree with some of what a lot of people have said. Inter have not been playing well so far this season, but this is certainly accentuated by how well they played last season. The whole team played well and I think a few players gave their best seasons we will ever see them play. Benitez hasn't so far been able to do the same with these players. He has shown smart judgement by putting Eto'o through the middle. To suggest he is unpopular at the moment can't be true - he is the only player winning matches. They have been a little lucky at times (like this weekend just gone) but they are a great group of players still. I haven't watched much of tottenham this season so am wary of judging too strongly. They will obviously come to defend and counter-attack. I therefore presume it will be a 4-5-1 with Crouch alone up front. Inter have the definite advantage in the key areas. Lucio and Samuel will eat Crouch alive IMO. He is tall sure, but I'd be very surprised if these two can't handle him comfortably. Lennon may cause a few issues but is far too inconsistent to be relied on. Maicon vs Bale will be interesting and a pretty even contest I imagine. Importantly, Eto'o who is on fire, will be playing against Kaboul and Gallas? That is a promising match-up for him and I'd say that will probably be the deciding battle. I'd guess Inter will see a lot of the ball and face counter-attacks from time-to-time. Inter, as we know, have a great D game and I'm confident of them handling everything Spurs give them. Inter can afford to press with a high line due to Crouch's lack of pace so I think it really will be A trying to break down B. Inter themselves aren't shit hot up front recently so I don't expect them to be free-scoring at all. I'll hope for a rise in the Inter price, and I will need a slight rise to take them. Instead of that I really like the price on the unders. Under 2.5 - 11/10 - Bet365 - 4/10
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Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October Thanks for your thoughts srki. Mauri is left-footed so we must presume he will play on the left hand side. This will mean it is he who plays against Ivanovic and Krasic on the Serbian right hand side. Mauri is attack-minded, but just not good enough in my opinion which is why I see little threat from him. Marchisio will be on the Italian right facing, as you say, Lomic and Jovanovic. Marchisio is an al-rounder, but in my view better defensively than attacking. So while you say Lomic is a bad player,I don't think Marchisio will worry him that much. So it may make sense to swap Mauri and Marchisio over to opposite sides of the pitch in terms of roles for the team which I suppose could happen. It would be a little surprising though. With regards to the formation Serbia will play, whether it is 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, I'm sure at some point they would both become a 4-5-1. I agree totally that Serbia must try and win the CM and if they do then they have a good chance of a draw in my opinion.
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Re: Euro 2012 > 12th October I am going to give my thoughts on the Italy match tonight. A little late, but I have been busy and not thought about it until recently. The confirmed line-up for Italy tonight is: Viviano, Zambrotta, Bonucci, Chiellini, Criscito, Mauri, Pirlo, Palombo, Marchisio, Cassano, Pazzini (4-4-2) First of all playing those wingers is insane and by far the biggest issue of the team. Mauri is decent sure, but not what you would want going forward out there. Marchisio hates it out on the wing but gets played there quite a lot. Neither are 'wingers' and they probably wont play like that. I'd guess they'll be more LM/RM and be very aware of their defensive duties - getting forward only when necessary. Creatively they wont pose much threat. D game looks O.K. Only real issue is if Krasic is on form and goes for Criscito it could be a rough night. CB's are starting to form a partnership which is promising. Not a really threatening team going forward though. Cass/Pazz know each other inside out, but in terms of support, Pirlo is the only provider in the midfield. I have read that Serbia are reported to be playing a 4-3-3. The narrow 3 in midfield will give them a chance to swamp Pirlo and Palombo which will go a long way to stopping this Italy side. The 'wingers' are not threatening and the Serbian full-backs would be happy to take them one on one. I would guess from that they will mount fast counter-attacks trying to catch Italy on the break. I am not sure about this match going over 2.5 to be honest. I can see it being tight. The Italy team is pretty conservative considering they are at home. I just don't think there will be the service tonight.I also think both will settle for a draw. Therefore I am taking: Serbia +0.5 - 2.05 - Bet365 - 5 points 1-1 - 11/2 - Bet365 - 1 point GL.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 15th September An interesting night. Quite a few guys did well. Milan were fortunate in my eyes. A bit more quality and Auxerre would have caused huge problems. The chance just before HT was mental. All the guy has to do is lift his head, square the ball and that's it 1-0. Then on who knows. Milan's goal was out of nothing really and I think if you sit in and press the midfield it is quite easy to stop this team working. KPB improves their midfield a lot just with his energy and runs forward. Glad I didn't get involved as I was looking at Auxerre +1 which would have lost. Some nice reads on the Arsenal game, nice one.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 15th September Thanks for the feedback on Auxerre Dak and Atko. It sounds as though they are going to go defensive which is of no real surprise. It is a shame they are missing that pacey winger as he would have caused problems. I have watched that Birsa a couple of times and don't like him at all. A defensive 4-5-1 can become a 4-3-3 counter-attacking approach very quickly, which is how Cesena played to such great effect. Doesn't sound to me as though Auxerre are going to do this though and will be a more regimented 4-5-1. They could however surprise us and dedicate 3 players going forward and everyone else defending deep. This is what Cesena did so well and the problems were massive for Milan. There may be potential for them to cause problems but I have decided against backing them. They have been hammered overnight from 10.00 to 7.50 (Bet365). I will however be watching to see how they set up exactly and go from there. If they are smart and brave there is something for them tonight. Thanks a lot for the info.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 15th September Could anyone enlighten me as to how Auxerre play their football generally? I don't watch French football at all. I see they aren't doing all that well domestically thus far, but I don't think that will be on their minds for their first game at the San Siro. Do they possess pace going forward because that is a good way to get at this Milan side on the break - as Cesena showed at the weekend? If they have the players to do so then I would recommend them taking a counter-attack approach to the match as Milan will push high and press the game at home. I am trying not to buy into this dream-team forward line. They didn't exactly click at the weekend but Milan will score lots of goals this season. Their back-line will look like this: Zambrotta, Nesta (likely), Bonera, Antonini. Not going to say it agai, but this is poor. When Milan don't have Nesta and Silva together they struggle. Gattuso has to be dropped, and it will probably be for Seedorf to give them a bit more going forward - maybe even KPB. What was clear to me is that when they were held up by Cesena, Pato, Ronnie and Robinho when he was on all had to drop deeper and deeper as there was nobody to link the midfield and attack. If Auxerre are possess the players capable to defend with organisation and then break swiftly I would consider them too large at 10.0 (Bet365). Any feedback would be appreciated.
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifying > 2nd-3rd September
This Italy team isn't the same one that drew with NZ, but they didn't look much better against IC last time. There is a another slight change up front for this match With Pazzini leading and Cassano and Pepe flanking him. I have given up wondering why Pepe keeps getting to play - but he does. I'm not going deep on this match as I'm sick of betting on International matches. But I do think 1-0,2-0 Italy are probably results. Can't really see them going mental and scoring 3 or 4. I don't know much of Estonia but the only way I can maybe see them scoring is from a set piece.Hello International Soccer 2010 Overall 29-16-9 +12.73 units (64.44%) Estonia +1 (+127) to bet 1 unit This is really just a shot at this, but Italy is running just about as well as France is right now. This is the same team that got a draw against New Zealand, anything can happen. Estonia is kind of good at home, and kind of good altogether. They got a draw against Portugal at home last year. They lost to Brazil just 1-0 at home last year. They've also beaten a few teams like Finland and Belgium. Seems like they are alright at home. Take a shot with this one. -
Re: UEFA Super Cup > Friday 27th August I wish I had watched this match now. I am very surprised that Atletico managed to win, even though they are pretty good in the cup matches. Benitez must have fcuked this up somehow. He played 4-3-1-2 which seems reasonable, even though the 4-2-1-3 worked very well last year. Highlights wont serve as well but I want to somehow see how this happened. Perhaps Inter just weren't on it last night.
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Re: UEFA Super Cup > Friday 27th August I don't know - I can see quite a good chance for Inter to get this match done. They are both due to start their season and I know that Inter have already played some pretty good sides. They just beat Roma 3-1 in the Super Cup. I haven't seen Atletico at all but I have my impression of them. Calamitous at the back, direct in Midfield and pretty dangerous up front. This Inter side have dealt with sides far superior, it is just a question of how prepared they are. I've taken them with small stakes but the price has dropped pretty quickly. There are too many issues with Atletico, Inter are a well oiled machine. If Aguero and Forlan don't play well I think it could get messy for them. Inter are currently 1.90 on Bet365.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August I am surprised to see over 2.5 goals in Braga at 2.30 at Bet365. When I think of this game, goals is all I imagine. Both teams to score is 1.90 there also. We have all spoken about Braga at home enough to know that they like to attack and score goals. This tie being the home leg I'd be stunned if they didn't do the same. Having said that Sevilla are a team I always think have a goal in them. They beat Barca 3-1 the other day, although they were missing some key players, and should be in high spirits. Sevilla will certainly be coming to Braga to score. Braga themselves are in the unknown somewhat but will react positively I think and go for it. On deciding between the two markets mentioned I have gone for: Over 2.5 goals - 2.30 - 4/10 - Bet365 CS 1-1 - 6.00 - 0.5/10 - Bet365. Taken this bet for some cover.
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Re: UEFA Champions League > 17th - 18th August I too think Samp are a pretty good shout tonight. With losing Oezil, Werder have lost the one player that would have really scared Samp. I can't say that I think Werder are all that much stronger as a team, though I would have liked Samp to recruit a couple by now. Not too sure how Samp will react to this match as not many of them have been on this stage before. They almost certainly need Cassano to galvanise them. Palombo is another important player tonight. He'll have the responsibility of holding the midfield together. I don't know too much about Werder but their strikers are nothing out of the ordinary. Samp were a good team last year, and I think they can spring somewhat of a surprise tonight. Samp +0.5 - 2.075 - 4/10 Bet365 GL all.
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Re: International Friendlies > 10th - 11th August
Unlucky Abacus, it could have been a very nice night for you. Look forward to seeing your thoughts on Serie A soon.13/5 Mexico win (hills) 4/6 Mexico win or draw (hills) for cover -
Re: International Friendlies > 10th - 11th August Italy vs. Ivory Coast This is certainly the most intriguing friendly of the lot this week. This game has been two years coming for most Italy fans. The Lippi reign is over and Prandelli has swept aside a lot of Lippi's players. In the spirit of revolution he has even called Amauri, though I do not agree with that at all. It is exciting to think of Balotelli and Cassano potentially linking up like Cassano once did with Totti. There is though a more realistic slant to this match tonight. There is a lot of pressure on these new players as the whole of Italy will be focussed on this friendly tonight, particularly on Cassano and Balotelli. Most of these players have never played together at all. Coupled with the fact Italy are usually underwhelming in the August friendlies, I don't really know what to expect. Deano has already pointed out the expected starting line-up. It'll be nice to see Sirigu play. Marchetti was shaky when playing in the WC so Sirigu could make himself Buffon's understudy. Chiellini will need to lead the defence as he is by far the most experienced. Motta, Bonnucii and Molinaro are all talented but obviously have never played together and don't have too much experience for Italy. All have Juventus links with Motta, Chiellini and Bonnuci expected to line-up this season. A key area to watch will be the midfield duo of De Rossi and Palomobo. They are only playing together because Pirlo is injured but I think it will be a very good partnership. In Italy's last few games De Rossi has had the task of holding the midfield by himself due to Pirlo's lack of physical presence and when he hasn't been able to do that the defence found 5 or 6 players running at them which is obviously a huge problem. Mexico particularly ran Italy ragged prior to the WC. Palomobo is a big physical guy who loves everything about being a destroyer. He has done so for Samp to great effect. He should free De Rossi up to link the midfield and attack. The area everyone will be looking at is Balotelli-Cassano-Pepe-Amauri. Cassano is potentially the no.10 Italy have been crying out for. Beside him Balotelli is a physical presence with pace, strength and great technical ability. Pepe too is a pretty standard winger so Cassano should have outlets when he finds himself on the ball. Amauri is a physically capable striker, who also has a better touch than most. He had an awful time last season but has started this pre-season well so it could be the fresh start he needs. All of these players have something to prove. Balo and Cass will have all eyes on them due to their rejection from Lippi. Amauri will have to show he was worth Prandelli calling him even though he is Brazilian and Pepe is the least stable of the four so will have to prove his worth. All in all we have a talented group of players but 100% untested. The only area I have a confident read on is the midfield. IC are a very physical side so it is key that De Rossi and Palombo are able to hold this area together. If the attackers click then Italy could be very exciting to watch but you cannot expect them to click instantly. This match is just the first in a long preparation to Euro 2012. Another thing to consider are the changes that will likely be made. I don't know just how many Prandelli will make, but being a friendly you would expect quite a lot. The rest of the squad is as follows: Mirante, Viviano (GK's), Cassani, Astori, Antonini, Luchinni (DF's), Montolivio, Marchisio, Lazzari (MF's), Quagliarella, Rossi, Borriello (FW's). The defenders are particularly weaker generally. I don't rate Antonini at all, Cassani is solid but Luchinni and Astori are very inexperienced at this level. Midfield is more familiar. Montilivo and Marchisio have never really impressed but are good players. I think Lazzari will definitely get on as he is a trequartista and that is a position Prandelli will definitely want to try out. Borriello will only come on if Amauri comes off. Quagliarella probably for Pepe and Rossi for Cass or Balotelli or Amauri. The squad players are significantly worse than the starting eleven so I would worry slightly about just how many changes are made. The Attackers are still of good ability but the defence and midfield would worry me a bit. This is the start of a long journey with a lot of excitement and expectation so it could inevitably be an anti-climax. I am happy enough to see these players selected and just watch so I am not going crazy betting on this match. I actually think there could be goals in this game for both teams. IC are far from great at defending and they could themselves hustle an untested defence, particularly in the second half if changes are made. With their quick and direct attacking they could cause problems for sure. The prices on anything to do with Italy have taken a bit of a hammering. I would warn against backing Italy outright purely because of the unknown factor. You can get some draw cover with -0.25 (1.80) but that has taken a bit of a hammering too. My overall feeling for the match is Italy early on with IC worrying later in the match. I have taken: Both teams to score - 2.00 - 4/10 - Bet365 Correct Score - 1-1 - 6.00 - 1/10 - Bet365 Best of luck, don't go too heavy on this match would be my advice as I don't know what to expect myself. EDIT - one extra bet - HT/FT (Italy/Draw) - 15.00 - 1/10 - Bet365
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Re: International Friendlies > 10th - 11th August It is plain to see that is a weak Netherlands squad. How strong is that Ukraine selection though? I recognise a few names as main players, but how strong overall is it? Fitness wont be a concern for either of the squads as both domestic leagues have started. I am very interested in backing Ukraine in this match given how weak the Dutch squad is. I am also looking at Brazil to beat USA. You know what you will get with the USA. A hard-working team with a couple of good players and the rest fairly average. The Brazil squad is a bit more of an unknown entity for me. There are plenty of top class names in there such as: Thiago Silva, Marcelo, Dani Alves, Ramires, Pato, Robinho. Most of the others are based in Brazil but carry expectation. I am wary of backing Brazil too heavily, but if you plug in the gaps around those top-class players with others like David Luiz, Hernanes, Lucas, Neymar etc. then you have a very capable team. I will avoid going deep on them as it is still a 'friendly' and all that, but can't resist them totally. Brazil win - 10/11 - 4/10 - Bet365
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Re: UEFA Europa League > 5th August
Nice first post pop. I too went for this bet. Thanks.OFK Belgrade - Galata I wouldn't say that this will be easy win for Galata,but I see value in both team to score @1.72 bet365. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > 3rd - 4th August Like many the main match I have looked at is Celtic-Braga. I think it is a little too easy to think that just because Celtic are at home and they have a big crowd that the visitors will wet themselves and lose. Braga will know what they have to do this game. If they score a goal they are virtually through. They have shown that they are pretty good going forward and comfortable on the ball. They will probably see less of it tonight but even so I expect them to be dangerous on the counter. Being 3-0 down and at home Celtic of course have to come out and go for it, they simply have no other choice. Whether they can go ahead and do what is necessary to qualify is extremely doubtful but they should be able to cause a few problems to Braga. My bet is really one I am taking due to the nature of this second leg - Celtic must attack and score, while I think Braga will aim to score one and seal the deal. Both teams to score - 1.75 - 6/10 - Bet365 I have also taken a HT/FT bet of: Celtic/Draw - 14/1 - 1/10 - Bet365 Best of luck to everyone
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Re: Midweek > Friendly Internationals > 31st May - 3rd June Line-ups are out. I think I am going to wait and watch the first ten or so minutes and maybe get on Italy.
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Re: Midweek > Friendly Internationals > 31st May - 3rd June Aguirre has just issued a release saying that he will not be risking any of his star players tonight. How far he goes with the rotation is any ones guess, but Italy can still be found at nigh on evens. It is food for thought.
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Re: Midweek > Friendly Internationals > 31st May - 3rd June I didn't see the previous Poland match but we seem to have two very conflicting opinions on it. I personally hope the former was correct as there are a few of us on Serbia tonight. Dealer dil is the poster of the other report.
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Re: Midweek > Friendly Internationals > 31st May - 3rd June Italy vs. Mexico This is a very important match for Italy tomorrow. They are one of the only sides yet to have played a WC warm up match. They have been in a training camp working alone on the sides potential tactics. Lippi has been experimenting with the 4-2-3-1 and this is what they look set to use tomorrow. "We will try the tactical line-up (4-2-3-1) that we have tested in the past few days, using a variety of players." This is good news for the squad which should be far more receptive to this formation than the previously used 4-3-3. However the positions are far from settled. There is a lot undecided about this side. Various defenders have been used and the same goes for up front. There are but a few absolutely cemented positions right now. Gigi will of course be in goal. No more need be said about that. Chiellini is missing tomorrow so the defence will probably look something like Zambrotta - Bonucci - Cannavaro - Criscito. I think that would be the better line-up but it is unsure how much Lippi trusts Criscito in a back 4. If not that then Zamby will go LB and Maggio will come in RB. I feel confident in either defence to be honest. It would be nice to watch Bonucci and Criscito as they are very promising. Absolutely no doubt Pirlo and De Rossi will be the holding midfielders. It is well known that Pirlo does need protecting in order to show his best in matches. De Rossi is an all action player who can mix it in the tackles and provide the attackers too. A perfect partnership that should flourish in this system. Up front is where things get dicey. Rather unbelievably it is rumoured that Marchisio could start as the central of 3 behind the striker. Why Lippi feels he could be better there than Cossu or Rossi I don't know - but apparently he does. I can't really see that working out too well but you never know. Marchisio does have some attacking attributes but using him as your central link between midfield and attack doesn't seem too bright to me. Pepe and Di Natale are probably going to start either side of him. I don't rate either of them at this level and we will probably be shown why pretty soon. Gila will likely start up front but is not in good form to say the least. He had a poor finish to the season. The other options are very unpredictable. There is not much to suggest that that front four can trouble any top defences. This is a team that will need to be looked at very carefully over the next two games. In truth Italy could still go into the groups 'experimenting' and come through but they need to be top to ensure the best draw. Right now I see a solid defence with two excellent midfielders shielding and creating. However up front things aren't happening for me. There is not one top player in that front four. Little outright creativity and a striker that absolutely has to be served in order to score. Mexico have played a lot of games already and will play their strongest side. I watched against England and they played well on the ball. I doubt they will receive masses of pressure on the ball until further into the Italian half. I am confident in our defence though and would be surprised to see it breached more than once - at most. I would not want to take Italy with too much confidence - although they are around evens right now. Instead I feel much better about the unders in this game. Not a great price by any means but an outcome that is very feasible. 0-0 or 1-0 either way would be smart bets I think. Under 2.5 goals - 1.74 - Betfair - Low/medium stakes.
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Re: Midweek > Friendly Internationals > 31st May - 3rd June I am going to sit this Holland match out. It will be interesting to see how they combat a very physical side like Ghana. I'd still get on Holland if the odds were a bit better. I'll be watching intently.
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Re: Midweek > Friendly Internationals > 31st May - 3rd June Portugal vs. Cameroon I am not sure if this has been mentioned already but I like the unders in this match. Portugal at the very least have shown that they are good at the back keeping clean sheets in their last 6 matches. They have clearly got some problems of their own to iron out after their 0-0 against Cape Verdes but they don't seem to be defensive issues. Pretty much a fulls strength line-up for them. Pepe not back yet but other than that it seems full strength. I haven't actually watched much of Cameroon at all in recent memory. Not a huge fan of African football to say the least and I'll be careful to avoid too much stereotyping. They are a physical side if nothing else with pace and power throughout - as most African sides do. One of the better sides on the ball but still nothing special. They have their main player Etoo playing although he will undoubtedly be as miserable as ever. They'll be strong and pose enough threat to keep Portugal ont heir toes but they are nothing special. All-in-all I expect a pretty tight game between two sides with a little to work out prior to the WC starting. Portugal may come out and go crazy after their last result but I'll take that chance. Under 2.5 goals - 1.76 - Betfair
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Re: Midweek > Friendly Internationals > 31st May - 3rd June Does anyone know the prospective strength of SA tonight? I can't find any sort of team news really. Pienaar and McCarthy were on the bench against Columbia with the latter coming on at some point. It is their penultimate friendly so I would expect them both to start as the WC nears. Doesn't matter anyway I just saw the price of 2/7 on B365. I can't go near that really.
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Re: World Cup Fantasy Football Yeah I would have preferred the players to be valued though. That always makes it a bit more fun. Still, once a few more join we'll be laughing. You fancy a bit of Gila this WC dont you Jase.
UEFA Europa League > Thursday 21st October
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 21st October Napoli are taking this match relatively seriously - far more so than Liverpool right now. However Mazzari has said that the league remains their primary objective. Johnson, Agger,Kuyt, Gerrard, Torres are almost certain to all miss out. Further rumours say that Meireles could as well. A Lucas/Poulson midfield isn't pretty in any one's books. Napoli have another very big match on Monday where they host Milan. Of the two I think that is probably considered slightly more important - though it is a few days away. I can't find any solid news on potential Napoli team news and it is a little hard to speculate. Right now they have momentum and will want to keep it so I think they will probably name a strong 11 with 1 or 2 changes. Lack of foresight will probably cost me in this match as at anything near 2.2 Napoli would have been well worth taking. Not sure I can risk taking them at 1.85-ish (Bet365) when a draw would be happily taken.