Kithanga
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Posts posted by Kithanga
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Re: Bookmakers limits - an idea and your thoughts
Not quite. Just a 'minimum' amount they will lay 'any' horse in the race to lose. It wouldn't need to alter between races but could if they wished. So, for example a bookie could have it displayed on the odds comparison site (just like BOG) that they'd lay any horse to lose a minimum of £100. We'd all know where we stand then wouldn't we and it'd stop time wasters.If I understand you right, you kind of want a Betfair type scenario, where they will list the total amount available at each price, alongside the price? I think it is a great idea and would make things more transparent, but I'd be surprised if the bookies went for it. It would expose many for what they are, illiusionists. -
Re: Your biggest betting disaster/**** up!? 2010 5th May to 12th June 53 Bets, 2 Winners at 5-1 and 5-2 and 9 seconds Thousands lost & confidence shattered
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Racecourse bookies display how much (as a minimum) they are willing to lay any horse to lose to any punter. From experience it tends to be £500 or £1,000. Well, I'm wondering if we could start up a 'Punters Lounge' campaign to get the on-line bookies to adopt the same commitment. The most frustrating aspect of betting these days is not the fact that your bet may get 'knocked back' to pennies but that the price is often retained for hours afterwards. In times gone past I'd get knocked back plenty of times and quite often took the rest of the bet at a lower price that I still considered value. The main difference is that the price would be shortened meaning it wasn't just a direct reluctance to take my bet, but a reluctance to take on more liability at the advertised price. Fair enough. I think they should state for each race the minimum they are willing to lay any horse to lose and update this amount as the market develops. That way they can start low to begin with and get braver as the market settles and their liabilities are better known. It doesn't stop them taking a bigger bet but it does stop them wasting customers time trying to get a bet on when they are only interested in laying a bet to lose £10 to anyone who has a slight chance of winning some money over the long term. The reason I'm suggesting this is that I recently tried to get a tenner on my account for a mate who hasn't got an account (we were miles from a bookies) and the first bookie I chose limited his bet on this animal to win less than £20. Not only pathetic but what image did this give to a potential new customer of theirs! Thoughts?
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Re: Racing Post I have the basic package which is good value for money if you consider the amount of information you get. If you'd have told me ten years ago I could get all that info at such speed for such a small amount I'd have taken your arm off, as would my wife as she was fed up of piles of Racing Post and ring binders around the house! I also have Raceform Interactive and for me it's top drawer. I ditched it and went RP only in 2010 to save money and had a nightmare year. I got it back again in November last year as so far so good. It aint cheap but it's certainly paid for itself
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Re: How do you guys study form??
Just avoid the mistake of thinking you're wrong because it lost and right because it won. That'll make the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Look at the race afterwards and try to understand why it might have worked out the way it did for all the runners. Have a read of the quotes from connections and jockeys too as there's sometimes things in there that you couldn't possibly have known beforehand. Have a look back at Spotlight or Sporting Life to see if they got it any better than you did and why. Was the going different (based on times) than what was forecast, was there a pace bias, etc. Then you can assess whether you missed a key fact or took the wrong things into account. I'd be more worried if, for example, I'd backed a winner that was winning for the first time going left handed, when it is 0 from 15 going that way round and normally hangs right. If it hangs to the rail and still wins because maybe the other market leaders had a problem, I'd think I just got lucky but assessed the race wrongly. When studying the form by all means read some books, particularly stuff on pace and speed figures as they have useful insights. However you'll only gain by hard experience. Set up a betting bank that's an uncomfortable (but not ruinous) amount to lose and start betting real cash and you'll learn quickly. Expect to lose the first bank (and maybe the second) and have to save / rebuild. On form study it's the obvious of does it act on the track, going, under the weight, small / big field, after a short / long break from the track, etc and then straight comparison with the others taking account of any likely improvement to find the most likely winners. They'll usually be at the head of the market as that's just how things work out. Then you are looking for things that others may not have spotted like a pace bias, or the favourite being the type that doesn't like to be in front, etc. Hope that helpsCheers guys for the comments!!I'll get that book then and have a good read at that, looks the type of book I need to get started, thanks santos and russ p! Blazing bailey,, exactly what I'm going through, reading some things and I'm like ' what does that mean' lol actually annoys me!! Done some paper test betting 2day and took 3 bets 2day, took,, Zomerlust to win at Redcar 3.00, it won My Viking bay to win Towcaster 6.00, it won Northern territory to win Windsor 6.40, came last lol So where did I go wrong with the Windsor bet? and where did go right with the first two bets?? Was a 9/4 shot when I took zomerlust so not bad odds!! -
Re: BBOTD Sunday 13th of May Leopardstown 3.15 Yellow Rosebud 5-1 (bog) Bet365 I'm confident of success today with Dermot Weld's classy filly who posted decent performances last season. A good win over this course on her debut was followed by an excellent performance to run Maybe to 2 1/2 lengths on her second outing in a Group 2 over 7f at Curragh. That was a very good effort as she was the only one to make any significant impression from the rear and finished well to grab second close home. Both the winner and 3rd have gone on to be very decent fillies since and two of todays rivals (Rubina and Remember Alexander) were well beaten in 4th and 5th despite being better positioned throughout the race. Although she didn't quite run up to that on her final start in a Group 1 race in France it was slowly run and maybe the travelling played a part. The softer ground is an unknown but her half brother (My Kingdom) and half sister (Seeharn) both handle softer conditions, as do many of the sires progeny, so it's worth taking the risk at the price.
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Re: BBOTD 12th May Lingfield 3.10 Cavaleiro 22-1 Stan James I'm going to take a chance on this battling type improving over todays half mile longer trip in a race that often springs a surprise. The favourite looks to have bags of potential but I wasn't impressed with his finishing on either of his two starts and he may not relish a battle. Rougemount has hard two hard races already, the latest in desparate ground and that may have taken its toll. Main Sequence looks good but is only rated 8lb superior to the selection on official ratings and may not benefit as much from the step up in trip. But he does look a danger.
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Re: BBOTD Monday 7th of May Curragh 3.20 Bulbul 15-8 Coral Showed promise over todays trip on her debut at Leopardstown finishing close up to some useful types under hands and heels. Followed this up with a taking display over 1f shorter at Naas pulling nearly 5l clear of modest opposition. Looked to need her seasonal reappearance, has plenty of size and scope and should have too much pace for Ishvana. The stable form of An Ghalanta puts me right off that one but it'll be interesting to see how well she copes going up in trip.
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 5th of May Goodwood 4.05 Raasekha 9-1 Hills (bog) Plenty of decent betting opportunities today with some high class racing across the country. I'm going for one of my longer priced selections for my BBOTD today in an attempt to climb the table. The favourite, Barefoot Lady, is a class act and sets the standard. However, I'm sure she won't be 100% wound up here given some of the opportunities she has in much higher class later in the season. That, and the soft ground, leads me to believe she can be given a race today by Charles Hills 4yo filly. With only three runs under her belt she clearly has scope to improve. She needs to as well as her maiden win as a 3yo was in a weak contest run in a poor time. However she was much better on her first start this season when running a 2l 4th behind a race fit Sooraah despite not having the run of the race. A line through that one gives her a decent chance of beating Winter's Night (seasonal debut and a much shorter price) who finished a hd and 3/4 behind the same rival on her final start at Ascot. Added to that, todays softer conditions should very much suit the selection (being by Pivotal) and her entries in two Group 2 races in the coming weeks suggest that she's held in fair regard by this powerful and in form yard. Esentepe was clearly readied to win her latest start at Newmarket, making the most of her race fitness and stamina to hold off the challenge of two outsiders in a blanket finish. She had everything right for her that day and posted her best rating but I can't believe she'll improve markedly after 11 races and may even have been flattered. Neutrafa won impressively from modest opposition last time and could be anything but isn't entered in any of the top races and only beat a 79 rated rival last time so should be up against it in this company.
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 28th of April Sandown 2.35 Somersby 100-30 Hills (bog) A very tricky days racing today with bad ground across all the flat tracks. For that reason I'll stick to the jumpers but I'm hopeful rather than confident of keeping my 100% record for the month. At this time of year I'd normally look for something that has missed the big festivals and been aimed specifically for races at this time of year (for the drying spring ground) but those targeted for the big races will not have been expecting soft ground and I'm therefore going to side with one who's had a longer season. To me this race revolves around whether Somersby has got over the reported muscle problems he suffered during his latest outing at Cheltenham as he's the class animal in the field. 12 win or placed efforts from 15 starts, many in top class races, is something today's opponents can't match. Add to that the fact that he's better still going right handed and is proven at the course and his case gets stronger. The yard are without a winner since January but do have an in & out record most seasons anyway so that doesn't bother me too much. So, if he's over his problems I'd expect him to take this and represents a fair bet at the price.
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Re: BBOTD Wednesday 25th Punchestown 5.30 Rubi Light 7-2 Hills (bog) Hopefully I can make it 4 from 4 in a month interrupted by holidays if this classy gelding relishes this step up in trip as much as I think he will. He's at his best in testing conditions, jumps well and relishes a battle which are attributes that very much match what will be needed today. Additionally, the yard are going well and he has good course form and times. I don't like the favourite at all as his grade 1 win was achieved in a fairly moderate time and he's looked as though he's tired towards the end of his races on occasions. Add the poor form of the stable and he's worth taking on. Captain Chris is interesting and it wouldn't be a total surprise if he wins this if he takes to this much softer ground than he's previously encountered. A longer priced on that could sneak into the frame each way would be Boston's Angel who's overpriced on last seasons form.
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 21st Ayr 2.15 Pacha Du Polder 11-4 Betvictor (bog) Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race and this 5yo looks to have more potential than his challengers. The ex flat Lancetto looks as though he lacks scope but is very consistent. Lidar's victory last time was achieved from moderate opposition and he had an easy time up front. He won't get that this time with a couple of others who like to be ridden up there and the extra distance doesn't look to be in his favour. Chase debutant Rival D'Estruval looks a chaser but will need to be very classy to win this first time off a likely good pace at a trip that may be short of his best.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ April 2012 8 winners BH - mine popped in at Thurles after your post (in the 5.45)
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 3rd of April Thurles 5.45 Berties Dream 6-4 Paddy Power (bog) A classy front running stayer who's struggled a bit over fences this season. He brings a significant form and class advantage into this race and should also have the benefit of a fairly easy time up front. Although he may get a little outpaced coming out of the back straight I'd expect him to outstay these rivals on the uphill run to the finish.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Cup Final ~ Deadline 2pm Thanks for running again BH. Three from four was the best I've been all month and hopefully that's a nice turnaround in form for me
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Re: BBotD April 1st Limerick 4.50 Frisco Depot 2-1 Bet365 Lightly raced compared to the others in this field and looks as though the better ground should suit. Should have too much pace for Crash and too much class and potential for Your Busy
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Re: BBOTD - Sat 31st March Doncaster 2.40 High Standing 22-1 (bog) Bet365 Has a decent record over 6f in Good ground (112) and may well be freshened up for a change of yard. Very much better than his current odds as he never really had his conditions last season. The favourite looks strong but may not get a strong enough pace to chase here as there's only he 3yo Bannock (who should be there abouts), Googlette and possibly The Cheka to set the pace. Ian Mongan takes the ride and he's 2 from 4 for this shrewd yard.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Cup Final ~ Deadline 2pm Good luck Verisimilitude Doncaster 2.40 High Standing each way 22-1 Bet365 (bog) Kempton 4.05 Primaeval 11-10 Bet365 (bog) Uttoxeter 4.10 Godsmejudge 7-2 Boylesports (bog) Reserve Navan 5.20 Tranquil Sea each way 6-1 Bet365 (bog)
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I thought that maybe a thread where we can tell the truth about our dealings (both good and bad) with the bookies would be useful. That way existing and newer punters alike can judge for themselves what the service we get is really like and how it differs from the adverts and stories of big bets laid. I'm assuming that as long as we keep it factual there'll be no problem from the mods (or the bookies themselves). I'll start us off with one of each. William Hill : A big pat on the back and well done for standing their prices to decent amounts at Cheltenham on the morning of the races, many of which had shortened the night before. Betfred : Tried to back my BBOTD with them last Saturday but was limited to £2.50 win which I obviously declined. We're talking a major race on the busiest day of the week & hours after the market had opened here guys and you can't stand a bet of more than £2.50. That's poor. K
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 24th of March Lingfield 2.55 Blue Jack 20-1 bet365 (bog) Tom Dascombe's yard are in great form and this gelding had no luck at all last season when not showing his best form. Worth a chance at a big price to bounce back
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Re: BBOTD Knockout Competition ~ Semi Finals ~ Deadline 2pm Sat. Lingfield 2.25 Gusto 3-1 bet365 Lingfield 2.55 Blue Jack each way 20-1 bet365 Lingfield 3.25 Riggins each way 25-1 bet365
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Re: A Question & Idea I think it's a great forum and has just the right balance between those wanting to learn and those who have knowledge to impart. Sometimes you just have to accept that people have lives outside of the PL and horse racing and on occasions they'll drop out for some time for personal reasons be that work, family or others.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Competition ~ 2nd Round Sat 2pm Deadline
Cross of honour' date=' posh bird at uttoxeter each way at sp and arctic court each way at Newcastle sp[/quote'] Sorry for the lack of detail BH but was on mobile and struggling for signal. The times of the races were Utt 2.45 & 3.20 and Newc 2.35 -
Re: Best Bet Of The Day Knockout Competition ~ 2nd Round Sat 2pm Deadline Cross of honour, posh bird at uttoxeter each way at sp and arctic court each way at Newcastle sp
Bookmakers limits - an idea and your thoughts
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Bookmakers limits - an idea and your thoughts
I'm not really proposing this for me as I bet in hundreds and therefore would be above the maximums anyway. I just think for your average punter wanting £5, £10 or £20 or a fancy it looks bad at the moment. My mate asked me to put £10 a 9-2 chance and the bookie offered £4 and a few pennies at the price and then kept it for hours afterwards. He's new to racing and commented 'what's the point of betting on horses if you can't win anything'. Therefore they are putting off new customers = lowering turnover = lower levy = deteriorating sport. From a business perspective it just seems madness all round