Kithanga
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Posts posted by Kithanga
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Re: BBOTD Monday June 25th Thirsk 7.50 George Benjamin 10-1 (bog) Bet Victor Purely a price based selection this ones been on the drift all day but has a good level of ability in these softish conditions. Being a prominent runner won't harm either and he may be able to give the favourite a race
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Re: Flat season - Too difficult to profit?
I think it is' date=' I know there are people out there who do but there is just so much you have to take into consideration when you analyse the races. Ground, distance, draw and the race pace are just the few essential things you have to look at, with the jumps it is so much easier to analyse the form as there isn't really much to analyse, just distance and maybe jumping abilities, ground doesn't play as big part as in the flat imo. It could just be this season, it hasn't helped with the rain I suppose, look at Homecoming Queen, bolts up in the 1000 Guineas then look at her two previous runs, just can't explain it really.[/quote'] Maybe you're taking too much into consideration. Try deciding what your main factors are and then use the remainder to influence the level of confidence for finalising either the selection or the stake. For example, you may consider last time out rating (current form) and suitability of the track, ground and distance to be key. Use these to filter the runners to a smaller sample, maybe even one selection. Then look at the likely pace, draw and other factors like trainer form and jockey to narrow down to a selection or to give extra confidence or otherwise. -
Re: Dave Nevison - disillusioned value punter? This is all races, flat and jumps, turf and all weather in the UK & Ireland. Winner strike rate and £1 P&L percentages 2012 34.9% -4.9% 2011 34.4% -6.4% 2010 33.8% -7.4% 2009 34.0% -6.4% 2008 33.4% -7.9% 2007 33.7% -6.2%
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Re: BBOTD - Sunday 24th June Pontefract 3.10 Edmaaj 3-1 Stan James Thankfully Ascot is over for another year as that's not a meeting I ever seem to do well at. Back at Pontefract this 4yo gelding looks on the upgrade having taken a decent York handicap on his latest start forging clear in similar testing conditions.
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Re: bbotd sat 23 june Ascot 5.35 Zuider Zee 5-1 (bog) Bet Victor From a bang in form yard this gelding has always shaped as though a really stiff test will suit and today's 2 mile 5 furlong contest in testing ground should be ideal. There's very little else in the race the way the weights are allocated so with Overturn unsure to be suited by a real slog on an uphill track and Simenon trying to win on the back of a hard race 4 days ago the selection has quite an advantage
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Re: BBOTD Friday 22nd of June Ascot 3.45 Samitar 9-2 (bog) Ladbrokes Returned to her best in Ireland last time comfortably accounting for todays favourite Homecoming Queen who will be suited by a return to softer ground but may have been flattered by her guineas romp. The selection is a previous course winner, handles cut and seems in peak condition. There's a chance her stable companion will take on the favourite for the lead too, setting the race up for this one.
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Re: bbotd wednesday Ascot 5.35 Ladys First 7-1 Bet Victor (bog) Gradually progressive in her first season, Richard Fahey's filly ran a decent first race of the season 4 weeks ago when battling on well for 2nd and I expect her to improve on that run tomorrow. Electrelane ran well to win a soft ground event two weeks ago but that battle may have left its mark and top weight of 9-7 on this faster surface may just find her out.
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 19th of June Ascot 3.05 Wizz Kid 5-1 Ladbrokes (bog) A progressive sprinter whose in form and has conditions to suit, he should go well here on the back of his win at Chantilly. That's a similar track with an uphill finish and he's run well at this venue before. I've also had a saver on Stepper Point who looked a promising 3yo when finishing second to the selection last time out and will race on the other side of the track today. At 50-1 he much too big a price
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Re: BBOTD Monday 18th June Carlisle 4.45 Thackeray 6-1 Bet365 (bog) I want to be against the favourite Osgood here as he had a hard race when narrowly winning last time out and his record when racing quickly after a battle is poor. So, with only 10 days rest I have to take him on. The one I've gone with may not have been suited by the very firm ground at Haydock last time and will hopefully regain his progressive form that saw him take two handicaps earlier this year, once in todays soft ground and once on an uphill track (Pontefract) like today. That makes him reasonably proven in the conditions with the only doubt being the trip, although if anything given the way he finsihes his races I'd expect him to benefit
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Re: sunday bbotd Cork 3.15 Mirza 3-1 (bog) Bet Victor Well suited by softish ground and 2 from 2 at five furlongs, this 5yo gelding is expected to progress again here against some rivals who are a little past their best, unsuited by the trip, inconsistent or just out of form. The yard is going well too and that adds extra confidence
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 16th June York 4.15 Carragold 8-1 Boylesports (bog) In form and suited by the ground, which is likely to be very testing, this progressive 6yo gelding should go close in what is a very competitive handicap. He's fairly priced though this morning and I can see him going off much shorter which his prominent racing style also very well suited to the conditions today
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Haydock 8.20 Trail Blaze 9-2 Bet365 (bog) This colt has done nothing but improve with every start and battled on well to win his latest contest over the course and distance from another of tomorrows rivals. He's been given plenty of time to get over that and should go well again for his in form yard.
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Re: bbotd monday Pontefract 7.20 May Contain Nuts 14-1 Bet365 (bog) Already a course and distance winner off this mark as a 3yo, Brendan Powell's gelding can run the more fancied runners close tomorrow night. He had a hard race when winning that event and that showed when he finished tailed off on his next start at York. Another poor run followed on the all weather at Kempton and he was put away for the winter. His return to action at Goodwood was a fair effort and only a few lbs behind his best despite the lack of a recent run telling from over 1f out. That considerate introduction should have put him spot on for this contest and he rates a decent bet at the price.
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Re: bbotd sunday Worcester 2.30 Wait No More 2-1 Bet Victor (bog) Ran well from the front last time to post an improved effort and very much the one to beat in this as most of the rivals are out of form or returning from breaks
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 9th Chester 2.00 Reyamour 11-2 Bet365 (bog) Has plenty of soft ground form in France earlier in her career and posted a decent effort when picking up a Salisbury maiden on her latest start. The favourite looks to be in good form but has too many second places for my liking and may not have the progression needed to take this
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Re: BBOTD Monday 4th Naas 4.45 True Verdict 9-2 Stan James Was given a considerate introduction over course & distance nearly three weeks ago and is well entered up. Should appreciate the ground and likely test of stamina at the trip for a yard with a good strike rate in high class 2yo races.
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 27th Curragh 2.05 Cleofila 14-1 B365 (bog) Jim Bolger's filly is a confident selection despite the big price as she beat the useful Coral Wave over this course when last encountering faster ground. Still entered in two Group 1's she's clearly well thought of and both subsequent runs can be discounted on account of the softer ground conditions, something she's not bred to prefer. In a weak race for the grade she worth a solid punt to regain winning ways and cause an upset.
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 26th Haydock 3.00 Monsieur Joe 16-1 Stan James A bang in form sprinter who's very capable of clocking a decent time on fast ground and finished a couple of necks behind the 4-1 second favourite two starts ago. He's gone on to run a good 2nd in a Group 3 since. Needs everything to fall right to win but is very much over priced.
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Re: bbotd friday G'wood 4.20 Ahtoug (7-2) Hills (bog) Classy 2yo who had a short 3yo campaign. Returned to near best when 2nd at Meydan in March. If he handles the track he'll give the fav something to think about in a weak race for the grade
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Re: I found this, care to elaborate? Two pieces of seemingly opposing advice regarding the list. Firstly, ignore it. Secondly, build your own and stick with it. Why ignore it? Because as you can see from the replies, there is no list of rules that suits everyone. I rarely disagree with Fintron for example but strongly disagree with his view of field size (10 runners or less) being hard to make a margin. I'm at my best in those races, he's clearly not. Hence the second piece of advice, bet in as many races as you like and record the results over a long period with plenty of supporting information (runners, race type, age, time of year, track, etc). Over time you'll not only start to see a trend in your results that identifies which races you do best in. For me it didn't come as a surprise either as they tended to be the ones I most looked forward to studying when opening up the paper.
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Re: Bookmakers limits - an idea and your thoughts No Jay, he doesn't normally bet so doesn't have accounts. We were out for a pint and just chatting about racing and how to make a few quid. I mentioned I had one I was confident about and so he asked me to stick a tenner on for him. The struggle to get on was probably enough to put him off ever getting into racing.
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Re: Advice required please All the books by Nick Mordin plus the American ones he recommends regarding pace and speed figures
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Re: BBOTD Sunday 20th May Limerick 4.25 Benefit Of Porter 7-1 (bog) Betfred Having been laid down with a heavy cold and only just dragged myself out of bed to look at the runners I can't be fully confident today. However, Patrick Sinnott's mare looks to have her conditions here on only her 2nd chase start. The jolly, Shop DJ, is clearly capable of taking this if on top of her game but her hold up style won't be suited to this track and she's has a long hard season so has to be opposed at the odds. Our Victoria is held by the selection on her victory at Listowel and Royal Choice is held through a line with Our Victoria. Of the obvious dangers, that leaves Definite Class who registered her best effort when easily taking a chase at Kilbeggan last time out. A strict reading of that form would make her the selection as she clocked by far the fastest time of the day. However, there are doubts as the short priced fav under performed in a weak race leaving 16-1 and 14-1 shots to chase her home. At around the 3-1 mark she's plenty short enough. The selection is consistent, loves this fast ground and has the services of Barry Geraghty (1 win, 1 second for the yard) and likes to race near the front. That gives her a good chance on only her second outing over fences
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 19th Newmarket 3.20 Van Ellis 7-1 Bet365 (bog) Trappy stuff and mainly large fields today tempers confidence but Mark Johnsons colt looks worth a bet at the odds available in this Listed event. There's not much between Balty Boys, Saigon and Silverheels on last seasons form so it's difficult to split them and they all look fairly exposed as just below pattern class. Therefore I'll go for one of the other less exposed types. I can't work Aljamaaheer out as he's entered in the Derby (12f) and the July Cup (6f). That gives the impression that he's speedy but can also stay futher. His debut win was impressive and his last run can be discounted on account of the ground and the way he travelled (pulled hard). I expect him to run much better today and he should be able to master The Nile who posted an impressive 11l win at Lingfieldon his seasonal debut. That was a weak race though and winning a class 1 event after a class 6 win isn't a regular ocurance meaing he's short enough in the betting for me. The only other unexposed one is the selection and although I wouldn't be surpised to see Roger Varians colt win this, I expect better from Mark Johnsons runner. A decent effort on softish ground at Newmarket in April preceeded a talented showing on the all weather at Dundalk where he clocked a decent time when running away with his maiden. The field were well strung out that day and I wondered whether he was sent over to Ireland due to the ground conditions in the UK at the time. If he truely needs a better surface then his iniitial outing can be rated higher on account of the ground. Therefore, this faster ground may well bring about more improvement assuming Joe Fanning doesn't use him up to early from the front
BBOTD - Tues 26th June 2012
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: BBOTD - Tues 26th June 2012 Newbury 9.05 Whitecrest 3-1 (bog) Bet Victor This filly has been in good form on both her latest two outings looking a bit unlucky on each occasion. Hopefully she's still in form and could hacve the edge in a close handicap