Kithanga
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Posts posted by Kithanga
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Re: Barney Curley..... Can't really blame Barney, he's doing it all within the rules and the prize money is so poor at class 6 level I think many of them are at it given the way they are ridden p.s. loved the rant Walker - top drawer to see Big Mac grovelling
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Re: BBOTD Tuesday 10th January Cracking day for the thread. Winners all over the place and on what looked a tricky day too!
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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread
Nice one. Looks like you're on a roll now!3.55 Southwell - 2pts win Podgies Boy @ 7/1 (Hills) Richard Fahey's yard are going well and this horse is well handicapped having completed a hat-trick off a mark of 74 in December 2010. He runs off 73 today with 5lbs taken off by Shane B Kelly - an able claimer - and I think he should go well eased in grade. He ran respectably on his return from a long break at Lingfield in November off 77 and remained on that mark when again running okay over a mile at Southwell. That was a better race than this though, I think, and he's been eased in the weights since. Again was pitched into tricky company at Lingfield last time despite running off 75 with 7lbs taken off by Laura Barry. This was a good 0-85 affair won by the bang in form Lockantanks and my selection faded to be beaten just over 3l. This is a 0-75 contest and I think the 7f at Southwell will really suit. The horse clearly still has ability and dropped in the handicap again with Kelly's claim will see this one go well I feel. -
Re: Which Courses/ Big Races do you excel in, and which do you not? I've reluctantly had to accept that I do best in group, graded, listed and conditions races for much the same reasons as mowgli77 states above. I think the form holds up much better. I've also traditionally been mainly a flat punter and only dabbled occasionally on the jumps. I did badly in all races on the flat though in 2010 and missed the majority of the flat turf season in 2011. I started up again towards the end of October and was therefore restricted to handicaps on the all weather. Just four wins from 40 bets finally persuaded me that they just aren't for me. Despite many being seriously shortened in the betting, they just weren't even close most of the time and I came to the conclusion that I may just be jumping on the one or two obvious lines of form as everyone else and may actually just be on poor value horses that just got even poorer value. That conclusion was reached after including both 2010 and 2009 results in handicaps so not a short term run of results. Looking even further back I can see that I was just about holding my own at the good prices (slight loss) but was well down at SP. I just have to conclude that they aren't for me. I'm very low on confidence now and even though I've committed to concentrate on my preferred races I think I need a good year to get me back on track. Including the classier jumps races is a first for me this year so it'll be interested to see how those go in addition to the flat races. As I stated in a similar earlier thread my main challenge for 2012 is sticking to my guns, avoiding the handicaps and hopefully punting my way through any bad patches to still be in the game on the 31st December. If I can keep going and keep to the approach I've decided on without getting down hearted and quiting any profit will be a bonus. You never know, I may even start looking forward to 2013 then! P.S. Oh and to answer the other question Epsom, Goodwood and Newmarket are real money spinners for me, with Ascot a regular graveyard.
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Re: BBOTD - Sunday 8th January Naas 1.40 Monksland 6/1 bog at Boylesports & Hills The favourite Dedigout looks to hold good claims but at around Evs I think he's priced about right. I'm not saying he won't win but when this future chasing type stayed on well to beat Mart Lane at Navan last time but it wasn't plain sailing. He didn't pull that far clear of the first six who finished in a bit of a heap. The second was kept wide throughout and clearly hated the ground whilst the third has since won over 3m. That indicates to me that his win may have been over rated. And, when you consider Monksland completed in a faster time on the same track earlier in the day over a shorter trip and finished much stronger I think he's worth a chance to upset this favourite. I accept that it's his first time against older horses and that the trip is an unknown but I think too much is being made of his supposed dislike of this ground. Sure, he'll be even better on faster going but he had no problems coping with similar conditions when he won last time out. Hopefully he can get me my first winner
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Re: BBOTD Saturday 7th January Sandown 13.00 The Strawberry One 4-1 Hills & P.Power Being zero from two I'm tempted to go for one of the shorter ones tomorrow but I think this mare has been overlooked and should be 2nd fav. I think this lies between the selection and Kaffie who has won as she pleased in two modest novices so far. The yard are seemingly out of form with no winners for several months but they don't run that many and don't usually start to bang in the winners until around late December. She's the best horse in the race and showed clear signs of returning to her best last time out over a trip that was possibly a little far. Back at her optimum trip and on a course that should suit I'll take a chance.
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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread
I hope you don't mind me commenting, I'm just trying to help as I really feel for you mate but would agree with Lars that you seem 'off your game'. I don't doubt that you're trying to bet normally but it looks like your judgement is way off. Have a look at my thread from 2010 and you'll see I went through a similar bad run and public humiliation. Every other thread seemed to win, every horse I almost backed won and all the ones I backed lost many with the most awful bad luck in running and hammered in the betting. After years of winning I never, ever expected to lose and certainly not as badly as I did. I was annoyed with the game and blaming bad luck, bad rides, etc and wasn't approaching the form with an open mind. It was only after taking a break and looking back at my bets that I saw that a lot of the 'bad luck' could have been forseen. I was just not seeing it or blocking it out. Your last sentence suggests you should take a break. Why not spend a couple of weeks critically looking at your selections with an open mind to see if you can spot anything.1 good day, 20 bad. No good for confidence. Flat: Total bets: 285 Won : 35 Placed (winning horses excluded): 72 Total staked: 817pts Total returned: 762pts Total P/L: -55pts Jumps: Total bets: 89 Won: 13 Placed: 18 Total Staked: 280pts Total Returned: 257pts Total P/L: -23pts Not going to get anywhere unless the 3, 4 and 5pt bets win. They never do. They're what get you the big wins and if you can't land them, it's an impossible task. Need to look at Wolverhampton but it's hardly making my mouth water. -
Re: BBOTD - Wed 4th Jan, 2012
On first look Laura Pike gave him an absolutely shocking ride' date=' should have won.[/quote'] Not the best I agree although he isn't the easiest of rides -
Re: BBOTD - Wed 4th Jan, 2012 Great picking guys, don't get them at that price every week.
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Re: BBOTD - Wed 4th Jan, 2012 Kempton 5.30 Hazzard County 14-1 bog @ Hills The Rectifier steps back 1f in trip and has not raced for 112 days. Given that there are several other front runners in opposition he's unlikely to get his own way up front even if he's able to show enough speed to get there initially. Of the other more prominent runners Clockmaker appeals as a likely winner but is much too short at 7-2 in this competitive event. Therefore I'll side with David Simcock's gelding. He's best when able to come off a strong pace, has posted the best speed figures in the field and has and comes from an in form yard.
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Does anyone know where I can get details of upcoming races (next 1-3 months) showing race distance, class and other conditions? Basically, what the trainer might use to plan his horses campaigns.
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Re: What is your best piece of advice for profitable punting in 2012? Focus and consistency From my experience of the last couple of years it would be to identify your strengths (Fintron covers that) and then focus on those races. There's so much racing and opportunities that I think focus is essential. Without it I find that I waste to much time trying to find the best race to bet in and can't see the wood for the trees. I'd also say that consistant staking is essential. For the first time this year I've also got my equivilant of Fintron's little piece of paper. A worksheet on my results spreadsheet that outlines my approach and staking. My one objective is to stick to those and let the results and variance play out over the year. Easier said than done I know. K
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Re: BBOTD - Jan 1st 2012 Think I'll join in the fun this year if that's ok. Cheltenham 1.05 Solix 5/1 generally with BOG firms I want to take on the favourite here as although he is clearly well thought of and has tons of ability this race will test him to the full over the slightly shorter trip. I expect Champion Court (who jumps well) to take them along at a fair clip here as he stays 3m well on this course. He may even hold on if outjumping the main three but he seems to lack a finishing kick. Of the main two rivals Solix has the most room for improvement as he just jumped ok round here last time, although getting better as the race progressed and I just don't like Invictus at the price given the one he beat last time made several jumping errors. He could be flattered.
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Re: Grands Crus in the Feltham Interesting points and I agree that he could have been idling and may have finished better if Scu had waited on him. He's a class horse and one I'm looking forward to seeing again.
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Just watched a re-run of Saturdays race and noticed that he seemed to do them for pace down the back but didn't stay on as strongly as seemed likely. To me he didn't look to have a lot left at the finish and it got me wondering whether a fast run 3m 2f in the Gold Cup may be a step too far at this stage in his career.
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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day It's a fascinating race. Long Run deserves to be fav but I am concerned about his jumping as he hit three at Haydock and usually has at least on bad blunder. Last year in this race was a rare clear round for him when it was Kauto who made the mistake 2 out. At 11-8 there's no margin in the price for me so with the dead 8 runners and most bookies going 1/4 the odds I'm going to chance Captain Chris each way at 7-1.
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Re: 2011 review 2011 has been a year of getting back into racing for me. After a disastrous 2010 in which I tried to expand the number of bets I have focussed on things outside racing during the majority of 2011. Like all true fans of the game it’s never possible to stay away for too long though and I picked up again in October with a view to tackling the all weather. I haven’t approached it with much confidence though and the results have not been great, particularly with my Achilles heel the handicappers. In fact, I’ve spent most of the time trying out all sorts of different approaches and done some further reviews of results. That’s shown the same old story for me of small negative losses on handicap races and big positive returns in non handicaps over many years and thousands of bets. It’s really hard to admit it but I think handicap races just aren’t for me and I’ll just have to accept that and leave them alone.
So for 2012 I’m going to give jumps and flat a go, but in non handicap races only. My goals are simple, stick to consistent staking, stick to the non handicaps and finally to stick at it. I’ll be beginning the year on an all time low confidence wise and on a bank that’s sitting at about half of its December 2009 value.
A bit like Barney on the darts when he changed his throw and darts and lost confidence I feel I’ve done the same over the last couple of years. In the search of further improvement I turned a good successful approach into a bad downward spiral. Such has been the turmoil and loss of confidence from the last few years that if I’m still betting this time next year on the same stakes with the same approach and winning even a small amount I’ll be very happy. K -
Re: Flat Racing Saturday 3rd 21.20 Wolverhampton I'll side with the top weight Rock Anthem E/W 14-1 generally in this with a good draw in box 1. He was off for nearly two years with an injury but was showing signs of a return to form on the turf two starts ago. He never figured when 3-1 2nd fav in a competitive 0-75 back on Poly on his latest start but he's been dropped a few more pounds for that and competes in a 0-60 here. Andrea Atzeni's only ride of the night, he looks worth a chance to confirm earlier promise in this much weaker company.
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Re: Tissue Practice Guys, Fascinating thread as I've done my own prices for a long time and it does work. However, here's something worth thinking about. By all means review your prices, but do this before the event by comparing against others. Don't look back at them after the result as you are all doing. The result of one race does not matter at all, neither does the result of 100 races at the prices you are playing at. Statistically you will have massive losing runs and variance of outcomes at the % probabilities that you are playing at. You may well be correct that a 7-1 shot should be 5-1, but get out a dice and roll it to see how many times you can be wrong about the result. The result doesn't matter, you still got value taking 7-1 on that 5-1 shot. You wouldn't dream of saying to yourself that you priced it wrong (but only because you know the true odds). Post analysis like this will have you questioning your opinions in no time at all and you'll give up. IMO you should compare how much over the odds you are getting against your profit on outlay after a sufficient number of bets to smooth out natural variance. Roll that dice 100 times and see what the profit / loss figures are for each number then look at the best and worst case. That worst case is 100 bets, all at well over the odds and you still lost. You weren't poor at pricing it, it's just variance. Now imagine how bad things can look when you are backing at 16-1, 20-1, etc The hard part on the horses after any number of bets is to determine how much of your result is variance and how much is good/poor knowledge and that imo is the % profit on outlay after a significant number of bets Thoughts?
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Re: subscription form package recommendations. Matt, I don't think it matters which one you go with. It's really down to personal preference and you might want to contact all those recommended for a trial so that you can judge for yourself. If it were me I'd start with the cheapest (R.Post). Twenty years + ago when I started out, Timeform were the best by miles as their perspective form book had more information than the main competitors. These days, the R.Post analysis post race is very similar and I'm sure many of the writers have just as much knowledge as the timeform lot. The bottom line though with all of them is that they are published to a wide audiance and you will have to interpret and make your own decisions. You won't find anything in there that others haven't also found. Your only edge will be from what you see with your own eyes and experience and what you can read between the lines of the publication you go with. That's how to make money, by being correct about something when everyone else is in disagreement (or is just accepting someone else written opinion).
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Re: Have you ever been "knocked back" Hi there. Not at the moment. My thread and bets were losing so I took a break as I was having problems getting the money down too. Can't think why as I was shipping cash at a fair rate! My stakes were being reduced to ridiculously low levels so I moved onto the exchanges. This solved the problem of getting on but I was losing out a lot on the prices as the best price guarantee, which was a very good concession, was gone. Managed to win a lot back though so I only ended 2010 down about £2k which was good considering how badly I started the year. It did prove that I'm best when focussing on non-handicap races though as I pulled in a big profit in 2009 when mainly betting in that type of race. May get back into it in future when I have more time as the exchange markets only really get going near the off for larger stakes and I can't afford the time to track them at the moment.
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Re: Have you ever been "knocked back" Constantly and consistantly. They seem to limit the win amount rather than the stake, so I could get a tenner at 5-2 but only £1 at 25-1. Interestingly a newish account I used last year limited me during a big losing run. When I asked customer services they said it was because of the level of the market, not me specifically. I guess I was just unlucky to always choose a small market at the main meeting of the day in the middle of Summer on a Saturday, so ended up closing that account. I did however hear from a trader with another firm that it was because I was winning and the horses I was backing were shortening significantly in the market.
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Re: subscription form package recommendations. I've used both over the years and didn't really find a lot between them. Like any ratings they are an essential element to consider and the market does take note, particularly of timeform ratings. I found the Raceform ratings were the same as the Racing Post so if you subscribe to that site you're getting the ratings anyway plus lots of other information. The problem with them as stated above is that the market takes note so don't expect to be finding animals any different from the crowd. I found the best way to use them was in questioning ratings that seemed out of line (much improved or much worse) and considering whether or not I agreed.
Serious Help required.....
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Serious Help required..... It's annoying, yes. But not too different from the pre Betfair days really. When they priced up on course it was the bookies on the outer edge of the ring who priced up first to a big overround and accepted only small bets until the main market had formed. Nowadays you have all bookies pricing up early but to very low overrounds so the amounts they'll accept are naturally reduced. I do have sympathy thought as it can be annoying. One thing you do have to ask yourself though is whether you're missing a trick. If your original selection has shortened by the time a decent market has formed then others will have lengthened. Therefore just switch onto one of those. Problem solved